Hypercane

Last updated

A hypercane is a hypothetical class of extreme tropical cyclone that could form if ocean temperatures reached 50 °C (122 °F), which is 15 °C (27 °F) warmer than the warmest ocean temperature ever recorded. [1] Such an increase could be caused by a large asteroid or comet impact, a large supervolcanic eruption, a large submarine flood basalt, or extensive global warming. [2] There is some speculation that a series of hypercanes resulting from an impact by a large asteroid or comet contributed to the demise of the non-avian dinosaurs. [3] The hypothesis was created by Kerry Emanuel of MIT, who also coined the term. [4] [5] [6]

Tropical cyclone Is a rotating storm system

A tropical cyclone is a rapidly rotating storm system characterized by a low-pressure center, a closed low-level atmospheric circulation, strong winds, and a spiral arrangement of thunderstorms that produce heavy rain. Depending on its location and strength, a tropical cyclone is referred to by different names, including hurricane, typhoon, tropical storm, cyclonic storm, tropical depression, and simply cyclone. A hurricane is a tropical cyclone that occurs in the Atlantic Ocean and northeastern Pacific Ocean, and a typhoon occurs in the northwestern Pacific Ocean; in the south Pacific or Indian Ocean, comparable storms are referred to simply as "tropical cyclones" or "severe cyclonic storms".

Asteroid Minor planet that is not a comet

Asteroids are minor planets, especially of the inner Solar System. Larger asteroids have also been called planetoids. These terms have historically been applied to any astronomical object orbiting the Sun that did not resemble a planet-like disc and was not observed to have characteristics of an active comet such as a tail. As minor planets in the outer Solar System were discovered they were typically found to have volatile-rich surfaces similar to comets. As a result, they were often distinguished from objects found in the main asteroid belt. In this article, the term "asteroid" refers to the minor planets of the inner Solar System including those co-orbital with Jupiter.

Comet Icy small Solar System body

A comet is an icy, small Solar System body that, when passing close to the Sun, warms and begins to release gases, a process called outgassing. This produces a visible atmosphere or coma, and sometimes also a tail. These phenomena are due to the effects of solar radiation and the solar wind acting upon the nucleus of the comet. Comet nuclei range from a few hundred metres to tens of kilometres across and are composed of loose collections of ice, dust, and small rocky particles. The coma may be up to 15 times the Earth's diameter, while the tail may stretch one astronomical unit. If sufficiently bright, a comet may be seen from the Earth without the aid of a telescope and may subtend an arc of 30° across the sky. Comets have been observed and recorded since ancient times by many cultures.

Contents

Description

The relative sizes of Typhoon Tip, Cyclone Tracy, and the United States. Typhoonsizes.jpg
The relative sizes of Typhoon Tip, Cyclone Tracy, and the United States.

In order to form a hypercane, according to Emanuel's hypothetical model, the ocean temperature would have to be at least 49 °C (120 °F). A critical difference between a hypercane and present-day hurricanes, is that a hypercane would extend into the upper stratosphere, whereas present-day hurricanes extend into only the lower stratosphere. [7]

Stratosphere The layer of the atmosphere above the troposphere

The stratosphere is the second major layer of Earth's atmosphere, just above the troposphere, and below the mesosphere. The stratosphere is stratified (layered) in temperature, with warmer layers higher and cooler layers closer to the Earth; this increase of temperature with altitude is a result of the absorption of the Sun's ultraviolet radiation by the ozone layer. This is in contrast to the troposphere, near the Earth's surface, where temperature decreases with altitude. The border between the troposphere and stratosphere, the tropopause, marks where this temperature inversion begins. Near the equator, the stratosphere starts at as high as 20 km, around 10 km at midlatitudes, and at about 7 km at the poles. Temperatures range from an average of −51 °C near the tropopause to an average of −15 °C near the mesosphere. Stratospheric temperatures also vary within the stratosphere as the seasons change, reaching particularly low temperatures in the polar night (winter). Winds in the stratosphere can far exceed those in the troposphere, reaching near 60 m/s in the Southern polar vortex.

Hypercanes would have wind speeds of over 800 km/h (500 mph), which can potentially reach 965 km/h (600 mph), [8] and would also have a central pressure of less than 70 kilopascals (21  inHg ) (700 millibars), giving them an enormous lifespan of at least several weeks. [5] For comparison, the largest and most intense storm on record was 1979's Typhoon Tip, with a wind speed of 305 kilometres per hour (190 mph) and central pressure of 87 kilopascals (26  inHg ) (870 millibars). Such a storm would be nearly eight times more powerful than Hurricane Patricia, the storm with the highest sustained wind speed recorded. [9]

Pascal (unit) SI unit of pressure

The pascal is the SI derived unit of pressure used to quantify internal pressure, stress, Young's modulus and ultimate tensile strength. It is defined as one newton per square metre. It is named after the French polymath Blaise Pascal.

Inch of mercury is a unit of measurement for pressure. It is still used for barometric pressure in weather reports, refrigeration and aviation in the United States.

Typhoon Tip Pacific typhoon in 1979

Typhoon Tip, known in the Philippines as Typhoon Warling, was the largest and most intense tropical cyclone ever recorded. The forty-third tropical depression, nineteenth tropical storm, and twelfth typhoon of the 1979 Pacific typhoon season, Tip developed out of a disturbance within the monsoon trough on October 4 near Pohnpei. Initially, a tropical storm to the northwest hindered the development and motion of Tip, though after the storm tracked farther north, Tip was able to intensify. After passing Guam, Tip rapidly intensified and reached peak sustained winds of 305 km/h (190 mph) and a worldwide record-low sea-level pressure of 870 mbar on October 12. At its peak strength, Tip was the largest tropical cyclone on record, with a wind diameter of 2,220 km (1,380 mi). Tip slowly weakened as it continued west-northwestward and later turned to the northeast, in response to an approaching trough. The typhoon made landfall in southern Japan on October 19, and became an extratropical cyclone shortly thereafter. Typhoon Tip's extratropical remnants continued moving east-northeastward, until they dissipated near the Aleutian Islands on October 24.

The extreme conditions needed to create a hypercane could conceivably produce a system up to the size of North America, [3] creating storm surges of 18 m (59 ft) and an eye nearly 300 km (190 mi) across. The waters could remain hot enough for weeks, allowing more hypercanes to form. A hypercane's clouds would reach 30 km (19 mi) to 40 km (25 mi) into the stratosphere. Such an intense storm would also damage the Earth's ozone layer, potentially having devastating consequences for life on Earth. [5] Water molecules in the stratosphere would react with ozone to accelerate decay into O2 and reduce absorption of ultraviolet light. [10]

North America Continent entirely within the Northern Hemisphere and almost all within the Western Hemisphere

North America is a continent entirely within the Northern Hemisphere and almost all within the Western Hemisphere; it is also considered by some to be a northern subcontinent of the Americas. It is bordered to the north by the Arctic Ocean, to the east by the Atlantic Ocean, to the west and south by the Pacific Ocean, and to the southeast by South America and the Caribbean Sea.

A storm surge, storm flood, tidal surge or storm tide is a coastal flood or tsunami-like phenomenon of rising water commonly associated with low pressure weather systems, the severity of which is affected by the shallowness and orientation of the water body relative to storm path, as well as the timing of tides. Most casualties during tropical cyclones occur as the result of storm surges. It is a measure of the rise of water beyond what would be expected by the normal movement related to tides.

Ozone layer The region of Earths stratosphere that absorbs most of the Suns UV radiation

The ozone layer or ozone shield is a region of Earth's stratosphere that absorbs most of the Sun's ultraviolet radiation. It contains high concentration of ozone (O3) in relation to other parts of the atmosphere, although still small in relation to other gases in the stratosphere. The ozone layer contains less than 10 parts per million of ozone, while the average ozone concentration in Earth's atmosphere as a whole is about 0.3 parts per million. The ozone layer is mainly found in the lower portion of the stratosphere, from approximately 15 to 35 kilometers (9.3 to 21.7 mi) above Earth, although its thickness varies seasonally and geographically.

Mechanism

A hurricane functions as a Carnot heat engine powered by the temperature difference between the sea and the uppermost layer of the troposphere. As air is drawn in towards the eye it acquires latent heat from evaporating sea-water, which is then released as sensible heat during the rise inside the eyewall and radiated away at the top of the storm system. The energy input is balanced by energy dissipation in a turbulent boundary layer close to the surface, which leads to an energy balance equilibrium. [ citation needed ]

Carnot heat engine heat engine

A Carnot heat engine is a theoretical engine that operates on the reversible Carnot cycle. The basic model for this engine was developed by Nicolas Léonard Sadi Carnot in 1824. The Carnot engine model was graphically expanded upon by Benoît Paul Émile Clapeyron in 1834 and mathematically explored by Rudolf Clausius in 1857 from which the concept of entropy emerged.

Latent heat Thermodynamic phase transition energy

Latent heat is thermal energy released or absorbed, by a body or a thermodynamic system, during a constant-temperature process — usually a first-order phase transition.

Sensible heat is heat exchanged by a body or thermodynamic system in which the exchange of heat changes the temperature of the body or system, and some macroscopic variables of the body or system, but leaves unchanged certain other macroscopic variables of the body or system, such as volume or pressure.

However, in Emanuel's model, if the temperature difference between the sea and the top of the troposphere is too large, there is no solution to the equilibrium equation. As more air is drawn in, the released heat reduces the central pressure further, drawing in more heat in a runaway positive feedback. The actual limit to hypercane intensity depends on other energy dissipation factors that are uncertain: whether inflow ceases to be isothermal, whether shock waves would form in the outflow around the eye, or whether turbulent breakdown of the vortex happens. [6] [11]

Eye (cyclone) region of mostly calm weather at the center of strong tropical cyclones

The eye is a region of mostly calm weather at the center of strong tropical cyclones. The eye of a storm is a roughly circular area, typically 30–65 km (20–40 miles) in diameter. It is surrounded by the eyewall, a ring of towering thunderstorms where the most severe weather and highest winds occur. The cyclone's lowest barometric pressure occurs in the eye and can be as much as 15 percent lower than the pressure outside the storm.

See also

Related Research Articles

Cyclone large scale air mass that rotates around a strong center of low pressure

In meteorology, a cyclone is a large scale air mass that rotates around a strong center of low atmospheric pressure. Cyclones are characterized by inward spiraling winds that rotate about a zone of low pressure. The largest low-pressure systems are polar vortices and extratropical cyclones of the largest scale. Warm-core cyclones such as tropical cyclones and subtropical cyclones also lie within the synoptic scale. Mesocyclones, tornadoes and dust devils lie within smaller mesoscale. Upper level cyclones can exist without the presence of a surface low, and can pinch off from the base of the tropical upper tropospheric trough during the summer months in the Northern Hemisphere. Cyclones have also been seen on extraterrestrial planets, such as Mars and Neptune. Cyclogenesis is the process of cyclone formation and intensification. Extratropical cyclones begin as waves in large regions of enhanced mid-latitude temperature contrasts called baroclinic zones. These zones contract and form weather fronts as the cyclonic circulation closes and intensifies. Later in their life cycle, extratropical cyclones occlude as cold air masses undercut the warmer air and become cold core systems. A cyclone's track is guided over the course of its 2 to 6 day life cycle by the steering flow of the subtropical jet stream.

Atmosphere of Earth Layer of gases surrounding the planet Earth

The atmosphere of Earth is the layer of gases, commonly known as air, that surrounds the planet Earth and is retained by Earth's gravity. The atmosphere of Earth protects life on Earth by creating pressure allowing for liquid water to exist on the Earth's surface, absorbing ultraviolet solar radiation, warming the surface through heat retention, and reducing temperature extremes between day and night.

The Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale (SSHWS), formerly the Saffir–Simpson hurricane scale (SSHS), classifies hurricanes – Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones – that exceed the intensities of tropical depressions and tropical storms – into five categories distinguished by the intensities of their sustained winds.

Hurricane Linda (1997) Category 5 Pacific hurricane in 1997

Hurricane Linda was the second-strongest eastern Pacific hurricane on record. Forming from a tropical wave on September 9, 1997, Linda steadily intensified and reached hurricane status within 36 hours of developing. The storm rapidly intensified, reaching sustained winds of 185 mph (295 km/h) and an estimated central pressure of 902 millibars (26.6 inHg); both were records for the eastern Pacific until Hurricane Patricia surpassed them in 2015. The hurricane was briefly forecast to move toward southern California, but instead, it turned out to sea and lost its status as a tropical cyclone on September 17, before dissipating on September 21. Linda was the fifteenth tropical cyclone, thirteenth named storm, seventh hurricane, and fifth major hurricane of the 1997 Pacific hurricane season.

This is a list of meteorology topics. The terms relate to meteorology, the interdisciplinary scientific study of the atmosphere that focuses on weather processes and forecasting.

 y708
Loop Current A warm ocean current that flows northward between Cuba and the Yucatán Peninsula into the Gulf of Mexico, loops east and south and exits to the east through the Florida Straits to join the Gulf Stream

A parent to the Florida Current, the Loop Current is a warm ocean current that flows northward between Cuba and the Yucatán Peninsula, moves north into the Gulf of Mexico, loops east and south before exiting to the east through the Florida Straits and joining the Gulf Stream. The Loop Current is an extension of the western boundary current of the North Atlantic subtropical gyre. Serving as the dominant circulation feature in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico, the Loop Currents transports between 23 and 27 sverdrups and reaches maximum flow speeds of from 1.5 to 1.8 meters/second.

Tropical cyclones are ranked on one of five tropical cyclone intensity scales, according to their maximum sustained winds and which tropical cyclone basin(s) they are located in. Only a few scales of classifications are used officially by the meteorological agencies monitoring the tropical cyclones, but some alternative scales also exist, such as accumulated cyclone energy, the Power Dissipation Index, the Integrated Kinetic Energy Index, and the Hurricane Severity Index.

Atlantic hurricane tropical cyclone that forms in the North Atlantic Ocean

An Atlantic hurricane or tropical storm is a tropical cyclone that forms in the Atlantic Ocean, usually between the months of June and November. A hurricane differs from a cyclone or typhoon only on the basis of location. A hurricane is a storm that occurs in the Atlantic Ocean and northeastern Pacific Ocean, a typhoon occurs in the northwestern Pacific Ocean, and a cyclone occurs in the south Pacific or Indian Ocean.

Hot tower

A hot tower is a tropical cumulonimbus cloud that reaches out of the lowest layer of the atmosphere, the troposphere, and into the stratosphere. In the tropics, the border between the troposphere and stratosphere, the tropopause, typically lies at least 15 kilometres (9.3 mi) above sea level. These formations are called "hot" because of the large amount of latent heat released as water vapor condenses into liquid and freezes into ice. The presence of hot towers within the eyewall of a tropical cyclone can indicate possible future strengthening.

Meteorological history of Hurricane Katrina

Hurricane Katrina was an extremely destructive Category 5 hurricane that affected the majority of the Gulf Coast. Its damaging trek began on August 23, 2005 when it originated as Tropical Depression Twelve near the Bahamas. The next day, the tropical depression strengthened to a tropical storm, and was named Katrina; it proceeded to make landfall on the southern tip of the U.S. state of Florida as a minimal hurricane.

Rapid intensification

Rapid intensification is a meteorological condition that occurs when a tropical cyclone intensifies dramatically in a short period of time. The United States National Hurricane Center (NHC) defines rapid intensification as an increase in the maximum 1-min sustained winds of a tropical cyclone of at least 30 knots in a 24-hour period.

1996 Lake Huron cyclone

The 1996 Lake Huron cyclone was a strong cyclonic storm system that developed over Lake Huron in September 1996. The system resembled a subtropical cyclone at its peak, having some characteristics of a tropical cyclone.

Extratropical cyclone type of cyclone

Extratropical cyclones, sometimes called mid-latitude cyclones or wave cyclones, are low-pressure areas which, along with the anticyclones of high-pressure areas, drive the weather over much of the Earth. Extratropical cyclones are capable of producing anything from cloudiness and mild showers to heavy gales, thunderstorms, blizzards, and tornadoes. These types of cyclones are defined as large scale (synoptic) low pressure weather systems that occur in the middle latitudes of the Earth. In contrast with tropical cyclones, extratropical cyclones produce rapid changes in temperature and dew point along broad lines, called weather fronts, about the center of the cyclone.

1968 Pacific hurricane season hurricane season in the Pacific Ocean

The 1968 Pacific hurricane season ties the record for having the most active August in terms of tropical storms. It officially started on May 15, 1968, in the eastern Pacific and June 1 in the central Pacific and lasted until November 30, 1968. These dates conventionally delimit the period of each year when most tropical cyclones form in the northeastern Pacific Ocean.

Hurricane Caroline Category 3 Atlantic hurricane in 1975

Hurricane Caroline was one of two tropical cyclones to affect northern Mexico during the 1975 Atlantic hurricane season. The third named storm and second hurricane of the season, Caroline developed on August 24 north of the Dominican Republic. The system crossed Cuba and briefly degenerated into a tropical wave due to land interaction. However, upon emergence into the western Caribbean Sea, it was once again designated as a tropical depression after a well-defined circulation was observed on satellite imagery. Moving towards the west-northwest, the cyclone clipped the northern portion of the Yucatán Peninsula before entering the Gulf of Mexico. Caroline was upgraded to a tropical storm on August 29 in the central Gulf of Mexico before rapid intensification began. Early on August 31, Caroline reached its peak intensity with winds of 115 mph (185 km/h), before landfall south of Brownsville, Texas with winds of 105 mph (165 km/h) shortly thereafter. After moving inland, Caroline quickly weakened and dissipated over the mountainous terrain of northeastern Mexico on September 1. There were only two deaths from Caroline, both indirect. However, there was heavy rainfall in southern Texas and Mexico, including almost 12 in (300 mm) at Port Isabel.

Eyewall replacement cycle

Eyewall replacement cycles, also called concentric eyewall cycles, naturally occur in intense tropical cyclones, generally with winds greater than 185 km/h (115 mph), or major hurricanes. When tropical cyclones reach this intensity, and the eyewall contracts or is already sufficiently small, some of the outer rainbands may strengthen and organize into a ring of thunderstorms—an outer eyewall—that slowly moves inward and robs the inner eyewall of its needed moisture and angular momentum. Since the strongest winds are in a cyclone's eyewall, the tropical cyclone usually weakens during this phase, as the inner wall is "choked" by the outer wall. Eventually the outer eyewall replaces the inner one completely, and the storm may re-intensify.

Tropical cyclones and climate change

Tropical cyclones and climate change concerns how tropical cyclones have changed, and are expected to further change, under global warming. The topic receives considerable attention from climate scientists who study the connections between storms and climate, and notably since 2005 makes news during active storm seasons.

Glossary of meteorology Wikimedia list article

This glossary of meteorology is a list of terms and concepts relevant to meteorology and the atmospheric sciences, their sub-disciplines, and related fields.

References

  1. "Temperature of Ocean Water". Windows to the Universe. University Corporation for Atmospheric Research. August 31, 2001. Retrieved July 24, 2008.
  2. Leahy, Stephen (September 16, 2005). "The Dawn of the Hypercane?". Inter Press Service. Archived from the original on May 17, 2008. Retrieved July 24, 2008.
  3. 1 2 Jhaneel Lockhart (2017). "Could a 500 Mph "Hypercane" End Life As We Know It?". Roaring Earth. Retrieved May 13, 2019.
  4. Hecht, Jeff (February 4, 1995). "Did storms land the dinosaurs in hot water?". New Scientist . No. 1963. p. 16. Retrieved July 24, 2008.
  5. 1 2 3 Emanuel, Kerry (September 16, 1996). "Limits on Hurricane Intensity". Center for Meteorology and Physical Oceanography, MIT . Retrieved July 24, 2008.
  6. 1 2 Emanuel, Kerry; Speer, Kevin; Rotunno, Richard; Srivastava, Ramesh; Molina, Mario (July 20, 1995). "Hypercanes: A Possible Link to Global Extinction Scenarios". Journal of Geophysical Research . 100 (D7): 13755–13765. Bibcode:1995JGR...10013755E. doi:10.1029/95JD01368 . Retrieved July 24, 2008.
  7. Emanuel, Kerry (2008). "Hypercane". Mega Disasters (Interview). History Channel.
  8. Michael Cabbage (September 10, 1997). "'HYPERCANE' THEORY PACKS 600 MPH WINDS". South Florida Sun Sentinel. Retrieved May 13, 2019.
  9. Henson, Robert (2008). "Hypercane". Mega Disasters (Interview). History Channel.
  10. "ozone decomposition". www.lenntech.com. Retrieved February 5, 2019.
  11. Emanuel, Kerry A. (1988). "The Maximum Intensity of Hurricanes". Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences. 45 (7): 1143–1155. doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1988)045<1143:TMIOH>2.0.CO;2.