45th Canadian federal election

Last updated

45th Canadian federal election
Flag of Canada (Pantone).svg
  2021 On or before October 20, 2025 (2025-10-20)

338 seats in the House of Commons [lower-alpha 1]
170 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Trudeau G7 Cropped.jpeg
Pierre Poilievre with Wife (cropped).jpg
Yves-Francois Blanchet in October 2009.jpg
Leader Justin Trudeau Pierre Poilievre Yves-François Blanchet
Party Liberal Conservative Bloc Québécois
Last election160 [lower-alpha 2] seats, 32.62%119 seats, 33.74%32 seats, 7.64%
Current seats15811532
Seats neededIncrease2.svg 12Increase2.svg 55N/A [lower-alpha 3]

 
Jagmeet Singh in Brantford 2022 (cropped).jpg
Elizabeth May 2017 (cropped).jpg
Maxime Bernier in 2017 - cropped.jpg
Leader Jagmeet Singh Elizabeth May Maxime Bernier
Party New Democratic Green People's
Last election25 seats, 17.82%2 seats, 2.33%0 seats, 4.94%
Current seats2520
Seats neededIncrease2.svg 145Increase2.svg 168Increase2.svg 170

Incumbent Prime Minister

Justin Trudeau
Liberal



The 45th Canadian federal election will take place on or before October 20, 2025, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament.

Contents

The date of the vote is determined by the fixed-date provisions of the Canada Elections Act , which requires federal elections to be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the polling day of the previous election. [1] In addition to the statutory fixed election date provisions, Canada has a constitutional requirement specified in both section 50 of the Constitution Act, 1867 and section 4 of the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms that elections for the House of Commons must be held no more than five years after the preceding election.

Since the incumbent government is a minority government, the election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister for a snap election, for example after the House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government. [2] [3] [4]

Background

The 2021 Canadian federal election, held on September 20 that year, resulted in the incumbent Liberal Party, led by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, retaining government and their minority status parliament, whilst also picking up five more seats than they had at dissolution. [5] [lower-alpha 4] On September 27, 2021, Annamie Paul announced that she was resigning as the Green Party leader; [6] on November 10, 2021, she stated she had formally resigned and left the Green Party. [7]

The Constitution Act, 1867, requires that federal electoral districts undergo a redistribution of seats following each decennial Canadian census. [8] The 2022 redistribution began in October 2021, and is expected to be completed in September 2023. [9] On October 15, 2021, the chief electoral officer announced that allocation would result in an increase to 342 seats. [10] The government tabled legislation on March 24, 2022, to prevent Quebec (or any other province) from losing any seats relative to the number of seats it was apportioned in 2012 Canadian federal electoral redistribution. [11] [12] Bill C-14 amended rule 2 of subsection 51(1) of the Constitution Act, 1867 , commonly known as the "Grandfather Clause". [13] [14] The bill passed the House of Commons on June 15, 2022, [15] the Senate on June 21, 2022, [16] and received royal assent on June 23, 2022. [17] The chief electoral officer announced the new allocation of seats on July 8, 2022, which would result in an increase to 343 seats. [18]

Parties and standings

The table below lists parties represented in the House of Commons after the 2021 federal election and their current standings. Kevin Vuong was elected as a Liberal on the ballot, despite being disavowed during the campaign, and sits as an independent. [19]

NameIdeologyPositionLeader2021 resultCurrent standing
Votes (%)Seats
Liberal Liberalism
Social liberalism
Centre to centre-left Justin Trudeau
32.62%
160 / 338
158 / 338
Conservative Conservatism
Economic liberalism
Fiscal conservatism
Centre-right to right-wing Pierre Poilievre
33.74%
119 / 338
115 / 338
Bloc Québécois Quebec nationalism
Quebec sovereigntist
Social democracy
Centre-left Yves-François Blanchet
7.64%
32 / 338
32 / 338
New Democratic Social democracy
Democratic socialism
Centre-left to left-wing Jagmeet Singh
17.82%
25 / 338
25 / 338
Green Green politics Elizabeth May
2.33%
2 / 338
2 / 338
Independents N/A
0.19%
0 / 338
2 / 338
VacantN/A
4 / 338

Timeline

Changes in seats held (2021–)
House of Commons – Changes in seats held
SeatBeforeChange
DateMemberPartyReasonDateMemberParty
Spadina—Fort York 22 November 2021 Kevin Vuong   Liberal Excluded from caucus  Independent
Mississauga—Lakeshore 27 May 2022 Sven Spengemann   Liberal Resigned [a 1] 12 December 2022 Charles Sousa   Liberal
Richmond—Arthabaska September 13, 2022 Alain Rayes   Conservative Left caucus  Independent
Winnipeg South Centre 12 December 2022 Jim Carr   Liberal Death Vacant
Calgary Heritage December 31, 2022 Bob Benzen   Conservative Resigned Vacant
Oxford January 27, 2023 Dave MacKenzie   Conservative Resigned Vacant
Portage—Lisgar TBA Candice Bergen   Conservative Resigned Vacant
  1. to accept a position with the United Nations

2021

2022

2023

Opinion polls

Evolution of voting intentions according to polls conducted during the pre-campaign period of the 45th Canadian federal election, graphed from the data in the table below. Trendlines are 30-poll local regressions, with polls weighted by proximity in time and a logarithmic function of sample size. 95% confidence ribbons represent uncertainty about the trendlines, not the likelihood that actual election results would fall within the intervals. Opinion polling during the pre-campaign period of the 45th Canadian federal election.svg
Evolution of voting intentions according to polls conducted during the pre-campaign period of the 45th Canadian federal election, graphed from the data in the table below. Trendlines are 30-poll local regressions, with polls weighted by proximity in time and a logarithmic function of sample size. 95% confidence ribbons represent uncertainty about the trendlines, not the likelihood that actual election results would fall within the intervals.

Notes

  1. A redistribution is required to take effect by 2024, which will increase the total number of seats to 343.
  2. Includes Kevin Vuong, who appeared on the ballot as a Liberal but was disavowed by the party during the campaign. He has not been seated as a member of the Liberal caucus.
  3. Though parties registered with Elections Canada can field candidates in any riding they wish, the Bloc Québécois has never fielded candidates outside of Quebec (78 seats). Thus it is impossible for the Bloc to gain a majority in parliament.
  4. While formal results show the Liberals winning or leading in 160 seats, those totals include Kevin Vuong, who was disavowed during the campaign by his party, and has since sat as an Independent in the House of Commons.

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