Defying most polls leading up to the election, the Greens remained the largest party with 30.2% of the vote, only a small decline from the previous election. The CDU gained more than five percentage points and placed a narrow second on 29.7%, with both parties finishing on 56 seats. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) won 18.8% and 35 seats, almost doubling its previous performance. Three other parties, despite polling over the 5% electoral threshold, suffered losses. The Social Democratic Party (SPD) lost half its support and took 5.5% of the vote and 10 seats, the party's worst ever result in a state election since 1945.[2] The Free Democratic Party (FDP) fell below 5% and for the first time lost representation in the state which is considered its stronghold.
The CDU held a lead in polling for much of the period prior to the election, but the Greens gained rapidly during the campaign, which was attributed to Özdemir's personal popularity.[3][4] The party was also assisted by strategic voting from supporters of parties such as the SPD and Die Linke, the latter of which failed to clear the electoral threshold.
In absence of other realistic options, both parties declared that they would continue to cooperate.[citation needed] While the CDU and AfD hold a majority between them, the CDU rejects cooperation with the party. The Greens and CDU are therefore expected to renew their coalition, with Özdemir likely to become Minister-President. If so, he would become the first Minister-President of Turkish background.[5]
The election was held after modifications to the state's mixed-member proportional representation system which gave voters two votes – one for a single-member constituency and one for a party list – for the first time. The CDU significantly overperformed in the constituency component, winning 34% of the vote to the Greens' 25% and 56 of the 70 constituencies. This did not affect the relative strength of the parties, but the large number of overhang and leveling seats awarded resulted in the Landtag expanding to 157 seats, compared to its statutory size of 120.[6]
Election date
The period of the 17th Landtag formally ends on 30 April 2026, as per Article 30, Paragraph 2 of the Baden-Württemberg Constitution, which requires the election to take place before the end of the five-year term unless the Landtag is dissolved earlier. On 18 March 2025, Interior Minister Thomas Strobl announced 8 March 2026 as the provisional date for the next election, in accordance with Section 19 of the State Parliament Election Act.[7]
The Landtag of Baden-Württemberg is elected through mixed-member proportional representation. 70 members are elected in single-member constituencies via first-past-the-post voting. According to a reform law passed in 2022, the remaining seats are allocated using compensatory proportional representation based on the newly introduced second vote, distributed to state-wide party lists in accordance with the Sainte-Laguë method, rather than the previous system of allocating seats to the best-performing unelected constituency candidates (which was known as a Zweitmandat, "second mandate"). This aligns Baden-Württemberg’s system with most other German states and the federal Bundestag election system.
The minimum size of the Landtag is 120 seats, but overhang and leveling seats are added to ensure proportional representation at the state level.[9] In 2021, for example, 154 seats were allocated due to such adjustments. An electoral threshold of 5% of valid votes applies. Additionally, the minimum voting age was lowered to 16 by the 2022 reform.[10]
In the 2021 Baden-Württemberg state election, the Greens, led by Minister-President Winfried Kretschmann, emerged again as the strongest party, now with 32.6% of the vote, marking their best result in any state election nationwide. Their coalition partner, the CDU, achieved its worst-ever result in Baden-Württemberg, dropping to 24.1%. The CDU's leading candidates both were ministers that had not been elected to the Landtag in 2016, and did not win mandates in 2021 either. While Susanne Eisenmann retired from politics, Thomas Strobl returned as minister in the new cabinet, and won a seat only in 2026.
The SPD recorded its lowest-ever result with 11%, but became the strongest of the three opposition parties. The FDP achieved one of its best results with 10.5%. The AfD had entered the state parliament in 2016 as the strongest opposition force, but then showed internal conflicts, suffered significant losses and fell to fifth place with 9.7%. Other parties, including the The Left (3.6%), Free Voters (3.0%), and others (5.5%), also participated but did not secure significant representation.
Following the election, discussions focused on either continuing the Green-CDU "Kiwi Coalition" or forming a traffic-light coalition with the Greens, SPD, and FDP. On April 3, 2021, the Greens and CDU agreed to begin coalition negotiations. While some Green Party members favored a traffic-light coalition (which later in 2021 was formed on national level), Kretschmann advocated for continuing the Green-CDU coalition, which ultimately prevailed. On May 12, 2021, Kretschmann was re-elected as Minister-President with 95 votes, five fewer than the coalition's total seats, forming the third Kretschmann cabinet.[11]
In April 2022, the state parliament amended the electoral law, moving to a conventional mixed-member proportional system with a second vote and closed lists, as well as lowering the voting age to 16. Winfried Kretschmann has announced he will not seek a fourth term in 2026. Cem Özdemir, a prominent Green politician, declared in 2024 his intention to lead the Greens in Baden-Württemberg and thus did not run in the 2025 federal election. For the CDU, Manuel Hagel has emerged as the new leader and, according to current polls, has a strong chance of becoming Minister-President in 2026. As the AfD is rejected by all other parties ("firewall"), the CDU will likely need to continue its coalition with the Greens. The 2011 Baden-Württemberg state election took place after the Japanese Tōhoku earthquake and Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster led to nuclear power plant shutdowns in Germany, and the outcome confirmed polls that predicted a leadership change from CDU to Greens. In the months before the 2026 election, the CDU had been leading in polls, but the Greens caught up with CDU in final polls.
Parties
The table below lists the five parties that were elected to the 2021 17th Landtag.
In 2026, the lists of 21 parties were approved.[12]
Leading candidates
Cem Özdemir, first elected to the Bundestag for Alliance 90/The Greens in 1994, and who has served as a Member of the European Parliament and Federal Minister but never as a state parliamentarian, announced on October 25, 2024, his intention to run as the Greens' lead candidate in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg state election and to become Minister-President of the state.[13] On May 24, 2025, the state party conference selected him as the lead candidate[14] with place 2 on the list. The Green party has a policy of electing only women to odd number list places, starting with Thekla Walker as 1st.
In mid-May 2025, Manuel Hagel was chosen as the CDU's lead candidate for the 2026 state election,[15] while Andreas Stoch was nominated by the SPD.[16] AfD state leader Markus Frohnmaier will lead his party’s campaign for the state election as the candidate for Minister-President but is not running for a state parliament seat; Emil Sänze heads the AfD’s state list.[17]
Debates
Local public TV station SWR Fernsehen staged a debate on 24 February 2026 as a "truel" of three candidates, from the parties that poll over 20%. The wording Triell had been introduced before the 2021 German federal election.[18]
Cem Özdemir (Greens)
Cem Özdemir, the former Federal Minister of Agriculture, was elected as the Green Party’s lead candidate for the 2026 Baden-Württemberg state election with an overwhelming 97 percent of the vote at the party’s congress in Heidenheim on 24 May 2025.[19] The 59-year-old, born in Bad Urach to Turkish immigrant parents, is positioned as a pragmatic and experienced politician, aiming to succeed Winfried Kretschmann, who has served as Baden-Württemberg’s first Green Minister-President since 2011. Kretschmann praised Özdemir as “cut from the cloth of a minister-president,” highlighting his ability to lead the state from day one with a blend of pragmatism, local rootedness, and global perspective.[20][21][22] Özdemir’s campaign focuses on addressing Baden-Württemberg’s challenges, including the economic impacts of global crises like Russia’s war on Ukraine, the effects of Donald Trump’s “America First” policy, and the pressing issues of climate change and biodiversity loss.[19] He advocates for a policy that speaks plainly, confronts reality, and engages citizens on equal terms, emphasizing unity and the state’s potential to remain livable and prosperous.[22]
Özdemir’s policy positions center on ecological transformation as an economic opportunity, particularly for Baden-Württemberg’s automotive industry, which he urges to prioritize electromobility and battery production to maintain its competitive edge.[22][23] At the Unternehmertag of the UBW, he stressed the need for battery manufacturing to stay in the state, describing the car of the future as a “rolling iPhone” and supporting incentives for CO2-neutral technologies.[23] He has also critiqued the complexity of existing state funding programs, calling for streamlined support to ensure their effectiveness, even expressing openness to reviewing policies from his own Green-led government.[23] Özdemir warns against a leftward shift within the Greens, arguing that the party must remain true to its core as a “bourgeois opposition” and make the market an ally in climate protection, citing the SPD’s shift toward transfer recipients as a cautionary tale that pushed workers toward the AfD.[24][25] Despite his strong personal approval—39 percent favor him as minister-president compared to 18 percent for CDU’s Manuel Hagel—the Greens lag behind the CDU in polls, with 20-23 percent support compared to the CDU’s 26-31 percent.[26] Özdemir acknowledges the challenge, pledging to campaign vigorously across the state and warning the CDU against overconfidence, while emphasizing a fair and unifying campaign that avoids polarizing rhetoric.[22]
Manuel Hagel (CDU)
Manuel Hagel, the 37-year-old CDU state and parliamentary group leader, was nominated as the CDU’s lead candidate for the 2026 Baden-Württemberg state election with 93.8 percent of the vote at the party’s congress in Stuttgart on 19 May 2025.[27] Born in Ehingen, Hagel, a trained business economist and family man, aims to become the next Minister-President, succeeding the Green Party’s Winfried Kretschmann, by emphasizing a “new bourgeois center” that prioritizes practical governance and economic vitality.[28] Despite his lower public recognition—only 20 percent of voters know him compared to 79 percent for his Green rival Cem Özdemir—Hagel remains optimistic, supported by Federal Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who sees him as a strong leader for Baden-Württemberg’s industry-heavy economy. The CDU holds a consistent lead in polls with 26-33 percent support compared to the Greens’ 20-27 percent, bolstered by the party’s perceived competence in economic and security issues.[29]
Hagel’s policy platform focuses on modernizing the state through bureaucratic streamlining and economic innovation. During a visit to Holzbau Schmäh in Meersburg, he endorsed reducing bureaucratic hurdles, such as lengthy approval processes for heritage conservation, and advocated for free master craftsman and technician training, as well as dual education models combining vocational training with academic qualifications. In a summer interview, he proposed a leaner state administration by introducing sunset clauses for regulations and reforming social welfare systems like the Citizen’s Income to prioritize work reintegration.[30] Hagel emphasizes affordable energy as critical for industry, supporting lower electricity taxes and gas power plants to ensure supply security.[30] He positions the CDU as a party of “modern conservatism,” rooted in Christian values, social market economy, and a liberal society, while firmly rejecting cooperation with the AfD, which he criticizes for its regressive views and threat to Baden-Württemberg’s prosperity.[30] Hagel also faced controversy over using the phrase “environmental protection is homeland protection,” criticized by the Left Party as a right-wing slogan, though the CDU dismissed this as a campaign tactic, affirming Hagel’s stance against extremism.[31] Despite his youth, only 10 percent of voters see his age as a drawback, with 42 percent viewing it positively, and Hagel aims to leverage his energetic campaign, including a statewide summer tour, to close the recognition gap with Özdemir.[32]
Andreas Stoch (SPD)
Andreas Stoch, the 55-year-old SPD state and parliamentary group leader, was elected as the SPD’s lead candidate for the 2026 Baden-Württemberg state election with 94.6 percent of the vote at the party’s congress in Fellbach on July 5, 2025.[33] A Heidenheim native, former Kultusminister (2013–2016), and SPD state chair since 2018, Stoch aims to lead the SPD out of its current polling low of around 10–12.5 percent, significantly behind the CDU (26–31 percent) and Greens (20–23 percent), and reclaim a role in government, potentially in a coalition with the CDU and FDP.[28] Despite the party’s weak 11 percent result in the 2021 election and a challenging opposition role, Stoch is determined to reverse the SPD’s fortunes, declaring, “Today, the comeback begins,” and emphasizing the party’s resolve to fight for every percentage point.[33][28] His campaign draws inspiration from the team spirit of his hometown football club, FC Heidenheim, advocating for a cohesive SPD that stands up for workers and social justice.[28] Stoch’s policy platform prioritizes economic security, social equity, and education reform. He has made the fight for industrial jobs a cornerstone, criticizing the relocation of jobs abroad (e.g., 200 jobs moved to Hungary by Bosch and ZF) and pledging to work with unions and businesses to maintain Baden-Württemberg’s industrial strength.[28] He advocates for stronger tariff agreements and higher minimum wages to ensure workers earn significantly more than non-workers, dismissing debates over Citizen’s Income as misguided.[34] Stoch also focuses on addressing the state’s housing crisis, noting a shortage of 200,000 affordable homes, and calls for fee-free kindergartens to alleviate financial burdens on families and address the lack of 60,000 childcare places.[34][16] Education remains central, leveraging his experience as Kultusminister, where he earned praise despite recent criticism over 1,440 unfilled teaching posts due to a long-standing administrative error, which he claims was not flagged during his tenure.[34] Stoch emphasizes a “resilient democracy” as the foundation for these policies, aiming to counter the AfD’s appeal to workers by addressing economic fears through investment and opportunity.[35] To strengthen the SPD’s campaign, he promotes an open, participatory approach, incorporating ideas from a “Debattencamp” with diverse societal voices, including unions and cultural figures, to craft a voter-responsive platform focused on jobs, housing, and education.[35] Despite his lower public recognition (24 percent compared to Cem Özdemir’s 80 percent), Stoch’s experience and focus on core SPD themes aim to position the party as a vital government partner.[36]
Hans-Ulrich Rülke (FDP)
Hans-Ulrich Rülke, the 63-year-old FDP state and parliamentary group leader, was elected as the FDP’s lead candidate for the 2026 Baden-Württemberg state election with 88.9 percent of the vote at the party’s congress in Pforzheim on 5 July 2025.[37] A Pforzheim resident, former gymnasial teacher, and seasoned politician, Rülke has been a Landtag member since 2006, serving as FDP faction leader since 2009 and state chair since January 2025.[38][39] Having led the FDP as top candidate in the 2016 and 2021 elections, he views the 2026 election as the “mother of all elections,” critical for the FDP’s survival, especially after its exit from the Bundestag.[40] With the FDP polling at a precarious 5–9 percent, close to the parliamentary threshold, Rülke aims to secure a role in government, favoring a “bourgeois” coalition with the CDU, potentially including the SPD in a Deutschland-Koalition, while ruling out cooperation with the Greens.[41]
Rülke’s policy platform emphasizes economic liberalization, bureaucratic reform, and educational investment. He prioritizes reducing bureaucracy, criticizing the Green-led state government for ignoring recommendations to cut red tape and dissolving the Normenkontrollrat.[42] His proposals include a “one in, two out” rule for regulations, banning excessive state-level rules beyond EU or federal law, introducing sunset clauses for laws, and digitizing administration to reduce reporting burdens.[42] He advocates for tax cuts, arguing Germany’s high-tax status hampers competitiveness, and supports targeted investments in defense and municipal infrastructure over blanket debt increases, criticizing Federal Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s softened stance on the debt brake.[43][44] In education, Rülke, a former educator, calls for a “bildungswende” with diverse school types, including strengthening the Realschule and preserving the Werkrealschule, to provide tailored opportunities for all students.[45][38] He opposes the EU’s combustion engine ban, labeling it an “attack on prosperity,” and pushes for technology-neutral policies to support Baden-Württemberg’s economy.[46] Rülke also supports a controlled migration policy that balances openness with clear rules.[45] Despite the FDP’s strong 10.5 percent result in 2021, current polls suggest a tight race, and Rülke’s campaign focuses on restoring voter trust in liberal values, positioning the FDP as a voice for performance, competition, and individual freedom.[43]
Markus Frohnmaier (AfD)
The AfD in Baden-Württemberg has two leading candidates, 34-year old Markus Frohnmaier and 75-year-old Emil Sänze, both of whom play significant roles in the party’s strategy for the 2026 state election. However, Markus Frohnmaier, member of the German federal parliament since 2017, is the designated lead candidate and is explicitly running only for Minister-President, not for a state parliament seat, making him the more prominent figure for the election. Sänze, who has been elected twice via the constituency of Rottweil, was chosen as No.1 on the newly introduced state-wide party list.[47]
Markus Frohnmaier was elected on 31 May 2025 as the AfD’s lead candidate for the 2026 Baden-Württemberg state election with near-unanimous support (386 of 387 delegates) at the party’s congress in Heilbronn.[48] Born in Romania and adopted by a Swabian couple, Frohnmaier grew up in Weil der Stadt, attended Hauptschule and Realschule, earned his Abitur, and began but did not complete a law degree, citing a heart attack at 27 as a reason for prioritizing his political career.[49] A Bundestag member since 2017, he serves as deputy chair and foreign policy spokesperson for the AfD’s federal faction and is a close ally of party leader Alice Weidel, having previously been her press spokesperson.[48][50]
Frohnmaier’s campaign is ambitious, aiming to make the AfD the strongest force in Baden-Württemberg, capitalizing on the party’s polling surge to 19 percent in May 2025, up from 9.7 percent in 2021, placing it third behind the CDU (31 percent) and Greens (20 percent).[51] He frames the election as a chance to oust the CDU and Greens, criticizing CDU leader Friedrich Merz for broken promises on migration and the debt brake, and positioning the AfD as a “conservative, reliable” alternative.[52] The AfD program[53] for the 2026 state election includes a “9-point immediate program” for the first 100 days. According to Süddeutsche Zeitung[54] this program includes redirecting 400 million euros from climate measures to an energy rebate, building nuclear power plants, sourcing Russian gas, mandating state agencies to buy Baden-Württemberg-made vehicles, and exiting the federal asylum distribution system. Frohnmaier also proposes a referendum on irregular migration, advocating for border rejections, detention of deportable migrants, and in-kind benefits for asylum seekers.[55] In education, he rejects the Gemeinschaftsschule, prioritizes STEM subjects, and demands schools display German flags.[55] Controversially, he seeks to revive economic ties with Russia via the Bundesrat and opposes aid to Ukraine, arguing it’s “not our war”.[56]
Frohnmaier’s past as a "firebrand", including his 2015 speech calling for “cleaning out” politics and ties to the now-dissolved Junge Alternative and Björn Höcke’s “Flügel,” draws scrutiny, with the Verfassungsschutz citing his rhetoric as evidence of the AfD’s extremist tendencies.[57][54] His posts, like one labeling “population exchange” critics as dismissive, and alleged Russian ties, including his marriage to a Russian journalist, fuel criticism, though he denies being “Russia’s man” and advocates balanced relations.[58] Despite his moderated tone, aiming for a “citizen-friendly” image, the Verfassungsschutz’s “secured right-extremist” label for the federal AfD and “suspected case” status in Baden-Württemberg complicate his campaign.[59][57][60] Notably, he does not seek a Landtag seat, only switching from the Bundestag if he becomes Minister-President, a stance framed as upholding separation of powers but criticized as a “back-up plan” to stay in Berlin.[52] On the other hand, Thomas Strobl (CDU), Baden-Württemberg's Deputy Minister-President and State Minister of the Interior since 2016, never was elected to the Baden-Württemberg parliament either, and resigned from his Berlin seat only in June 2016, weeks after having taken office in Stuttgart.
Opinion polling
Graphical summary
Local regression of polls conducted since the 2021 state election.
Similar to the 2024 Brandenburg state election, the election became a two-horse race at the expense of most other parties, which finished below their poll ratings.[61]
A few days before the election, the Greens recovered from their low poll ratings and nearly repeated their 2021 result, with Cem Özdemir likely to succeed Kretschmann as the only Green Minister-President in Germany.[62] The CDU and the AfD both made significant gains that did not translate into more power, even though, in theory, a CDU-AfD coalition could govern the state and, by extension, Germany, but this is, "forbidden" by the anti-AfD firewall policy, which was reconfirmed by CDU leader Hagel.[63] The CDU, seemingly winning the same number of seats with about 0.5% less of the popular vote, will support the Greens in a third term.[64]
The AfD rebounded from the 9.7% low of 2021, but did not improve much over the 2016 result of 15.2%, failed to win 20+% and to catch up to the two leading parties, but with 18.8% the AfD of Baden-Württemberg bypassed Hesse as the AfD's best in the West, and once again became leader of the opposition, nearly as the only opposition party.[67]
The SPD, formerly a Volkspartei with over 40% and having ruled Germany with Chancellor Scholz until about a year ago, is now part of Chancellor Merz' coalition and has dropped to an all-time all-state low of 5.5%, with their state leader Stoch conceding and resigning.
The FDP, having dropped out of most state parliaments as well as the Bundestag, and polling too low in four upcoming elections, suffered another disastrous result: failing to gain 5% even in its supportive region, thus no longer being represented in its Landtag.[68] Despite recent success, The Left, which was never represented in the state, also failed to pass 5%, but at an all-time high, ahead of the FDP.[69] Other parties remain insignificant.[70]
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