2017 Western Australian state election

Last updated

2017 Western Australian state election
Flag of Western Australia.svg
  2013 11 March 2017 2021  

All 59 seats in the Western Australian Legislative Assembly
and all 36 members in the Western Australian Legislative Council
30 Assembly seats were needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 First partySecond partyThird party
  Mark McGowan headshot.jpg Colin Barnett (formal) crop.jpg Brendon Grylls.jpg
Leader Mark McGowan Colin Barnett Brendon Grylls
Party Labor Liberal National
Leader since23 January 2012 (2012-01-23)6 August 2008 (2008-08-06)9 August 2016 (2016-08-09)
Leader's seat Rockingham Cottesloe Pilbara (lost seat)
Last election21 seats31 seats7 seats
Seats won41 seats13 seats5 seats
Seat changeIncrease2.svg20Decrease2.svg18Decrease2.svg2
Popular vote557,794412,71071,313
Percentage42.20%31.23%5.40%
SwingIncrease2.svg9.07Decrease2.svg15.88Decrease2.svg0.66
2PP 55.5%44.5%
2PP swingIncrease2.svg 12.8%Decrease2.svg 12.8%

Western Australian state election, 2017 results by division.svg
The map on the left shows the first party preference by electorate. The map on the right shows the final two-party preferred vote result by electorate.

Premier before election

Colin Barnett
Liberal

Elected Premier

Mark McGowan
Labor

The 2017 Western Australian state election was held on Saturday 11 March 2017 to elect members to the Parliament of Western Australia, including all 59 seats in the Legislative Assembly and all 36 seats in the Legislative Council. The eight-and-a-half-year two-term incumbent LiberalWA National government, led by Premier Colin Barnett, was defeated in a landslide by the Labor opposition, led by Opposition Leader Mark McGowan.

Contents

Labor won 41 of the 59 seats in the Legislative Assembly—a 12-seat majority. This was WA Labor's strongest performance in a state election at the time, and formed the largest majority government and seat tally in Western Australian parliamentary history until that point. Additionally, Labor exceeded all published opinion polling, winning 55.5 percent of the two-party-preferred vote from a state record landslide 12.8-point two-party swing. [1] [2] [3] It was the worst defeat of a sitting government in Western Australia, as well as one of the worst defeats of a sitting state or territory government since Federation.

Labor also became the largest party in the Legislative Council with 14 of the 36 seats. The Labor government thus required at least five additional votes from non-government members to pass legislation. [3] [4]

Results

Legislative Assembly

Western Australian state election, 11 March 2017 [1] [3] [5] [6]
Legislative Assembly
<< 20132021 >>

Enrolled voters1,593,222
Votes cast1,384,500 Turnout 86.90−2.31
Informal votes62,860Informal4.54−1.46
Summary of votes by party
PartyPrimary votes %SwingSeatsChange
  Labor 557,79442.20+9.0741+20
  Liberal 412,71031.23–15.8813–18
  Greens 117,7238.91+0.510±0
  National 71,3135.40–0.665–2
  One Nation 65,1924.93+4.930±0
  Christians 27,7242.10+0.290±0
  Shooters, Fishers, Farmers 17,3171.31+1.310±0
  Micro Business 13,2111.00+1.000±0
  Matheson for WA 6,1450.47+0.470±0
  Animal Justice 2,8360.21+0.210±0
  Flux the System! 2,1880.17+0.170±0
  Family First 1,4430.11–0.490±0
  Socialist Alliance 6940.05+0.050±0
  Liberal Democrats 5610.04+0.040±0
  Independent 24,3271.84–1.070±0
 Other4620.04+0.040±0
Total1,321,640  59 
Two-party-preferred
  Labor 733,73855.5+12.8
  Liberal 587,35344.5–12.8

The four main media networks covering the election, the ABC, Sky News, Seven News and Nine News, all called the election for Labor within two hours after polls closed. McGowan succeeded Barnett to become the 30th Premier of Western Australia. [7] [8]

By the morning of 12 March, two thirds of votes had been counted and seven lower house seats were still in doubt, showing that Labor had won at least 36 seats, well above the 30 required for a majority, which the ABC predicted would increase to 41. Meanwhile, the Liberals and WA Nationals had won only 10 and five seats respectively, with a further three expected to be retained by the Liberals. [9]

The swing against the government affected traditionally safe seats. Consequently, six government ministers lost their seats in the Legislative Assembly while one lost his seat in the Legislative Council. [10]

The Labor landslide was built primarily on a near-sweep of Perth. Labor took 34 of the capital's 43 seats on a swing of 13.6 points, accounting for nearly all of its majority. By comparison, it had gone into the election holding 17 seats in Perth. According to the ABC's Antony Green, the swing Labor needed to make McGowan premier was not nearly as large as it seemed on paper. Labor theoretically needed a swing of 10 points, but that was mainly because of inflated margins in Liberal-held outer suburban seats. [2]

Seats changing parties

SeatPre-2017SwingPost-2017
PartyMemberMarginMarginMemberParty
Balcatta  Liberal Chris Hatton 7.112.95.8 David Michael Labor 
Belmont  Liberal Glenys Godfrey 1.012.411.4 Cassie Rowe Labor 
Bicton  Liberal Matt Taylor 110.013.02.9 Lisa O'Malley Labor 
Bunbury  Liberal John Castrilli 12.223.010.8 Don Punch Labor 
Burns Beach  Liberal Albert Jacob 211.313.92.5 Mark Folkard Labor 
Darling Range  Liberal Tony Simpson 13.118.95.8 Barry Urban Labor 
Forrestfield  Liberal Nathan Morton 2.211.69.4 Stephen Price Labor 
Jandakot Liberal Joe Francis 18.319.41.0 Yaz Mubarakai Labor
Joondalup Liberal Jan Norberger 10.411.00.6 Emily Hamilton Labor
Kalamunda  Liberal John Day 10.312.72.5 Matthew Hughes Labor 
Kalgoorlie National Wendy Duncan 3.2n/a6.2 Kyran O'Donnell Liberal 
Kingsley Liberal Andrea Mitchell 14.014.70.7 Jessica Stojkovski Labor
Morley  Liberal Ian Britza 4.716.211.4 Amber-Jade Sanderson Labor 
Mount Lawley  Liberal Michael Sutherland 8.912.94.0 Simon Millman Labor 
Murray-Wellington Liberal Murray Cowper 12.013.41.4 Robyn Clarke Labor
Perth  Liberal Eleni Evangel 2.814.611.8 John Carey Labor 
Pilbara National Brendon Grylls 11.513.82.3 Kevin Michel Labor 
Southern River  Liberal Peter Abetz 10.918.87.9 Terry Healy Labor 
Swan Hills  Liberal Frank Alban 3.718.314.5 Jessica Shaw Labor 
Wanneroo  Liberal Paul Miles 11.018.27.3 Sabine Winton Labor 
1 Matt Taylor was the member for the seat of Bateman, but contested Bicton after losing preselection to Dean Nalder, the member for the abolished seat of Alfred Cove.
2 Albert Jacob was the member for the abolished seat of Ocean Reef, but instead contested Burns Beach, a seat containing much of the same territory.
  • Members in italics did not contest their seat at this election.
  • Labor also retained two seats—Collie-Preston and West Swan—which were notionally Liberal-held after the redistribution. The Liberals retained Hillarys, which was being contested by the incumbent MLA Rob Johnson as an independent.

Post-election pendulum

GOVERNMENT SEATS
Marginal
Joondalup Emily Hamilton ALP0.6
Kingsley Jessica Stojkovski ALP0.7
Jandakot Yaz Mubarakai ALP1.0
Murray-Wellington Robyn Clarke ALP1.4
Pilbara Kevin Michel ALP v NAT2.3
Kalamunda Matthew Hughes ALP2.5
Burns Beach Mark Folkard ALP2.5
Bicton Lisa O'Malley ALP2.9
Mount Lawley Simon Millman ALP4.0
Albany Peter Watson ALP v NAT5.1
Darling Range Barry Urban ALP5.8
Balcatta David Michael ALP5.8
Fairly safe
Baldivis Reece Whitby ALP v IND7.2
Wanneroo Sabine Winton ALP7.3
Southern River Terry Healy ALP7.9
Forrestfield Stephen Price ALP9.4
Safe
Bunbury Don Punch ALP10.8
Belmont Cassie Rowe ALP11.4
Morley Amber-Jade Sanderson ALP11.4
Perth John Carey ALP11.8
Kimberley Josie Farrer ALP13.0
Midland Michelle Roberts ALP13.0
Swan Hills Jessica Shaw ALP14.5
Collie-Preston Mick Murray ALP14.7
Willagee Peter Tinley ALP15.5
Thornlie Chris Tallentire ALP15.8
Cockburn Fran Logan ALP15.9
Victoria Park Ben Wyatt ALP16.5
Girrawheen Margaret Quirk ALP16.7
West Swan Rita Saffioti ALP17.1
Maylands Lisa Baker ALP17.9
Mandurah David Templeman ALP18.0
Cannington Bill Johnston ALP18.1
Kwinana Roger Cook ALP18.1
Mirrabooka Janine Freeman ALP19.2
Butler John Quigley ALP19.5
Bassendean Dave Kelly ALP21.5
Fremantle Simone McGurk ALP23.1
Rockingham Mark McGowan ALP23.4
Warnbro Paul Papalia ALP23.7
Armadale Tony Buti ALP25.2
NON-GOVERNMENT SEATS
Marginal
Dawesville Zak Kirkup LIB0.7
Geraldton Ian Blayney LIB1.3
Hillarys Peter Katsambanis LIB4.1
Riverton Mike Nahan LIB4.4
Scarborough Liza Harvey LIB5.6
Fairly safe
Kalgoorlie Kyran O'Donnell LIB6.2
South Perth John McGrath LIB7.1
Nedlands Bill Marmion LIB8.3
Carine Tony Krsticevic LIB9.0
Bateman Dean Nalder LIB9.5
Safe
Churchlands Sean L'Estrange LIB13.2
Cottesloe Colin Barnett LIB13.3
Vasse Libby Mettam LIB14.7
CROSS BENCH SEATS
North West Central Vince Catania NAT v ALP9.5
Warren-Blackwood Terry Redman NAT v ALP13.4
Moore Shane Love NAT v LIB13.9
Roe Peter Rundle NAT v LIB14.4
Central Wheatbelt Mia Davies NAT v ALP22.6

Legislative Council

Map of seats won for each party per electoral division. Western Australia Legislative Council Map 2017.svg
Map of seats won for each party per electoral division.

Western Australian state election, 11 March 2017 [11] [12]
Legislative Council
<< 20132021 >>

Enrolled voters1,593,222
Votes cast1,386,155 Turnout 87.00−2.26
Informal votes37,480Informal2.70−0.13
Summary of votes by party
PartyPrimary votes %SwingSeatsChange
  Labor 544,93840.41+7.9014+3
  Liberal 360,23526.71−20.919–8
  Greens 116,0418.60+0.394+2
  One Nation 110,4808.19+8.193+3
  National 59,7764.43−0.454–1
  Shooters, Fishers, Farmers 31,9242.37+0.591±0
  Christians 26,2091.94−0.010±0
  Liberal Democrats 23,8481.77+1.771+1
  Animal Justice 14,8381.10+1.100±0
  Family First 11,2790.84−0.530±0
  Daylight Saving 9,2090.68+0.680±0
  Micro Business 7,4840.55+0.550±0
  Flux the System! 5,9340.44+0.440±0
  Matheson for WA 5,2700.39+0.390±0
  Fluoride Free WA 4,3270.32+0.320±0
  Socialist Alliance 1,3670.10+0.100±0
  Independent 15,5161.15−0.530±0
Total1,348,675  36 

Labor became the largest party in the Legislative Council with 14 of the 36 seats. The Labor government will require at least five additional votes from non-government members to pass legislation. [4] [13]

On 4 April, the Western Australian Electoral Commission conducted a recount of 2013 election results to fill two casual vacancies for the remainder of the 2013–17 term caused by the resignation and subsequent election to the Legislative Assembly of Amber-Jade Sanderson (Labor) in East Metropolitan and Peter Katsambanis (Liberal) in North Metropolitan. [14] The vacancies were filled by Bill Leadbetter (Labor) and Elise Irwin (Liberal), who will first sit in the Legislative Council on 11 May 2017. [15]

Date of election

Barnaby C, protecting the Carnaby's black cockatoo habitat and an Anti Roe 8 supporter appeared at a number of media events during the election campaign WAPol 110317 gnangarra-101.JPG
Barnaby C, protecting the Carnaby's black cockatoo habitat and an Anti Roe 8 supporter appeared at a number of media events during the election campaign

On 3 November 2011, the Government of Western Australia introduced fixed four-year terms for the Legislative Assembly, with the elections to be held on the second Saturday in March. [16] [17] [18] The first election under the new law was the 2013 election. Previously, under electoral reforms of the Burke Government in 1987, four-year maximum terms were adopted for the Legislative Assembly, and fixed four-year terms for the Legislative Council. [19]

Seats held

Lower house

At the 2013 election, Labor won 21 seats, the Liberals won 31 seats and the Nationals won 7 seats. No seats were won by independents.

On 15 April 2016, the Liberal member for Hillarys, Rob Johnson, resigned from the Liberals to sit as an independent, leaving the government with 30 seats in the lower house.

Upper house

At the 2013 election, the Liberals won 17 seats, Labor won 11 seats, the Nationals won five seats, the Greens won two seats and the Shooters and Fishers won one seat.

Western Australia's Legislative Council is divided into six regions. Three are based in Perth, while three are rural. Each region elects six members to the Legislative Council. These areas are not of similar population sizes, with rural areas receiving from one and a half to about six times the effective membership of the metropolitan regions.

The Western Australian rural population dropped from about 12.1% to 10.7% of the state's enrolled electors after the 2008 election. Election analyst Antony Green predicted this would make it more difficult for the Liberals or Labor (who typically perform better in Perth than rural areas) to increase their presence within the Legislative Council. [20]

Redistribution

A redistribution of electoral boundaries for the lower house was completed on 27 November 2015. This resulted in a net gain of one seat for the Liberals from Labor. The Liberal seats of Alfred Cove, Eyre and Ocean Reef, the Labor seat of Gosnells and the National seat of Wagin were abolished. Five new seats were created (or re-created): the notionally Liberal seats of Bicton (mostly replacing Alfred Cove) and Burns Beach (mostly replacing Ocean Reef), the notionally Labor seats of Baldivis (created from parts of Kwinana and Warnbro) and Thornlie (replacing Gosnells), and the notionally National seat of Roe (merging Wagin and Eyre). The Labor seats of Collie-Preston and West Swan became notionally Liberal. [21]

Retiring MPs

Members who did not re-nominate at the 2017 election:

Liberal

National

Pre-election pendulum

The following Mackerras Pendulums work by lining up all of the seats according to the percentage point margin post-election on a two-candidate-preferred basis, [28] grouped as marginal, safe etc. as defined by the Australian Electoral Commission. [29]

This pendulum takes the redistribution into account. One sitting member, retiring Wagin Nationals MP Terry Waldron, does not appear in this pendulum: his seat was combined with Eyre to form Roe, a seat with a National margin that will also be contested by Eyre Liberal MP Graham Jacobs, who is listed as the defending member below. Two Liberal members, Dean Nalder (Alfred Cove, now renamed Bicton) and Matt Taylor (Bateman), were contesting each other's seats; this is reflected below. Retiring members are listed in italics.

Liberal/National seats
Marginal
West Swan Rita Saffioti LIB0.9 ppt
Belmont Glenys Godfrey LIB1.0 ppt
Forrestfield Nathan Morton LIB2.2 ppt
Perth Eleni Evangel LIB2.8 ppt
Collie-Preston Mick Murray LIB2.9 ppt
Kalgoorlie Wendy Duncan NAT3.2 ppt v LIB
Swan Hills Frank Alban LIB3.7 ppt
Morley Ian Britza LIB4.7 ppt
Moore Shane Love NAT5.9 ppt v LIB
Fairly safe
Balcatta Chris Hatton LIB7.1 ppt
Warren-Blackwood Terry Redman NAT7.2 ppt v LIB
Central Wheatbelt Mia Davies NAT8.9 ppt v LIB
Mount Lawley Michael Sutherland LIB8.9 ppt
Safe
Bicton Matt Taylor LIB10.0 ppt
Kalamunda John Day LIB10.3 ppt
Joondalup Jan Norberger LIB10.4 ppt
North West Central Vince Catania NAT10.5 ppt v LIB
Geraldton Ian Blayney LIB10.9 ppt v NAT
Southern River Peter Abetz LIB10.9 ppt
Wanneroo Paul Miles LIB11.0 ppt
Burns Beach Albert Jacob LIB11.3 ppt
Pilbara Brendon Grylls NAT11.5 ppt
Murray-Wellington Murray Cowper LIB12.0 ppt
Bunbury John Castrilli LIB12.2 ppt
Riverton Mike Nahan LIB12.7 ppt
Dawesville Kim Hames LIB12.7 ppt
Darling Range Tony Simpson LIB13.1 ppt
Kingsley Andrea Mitchell LIB14.0 ppt
Hillarys Rob Johnson LIB16.0 ppt
Roe Graham Jacobs NAT16.7 ppt v LIB
Scarborough Liza Harvey LIB17.3 ppt
Jandakot Joe Francis LIB18.3 ppt
Carine Tony Krsticevic LIB18.3 ppt
Nedlands Bill Marmion LIB19.1 ppt
Very safe
Churchlands Sean L'Estrange LIB20.0 ppt
South Perth John McGrath LIB20.0 ppt
Cottesloe Colin Barnett LIB21.1 ppt
Vasse Libby Mettam LIB21.2 ppt
Bateman Dean Nalder LIB23.1 ppt
Labor seats
Marginal
Midland Michelle Roberts ALP0.5 ppt
Butler John Quigley ALP1.0 ppt
Albany Peter Watson ALP1.0 ppt
Thornlie Chris Tallentire ALP1.8 ppt
Cannington Bill Johnston ALP2.1 ppt
Willagee Peter Tinley ALP2.5 ppt
Maylands Lisa Baker ALP2.7 ppt
Girrawheen Margaret Quirk ALP2.8 ppt
Victoria Park Ben Wyatt ALP4.0 ppt
Kwinana Roger Cook ALP4.3 ppt
Cockburn Fran Logan ALP4.6 ppt
Mirrabooka Janine Freeman ALP4.6 ppt
Bassendean Dave Kelly ALP5.1 ppt
Kimberley Josie Farrer ALP5.1 ppt
Fairly safe
Baldivis new seatALP6.4 ppt
Mandurah David Templeman ALP7.7 ppt
Armadale Tony Buti ALP9.6 ppt
Safe
Warnbro Paul Papalia ALP10.6 ppt
Rockingham Mark McGowan ALP13.2 ppt
Fremantle Simone McGurk ALP15.4 ppt

Opinion polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate data of all voting intention polling since the 2013 Western Australian state election. Local regression trends for each party are shown as solid lines.

Voting intention

Legislative Assembly (lower house) polling
DateFirmPrimary vote TPP vote
LIBNATALPGRNOTHLIBALP
11 March 2017Galaxy (Exit Poll) [30] 33%6%41%6%14%45.5%54.5%
9 March 2017ReachTEL [31] 33.9%6.0%41.8%6.5%11.8%46%54%
6–9 March 2017Newspoll [31] 32%5%41%7%15%46%54%
1–3 March 2017Galaxy [32] 31%5%40%8%16%46%54%
27 February 2017ReachTEL [33] 34.6%6.8%35.2%10.7%12.7%48%52%
February 2017ReachTEL [34] 35.4%8.4%35%6%15.1%50%50%
January 2017Newspoll [35] 30%5%38%9%18%46%54%
November 2016Newspoll [36] 34%6%41%9%10%48%52%
October 2016ReachTEL [37] 35.9%6.1%36.7%7.7%13.6%48%52%
October 2016Roy Morgan [38] 34%5%36.5%12.5%12%47.5%52.5%
August 2016Roy Morgan [39] 34.5%6.5%35.5%12.5%11%49%51%
May 2016Roy Morgan [40] 36.5%7%34%12.5%10%51%49%
Mar–May 2016Newspoll [41] 40%42%11%7%46%54%
March 2016Roy Morgan [42] 33.5%8%37%14.5%7%48%52%
Mar 2016ReachTEL [43] 37%5%39%13%5%44%56%
Oct–Dec 2015Newspoll [44] 37%5%42%10%6%47%53%
9–15 Oct 2015Morgan [45] 37.5%4.5%32%13%13%51.5%48.5%
28–31 Aug 2015Morgan35%7%34%15%9%50%50%
Apr–Jun 2015Newspoll33%7%33%14%13%48%52%
Jan–Mar 2015Newspoll34%6%35%14%11%48%52%
Oct–Dec 2014Newspoll34%8%33%15%10%50%50%
Jul–Sep 2014Newspoll35%6%31%15%13%50%50%
Apr–Jun 2014Newspoll34%6%27%17%16%50%50%
Oct–Dec 2013Newspoll36%8%33%13%10%51%49%
2013 election 47.1%6.1%33.1%8.4%5.3%57.3%42.7%
4–7 Mar 2013Newspoll48%6%32%8%6%59.5%40.5%
Better premier polling^
Liberal
Barnett
Labor
McGowan
6–9 Mar 2017 [31] 37%45%
Oct 2016 [36] 29%47%
Oct 2016 [38] 41%59%
Sep 2016 (RM) [39] 43%57%
Mar–May 2016 [41] 32%46%
Mar 2016 (RT) [43] 39%61%
Oct–Dec 2015 [44] 36%41%
Apr–Jun 201537%43%
Jan–Mar 201538%44%
Oct–Dec 201439%40%
Jul–Sep 201438%41%
Apr–Jun 201436%43%
Oct–Dec 201337%43%
2013 election
4–7 Mar 201352%31%
Polling conducted by Roy Morgan Research (RM), ReachTEL (RT),
or Newspoll (all others).
^ Remainder were "uncommitted" to either leader.
Satisfaction polling^
BarnettMcGowan
SatisfiedDissatisfiedSatisfiedDissatisfied
6–9 Mar 2017 [31] 34%57%45%40%
Nov 2016 [36] 28%61%46%33%
Mar–May 2016 [41] 31%58%51%28%
Oct–Dec 2015 [44] 33%54%47%32%
Apr–Jun 201536%57%49%33%
Jan–Mar 201538%53%53%28%
Oct–Dec 201437%49%48%27%
Jul–Sep 201432%56%47%29%
Apr–Jun 201434%56%49%31%
Oct–Dec 201334%54%51%22%
2013 election
4–7 Mar 201351%36%49%29%
Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian .
^Remainder were "uncommitted" to either leader.

Newspaper endorsements

NewspaperEndorsement
The Australian Liberal [46]
The Australian Financial Review
The Sunday Times Labor
The West Australian Labor [47]

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References

  1. 1 2 Labor 55.5% 2PP vote and +12.8-point 2PP swing sourced from Antony Green's temporary estimate within provided ABC link published 30 March 2017, which states "The two-party-preferred count is based on estimates for Baldivis, Moore and Roe. – Final 2017 WA Election Results plus a New Electoral Pendulum: Antony Green ABC 30 March 2017 Archived 21 May 2017 at the Wayback Machine
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