2024 Velyka Novosilka offensive

Last updated
2024 Velyka Novosilka offensive
Part of the eastern and southern front of the Russian invasion of Ukraine
Volnovakha Raion shelling.jpg
Destroyed building in Volnovakha Raion, July 2023
Date11 November 2024 – present
(1 month)
Location
Velyka Novosilka settlement hromada, Volnovakha Raion, Donetsk Oblast and Malynivka rural hromada, Polohy Raion, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Ukraine [a]
Status Ongoing
Territorial
changes		 Russia captures 3 villages [b] in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts.
Belligerents
Flag of Russia.svg  Russia Flag of Ukraine.svg  Ukraine
Units involved

Flag of the Russian Federation Ground Forces.svg Russian Ground Forces

Naval ensign of Russia.svg Russian Navy

Flag Glavnogo razvedyvatel'nogo upravleniia GSh VS RF.png GRU

Ensign of the Ukrainian Ground Forces.svg Ukrainian Ground Forces

Ensign of the National Guard of Ukraine.svg National Guard of Ukraine

Territorial Defence Forces branch SSI.svg Territorial Defense Forces

Strength
Per Ukraine
~ 40,000 soldiers [14] 		Unknown
Casualties and losses

Unknown


Ukraine Claim:
50 killed or wounded (12-18 Nov) [15]
50 wounded (12-18 Nov) [15]
2 captured [13]

6 captured [c] [16]


Russia Claim:
230 killed [17] [18]
4 2S3 Akatsiya [18] [17]
2 MaxxPro AFV [18]
1 M109 howitzer [18]
2 civilians killed. [19]
At least 95% of the population, or approximately 4,900 residents, have been displaced. [20]

A military engagement between the Russian Armed Forces and Ukrainian Armed Forces for control over the Ukrainian town of Velyka Novosilka and the nearby area began in November 2024.

Contents

Background

On March 12, 2022, after 15 days of fighting, Russian troops captured the nearby city of Volnovakha, located on a highway between Donetsk and Mariupol. [21] [22] The Ukrainian troops then retreated to the town of Velyka Novosilka. Two days later, fighting began in the settlement.[ citation needed ]

Early capture efforts (2022)

Between March 14 and 16, Russian forces achieved significant progress in their offensive originating from Volnovakha, breaking through the eastern sector of the Velyka Novosilka line. This advance included capturing several villages such as Volodymyrivka, Blahodatne, Mykilske, Pavlivka, and Vodiane. [23] By March 16, the Ukrainian General Staff confirmed that Russian troops had launched an offensive on Velyka Novosilka, reporting some gains. [24] Throughout April, Russian troops repeatedly shelled residential areas in Velyka Novosilka, intensifying the conflict. [25] [26]

Stalemate in the region

Following the initial offensive, a prolonged stalemate ensued. By mid-May, the U.S. Department of Defense reported that Russian forces near Velyka Novosilka appeared focused on completing the Siege of Mariupol rather than pressing further assaults on the town. [27] Despite renewed Russian efforts to advance on August 24 and 31, Ukrainian forces successfully repelled these attacks. [28] [29] By December, reports of Russian troop buildups south of the town indicated reconnaissance missions rather than a well-prepared offensive, reflecting their limited operational capabilities. [30] Concurrently, attempts to capture the nearby city of Vuhledar resulted in severe Russian losses and limited progress, further contributing to the deadlock. [31] [32] [33]

Ukrainian counteroffensive (2023)

Between June and October 2023, Ukrainian forces made significant strides in southern Donetsk Oblast during their counteroffensive against Russian positions. On June 4 they achieved limited gains around Rivnopil and southwest of Velyka Novosilka, sparking speculation about a broader counteroffensive. [34] By June 11, Ukrainian troops had recaptured Neskuchne, Blahodatne, and Makarivka, overcoming entrenched Russian defenses, including fortified positions in schools and near rivers. [35] [36] [37] The Ukrainian military claimed Russian forces destroyed a dam on the Mokri Yaly river to slow down their advance. [38]

At the late of June, fighting escalated around Rivnopil, which Ukraine claimed had been liberated on June 24, [39] but this was only confirmed on June 26. [40] Operations continued into July, focusing on Staromaiorske, where Ukrainian forces faced extremely difficult conditions, including mine-filled roads and systematic defensive strategies employed by the Russian side. On July 26, Staromaiorske was successfully recaptured, a significant achievement praised by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. [41] [42] In August, attention shifted to Urozhaine, considered a "stronghold of Russia." After intense fighting and heavy resistance, [43] Urozhaine was liberated on August 16, [44] with retreating Russian forces suffering heavy losses. [45]

Second Russian offensive (2024)

On June 10, 2024, Russian advances north of the village of Staromaiorske reportedly resulted in the capture of the entire settlement. [46] [47] Subsequently, on July 13, Russian forces successfully took control of Urozhaine. [48] On July 18, Ukrainian authorities confirmed that their forces had withdrawn from the village, claiming that, despite Russian casualties amounting to over a hundred to several hundred fatalities "each day," their defensive positions had been destroyed, along with the village itself. [49] [50]

Battle

The capture of Vuhledar by the Russian army on 1 October resulted in a renewed opening of the southeastern Donetsk front. Vuhledar functioned as a Ukrainian stronghold in this section of the frontline for over two years. With the fall of this city Russian forces had the ability of starting advances towards Velyka Novosilka, which is located about 30km to the west. [51] One week later, the Russian Defence Ministry reported that the village of Zolota Nyva was under Russian control. [52]

In early November, the Russian military began assault operations to the west of Velyka Novosilka around the Zaporizhzhia – Donetsk border, retaking the settlement of Rivnopil on November 13. [53] [54] [55] The following week, Russian forces intensified their assault efforts towards Velyka Novosilka from the east. At the same time, Russian forces also expanded the front to the northeast reaching the outskirts of Rozdolne, threatening to cut off the Velyka Novosilka – Bahatyr – Pokrovsk road. [56] [57] With these flanking maneuvers from the east, Russian assault groups attempt to bypass the Ukrainian fortifications, which are mainly built and aimed to stop attacks from the south. [58]

Russian forces entered the warehouses located southeast of Velyka Novosilka on 23 November, bringing the frontline up to the outskirts of the town, [59] and subsequently captured the buildings on 24 November. Meanwhile in the northeast, elements of Russia's 37th Motor Rifle Brigade and 40th Naval Infantry Brigade raised the flag in the center of Rozdolne, confirming that Russian forces had taken full control of the village by November 29. [60] [61]

Starting in December, Russian forces launched an assault north of Velyka Novosilka where they entered the village of Novyi Komar, thus cutting the T0518 road towards Bahatyr. [62] Meanwhile in the west, the Russian army also improved their positions seizing the settlement of Novodarivka on December 3. [63] [64] A counterattack by the Ukrainian forces a few days later resulted in regaining full control of Novyi Komar. [65] [4] At the same time, Russian troops started advances to the south of Velyka Novosilka along the Mokri Yaly river where they captured the village of Blahodatne. [66]

On December 7, Ukrainian forces launched a counteroffensive and successfully recaptured Rozdolne. [13]

Analysis

Strategic value

Velyka Novosilka is seen as a strategic point in the Donbas due to its location close to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. The settlement is, together with Kurakhove, one of the few remaining Ukrainian-controlled strongholds in southern Donetsk Oblast. Therefore, it also functions as a regional logistical hub for the Ukrainian forces. [67]

The Institute for the Study of War assessed on November 24 that the Russian military command is planning to advance from Velyka Novosilka into eastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast to envelop the Ukrainian forces in the Pokrovsk – Kurakhove area from the west. [68] This will also threaten important Ukrainian ground lines of communication running from Zaporizhzhia into western Donetsk Oblast. [69]

The UK Ministry of Defence has stated that Velyka Novosilka serves as a "linchpin of Ukraine's front line." [70]

Tactics

A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces are utilizing a new "carousel" tactic during their raids on Urozhaine. The milblogger stated that this "carousel" tactic enables Russian tanks to fire continuously on Ukrainian forces, both while stationary and while maneuvering. The milblogger further explained that as one tank is engaged in firing at Ukrainian forces, the crew of a second tank positions itself behind the first tank to reload. [71]

See also

Notelist

  1. ↑ in Zaporizhzhia oblast – Donetsk oblast border
  2. ↑ Rivnopil,Novodarivka and Blahodatne
  3. ↑ five of them were executed

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References

  1. 1 2 Harward, Christina; Gasparyan, Davit; Mappes, Grace; Stepanenko, Kateryna; Runkel, William; Barros, George (2024-11-23). "Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 23, 2024". Institute for the Study of War. Retrieved 2024-11-24.
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  3. ↑ "Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 27, 2024". Institute for the Study of War. Retrieved 2024-11-28.
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  11. 1 2 "Presidential brigade stops assault near Vremivka". Military. Honest news about the army, war and defense. Retrieved 2024-11-28.
  12. 1 2 3 "Ukrainian Armed Forces drive invaders out of Novyi Komar village". Military. Honest news about the army, war and defense. Retrieved 2024-12-05.
  13. 1 2 3 "Soldiers of the Skala Battalion secure the village of Rozdolne". Military. Honest news about the army, war and defense. Retrieved 2024-12-09.
  14. ↑ "Russia deploys 150,000 soldiers on Ukraine's three eastern directions". global.espreso.tv. Retrieved 2024-12-11. According to him, over 70,000 soldiers are concentrated in the Pokrovsk direction, while up to 36,000 in the Kurakhove direction and over 40,000 in the Vremivka direction.
  15. 1 2 "Російські війська намагаються повернути Макарівку: що відбувається на лінії фронту" [Russian troops attempt to reclaim Makarivka: Current developments on the frontline]. Ukr.net. 2024-11-20. Retrieved 2024-12-10. За приблизними підрахунками, російська армія втратила понад 50 людей убитими і важкопораненими, а також 50 поранених.[According to preliminary estimates, the Russian army has lost over 50 personnel, either killed or severely wounded, along with an additional 50 injured.]
  16. ↑ "Росіяни розстріляли 5 українських полонених поблизу Новодарівки на Запоріжжі" [The Russians executed five Ukrainian prisoners near Novodarivka in Zaporizhzhia]. Украинская правда (in Ukrainian). Retrieved 2024-12-09. За попередніми даними, 24 листопада 2024 року поблизу населеного пункту Новодарівка Пологівського району Запорізької області, де тривають активні бойові дії, військовослужбовці збройних сил РФ здійснили розстріл п'ятьох українських захисників із шести, взятих у полон[Based on preliminary data, on November 24, 2024, near the settlement of Novodarivka in the Polohy district of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, where active hostilities are ongoing, servicemen of the Russian Armed Forces executed five of the six Ukrainian defenders who had been taken prisoner.]
  17. 1 2 "Армия России освободила от ВСУ села Ленинское и Макаровка в ДНР" [The Russian Army has liberated the villages of Leninskoye and Makarovka in the Donetsk People's Republic from the Armed Forces of Ukraine]. lug-info.ru (in Russian). Retrieved 2024-12-10. Российские военнослужащие на этом направлении отразили одну контратаку штурмовой группы ВСУ. Потери противника составили до 140 военнослужащих, два танка, две боевые бронированные машины, шесть автомобилей, две 152-мм самоходные артиллерийские установки «Акация».[In this sector, Russian military personnel repelled a counterattack by an assault group from the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Enemy losses amounted to up to 140 personnel, two tanks, two armored fighting vehicles, six vehicles, and two 152-mm Acacia self-propelled artillery systems.]
  18. 1 2 3 4 "Российская Армия освободила Благодатное в ДНР" [The Russian Army has liberated Blahodatne in the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR).]. Life.ru (in Russian). 2024-12-08. Retrieved 2024-12-08. В Минобороны добавили, что в этом районе за сутки ВСУ потеряли до 190 военных, две 152-мм САУ «Акация», две ББМ MaxxPro и 155-мм САУ Paladin американского производства. Кроме того, был уничтожен склад горючего.[The Ministry of Defense reported that in this area, the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) lost up to 190 soldiers, two 152-mm Acacia self-propelled howitzers, two MaxxPro armored combat vehicles, and one American-made 155-mm Paladin self-propelled howitzer within a single day. Additionally, a fuel depot was destroyed.]
  19. ↑ "Energy woes take over in Ukraine | Northwest Arkansas Democrat-Gazette". www.nwaonline.com. 2022-09-05. Retrieved 2024-12-06. Donetsk Gov. Pavlo Kyrylenko said Sunday that two people had been killed a day earlier in the village of Velyka Novosilka, which is about 60 miles west of the regional capital.
  20. ↑ "Великая Новоселка на грани: почему Россия близка к окружению этого опорного пункта ВСУ" [Velyka Novosilka on the Brink: Why Russia is Close to Encircling This Key Stronghold of the Armed Forces of Ukraine]. BBC News Русская служба (in Russian). 2024-12-03. Retrieved 2024-12-05. До большой войны в этом поселке проживали около 6 тысяч человек, сейчас осталось около 5% жителей. Сам населенный пункт был практически полностью разрушен обстрелами.[Before the great war, this settlement was home to approximately 6,000 people. Now, only about 5% of the residents remain. The settlement itself has been almost entirely destroyed by shelling.]
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  34. ↑ Bailey, Riley; Mappes, Grace; Wolkov, Nicole; Stepanenko, Kateryna; Barros, George; Kagan, Fredrick W. "Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 4, 2023". Institute for the Study of War . Archived from the original on 9 August 2023. Retrieved 18 August 2023.
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  37. ↑ Mappes, Grace; Wolkov, Nicole; Stepanenko, Kateryna; Barros, George; Clark, Mason. "Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 11, 2023". Institute for the Study of War . Archived from the original on 12 June 2023. Retrieved 12 June 2023.
  38. ↑ Borger, Julian; Sabbagh, Dan (12 June 2023). "Ukraine accuses Russia of destroying another dam to slow counteroffensive". The Guardian. ISSN   0261-3077. Archived from the original on 18 May 2024. Retrieved 13 June 2023.
  39. ↑ Khalilova, Dinara (26 June 2023). "Defense Ministry: Ukraine liberates Rivnopil, Donetsk Oblast". The Kyiv Independent . Archived from the original on 6 August 2023. Retrieved 26 June 2023.
  40. ↑ Stepanenko, Kateryna; Mappes, Grace; Wolkov, Nicole; Barros, George; Kagan, Frederick W. "Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 26, 2023". Institute for the Study of War . Archived from the original on 27 June 2023. Retrieved 27 June 2023.
  41. ↑ Gall, Carlotta (July 30, 2023). "Amid the Counterattack's Deadly Slog, a Glimmer of Success for Ukraine" . The New York Times . ISSN   0362-4331. Archived from the original on July 30, 2023. Retrieved July 31, 2023.
  42. ↑ Hird, Karolina; Bailey, Riley; Mappes, Grace; Evans, Angelica; Harward, Christina; Kagan, Frederick W. "Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment July 27, 2023". Institute for the Study of War . Archived from the original on 28 July 2023. Retrieved 28 July 2023.
  43. ↑ Santora, Marc (12 August 2023). "Ukraine Makes 'Tactically Significant' Progress in Its Counteroffensive". The New York Times. Archived from the original on 21 August 2023. Retrieved 13 August 2023.
  44. ↑ Polityuk, Pavel; Kelly, Lidia; Balmforth, Tom (16 August 2023). "Ukraine retakes southeast village of Urozhaine from Russian forces". Reuters . Archived from the original on 23 August 2023. Retrieved 16 August 2023.
  45. ↑ Axe, David (14 August 2023). "Ukrainian Cluster Shells Massacred Russian Troops Fleeing Urozhaine". Forbes . Archived from the original on 16 August 2023. Retrieved 16 August 2023.
  46. ↑ "Moscow Says Captured Village in Southeastern Ukraine". The Moscow Times. 10 June 2024. Retrieved 10 June 2024.
  47. ↑ Mappes, Grace; Wolkov, Nicole; Harward, Christina; Hird, Karolina; Stepanenko, Kateryna; Barros, George (10 June 2024). "Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 10, 2024". Institute for the Study of War. Retrieved 15 June 2024. Geolocated footage published on June 10 shows that Russian forces advanced to northern Staromayorske [...] and have likely seized the whole settlement.
  48. ↑ Wolkov, Nicole; Evans, Angelica; Bailey, Riley; Harward, Christina; Kagan, Frederick W. (13 July 2024). "Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 13, 2024". Institute for the Study of War. Retrieved 13 July 2024.
  49. ↑ Ukrainian forces withdraw from Urozhaine to saves lives of military personnel – Khortytsia Task Force
  50. ↑ Ukrainian defenders withdraw from Urozhaine, Donetsk Oblast
  51. ↑ Guy Faulconbridge (2024-10-02). "Russia captures Vuhledar after two years of Ukrainian resistance". Reuters. Retrieved 2024-11-23.
  52. ↑ "Russia says it captures two villages in Ukraine's east". Reuters. 2024-10-08. Retrieved 2024-11-23.
  53. ↑ "Russia says took control of Rivnopil in Ukraine's Donetsk region". Al Arabiya News. 2024-11-13. Retrieved 2024-11-23.
  54. ↑ Elena Teslova (2024-11-13). "Russia claims to have taken control of another settlement in Ukraine". Anadolu Agency. Retrieved 2024-11-23.
  55. ↑ "Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 11, 2024". Institute for the Study of War. 2024-11-11. Retrieved 2024-11-25.
  56. ↑ Mappes, Grace; Hird, Karolina; Gasparyan, Davit; Evans, Angelica; Gibson, Olivia; Runkel, William; Trotter, Nate; Barros, George (21 November 2024). "Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 21, 2024". Institute for the Study of War. Retrieved 23 November 2024.
  57. ↑ "Russian forces reportedly advance near 5 settlements in Donetsk Oblast". The Kyiv Independant. 2024-11-23.
  58. ↑ David Axe (2024-11-23). "Ramshackle Russian Assault Groups Are Maneuvering Around Undermanned Ukrainian Defenses In Donetsk Oblast". Forbes. Retrieved 2024-11-24.
  59. ↑ Andrew E. Kramer (2024-11-23). "What's Behind Ukraine and Russia's Missile Brinkmanship?". The New York Times. Retrieved 2024-11-27.
  60. ↑ "Russia says seized another village in Ukraine's Donbas region". Al Arabiya News. 2024-11-29. Retrieved 2024-12-01.
  61. ↑ Mappes, Grace; Hird, Karolina; Stepanenko, Kateryna; Evans, Angelica; Wolkov, Nicole; Runkel, William; Barros, George (29 November 2024). "Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 29, 2024". Institute for the Study of War. Retrieved 1 December 2024.
  62. ↑ Harward, Christina; Wolkov, Nicole; Gasparyan, Davit; Trotter, Nate; Gibson, Olivia; Runkel, William; Hird, Karolina (3 December 2024). "Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 3, 2024". Institute for the Study of War. Retrieved 5 December 2024.
  63. ↑ Burc Eruygur (2024-12-03). "Russia claims it took control of 2 more settlements in eastern Ukraine". Anadolu Agency. Retrieved 2024-12-10.
  64. ↑ "Zelenskiy calls for reinforcement of eastern front against Russian advances". Reuters. 2024-12-04. Retrieved 2024-12-10.
  65. ↑ Kateryna Hodunova (2024-12-05). "Ukrainian forces regain control of Novyi Komar village in Donetsk Oblast". The Kyiv Independant. Retrieved 2024-12-10.
  66. ↑ "Ukraine liberates Novyi Komar, Russian troops seize Blahodatne". New Voice. Retrieved 2024-12-05.
  67. ↑ Stanislav Storozhenko (2024-09-27). "How Close is Russia to Capturing Ukraine's Key Stronghold of Vuhledar?". The Moscow Times. Retrieved 2024-11-24.
  68. ↑ Mappes, Grace; Harward, Christina; Gasparyan, Davit; Wolkov, Nicole; Barros, George (24 November 2024). "Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 24, 2024". Institute for the Study of War. Retrieved 23 November 2024.
  69. ↑ Sasha Vakulina (2024-11-26). "Russian offensive in Ukraine's Donetsk region gains momentum". EuroNews. Retrieved 2024-11-29.
  70. ↑ "British intelligence analyzes Russia's advance after capturing Vuhledar". RBC-Ukraine. Retrieved 2024-12-05.
  71. ↑ Mappes, Grace; Wolkov, Nicole; Stepanenko, Kateryna; Evans, Angelica; Kagan, Frederick W. (21 November 2024). "Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 2, 2024". Institute for the Study of War. Retrieved 2024-11-24.

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