Next Nova Scotia general election

Last updated

42nd Nova Scotia general election
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←  2021 On or before 15 July 2025Next →
55 seats in the Nova Scotia House of Assembly
28 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
  TimHouston.png
LIB
 CLAUDIA-LEADERSHOOT-WEB-10-HeadshotCropped.png
Leader Tim Houston Zach Churchill Claudia Chender
Party Progressive Conservative Liberal New Democratic
Leader since 27 October 2018 9 July 2022 25 June 2022
Leader's seat Pictou East Yarmouth Dartmouth South
Last election31 seats, 38.44%17 seats, 36.67%6 seats, 20.93%
Current seats33156
Seats neededSteady2.svgIncrease2.svg13Increase2.svg22
Incumbent Premier

Tim Houston
Progressive Conservative



The 42nd Nova Scotia general election will be held on or before 15 July 2025 to elect members to the 65th General Assembly of Nova Scotia. During the 2021 election, the Progressive Conservatives included a commitment in their platform to introduce fixed election dates in the province. Under amendments to the provincial Elections Act introduced and passed in October 2021, the first fixed election date following the 2021 Nova Scotia general election is set as 15 July 2025. [1] All subsequent elections are supposed to take place on the third Tuesday in July of the fourth calendar year following the previous election, however Premier Tim Houston has recently indicated he may violate his own legislation [2] .

Contents


Timeline

Changes in seats held (2021–Present)
SeatBeforeChange
DateMemberPartyReasonDateMemberParty
Preston April 1, 2023 [10] Angela Simmonds █  Liberal ResignationAugust 8, 2023 Twila Grosse █  PC
Halifax Atlantic February 22, 2024 [11] Brendan Maguire █  Liberal Joined Progressive Conservative caucus█  PC
Pictou West April 12, 2024 [12] Karla MacFarlane █  PC ResignationMay 21, 2024 Marco MacLeod █  PC

Current standings

Standings in the 64th General Assembly [13]
AffiliationHouse members
2021 election resultsCurrent standings
Progressive Conservative 3133
Liberal 1715
New Democratic 66
Independent 11
Vacant00

Incumbents not running for reelection

The following MLAs announced that they would not run in the next general election:

Progressive Conservative

Candidates by constituency

Legend
bold denotes party leader
† denotes an incumbent who is not running for re-election or was defeated in a nomination contest

Annapolis Valley

Electoral districtCandidatesIncumbent
PCLiberalNDPGreen United
Annapolis Anthony Edmonds [17] Carman Kerr
Clare Ronnie LeBlanc
Digby-Annapolis Jill Balser
Hants West Melissa Sheehy-Richard [18] Brian Casey [19] Melissa Sheehy-Richard
Kings North John Lohr [20] John Lohr
Kings South Keith Irving
Kings West Chris Palmer [21] Chris Palmer

South Shore

Electoral districtCandidatesIncumbent
PCLiberalNDPGreen United
Argyle Lorelei Murphy [22] Colton LeBlanc
Chester-St. Margaret's Danielle Barkhouse [23] Laura Mulrooney [24] Danielle Barkhouse
Lunenburg Susan Corkum-Greek
Lunenburg West Becky Druhan
Queens Kim Masland [25] Kim Masland
Shelburne Nolan Young [26] Nolan Young
Yarmouth Zach Churchill

Fundy-Northeast

Electoral districtCandidatesIncumbent
PCLiberalNDPGreen United Independent
Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley Larry Harrison
Colchester North Tom Taggart [27] Tom Taggart
Cumberland North Elizabeth Smith-McCrossin [28] Elizabeth Smith-McCrossin
Cumberland South Liam MacDonald [28] Tory Rushton
Hants East John A. MacDonald
Truro-Bible Hill-Millbrook-Salmon River Dave Ritcey [29] Dave Ritcey

Central Halifax

Electoral districtCandidatesIncumbent
PCLiberalNDPGreen United
Clayton Park West Rafah DiCostanzo
Fairview-Clayton Park Patricia Arab [30] Patricia Arab
Halifax Armdale Jo-Ann Roberts [17] Ali Duale
Halifax Chebucto Gerard Bray [31] Gary Burrill
Halifax Citadel-Sable Island Lisa Lachance
Halifax Needham Suzy Hansen

Suburban Halifax

Electoral districtCandidatesIncumbent
PCLiberalNDPGreen United
Bedford Basin Kelly Regan
Bedford South Braedon Clark [32] Braedon Clark
Halifax Atlantic Brendan Maguire
Hammonds Plains-Lucasville Ben Jessome
Sackville-Cobequid Steve Craig†
Sackville-Uniacke Brad Johns [33] Brad Johns
Timberlea-Prospect Iain Rankin
Waverley-Fall River-Beaver Bank Brian Wong [34] Brian Wong

Dartmouth/Cole Harbour/Eastern Shore

Electoral districtCandidatesIncumbent
PCLiberalNDPGreen United
Cole Harbour Tony Ince
Cole Harbour-Dartmouth Lorelei Nicoll
Dartmouth East Tim Halman [35] Tim Halman
Dartmouth North Susan Leblanc
Dartmouth South Claudia Chender
Eastern Passage Barbara Adams [36] Barbara Adams
Eastern Shore Kent Smith [37] Kent Smith
Preston Bobby Taylor [38] Twila Grosse

Central Nova

Electoral districtCandidatesIncumbent
PCLiberalNDPGreen United
Antigonish Michelle Thompson
Guysborough-Tracadie Greg Morrow [39] Greg Morrow
Pictou Centre Pat Dunn†
Pictou East Tim Houston [40] Tim Houston
Pictou West Marco MacLeod

Cape Breton

Electoral districtCandidatesIncumbent
PCLiberalNDPGreen United
Cape Breton Centre-Whitney Pier Kendra Coombes
Cape Breton East Brian Comer
Glace Bay-Dominion John White
Inverness Allan MacMaster
Northside-Westmount Fred Tilley
Richmond Trevor Boudreau
Sydney-Membertou Derek Mombourquette
Victoria-The Lakes Keith Bain†

Opinion polls

Voting intentions in Nova Scotia since the 2021 election

NS 42nd election polling.jpg

Polling firmDates conductedLink PC Liberal NDP Green OthersMargin of errorSample sizePolling methodLead
Narrative Research7–29 May 2024 [p 1] 50232232±4.9%400Telephone27
Narrative Research6–17 Feb 2024 [p 2] 49252051±4.9%400Telephone24
Narrative Research1–21 Nov 2023 [p 3] 52212231±4.9%400Telephone30
Narrative Research1–14 Aug 2023 [p 4] 47232442±4.9%400Telephone23
Narrative Research3–16 May 2023 [p 5] 39312451±4.9%400Telephone8
Narrative Research8–23 Feb 2023 [p 6] 46252442±4.6%450Telephone21
Narrative Research2–28 Nov 2022 [p 7] 42272551±4.0%605Telephone15
Narrative Research4–23 Aug 2022 [p 8] 43302241±4.0%585Telephone13
Angus Reid7–13 Jun 2022 [p 9] 46212732±5.0%330Online24
Narrative Research3–22 May 2022 [p 10] 42272541±5.0%380Telephone15
Abacus Data14–21 Apr 2022 [p 11] 393123N/A7±4.4%500Online8
Angus Reid10–15 Mar 2022 [p 12] 47252225±5.0%366Online22
Narrative Research8–23 Feb 2022 [p 13] 44272062±4.9%396Telephone17
Angus Reid7–12 Jan 2022 [p 14] 38282616±6.0%320Online10
MQO Research14–24 Nov 2021 [p 15] 41232753±4.9%400Telephone14
Narrative Research4–21 Nov 2021 [p 16] 42262453±4.2%557Telephone16
Angus Reid29 Sep – 3 Oct 2021 [p 17] 39213245N/A264Online7
2021 general election 17 Aug 2021 [p 18] 38.4336.6720.942.141.41—422,754—1.76
Polling firmDates conductedLinkOthersMargin of errorSample sizePolling methodLead
PC Liberal NDP Green

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References

  1. ↑ Laroche, Jean (13 October 2021). "N.S. government sets third Tuesday in July as new fixed date for elections every 4 years". CBC Nova Scotia. Archived from the original on 29 October 2021. Retrieved 29 October 2021.
  2. ↑ Laroche, Jean (12 June 2024). "Houston no longer wedded to fixed election date his government set in 2021". CBC News. CBC. Retrieved 24 June 2024.
  3. ↑ Grant, Taryn (23 October 2021). "Anthony Edmonds elected leader of N.S. Green Party". CBC Nova Scotia. Archived from the original on 21 October 2022. Retrieved 21 October 2022.
  4. ↑ Burrill, Gary [@GaryBurrill] (9 November 2021). "One of the most important parts of leadership is knowing when the time has come for renewal, and knowing when to bring your own leadership to a conclusion. In my judgement, this is that time. (1/3)" (Tweet). Retrieved 9 November 2021– via Twitter.
  5. ↑ "New Registered Political Party In Nova Scotia". Elections Nova Scotia. 16 December 2021. Archived from the original on 17 December 2021. Retrieved 17 December 2021.
  6. ↑ Gorman, Michael (5 January 2022). "Iain Rankin to step down as N.S. Liberal Party leader". CBC Nova Scotia. Archived from the original on 5 January 2022. Retrieved 5 January 2022.
  7. ↑ Gorman, Michael (25 June 2022). "Claudia Chender officially at helm of Nova Scotia NDP". CBC Nova Scotia. Archived from the original on 28 June 2022. Retrieved 28 June 2022.
  8. ↑ Laroche, Jean [@larochecbc] (9 July 2022). "Former Ed minister Zack Churchill is the new ⁦@LiberalPartyNS leader" (Tweet). Retrieved 9 July 2022– via Twitter.
  9. ↑ Rickard, Kelli (15 March 2024). "Atlantica Party ending". CJLS-FM . Acadia Broadcasting . Retrieved 17 March 2024.
  10. ↑ "Archived copy". Archived from the original on 28 January 2023. Retrieved 28 January 2023.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  11. ↑ Cuthbertson, Richard; Gorman, Michael (22 February 2024). "N.S. Liberal MLA Brendan Maguire joining PCs, named minister of community services". CBC Nova Scotia. Archived from the original on 22 February 2024. Retrieved 22 February 2024.
  12. ↑ "By-election Pending in Pictou West". Elections Nova Scotia . Retrieved 16 April 2024.
  13. ↑ "Nova Scotia Legislature". Nova Scotia Legislature. Archived from the original on 20 August 2021. Retrieved 2 September 2021.
  14. ↑ Gorman, Michael (9 March 2023). "Keith Bain to remain as Speaker during spring session of N.S. legislature". CBC News . Retrieved 11 April 2024.
  15. ↑ Laroche, Jean (13 September 2023). "Cabinet ministers Pat Dunn and Steve Craig won't seek re-election". CBC Nova Scotia. Archived from the original on 15 September 2023. Retrieved 14 September 2023.
  16. ↑ Laroche, Jean (13 September 2023). "Cabinet ministers Pat Dunn and Steve Craig won't seek re-election". CBC Nova Scotia. Archived from the original on 15 September 2023. Retrieved 14 September 2023.
  17. 1 2 "Candidates". Green Party of Nova Scotia . Retrieved 11 April 2024.
  18. ↑ "Melissa Sheehy-Richard to represent Progressive Conservatives in Hants West". Progressive Conservative Association of Nova Scotia . 20 June 2024. Retrieved 20 June 2024.
  19. ↑ "This meeting is to officially nominate Brian Casey as the Candidate in Hants West". Facebook . Hants West Liberal Association. 31 August 2023. Retrieved 10 June 2024.
  20. ↑ "John Lohr to represent Progressive Conservatives in Kings North". Progressive Conservative Association of Nova Scotia . 5 June 2024. Retrieved 5 June 2024.
  21. ↑ "Chris Palmer to represent Progressive Conservatives in Kings West". Progressive Conservative Association of Nova Scotia . 18 June 2024. Retrieved 18 June 2024.
  22. ↑ "Lorelei Murphy Nominated as Liberal Candidate for Argyle". Liberal Party of Nova Scotia . 28 May 2024. Retrieved 2 June 2024.
  23. ↑ "Barkhouse nominated as the PC candidate for Chester-St. Margaret's". Progressive Conservative Association of Nova Scotia . 12 June 2024. Retrieved 12 June 2024.
  24. ↑ "Laura Mulrooney Nominated as Liberal Candidate for Chester-St. Margaret's". Nova Scotia Liberal Party . 21 June 2024. Retrieved 21 June 2024.
  25. ↑ "Kim Masland to represent Progressive Conservatives in Queens". Progressive Conservative Association of Nova Scotia . 17 June 2024. Retrieved 17 June 2024.
  26. ↑ "Nolan Young will be the Progressive Conservative Candidate for Shelburne". Progressive Conservative Association of Nova Scotia . 21 June 2024. Retrieved 21 June 2024.
  27. ↑ "Tom Taggart to represent Progressive Conservatives in Colchester North". Progressive Conservative Association of Nova Scotia . 19 June 2024. Retrieved 19 June 2024.
  28. 1 2 "Candidates and Official Agents". Elections Nova Scotia . Retrieved 11 April 2024.
  29. ↑ "Dave Ritcey to represent Progressive Conservatives in Truro-Bible Hill-Millbrook-Salmon River". Progressive Conservative Association of Nova Scotia . 13 June 2024. Retrieved 13 June 2024.
  30. ↑ "Patricia Arab to Re-Offer for Liberals in Fairview-Clayton Park". Nova Scotia Liberal Party . 13 June 2024. Retrieved 13 June 2024.
  31. ↑ "Gerard Bray Nominated as Liberal Candidate for Halifax Chebucto". Liberal Party of Nova Scotia . 7 June 2024. Retrieved 10 June 2024.
  32. ↑ "Braedon Clark to Re-Offer for Liberals in Bedford South". Nova Scotia Liberal Party . 10 June 2024. Retrieved 10 June 2024.
  33. ↑ "Brad Johns to represent Progressive Conservatives in Sackville-Uniacke". Progressive Conservative Association of Nova Scotia . 7 June 2024. Retrieved 7 June 2024.
  34. ↑ "Brian Wong to represent Progressive Conservatives in Waverley-Fall River-Beaver Bank". Progressive Conservative Association of Nova Scotia . 6 June 2024. Retrieved 7 June 2024.
  35. ↑ "Tim Halman to represent Progressive Conservatives in Dartmouth East". Progressive Conservative Association of Nova Scotia . 10 June 2024. Retrieved 10 June 2024.
  36. ↑ Gorman, Michael (9 June 2024). "Nova Scotia's next provincial election is scheduled for 2025, but parties are lining up candidates now". CBC News . Retrieved 9 June 2024.
  37. ↑ "Kent Smith is the Progressive Conservative Candidate for Eastern Shore". Progressive Conservative Association of Nova Scotia . 11 June 2024. Retrieved 11 June 2024.
  38. ↑ "Bobby Taylor Preston Candidate". Facebook . Nova Scotians United. 19 April 2024. Retrieved 19 April 2024.
  39. ↑ "Greg Morrow to represent Progressive Conservatives in Guysborough-Tracadie". Progressive Conservative Association of Nova Scotia . 24 June 2024. Retrieved 24 June 2024.
  40. ↑ "Tim Houston reoffering in Pictou East". SaltWire . SaltWire Network. 6 June 2024. Retrieved 7 June 2024.

Opinion poll sources

  1. ↑ "The PCs maintain a strong lead in terms of voter support, despite declining levels of satisfaction with the provincial government's performance" (PDF). Narrative Research. 6 June 2024. Retrieved 6 June 2024.
  2. ↑ "NS: The PCs maintain their lead in terms of voter support" (PDF). Narrative Research. 28 February 2024. Retrieved 1 March 2024.
  3. ↑ "NS: The PCs increase their lead in terms of voter support" (PDF). Narrative Research. 5 December 2023. Retrieved 5 December 2023.
  4. ↑ "A majority remain satisfied with the provincial government's performance" (PDF). Narrative Research. 24 August 2023. Retrieved 24 August 2023.
  5. ↑ "While a majority remain satisfied with the provincial government's performance, the PCs have less of a lead in terms of voter support" (PDF). Narrative Research. 24 May 2023. Retrieved 24 May 2023.
  6. ↑ "NS: Satisfaction with Houston government's performance has declined since last November, while voting intentions remain stable" (PDF). Narrative Research. 7 March 2023.
  7. ↑ "Satisfaction with Houston government's performance remains high and stable in NS" (PDF). Narrative Research. 1 December 2022. Archived (PDF) from the original on 2 December 2022. Retrieved 1 December 2022.
  8. ↑ "Satisfaction with NS's Houston government's performance remains high and stable". Narrative Research. August 2022. Archived from the original on 31 August 2022. Retrieved 31 August 2022.
  9. ↑ "Atlantic Spotlight: Soaring inflation, floundering health-care systems leave East Coasters critical of governments". Angus Reid. 13 July 2022. Archived from the original on 14 July 2022. Retrieved 19 July 2022.
  10. ↑ "Satisfaction with NS's Houston government's performance remains high, albeit slightly declined relative to three months ago" (PDF). Narrative Research. May 2022. Archived (PDF) from the original on 25 May 2022. Retrieved 15 June 2022.
  11. ↑ "State of the Province: How Do Nova Scotians Feel About the Provincial Government and Their Political Choices?". Abacus Data. April 2022. Archived from the original on 29 May 2022. Retrieved 2 May 2022.
  12. ↑ "Provincial spotlight: Ontario, Alberta governments heavily criticized on nearly every aspect of provincial management". Angus Reid. March 2022. Archived from the original on 31 March 2022. Retrieved 31 March 2022.
  13. ↑ "Satisfaction with NS's Houston government's performance remains high" (PDF). Narrative Research. 2 March 2022. Archived (PDF) from the original on 2 March 2022. Retrieved 2 March 2022.
  14. ↑ "Spotlight on Provincial Politics: NDP edge PCPO in vote among Ontario voters, CAQ leads comfortably in Quebec" (PDF). Angus Reid Institute. 20 January 2022. Archived (PDF) from the original on 20 January 2022. Retrieved 21 January 2022.
  15. ↑ "Fall/Winter 2021 Provincial Report Nova Scotia" (PDF). MQO Research. November 2021. Archived (PDF) from the original on 12 December 2021. Retrieved 12 December 2021.
  16. ↑ "High satisfaction with the performance of the newly-elected provincial government of Nova Scotia" (PDF). Narrative Research. 29 November 2021. Archived from the original (PDF) on 30 November 2021.
  17. ↑ "Spotlight on the Provinces: Concerns over health care, economy drive increasing dissatisfaction with governments" (PDF). Angus Reid. 27 October 2021. Archived (PDF) from the original on 27 October 2021. Retrieved 3 November 2021.
  18. ↑ "NS 2011 Election Results". Archived from the original on 8 October 2021. Retrieved 3 September 2021.
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