2024 Liberal Democratic Party (Japan) leadership election

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2024 Liberal Democratic Party leadership election
Liberal Democratic Party of Japan logo.svg
←  2021 September 2024
Incumbent President

Fumio Kishida



The 2024Liberal Democratic Party presidential election will be held on September 2024 to elect the next president of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan for a 3-year term. The winner of the election will effectively become the Prime Minister of Japan and will lead the party in the next general election (if it takes place after the leadership election) and the next House of Councillors election in July 2025.

Contents

The leadership election will take place amidst the LDP's controversy over its affiliation with the Unification Church new religious movement following Shinzo Abe's assassination in 2022, an ongoing slush fund scandal involving the conservative Seiwa Seisaku Kenkyūkai (Seiwakai) and Shisuikai factions, and other issues which has led to incumbent president Fumio Kishida becoming the most unpopular prime minister since the LDP's return to power in 2012. [1] [2] [3]

Background

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida reshuffled his second cabinet in 2023 to include more women and keep potential political rivals in key roles. Fumio Kishida Cabinet 20230913 side.jpg
Prime Minister Fumio Kishida reshuffled his second cabinet in 2023 to include more women and keep potential political rivals in key roles.

Following the resignation of party president and prime minister Yoshihude Suga, former foreign minister Fumio Kishida was elected President of the LDP in 2021, defeating Administrative Reform and Regulatory Reform minister Taro Kono in a second round runoff, becoming the prime minister on 4 October 2021. [4]

Assassination of Shinzo Abe and ties to the Unification Church

Following Shinzo Abe's assassination in 2022, the Unification Church (UC) new religious movement was shown to have significant political influence in the LDP, and the popularity for the party, as well as Kishida's approval rating decreased. [5] Kishida reshuffled his cabinet on 10 August 2022 in an effort to remove cabinet ministers associated with the UC in order to regain public trust in his government. [5] [6]

Kishida reshuffled his cabinet once again on 13 September 2023 as his premiership continued to lose public support. The reshuffle was highlighted for its comparatively high proportion of women in official roles and the inclusion of members of opposing factions in high-ranking roles such as Taro Kono and Toshimitsu Motegi. [7]

Slush fund scandal

In November 2023, it was discovered that members of the conservative Seiwa Seisaku Kenkyūkai (Seiwakai) and Shisuikai factions failed to report over JP¥600 million (US$4.06 million) in campaign funds, which they had instead placed in unlawful slush funds. This led to a scandal concerning the misuse of campaign funds by these members. [8] [9]

Amidst the escalating scandal, Kishida declared on 13 December 2023 that he was dismissing Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno, Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Yasutoshi Nishimura, Minister of Internal Affairs and Communications Junji Suzuki, and Minister of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries Ichiro Miyashita. Hiroyuki Miyazawa, the deputy minister of defense, was also removed from office. All the expelled officials belonged to the Seiwakai faction. [10] [11] [12] The opposition Constitutional Democratic Party submitted a vote of no confidence against Matsuno and the entire Kishida's cabinet as a result of the scandal. [13] [14] Although both motions failed due to the LDP's majority in the National Diet, it was the closest no confidence vote in decades due to the rare unity between Japan's opposition parties in voting in favor of the vote. [15]

The first arrests took place on 7 January 2024, with former deputy minister of education Yoshitaki Ikeda and Kazuhiro Kakinuma, his assistant, being accused of concealing ¥48 million that the Seiwakai earned between 2018 and 2022. The National Police Agency justified their arrest by claiming that there was a chance of evidence destruction. Ikeda was expelled from the LDP after details of the arrests were made public. [16]

On 7 December 2023, Kishida announced his resignation as leader of the moderate Kōchikai faction, which he led since 2012 and announced he will leave the faction due to the scandal. A month later on January 2024, Kōchikai, along with Seiwakai and Shisuikai were dissolved, leaving Motegi's Heisei Kenkyūkai and Tarō Asō's Shikōkai as the only remaining factions left in the party. [17] [18]

Kishida Cabinet approval ratings since 2021. Cabinet Approval for the Kishida Cabinet (2021-Present).svg
Kishida Cabinet approval ratings since 2021.

Continued unpopularity and calls for resignation

Kishida's approval ratings continued to fall in the aftermath of the scandal, dropping to 23% on 13 December 2023, marking the lowest rating for any Prime Minister since the LDP's return to power in 2012. By 22 December, his approval ratings had further decreased to 17%. According to a Mainichi Shimbun poll conducted on 18 December 2023, 79% of respondents disapprove of Kishida's performance as Prime Minister, the highest disapproval rate since the end of World War II. [19] [20] [21]

Concerns emerged about Kishida's ability to lead the party to victory in the upcoming general election, with the scandal leading to speculations that the LDP could potentially lose power in favor of a CDP-led coalition. [22] Ex-Seiwakai member and House of Representatives member Takatori Shuichi said that he does not believe the party can maintain a majority in the National Diet if Kishida is reelected as party president, while Kishida's predecessor Suga on 23 June called for the resignation of Kishida, stating that the party would lose power if "things continue like this". [23] [24] Mainichi Shimbun reports that the party could split between pro-Kishida and anti-Kishida forces ahead of the election, with some supporting Suga's criticism of Kishida. [25]

Campaign

Prelude

Fumio Kishida and Taro Kono in June 2024. Fumio Kishida and Taro Kono June 2024.jpg
Fumio Kishida and Taro Kono in June 2024.

Sanae Takaichi on 18 June 2024 announced that she will be publishing a book on economic security titled "Japan's Economic Security" (日本の経済安全保障), to be published on 8th July, the second anniversary of Shinzo Abe's assassination. There are views within the party that the book is an early campaign manifesto for her presidential run. [26] On 30 June The Asahi Shimbun reported that Sanae Takaichi had decided to run for the presidential election. [27] She denied this in a post on Twitter, and later declined to comment on 2 July. [28]

On 26 June, Taro Kono, who made it to the second round in 2021, conveyed his desire to run for the presidency to LDP Vice President and his faction boss Taro Aso, during dinner. [29] Governor of Gunma Ichita Yamamoto announced his intentions to endorse Kono in a press conference the following day. [30]

Shigeru Ishiba on 28 June informed his political allies of his intentions to run for the presidency and has begun making "concrete arrangements". [31]

Prime Minister Kishida began a nationwide tour on 29 June, first visiting Yamanashi Prefecture, which has political ties to his former faction, Kōchikai. [32] [33] Media outlets analyzed the tour as a campaign tour for the presidential election. [34]

On 2 July the Yukan Fuji reported that Shinjiro Koizumi may be preparing to run for LDP president, with a goal of making it to the second round runoff. [35] While visiting Fukushima Prefecture for a surfing competition, Koizumi said he was "carefully considering" a run for the party presidency. [36]

LDP Secretary-General Toshimitsu Motegi visited Fumio Kishida's home prefecture of Hiroshima on 6 July. [37]

Candidates

Publicly expressed interest

Potential candidates

Based on opinion polls [48] [49] [50] [51] [52]


Opinion polls

LOESS curve of the polling for the 2024 leadership election with a 7-day average. Opinion Polling for the 2024 LDP Leadership Election.svg
LOESS curve of the polling for the 2024 leadership election with a 7-day average.
Fieldwork datePolling firmSample size[ vague ] Shigeru Ishiba Shinjirō Koizumi Taro Kono Sanae Takaichi Yoshihide Suga Yōko Kamikawa Fumio Kishida Seiko Noda Toshimitsu Motegi OthersNOT/
UD/NA
6–7 Jul 2024 JNN 1,0212416.69.35.85.84.92.71.40.93.1 [lower-alpha 1] 25.5
22–23 Jun 2024 SSRC 2,043181155755––9 [lower-alpha 2] 35
22–23 Jun 2024 Mainichi 1,05720759685–1–39
22–23 Jun 2024 Kyodo News 1,05626.212.17.86.8–7.86.62.42.42.8 [lower-alpha 3] 25.1
21–23 Jun 2024 Yomiuri/NNN 1,023231567866313 [lower-alpha 4] 22 [lower-alpha 5]
15–16 Jun 2024 Gunosy for Senkyo Dot Com 1,00013.65.86.56.7–3.33.2–0.46.6 [lower-alpha 6] 53.9
15–16 Jun 2024 JX for Senkyo Dot Com 98423.29.94.88.5–8.67.8–0.910.4 [lower-alpha 7] 25.9
15–16 Jun 2024 Sankei/FNN 1,01316.414.68.46.35.85.64.30.90.42 [lower-alpha 8] 35.3 [lower-alpha 9]
15–16 Jun 2024 ANN 1,02623188657331125
18–19 May 2024 ANN 1,04523187659411125
17–19 May 2024 Yomiuri/NNN 1,0332216107674124 [lower-alpha 10] 21 [lower-alpha 11]
4–5 May 2024 JNN 1,01324.214.18.46.177.84.51.80.310.5 [lower-alpha 12] 15.3
13–14 Apr 2024 ANN 1,037211886595211 [lower-alpha 13] 24
22–24 Mar 2024 Yomiuri/NNN 1,020221585697113 [lower-alpha 14] 23 [lower-alpha 15]
16–17 Mar 2024 ANN 1,0312218965114211 [lower-alpha 16] 21
16–17 Mar 2024 SSRC 2,044171166683––8 [lower-alpha 17] 35
8–11 Mar 2024 Jiji Press 1,16018.612.16.44.75.75.92.30.90.42.6 [lower-alpha 18] 40.4
9–10 Mar 2024 Kyodo News 1,04322.215.47.98.3–10.84.91.80.93.3 [lower-alpha 19] 24.5
24–25 Feb 2024 ANN 1,0342317964112311 [lower-alpha 20] 34
17–18 Feb 2024 SSRC 2,0431710767103––7 [lower-alpha 21] 33
17–18 Feb 2024 Mainichi 1,02425979–12121–34
16–18 Feb 2024 Yomiuri/NNN 1,0832117106484222 [lower-alpha 22] 12
26–28 Jan 2024 Nikkei/TV Tokyo 9692215107753226 [lower-alpha 23] 17
8–11 Dec 2023 Jiji Press 2,00015168.856.23.11.6––140.3
18–19 Nov 2023 Asahi 1,0861516138––7–11 [lower-alpha 24] 36
11–12 Nov 2023 Sankei Shimbun/FNN N/A18.21611.95.44.24.32.5––5.232.3
23–24 Sep 2023 ANN 1,01818151457–5333 [lower-alpha 25] 22
1–8 Jul 2023 Asahi 2,113151613510–102–3 [lower-alpha 26] 27
3–4 Dec 2022 JNN 1,22711–1957–6221 [lower-alpha 27] 39
19–20 Nov 2022 SSRC for Mainichi 3,0695.9414.74.74.4–15.8––6.4 [lower-alpha 28] 17
17–18 Sep 2022 SSRC 6425.12.113.65.13.4–10.3––8 [lower-alpha 29] 20.9

Preferred outcome

Fieldwork datePolling firmSample sizeKishida continues as PMElection of new PMUnd. / no answerLead
22–23 Jun 2024 SSRC 2,0438632934

Notes

  1. ↑ Yoshimasa Hayashi: 1.5%; Katsunobu Katō: 0.8%; Takayuki Kobayashi: 0.8%
  2. ↑ Another government politician: 3%; An opposition politician: 6%
  3. ↑ Another MP: 1.9%; Yoshimasa Hayashi: 1%; Katsunobu Katō: 0.9%
  4. ↑ Katsunobu Katō: 1%; Takayuki Kobayashi: 1%; Yoshimasa Hayashi: 1%
  5. ↑ None of these: 11%
  6. ↑ Another MP: 6%; Yoshimasa Hayashi: 0.6%
  7. ↑ Another MP: 8%; Yoshimasa Hayashi: 2.4%
  8. ↑ Kenta Izumi (CDP): 1.7%; Yoshimasa Hayashi: 0.4%; Katsunobu Katō: 0.3%
  9. ↑ None of these: 27.7%
  10. ↑ Yūko Obuchi: 2%; Yoshimasa Hayashi: 2%
  11. ↑ None of these: 11%
  12. ↑ Another MP: 8.2%; Katsunobu Katō: 1.4%; Yoshimasa Hayashi: 0.9%
  13. ↑ Another MP: 1%
  14. ↑ Yūko Obuchi: 2%; Yoshimasa Hayashi: 1%
  15. ↑ None of these: 15%
  16. ↑ Another MP: 1%
  17. ↑ Another government politician: 2%; An opposition politician: 6%
  18. ↑ Yoshimasa Hayashi: 1.1%; Yūko Obuchi: 0.7%; Yasutoshi Nishimura: 0.4%; Kōichi Hagiuda: 0.3%; Katsunobu Katō: 0.1%
  19. ↑ Yoshimasa Hayashi: 0.5%; Yasutoshi Nishimura: 0.3%; Another MP: 2.5%
  20. ↑ Yasutoshi Nishimura: 1%
  21. ↑ Another government politician: 2%; An opposition politician: 5%
  22. ↑ Yūko Obuchi: 2%
  23. ↑ Yoshimasa Hayashi: 3%; Yūko Obuchi: 2%; Another MP: 1%
  24. ↑ Yoshimasa Hayashi: 1%
  25. ↑ Yasutoshi Nishimura: 2%; Another MP: 1%
  26. ↑ Yasutoshi Nishimura: 2%; Another MP: 1%
  27. ↑ Yoshimasa Hayashi: 1%
  28. ↑ Tōru Hashimoto (NIK): 2.1%; Hirofumi Yoshimura (NIK): 1.9%; Taro Yamamoto (REI): 1.4%
  29. ↑ Tōru Hashimoto (NIK): 4.7%; Taro Yamamoto (REI): 3.3%

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  37. ↑ "「ポスト岸田」の行方は 茂木幹事長、石破元幹事長、小泉元環境大臣が地方行脚". テレ朝news (in Japanese). Retrieved 2024-07-06.
  38. ↑ "岸田首相「自分がやめて問題解決するならいつでもやめる」発言に「何なの？この開き直り」SNSに集まる批判（SmartFLASH）". Yahoo!ニュース (in Japanese). Retrieved 2024-01-03.
  39. ↑ "岸田首相2024年の"納豆級"粘りどこまで 9月総裁選までに待ち受ける3つの関門 解散の行方は（FNNプライムオンライン）". Yahoo!ニュース (in Japanese). Retrieved 2024-01-03.
  40. ↑ 日本放送協会 (2023-11-02). "自民 茂木幹事長 総裁選に岸田首相立候補なら立候補しない考え | NHK". NHKニュース. Retrieved 2023-12-16.
  41. ↑ 日本放送協会. "高市経済安保相 党内で勉強会立ち上げ "総裁選へ足場固めか"". NHK政治マガジン (in Japanese). Retrieved 2023-12-16.
  42. ↑ INC, SANKEI DIGITAL (2024-01-02). "石破氏、自民総裁選へ「自問自答」 出馬の可能性に含み". 産経ニュース (in Japanese). Retrieved 2024-01-03.
  43. ↑ "石破氏「総裁選はフルスペック」 自身の立候補「答えるべきでない」：朝日新聞デジタル". 朝日新聞デジタル (in Japanese). 2024-01-01. Retrieved 2024-01-03.
  44. ↑ "野田聖子氏、総裁選の出馬に意欲". Yahoo!ニュース (in Japanese). Retrieved 2024-01-29.
  45. ↑ INC, SANKEI DIGITAL (2024-06-21). "「期待はありがたい」 上川陽子氏、9月の自民党総裁選出馬に言及せず". 産経新聞：産経ニュース (in Japanese). Retrieved 2024-06-26.
  46. ↑ "河野太郎氏、自民総裁選出馬に意欲 麻生太郎氏に伝達". 毎日新聞 (in Japanese). Retrieved 2024-06-26.
  47. ↑ 産経新聞 (2024-07-01). "自民・小林鷹之氏が将来の首相「目指す」、9月の総裁選に含み 月刊「正論」インタビュー". 産経新聞：産経ニュース (in Japanese). Retrieved 2024-07-02.
  48. ↑ "首相適任者、小泉氏16%で最多 石破・河野氏続く、岸田氏7位 時事世論調査（時事通信）". Yahoo!ニュース (in Japanese). Retrieved 2023-12-16.
  49. ↑ "首相適任者、小泉氏16%で最多 石破・河野氏続く、岸田氏7位—時事世論調査：時事ドットコム". 時事ドットコム (in Japanese). 15 December 2023. Retrieved 2023-12-16.
  50. ↑ "「首相にふさわしいのは」小泉氏が16%でトップ 朝日世論調査：朝日新聞デジタル". 朝日新聞デジタル (in Japanese). 2023-11-19. Retrieved 2023-12-16.
  51. ↑ 悠亮, 大島 (2023-12-11). "【産経・FNN合同世論調査】次の首相は小泉氏・石破氏・河野氏の「小石河」が上位独占、上川陽子外相は5位". 産経ニュース (in Japanese). Retrieved 2023-12-16.
  52. ↑ "世論調査|報道ステーション|テレビ朝日". www.tv-asahi.co.jp (in Japanese). Retrieved 2023-12-16.
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