Decision conferencing

Last updated

Decision conferencing is a common approach in decision analysis. It is a socio-technical process to engage key players in solving an issue of concern by (1) developing a shared understanding of the issue, (2) creating a sense of common purpose, and (3) generating a commitment to the way forward. It consists in a series of working meetings, called 'decision conferences'. During a decision conference an impartial facilitator helps participants in developing a formal model of the problem on-the-go. [1] [2] [3]

Contents

History

The idea of decision conferencing is attributed to Cameron Peterson and his colleagues at the Decision & Design Inc. in the late 1970s, which was then developed by the Decision Analysis Unit of the London School of Economics and Political Science led by Lawrence D. Phillips. [4]

Methodology

Socio-technical approaches derive from the seminal work of Eric Trist and Fred Emery, who studied the interaction between people and technology in the work environment.

The technical element of decision conferencing typically consists in the development of a multiple criteria decision analysis model to represent the multiplicity of conflicting objectives involved in a decision. [5]

The social aspect of decision conferencing draws from the literature on group decision processes. Some of this research shows that groups rarely outperform their most knowledgeable members, unless the interaction is mediated by impartial facilitation, decision modelling and information technology. [6]

Some authors argue that the key process taking place in decision conferencing is the behavioral aggregation of expert judgments. [7]

Other authors embed decision conferencing in the larger family of 'facilitated decision modelling' approaches originated in operations research. [8]

Notable applications

Some notable applications of decision conferencing are:

See also

Related Research Articles

Decision-making Cognitive process resulting in choosing a course of action

In psychology, decision-making is regarded as the cognitive process resulting in the selection of a belief or a course of action among several alternative possibilities. Decision-making is the process of identifying and choosing alternatives based on the values, preferences and beliefs of the decision-maker. Every decision-making process produces a final choice, which may or may not prompt action.

The Delphi method is a structured communication technique or method, originally developed as a systematic, interactive forecasting method which relies on a panel of experts. The technique can also be adapted for use in face-to-face meetings, and is then called mini-Delphi or Estimate-Talk-Estimate (ETE). Delphi has been widely used for business forecasting and has certain advantages over another structured forecasting approach, prediction markets.

Morphological analysis (problem-solving) heuristic method

Morphological analysis or general morphological analysis is a method for exploring possible solutions to a multi-dimensional, non-quantified complex problem. It was developed by Fritz Zwicky.

Multiple-criteria decision analysis sub-discipline of operations research that explicitly evaluates multiple conflicting criteria in decision making

Multiple-criteria decision-making (MCDM) or multiple-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is a sub-discipline of operations research that explicitly evaluates multiple conflicting criteria in decision making. Conflicting criteria are typical in evaluating options: cost or price is usually one of the main criteria, and some measure of quality is typically another criterion, easily in conflict with the cost. In purchasing a car, cost, comfort, safety, and fuel economy may be some of the main criteria we consider – it is unusual that the cheapest car is the most comfortable and the safest one. In portfolio management, we are interested in getting high returns while simultaneously reducing risks; however, the stocks that have the potential of bringing high returns typically carry high risk of losing money. In a service industry, customer satisfaction and the cost of providing service are fundamental conflicting criteria.

Mathematical psychology is an approach to psychological research that is based on mathematical modeling of perceptual, thought, cognitive and motor processes, and on the establishment of law-like rules that relate quantifiable stimulus characteristics with quantifiable behavior. The mathematical approach is used with the goal of deriving hypotheses that are more exact and thus yield stricter empirical validations. Quantifiable behavior is in practice often constituted by task performance.

Multi-objective optimization is an area of multiple criteria decision making that is concerned with mathematical optimization problems involving more than one objective function to be optimized simultaneously. Multi-objective optimization has been applied in many fields of science, including engineering, economics and logistics where optimal decisions need to be taken in the presence of trade-offs between two or more conflicting objectives. Minimizing cost while maximizing comfort while buying a car, and maximizing performance whilst minimizing fuel consumption and emission of pollutants of a vehicle are examples of multi-objective optimization problems involving two and three objectives, respectively. In practical problems, there can be more than three objectives.

Fuzzy cognitive map

A fuzzy cognitive map (FCM) is a cognitive map within which the relations between the elements of a "mental landscape" can be used to compute the "strength of impact" of these elements. Fuzzy cognitive maps were introduced by Bart Kosko. Ron Axelrod introduced cognitive maps as a formal way of representing social scientific knowledge and modeling decision making in social and political systems, then brought in the computation fuzzy logic.

Issue-based information system

The issue-based information system (IBIS) is an argumentation-based approach to clarifying wicked problems—complex, ill-defined problems that involve multiple stakeholders. Diagrammatic visualization using IBIS notation is often called issue mapping.

Social translucence is a term that was proposed by Thomas Erickson and Wendy Kellogg to refer to "design digital systems that support coherent behavior by making participants and their activities visible to one another".

Suitability Analysis is the process and procedures used to establish the suitability of a system – that is, the ability of a system to meet the needs of a stakeholder or other user.

European Working Group on Multiple Criteria Decision Aiding

The European Working Group on Multiple Criteria Decision Aiding is a working group whose objective is to promote original research in the field of multicriteria decision aiding at the European level.

In multiple criteria decision aiding (MCDA), multicriteria classification involves problems where a finite set of alternative actions should be assigned into a predefined set of preferentially ordered categories (classes). For example, credit analysts classify loan applications into risk categories, customers rate products and classify them into attractiveness groups, candidates for a job position are evaluated and their applications are approved or rejected, technical systems are prioritized for inspection on the basis of their failure risk, etc.

Kathleen M. Carley is an American social scientist specializing in dynamic network analysis. She is a professor in the School of Computer Science in the Institute for Software Research International at Carnegie Mellon University and also holds appointments in the Tepper School of Business, the Heinz College, the Department of Engineering and Public Policy, and the Department of Social and Decision Sciences.

Transition management is a governance approach that aims to facilitate and accelerate sustainability transitions through a participatory process of visioning, learning and experimenting. In its application, transition management seeks to bring together multiple viewpoints and multiple approaches in a 'transition arena'. Participants are invited to structure their shared problems with the current system and develop shared visions and goals which are then tested for practicality through the use of experimentation, learning and reflexivity. The model is often discussed in reference to sustainable development and the possible use of the model as a method for change.

Expert Choice is decision-making software that is based on multi-criteria decision making.

D-Sight is a company that specializes in decision support software and associated services in the domains of project prioritization, supplier selection and collaborative decision-making. It was founded in 2010 as a spin-off from the Université Libre de Bruxelles (ULB). Their headquarters are located in Brussels, Belgium.

Measuring attractiveness through a categorical-based evaluation technique is the goal of the MACBETH approach that was designed by Carlos António Bana e Costa, from the University of Lisbon, in cooperation with Professor Jean-Claude Vansnick and Dr. Jean-Marie De Corte, from the Université de Mons.

Stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis (SMAA) is a multiple-criteria decision analysis method for problems with missing or incomplete information.

Problem structuring methods

Problem structuring methods (PSMs) are a group of techniques used to model or to map the nature or structure of a situation or state of affairs that some people want to change. PSMs are usually used by a group of people in collaboration to create a consensus about, or at least to facilitate negotiations about, what needs to change. Some widely adopted PSMs include soft systems methodology, the strategic choice approach, and strategic options development and analysis (SODA).

The Hellenic Operational Research Society (HELORS) is the official non-profit society for the scientific field of Operations Research in Greece. The society is a member of the European umbrella organization, the Association of European Operational Research Societies, and of the International Federation of Operational Research Societies.

References

  1. Edwards, Ward; Miles, Ralph F.; von Winterfeldt, Detlof (2007). Advances in Decision Analysis. From Foundations to Applications. New York: Cambridge University Press. pp. 375–399. ISBN   978-0-521-68230-5.
  2. Phillips, Lawrence D. (2006). "Decision Conferencing" (PDF). London School of Economics and Political Science. Retrieved 6 July 2016.
  3. Phillips, Lawrence D.; Bana e Costa, Carlos A. (2007-05-17). "Transparent prioritisation, budgeting and resource allocation with multi-criteria decision analysis and decision conferencing" (PDF). Annals of Operations Research. 154 (1): 51–68. doi:10.1007/s10479-007-0183-3.
  4. "Decision conferencing". www.lawrencephillips.net. Archived from the original on 2014-12-28. Retrieved 2016-07-06.
  5. Drugs, Committee on Ethical and Scientific Issues in Studying the Safety of Approved; Practice, Board on Population Health and Public Health; Medicine, Institute of (2012-05-01). Decision Conferencing and Multicriteria Decision Analysis. National Academies Press (US).
  6. Reagan-Cirincione, Patricia (1994-05-01). "Improving the Accuracy of Group Judgment: A Process Intervention Combining Group Facilitation, Social Judgment Analysis, and Information Technology". Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes. 58 (2): 246–270. doi:10.1006/obhd.1994.1036.
  7. Reagan-Cirincione, Patricia; Rohrbaugh, John (1992-01-01). Wright, George; Bolger, Fergus (eds.). Decision Conferencing A Unique Approach to the Behavioral Aggregation of Expert Judgment. Springer US. pp. 181–201. doi:10.1007/978-0-585-34290-0_9. ISBN   9780306438622.
  8. Franco, Luis A.; Montibeller, Gilberto; Cochran, James J.; Cox, Louis A.; Keskinocak, Pinar; Kharoufeh, Jeffrey P.; Smith, J. Cole (2010-01-01). "On-The-Spot" Modeling And Analysis: The Facilitated Modeling Approach. John Wiley & Sons, Inc. doi:10.1002/9780470400531.eorms0975. ISBN   9780470400531.
  9. CoRWM (2006). "Recommendation to Government" (PDF). Retrieved 6 July 2016.
  10. Airoldi, Mara; Morton, Alec; Smith, Jenifer A. E.; Bevan, Gwyn (2014-11-01). "STAR--people-powered prioritization: a 21st-century solution to allocation headaches" (PDF). Medical Decision Making. 34 (8): 965–975. doi:10.1177/0272989X14546376. ISSN   1552-681X. PMID   25118084.
  11. Airoldi, Mara (2013-12-01). "Disinvestments in practice: overcoming resistance to change through a sociotechnical approach with local stakeholders". Journal of Health Politics, Policy and Law. 38 (6): 1149–1171. doi:10.1215/03616878-2373175. ISSN   1527-1927. PMID   23974471.
  12. Bana e Costa, Carlos A.; Lourenço, João Carlos; Duarte Oliveira, Mónica; Bana e Costa, João C. (2013-01-12). "A socio-technical approach for group decision support in public strategic planning: The Pernambuco PPA case". Group Decision and Negotiation. 23 (1): 5–29. doi:10.1007/s10726-012-9326-2.
  13. Bana e Costa, Carlos A.; Fernances, Tânia G.; Correia, Paulo V. D. (2006-07-01). "Prioritisation of public investments in social infrastructures using multicriteria value analysis and decision conferencing: a case study" (PDF). International Transactions in Operational Research. 13 (4): 279–297. doi:10.1111/j.1475-3995.2006.00549.x.