2025 Canadian federal election in Ontario

Last updated

2025 Canadian federal election in Ontario
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←  2021 April 28, 2025 (2025-4-28) 46th →
All 122 of Ontario's seats in the House of Commons
 
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Pierre Poilievre in 2023 (edited).jpg
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Leader Mark Carney Pierre Poilievre Jagmeet Singh
Party Liberal Conservative New Democratic
Leader since March 9, 2025 September 10, 2022 October 1, 2017
Last election78 seats [a] , 39.3%37 seats, 34.9%5 seats, 17.8%
Current seats74385
 
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Leader Elizabeth May & Jonathan Pedneault Maxime Bernier
Party Green People's
Leader since November 19, 2022 / February 4, 2025 September 14, 2018
Last election1 seats, 2.2%0 seats, 5.5%
Current seats10
Incumbent Prime Minister

Mark Carney
Liberal



In the 2025 Canadian federal election, there will be 122 members of Parliament elected to the House of Commons from the province of Ontario (35.6% of all members).

Contents

Background

2022 electoral redistribution

The 2025 Canadian federal election will be the first election to utilize the electoral districts established following the 2022 Canadian federal electoral redistribution. The House of Commons will increase from 338 seats to 343 seats, with Ontario gaining one seat in an increase from 121 to 122. This ensures that the average population per constituency in Ontario is 116,590 (according to the 2021 Canadian census), which is 8,742 more people per electoral district than the national average. [1] Due to the redistribution, this will be the first Canadian federal election where the city of Toronto will have less seats than its surrounding municipalities within the Greater Toronto Area.

Timeline

Changes in Ontario seats held (2021–2025)
SeatBeforeChange
DateMemberPartyReasonDateMemberParty
Mississauga—Lakeshore May 27, 2022 Sven Spengemann █  Liberal Resigned seat December 22, 2022 Charles Sousa █  Liberal
Oxford January 28, 2023 Dave MacKenzie █  Conservative Resigned seat June 19, 2023 Arpan Khanna █  Conservative
Don Valley North March 22, 2023 Han Dong █  Liberal Resigned from caucus█  Independent
Durham August 1, 2023 Erin O'Toole █  Conservative Resigned seat March 4, 2024 Jamil Jivani █  Conservative
Toronto—St. Paul's January 16, 2024 Carolyn Bennett █  Liberal Resigned seat June 24, 2024 Don Stewart █  Conservative
Eglinton—Lawrence March 13, 2025 Marco Mendicino █  Liberal Resigned seatn/a [b] –█ Vacant

Opinion polling

Polling firmLast date
of polling		Link LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC Others Margin
of error [c] 		Sample
size [d] 		Polling method [e] Lead
Mainstreet ResearchFebruary 17, 2025 [2] 413913222± 2.7 pp1,278 (1/3)online (rolling)2
Mainstreet ResearchFebruary 16, 2025 [3] 423814221± 2.8 pp1,229 (1/3)online (rolling)4
Mainstreet ResearchFebruary 15, 2025 [4] 413913222± 2.8 pp1,228 (1/3)online (rolling)2
Mainstreet ResearchFebruary 14, 2025 [5] 433910231± 2.7 pp1,272 (1/3)online (rolling)4
Mainstreet ResearchFebruary 13, 2025 [6] 43418322± 2.7 pp1,294 (1/3)online (rolling)2
Mainstreet ResearchFebruary 12, 2025 [7] 434010222± 2.7 pp1,314 (1/3)online (rolling)3
Mainstreet ResearchFebruary 11, 2025 [8] 433910222± 2.7 pp1,303 (1/3)online (rolling)4
Mainstreet ResearchFebruary 10, 2025 [9] 453712212± 2.7 pp1,301 (1/3)online (rolling)8
Mainstreet ResearchFebruary 9, 2025 [10] 43399522± 2.7 pp1,347 (1/3)online (rolling)4
Mainstreet ResearchFebruary 8, 2025 [11] 423613422± 2.8 pp1,187 (1/3)online (rolling)6
Mainstreet ResearchFebruary 7, 2025 [12] 443612422± 2.8 pp1,262 (1/3)online (rolling)8
Mainstreet ResearchFebruary 6, 2025 [13] 423614322± 2.5 pp1,515 (1/4)online (rolling)6
Mainstreet ResearchFebruary 5, 2025 [14] 423712422± 2.8 pp1,236 (1/3)online (rolling)5
Mainstreet ResearchFebruary 4, 2025 [15] 423711422± 2.9 pp1,162 (1/3)online (rolling)5
Mainstreet ResearchFebruary 3, 2025 [16] 43399422± 3.0 pp1,080 (1/3)online (rolling)4
Mainstreet ResearchFebruary 2, 2025 [17] 423911322± 2.6 pp1,374 (1/3)online (rolling)3
Mainstreet ResearchFebruary 1, 2025 [18] 414013322± 2.9 pp1,124 (1/3)online (rolling)1
Mainstreet ResearchJanuary 31, 2025 [19] 393914312± 2.8 pp1,247 (1/3)online (rolling)0
Mainstreet ResearchJanuary 30, 2025 [20] 403913522± 2.4 pp1,644 (1/3)online (rolling)1
Mainstreet ResearchJanuary 26, 2025 [21] 403812422± 3.2 pp936online2
Abacus DataJune 25, 2024 [22] 2744195—5± 3.1 pp1,000online17
Abacus DataMay 15, 2024 [23] 2945174—5± 3.1 pp1,000online16

Summary of results

PartyVotesVote %Vote +/-SeatsSeat +/-
Liberal TBDTBDTBD pp TBD / 122TBD
Conservative TBDTBDTBD pp TBD / 122TBD
New Democratic TBDTBDTBD pp TBD / 122TBD
Green TBDTBDTBD pp TBD / 122TBD
People's TBDTBDTBD pp TBD / 122TBD
Independent TBDTBDTBD pp TBD / 122TBD
OtherTBDTBDTBD pp TBD / 122TBD
TotalTBD
100%
–
122 / 122 (100%)
Increase2.svg 1 [f]

References

  1. ↑ While formal results show the Liberals winning 78 seats in Ontario, those totals include Kevin Vuong, who was disavowed during the campaign by his party, and sat as an Independent in the House of Commons.
  2. ↑ By-elections are not scheduled to fill vancancies within 9 months of a fixed general election date.
  3. ↑ In cases when linked poll details distinguish between the margin of error associated with the total sample of respondents (including undecided and non-voters) and that of the subsample of decided/leaning voters, the former is included in the table. Also not included is the margin of error created by rounding to the nearest whole number or any margin of error from methodological sources. Most online polls (because of their opt-in method of recruiting panelists which results in a non-random sample) cannot have a margin of error. In such cases, shown is what the margin of error would be for a survey using a random probability-based sample of equivalent size.
  4. ↑ Refers to the total, "raw" sample size, including undecided and non-voters, and before demographic weighting is applied. Fractions in parentheses apply to rolling polls (see below) and indicate the proportion of the sample that is independent from the previous poll in the series.
  5. ↑ "Telephone" refers to traditional telephone polls conducted by live interviewers; "IVR" refers to automated Interactive Voice Response polls conducted by telephone; "online" refers to polls conducted exclusively over the internet; "telephone/online" refers to polls which combine results from both telephone and online surveys, or for which respondents are initially recruited by telephone and then asked to complete an online survey. "Rolling" polls contain overlapping data from one poll to the next.
  6. ↑ Ontario gained 1 seat in the electoral redistribution.
  1. ↑ "New House of Commons Seat Allocation" (Press release). Gatineau: Elections Canada. July 8, 2022. Archived from the original on July 8, 2022. Retrieved July 8, 2022.
  2. ↑ "Mainstreet Research Survey - Ontario, Day 20" (PDF). February 18, 2025. Retrieved February 18, 2025.
  3. ↑ "Mainstreet Research Survey - Ontario, Day 19" (PDF). February 17, 2025. Retrieved February 17, 2025.
  4. ↑ "Mainstreet Research Survey - Ontario, Day 18" (PDF). February 16, 2025. Retrieved February 17, 2025.
  5. ↑ "Mainstreet Research Survey - Ontario, Day 17" (PDF). February 15, 2025. Retrieved February 17, 2025.
  6. ↑ "Mainstreet Research Survey - Ontario, Day 16" (PDF). February 14, 2025. Retrieved February 17, 2025.
  7. ↑ "Mainstreet Research Survey - Ontario, Day 15" (PDF). February 13, 2025. Retrieved February 13, 2025.
  8. ↑ "Mainstreet Research Survey - Ontario, Day 14" (PDF). February 12, 2025. Retrieved February 12, 2025.
  9. ↑ "Mainstreet Research Survey - Ontario, Day 13" (PDF). February 11, 2025. Retrieved February 12, 2025.
  10. ↑ "Mainstreet Research Survey - Ontario, Day 12" (PDF). February 10, 2025. Retrieved February 10, 2025.
  11. ↑ "Mainstreet Research Survey - Ontario, Day 11" (PDF). February 9, 2025. Retrieved February 10, 2025.
  12. ↑ "Mainstreet Research Survey - Ontario, Day 10" (PDF). February 8, 2025. Retrieved February 8, 2025.
  13. ↑ "Mainstreet Research Survey - Ontario, Day 9" (PDF). February 7, 2025. Retrieved February 7, 2025.
  14. ↑ "Mainstreet Research Survey - Ontario, Day 8" (PDF). February 6, 2025. Retrieved February 6, 2025.
  15. ↑ "Mainstreet Research Survey - Ontario, Day 7" (PDF). February 5, 2025. Retrieved February 5, 2025.
  16. ↑ "Mainstreet Research Survey - Ontario, Day 6" (PDF). February 4, 2025. Retrieved February 4, 2025.
  17. ↑ "Mainstreet Research Survey - Ontario, Day 5" (PDF). February 3, 2025. Retrieved February 3, 2025.
  18. ↑ "Mainstreet Research Survey - Ontario, Day 4" (PDF). February 2, 2025. Retrieved February 3, 2025.
  19. ↑ "Mainstreet Research Survey - Ontario, Day 3" (PDF). February 1, 2025. Retrieved February 1, 2025.
  20. ↑ "Mainstreet Research Survey - Ontario, Day 2" (PDF). January 31, 2025. Retrieved February 1, 2025.
  21. ↑ "Mainstreet Research Survey - Ontario" (PDF). January 26, 2025. Retrieved January 26, 2025.
  22. ↑ "Abacus Data Ontario Poll: Ford PCs lead by 16 despite increase in disapproval of the provincial government's performance". June 30, 2024. Retrieved June 30, 2024.
  23. ↑ "Abacus Data Ontario Poll: Ford PCs lead by 13 over Crombie Liberals". May 22, 2024. Retrieved May 23, 2024.
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