Rate of natural increase

Last updated
The natural increase in population, from the CIA World Factbook, 2017.
.mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{}
>= 30
25 - 29.99
20 - 24.99
15 - 19.99
10 - 14.99
5 - 9.99
0 - 4.99
-5 - -0.01
< -5
Data unavailable Natural increase, 2017 CIA World Factbook.svg
The natural increase in population, from the CIA World Factbook, 2017.
  ≥ 30
  25 – 29.99
  20 – 24.99
  15 – 19.99
  10 – 14.99
  5 – 9.99
  0 – 4.99
  -5 – -0.01
  < -5
  Data unavailable

In Demography, the rate of natural increase (RNI), also known as natural population change, is defined as the birth rate minus the death rate of a particular population, over a particular time period. [1] It is typically expressed either as a number per 1,000 individuals in the population [2] or as a percentage. [3] RNI can be either positive or negative. It contrasts to total population change by ignoring net migration.

Contents

This RNI gives demographers an insight into how a region's population is evolving, and these analyses can inform government attempts to shape RNI.

Examples

Suppose a population of 5,000 individuals experiences 1,150 live births and 900 deaths over the course of one year.

To show the RNI over that year as a percentage, the equation would be

           (1,150 – 900) ÷ 5,000 = 0.05 = +5%

To show the RNI as a number per 1,000 individuals in the population, the equation would be

           (1,150 – 900) ÷ (5,000/1,000) = 250 ÷ 5 = +50

It can also be shown as natural births per 1,000 minus deaths per 1,000

           (1,150 ÷ 5) – (900 ÷ 5) = 230 – 180 = +50

To convert the RNI per 1,000 population to a percentage, divide it by 1,000.  The equation would be

           +50 ÷ 1,000 = 0.05 = +5%

Uses

The rate of natural increase gives demographers an idea of how a region's population is shifting over time. RNI excludes in-migration and out-migration, giving an indication of population growth based only on births and deaths. Comparing natural population change with total population change shows which is dominate for a particular region.  Looking at this difference across regions reveals those that are changing mainly due to births exceeding deaths and those changing mainly due to migration.  The map shows just such an analysis for the US. [1]

Most Influential Component of Change for US Counties That Gained Population Between 2014 and 2015 Most Influential Component of Change for US Counties That Gained Population Between 2014 and 2015.jpg
Most Influential Component of Change for US Counties That Gained Population Between 2014 and 2015

The trend of RNI over time can indicate what stage of the Demographic Transition Model (DTM) a region or country is in.

National efforts to affect RNI

Government attempts to shape the RNI of a region or country are common around the world. [4] Policies can either encourage or discourage an increase in birth rates. For example, during the COVID-19 crisis Singapore offered families a “pandemic baby bonus” to encourage a higher birth rate, therefore increasing RNI. [5] The US has considered similar policies. [6] Another example was China's one-child policy, intended to decrease birth rates, therefore decreasing the RNI. [7]

A country with a good infrastructure to support families, women's health, and maternal/child health would likely have lower death rates from infant or maternal mortality, which would increase RNI.

See also

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Demographics of Cambodia</span> Population analysis

Demographic features of the population of Cambodia include population density, ethnicity, education level, health of the populace, economic status, religious affiliations and other aspects of the population.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Demographics of North Korea</span>

The demographics of North Korea are determined through national censuses and international estimates. The Central Bureau of Statistics of North Korea conducted the most recent census in 2008, where the population reached 24 million inhabitants. The population density is 199.54 inhabitants per square kilometre, and the 2014 estimated life expectancy is 69.81 years. In 1980, the population rose at a near consistent, but low, rate. Since 2000, North Korea's birth rate has exceeded its death rate; the natural growth is positive. In terms of age structure, the population is dominated by the 15–64-year-old segment (68.09%). The median age of the population is 32.9 years, and the gender ratio is 0.95 males to 1.00 female. Since the early 1990s, the birth rate has been fairly stable, with an average of 2 children per woman, down from an average of 3 in the early 1980s.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Demographics of Nepal</span>

The current population of Nepal is 29,164,578 as per the 2021 census. The population growth rate is 0.92% per year.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Demographics of China</span> Aspect of human geography in China

China is the second most populous country in Asia as well as the second most populous country in the world, with a population of 1.409 billion.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Demographics of Singapore</span>

As of June 2023, the population of Singapore stands at 5.92 million. Of these 5.92 million people, 4.15 million are residents, consisting of 3.61 million citizens and 540,000 permanent residents (PRs). The remaining 1.77 million people living in Singapore are classed as non-residents, a group consisting mainly of resident workers without political rights who are routinely excluded from official demographic statistics.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Demographics of the United Kingdom</span>

The population of the United Kingdom was estimated at over 67.0 million in 2020. It is the 21st most populated country in the world and has a population density of 270 people per square kilometre, with England having significantly greater density than Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland. Almost a third of the population lives in south east England, which is predominantly urban and suburban, with about 9 million in the capital city, London, whose population density is just over 5,200 per square kilometre.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Demographics of Ukraine</span>

According to the United Nations, Ukraine has a population of 36,744,636 as of 2023. In July 2023, Reuters reported that due to the refugee outpouring into Western Europe, the population of Kyiv-controlled areas may have decreased to as low as 28 million. This is a steep decline from 2020, when it had a population of almost 42 million people. This is in large part due to the ongoing Ukrainian refugee crisis and loss of territory caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The most recent census of a post-Soviet Ukraine occurred over 20 years ago, in 2001. Thus, much of the information presented here could be inaccurate and/or outdated.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Demography</span> Science that deals with populations and their structures, statistically and theoretically

Demography is the statistical study of human populations: their size, composition, and how they change through the interplay of fertility (births), mortality (deaths), and migration.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Demographics of Bulgaria</span> Demographics of Bulgaria

The demography of the Republic of Bulgaria is monitored by the National Statistical Institute of Bulgaria. Demographic features of the population of Bulgaria include population density, ethnicity, education level, health of the populace, economic status, religious affiliations and others.

In demography, demographic transition is a phenomenon and theory which refers to the historical shift from high birth rates and high death rates in societies with minimal technology, education and economic development, to low birth rates and low death rates in societies with advanced technology, education and economic development, as well as the stages between these two scenarios. In economic growth, the demographic transition has swept the world over the past two centuries, and the unprecedented population growth of the post-Malthusian period was reversed, reducing birth rates and population growth significantly in all regions of the world, and enabling economies to translate more of the gains of factor accumulation and technological progress into per capita income growth. The demographic transition strengthens economic growth process by three changes: (i) reduced dilution of capital and land stock, (ii) increased investment in human capital, and (iii) increased size of the labor force relative to the total population and changed age population distribution. Although this shift has occurred in many industrialized countries, the theory and model are frequently imprecise when applied to individual countries due to specific social, political and economic factors affecting particular populations.

Population dynamics is the type of mathematics used to model and study the size and age composition of populations as dynamical systems.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Birth rate</span> Total number of live births per 1,000 divided by time period

Birth rate, also known as natality, is the total number of live human births per 1,000 population for a given period divided by the length of the period in years. The number of live births is normally taken from a universal registration system for births; population counts from a census, and estimation through specialized demographic techniques. The birth rate is used to calculate population growth. The estimated average population may be taken as the mid-year population.

Zero population growth, sometimes abbreviated ZPG, is a condition of demographic balance where the number of people in a specified population neither grows nor declines; that is, the number of births plus in-migrants equals the number of deaths plus out-migrants. ZPG has been a prominent political movement since the 1960s.

Population decline, also known as depopulation, is a reduction in a human population size. Throughout history, Earth's total human population has continued to grow; however, current projections suggest that this long-term trend of steady population growth may be coming to an end.

The 2010 census estimated Alabama's population at 4,802,740, an increase of 332,636 or 7.5% since 2000. This includes a natural increase of 87,818 and a net migration of 73,178 people into the state. Immigration from outside the United States resulted in a net increase of 30,537 and migration within the country produced a net increase of 42,641.

Population change is simply the change in the number of people in a specified area during a specific time period. Demographics is the study of population statistics, their variation and its causes. These statistics include birth rates, death rates, migration rates and sex ratios. All of these statistics are investigated by censuses and surveys conducted over a period of time. Some demographic information can also be obtained from historical maps, and aerial photographs.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Ageing of Europe</span> Overview of ageing in Europe

The ageing of Europe, also known as the greying of Europe, is a demographic phenomenon in Europe characterised by a decrease in fertility, a decrease in mortality rate, and a higher life expectancy among European populations. Low birth rates and higher life expectancy contribute to the transformation of Europe's population pyramid shape. The most significant change is the transition towards a much older population structure, resulting in a decrease in the proportion of the working age while the number of the retired population increases. The total number of the older population is projected to increase greatly within the coming decades, with rising proportions of the post-war baby-boom generations reaching retirement. This will cause a high burden on the working age population as they provide for the increasing number of the older population.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Population planning in Singapore</span> Two distinct phases of the population planning in Singapore

Population planning in Singapore has reflected various policies to both slow and boost the growth rate of Singapore's population. Singapore first began population planning initiatives in an attempt to slow and reverse the rapid increase in births that began after World War II. Later on, from the 1980s, policy was tailored towards growth, attempting to encourage mothers to have more children. In 2020, the annual total population growth rate in Singapore was -0.3%, and its resident total fertility rate (TFR) was 1.10, below the replacement rate of 2.1.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Projections of population growth</span> Estimated global human population

Population projections are attempts to show how the human population statistics might change in the future. These projections are an important input to forecasts of the population's impact on this planet and humanity's future well-being. Models of population growth take trends in human development and apply projections into the future. These models use trend-based-assumptions about how populations will respond to economic, social and technological forces to understand how they will affect fertility and mortality, and thus population growth.

References

  1. 1 2 Rogers, Luke; Borsella, Peter (March 24, 2016). "Growth or Decline: Understanding How Populations Change". United States Census Bureau.
  2. "World Population Prospects". United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs.
  3. "Estimates, 1950 - 2020: Annually interpolated demographic indicators - Rate of natural increase (per 1,000 population)". Our World In Data.
  4. "Government policies to raise or lower the fertility leve" (PDF). Population Facts, United Nations Department of Economics and Social Affairs. December 2017.
  5. "Singapore offers 'pandemic baby bonus' to boost births". BBC News. October 6, 2020.
  6. Cain Miller, Claire (February 17, 2021). "Would Americans Have More Babies if the Government Paid Them?". New York Times.
  7. Hesketh, Therese; Lu, Li; Xing, Zhu Wei (2005-09-15). "The Effect of China's One-Child Family Policy after 25 Years" (PDF). New England Journal of Medicine. 353 (11): 1171–1176. doi:10.1056/NEJMhpr051833. ISSN   0028-4793. PMID   16162890.