Next Irish general election

Last updated

Next Irish general election
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←  2024
No later than January 2030
174 seats in Dáil Éireann
88 seats needed for a majority
PartyLeaderCurrent seats
Fianna Fáil Micheál Martin 48
Sinn Féin Mary Lou McDonald 39
Fine Gael Simon Harris 37
Social Democrats Holly Cairns 11
Labour Ivana Bacik 11
Independent Ireland Michael Collins 4
PBP–Solidarity Collective leadership3
Aontú Peadar Tóibín 2
Green Roderic O'Gorman 1
100% Redress Tomas Seán Devine1
Independent —14
Ceann Comhairle Verona Murphy 1
Vacant 2
Incumbent Taoiseach
Micheál Martin
Fianna Fáil

The next Irish general election to elect the 35th Dáil must be held no later than January 2030.

Contents

Date of election

The 34th Dáil first met on 18 December 2024. Electoral law provides that the "same Dáil shall not continue for a longer period than five years from the date of its first meeting". [1] It must therefore be dissolved no later than 17 December 2029. The taoiseach may advise the president to dissolve at any time. If a taoiseach has ceased to retain the support of the majority of the Dáil, the president may in their absolute discretion refuse to dissolve the Dáil. To date, no president has refused to dissolve the Dáil. When the Dáil is dissolved, the Clerk of the Dáil must issue a writ of election to the returning officer for each constituency. [2] The election must take place on a date set by the Minister for Housing, Local Government and Heritage 18 to 25 days (disregarding any excluded day, being Sundays, public holidays and Good Friday) after the writs have been issued. [3] [4] [5]

Electoral system

There are currently 174 TDs returned in 43 Dáil constituencies of between three and five seats each. The Electoral Commission will be required to review the size of the Dáil and the arrangement of constituencies after the 2027 census. Under the system of single transferable vote (STV), each voter may mark any number of the candidates in order of preference. The quota is determined at the first count in each constituency by dividing the number of valid ballots by one more than the number of seats (for example a quarter of the valid ballots in a three-seat constituency, a fifth of those in a four-seat constituency, and a sixth of those in a five-seat constituency) and then adding one vote. Any candidate reaching or exceeding the quota is elected. [6]

If in the first count fewer candidates reach the quota than the number of seats to be filled, if any successful candidates have more votes than the quota, their surplus is distributed to remaining candidates based on the next usable marked preference on the ballot papers. If it still happens that fewer candidates have reached the quota than the number of seats to be filled, the last-placed candidate is excluded from the count and those ballot papers are transferred to the next usable marked preference. This is repeated until sufficient candidates have reached the quota to fill the available seats, or where a seat remains to be filled in a constituency and no candidate is capable of achieving a quota as there is nobody left to eliminate for a distribution, then the highest place candidate, even if not having quota, is deemed elected. [7] The Ceann Comhairle (Verona Murphy, since December 2024) immediately before the dissolution of the 34th Dáil will automatically be deemed to be elected a member of the 35th Dáil, unless she decides not to seek re-election. This is provided for under the Constitution and electoral law. [8]

Opinion polls

Opinion polling for Irish general elections
Previous
← 2024 polling

Graphical summary

Ireland 2030 polls.svg

Polls

Last date
of polling		CommissionerPolling firmSample
size		Margin
of error		Sources FF FG SF SD Lab Aon II GP PBP–S O/I [nb 1]
3 Feb2026 The Irish Times Ipsos B&A 1,2002.8 [p 1] 19182474344216
30 Jan2026 Sunday Independent Ireland Thinks1,2482.8 [p 2] 181820104663411
21 Jan2026 Business Post Red C 1,0103.0 [p 3] [p 4] 151824105542314
19 Dec2025Sunday IndependentIreland Thinks~1,000~3.0 [p 2] 181722104652411
5 Dec2025Sunday IndependentIreland Thinks1,0693.1 [p 5] 20172485552311
26 Nov2025Business PostRed C1,0103.0 [p 6] 18172284643215
31 Oct2025Sunday IndependentIreland Thinks1,6092.5 [p 7] 18192395652310
21 Oct2025Business PostRed C1,012~3.0 [p 8] 17192394453312
15 Oct2025The Irish TimesIpsos B&A1,2002.8 [p 9] [p 10] 17182756323217
3 Oct2025Sunday IndependentIreland Thinks1,5002.3 [p 11] 20212184641311
9 Sep2025Business PostRed C1,0033.0 [p 12] 18192174363415
5 Sep2025Sunday IndependentIreland Thinks~1,5002.3 [p 13] 22212074442313
1 Aug2025Sunday IndependentIreland Thinks1,3192.7 [p 14] 20202084451314
15 Jul2025The Irish TimesIpsos B&A1,2002.8 [p 15] 221722642– [nb 2] 3222
4 Jul2025Sunday IndependentIreland Thinks1,5322.3 [p 16] 19202085562311
25 Jun2025Business PostRed C1,0083.0 [p 17] 19182174553314
30 May2025Sunday IndependentIreland Thinks1,8572.3 [p 18] 21212095551310
22 May2025Business PostRed C1,0003.0 [p 19] 20192275443313
2 May2025Sunday IndependentIreland Thinks1,6492.5 [p 20] [p 21] 2320228445239
23 Apr2025Business PostRed C1,0003.0 [p 22] 20202473553310
17 Apr2025The Irish TimesIpsos B&A1,2002.8 [p 23] 221626741– [nb 2] 3317
4 Apr2025Sunday IndependentIreland Thinks2,0722.2 [p 24] 2521218444239
26 Mar2025Business PostRed C1,0023.0 [p 25] 22172274443313
28 Feb2025Sunday IndependentIreland Thinks1,3732.7 [p 26] 22222174352211
19 Feb2025Business PostRed C1,0293.0 [p 27] 20202374443311
1 Feb2025Sunday IndependentIreland Thinks1,5912.5 [p 28] [p 29] 2420228444329
22 Jan2025Business PostRed C1,0033.1 [p 30] 22202273433213
11 Jan2025Sunday IndependentIreland Thinks1,2062.9 [p 31] 23.822.319.37.33.85.34.92.32.28.8
29 November 2024 General election ––––21.920.819.04.84.73.93.63.02.815.5
Notes
  1. ↑ The figure for "Others and Independents" is the remainder when all others are removed. As with all such calculations, the figure shown may be slightly inaccurate due to rounding effects.
  2. 1 2 Not specifically mentioned in the report

References

Notes
    Poll references
    1. ↑ Leahy, Pat (5 February 2026). "Taoiseach recovers but Government satisfaction slumps, Irish Times/Ipsos B&A poll finds" . Irish Times.
    2. 1 2 Fiachra, Ó Cionnaith (31 January 2026). "Poll suggests no major change in support of political parties". RTÉ.
    3. ↑ Murray, Daniel (24 January 2026). "Fianna Fáil in freefall: Party plummets in latest Red C Poll" . Business Post.
    4. ↑ "Business Post RED C Opinion Poll Report – January 2026" (PDF). https://redcresearch.com/ .{{cite web}}: External link in |website= (help)
    5. ↑ Thomas, Cónal (7 December 2025). "Support for Fine Gael slumps to a 10-year low, new poll shows" . Irish Independent.
    6. ↑ Murray, Daniel (30 November 2025). "Red C Poll: Fine Gael slumps following Donohoe departure" . Business Post.
    7. ↑ Thomas, Cónal (1 November 2025). "Poll: Support for Sinn Féin rises as Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil see drop after presidential election, new poll shows" . Irish Independent.
    8. ↑ Murray, Daniel (18 October 2025). "Red C poll: Coalition's support hit as Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael face fallout of Connolly election". Business Post. Archived from the original on 26 October 2025.
    9. ↑ Corcoran, Aisling (18 October 2025). "Combined support for Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael at historic low". Irish Times. Archived from the original on 18 October 2025.
    10. ↑ Leahy, Pat (18 October 2025). "Support for Fianna Fáil slumps while Martin's rating falls significantly, new poll shows". Irish Times. Archived from the original on 18 October 2025.
    11. ↑ Tighe, Mark (5 September 2025). "Poll: Sinn Féin neck and neck with Fine Gael as support for Fianna Fáil drops" . Irish Independent.
    12. ↑ Thomas, Cónal (5 September 2025). "Red C Poll: Heather Humphreys leads race for Áras as Jim Gavin trails by four points". Business Post. Archived from the original on 14 September 2025.
    13. ↑ Tighe, Mark (5 September 2025). "Poll: Simon Harris's approval rating dips four points". Irish Independent. Archived from the original on 9 September 2025.
    14. ↑ Monahan, Tabitha (1 August 2025). "Bertie Ahern emerges as preferred Fianna Fáil candidate in race for the Aras, poll shows". Irish Independent. Archived from the original on 2 August 2025.
    15. ↑ Leahy, Pat (17 July 2025). "Irish Times poll: Support for Government parties holds steady as Sinn Féin slumps". The Irish Times. Archived from the original on 17 July 2025. Retrieved 18 July 2025.
    16. ↑ Gataveckaite, Gabija (6 July 2025). "Exclusive poll: Support dips for Taoiseach and Tanaiste amid forecasts of bleak Budget". Irish Independent. Archived from the original on 6 July 2025.
    17. ↑ Thomas, Cónal (28 June 2025). "Red C poll: Stark political divide between homeowners and renters emerges". Business Post. Archived from the original on 28 June 2025.
    18. ↑ Gataveckaite, Gabija (1 June 2025). "Poll: Housing crisis is deepening under the Coalition, public believe". Business Post. Archived from the original on 1 June 2025.
    19. ↑ Thomas, Cónal; O'Leary, Alice (24 May 2025). "Red C poll: Sinn Féin drop as government parties steady". Business Post. Archived from the original on 24 May 2025.
    20. ↑ Gataveckaite, Gabija (3 May 2025). "Poll: Paschal Donohoe is preferred FG leader as Fianna Fáil slumps after 'housing tsar' shambles" . Irish Independent .
    21. ↑ "Sunday Independent/Ireland Thinks poll at a glance: Housing tsars, government blues, Kneecap – and our next president". Irish Independent . Archived from the original on 1 July 2025.
    22. ↑ Thomas, Cónal; O'Leary, Alice (26 April 2025). "Red C Poll: Fine Gael bounce back from record low as Sinn Féin clear Fianna Fáil by four points". Business Post. Archived from the original on 8 August 2025.
    23. ↑ Leahy, Pat (17 April 2025). "Irish Times poll: Sinn Féin back on top as Fine Gael support slides to 30-year low". The Irish Times. Archived from the original on 17 April 2025. Retrieved 17 April 2025.
    24. ↑ Gataveckaite, Gabija (5 April 2025). "Taoiseach Micheál Martin and Fianna Fáil see bounce in support after meeting with Donald Trump, new Sunday Independent poll shows". Irish Independent. Archived from the original on 5 April 2025. Retrieved 5 April 2025.
    25. ↑ Thomas, Cónal (29 March 2025). "Red C Poll: Fine Gael slumps to lowest level of support with party five points behind Fianna Fáil". Business Post. Archived from the original on 29 March 2025.
    26. ↑ Molony, Senan (1 March 2025). "Fine Gael up two points as Fianna Fáil drops, new 'Sunday Independent' opinion poll finds" . Sunday Independent. Retrieved 1 March 2025.
    27. ↑ Moore, Jane (23 February 2025). "Opinion poll: Small drop in support for Fianna Fáil, with respondents citing missed housing targets". TheJournal.ie . Retrieved 23 February 2025.
    28. ↑ Gataveckaite, Gabija (1 February 2025). "Sinn Féin up as Fine Gael slips: Poll reveals housing is still biggest issue for public". Sunday Independent. Archived from the original on 9 February 2025. Retrieved 2 February 2025.
    29. ↑ Cunningham, Paul (1 February 2025). "Support for Sinn Féin has increases while Fine Gael has slid, opinion poll suggests". RTÉ News. Retrieved 2 February 2025.
    30. ↑ Thomas, Cónal (25 January 2025). "Sinn Féin bounce back but government parties in strong position as new coalition gets to work". Business Post. Archived from the original on 25 January 2025. Retrieved 26 January 2025.
    31. ↑ Gataveckaite, Gabija (11 January 2025). "Post-election bounce for Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael but support for Independents falls". Sunday Independent. Archived from the original on 12 January 2025. Retrieved 13 January 2025.
    General references
    1. ↑ Electoral Act 1992, s. 33: Maximum duration of Dáil ( No. 23 of 1992, s. 33 ). Enacted on 5 November 1992. Act of the Oireachtas .Retrieved from Irish Statute Book on 8 June 2021.
    2. ↑ Electoral Act 1992, s. 39: Issue and return of writs ( No. 23 of 1992, s. 39 ). Enacted on 5 November 1992. Act of the Oireachtas .Retrieved from Irish Statute Book on 8 June 2021.
    3. ↑ Electoral Act 1992, s. 96: Times of poll ( No. 23 of 1992, s. 96 ). Enacted on 5 November 1992. Act of the Oireachtas .Retrieved from Irish Statute Book on 8 June 2021.; Electoral (Amendment) Act 2001, s. 23: Amendment of section 96 of Principal Act ( No. 38 of 2001, s. 23 ). Enacted on 24 October 2001. Act of the Oireachtas .Retrieved from Irish Statute Book on 8 June 2021.
    4. ↑ "Dáil Éireann". Citizens Information. 30 August 2023. Archived from the original on 18 March 2024. Retrieved 2 July 2024.
    5. ↑ "Constitution of Ireland". Irish Statute Book. January 2020. Archived from the original on 23 April 2022. Retrieved 2 July 2024.
    6. ↑ A Guide to Ireland's PR-STV Voting System (PDF) (Report). Ireland Department of Housing, Planning & Local Government. November 2018.
    7. ↑ "Dáil Éireann (House of Representatives)". Inter-Parliamentary Union. Archived from the original on 7 March 2016. Retrieved 24 March 2019.; "Electoral Act 1992 [Part XIX]". Irish Statute Book. 5 November 1992. Archived from the original on 14 January 2020. Retrieved 15 January 2020.
    8. ↑ Electoral Act 1992, s. 36: Re-election of outgoing Chairman of Dáil ( No. 23 of 1992, s. 36 ). Enacted on 5 November 1992. Act of the Oireachtas . Archived from the original on 8 December 2015.Retrieved from Irish Statute Book on 16 June 2020.
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