2025 Canadian federal election in Ontario

Not to be confused with 2025 Ontario general election.

2025 Canadian federal election in Ontario

←  2021 April 28, 2025 (2025-04-28) 46th →
←  outgoing members elected members  →
All 122 of Ontario's seats in the House of Commons
Registered	10,965,118
Turnout	7,576,590 (69.1%) [1]
First party Second party   Leader Mark Carney Pierre Poilievre Party Liberal Conservative Leader since March 9, 2025 September 10, 2022 Last election 78 seats [a] , 39.3% 37 seats, 34.9% Seats before 74 38 Seats won 70 52 Seat change 4 14 Popular vote 3,716,166 3,315,575 Percentage 49.0% 43.8% Swing 9.7pp 8.9pp   Third party Fourth party   Leader Jagmeet Singh Elizabeth May & Jonathan Pedneault Party New Democratic Green Leader since October 1, 2017 November 19, 2022 / February 4, 2025 Last election 5 seats, 17.8% 1 seats, 2.2% Seats before 5 1 Seats won 0 0 Seat change 5 1 Popular vote 368,965 89,907 Percentage 4.9 1.2 Swing 12.9pp 1.0pp
Prime Minister before election Mark Carney Liberal Elected Prime Minister Mark Carney Liberal

In the 2025 Canadian federal election, 122 members of Parliament were elected to the House of Commons from the province of Ontario (35.6% of all members).

Background

2022 electoral redistribution

The 2025 Canadian federal election will be the first election to utilize the electoral districts established following the 2022 Canadian federal electoral redistribution. The House of Commons will increase from 338 seats to 343 seats, with Ontario gaining one seat in an increase from 121 to 122. This ensures that the average population per constituency in Ontario is 116,590 (according to the 2021 Canadian census), which is 8,742 more people per electoral district than the national average. ^[2] Due to the redistribution, this will be the first Canadian federal election where the city of Toronto will have less seats than its surrounding suburban municipalities within the Greater Toronto Area. ^[3]

2021 results transposed onto 2023 boundaries

Party		MPs
		2021 actual result	2021 notional result	Change
	Liberal	78	77	1
	Conservative	37	40	3
	New Democratic	5	4	1
	Green	1	1
Total seats		121	122	1

Timeline

Changes in Ontario seats held (2021–2025)

Seat	Before				Change
	Date	Member	Party	Reason	Date	Member	Party
Spadina—Fort York	November 22, 2021	Kevin Vuong	█  Liberal	Excluded from caucus			█  Independent
Mississauga—Lakeshore	May 27, 2022	Sven Spengemann	█  Liberal	Resigned seat	December 22, 2022	Charles Sousa	█  Liberal
Oxford	January 28, 2023	Dave MacKenzie	█  Conservative	Resigned seat	June 19, 2023	Arpan Khanna	█  Conservative
Don Valley North	March 22, 2023	Han Dong	█  Liberal	Resigned from caucus			█  Independent
Durham	August 1, 2023	Erin O'Toole	█  Conservative	Resigned seat	March 4, 2024	Jamil Jivani	█  Conservative
Toronto—St. Paul's	January 16, 2024	Carolyn Bennett	█  Liberal	Resigned seat	June 24, 2024	Don Stewart	█  Conservative
Eglinton—Lawrence	March 13, 2025	Marco Mendicino	█  Liberal	Resigned seat	n/a [b]	–	█ Vacant

Opinion polling

This section is transcluded from Opinion polling for the 2025 Canadian federal election. (edit | history)

Polling firm	Last date of polling	Link	LPC	CPC	NDP	GPC	PPC	Others	Margin of error [c]	Sample size [d]	Polling method [e]	Lead
Campaign Research (Ontario PC internal)	March 26, 2025	[4]	48	33	11	4	-	4		1902	online	15
Mainstreet Research	February 17, 2025	[5]	41	39	13	2	2	2	± 2.7 pp	1,278 (1/3)	online (rolling)	2
	February 16, 2025	[6]	42	38	14	2	2	1	± 2.8 pp	1,229 (1/3)		4
	February 15, 2025	[7]	41	39	13	2	2	2	± 2.8 pp	1,228 (1/3)		2
	February 14, 2025	[8]	43	39	10	2	3	1	± 2.7 pp	1,272 (1/3)		4
	February 13, 2025	[9]	43	41	8	3	2	2	± 2.7 pp	1,294 (1/3)		2
	February 12, 2025	[10]	43	40	10	2	2	2	± 2.7 pp	1,314 (1/3)		3
	February 11, 2025	[11]	43	39	10	2	2	2	± 2.7 pp	1,303 (1/3)		4
	February 10, 2025	[12]	45	37	12	2	1	2	± 2.7 pp	1,301 (1/3)		8
	February 9, 2025	[13]	43	39	9	5	2	2	± 2.7 pp	1,347 (1/3)		4
	February 8, 2025	[14]	42	36	13	4	2	2	± 2.8 pp	1,187 (1/3)		6
	February 7, 2025	[15]	44	36	12	4	2	2	± 2.8 pp	1,262 (1/3)		8
	February 6, 2025	[16]	42	36	14	3	2	2	± 2.5 pp	1,515 (1/4)		6
	February 5, 2025	[17]	42	37	12	4	2	2	± 2.8 pp	1,236 (1/3)		5
	February 4, 2025	[18]	42	37	11	4	2	2	± 2.9 pp	1,162 (1/3)		5
	February 3, 2025	[19]	43	39	9	4	2	2	± 3.0 pp	1,080 (1/3)		4
	February 2, 2025	[20]	42	39	11	3	2	2	± 2.6 pp	1,374 (1/3)		3
	February 1, 2025	[21]	41	40	13	3	2	2	± 2.9 pp	1,124 (1/3)		1
	January 31, 2025	[22]	39	39	14	3	1	2	± 2.8 pp	1,247 (1/3)		0
	January 30, 2025	[23]	40	39	13	5	2	2	± 2.4 pp	1,644 (1/3)		1
	January 26, 2025	[24]	40	38	12	4	2	2	± 3.2 pp	936	online	2
Abacus Data	June 25, 2024	[25]	27	44	19	5	—	5	± 3.1 pp	1,000		17
	May 15, 2024	[26]	29	45	17	4	—	5	± 3.1 pp	1,000		16

Predictions

Summary

Source	Ranking
	Lib	Con	NDP	Green	As of
338Canada [27]	82	37	2	1	28 April 2025

Summary of results

Party		Votes	Vote %	Vote +/-	Seats	Seat +/-
	Liberal	3,716,166	49.0%	9.7pp	70 / 122 (57%)	5
	Conservative	3,315,575	43.8%	8.9pp	52 / 122 (43%)	15
	New Democratic	368,965	4.9%	12.9pp	0 / 122 (0%)	5
	Green	89,907	1.2%	1.0pp	0 / 122 (0%)	1
	People's	54,376	0.7%	4.8pp	0 / 122 (0%)
	Independent	10,321	0.1%	0pp	0 / 122 (0%)	2
	Other	21,896	0.3%	0.1pp	0 / 122 (0%)
Total		7,576,590	100%	–	122 / 122 (100%)	2 [f]

Comparison with national results

Results by party

Party		Popular vote %			Seats in caucus
		ON	Natl.	diff.
	Liberal	49.0	43.7	+5.3	70 / 169 (41%)
	Conservative	43.8	41.3	+2.5	52 / 144 (36%)
	New Democratic	4.9	6.3	-1.4	0 / 7 (0%)
	Green	1.2	1.2	=	0 / 1 (0%)
	People's	0.7	0.7	=	no caucus
	Total	–	–	–	122 / 343 (36%)

Student vote results

Student votes are mock elections that run parallel to actual elections, in which students not of voting age participate. They are administered by Student Vote Canada. These are for educational purposes and do not count towards the results. ^[28]

Summary of the 2025 Canadian Student Vote in Ontario

Party		Leader	Seats			Popular vote
			Elected	%	Δ	Votes	%	Δ (pp)
	Liberal	Mark Carney	60	49.18	7	107,487	35.90	6.67
	Conservative	Pierre Poilievre	58	47.54	27	101,415	33.87	11.10
	New Democratic	Jagmeet Singh	3	2.46	33	39,519	13.20	14.67
	Green	Elizabeth May & Jonathan Pedneault	1	0.82	0	24,684	8.24	1.86
	Other		0	0	0	15,150	5.06	2.27
	People's	Maxime Bernier	0	0	0	11,193	3.74	3.27
Total			122	100.00	1	299,448	100.00	–
Source: Student Vote Canada [29]

See also

• Carleton in the 2025 Canadian federal election

Notes

1. While formal results show the Liberals winning 78 seats in Ontario, those totals include Kevin Vuong, who was disavowed during the campaign by his party, and sat as an Independent in the House of Commons.
2. By-elections are not scheduled to fill vancancies within 9 months of a fixed general election date.
3. In cases when linked poll details distinguish between the margin of error associated with the total sample of respondents (including undecided and non-voters) and that of the subsample of decided/leaning voters, the former is included in the table. Also not included is the margin of error created by rounding to the nearest whole number or any margin of error from methodological sources. Most online polls (because of their opt-in method of recruiting panelists which results in a non-random sample) cannot have a margin of error. In such cases, shown is what the margin of error would be for a survey using a random probability-based sample of equivalent size.
4. Refers to the total, "raw" sample size, including undecided and non-voters, and before demographic weighting is applied. Fractions in parentheses apply to rolling polls (see below) and indicate the proportion of the sample that is independent from the previous poll in the series.
5. "Telephone" refers to traditional telephone polls conducted by live interviewers; "IVR" refers to automated Interactive Voice Response polls conducted by telephone; "online" refers to polls conducted exclusively over the internet; "telephone/online" refers to polls which combine results from both telephone and online surveys, or for which respondents are initially recruited by telephone and then asked to complete an online survey. "Rolling" polls contain overlapping data from one poll to the next.
6. Ontario gained 1 seat in the electoral redistribution. 1 seat was vacant at the dissolution of Parliament.

References

1. https://enr.elections.ca/Provinces.aspx?lang=e
2. "New House of Commons Seat Allocation" (Press release). Gatineau: Elections Canada. July 8, 2022. Archived from the original on July 8, 2022. Retrieved July 8, 2022.
3. Ibbitson, John & Bricker, Darrell (November 23, 2024). "With the Laurentian elite's power fading, a new and less stable Canada is emerging: Canadian unity is under greater threat than at any time since the last referendum". Globe and Mail . p. O2. the GTA outside Toronto is growing faster than in the city itself, in the most recent redistricting of the House of Commons, the GTA outside Toronto gained ridings, while Toronto lost one
4. "Doug Ford's internal polling paints grim election prospects for Pierre Poilievre in Ontario". Toronto Star . March 27, 2025. Retrieved March 28, 2025.
5. "Mainstreet Research Survey - Ontario, Day 20" (PDF). February 18, 2025. Retrieved February 18, 2025.
6. "Mainstreet Research Survey - Ontario, Day 19" (PDF). February 17, 2025. Retrieved February 17, 2025.
7. "Mainstreet Research Survey - Ontario, Day 18" (PDF). February 16, 2025. Retrieved February 17, 2025.
8. "Mainstreet Research Survey - Ontario, Day 17" (PDF). February 15, 2025. Retrieved February 17, 2025.
9. "Mainstreet Research Survey - Ontario, Day 16" (PDF). February 14, 2025. Retrieved February 17, 2025.
10. "Mainstreet Research Survey - Ontario, Day 15" (PDF). February 13, 2025. Retrieved February 13, 2025.
11. "Mainstreet Research Survey - Ontario, Day 14" (PDF). February 12, 2025. Retrieved February 12, 2025.
12. "Mainstreet Research Survey - Ontario, Day 13" (PDF). February 11, 2025. Retrieved February 12, 2025.
13. "Mainstreet Research Survey - Ontario, Day 12" (PDF). February 10, 2025. Retrieved February 10, 2025.
14. "Mainstreet Research Survey - Ontario, Day 11" (PDF). February 9, 2025. Retrieved February 10, 2025.
15. "Mainstreet Research Survey - Ontario, Day 10" (PDF). February 8, 2025. Retrieved February 8, 2025.
16. "Mainstreet Research Survey - Ontario, Day 9" (PDF). February 7, 2025. Retrieved February 7, 2025.
17. "Mainstreet Research Survey - Ontario, Day 8" (PDF). February 6, 2025. Retrieved February 6, 2025.
18. "Mainstreet Research Survey - Ontario, Day 7" (PDF). February 5, 2025. Retrieved February 5, 2025.
19. "Mainstreet Research Survey - Ontario, Day 6" (PDF). February 4, 2025. Retrieved February 4, 2025.
20. "Mainstreet Research Survey - Ontario, Day 5" (PDF). February 3, 2025. Retrieved February 3, 2025.
21. "Mainstreet Research Survey - Ontario, Day 4" (PDF). February 2, 2025. Retrieved February 3, 2025.
22. "Mainstreet Research Survey - Ontario, Day 3" (PDF). February 1, 2025. Retrieved February 1, 2025.
23. "Mainstreet Research Survey - Ontario, Day 2" (PDF). January 31, 2025. Retrieved February 1, 2025.
24. "Mainstreet Research Survey - Ontario" (PDF). January 26, 2025. Retrieved January 26, 2025.
25. "Abacus Data Ontario Poll: Ford PCs lead by 16 despite increase in disapproval of the provincial government's performance". June 30, 2024. Retrieved June 30, 2024.
26. "Abacus Data Ontario Poll: Ford PCs lead by 13 over Crombie Liberals". May 22, 2024. Retrieved May 23, 2024.
27. "Ontario". 338Canada. Retrieved 23 April 2025.
28. https://studentvote.ca/canada/
29. "Student Vote Canada 2025 — Results" . Retrieved April 29, 2025.