2025 Canadian federal election

Last updated

2025 Canadian federal election
Flag of Canada (Pantone).svg
←  2021 On or before October 20, 2025 (2025-10-20)
343 seats in the House of Commons
172 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Justin Trudeau in May 2023.jpg
Pierre Poilievre in 2023 (edited).jpg
Yves-Francois Blanchet Entrevue no smile 2023 (cropped-2).png
Leader Justin Trudeau (outgoing) Pierre Poilievre Yves-François Blanchet
Party Liberal Conservative Bloc Québécois
Leader since April 14, 2013 September 10, 2022 January 17, 2019
Leader's seatWill not stand Carleton Beloeil—Chambly
Last election160 [a] seats, 32.62%119 seats, 33.74%32 seats, 7.64%
Current seats15312033
Seats neededIncrease2.svg 19Increase2.svg 52N/A [b]
 
Jagmeet Singh in Brantford 2022 2 (cropped3).jpg
Elizabeth May 4431 (37439753570) (cropped).jpg
Maxime Bernier portrait 2023.png
Leader Jagmeet Singh Elizabeth May Maxime Bernier
Party New Democratic Green People's
Leader since October 1, 2017 November 19, 2022 September 14, 2018
Leader's seat Burnaby South Saanich—Gulf Islands N/A [c]
Last election25 seats, 17.82%2 seats, 2.33%0 seats, 4.94%
Current seats2520
Seats neededIncrease2.svg 147Increase2.svg 170Increase2.svg 172
Canada Election 2025 Results Map.svg
New electoral districts to be used for this election
Incumbent Prime Minister

Justin Trudeau
Liberal



The 2025 Canadian federal election will take place on or before October 20, 2025, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 45th Canadian Parliament. The date of the vote is determined by the fixed-date provisions of the Canada Elections Act , which requires federal elections to be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the polling day of the previous election.

Contents

This will be the first election to use a new 343-seat electoral map based on the 2021 Canadian census.

Background

The 2021 Canadian federal election, held on September 20, 2021, saw only minor changes from the preceding 2019 election. [1] The incumbent Liberal Party, led by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, did not win the popular vote and failed to win enough seats to gain a parliamentary majority, winning only a plurality of seats and retaining its status as a minority government. The Conservatives won the popular vote and continued as the Official Opposition. [2] [d] That September 27, Annamie Paul resigned as the Green Party leader, citing lack of party support. [3] Her resignation came into effect that November 10. [4]

Date of the election

The election is scheduled to take place on October 20, 2025, under the fixed-date provisions of the Canada Elections Act , which requires federal elections to be held on the third Monday in October in the fourth calendar year after the polling day of the previous election. [5] In addition to the statutory fixed election date provisions, Canada has a constitutional requirement specified in both section 50 of the Constitution Act, 1867 and section 4 of the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms that elections for the House of Commons must be called no more than five years after the writs for the preceding election are returned.

The election may occur before the scheduled date if the governor general dissolves Parliament on the recommendation of the prime minister, either for a snap election or after the government loses a vote on a supply bill or a specific motion of no confidence. Early elections are more likely to occur during minority governments because the prime minister does not control a majority in the House of Commons and thus is more likely to lose votes in the House. [6] [7] [8]

Proposed change of fixed election date

On March 20, 2024, the government introduced the Electoral Participation Act , which included an amendment to the Canada Elections Act that would have changed the fixed election date to October 27, 2025, to avoid conflicting with the Hindu festival of Diwali, as well as municipal elections in Alberta. [9] [10] Moving the election date would also have resulted in 80 members of Parliament first elected on October 21, 2019, meeting the requirement of 6 years of service to receive a parliamentary retirement pension. [11] The Official Opposition Conservative Party argued that the pension eligibility was the real motivation for the change, an accusation which the government denied. [12] Of the 80 MPs who would have become eligible for a pension if the election date was moved later, 32 were Conservatives, 22 were Liberals, 19 were Bloc Québécois, 6 were New Democrats, and 1 was an independent. [13] The date change was unlikely to proceed with all opposition parties against the change; NDP MP Lisa Barron confirmed she would propose a committee amendment to leave the fixed election date as October 20, 2025, and minister of democratic institutions Dominic LeBlanc stated he would "happily respect the will of this committee" if it had amended the bill. [12]

On January 6, 2025, the Parliament of Canada was prorogued by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, [14] which resulted in the bill dying on the order paper. [15]

Political parties and standings

The table below lists parties represented in the House of Commons after the 2021 federal election and their current standings. Kevin Vuong, despite being elected as a Liberal, was disavowed by the party too late to alter his affiliation on the ballot and has since sat as an independent. [16]

NameIdeologyPositionLeader2021 resultCurrent standing
Votes (%)Seats
Liberal Liberalism
Social liberalism 		Centre to centre-left Justin Trudeau
(outgoing)
32.62%
160 / 338
153 / 338
Conservative Conservatism
Social conservatism
Economic liberalism 		Centre-right to right-wing Pierre Poilievre
33.74%
119 / 338
120 / 338
Bloc Québécois Quebec nationalism
Quebec sovereigntism
Social democracy 		Centre-left Yves-François Blanchet
7.64%
32 / 338
33 / 338
New Democratic Social democracy
Democratic socialism 		Centre-left to left-wing Jagmeet Singh
17.82%
25 / 338
25 / 338
Green Green politics Elizabeth May
2.33%
2 / 338
2 / 338
Independents N/A
0.19%
0 / 338
3 / 338
VacantN/A
2 / 338

Electoral system

Canada's electoral system, a "first-past-the-post" system, is formally referred to as a single-member plurality system. The candidate with more votes than any other candidate in an electoral district (referred to in Canada as a riding) wins a seat in the House of Commons and represents that riding as its member of Parliament (MP). The party that wins the most seats in the House of Commons usually forms government, with that party's leader becoming prime minister. The largest party by seat count that is not the government or part of a governing coalition becomes the Official Opposition. That party receives more finances and prestige than the other opposition parties.[ citation needed ]

An absolute majority of the votes cast in the last election is not needed to have power and is rarely achieved. As well, the party in power does not need to obtain a majority of the seats in the House of Commons – and under the current multi-party system, quite often does not achieve that. However, to pass bills, the governing party must have support of a majority of MPs. Without majority support, the government falls and a new party is named government or an election has to be held. Three parties have achieved power at the federal level in Canada's history: the Liberals (active since 1867); the original Conservatives / Progressive Conservatives (1867–2003); and the modern Conservatives (since 2003).[ citation needed ]

Redistribution

The Constitution Act of 1867 requires that federal electoral districts undergo a redistribution following each decennial Canadian census. [17] Using the 2021 Canadian census population results, the 2022 redistribution process began in October 2021 and was completed in September 2023. [18]

On October 15, 2021, the chief electoral officer announced that, based on the formula in the Constitution Act, 1867, then in force, the allocation would result in an increase to 342 seats. [19] This included a reduction of Quebec's allocation from 78 to 77 seats. The government tabled legislation on March 24, 2022, to prevent Quebec (or any other province) from losing any seats relative to the number of seats it was apportioned in 2012 redistribution. [20] [21] The Preserving Provincial Representation in the House of Commons Act amended rule 2 of subsection 51(1) of the Constitution Act, 1867, commonly known as the "Grandfather Clause". [22] [23] The bill passed the House of Commons on June 15, 2022, [24] the Senate on June 21, [25] and received royal assent on June 23, 2022. [26] The chief electoral officer announced the new allocation of seats on July 8, 2022, which would result in an increase to 343 seats. [27]

Pursuant to the Electoral Boundaries Readjustment Act as amended, ten federal electoral boundary commissions were established, one for each province, on November 1, 2021. [28] The boundary-drawing process commenced upon the release of census data in February 2022. Quebec's commission adjusted its work to be based on a 78-seat allocation in July 2022. The respective commissions completed their work and finalized new electoral boundary sets on a rolling basis, beginning with the Newfoundland and Labrador and Prince Edward Island commissions on February 14, 2023, [29] [30] and finishing with the Ontario commission on July 8, 2023. [31] The chief electoral officer then used the final reports of the electoral boundary commissions to formalize a representation order, which was proclaimed on September 22, 2023. [32]

The changes to federal electoral district boundaries took effect on April 23, 2024. [33] [19] [32] If the election had been called before then, it would have occurred under the previous electoral district boundaries, which had been in effect since the 2015 federal election. [34] [35]

Allocation of seats in the House of Commons under the Preserving Provincial Representation in the House of Commons Act
Province or territoryRepresentation ordersAverage population
per electoral district		Change
2013 2023
Ontario 121122116,5901 Increase2.svg
Quebec 7878108,998Steady2.svg
British Columbia 4243116,3001 Increase2.svg
Alberta 3437115,2063 Increase2.svg
Manitoba 141495,868Steady2.svg
Saskatchewan 141480,893Steady2.svg
Nova Scotia 111188,126Steady2.svg
New Brunswick 101077,561Steady2.svg
Newfoundland and Labrador 7772,935Steady2.svg
Prince Edward Island 4438,583Steady2.svg
Northwest Territories 1141,070Steady2.svg
Nunavut 1136,858Steady2.svg
Yukon 1140,232Steady2.svg
Canada338343107,8485Increase2.svg

Transposed 2021 results

The transposed results of the 2021 election, if they had taken place under the 2023 Representation Order 45th Canadian Parliament Map.svg
The transposed results of the 2021 election, if they had taken place under the 2023 Representation Order

This will be the first election contested under the new electoral districts established in the 2022 redistribution. Consequently, media outlets tend to report seat gains and losses as compared to notional results. These are the results if all votes cast in 2021 were unchanged but regrouped by new electoral district boundaries, as published by Elections Canada. [36]

2021 results transposed onto 2023 boundaries
PartyMPs
2021 actual result2021 notional resultChange
Liberal 160157Decrease2.svg 3
Conservative 119126Increase2.svg 7
Bloc Québécois 3234Increase2.svg 2
New Democratic 2524Decrease2.svg 1
Green 22Steady2.svg
Total seats3383435Increase2.svg

Incumbents not running for re-election

As of January 2025, 46 MPs have announced they will not run in the 2025 federal election.

Number of MPs standing down by party affiliation
PartyMPs standing down
2021 election [e] Current
Liberal 3030
Conservative 87
New Democratic 55
Bloc Québécois 33
Independent 01
Total4646
Member of ParliamentElectoral districtProvince or territoryDate announced
  Ron Liepert [37] Calgary Signal Hill Alberta February 17, 2023
  Wayne Long [38] Saint John—Rothesay New Brunswick March 14, 2023
  Randall Garrison [39] Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke British Columbia April 27, 2023
  Ken Hardie [40] Fleetwood—Port Kells British Columbia May 26, 2023
  Lloyd Longfield [41] Guelph Ontario June 28, 2023
  Joyce Murray [42] Vancouver Quadra British Columbia July 25, 2023
  Omar Alghabra [43] Mississauga Centre Ontario July 25, 2023
  Alain Rayes [44] Richmond—Arthabaska Quebec September 11, 2023
  Richard Cannings [45] South Okanagan—West Kootenay British Columbia September 12, 2023
  Anthony Rota [46] Nipissing—Timiskaming Ontario September 18, 2023
  Emmanuel Dubourg [47] Bourassa Quebec November 1, 2023
  Tony Van Bynen [48] Newmarket—Aurora Ontario March 11, 2024
  Ed Fast [49] Abbotsford British Columbia March 14, 2024
  Charlie Angus [50] Timmins—James Bay Ontario April 4, 2024
  Carol Hughes [51] Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing Ontario April 4, 2024
  Rachel Blaney [51] North Island—Powell River British Columbia April 4, 2024
  Gary Vidal [52] Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River Saskatchewan April 23, 2024
  Colin Carrie [53] [54] Oshawa Ontario April 24, 2024
  Pam Damoff [55] Oakville North—Burlington Ontario May 1, 2024
  John McKay [56] Scarborough—Guildwood Ontario June 20, 2024
  Ken McDonald [57] Avalon Newfoundland and Labrador July 2, 2024
  Robert Kitchen [58] Souris—Moose Mountain Saskatchewan July 8, 2024
  Michael McLeod [59] Northwest Territories Northwest Territories July 10, 2024
  Seamus O'Regan [60] St. John's South—Mount Pearl Newfoundland and Labrador July 18, 2024
  Francis Drouin [61] Glengarry—Prescott—Russell Ontario July 25, 2024
  Karen Vecchio [62] Elgin—Middlesex—London Ontario July 30, 2024
  René Arseneault [63] Madawaska—Restigouche New Brunswick August 17, 2024
  Yves Robillard [64] Marc-Aurèle-Fortin Quebec September 16, 2024
  Monique Pauzé [65] Repentigny Quebec October 8, 2024
  Dan Vandal [66] Saint Boniface—Saint Vital Manitoba October 17, 2024
  Carla Qualtrough [67] Delta British Columbia October 17, 2024
  Filomena Tassi [68] Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas Ontario October 18, 2024
  Marie-Claude Bibeau [69] Compton—Stanstead Quebec October 21, 2024
  Louise Chabot [70] Thérèse-De Blainville Quebec October 21, 2024
  Stéphane Bergeron [71] Montarville Quebec October 24, 2024
  Brenda Shanahan [72] Châteauguay—Lacolle Quebec November 22, 2024
  Sean Fraser [73] Central Nova Nova Scotia December 16, 2024
  Churence Rogers [74] Bonavista-Burin-Trinity Newfoundland and Labrador December 20, 2024
  Marco Mendicino [75] Eglinton—Lawrence Ontario January 2, 2025
  Gudie Hutchings [76] Long Range Mountains Newfoundland and Labrador January 9, 2025
  Yvonne Jones [77] Labrador Newfoundland and Labrador January 9, 2025
  Anita Anand [78] Oakville Ontario January 11, 2025
  Justin Trudeau [79] Papineau Quebec January 15, 2025
  Earl Dreeshen [80] Red Deer—Mountain View Alberta January 21, 2025
  Harjit Sajjan [81] Vancouver South British Columbia January 22, 2025
  Jenica Atwin [82] Fredericton New Brunswick January 22, 2025

Incumbents who lost nomination races

Member of ParliamentElectoral districtProvince or territoryDate announced
  Gerald Soroka [83] Yellowhead Alberta June 22, 2024

Timeline

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Candidates

Opinion polls

Evolution of voting intentions according to polls conducted during the pre-campaign period of the 45th Canadian federal election, graphed from the data in the table below. Trendlines are 30-poll local regressions, with polls weighted by proximity in time and a logarithmic function of sample size. 95% confidence ribbons represent uncertainty about the trendlines, not the likelihood that actual election results would fall within the intervals. Opinion polling during the pre-campaign period of the 45th Canadian federal election.svg
Evolution of voting intentions according to polls conducted during the pre-campaign period of the 45th Canadian federal election, graphed from the data in the table below. Trendlines are 30-poll local regressions, with polls weighted by proximity in time and a logarithmic function of sample size. 95% confidence ribbons represent uncertainty about the trendlines, not the likelihood that actual election results would fall within the intervals.

See also

Notes

  1. ↑ Includes Kevin Vuong, who appeared on the ballot as a Liberal but was disavowed by the party during the campaign. He has not been seated as a member of the Liberal caucus.
  2. ↑ Though parties registered with Elections Canada can field candidates in any riding they wish, the Bloc Québécois has never fielded candidates outside of Quebec (78 seats). Thus it is impossible for the party to gain a majority in Parliament.
  3. ↑ MP for Beauce until being defeated in the 2019 election. Contested the by-election in Portage–Lisgar, lost.
  4. ↑ While formal results show the Liberals winning or leading in 160 seats, those totals include Kevin Vuong, who was disavowed during the campaign by his party, and has since sat as an Independent in the House of Commons.
  5. ↑ Party affiliation of retiring MPs at the time of the 2021 federal election

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References

  1. ↑ "Justin Trudeau to Remain Prime Minister of Canada". The New York Times. September 21, 2021. Archived from the original on January 11, 2022. Retrieved September 21, 2021. Updated September 24, 2021.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: postscript (link)
  2. ↑ "Canada: Trudeau's Liberals win minority government, CBC projects". Al Jazeera . September 21, 2021. Archived from the original on September 21, 2021. Retrieved September 21, 2021.
  3. ↑ Tasker, John Paul (September 27, 2021). "Annamie Paul is stepping down as Green Party leader". CBC News . Retrieved September 27, 2021.
  4. 1 2 "Annamie Paul officially quits as Green leader, will end membership in party". CBC News . November 10, 2021.
  5. ↑ "An Act to amend the Canada Elections Act". LegisINFO. May 3, 2007. Archived (PDF) from the original on June 25, 2024. Retrieved June 25, 2024.
  6. ↑ Aiello, Rachel (October 24, 2019). "Split opposition means stronger minority for Liberals, experts say". CTV News. Retrieved October 25, 2019.
  7. ↑ Harris, Kathleen (October 21, 2020). "Snap election averted as Liberal government survives confidence vote in Commons". CBC News . Retrieved November 26, 2020.
  8. ↑ Coyne, Andrew (October 28, 2020). "What, exactly, is a non-confidence vote? Parliament should get to decide". The Globe and Mail . Retrieved November 26, 2020.
  9. ↑ "Canada Elections Act" (PDF). Parliamentary Debates (Hansard) . Canada: House of Commons of Canada. March 20, 2024. p. 21765.
  10. ↑ "Minister LeBlanc introduces legislation to further strengthen Canada's electoral process". CNW. March 20, 2024. Retrieved March 22, 2024.
  11. ↑ Tumilty, Ryan (March 21, 2024). "New Liberal legislation would ensure dozens of MPs secure pensions before next election". National Post.
  12. 1 2 Aiello, Rachel (November 7, 2024). "Sparks fly as MPs question minister on pension implications of proposed election date change". CTV News. Retrieved December 8, 2024.
  13. ↑ Aiello, Rachel (May 30, 2024). "NDP wants Liberals to scrap proposed election date change that could secure pensions for many MPs". CTV News. Retrieved December 8, 2024.
  14. 1 2 Aziz, Saba; Boynton, Sean; Rana, Uday (January 6, 2025). "Trudeau says he will resign after Liberals choose successor, prorogues Parliament". globalnews.ca. Global News . Retrieved January 6, 2025.
  15. ↑ Bosc, Marc; Gagnon, André (June 2017). "The Parliamentary Cycle". ourcommons.ca. House of Commons of Canada . Retrieved January 6, 2025. Bills which have not received Royal Assent before prorogation are "entirely terminated" and, in order to be proceeded with in the new session, must be reintroduced as if they had never existed.
  16. ↑ "Expelled by Liberals, Kevin Vuong wins Toronto riding and says he will keep the seat". National Post. September 23, 2021. Retrieved September 24, 2021.
  17. 1 2 Canada, Elections (August 13, 2021). "Redistribution of Federal Electoral Districts 2022". www.elections.ca. Retrieved August 16, 2021.
  18. ↑ Canada, Elections (August 12, 2021). "Timeline for the Redistribution of Federal Electoral Districts". Elections.ca. Retrieved August 16, 2021.
  19. 1 2 "New House of Commons Seat Allocation" (Press release). Gatineau: Elections Canada. October 15, 2021. Retrieved October 15, 2021.
  20. ↑ Woolf, Marie (March 24, 2022). "Liberals table bill to protect number of Quebec seats in Parliament, a condition of deal with NDP". National Post . Archived from the original on June 11, 2022. Retrieved March 25, 2022.
  21. ↑ Levitz, Stephanie (March 24, 2022). "Liberal-NDP deal might change which riding you are in". Toronto Star . Archived from the original on March 24, 2022. Retrieved March 25, 2022.
  22. ↑ "The representation formula". Elections Canada . 2022. Archived from the original on February 10, 2022. Retrieved March 26, 2022.
  23. ↑ "C-14: An Act to amend the Constitution Act, 1867 (electoral representation)". Parliament of Canada . 2022. Archived from the original on March 24, 2022. Retrieved March 25, 2022.
  24. ↑ "Constitution Act" (PDF). Parliamentary Debates (Hansard) . Canada: House of Commons of Canada. June 15, 2022. p. 6768.
  25. ↑ "Constitution Act, 1867" (PDF). Parliamentary Debates (Hansard) . Canada: Senate of Canada. June 21, 2022. pp. 1773–1774.
  26. ↑ "JOURNALS Thursday, June 23, 2022". ourcommons.ca. House of Commons of Canada. June 23, 2022. Retrieved June 24, 2022. A message was received informing the Commons that on June 23, at 10:28 p.m., Her Excellency the Governor General signified royal assent by written declaration to the following bills: Bill C-14, An Act to amend the Constitution Act, 1867 (electoral representation) — Chapter No. 6;
  27. ↑ "New House of Commons Seat Allocation" (Press release). Gatineau: Elections Canada. July 8, 2022. Archived from the original on July 8, 2022. Retrieved July 8, 2022.
  28. ↑ Federal Electoral Boundaries Commission (January 20, 2022). "Federal Electoral Boundaries Commissions Launch Redistribution Website and Social Media Accounts".
  29. ↑ Federal Electoral Boundaries Commission for Newfoundland and Labrador. "Redistribution process timeline in Newfoundland and Labrador".
  30. ↑ Federal Electoral Boundaries Commission for Prince Edward Island. "Redistribution process timeline in PEI".
  31. ↑ Federal Electoral Boundaries Commission for Ontario. "Redistribution process timeline in Ontario".
  32. 1 2 Elections Canada. "Implementation of New Federal Electoral Boundaries".
  33. ↑ Federal Electoral Boundaries Commission. "Timeline for the Redistribution of Federal Electoral Districts".
  34. ↑ Proclamation declaring the Representation Order to be in Force effective on the First dissolution of Parliament that Occurs after May 1, 2014 , SI/2013-102 , reported in the Canada Gazette , Part II, Vol. 147, Extra, October 5, 2013
  35. ↑ "Proclamation Issuing Election Writs" (PDF). Canada Gazette Part II. 149. August 4, 2015. Archived (PDF) from the original on September 6, 2015. Retrieved October 22, 2015.
  36. ↑ "Transposition of Votes from the 44th General Election to the 2023 Representation Orders" (PDF). elections.ca. Elections Canada. April 2024. Retrieved April 10, 2024.
  37. ↑ CBC News (February 17, 2023). "Calgary MP Ron Liepert says he won't seek re-election". cbc.ca. Archived from the original on April 2, 2023. Retrieved April 2, 2023.
  38. ↑ "EXCLUSIVE: Wayne Long won't reoffer in next federal election". TJ.news.[ failed verification ]
  39. ↑ "B.C. New Democrat MP Randall Garrison says he will not be seeking re-election". battlefordsNOW. The Canadian Press. Retrieved May 8, 2023.
  40. ↑ Zytaruk, Tom (May 26, 2023). "Fleetwood-Port Kells Liberal MP Ken Hardie says this term will be his last". Surrey Now-Leader. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  41. ↑ Cassidy, Lianne (June 28, 2023). "News release". mplongfield.ca. Archived from the original on June 28, 2023. Retrieved June 28, 2023.
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  43. ↑ Omar Alghabra [@OmarAlghabra] (July 25, 2023). "I have news to share: after a lot of reflection, I decided to not run in the next election" (Tweet). Retrieved July 25, 2023– via Twitter.
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