Eye (cyclone)

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Hurricane Florence, seen from the International Space Station, showing a well-defined eye at the center of the storm Staring Down Hurricane Florence.jpg
Hurricane Florence, seen from the International Space Station, showing a well-defined eye at the center of the storm

The eye is a region of mostly calm weather at the center of a tropical cyclone. The eye of a storm is a roughly circular area, typically 30–65 kilometers (19–40 miles) in diameter. It is surrounded by the eyewall, a ring of towering thunderstorms where the most severe weather and highest winds of the cyclone occur. The cyclone's lowest barometric pressure occurs in the eye and can be as much as 15 percent lower than the pressure outside the storm. [1]

Contents

In strong tropical cyclones, the eye is characterized by light winds and clear skies, surrounded on all sides by a towering, symmetric eyewall. In weaker tropical cyclones, the eye is less well defined and can be covered by the central dense overcast, an area of high, thick clouds that show up brightly on satellite imagery. Weaker or disorganized storms may also feature an eyewall that does not completely encircle the eye or have an eye that features heavy rain. In all storms, however, the eye is where the barometer reading is lowest. [1] [2]

Structure

Cross section of a mature tropical cyclone Hurricane-en.svg
Cross section of a mature tropical cyclone

A typical tropical cyclone has an eye approximately 30–65 km (20–40 mi) across at the geometric center of the storm. The eye may be clear or have spotty low clouds (a clear eye), it may be filled with low- and mid-level clouds (a filled eye), or it may be obscured by the central dense overcast. There is, however, very little wind and rain, especially near the center. This is in stark contrast to conditions in the eyewall, which contains the storm's strongest winds. [3] Due to the mechanics of a tropical cyclone, the eye and the air directly above it are warmer than their surroundings. [4]

While normally quite symmetric, eyes can be oblong and irregular, especially in weakening storms. A large ragged eye is a non-circular eye which appears fragmented, and is an indicator of a weak or weakening tropical cyclone. An open eye is an eye which can be circular, but the eyewall does not completely encircle the eye, also indicating a weakening, moisture-deprived cyclone or a weak but strengthening one. Both of these observations are used to estimate the intensity of tropical cyclones via Dvorak analysis. [5] Eyewalls are typically circular; however, distinctly polygonal shapes ranging from triangles to hexagons occasionally occur. [6]

Hurricane Wilma with a pinhole eye Wilma 2005-10-19 1640Z.jpg
Hurricane Wilma with a pinhole eye

While typical mature storms have eyes that are a few dozen miles across, rapidly intensifying storms can develop an extremely small, clear, and circular eye, sometimes referred to as a pinhole eye. Storms with pinhole eyes are prone to large fluctuations in intensity, and provide difficulties and frustrations for forecasters. [7]

Sentinel-2 image of Hurricane Beryl's eye Eye of Hurricane Beryl (2024) Sentinel 2.png
Sentinel-2 image of Hurricane Beryl's eye

Small/minuscule eyes those less than ten nautical miles (19 km, 12 mi) across often trigger eyewall replacement cycles, where a new eyewall begins to form outside the original eyewall. This can take place anywhere from fifteen to hundreds of kilometers (ten to a few hundred miles) outside the inner eye. The storm then develops two concentric eyewalls, or an "eye within an eye". In most cases, the outer eyewall begins to contract soon after its formation, which chokes off the inner eye and leaves a much larger but more stable eye. While the replacement cycle tends to weaken storms as it occurs, the new eyewall can contract fairly quickly after the old eyewall dissipates, allowing the storm to re-strengthen. This may trigger another re-strengthening cycle of eyewall replacement. [8]

Eyes can range in size from 370 km (230 mi) (Typhoon Carmen) [9] to a mere 3.7 km (2.3 mi) (Hurricane Wilma) across. [10] While it is uncommon for storms with large eyes to become very intense, it does occur, especially in annular hurricanes. Hurricane Isabel was the eleventh most powerful North Atlantic hurricane in recorded history, and sustained a wide 65–80 km (40–50 mi) eye for a period of several days. [11]

The eye of Hurricane Katrina viewed from a hurricane hunter aircraft Fly00449 - Flickr - NOAA Photo Library.jpg
The eye of Hurricane Katrina viewed from a hurricane hunter aircraft

Formation and detection

Tropical cyclones form when the energy released by condensation of moisture in rising air causes a positive feedback loop over warm ocean waters. Hurricane-profile-en.svg
Tropical cyclones form when the energy released by condensation of moisture in rising air causes a positive feedback loop over warm ocean waters.
Typically, eyes are easy to spot using weather radar. This radar image of Hurricane Ian clearly shows the eye near Fort Myers, Florida. KTBW loop of Ian's First Southwest Florida Landfall 9-28-2022.gif
Typically, eyes are easy to spot using weather radar. This radar image of Hurricane Ian clearly shows the eye near Fort Myers, Florida.

Tropical cyclones typically form from large, disorganized areas of disturbed weather in tropical regions. As more thunderstorms form and gather, the storm develops rainbands which start rotating around a common center. As the storm gains strength, a ring of stronger convection forms at a certain distance from the rotational center of the developing storm. Since stronger thunderstorms and heavier rain mark areas of stronger updrafts, the barometric pressure at the surface begins to drop, and air begins to build up in the upper levels of the cyclone. [12] This results in the formation of an upper level anticyclone, or an area of high atmospheric pressure above the central dense overcast. Consequently, most of this built up air flows outward anticyclonically above the tropical cyclone. Outside the forming eye, the anticyclone at the upper levels of the atmosphere enhances the flow towards the center of the cyclone, pushing air towards the eyewall and causing a positive feedback loop. [12]

However, a small portion of the built-up air, instead of flowing outward, flows inward towards the center of the storm. This causes air pressure to build even further, to the point where the weight of the air counteracts the strength of the updrafts in the center of the storm. Air begins to descend in the center of the storm, creating a mostly rain-free area a newly formed eye. [12]

Many aspects of this process remain a mystery. Scientists do not know why a ring of convection forms around the center of circulation instead of on top of it, or why the upper-level anticyclone ejects only a portion of the excess air above the storm. Many theories exist as to the exact process by which the eye forms: all that is known for sure is that the eye is necessary for tropical cyclones to achieve high wind speeds. [12]

The formation of an eye is almost always an indicator of increasing tropical cyclone organisation and strength. Because of this, forecasters watch developing storms closely for signs of eye formation.[ citation needed ]

For storms with a clear eye, detection of the eye is as simple as looking at pictures from a weather satellite. However, for storms with a filled eye, or an eye completely covered by the central dense overcast, other detection methods must be used. Observations from ships and hurricane hunters can pinpoint an eye visually, by looking for a drop in wind speed or lack of rainfall in the storm's center. In the United States, South Korea, and a few other countries, a network of NEXRAD Doppler weather radar stations can detect eyes near the coast. Weather satellites also carry equipment for measuring atmospheric water vapor and cloud temperatures, which can be used to spot a forming eye. In addition, scientists have recently discovered that the amount of ozone in the eye is much higher than the amount in the eyewall, due to air sinking from the ozone-rich stratosphere. Instruments sensitive to ozone perform measurements, which are used to observe rising and sinking columns of air, and provide indication of the formation of an eye, even before satellite imagery can determine its formation. [13]

One satellite study found eyes detected on average for 30 hours per storm. [14]

Associated phenomena

A satellite photo of Cyclone Emnati exhibiting an outer and inner eyewall while undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle Emnati 2022-02-21 0955Z.jpg
A satellite photo of Cyclone Emnati exhibiting an outer and inner eyewall while undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle

Eyewall replacement cycles

Eyewall replacement cycles, also called concentric eyewall cycles, naturally occur in intense tropical cyclones, generally with winds greater than 185 km/h (115 mph), or major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane scale). When tropical cyclones reach this intensity, and the eyewall contracts or is already sufficiently small (see above), some of the outer rainbands may strengthen and organize into a ring of thunderstorms an outer eyewall that slowly moves inward and robs the inner eyewall of its needed moisture and angular momentum. Since the strongest winds are located in a cyclone's eyewall, the tropical cyclone usually weakens during this phase, as the inner wall is "choked" by the outer wall. Eventually the outer eyewall replaces the inner one completely, and the storm can re-intensify. [8]

The discovery of this process was partially responsible for the end of the U.S. government's hurricane modification experiment Project Stormfury. This project set out to seed clouds outside the eyewall, causing a new eyewall to form and weakening the storm. When it was discovered that this was a natural process due to hurricane dynamics, the project was quickly abandoned. [8]

Research shows that 53 percent of intense hurricanes undergo at least one of these cycles during its existence. [15] Hurricane Allen in 1980 went through repeated eyewall replacement cycles, fluctuating between Category 5 and Category 4 status on the Saffir–Simpson scale several times, while Hurricane Juliette (2001) is a documented case of triple eyewalls. [15]

Moats

A moat in a tropical cyclone is a clear ring outside the eyewall, or between concentric eyewalls, characterized by subsidence (slowly sinking air) and little or no precipitation. The air flow in the moat is dominated by the cumulative effects of stretching and shearing. The moat between eyewalls is an area in the storm where the rotational speed of the air changes greatly in proportion to the distance from the storm's center; these areas are also known as rapid filamentation zones. Such areas can potentially be found near any vortex of sufficient strength, but are most pronounced in strong tropical cyclones. [16]

Eyewall mesovortices

Mesovortices visible in the eye of Hurricane Emilia in 1994 Hurricane emilia (1994) eye close-up.jpg
Mesovortices visible in the eye of Hurricane Emilia in 1994

Eyewall mesovortices are small scale rotational features found in the eyewalls of intense tropical cyclones. They are similar, in principle, to small "suction vortices" often observed in multiple-vortex tornadoes. [17] In these vortices, wind speeds may be greater than anywhere else in the eyewall. [18] Eyewall mesovortices are most common during periods of intensification in tropical cyclones. [17]

Eyewall mesovortices often exhibit unusual behavior in tropical cyclones. They usually revolve around the low pressure center, but sometimes they remain stationary. Eyewall mesovortices have even been documented to cross the eye of a storm. These phenomena have been documented observationally, [19] experimentally, [17] and theoretically. [20]

Eyewall mesovortices are a significant factor in the formation of tornadoes after tropical cyclone landfall. Mesovortices can spawn rotation in individual convective cells or updrafts (a mesocyclone), which leads to tornadic activity. At landfall, friction is generated between the circulation of the tropical cyclone and land. This can allow the mesovortices to descend to the surface, causing tornadoes. [21] These tornadic circulations in the boundary layer may be prevalent in the inner eyewalls of intense tropical cyclones but with short duration and small size they are not frequently observed. [22]

Stadium effect

View of Typhoon Maysak's eye from the International Space Station displaying a pronounced stadium effect Maysak seen from the ISS 3.jpg
View of Typhoon Maysak's eye from the International Space Station displaying a pronounced stadium effect

The stadium effect is a phenomenon observed in strong tropical cyclones. It is a fairly common event, where the clouds of the eyewall curve outward from the surface with height. This gives the eye an appearance resembling a sports stadium from the air. An eye is always larger at the top of the storm, and smallest at the bottom of the storm because the rising air in the eyewall follows isolines of equal angular momentum, which also slope outward with height. [23] [24] [25]

Eye-like features

An eye-like structure is often found in intensifying tropical cyclones. Similar to the eye seen in hurricanes or typhoons, it is a circular area at the circulation center of the storm in which convection is absent. These eye-like features are most normally found in intensifying tropical storms and hurricanes of Category 1 strength on the Saffir-Simpson scale. For example, an eye-like feature was found in Hurricane Beta when the storm had maximum wind speeds of only 80 km/h (50 mph), well below hurricane force. [26] The features are typically not visible on visible wavelengths or infrared wavelengths from space, although they are easily seen on microwave satellite imagery. [27] Their development at the middle levels of the atmosphere is similar to the formation of a complete eye, but the features might be horizontally displaced due to vertical wind shear. [28] [29]

Hazards

NASA's DC-8 research aircraft flying through the eyewall and into the eye

Though the eye is by far the calmest part of the storm (at least on land), with no wind at the center and typically clear skies, on the ocean it is possibly the most hazardous area. In the eyewall, wind-driven waves all travel in the same direction. In the center of the eye, however, the waves converge from all directions, creating erratic crests that can build on each other to become rogue waves. The maximum height of hurricane waves is unknown, but measurements during Hurricane Ivan when it was a Category 4 hurricane estimated that waves near the eyewall exceeded 40 m (130 ft) from peak to trough. [30]

A common mistake, especially in areas where hurricanes are uncommon, is for residents to exit their homes to inspect the damage while the calm eye passes over, only to be caught off guard by the violent winds in the opposite eyewall. [31]

Other cyclones

The North American blizzard of 2006, an extratropical storm, showed an eye-like structure at its peak intensity (here seen just to the east of the Delmarva Peninsula). 02-12-2006-1245z.png
The North American blizzard of 2006, an extratropical storm, showed an eye-like structure at its peak intensity (here seen just to the east of the Delmarva Peninsula).

Though only tropical cyclones have structures officially termed "eyes", there are other weather systems that can exhibit eye-like features. [1] [32]

Polar lows

Polar lows are mesoscale weather systems, typically smaller than 1,000 km (600 mi) across, found near the poles. Like tropical cyclones, they form over relatively warm water and can feature deep convection and winds of gale force or greater. Unlike storms of tropical nature, however, they thrive in much colder temperatures and at much higher latitudes. They are also smaller and last for shorter durations, with few lasting longer than a day or so. Despite these differences, they can be very similar in structure to tropical cyclones, featuring a clear eye surrounded by an eyewall and bands of rain and snow. [33]

Extratropical cyclones

Extratropical cyclones are areas of low pressure which exist at the boundary of different air masses. Almost all storms found at mid-latitudes are extratropical in nature, including classic North American nor'easters and European windstorms. The most severe of these can have a clear "eye" at the site of lowest barometric pressure, though it is usually surrounded by lower, non-convective clouds and is found near the back end of the storm. [34]

Subtropical cyclones

Subtropical cyclones are low-pressure systems with some extratropical characteristics and some tropical characteristics. As such, they may have an eye while not being truly tropical in nature. Subtropical cyclones can be very hazardous, generating high winds and seas, and often evolve into fully tropical cyclones. For this reason, the National Hurricane Center began including subtropical storms in its naming scheme in 2002. [35]

Tornadoes

Tornadoes are destructive, small-scale storms, which produce the fastest winds on earth. There are two main types: single-vortex tornadoes, which consist of a single spinning column of air, and multiple-vortex tornadoes, which consist of small "suction vortices," resembling mini-tornadoes themselves, all rotating around a common center. Both of these types of tornadoes are theorized to have calm eyes. These theories are supported by doppler velocity observations by weather radar and eyewitness accounts. [36] [37]

Extraterrestrial vortices

A hurricane-like storm on the south pole of Saturn displaying an eyewall tens of kilometers high PIA08333 Saturn storm.jpg
A hurricane-like storm on the south pole of Saturn displaying an eyewall tens of kilometers high

NASA reported in November 2006 that the Cassini spacecraft observed a "hurricane-like" storm locked to the south pole of Saturn with a clearly defined eyewall. The observation was particularly notable as eyewall clouds had not previously been seen on any planet other than Earth (including a failure to observe an eyewall in the Great Red Spot of Jupiter by the Galileo spacecraft). [38] In 2007, very large vortices on both poles of Venus were observed by the Venus Express mission of the European Space Agency to have a dipole eye structure. [39]

See also

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Tornado</span> Violently rotating column of air in contact with both the Earths surface and a cumulonimbus cloud

A tornado is a violently rotating column of air that is in contact with both the surface of the Earth and a cumulonimbus cloud or, in rare cases, the base of a cumulus cloud. It is often referred to as a twister, whirlwind or cyclone, although the word cyclone is used in meteorology to name a weather system with a low-pressure area in the center around which, from an observer looking down toward the surface of the Earth, winds blow counterclockwise in the Northern Hemisphere and clockwise in the Southern. Tornadoes come in many shapes and sizes, and they are often visible in the form of a condensation funnel originating from the base of a cumulonimbus cloud, with a cloud of rotating debris and dust beneath it. Most tornadoes have wind speeds less than 180 kilometers per hour, are about 80 meters across, and travel several kilometers before dissipating. The most extreme tornadoes can attain wind speeds of more than 480 kilometers per hour (300 mph), are more than 3 kilometers (2 mi) in diameter, and stay on the ground for more than 100 km (62 mi).

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Cyclone</span> Large scale rotating air mass

In meteorology, a cyclone is a large air mass that rotates around a strong center of low atmospheric pressure, counterclockwise in the Northern Hemisphere and clockwise in the Southern Hemisphere as viewed from above. Cyclones are characterized by inward-spiraling winds that rotate about a zone of low pressure. The largest low-pressure systems are polar vortices and extratropical cyclones of the largest scale. Warm-core cyclones such as tropical cyclones and subtropical cyclones also lie within the synoptic scale. Mesocyclones, tornadoes, and dust devils lie within the smaller mesoscale.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Wall cloud</span> Cloud formation occurring at the base of a thunderstorm

A wall cloud is a large, localized, persistent, and often abrupt lowering of cloud that develops beneath the surrounding base of a cumulonimbus cloud and from which tornadoes sometimes form. It is typically beneath the rain-free base (RFB) portion of a thunderstorm, and indicates the area of the strongest updraft within a storm. Rotating wall clouds are an indication of a mesocyclone in a thunderstorm; most strong tornadoes form from these. Many wall clouds do rotate; however, some do not.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Funnel cloud</span> Funnel-shaped cloud not touching the ground

A funnel cloud is a funnel-shaped cloud of condensed water droplets, associated with a rotating column of wind and extending from the base of a cloud but not reaching the ground or a water surface. A funnel cloud is usually visible as a cone-shaped or needle like protuberance from the main cloud base. Funnel clouds form most frequently in association with supercell thunderstorms, and are often, but not always, a visual precursor to tornadoes. Funnel clouds are visual phenomena, but these are not the vortex of wind itself.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Fujiwhara effect</span> Meteorological phenomenon involving two cyclones circling each other

The Fujiwhara effect, sometimes referred to as the Fujiwara effect, Fujiw(h)ara interaction or binary interaction, is a phenomenon that occurs when two nearby cyclonic vortices move around each other and close the distance between the circulations of their corresponding low-pressure areas. The effect is named after Sakuhei Fujiwhara, the Japanese meteorologist who initially described the effect. Binary interaction of smaller circulations can cause the development of a larger cyclone, or cause two cyclones to merge into one. Extratropical cyclones typically engage in binary interaction when within 2,000 kilometres (1,200 mi) of one another, while tropical cyclones typically interact within 1,400 kilometres (870 mi) of each other.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Rainband</span> Cloud and precipitation structure

A rainband is a cloud and precipitation structure associated with an area of rainfall which is significantly elongated. Rainbands in tropical cyclones can be either stratiform or convective and are curved in shape. They consist of showers and thunderstorms, and along with the eyewall and the eye, they make up a tropical cyclone. The extent of rainbands around a tropical cyclone can help determine the cyclone's intensity.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Mesoscale convective system</span> Complex of thunderstorms organized on a larger scale

A mesoscale convective system (MCS) is a complex of thunderstorms that becomes organized on a scale larger than the individual thunderstorms but smaller than extratropical cyclones, and normally persists for several hours or more. A mesoscale convective system's overall cloud and precipitation pattern may be round or linear in shape, and include weather systems such as tropical cyclones, squall lines, lake-effect snow events, polar lows, and mesoscale convective complexes (MCCs), and generally forms near weather fronts. The type that forms during the warm season over land has been noted across North and South America, Europe, and Asia, with a maximum in activity noted during the late afternoon and evening hours.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Annular tropical cyclone</span> Tropical cyclone with a symmetrical shape

An annular tropical cyclone is a tropical cyclone that features a normal to large, symmetric eye surrounded by a thick and uniform ring of intense convection, often having a relative lack of discrete rainbands, and bearing a symmetric appearance in general. As a result, the appearance of an annular tropical cyclone can be referred to as akin to a tire or doughnut. Annular characteristics can be attained as tropical cyclones intensify; however, outside the processes that drive the transition from asymmetric systems to annular systems and the abnormal resistance to negative environmental factors found in storms with annular features, annular tropical cyclones behave similarly to asymmetric storms. Most research related to annular tropical cyclones is limited to satellite imagery and aircraft reconnaissance as the conditions thought to give rise to annular characteristics normally occur over open water, well removed from landmasses where surface observations are possible.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Landfall</span> Event of a storm moving over land after being over water

Landfall is the event of a storm moving over land after being over water. More broadly, and in relation to human travel, it refers to 'the first land that is reached or seen at the end of a journey across the sea or through the air, or the fact of arriving there.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Dvorak technique</span> Subjective technique to estimate tropical cyclone intensity

The Dvorak technique is a widely used system to estimate tropical cyclone intensity based solely on visible and infrared satellite images. Within the Dvorak satellite strength estimate for tropical cyclones, there are several visual patterns that a cyclone may take on which define the upper and lower bounds on its intensity. The primary patterns used are curved band pattern (T1.0-T4.5), shear pattern (T1.5–T3.5), central dense overcast (CDO) pattern (T2.5–T5.0), central cold cover (CCC) pattern, banding eye pattern (T4.0–T4.5), and eye pattern (T4.5–T8.0).

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Central dense overcast</span> Large central area of thunderstorms surrounding its circulation center

The central dense overcast, or CDO, of a tropical cyclone or strong subtropical cyclone is the large central area of thunderstorms surrounding its circulation center, caused by the formation of its eyewall. It can be round, angular, oval, or irregular in shape. This feature shows up in tropical cyclones of tropical storm or hurricane strength. How far the center is embedded within the CDO, and the temperature difference between the cloud tops within the CDO and the cyclone's eye, can help determine a tropical cyclone's intensity with the Dvorak technique. Locating the center within the CDO can be a problem with strong tropical storms and minimal hurricanes as its location can be obscured by the CDO's high cloud canopy. This center location problem can be resolved through the use of microwave satellite imagery.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Tropical cyclogenesis</span> Development and strengthening of a tropical cyclone in the atmosphere

Tropical cyclogenesis is the development and strengthening of a tropical cyclone in the atmosphere. The mechanisms through which tropical cyclogenesis occurs are distinctly different from those through which temperate cyclogenesis occurs. Tropical cyclogenesis involves the development of a warm-core cyclone, due to significant convection in a favorable atmospheric environment.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Extratropical cyclone</span> Type of cyclone

Extratropical cyclones, sometimes called mid-latitude cyclones or wave cyclones, are low-pressure areas which, along with the anticyclones of high-pressure areas, drive the weather over much of the Earth. Extratropical cyclones are capable of producing anything from cloudiness and mild showers to severe gales, thunderstorms, blizzards, and tornadoes. These types of cyclones are defined as large scale (synoptic) low pressure weather systems that occur in the middle latitudes of the Earth. In contrast with tropical cyclones, extratropical cyclones produce rapid changes in temperature and dew point along broad lines, called weather fronts, about the center of the cyclone.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Tropical cyclone</span> Rapidly rotating storm system

A tropical cyclone is a rapidly rotating storm system with a low-pressure center, a closed low-level atmospheric circulation, strong winds, and a spiral arrangement of thunderstorms that produce heavy rain and squalls. Depending on its location and strength, a tropical cyclone is called a hurricane, typhoon, tropical storm, cyclonic storm, tropical depression, or simply cyclone. A hurricane is a strong tropical cyclone that occurs in the Atlantic Ocean or northeastern Pacific Ocean, and a typhoon occurs in the northwestern Pacific Ocean. In the Indian Ocean and South Pacific, comparable storms are referred to as "tropical cyclones". In modern times, on average around 80 to 90 named tropical cyclones form each year around the world, over half of which develop hurricane-force winds of 65 kn or more. Tropical cyclones carry heat away from the tropics and transport it towards temperate latitudes. This plays an important role in regulating global climate. Tropical cyclones can be very harmful for people.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Tropical cyclone forecasting</span> Science of forecasting how a tropical cyclone moves and its effects

Tropical cyclone forecasting is the science of forecasting where a tropical cyclone's center, and its effects, are expected to be at some point in the future. There are several elements to tropical cyclone forecasting: track forecasting, intensity forecasting, rainfall forecasting, storm surge, tornado, and seasonal forecasting. While skill is increasing in regard to track forecasting, intensity forecasting skill remains unchanged over the past several years. Seasonal forecasting began in the 1980s in the Atlantic basin and has spread into other basins in the years since.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Meteorological history of Hurricane Jeanne</span>

The meteorological history of Hurricane Jeanne lasted for about two weeks in September 2004. Hurricane Jeanne was the eleventh tropical cyclone, tenth named storm, seventh hurricane, and sixth major hurricane of the 2004 Atlantic hurricane season. It formed from a tropical wave on September 13 near the Lesser Antilles, and encountered favorable enough conditions to reach tropical storm status. Jeanne strengthened further in the eastern Caribbean, becoming a strong tropical storm and developing an eye before striking Puerto Rico on September 15. Remaining well-organized, it attained hurricane status before hitting the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic on September 16.

A mesovortex is a small-scale rotational feature found in a convective storm, such as a quasi-linear convective system, a supercell, or the eyewall of a tropical cyclone. Mesovortices range in diameter from tens of miles to a mile or less and can be immensely intense.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Eyewall replacement cycle</span> Meteorological process around and within the eye of intense tropical cyclones

In meteorology, eyewall replacement cycles, also called concentric eyewall cycles, naturally occur in intense tropical cyclones, generally with winds greater than 185 km/h (115 mph), or major hurricanes. When tropical cyclones reach this intensity, and the eyewall contracts are already small, some of the outer rainbands may strengthen and organize into a ring of thunderstorms—a new, outer eyewall—that slowly moves inward and robs the original, inner eyewall of its needed moisture and angular momentum. Since the strongest winds are in a tropical cyclone's eyewall, the storm usually weakens during this phase, as the inner wall is "choked" by the outer wall. Eventually the outer eyewall replaces the inner one completely, and the storm may re-intensify.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Cold-core low</span> Cyclone with an associated cold pool of air at high altitude

A cold-core low, also known as an upper level low or cold-core cyclone, is a cyclone aloft which has an associated cold pool of air residing at high altitude within the Earth's troposphere, without a frontal structure. It is a low pressure system that strengthens with height in accordance with the thermal wind relationship. If a weak surface circulation forms in response to such a feature at subtropical latitudes of the eastern north Pacific or north Indian oceans, it is called a subtropical cyclone. Cloud cover and rainfall mainly occurs with these systems during the day.

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