Next Castilian-Manchegan regional election

Next Castilian-Manchegan regional election

←  2023 No later than 23 May 2027
All 33 seats in the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha 17 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Leader Emiliano García-Page Francisco Núñez David Moreno Party PSOE PP Vox Leader since 26 February 2012 7 October 2018 26 December 2022 Leader's seat Toledo Toledo Toledo Last election 17 seats, 45.0% 12 seats, 33.7% 4 seats, 12.8% Current seats 17 12 4 Seats needed In majority 5 13
Incumbent President Emiliano García-Page PSOE

The next Castilian-Manchegan regional election will be held no later than Sunday, 23 May 2027, to elect the 12th Cortes of the autonomous community of Castilla–La Mancha. All 33 seats in the Cortes will be up for election.

Overview

Electoral system

The Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha are the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Castilla–La Mancha, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Castilian-Manchegan Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president. ^[1] Voting for the Cortes is on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprises all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Castilla–La Mancha and in full enjoyment of their political rights.

The 33 members of the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha are elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which includes blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Seats are allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Albacete, Ciudad Real, Cuenca, Guadalajara and Toledo, with each being allocated an initial minimum of three seats and the remaining 18 being distributed in proportion to their populations. ^{[1] [2]}

As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Cortes constituency is entitled the following seats:

Seats	Constituencies
9	Toledo
7	Albacete, Ciudad Real
5	Cuenca, Guadalajara

In smaller constituencies, the use of the electoral method results in an effective threshold based on the district magnitude and the distribution of votes among candidacies. ^[3]

Election date

The term of the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha expires four years after the date of their previous election. Elections to the Cortes are fixed for the fourth Sunday of May every four years. The previous election was held on 28 May 2023, setting the election date for the Cortes on Sunday, 23 May 2027. ^{[1] [2] [4]}

The president has the prerogative to dissolve the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence is in process, no nationwide election is due and some time requirements are met: namely, that dissolution does not occur either during the first legislative session or within the legislature's last year ahead of its scheduled expiry, nor before one year had elapsed since a previous dissolution. Any snap election held as a result of these circumstances will not alter the period to the next ordinary election, with elected deputies merely serving out what remains of their four-year terms. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the candidate from the party with the highest number of seats is to be deemed automatically elected. ^[1]

Parliamentary composition

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups at the present time. ^[5]

Current parliamentary composition

Groups		Parties		Legislators
				Seats	Total
	Socialist Parliamentary Group		PSOE	17	17
	People's Parliamentary Group		PP	12	12
	Vox Parliamentary Group		Vox	4	4

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allows for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election are required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors need to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they seek election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates. ^{[2] [4]}

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which will likely contest the election:

Candidacy		Parties and alliances	Leading candidate		Ideology	Previous result		Gov.	Ref.
						Vote %	Seats
	PSOE	List Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE)		Emiliano García-Page	Social democracy	45.0%	17
	PP	List People's Party (PP)		Francisco Núñez	Conservatism Christian democracy	33.7%	12
	Vox	List Vox (Vox)		David Moreno	Right-wing populism Ultranationalism National conservatism	12.8%	4

Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Graphical summary

Local regression trend line of poll results from 28 May 2023 to the present day, with each line corresponding to a political party.

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 17 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout							SALF	Lead
EM-Analytics/Electomanía [p 1]	27 Nov–27 Dec 2025	1,340	?	44.3 16	35.3 13	14.2 4	1.9 0	0.3 0	2.9 0	–	9.0
SigmaDos/El Mundo [p 2]	19–29 May 2025	1,032	?	47.1 17/18	32.5 11/12	12.5 4	4.0 0	–	–	–	14.6
Idus3/PSOE [p 3]	12–20 May 2025	1,700	?	46.2 18/19	32.8 11/13	12.0 1/3	1.5 0	–	3.3 0	1.3 0	13.4
Target Point/El Debate [p 4]	13–15 May 2025	1,001	?	43.2 15/16	34.6 13	13.4 4/5	4.5 0	–	–	–	8.6
Idus3/PSOE [p 5]	7–10 Jan 2025	1,700	?	46.4 17/19	31.3 10/12	13.7 3/4	[a]	–	3.8 0	–	15.1
NC Report/La Razón [p 6]	25 Nov–13 Dec 2024	1,700	67.0	42.6 15	35.2 14	13.6 4	3.8 0	–	–	–	7.4
2024 EP election	9 Jun 2024	—N/a	50.3	31.7 (12)	41.5 (17)	13.0 (4)	2.2 (0)	0.6 (0)	3.0 (0)	5.0 (0)	9.8
EM-Analytics/Electomanía [p 7]	30 Apr–27 May 2024	1,340	?	46.7 19	35.7 13	10.9 1	0.7 0	1.0 0	2.7 0	–	11.0
The Place Public Affairs/PSOE [p 8]	22 Apr–10 May 2024	4,904	?	47.9 19/20	31.2 10/13	12.5 1/4	–	–	5.4 0	–	16.7
EM-Analytics/Electomanía [p 9]	26 Mar–29 Apr 2024	1,340	?	47.7 19	35.0 13	11.4 1	0.8 0	0.9 0	2.2 0	–	12.7
EM-Analytics/Electomanía [p 10]	29 Jan–26 Feb 2024	1,340	?	47.7 19	34.7 13	10.8 1	0.7 0	1.0 0	2.9 0	–	13.0
EM-Analytics/Electomanía [p 11]	24 Dec–28 Jan 2024	1,340	?	47.4 19	34.5 13	11.2 1	0.7 0	1.0 0	3.0 0	–	12.9
EM-Analytics/Electomanía [p 12]	25 Nov–23 Dec 2023	1,340	?	47.6 19	34.2 13	11.1 1	0.7 0	1.0 0	3.2 0	–	13.4
2023 general election	23 Jul 2023	—N/a	73.0	34.2 (13)	38.9 (14)	17.8 (6)	[a]	–	7.4 (0)	–	4.7
2023 regional election	28 May 2023	—N/a	69.6	45.0 17	33.7 12	12.8 4	4.2 0	1.0 0	–	–	11.3

Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size						SALF	?	N	Lead
Idus3/PSOE [p 3]	12–20 May 2025	1,700	33.4	15.6	7.3	1.0	1.8	0.5	16.9	9.5	17.8
CIS [p 13]	7–31 Mar 2025	376	43.9	16.9	8.3	3.0	2.0	2.0	15.4	5.6	27.0
Idus3/PSOE [p 5]	7–10 Jan 2025	1,700	31.4	19.2	7.9	[a]	2.6	–	27.0	7.2	12.2
2024 EP election	9 Jun 2024	—N/a	16.1	21.1	6.6	1.1	1.5	2.5	—N/a	48.6	5.0
The Place Public Affairs/PSOE [p 8]	22 Apr–10 May 2024	4,904	34.5	19.1	6.9	–	2.5	–	–	–	15.4
2023 general election	23 Jul 2023	—N/a	25.1	28.6	13.1	[a]	5.4	–	—N/a	25.6	3.5
2023 regional election	28 May 2023	—N/a	31.5	23.5	9.0	2.9	–	–	—N/a	28.9	8.0

Preferred President

The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Junta of Communities of Castilla–La Mancha.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size				Other/ None/ Not care	?	Lead
			Page PSOE	Núñez PP	Moreno Vox
Idus3/PSOE [p 14]	12–20 May 2025	1,700	57.7	10.2	–	13.1	18.0	47.5
CIS [b] [p 13]	7–31 Mar 2025	376	35.4	9.8	2.7	7.4	44.9	25.6

Notes

1. Within Sumar.
2. Responses denoting a party's generic candidate are aggregated to that party's main candidate/leader at the time of the poll.

References

Opinion poll sources

1. "EP Castilla-La Mancha (30 dic): Page perdería hoy la Junta". Electomanía (in Spanish). 30 December 2025.
2. "Page apuntala su mayoría y suma otros dos puntos en plena confrontación con Sánchez". El Mundo (in Spanish). 31 May 2025.
3. "Page ampliaría su mayoría absoluta en Castilla-La Mancha". La Tribuna de Albacete (in Spanish). 30 May 2025.
4. "Vuelco en Castilla-La Mancha: el PP y Vox crecen hasta arrebatar la mayoría absoluta a Page". El Debate (in Spanish). 31 May 2025.
5. "El PSOE aumentaría su ventaja con el PP un 15 por ciento". La Tribuna de Albacete (in Spanish). 17 January 2025.
6. "El desgaste nacional del PSOE hiere ya a García-Page ante las urnas". La Razón (in Spanish). 6 January 2025.
7. "Una nueva encuesta otorga la mayoría absoluta al PSOE de Page, con subida del PP y hundimiento de Vox". El Digital CLM (in Spanish). 31 May 2024.
8. "Castilla-La Mancha volvería a dar la mayoría absoluta al PSOE de Page con más votos y escaños que el 28M". El Digital CLM (in Spanish). 28 May 2024.
9. "Una nueva encuesta otorga 19 escaños a Page en Castilla-La Mancha y casi el 48 % de los votos". El Digital CLM (in Spanish). 2 May 2024.
10. "Page mejoraría respecto al 28M y reforzaría su mayoría en Castilla-La Mancha de celebrarse elecciones". El Digital CLM (in Spanish). 4 March 2024.
11. "ElectoPanel C-LM: Page no se inmuta y conservaría la absoluta". Electomanía (in Spanish). 31 January 2024.
12. "El PSOE ampliaría su mayoría absoluta en Castilla-La Mancha". La Tribuna de Toledo (in Spanish). 26 December 2023.
13. "Tendencias y demandas municipales y autonómicas. Comunidad Autónoma de Castilla-La Mancha (Estudio nº 3503. Marzo 2025)". CIS (in Spanish). 1 July 2025.
14. "El 60% de la población aprueba la gestión de Page". La Tribuna de Albacete (in Spanish). 29 May 2025.

Other

1. Ley Orgánica 9/1982, de 10 de agosto, de Estatuto de Autonomía de Castilla-La Mancha (Organic Law 9) (in Spanish). 10 August 1982. Retrieved 15 September 2017.
2. Ley 5/1986, de 23 de diciembre, electoral de Castilla-La Mancha (Law 5) (in Spanish). 23 December 1986. Retrieved 15 September 2017.
3. Gallagher, Michael (30 July 2012). "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. Archived from the original on 30 July 2017. Retrieved 22 July 2017.
4. Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General (Organic Law 5) (in Spanish). 19 June 1985. Retrieved 8 April 2023.
5. "Grupos parlamentarios". Cortes of Castilla–La Mancha (in Spanish). Retrieved 23 April 2024.