Population projections are attempts to show how the human population statistics might change in the future. [1] These projections are an important input to forecasts of the population's impact on this planet and humanity's future well-being. [2] Models of population growth take trends in human development and apply projections into the future. [3] These models use trend-based-assumptions about how populations will respond to economic, social and technological forces to understand how they will affect fertility and mortality, and thus population growth. [3]
The 2022 projections from the United Nations Population Division (chart #1) show that annual world population growth peaked at 2.3% per year in 1963, has since dropped to 0.9% in 2023, equivalent to about 74 million people each year, and could drop even further to minus 0.1% or rise to between 1 to 2.5% or higher by 2100. [4] Based on this, the UN projected that the world population, 8 billion as of 2023 [update] , would peak around the year 2086 at about 10.4 billion, and then start a slow decline, assuming a continuing decrease in the global average fertility rate from 2.5 births per woman during the 2015–2020 period to 1.8 by the year 2100 (the medium-variant projection). [5] [6]
However, estimates outside of the United Nations have put forward alternative models based on additional downward pressure on fertility (such as successful implementation of education and family planning goals in the UN's Sustainable Development Goals) which could result in peak population during the 2060–2070 period rather than later. [3] [7]
According to the UN, all of the predicted growth in world population between 2020 and 2050 will come from less developed countries and more than half will come from sub-Saharan Africa. [8] Half of the growth will come from just eight countries, five of which are in Africa. [5] [6] The UN predicts that the population of sub-Saharan Africa will double by 2050. [8] The Pew Research Center observes that 50% of births in the year 2100 will be in Africa. [9] Other organizations project lower levels of population growth in Africa, based particularly on improvement in women's education and successful implementation of family planning. [10]
During the remainder of this century, some countries will see population growth and some will see population decline. For example, the UN projects that Nigeria will gain about 340 million people, about the present population of the US, to become the third most populous country, and China will lose almost half of its population. [5] [6]
Even though the global fertility rate continues to fall, chart #2 shows that because of population momentum the global population will continue to grow, although at a steadily slower rate, until the mid 2080s (the median line).
The main driver of long-term future population growth on this planet is projected to be the continuing evolution of fertility and mortality. [3]
Projections of global human population are generally based on birth rates and death rates, and since these are difficult to predict very far into the future, forecasts of global population numbers and growth rates have changed over time.
In 1831, president of Yale college Jeremiah Day included a United States population estimate as an example of an exponential equation. After stating that the 1820 population of the United States was 9,625,000, the projected 2020 population would be 2,464,000,000 (supposing it to double once every 25 years). [12]
Walter Greiling projected in the 1950s that world population would reach a peak of about nine billion in the 21st century and then stop growing after an improvement in public health in less developed countries. [13]
In 1992, the United Nations published five projections of long-term world population growth. According to their medium projection, the world population would grow to 10.0 billion by 2050, 11.2 billion by 2100, and 11.5 billion by 2150. [14]
Estimates published in the early 2000s tended to predict that the population of Earth would stop increasing around 2070. [15] For example in a 2004 long-term prospective report, the United Nations Population Division projected that world population would peak at 9.2 billion in 2075 and then stabilize at a value close to 9 billion out to as far as the year 2300. [16]
Jørgen Randers, one of the authors of the seminal 1972 long-term simulations in The Limits to Growth , offered an alternative scenario in a 2012 book, arguing that traditional projections insufficiently take into account the downward impact of global urbanization on fertility. Randers' "most likely scenario" predicted a peak in world population in the early 2040s at about 8.1 billion people, followed by decline. [17]
In 2012, the UN changed its prediction to the effect that no maximum would likely be reached in the 21st century, and that by the year 2100 world population would increase to somewhere in the range 9.6 to 12.3 billion with 10.9 billion being the midpoint of that range. [18] The main reason for the revision was a recognition that the high fertility rate in Africa was not declining as fast as had been previously assumed. [19]
Another 2014 paper by demographers from several universities, using data from the UN's 2014 report and their own statistical methods, forecast that the world's population would reach about 10.9 billion in 2100 and continue growing thereafter. [20]
In 2017 the UN predicted that global population would reach 11.2 billion by 2100 and still be growing then at the rate of 0.1% per year. [21]
The 2022 revision of the UN's World Population Prospects report [22] represents a departure from the pattern of the previous ten years and expects that a slowing of the population growth rate will lead to a population peak of 10.4 billion in the 2080s, after which it would then begin to slowly fall. This shift from earlier projections of peak population and predicted date of zero population growth comes from a more rapid drop in Africa's birth rate than previous projections had expected. [23] For example, the 2012 report predicted that the population of Nigeria, Africa's most populous country, would rise to 914 million by 2100; the 2022 report lowers that to 546 million, a reduction of 368 million; the 2024 report lowered further to 477 million, a reduction of 69 million. [18] [6] [23] Jose Rimon of Johns Hopkins University suggested, "We have been underestimating what is happening in terms of fertility change in Africa. Africa will probably undergo the same kind of rapid changes as east Asia did." [23]
The population of a country or area grows or declines through the interaction of three demographic drivers: fertility, mortality, and migration. [2]
Fertility is expressed as the total fertility rate (TFR), a measure of the number of children on average that a woman will bear in her lifetime. With longevity trending towards uniform and stable values worldwide, the main driver of future population growth will be the evolution of the fertility rate. [24]
Where fertility is high, demographers generally assume that fertility will decline and eventually stabilize at about two children per woman. [2]
During the period 2015–2020, the average world fertility rate was 2.5 children per woman, about half the level in 1950–1955 (5 children per woman). In the medium variant, global fertility is projected to decline further to 2.2 in 2045–2050 and to 1.8 in 2095–2100. [24] [25]
If the mortality rate is relatively high and the resulting life expectancy is therefore relatively low, changes in mortality can have a material impact on population growth. When the mortality rate is low and life expectancy has therefore risen, a change in mortality has much less of an effect. [2]
Because child mortality has declined substantially over the last several decades, [2] global life expectancy at birth, has risen from 48 years in 1950–1955 to 67 years in 2000–2005, is expected to keep rising to reach 77 years in 2045–2050 and 83 years in 2095–2100. In the more developed regions, the projected increase is from 76 years during the period 2000–2005 to 84 years during the period 2045–2050 and 90 in 2095–2100. Among the less developed countries, where life expectancy during the period 2000–2005 was just under 66 years, it is expected to be 76 years in 2045–2050 and 81 years by 2100. [26] [27]
Migration can have a significant effect on population change. Global south–south migration accounts for 38% of total migration, and global south–north for 34%. [28] For example, the United Nations reports that during the period 2010–2020, fourteen countries will have seen a net inflow of more than one million migrants, while ten countries will have seen a net outflow of similar proportions. The largest migratory outflows have been in response to demand for workers in other countries (Bangladesh, Nepal, and the Philippines) or to insecurity in the home country (Myanmar, Syria, and Venezuela). Belarus, Estonia, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Russia, Serbia, and Ukraine have experienced a net inflow of migrants over the decade, helping to offset population losses caused by a negative natural increase (births minus deaths). [29]
This section describes near-term population changes, up to the year 2050, and long-term population changes, out to the year 2100.
The median scenario of the UN's 2022 World Population Prospects predicts the following populations by region in 2050 compared to population in 2000 and shows the differing growth rates for each over the first half of this century. [25] [6]
2000 | 2050 | Growth | %/yr | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Asia | 3.7 | 5.3 | +43% | +0.7% |
Africa | 0.8 | 2.5 | +212% | +2.3% |
Europe | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0% | 0.0% |
Latin America & the Caribbean | 0.5 | 0.7 | +40% | +0.7% |
Northern America | 0.3 | 0.4 | +33% | +0.6% |
Oceania | 0.03 | 0.06 | +100% | +1.4% |
World | 6.1 | 9.7 | +60% | +0.9% |
Projections of population beyond the year 2050 tend to vary depending on the organization making them because each make their own assumptions of the drivers of population change: fertility, mortality and migration.
The UN Population Division report of 2022 projects world population to continue growing after 2050, although at a steadily decreasing rate, to peak at 10.4 billion in 2086, and then to start a slow decline to about 10.3 billion in 2100 with a growth rate at that time of -0.1%. [6]
This projected growth of population, like all others, depends on assumptions about vital rates. For example, the chart below shows that the UN Population Division assumes that Total fertility rate (TFR), which has been steadily declining since 1963, will continue to decline, at varying paces depending on circumstances in individual regions, to a below-replacement level of 1.8 by 2100. Between now (2020) and 2100, regions with TFR currently below this rate, for example Europe, will see TFR rise. Regions with TFR above this rate will see TFR continue to decline. [25] [24]
Other organizations have published different forecasts.
Other assumptions can produce other results. Some of the authors of the 2004 UN report assumed that life expectancy would rise slowly and continuously. The projections in the report assume this with no upper limit, though at a slowing pace depending on circumstances in individual countries. By 2100, the report assumed life expectancy to be from 66 to 97 years, and by 2300 from 87 to 106 years, depending on the country. Based on that assumption, they expect that rising life expectancy will produce small but continuing population growth by the end of the projections, ranging from 0.03 to 0.07 percent annually. The hypothetical feasibility (and wide availability) of life extension by technological means would further contribute to long term (beyond 2100) population growth. [32] [33] [34]
Evolutionary biology also suggests the demographic transition may reverse itself and global population may continue to grow in the long term. [35] In addition, recent evidence suggests birth rates may be rising in the 21st century in the developed world. [36] Some researchers, such as Jane N. O'Sullivan, contend that many recent population projections have underestimated population growth. She notes that in the last decades, "support for family planning has waned, and global fertility decline has decelerated as a result." [37]
The table below shows that from 2020 to 2050 and beyond to 2100, the bulk of the world's population growth is projected to take place in Africa. Of the additional 1.9 billion people projected between 2020 and 2050, 1.2 billion will be added in Africa, 0.7 billion in Asia and zero in the rest of the world. Africa's share of global population is projected to grow from 17% in 2020 to 25% in 2050 and 38% by 2100, while the share of Asia will fall from 60% in 2020 to 55% in 2050 and 45% in 2100. [5] [6] The strong growth of the African population will happen regardless of the rate of decrease of fertility, because of the high proportion of young people already living today, who are in, or approaching, their fertile years. For example, the UN projects that the population of Nigeria will surpass that of the United States by about 2050. [6]
Region | 2020 | 2050 | Change 2020–50 (bn) | 2100 | Change 2020–2100 (bn) | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
bn | % of Total | bn | % of Total | bn | % of Total | |||
Africa | 1.3 | 17 | 2.5 | 25 | +1.2 | 3.9 | 38 | +2.6 |
Asia | 4.6 | 60 | 5.3 | 55 | +0.7 | 4.7 | 45 | +0.1 |
Other | 1.9 | 23 | 1.9 | 20 | 0.0 | 1.8 | 17 | -0.1 |
More Developed | 1.3 | 17 | 1.3 | 13 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 12 | -0.1 |
Less Developed | 6.5 | 83 | 8.4 | 87 | +1.9 | 9.2 | 88 | +2.7 |
World | 7.8 | 100 | 9.7 | 100 | +1.9 | 10.4 | 100 | +2.6 |
The population of the More Developed regions is slated to remain mostly unchanged, at 1.2-1.3 billion for the remainder of the 21st century. All population growth comes from the Less Developed regions. [5] [6]
The table below breaks out the UN's future population growth predictions by region [5] [6]
Region | 2020–25 (%/yr) | 2045–50 (%/yr) | 2095–2100 (%/yr) |
---|---|---|---|
Africa | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 |
Asia | 0.7 | 0.2 | −0.4 |
Europe | -0.1 | −0.3 | −0.3 |
Latin America & the Caribbean | 0.7 | 0.2 | −0.5 |
Northern America | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Oceania | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
World | 0.9 | 0.5 | -0.1 |
The UN projects that between 2020 and 2100 there will be declines in population growth in all six regions, that by 2100 three of them will be undergoing population decline, and the world will have entered a period of global population decline.
The UN Population Division has calculated the future population of the world's countries, based on current demographic trends. The UN's 2024 report projects world population to be 8.1 billion in 2024, about 9.6 billion in 2050, and about 10.2 billion in 2100. The following table shows the largest 15 countries by population as of 2024, 2050 and 2100 to show how the rankings will change between now and the end of this century. [38]
Country | Population (millions) | Rank | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2024 | 2050 | 2100 | 2024 | 2050 | 2100 | |
India | 1,451 | 1,680 | 1,505 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
China | 1,419 | 1,260 | 632 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Pakistan | 251 | 372 | 511 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
Nigeria | 233 | 359 | 477 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
Democratic Republic of the Congo | 109 | 218 | 431 | 15 | 8 | 5 |
United States | 345 | 381 | 421 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
Ethiopia | 132 | 225 | 367 | 10 | 7 | 7 |
Indonesia | 283 | 320 | 296 | 4 | 6 | 8 |
Tanzania | 69 | 130 | 263 | 22 | 15 | 9 |
Bangladesh | 174 | 215 | 209 | 8 | 10 | 10 |
Egypt | 117 | 162 | 202 | 13 | 11 | 11 |
Brazil | 212 | 217 | 163 | 7 | 9 | 12 |
Angola | 38 | 74 | 150 | 42 | 27 | 13 |
Sudan | 50 | 85 | 137 | 30 | 21 | 14 |
Mexico | 131 | 149 | 130 | 11 | 12 | 15 |
Russian Federation | 145 | 136 | 126 | 9 | 13 | 17 |
Philippines | 115 | 134 | 114 | 14 | 14 | 19 |
Japan | 124 | 105 | 77 | 12 | 17 | 32 |
World | 8,162 | 9,664 | 10,180 |
From 2024 to 2050, the eight highlighted countries are expected to account for about half of the world's projected population increase: India, Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Pakistan, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Egypt, and Indonesia. [38]
Large urban areas are hubs of economic development and innovation, with larger cities underpinning regional economies and local and global sustainability initiatives. Currently, 757 million humans live in the 101 largest cities; [39] these cities are home to 11% of the world's population. [39] By the end of the century, the world population is projected to grow, with estimates ranging from 6.9 billion to 13.1 billion; [39] the percentage of people living in the 101 largest cities is estimated to be 15% to 23%. [39]
The following 101 metropolitan areas with the largest population projections for the years 2025, 2050, 2075, and 2100, according to professors Daniel Hoornweg and Kevin Pope, are listed below. [39]
Demographic features of the population of Burundi include population density, ethnicity, education level, health of the populace, economic status, religious affiliations and other aspects.
The demographic profile of Cameroon is complex for a country of its population. Cameroon comprises an estimated 250 distinct ethnic groups, which may be formed into five large regional-cultural divisions:
Demographic features of the population of the Central African Republic include population density, ethnicity, education level, health of the populace, economic status, religious affiliations and other aspects of the population.
Laos is a country in Southeast Asia. The country's population was estimated at 7.43 million in 2021, dispersed unevenly across the country. Most people live in valleys of the Mekong River and its tributaries. Vientiane Prefecture, which includes Vientiane, the capital and largest city of the country, had 820,924 residents as of the 2015 census. The country's population density is 26.7/km2.
Demographic features of the population of Yemen include population density, ethnicity, education level, health of the populace, economic status, religious affiliations and other aspects of the population.
The total fertility rate (TFR) of a population is the average number of children that are born to a woman over her lifetime, if they were to experience the exact current age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) through their lifetime, and they were to live from birth until the end of their reproductive life.
Sub-replacement fertility is a total fertility rate (TFR) that leads to each new generation being less populous than the older, previous one in a given area. The United Nations Population Division defines sub-replacement fertility as any rate below approximately 2.1 children born per woman of childbearing age, but the threshold can be as high as 3.4 in some developing countries because of higher mortality rates. Taken globally, the total fertility rate at replacement was 2.33 children per woman in 2003. This can be "translated" as 2 children per woman to replace the parents, plus a "third of a child" to make up for the higher probability of males born and mortality prior to the end of a person's fertile life. In 2020, the global average fertility rate was around 2.4 children born per woman.
Population decline, also known as depopulation, is a reduction in a human population size. Throughout history, Earth's total human population has continued to grow; however, current projections suggest that this long-term trend of steady population growth may be coming to an end.
Population ageing is an increasing median age in a population because of declining fertility rates and rising life expectancy. Most countries have rising life expectancy and an ageing population, trends that emerged first in developed countries but are now seen in virtually all developing countries. In most developed countries, the phenomenon of population aging began to gradually emerge in the late 19th century. The aging of the world population occurred in the late 20th century, with the proportion of people aged 65 and above accounting for 6% of the total population. This reflects the overall decline in the world's fertility rate at that time. That is the case for every country in the world except the 18 countries designated as "demographic outliers" by the United Nations. The aged population is currently at its highest level in human history. The UN predicts the rate of population ageing in the 21st century will exceed that of the previous century. The number of people aged 60 years and over has tripled since 1950 and reached 600 million in 2000 and surpassed 700 million in 2006. It is projected that the combined senior and geriatric population will reach 2.1 billion by 2050. Countries vary significantly in terms of the degree and pace of ageing, and the UN expects populations that began ageing later will have less time to adapt to its implications.
Population growth is the increase in the number of people in a population or dispersed group. Actual global human population growth amounts to around 83 million annually, or 1.1% per year. The global population has grown from 1 billion in 1800 to 8.1 billion in 2024. The UN projected population to keep growing, and estimates have put the total population at 8.6 billion by mid-2030, 9.8 billion by mid-2050 and 11.2 billion by 2100. However, some academics outside the UN have increasingly developed human population models that account for additional downward pressures on population growth; in such a scenario population would peak before 2100. Others have challenged many recent population projections as having underestimated population growth.
Human overpopulation is the idea that human populations may become too large to be sustained by their environment or resources in the long term. The topic is usually discussed in the context of world population, though it may concern individual nations, regions, and cities.
The population of Africa has grown rapidly over the past century and consequently shows a large youth bulge, further reinforced by a low life expectancy of below 50 years in some African countries. Total population as of 2024 is about 1.5 billion, with a growth rate of about 100 million every three years. The total fertility rate for Africa is 4.7 as of 2018, the highest in the world according to the World Bank. The most populous African country is Nigeria with over 206 million inhabitants as of 2020 and a growth rate of 2.6% p.a.
Demographic dividend, as defined by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), is "the economic growth potential that can result from shifts in a population’s age structure, mainly when the share of the working-age population is larger than the non-working-age share of the population ". In other words, it is "a boost in economic productivity that occurs when there are growing numbers of people in the workforce relative to the number of dependents". UNFPA stated that "a country with both increasing numbers of young people and declining fertility has the potential to reap a demographic dividend."
The ageing of Europe, also known as the greying of Europe, is a demographic phenomenon in Europe characterised by a decrease in fertility, a decrease in mortality rate, and a higher life expectancy among European populations. Low birth rates and higher life expectancy contribute to the transformation of Europe's population pyramid shape. The most significant change is the transition towards a much older population structure, resulting in a decrease in the proportion of the working age while the number of the retired population increases. The total number of the older population is projected to increase greatly within the coming decades, with rising proportions of the post-war baby-boom generations reaching retirement. This will cause a high burden on the working age population as they provide for the increasing number of the older population.
In world demographics, the world population is the total number of humans currently alive. It was estimated by the United Nations to have exceeded eight billion in mid-November 2022. It took around 300,000 years of human prehistory and history for the human population to reach a billion and only 218 years more to reach 8 billion.
Earth has a human population of over 8 billion as of 2024, with an overall population density of 50 people per km2. Nearly 60% of the world's population lives in Asia, with more than 2.8 billion in the countries of India and China combined. The percentage shares of China, India and rest of South Asia of the world population have remained at similar levels for the last few thousand years of recorded history. The world's literacy rate has increased dramatically in the last 40 years, from 66.7% in 1979 to 86.3% today. Lower literacy levels are mostly attributable to poverty. Lower literacy rates are found mostly in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa.
Australia has an ageing demographic. The proportion of the Australian population aged 65 and over was 15% in 2017, a trend which is expected to continue to grow. It is estimated that by 2057 older people will account for 22% of the Australian population which translates to 8.8 million people. This increase in elderly population is due to what is known as The Australian Baby Boom. This period refers to the post-war era in which total fertility rates (TFR) were approximately 3.0, resulting in 4.19 million births recorded. This number exceeded the number of births in Australia from the previous 20 years in which there were 1.63 million births, and the proceeding 20 years in when 2.56 million births were recorded. The baby boom children will be celebrating their 65th birthday between 2011 and 2030, the age which is referred to as elderly.
Sustainable population refers to a proposed sustainable human population of Earth or a particular region of Earth, such as a nation or continent. Estimates vary widely, with estimates based on different figures ranging from 0.65 billion people to 9.8 billion, with 8 billion people being a typical estimate. Projections of population growth, evaluations of overconsumption and associated human pressures on the environment have led to some to advocate for what they consider a sustainable population. Proposed policy solutions vary, including sustainable development, female education, family planning and broad human population planning.
The Day of Eight Billion, marked on 15 November 2022, was designated by the United Nations as the approximate day when the world population reached eight billion people.
"According to the UN, the term "North" refers to countries or regions traditionally classifi ed for statistical purposes as "developed," while the term "South" refers to those classifi ed as "developing."