CNalysis

Last updated

CNalysis
CNalysis logo.webp
Type of site
Politics
Available inEnglish
OwnerChaz Nuttycombe
URL cnalysis.com
Launched2020;4 years ago (2020)
Current statusOnline

CNalysis is an American political website that projects the winners of elections in the United States. The site specializes in predicting state legislative elections and, unique among election forecasters, makes predictions for every such contest in a given year. [1] [2] It was launched in 2020 by Chaz Nuttycombe, who has been Director of the website mostly while he was a political science student at Virginia Tech. [3] Nuttycombe and co-forecaster Jack Kersting finished their education in May 2024. The website has a staff of seven as well as two interns.

Contents

A June 2024 article announced that the site plans to shutter operations in December 2024, following the 2024 United States elections. [4] The site's content will be moved over to its successor, State Navigate, a 501(c)(3) nonpartisan, nonprofit organization. Unlike CNalysis, the new organization will not predict federal elections, but it will continue forecasting state legislative elections and calculating, gathering, and publishing related election data for them. State Navigate also plans to conduct polling on the state legislative level, curate news in state legislatures, hire state house reporters, calculate the ideology of legislators, and display comprehensive bill and campaign finance databases.

2020 Elections

CNalysis launched on March 1, 2020, after beginning development in October 2019. [5] Nuttycombe was joined with its original staff: cofounder "cinyc9," Nuttycombe's Geographic information system tutor, as well as editor Allie Geier, oddsmaker Jackson Martin, and graphics designer Blaine Monroe. In July, campaign finance analyst Chris Leonchik was brought on board. In December, jhkforecasts founder Jack Kersting joined the team as the co-forecaster.

CNalysis successfully predicted a Joe Biden victory as well as 47/50 states for the Presidential election that year. They unsuccessfully predicted that Joe Biden would win the states of Texas, North Carolina, and Florida, all of which were rated "Tilt Democratic," representing a 60% chance Biden would win those states. [6] All 3 states were instead won by Donald Trump. In the Senate, they successfully predicted a Democratic majority in the Senate, while missing 4/35 seats, unsuccessfully predicting Democratic victories in North Carolina and Maine, and Republican victories in the Georgia runoffs. In the US House, they missed 25 out of the 435 seats in the chamber. In the 11 gubernatorial elections, they successfully predicted every race.

In the state legislative elections that year, they correctly predicted 78/86 state legislative chambers, missing the Texas House, Michigan House, Iowa House, Minnesota Senate, as well as both chambers in the Arizona and New Hampshire legislature, where Republicans won majorities in each. [7] They successfully predicted the outcome of 3,285 contested state legislative seats out of the 3,545 seats they cast a rating for (93%). Out of the 1,033 seats they identified as competitive (including 15 seats that were in their "Safe" column the other way), they successfully predicted 773 seats, or 75%. [8]

2021 Elections

CNalysis migrated its website from Squarespace to WordPress on its first anniversary and debuted its new logo. It launched a newsletter on Substack and a podcast.

CNalysis was the first forecasting outlet to post a prediction that had Glenn Youngkin as the favorite to win the Virginia Governor's race, giving Youngkin a "Tilt R" rating, representing a 60% chance of victory. They unsuccessfully predicted Democratic victories in the races for Virginia Lieutenant Governor and Virginia Attorney General, giving Democrats a 60% chance of winning the Lieutenant Governor's race and a 70% chance of winning the Attorney General race. They also successfully predicted the race for New Jersey Governor, expecting a Phil Murphy victory.

In the state legislative elections, they successfully predicted the outcome of 123 out of 129 contested state legislative seats between the Virginia House of Delegates and the New Jersey Senate. They successfully predicted that Republicans would flip the Virginia House of Delegates with a 52–48 majority, but missed 4/100 seats in the chamber, with both parties pulling off an upset in two each. [9] In the New Jersey Senate, they successfully predicted a Democratic majority while missing 2 seats in the chamber.

2022 Elections

In 2022, CNalysis had the best US House forecast compared to any other outlet that eliminates Toss-Up ratings, missing 16/435 seats and predicting a 230-205 Republican House. In the US Senate, they successfully predicted 34/36 seats, incorrectly predicting Republican victories in Nevada and Pennsylvania. They successfully predicted 32/36 gubernatorial elections that year, incorrectly predicting Republican victories in Oregon, Kansas, Arizona, and Wisconsin.

In their state legislative forecasts, they successfully predicted 83 out of 88 state legislative chambers up that year, incorrectly predicting Republican victories in the Pennsylvania House as well as both chambers of the Michigan and Minnesota legislature. They successfully predicted the outcome of 3,380 contested state legislative seats out of the 3,569 seats they cast a rating for (95%). Out of the 1,284 seats they identified as competitive (including 3 seats that were in their "Safe" column the other way), they successfully predicted 1,095 seats, or 85%.

2023 Elections

CNalysis earned recognition in 2023 for correctly predicting all 100 results in the 2023 Virginia House of Delegates election and all 40 results in the 2023 Virginia Senate election. [2] [10] On election night, the website debuted a new feature built by Kersting: a live projection of who is favored to win control of the Virginia legislature as precinct results rolled in. [11]

They successfully predicted the outcome of the gubernatorial elections in Mississippi, Louisiana and Kentucky that year, as well as 277 out of 284 contested state legislative seats (98% correct) between the states of Virginia, New Jersey, Mississippi, and Louisiana. When filtering by the 63 seats they identified as competitive in these states, or 89% of seats right.

2024 Elections

For the 2024 United States presidential election, CNalysis incorrectly predicted that Kamala Harris would win by roughly 308 electoral votes with a 70% chance of victory. [12] They forecasted a 60% chance of a Democratic victory in Nevada and North Carolina (tilting Democratic), a 70% chance in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (leaning Democratic), and an 80% chance in Georgia and Michigan (likely Democratic). [13] All 6 states were instead won by Donald Trump. They also incorrectly predicted a Democratic victory in the 2024 United States House of Representatives elections, [14] however, they missed 10 out of 435 US House seats, their best score out of their three US House forecasts. In the US Senate, they only missed one out of 34 seats up that year and successfully predicted a Republican majority. Like in 2020, they successfully predicted the outcome of each of the 11 gubernatorial races up in presidential years.

In their state legislative forecasts, they successfully predicted 79 out of 85 state legislative chambers up that year, incorrectly predicting Democratic victories in the Wisconsin Assembly, Michigan House, Minnesota House, New Hampshire House, and both chambers of the Arizona legislature. They successfully predicted the outcome of 3,633 contested state legislative seats out of the 3,879 seats they cast a rating for (94%). Out of the 1,147 seats they identified as competitive (including 3 seats that were in their "Safe" column the other way), they successfully predicted 901 seats, or 79%.

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Larry Joseph Sabato is an American political scientist and political analyst. He is the Robert Kent Gooch Professor of Politics at the University of Virginia, where he is also the founder and director of the Center for Politics, which works to promote civic engagement and participation. The Center for Politics is also responsible for the publication of Sabato's Crystal Ball, an online newsletter and website that provides free political analysis and electoral projections. He is well known in American political media as a popular pundit, and is interviewed frequently by a variety of sources.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2010 United States state legislative elections</span>

The 2010 United States state legislative elections were held on November 2, 2010, halfway through President Barack Obama's first term in office. Elections were held for 88 legislative chambers, with all states but Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey, and Virginia holding elections in at least one house. Kansas and New Mexico held elections for their lower, but not upper houses. Four territorial chambers in three territories and the District of Columbia were up as well.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2014 United States elections</span>

The 2014 United States elections were held on Tuesday, November 4, 2014, in the middle of Democratic President Barack Obama's second term. A typical six-year itch midterm election suffered by most second-term presidents, this election saw the Republican Party retaining control of the House of Representatives and winning control of the Senate, while furthering their gains in the governorships and state legislatures. Because of these Republican gains, the election was commonly cited as a "red wave" election.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2018 United States elections</span>

The 2018 United States elections were held on Tuesday, November 6, 2018. These midterm elections occurred during Incumbent Republican President Donald Trump's first term. Although the Republican Party increased its majority in the Senate, unified Republican control of Congress and the White House was brought to an end when the Democratic Party won control of the House of Representatives in what was widely characterized as a "blue wave" election as Democrats also gained governorships, other statewide offices, and state legislative chambers.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2020 Texas Senate election</span>

The 2020 Texas Senate elections took place as part of the biennial United States elections. Texas voters elected state senators in 16 of the 31 state senate districts. The winners of this election served in the 87th Texas Legislature. State senators serve four-year terms in the Texas State Senate. Those elected in 2020 will only be elected for two years, however, as part of the 2-4-4 term system. A statewide map of Texas's state Senate districts can be obtained from the Texas Legislative Council. and individual district maps can be obtained from the U.S. Census.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2020 United States state legislative elections</span>

The 2020 United States state legislative elections were held on November 3, 2020, for 86 state legislative chambers in 44 states. Across the fifty states, approximately 65 percent of all upper house seats and 85 percent of all lower house seats were up for election. Nine legislative chambers in the five permanently-inhabited U.S. territories and the federal district of Washington, D.C. also held elections. The elections took place concurrently with several other federal, state, and local elections, including the presidential election, U.S. Senate elections, U.S. House elections, and gubernatorial elections.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2018 United States state legislative elections</span>

The 2018 United States state legislative elections were held on November 6, 2018, for 87 state legislative chambers in 46 states. Across the fifty states, approximately 56 percent of all upper house seats and 92 percent of all lower house seats were up for election. Additionally, six territorial chambers in four territories and the District of Columbia were up as well.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2020 Texas House of Representatives election</span>

The 2020 Texas House of Representatives elections took place as part of the biennial United States elections. Texas voters elected state representatives in all 150 of the state house's districts. Primary elections were held in March 2020. The winners of this election served in the 87th Texas Legislature. Two seats changed hands, both in Harris County, one Democratic flip and one Republican flip, for no net change.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2022 United States state legislative elections</span>

The 2022 United States state legislative elections were held on November 8, 2022, for 88 state legislative chambers in 46 states. Across the fifty states, approximately 56 percent of all upper house seats and 92 percent of all lower house seats were up for election. Additionally, six territorial chambers were up in four territories and the District of Columbia. These midterm elections coincided with other state and local elections, including gubernatorial elections in multiple states.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2024 United States gubernatorial elections</span>

United States gubernatorial elections were held on November 5, 2024, in 11 states and two territories. The previous gubernatorial elections for this group of states took place in 2020, except in New Hampshire and Vermont, where governors only serve two-year terms and elected their governors in 2022. In addition to state gubernatorial elections, the territories of American Samoa and Puerto Rico held elections for their governors. This was also the first time since 1988 that a Republican nominee won the gubernatorial election in American Samoa and also the first time since 1996 that an incumbent governor there lost re-election.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2014 United States state legislative elections</span>

Elections to state legislatures were held in 46 U.S. states in 2014 with a total of 6,049 seats up for election. Six territorial chambers were up in four territories and the District of Columbia.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2017 United States state legislative elections</span>

The 2017 United States state legislative elections were held on November 7, 2017. Three legislative chambers in two states held regularly scheduled elections. These off-year elections coincided with other state and local elections, including gubernatorial elections in two states.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2016 United States state legislative elections</span>

The 2016 United States state legislative elections were held on November 8, 2016, for 86 state legislative chambers in 44 states. Across the fifty states, approximately 65 percent of all upper house seats and 85 percent of all lower house seats were up for election. Nine legislative chambers in the five permanently-inhabited U.S. territories and the federal district of Washington, D.C. also held elections. The elections took place concurrently with several other federal, state, and local elections, including the presidential election, U.S. Senate elections, U.S. House elections, and gubernatorial elections.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2012 United States state legislative elections</span>

The 2012 United States state legislative elections were held on November 6, 2012, for 86 state legislative chambers in 44 states. Across the fifty states, approximately 65 percent of all upper house seats and 85 percent of all lower house seats were up for election. Nine legislative chambers in the five permanently-inhabited U.S. territories and the federal district of Washington, D.C. also held elections. The elections took place concurrently with several other federal, state, and local elections, including the presidential election, U.S. Senate elections, U.S. House elections, and gubernatorial elections.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2023 Virginia's 7th Senate district special election</span>

On January 10, 2023, voters in the 7th district of the Virginia Senate voted in a special election to fill the seat left vacant by Republican Jen Kiggans, the previous incumbent, who had resigned on January 3, 2023, after having been elected to Congress the preceding November. New state legislative maps took effect on January 11, 2023, at the start of 2023 legislative. However, this special election took place under previous district lines. As a result of the redistricting process, the 7th district became the 22nd district in November,. Final official vote tallies were not released until January 13 because mail-in ballots were accepted after election day if postmarked for January 10. Democrat Aaron Rouse, an at-large Virginia Beach City Council member and former professional football player defeated Republican Kevin Adams, a retired U.S. Navy lieutenant commander and small business owner.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2024 Arizona Senate election</span>

The 2024 Arizona Senate election was held on November 5, 2024. Voters elected members of the Arizona Senate in all 30 of the state's legislative districts to serve a two-year term. Primary elections were held on July 30, 2024.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2024 Texas Senate election</span>

Elections to the Texas Senate will be held on November 5, 2024, for 15 of the 31 Senate districts across the state of Texas. Numerous other federal, state, and local elections will also be held on this date. The winners of this election will serve full four-year terms covering the 89th Texas Legislature and the 90th Texas Legislature. Republicans have held a majority in the Texas Senate since January 14, 1997, as a result of the 1996 elections. Republicans won eight of the fifteen seats up for election, flipping one from the Democrats. Due to the high number of uncontested seats, however, Democratic candidates received more votes statewide than Republican candidates.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2024 United States state legislative elections</span>

The 2024 United States state legislative elections were held on November 5, 2024, for 85 state legislative chambers in 44 states. Across the fifty states, approximately 65 percent of all upper house seats and 85 percent of all lower house seats were up for election. Nine legislative chambers in the five permanently inhabited U.S. territories and the federal district of Washington, D.C., also held elections. The elections take place concurrently with several other federal, state, and local elections, including the presidential election, U.S. Senate elections, U.S. House elections, and gubernatorial elections.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2024 West Virginia Senate election</span>

The 2024 West Virginia Senate election was held on November 5, 2024, with 17 of the chamber's 34 seats up for election. This took place alongside elections to the House of Delegates, as well as a number of statewide elected positions and elections to Congress and the Presidency. Primary elections were held on May 14, 2024.

References

  1. JoJack, Beth (July 12, 2023). "Virginia Tech student has become a national 'go-to' source on state legislative elections". Cardinal News. Retrieved November 18, 2023.
  2. 1 2 Levine, Sam (November 18, 2023). "He's correctly predicting the US's most critical elections. He's still in college". the Guardian. Retrieved November 18, 2023.
  3. Dietrich, Connor (November 7, 2023). "Virginia Tech student capturing national audience for election prediction platform". WSLS. Retrieved November 18, 2023.
  4. Nuttycombe, Chaz (June 20, 2024). "CNalysis is ending operations after this election. What's next?". CNalysis. Retrieved July 28, 2024.
  5. "CNalysis: Our Story". CNalysis. February 21, 2024. Retrieved December 6, 2024.
  6. Nuttycombe, Chaz (October 31, 2020). "🚨 FINAL FEDERAL FORECAST 🚨 @CNalysis predicts..." CNalysis. Retrieved December 6, 2024.
  7. Nuttycombe, Chaz (November 2, 2020). "🚨 FINAL STATE LEGISLATIVE FORECAST 🚨 @CNalysis final forecast gives Democrats a net gain of 123 seats in single-member districts nationwide and a net gain of five state legislative chambers". CNalysis. Retrieved December 6, 2024.
  8. Nuttycombe, Chaz (November 15, 2024). "2020-2024 Miss Rankings". CNalysis. Retrieved December 6, 2024.
  9. Nuttycombe, Chaz (November 15, 2024). "2020-2024 Miss Rankings". CNalysis. Retrieved December 6, 2024.
  10. Littlehales, Alex (November 14, 2023). "Perfect predictions: Virginia Tech senior from Newport News correctly forecasts every race result of Virginia elections". 13newsnow.com. Retrieved November 18, 2023.
  11. Kersting, Jack (February 21, 2024). "'23 Live Results" . Retrieved December 6, 2024.
  12. "Kamala Harris Predicted to Win By Nearly Every Major Forecaster". Newsweek. November 5, 2024. Retrieved November 28, 2024.
  13. "2024 CNalysis Pres. Forecast". CNalysis. August 18, 2024. Archived from the original on December 25, 2023. Retrieved November 28, 2024.
  14. "2024 House Forecast". CNalysis. November 5, 2024. Retrieved November 28, 2024.