Frontier markets

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A frontier market is a term for a type of developing country's market economy which is more developed than a least developed country's, but too small, risky, or illiquid to be generally classified as an emerging market economy. The term is an economic term which was coined by International Finance Corporation’s Farida Khambata in 1992. The term is commonly used [1] to describe the equity markets of the smaller and less accessible, but still "investable" countries of the developing world. The frontier, or pre-emerging equity markets are typically pursued by investors seeking high, long-run return potential as well as low correlations with other markets. [2] Some frontier market countries were emerging markets in the past, but have regressed to frontier status. [3] [4]

Contents

Terminology

The term began use when the IFC Emerging Markets Database (EMDB), led by Farida Khambata, began publishing data on smaller markets in 1992. [5] Khambata coined the term “Frontier Markets” for this set of indices. Standard and Poor's bought EMDB from IFC in 1999 and in October 2007, S&P launched the first investable index, the Select Frontier Index (30 of the largest companies from 11 countries) and the Extended Frontier Index (150 companies from 27 countries). [6] Subsequently, MSCI began a rival frontier market index, [7] and in early 2008, Deutsche Bank launched the first frontier market exchange-traded fund, on the London Stock Exchange. [8] Frontier markets are a sub-set of emerging markets, which have market capitalizations that are small and/or low annual turnover and/or market restrictions unsuitable for inclusion in the larger EM indexes but nonetheless "demonstrate a relative openness to and accessibility for foreign investors" and are not under "extreme economic and political instability." [7]

Members could be considered to fall roughly into three groups:

The term pre-emerging markets is sometimes used as a synonym for "frontier markets", emphasizing the expectation that they will eventually "graduate" to "emerging market" status. [10]

A 2021 analysis proposes the term emerged to describe markets, economies, or countries that have graduated from emerging market status, but have not yet reached the level equivalent to developed countries. [11]

Investment case

Frontier markets have lower market capitalization and liquidity than the more developed, "traditional" emerging markets. The frontier equity markets are typically pursued by investors seeking high, long term returns and low correlations with other markets. [12] [13] [14]

The implication of a country being labeled as Frontier is that, over time, the market will become more liquid and exhibit similar risk and return characteristics as the larger, more liquid emerging markets.

According to frontier market investors, frontier assets would actually diversify and reduce risk, which contradicts the general notion that risk would be added by including those markets. [15]

Those who have a focus on frontier markets have different views on what the future holds for the inter-correlation of countries within the asset class. While they share some economics characteristics such as young, increasing educated populations, the individual economies face different internal and external forces. Funds invest to find returns in countries that have increasing trends in domestic consumption but see the overall growth drivers for each country as being different. [16] [17] This investment thesis holds water as it is unlikely that a manufacturing based economy, such as Bangladesh, would respond in the same way to external shocks as an island nation where a large proportion of the economy is linked to tourism, such as Sri Lanka.

There are also other non managed ways to gain exposure to these markets that are more generic such as investing in frontier market indices such as MSCI Frontier Index that only invest in large liquid stocks.

Frontier markets list

A number of organisations place countries into their Frontier market indices.

CountryFTSE [18] MSCI [19] S&P [20] Russell [21]
Flag of Argentina.svg  Argentina FrontierFrontierFrontierFrontier
Flag of Bahrain.svg  Bahrain FrontierFrontierFrontierFrontier
Flag of Bangladesh.svg  Bangladesh FrontierFrontierFrontierFrontier
Flag of Benin.svg  Benin not ratedFrontier [lower-alpha 1] not ratednot rated
Flag of Bosnia and Herzegovina.svg  Bosnia and Herzegovina not ratedFrontiernot ratedFrontier
Flag of Botswana.svg  Botswana FrontierFrontierFrontierFrontier
Flag of Bulgaria.svg  Bulgaria FrontierFrontierFrontierFrontier
Flag of Burkina Faso.svg  Burkina Faso not ratedFrontier [lower-alpha 1] not ratednot rated
Flag of Cote d'Ivoire.svg  Côte d'Ivoire FrontierFrontier [lower-alpha 1] FrontierFrontier
Flag of Croatia.svg  Croatia FrontierFrontierFrontierFrontier
Flag of Cyprus.svg  Cyprus Frontiernot ratedFrontierFrontier
Flag of Ecuador.svg  Ecuador not ratednot ratedFrontiernot rated
Flag of Estonia.svg  Estonia FrontierFrontierFrontierFrontier
Flag of Egypt.svg  Egypt Secondary emergingEmergingEmergingFrontier
Flag of Gabon.svg  Gabon not ratednot ratednot ratedFrontier
Flag of Ghana.svg  Ghana FrontierFrontierFrontierFrontier
Flag of Guinea-Bissau.svg  Guinea-Bissau not ratedFrontier [lower-alpha 1] not ratednot rated
Flag of Jamaica.svg  Jamaica not ratedFrontierFrontierFrontier
Flag of Jordan.svg  Jordan FrontierFrontierFrontierFrontier
Flag of Kazakhstan.svg  Kazakhstan FrontierFrontierFrontierFrontier
Flag of Kenya.svg  Kenya FrontierFrontierFrontierFrontier
Flag of Kuwait.svg  Kuwait Secondary emergingFrontierFrontierFrontier
Flag of Latvia.svg  Latvia Frontiernot ratedFrontierEmerging
Flag of Lebanon.svg  Lebanon not ratedFrontierFrontiernot rated
Flag of Lithuania.svg  Lithuania FrontierFrontierFrontierFrontier
Flag of North Macedonia.svg  Macedonia Frontiernot ratednot ratednot rated
Flag of Mali.svg  Mali not ratedFrontier [lower-alpha 1] not ratednot rated
Flag of Malta.svg  Malta Frontiernot ratednot ratedFrontier
Flag of Mauritius.svg  Mauritius FrontierFrontierFrontierFrontier
Flag of Morocco.svg  Morocco FrontierFrontierFrontierEmerging
Flag of Namibia.svg  Namibia not ratednot ratedFrontierFrontier
Flag of Niger.svg  Niger not ratedFrontier [lower-alpha 1] not ratednot rated
Flag of Nigeria.svg  Nigeria FrontierFrontierFrontierFrontier
Flag of Oman.svg  Oman FrontierFrontierFrontierFrontier
Flag of Pakistan.svg  Pakistan Secondary emergingFrontierFrontierFrontier
Flag of Panama.svg  Panama not ratedFrontierFrontiernot rated
Flag of Papua New Guinea.svg  Papua New Guinea not ratednot ratednot ratedFrontier
Flag of Qatar.svg  Qatar Secondary emergingEmergingEmergingFrontier
Flag of Romania.svg  Romania Secondary emergingFrontierFrontierFrontier
Flag of Senegal.svg  Senegal not ratedFrontier [lower-alpha 1] not ratedFrontier
Flag of Serbia.svg  Serbia FrontierFrontiernot ratedFrontier
Flag of Slovakia.svg  Slovakia Frontiernot ratedFrontierFrontier
Flag of Slovenia.svg  Slovenia FrontierFrontierFrontierFrontier
Flag of Sri Lanka.svg  Sri Lanka FrontierFrontierFrontierFrontier
Flag of Tanzania.svg  Tanzania not ratednot ratednot ratedFrontier
Flag of Togo.svg  Togo not ratedFrontier [lower-alpha 1] not ratednot rated
Flag of Trinidad and Tobago.svg  Trinidad and Tobago not ratedFrontierFrontierFrontier
Flag of Tunisia.svg  Tunisia FrontierFrontierFrontierFrontier
Flag of Ukraine.svg  Ukraine not ratedFrontiernot ratedFrontier
Flag of Vietnam.svg  Vietnam FrontierFrontierFrontierFrontier
Flag of Zambia.svg  Zambia not ratednot ratedFrontierFrontier
  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Included in MSCI frontier markets category as part of the West African Economic and Monetary Union

Past changes

Colombia was promoted to Emerging market by Standard & Poors effective September 19, 2011. [22] There have been a number of other changes and updates over the years.

See also

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