Trygve Haavelmo

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Trygve Magnus Haavelmo
Trygve Haavelmo.jpg
Born(1911-12-13)13 December 1911
Died26 July 1999(1999-07-26) (aged 87)
Nationality Norway
Institution University of Aarhus
University of Chicago
University of Oslo
University College London
Field Macroeconomics, econometrics
School or
tradition
Neo-Keynesian economics
Alma mater University of Oslo
Influences John Maynard Keynes
Ragnar Frisch
Jan Tinbergen
ContributionsProbability approach in econometrics
Balanced budget multiplier
Awards Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences (1989)
Information at IDEAS / RePEc

Trygve Magnus Haavelmo (13 December 1911 – 28 July 1999), born in Skedsmo, Norway, was an economist whose research interests centered on econometrics. He received the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences in 1989.

Contents

Biography

After attending Oslo Cathedral School, [1] Haavelmo received a degree in economics from the University of Oslo in 1930 and eventually joined the Institute of Economics with the recommendation of Ragnar Frisch. Haavelmo was Frisch's assistant for a period of time until he was appointed as head of computations for the institute. In 1936, Haavelmo studied statistics at University College London while he subsequently traveled to Berlin, Geneva, and Oxford for additional studies. [2] Haavelmo assumed a lecturing position at the University of Aarhus in 1938 for one year and then in the subsequent year was offered an academic scholarship to travel abroad and study in the United States. During World War II he worked with Nortraship in the Statistical Department in New York City. He received his PhD in 1946 for his work on The Probability Approach in Econometrics.[ citation needed ]

He was a professor of economics and statistics at the University of Oslo between 1948–79 and was the trade department head of division from 1947–48. Haavelmo acquired a prominent position in modern economics through his logical critique of a series of custom conceptions in mathematical analysis.[ citation needed ]

In 1989, Haavelmo was awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics "for his clarification of the probability theory foundations of econometrics and his analyses of simultaneous economic structures." [3]

Haavelmo resided at Østerås in Bærum. [4] He died on 28 July 1999 in Oslo.[ citation needed ]

Legacy

Judea Pearl wrote "Haavelmo was the first to recognize the capacity of economic models to guide policies" and "presented a mathematical procedure that takes an arbitrary model and produces quantitative answers to policy questions". According to Pearl, "Haavelmo's paper, 'The Statistical Implications of a System of Simultaneous Equations', [5] marks a pivotal turning point, not in the statistical implications of econometric models, as historians typically presume, but in their causal counterparts." [6] Haavelmo's idea that an economic model depicts a series of hypothetical experiments and that policies can be simulated by modifying equations in the model became the basis of all currently used formalisms of econometric causal inference.[ citation needed ] (The biostatistics and epidemiology literature on causal inference draws from different sources. [7] ) It was first operationalized by Robert H. Strotz and Herman Wold (1960) [8] who advocated "wiping out" selected equations, and then translated into graphical models as "wiping out" incoming arrows. [9] [10] This operation has subsequently led to Pearl's "do"-calculus [11] [12] and to a mathematical theory of counterfactuals in econometric models. [13] [14] Pearl further speculates that the reason economists do not generally appreciate these revolutionary contributions of Haavelmo is because economists themselves have still not reached consensus of what an economic model stands for, as attested by profound disagreements among econometric textbooks. [15]

Related Research Articles

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Ragnar Frisch</span> Norwegian economist (1895–1973)

Ragnar Anton Kittil Frisch was an influential Norwegian economist known for being one of the major contributors to establishing economics as a quantitative and statistically informed science in the early 20th century. He coined the term econometrics in 1926 for utilising statistical methods to describe economic systems, as well as the terms microeconomics and macroeconomics in 1933, for describing individual and aggregate economic systems, respectively. He was the first to develop a statistically informed model of business cycles in 1933. Later work on the model together with Jan Tinbergen won the two the first Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences in 1969.

Causality is influence by which one event, process, state, or object contributes to the production of another event, process, state, or object where the cause is partly responsible for the effect, and the effect is partly dependent on the cause. In general, a process has many causes, which are also said to be causal factors for it, and all lie in its past. An effect can in turn be a cause of, or causal factor for, many other effects, which all lie in its future. Some writers have held that causality is metaphysically prior to notions of time and space.

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Judea Pearl</span> Computer scientist

Judea Pearl is an Israeli-American computer scientist and philosopher, best known for championing the probabilistic approach to artificial intelligence and the development of Bayesian networks. He is also credited for developing a theory of causal and counterfactual inference based on structural models. In 2011, the Association for Computing Machinery (ACM) awarded Pearl with the Turing Award, the highest distinction in computer science, "for fundamental contributions to artificial intelligence through the development of a calculus for probabilistic and causal reasoning". He is the author of several books, including the technical Causality: Models, Reasoning and Inference, and The Book of Why, a book on causality aimed at the general public.

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References

  1. "Oslo Katedralskole - en skole med tradisjoner". Om skolen (in Norwegian). Oslo katedralskole. Archived from the original on 19 April 2014. Retrieved 19 April 2014.
  2. "Trygve Haavelmo". University of Oslo. Retrieved 4 January 2016.
  3. Prokesch, Steven (12 October 1989). "Norwegian Wins Nobel For His Work in Economics". The New York Times.
  4. "Sky Nobelpros-vinner stakk fra pressen" (in Norwegian). Norwegian News Agency. 11 October 1989.
  5. Haavelmo, T. (1943). "The statistical implications of a system of simultaneous equations". Econometrica. Reprinted in D.F. Hendry and M.S. Morgan (Eds.), The Foundations of Econometric Analysis, Cambridge University Press, New York, 440–453, 1995. 11 (1): 1–43. doi:10.2307/1905714. JSTOR   1905714.
  6. Pearl, Judea (2015). "Trygve Haavelmo and the Emergence of Causal Calculus". Econometric Theory . Forthcoming: 152–179. CiteSeerX   10.1.1.687.1860 . doi:10.1017/S0266466614000231. S2CID   232151859.
  7. Rubin, Donald (2005). "Causal inference using potential outcomes: Design, modeling, decisions". Journal of the American Statistical Association . 100 (469): 322–331. doi:10.1198/016214504000001880. S2CID   842793.
  8. Strotz, R.H.; Wold, H.O.A. (1960). "Recursive versus nonrecursive systems: An attempt at synthesis". Econometrica. 28 (2): 417–427. doi:10.2307/1907731. JSTOR   1907731. S2CID   6584147.
  9. Pearl, Judea (1993). "Comment: Graphical models, causality, and intervention". Statistical Science. 8 (3): 266–269. doi: 10.1214/ss/1177010894 .
  10. Spirtes, P.; Glymour, C. N.; Scheines, R. (1993). Causation, prediction, and search. New York, NY: Springer-Verlag.
  11. Pearl, Judea (1994). Lopez de Mantaras, R.; Poole, D. (eds.). "A probabilistic calculus of actions". Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence 10: 454–462. arXiv: 1302.6835 .
  12. Pearl, Judea (2000). Causality: Models, Reasoning, and Inference (2nd (2009) ed.). New York, NY: Cambridge University Press.
  13. Balke, Alex; Pearl, Judea (1995). Besnard, P.; Hanks, S. (eds.). "Counterfactuals and policy analysis in structural models". Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence 11: 11–18.
  14. Pearl, Judea (2009). Causality: Models, Reasoning, and Inference. Chapter 7 (2nd ed.). New York, NY: Cambridge University Press.
  15. Chen, Bryant; Pearl, Judea (2013). "Regression and Causation: A Critical Examination of Six Econometrics Textbooks" (PDF). Real-World Economics Review. 65: 2–20.
Awards
Preceded by Laureate of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics
1989
Succeeded by