45th Canadian federal election

Last updated

45th Canadian federal election
Flag of Canada (Pantone).svg
←  2021 On or before October 20, 2025 (2025 -10-20)46th →
343 seats in the House of Commons [lower-alpha 1]
172 [lower-alpha 2] seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Justin Trudeau in May 2023.jpg
Pierre Poilievre in 2023 (edited).jpg
Yves-Francois Blanchet Entrevue no smile 2023 (cropped-2).png
Leader Justin Trudeau Pierre Poilievre Yves-François Blanchet
Party Liberal Conservative Bloc Québécois
Leader since April 14, 2013 September 10, 2022 January 17, 2019
Leader's seat Papineau Carleton Beloeil—Chambly
Last election160 [lower-alpha 3] seats, 32.62%119 seats, 33.74%32 seats, 7.64%
Current seats15611832
Seats neededIncrease2.svg 16Increase2.svg 54N/A [lower-alpha 4]
 
Jagmeet Singh in Brantford 2022 2 (cropped3).jpg
Elizabeth May 4431 (37439753570) (cropped).jpg
Maxime Bernier portrait 2023.png
Leader Jagmeet Singh Elizabeth May Maxime Bernier
Party New Democratic Green People's
Leader since October 1, 2017 November 19, 2022 September 14, 2018
Leader's seat Burnaby South Saanich—Gulf Islands N/A [lower-alpha 5]
Last election25 seats, 17.82%2 seats, 2.33%0 seats, 4.94%
Current seats2420
Seats neededIncrease2.svg 148Increase2.svg 170Increase2.svg 172
Incumbent Prime Minister

Justin Trudeau
Liberal



The 45th Canadian federal election will take place on or before October 20, 2025, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. The date of the vote is determined by the fixed-date provisions of the Canada Elections Act , which requires federal elections to be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the polling day of the previous election, though a current government bill proposes to postpone the date to October 27, 2025 to avoid conflicting with Diwali. [1] In addition to the statutory fixed election date provisions, Canada has a constitutional requirement specified in both section 50 of the Constitution Act, 1867 and section 4 of the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms that elections for the House of Commons must be held no more than five years after the preceding election.

Contents

The election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister for a snap election, for example after the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government. Early elections are more likely to occur during minority governments because the prime minister does not control a majority in the House of Commons. [2] [3] [4]

Depending on the date the election is called, it may be the first contested using a new 343-constituency electoral map based on the 2021 Canadian census. New electoral boundaries for each of the ten provinces were finalized between February 14, 2023 [5] [6] and July 8, 2023, [7] and officially proclaimed on September 22, 2023. [8] Any election that is called on or after April 22, 2024, will use the new boundaries, while any called prior will re-use the 338-seat boundary set presently in force. [9] [8] [10]

Background

The 2021 Canadian federal election, held on September 20 that year, saw little change from the preceding 2019 election. [11] The incumbent Liberal Party, led by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, failed to win a parliamentary majority or the popular vote, but remained the party with the most seats and remained in office as a minority government. The Conservatives won the popular vote and continued as the Official Opposition. [12] [lower-alpha 6] On September 27, Annamie Paul resigned as the Green Party leader, [13] which came into effect on November 10. [14]

Date of the election

The date of the election is determined by the fixed-date provisions of the Canada Elections Act , which requires federal elections to be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the polling day of the previous election. [15] However, a government bill currently under consideration by the House of Commons would change the fixed election date to October 27, 2025 to avoid conflicting with the Hindu festival of Diwali. [1] Moving the election date to October 27, 2025 would also allow 74 members of parliament to qualify for a pension that they would not receive if they fail to achieve reelection, though the government denies this motivated the change. [16]

Political parties and standings

The table below lists parties represented in the House of Commons after the 2021 federal election and their current standings. Kevin Vuong was elected as a Liberal, having been disavowed by the party too late to alter his affiliation on the ballot, and sits as an independent. [17]

NameIdeologyPositionLeader2021 resultCurrent standing
Votes (%)Seats
Liberal Liberalism
Social liberalism 		Centre to centre-left Justin Trudeau
32.62%
160 / 338
156 / 338
Conservative Conservatism
Economic liberalism
Fiscal conservatism 		Centre-right to right-wing Pierre Poilievre
33.74%
119 / 338
118 / 338
Bloc Québécois Quebec nationalism
Quebec sovereigntist
Social democracy 		Centre-left Yves-François Blanchet
7.64%
32 / 338
32 / 338
New Democratic Social democracy (majority)
Democratic socialism (minority)		 Centre-left (majority)
Left-wing (minority)		 Jagmeet Singh
17.82%
25 / 338
24 / 338
Green Green politics Elizabeth May
2.33%
2 / 338
2 / 338
Independents N/A
0.19%
0 / 338
3 / 338
VacantN/A
3 / 338

Electoral system

Redistribution

The Constitution Act, 1867 , requires that federal electoral districts undergo a redistribution following each decennial Canadian census. [18] Using the 2021 Canadian census population results, the 2022 redistribution began in October 2021, and was completed in September 2023. [19]

On October 15, 2021, the chief electoral officer announced that based on the procedure in the Constitution Act, 1867 as then in force, the allocation would result in an increase to 342 seats. [20] This included a reduction of Quebec’s allocation from 78 to 77 seats. The government tabled legislation on March 24, 2022, to prevent Quebec (or any other province) from losing any seats relative to the number of seats it was apportioned in 2012 redistribution. [21] [22] The Preserving Provincial Representation in the House of Commons Act amended rule 2 of subsection 51(1) of the Constitution Act, 1867, commonly known as the "Grandfather Clause". [23] [24] The bill passed the House of Commons on June 15, [25] the Senate on June 21, [26] and received royal assent on June 23, 2022. [27] The chief electoral officer announced the new allocation of seats on July 8, 2022, which would result in an increase to 343 seats. [28]

Pursuant to the Electoral Boundaries Readjustment Act as amended, ten federal electoral boundary commissions were established, one for each province, on November 1, 2021. [29] The boundary-drawing process commenced upon the release of census data in February 2022. Quebec’s commission adjusted its work to be based on a 78-seat allocation in July 2022. The respective commissions completed their work and finalized new electoral boundary sets on a rolling basis, beginning with the Newfoundland and Labrador and Prince Edward Island commissions on February 14, 2023, [5] [6] and finishing with the Ontario commission on July 8, 2023. [7] The Chief Electoral Officer then used the final reports of the electoral boundary commissions to formalize a Representation Order, which was proclaimed on September 22, 2023. [8]

The changes to federal electoral district boundaries will take effect at the earliest on April 22, 2024. [9] [20] [8] If the election is called before April 22, 2024, it will occur with the current electoral district boundaries, which have been in effect since the 2015 federal election was called on August 4, 2015. [30] [31]

Allocation of seats in the House of Commons under the Preserving Provincial Representation in the House of Commons Act
Province or territoryRepresentation ordersAverage population
per electoral district		Change
2013 2023
Ontario 121122116,5901 Increase2.svg
Quebec 7878108,998Steady2.svg
British Columbia 4243116,3001 Increase2.svg
Alberta 3437115,2063 Increase2.svg
Manitoba 141495,868Steady2.svg
Saskatchewan 141480,893Steady2.svg
Nova Scotia 111188,126Steady2.svg
New Brunswick 101077,561Steady2.svg
Newfoundland and Labrador 7772,935Steady2.svg
Prince Edward Island 4438,583Steady2.svg
Northwest Territories 1141,070Steady2.svg
Nunavut 1136,858Steady2.svg
Yukon 1140,232Steady2.svg
Canada338343107,8485Increase2.svg

Notional 2021 results

The transposed results of the 2021 election, if they had taken place under the 2023 Representation Order. 45th Canadian Parliament Map.svg
The transposed results of the 2021 election, if they had taken place under the 2023 Representation Order.

If the election is called after April 22, 2024, it will be contested under the new electoral districts established in the 2022 redistribution. Consequently, media outlets tend to report seat gains and losses as compared to notional results. These are the results if all votes cast in 2021 were unchanged, but regrouped by new electoral district boundaries, as published by Elections Canada. [32]

2021 results transposed onto 2023 boundaries
PartyMPs
2021 actual result2021 notional resultChange
Liberal 160157Decrease2.svg 3
Conservative 119126Increase2.svg 7
Bloc Québécois 3234Increase2.svg 2
New Democratic 2524Decrease2.svg 1
Green 22Steady2.svg
Total seats3383435Increase2.svg

Incumbents not running for re-election

As of April 2024, a total of eighteen MPs have announced they will not run in the 45th federal election.

Member of ParliamentElectoral districtProvince or territoryDate announced
  Ron Liepert [33] Calgary Signal Hill Alberta February 17, 2023
  Wayne Long [34] Saint John—Rothesay New Brunswick March 14, 2023
  Randall Garrison [35] Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke British Columbia April 27, 2023
  Ken Hardie [36] Fleetwood—Port Kells British Columbia May 26, 2023
  Lloyd Longfield [37] Guelph Ontario June 28, 2023
  Helena Jaczek [38] Markham—Stouffville Ontario July 25, 2023
  Joyce Murray [39] Vancouver Quadra British Columbia July 25, 2023
  Omar Alghabra [40] Mississauga Centre Ontario July 25, 2023
  Alain Rayes [41] Richmond—Arthabaska Quebec September 11, 2023
  Richard Cannings [42] South Okanagan—West Kootenay British Columbia September 12, 2023
  Anthony Rota [43] Nipissing—Timiskaming Ontario October 23, 2023
  Emmanuel Dubourg [44] Bourassa Quebec November 1, 2023
  Nathaniel Erskine-Smith [45] Beaches—East York Ontario December 7, 2023
  Tony Van Bynen [46] Newmarket—Aurora Ontario March 11, 2024
  Ed Fast [47] Abbotsford British Columbia March 14, 2024
  Charlie Angus [48] Timmins—James Bay Ontario April 4, 2024
  Carol Hughes [49] Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing Ontario April 4, 2024
  Rachel Blaney [50] North Island—Powell River British Columbia April 4, 2024

Timeline

Changes in seats held (2021–)
House of Commons – Changes in seats held
SeatBeforeChange
DateMemberPartyReasonDateMemberParty
Spadina—Fort York November 22, 2021 Kevin Vuong █  Liberal Excluded from caucus█  Independent
Mississauga—Lakeshore May 27, 2022 Sven Spengemann █  Liberal Resigned [a 1] December 12, 2022 Charles Sousa █  Liberal
Richmond—Arthabaska September 13, 2022 Alain Rayes █  Conservative Left caucus█  Independent
Winnipeg South Centre December 12, 2022 Jim Carr █  Liberal DeathJune 19, 2023 Ben Carr █  Liberal
Calgary Heritage December 31, 2022 Bob Benzen █  Conservative ResignedJuly 24, 2023 Shuvaloy Majumdar █  Conservative
Oxford January 27, 2023 Dave MacKenzie █  Conservative ResignedJune 19, 2023 Arpan Khanna █  Conservative
Portage—Lisgar February 28, 2023 Candice Bergen █  Conservative ResignedJune 19, 2023 Branden Leslie █  Conservative
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount March 8, 2023 Marc Garneau █  Liberal ResignedJune 19, 2023 Anna Gainey █  Liberal
Don Valley North March 22, 2023 Han Dong █  Liberal Left caucus█  Independent
Durham August 1, 2023 Erin O'Toole █  Conservative ResignedMarch 4, 2024 Jamil Jivani █  Conservative
Toronto—St. Paul's January 16, 2024 Carolyn Bennett █  Liberal Resigned [51] █ Vacant
LaSalle—Émard—Verdun February 1, 2024 David Lametti █  Liberal Resigned [52] █ Vacant
Elmwood—Transcona March 31, 2024 Daniel Blaikie █  New Democratic Resigned [53] █ Vacant
  1. ↑ to accept a position with the United Nations

2021

2022

2023

2024

Opinion polls

Evolution of voting intentions according to polls conducted during the pre-campaign period of the 45th Canadian federal election, graphed from the data in the table below. Trendlines are 30-poll local regressions, with polls weighted by proximity in time and a logarithmic function of sample size. 95% confidence ribbons represent uncertainty about the trendlines, not the likelihood that actual election results would fall within the intervals. Opinion polling during the pre-campaign period of the 45th Canadian federal election.svg
Evolution of voting intentions according to polls conducted during the pre-campaign period of the 45th Canadian federal election, graphed from the data in the table below. Trendlines are 30-poll local regressions, with polls weighted by proximity in time and a logarithmic function of sample size. 95% confidence ribbons represent uncertainty about the trendlines, not the likelihood that actual election results would fall within the intervals.

Notes

  1. ↑ If the election is called prior to April 22, 2024, implementation of the redistribution will be deferred and the total number of seats will remain at 338.
  2. ↑ If the election is called prior to April 22, 2024, implementation of the redistribution will be deferred and the number of seats required for a majority will remain at 170.
  3. ↑ Includes Kevin Vuong, who appeared on the ballot as a Liberal but was disavowed by the party during the campaign. He has not been seated as a member of the Liberal caucus.
  4. ↑ Though parties registered with Elections Canada can field candidates in any riding they wish, the Bloc Québécois has never fielded candidates outside of Quebec (78 seats). Thus it is impossible for the party to gain a majority in Parliament.
  5. ↑ MP for Beauce until being defeated in the 2019 election. Contested the by-election in Portage–Lisgar, lost.
  6. ↑ While formal results show the Liberals winning or leading in 160 seats, those totals include Kevin Vuong, who was disavowed during the campaign by his party, and has since sat as an Independent in the House of Commons.

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References

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  2. ↑ Aiello, Rachel (October 24, 2019). "Split opposition means stronger minority for Liberals, experts say". CTV News. Retrieved October 25, 2019.
  3. ↑ Harris, Kathleen (October 21, 2020). "Snap election averted as Liberal government survives confidence vote in Commons". CBC News . Retrieved November 26, 2020.
  4. ↑ Coyne, Andrew (October 28, 2020). "What, exactly, is a non-confidence vote? Parliament should get to decide". The Globe and Mail . Retrieved November 26, 2020.
  5. 1 2 Federal Electoral Boundaries Commission for Newfoundland and Labrador. "Redistribution process timeline in Newfoundland and Labrador".
  6. 1 2 Federal Electoral Boundaries Commission for Prince Edward Island. "Redistribution process timeline in PEI".
  7. 1 2 Federal Electoral Boundaries Commission for Ontario. "Redistribution process timeline in Ontario".
  8. 1 2 3 4 Elections Canada. "Implementation of New Federal Electoral Boundaries".
  9. 1 2 Federal Electoral Boundaries Commission. "Timeline for the Redistribution of Federal Electoral Districts".
  10. ↑ Proclamation declaring the Representation Order to be in Force effective on the First dissolution of Parliament that Occurs after April 22, 2024 , SI/2023-57 , reported in the Canada Gazette , Part II, Vol. 157, Extra, September 27, 2023
  11. ↑ "Justin Trudeau to Remain Prime Minister of Canada". The New York Times. September 21, 2021. Archived from the original on January 11, 2022. Retrieved September 21, 2021. Updated September 24, 2021.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: postscript (link)
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  17. ↑ "Expelled by Liberals, Kevin Vuong wins Toronto riding and says he will keep the seat". National Post. September 23, 2021. Retrieved September 24, 2021.
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  38. ↑ Dr. Helena Jaczek [@HelenaJaczek] (July 25, 2023). "After 50 years of public service [...] I have decided that I will not seek re-election after my current term" (Tweet). Retrieved July 25, 2023– via Twitter.
  39. ↑ Joyce Murray [@JoyceMurray] (July 25, 2023). "After much thought and reflection, I have decided not to run again in the next election after my current term" (Tweet). Retrieved July 25, 2023– via Twitter.
  40. ↑ Omar Alghabra [@OmarAlghabra] (July 25, 2023). "I have news to share: after a lot of reflection, I decided to not run in the next election" (Tweet). Retrieved July 25, 2023– via Twitter.
  41. ↑ Robertson, Dylan (September 13, 2022). "Ex-Conservative Quebec MP, 'political orphan' Alain Rayes won't seek re-election". CBC News . Retrieved February 11, 2024.
  42. ↑ FRIES, JOE (September 12, 2023). "MP Cannings won't run again". Penticton Herald.
  43. ↑ "Rota not running for re-election". BayToday.ca. October 23, 2023.
  44. ↑ "Liberal MP Emmanuel Dubourg won't run for re-election | Montreal Gazette" . Retrieved February 11, 2024.
  45. ↑ Shackleton, Al (December 7, 2023). "MP Erskine-Smith, runner-up in Ontario Liberal leadership race, won't seek federal re-election in Beaches-East York".
  46. ↑ Quigley, Joseph (March 11, 2024). "'Person of great integrity:' Newmarket-Aurora MP won't run for re-election". NewmarketToday.ca. Retrieved March 11, 2024.
  47. ↑ https://globalnews.ca/news/10358752/ed-fast-harper-conservative-not-seek-re-election/
  48. ↑ "Veteran NDP MP Charlie Angus leaving politics". The Globe and Mail. April 4, 2024.
  49. ↑ "NDP MPs Carol Hughes, Rachel Blaney, Charlie Angus not running again". National Newswatch. April 4, 2024.
  50. ↑ "NDP MPs Carol Hughes, Rachel Blaney, Charlie Angus not running again". National Newswatch. April 4, 2024.
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  53. 1 2 "NDP MP Daniel Blaikie resigning House seat to work with Manitoba premier". CTV News. Retrieved February 28, 2024.
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