Opinion polling for the 46th Canadian federal election

Last updated

This table provides a list of scientific, nationwide public opinion polls conducted from the 2025 Canadian federal election leading up to the 46th Canadian federal election.

Contents

National polls

Pre-campaign period

Graphical summary

Opinion polling for the 46th Canadian federal election Opinion polling for the 46th Canadian federal election.svg
Opinion polling for the 46th Canadian federal election
Opinion polling for the 46th Canadian federal election, parties polling between 1% and 15% Opinion polling for the 46th Canadian federal election, minor parties only (parties polling between 1%25 and 15%25).svg
Opinion polling for the 46th Canadian federal election, parties polling between 1% and 15%

Table of polls

Polling firmLast date of polling [a] Link LPC CPC BQ NDP GPC PPC Others [b] Margin of error [c] Sample size [d] Polling method [e] Lead
Nanos Research August 29, 2025 [1] 43.332.46.212.72.91.60.9±3.1 pp 1,009Telephone10.9
Nanos Research August 22, 2025 [2] 43.734.25.510.73.31.60.8±3.0 pp1,045Telephone9.5
August 19, 2025 Elizabeth May announces her intention to resign as leader of the Green Party.
Abacus Data August 19, 2025 [3] 39417722—±2.2 pp1,915Online2
August 18, 2025A federal by-election was held in Battle River—Crowfoot. Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre held the seat for the CPC.
Nanos Research August 15, 2025 [4] 44.432.44.911.63.22.80.7±3.0 pp 1,050Telephone12.0
Nanos Research August 8, 2025 [5] 44.831.96.111.52.62.50.6±3.0 pp1,094Telephone12.9
Liaison StrategiesAugust 8, 2025 [6] 4435611311±3.09 pp1,000IVR9
Abacus Data August 7, 2025 [7] 4340681.51.5—±2.4 pp1,686Online3
Léger August 4, 2025 [8] 4636763—1±2.4 pp1,617Online10
Pallas DataAugust 1, 2025 [9] 43.237.66.37.52.2—3.2±2.7 pp1,301IVR5.6
Nanos Research August 1, 2025 [10] 43.732.55.312.02.53.01.0±3.0 pp1,096Telephone11.2
Innovative ResearchJuly 28, 2025 [11] 4139794—2—3,732Online2
Liaison StrategiesJuly 25, 2025 [6] 4336610311——IVR7
Nanos Research July 25, 2025 [12] 43.633.55.912.12.31.80.8±3.1 pp1,027Telephone10.1
Nanos Research July 18, 2025 [13] 44.334.06.610.32.32.00.5±3.1 pp1,026Telephone10.3
Abacus Data July 15, 2025 [14] 434067311±2.2 pp1,915Online3
Ekos July 14, 2025 [15] 43.230.55.513.03.53.61.0±2.3 pp1,817Online12.7
Nanos Research July 11, 2025 [16] 44.533.85.911.12.11.90.7±3.0 pp1,047Telephone10.7
Léger July 6, 2025 [17] 4835673—1±2.5 pp1,546Online13
Liaison StrategiesJuly 4, 2025 [6] 463569211——IVR11
Nanos Research July 4, 2025 [18] 45.132.66.211.51.81.81.0±3.0 pp1,056Telephone12.5
Research Co.July 2, 2025 [19] 473766211±3.1 pp1,001Online10
Abacus Data July 2, 2025 [20] 414079220±2.5 pp1,500Online1
Innovative ResearchJune 30, 2025 [21] 4338683—2—4,029Online5
Nanos Research June 27, 2025 [22] 44.531.45.912.82.51.71.2±3.0 pp1,076Telephone13.1
Mainstreet Research June 26, 2025 [23] 473836312±2.9 pp1,168IVR9
Liaison StrategiesJune 20, 2025 [6] 4238611311——IVR4
Nanos Research June 20, 2025 [24] 45.230.86.112.22.91.51.3±3.0 pp1,090Telephone14.4
Abacus Data June 19, 2025 [25] 423967311±1.9 pp1,500Online3
Nanos Research June 13, 2025 [26] 44.232.26.311.43.21.71.0±3.0 pp1,080Telephone12.0
Liaison StrategiesJune 6, 2025 [6] 423969211——IVR3
Nanos Research June 6, 2025 [27] 42.632.86.512.03.91.30.9±3.0 pp1,079Telephone9.8
Abacus Data June 5, 2025 [28] 423968310±1.9 pp2,585Online3
Ekos June 4, 2025 [29] 43.932.05.212.73.03.01.0±2.5 pp1,529Online11.9
Spark AdvocacyMay 30, 2025 [30] 414078——5—3,450Online1
Nanos Research May 30, 2025 [31] 41.736.46.510.53.41.10.3±3.0 pp1,079Telephone5.3
Liaison StrategiesMay 23, 2025 [6] 443968111——IVR5
Nanos Research May 23, 2025 [32] 40.438.65.99.83.71.30.3±3.0 pp1,127Telephone1.8
Innovative ResearchMay 22, 2025 [33] 4239683—2—2,517Online3
Abacus Data May 21, 2025 [34] 414078310±2.1 pp2,273Online1
Nanos Research May 16, 2025 [35] 41.439.64.78.53.91.30.6±2.9 pp1,127Telephone1.8
Liaison StrategiesMay 9, 2025 [6] 454067110——IVR5
Nanos Research May 9, 2025 [36] 41.540.55.17.83.31.30.5±2.8 pp1,259Telephone1.0
May 5, 2025 Don Davies is named interim leader of the New Democratic Party.
Nanos Research May 2, 2025 [37] 41.839.25.87.93.21.30.8±2.7 pp1,297Telephone2.6
April 30, 2025 Jonathan Pedneault resigns as co-leader of the Green Party.
April 29, 2025 Jagmeet Singh announces his intention to resign as leader of the New Democratic Party.
2025 election April 28, 2025 [38] 43.841.36.36.31.20.70.4—19,597,674—2.5

Regional polls

A number of polling firms survey federal voting intentions on a regional or provincial level. Note that this section displays results from stand-alone polls, not subsets of national polls.

Central Canada

Quebec

Polling firmLast date
of polling		Link LPC CPC BQ NDP GPC PPC Others Margin
of error [c] 		Sample
size [d] 		Polling method [e] Lead
Léger August 18, 2025 [39] 43222852—0± 3.1 pp 977Online15
Léger June 22, 2025 [40] 44232553—0± 3.0 pp1,056Online19
2025 election April 28, 2025 [41] 42.623.327.74.50.90.80.2—4,457,743—14.9

Ontario

Polling firmLast date
of polling		Link LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC Others Margin
of error [c] 		Sample
size [d] 		Polling method [e] Lead
Léger May 25, 2025 [42] 543753—1± 3.1 pp 908Online17
2025 election April 28, 2025 [41] 49.043.84.91.20.70.2—7,576,590—5.2

Western Canada

Alberta

Polling firmLast date
of polling		Link LPC CPC NDP GPC PPC Others Margin
of error [c] 		Sample
size [d] 		Polling method [e] Lead
Léger May 25, 2025 [43] 355453—4± 3.0 pp 925Online19
2025 election April 28, 2025 [41] 27.963.56.30.40.90.8—2,262,524—35.6

Leadership polls

Aside from conducting the usual opinion surveys on general party preferences, polling firms also survey public opinion on which political party leader would make the best prime minister:

May 9, 2025 – present

Polling firmLast date of pollingLink Mark Carney Pierre Poilievre Yves-François Blanchet Don Davies Elizabeth May Maxime Bernier Unsure/noneMargin of error [c] Lead
Nanos Research August 29, 2025 [1] 51.327.02.52.51.51.014.2±3.1 pp24.3
Nanos Research August 22, 2025 [2] 52.226.52.81.81.91.413.3±3.0 pp25.7
Nanos Research August 15, 2025 [4] 51.524.43.22.42.12.114.3±3.0 pp27.1
Nanos Research August 8, 2025 [5] 51.723.73.82.02.51.914.4±3.0 pp28.0
Nanos Research August 1, 2025 [10] 50.622.93.52.12.72.715.5±3.0 pp27.7
Innovative ResearchJuly 28, 2025 [11] 4029333220—11
Nanos Research July 25, 2025 [12] 49.323.93.32.02.61.517.4±3.1 pp25.4
Nanos Research July 18, 2025 [13] 50.824.53.31.42.11.416.5±3.1 pp26.3
Nanos Research July 11, 2025 [16] 52.125.22.61.81.81.415.1±3.0 pp26.9
Nanos Research July 4, 2025 [18] 52.024.52.72.51.11.415.8±3.0 pp27.5
Research Co.July 2, 2025 [19] 4731342112±3.1 pp16
Innovative ResearchJune 30, 2025 [21] 4330343117—13
Nanos Research June 27, 2025 [23] 52.722.92.52.22.11.615.9±3.0 pp29.8
Nanos Research June 20, 2025 [24] 52.123.22.32.80.91.416.1±3.0 pp28.9
Nanos Research June 13, 2025 [26] 49.724.23.42.52.01.516.8±3.1 pp25.5
Nanos Research June 6, 2025 [27] 50.626.13.13.02.81.812.6±3.0 pp24.5
Nanos Research May 30, 2025 [31] 47.428.43.83.12.41.913.0±3.0 pp19.0
Nanos Research May 23, 2025 [32] 45.834.13.92.22.51.79.8±3.0 pp11.7
Innovative ResearchMay 22, 2025 [33] 4330342218—13
Nanos Research May 16, 2025 [35] 46.937.43.22.72.31.24.9±2.9 pp9.5
Nanos Research May 9, 2025 [36] 46.939.33.12.81.81.14.9±2.8 pp7.6

May 2, 2025

Polling firmLast date of pollingLink Mark Carney Pierre Poilievre Yves-François Blanchet Jagmeet Singh Elizabeth May Maxime Bernier Unsure/noneMargin of error [c] Lead
Nanos Research May 2, 2025 [37] 46.940.73.23.31.91.18.5±2.7 pp 6.2

Government approval polls

Graphical summary

Approval of the 45th Canadian Parliament Approval of the 45th Canadian Parliament (3).png
Approval of the 45th Canadian Parliament

Table of polls

Polling firmLast date of polling [a] LinkApproveDisapproveUnsure/neitherMargin of error [c] Sample size [d] Polling method [e] Net approval
Abacus Data August 19, 2025 [3] 49%30%—±2.2 pp 1,915Online+19%
Abacus Data August 7, 2025 [7] 50%27%—±2.4 pp 1,686Online+23%
Léger August 4, 2025 [8] 54%34%12%±2.4 pp1,617Online+20%
Innovative ResearchJuly 28, 2025 [11] 54%40%7%—3,732Online+14%
Abacus Data July 15, 2025 [14] 52%27%—±2.2 pp1,915Online+25%
Léger July 6, 2025 [17] 55%33%13%±2.5 pp1,546Online+22%
Abacus Data July 2, 2025 [20] 52%25%—±2.5 pp1,500Online+27%
Innovative ResearchJune 30, 2025 [21] 52%42%6%—4,029Online+10%
Abacus Data June 19, 2025 [25] 52%25%—±1.9 pp1,500Online+27%
Spark AdvocacyJune 9, 2025 [44] 67%33%——2,500Online+34%
Abacus Data June 5, 2025 [28] 53%23%—±1.9 pp2,585Online+30%
Spark AdvocacyMay 30, 2025 [30] 64%36%——3,450Online+28%
Innovative ResearchMay 22, 2025 [33] 49%43%8%—2,517Online+6%
Abacus Data May 21, 2025 [34] 50%24%—±2.1 pp2,273Online+26%

Notes

  1. 1 2 Polls that share the same last date of polling are ordered from earliest (below) to latest 37 (above) first date of polling. Polls that have identical field dates are placed in the order in which they were released/published (earliest below, latest above).
  2. ↑ Support for other parties may include the People's Party of Canada depending on the poll.
  3. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 In cases when linked poll details distinguish between the margin of error associated with the total sample of respondents (including undecided and non-voters) and that of the subsample of decided/leaning voters, the former is included in the table. Also not included is the margin of error created by rounding to the nearest whole number or any margin of error from methodological sources. Most online polls (because of their opt-in method of recruiting panelists which results in a non-random sample) cannot have a margin of error. In such cases, shown is what the margin of error would be for a survey using a random probability-based sample of equivalent size.
  4. 1 2 3 4 5 Refers to the total, "raw" sample size, including undecided and non-voters, and before demographic weighting is applied. Fractions in parentheses apply to rolling polls (see below) and indicate the proportion of the sample that is independent from the previous poll in the series.
  5. 1 2 3 4 5 "Telephone" refers to traditional telephone polls conducted by live interviewers; "IVR" refers to automated interactive voice response polls conducted by telephone; "online" refers to polls conducted exclusively over the internet; "telephone/online" refers to polls which combine results from both telephone and online surveys, or for which respondents are initially recruited by telephone and then asked to complete an online survey. "Rolling" polls contain overlapping data from one poll to the next.

References

  1. 1 2 "Trump/US relations and economic issues continue to dominate concern mindset in Canada" (PDF). Nanos Research. September 2, 2025. Retrieved September 2, 2025.
  2. 1 2 "Canadians fixated on Trump: Carney Liberals have double digit advantage over Poilievre Conservatives" (PDF). Nanos Research. August 26, 2025. Retrieved August 26, 2025.
  3. 1 2 Coletto, David. "Abacus Data Poll: Conservatives Edge Ahead as Cost of Living Dominates and Trump Fades". Abacus Data. Retrieved August 24, 2025.
  4. 1 2 "Liberals 44, Conservatives 32, NDP 12 –Poilievre trails Carney on preferred PM tracking by 27 points" (PDF). Nanos Research. August 15, 2025. Retrieved August 19, 2025.
  5. 1 2 "Trump/US Relations Rockets to Top National Concerns – Liberals maintain advantage over Conservatives in ballot support" (PDF). Nanos Research. August 8, 2025. Retrieved August 12, 2025.
  6. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Valentin, David (August 13, 2025). "150 Days of Carney: Liberals at 44% with 9 Point Lead Over Conservatives". Liaison Strategies. Retrieved August 13, 2025.
  7. 1 2 Coletto, David (August 10, 2025). "Abacus Data Poll: Canadian political opinions stable as trade talks continue". Abacus Data. Retrieved August 10, 2025.
  8. 1 2 "Federal Politics, EV Mandates, Trade Tensions, and Foreign Policy" (PDF). Léger. August 14, 2025. Retrieved August 14, 2025.
  9. ↑ "Pallas Economic Patriotism Index: Liberals Lead as Canadians Embrace Trade Fight". Pallas Data. August 5, 2025. Retrieved August 5, 2025.
  10. 1 2 "Two concerns showing upward movement are Trump/US relations and inflation – Liberals ahead of Conservatives by 11 points" (PDF). Nanos Research. August 5, 2025. Retrieved August 5, 2025.
  11. 1 2 3 "Canada This Month Federal Vote And Leadership" (PDF). Innovative Research. September 1, 2025. Retrieved September 2, 2025.
  12. 1 2 "Jobs/economy and Trump/US relations now tied as the top national issue of concern" (PDF). Nanos Research. July 29, 2025. Retrieved July 29, 2025.
  13. 1 2 "Canadians most concerned about jobs/the economy and US trade/Trump" (PDF). Nanos Research. July 22, 2025. Retrieved July 22, 2025.
  14. 1 2 Coletto, David (July 20, 2025). "Abacus Data Poll: Political Opinions Stable as Canadians Settle into Summer, Even as Trump Tariffs Cast a Shadow". Abacus Data. Retrieved July 21, 2025.
  15. ↑ "Liberals Hold 13-Point Lead as Post-Election Honeymoon Continues". EKOS Politics. July 24, 2025. Retrieved July 24, 2025.
  16. 1 2 "Concern about US relations/Trump increasing" (PDF). Nanos Research. July 15, 2025. Retrieved July 15, 2025.
  17. 1 2 "Federal Government Satisfaction" (PDF). Léger. July 11, 2025. Retrieved July 11, 2025.
  18. 1 2 "Liberals 45.1, Conservatives 32.6, NDP 11.5 – Canadians most concerned about jobs/the economy and Trump/US relations" (PDF). Nanos Research. July 8, 2025. Retrieved July 8, 2025.
  19. 1 2 "Ruling Liberals Comfortably Ahead in Canada's Political Scene". Research Co. July 7, 2025. Retrieved July 7, 2025.
  20. 1 2 "Abacus Data Poll: Optimism reaches a multi-year high as Canadians ease into summer. Carney government maintains strong support, but vote choice remains tight". Abacus Data. July 6, 2025. Retrieved July 6, 2025.
  21. 1 2 3 "Canada This Month Federal Government : Approval and Outlook" (PDF). Innovative Research. Retrieved July 25, 2025.
  22. ↑ "Nanos Weekly Tracking, ending June 27, 2025" (PDF). Nanos Research. June 27, 2025. Retrieved June 27, 2025.
  23. 1 2 "Canada National Survey, June 2025 (released June 27, 2025)" (PDF). Mainstreet Research. June 27, 2025. Retrieved June 27, 2025.
  24. 1 2 "Nanos Weekly Tracking, ending June 20, 2025 (released June 24, 2025)" (PDF). Nanos Research. June 24, 2025. Retrieved June 24, 2025.
  25. 1 2 "Abacus Data Poll: 52% think the Carney government is off to a good start. 28% disagree". Abacus Data. June 25, 2025. Retrieved June 25, 2025.
  26. 1 2 "Nanos Weekly Tracking, ending June 13, 2025 (released June 17, 2025)" (PDF). Nanos Research. June 17, 2025. Retrieved June 17, 2025.
  27. 1 2 "Nanos Weekly Tracking, ending June 6, 2025 (released June 10, 2025)" (PDF). Nanos Research. June 10, 2025. Retrieved June 10, 2025.
  28. 1 2 "Abacus Data Poll: Optimism about the Direction of the Country Reaches Three Year High". Abacus Data. June 8, 2025. Retrieved June 8, 2025.
  29. ↑ "June 2025 Political Update". EKOS Politics. June 7, 2025. Retrieved June 8, 2025.
  30. 1 2 "US style polarization in Canada? Maybe not". sparkadvocacy.ca. June 3, 2025. Retrieved June 5, 2025.
  31. 1 2 "Nanos Weekly Tracking, ending May 30, 2025 (released June 3, 2025)" (PDF). Nanos Research. June 3, 2025. Retrieved June 3, 2025.
  32. 1 2 "Nanos Weekly Tracking, ending May 23, 2025 (released May 27, 2025)" (PDF). Nanos Research. May 27, 2025. Retrieved May 22, 2025.
  33. 1 2 3 "Canada This Month Federal Leadership First Impressions" (PDF). Innovative Research. May 27, 2025. Retrieved May 28, 2025.
  34. 1 2 "Abacus Data Poll: Liberals and Conservatives statistically tied as Carney government approval reaches multi-year high". Abacus Data. May 25, 2025. Retrieved May 25, 2025.
  35. 1 2 "Nanos Weekly Tracking, ending May 16, 2025 (released May 20, 2025)" (PDF). Nanos Research. May 20, 2025. Retrieved May 22, 2025.
  36. 1 2 "Nanos Weekly Tracking, ending May 9, 2025 (released May 13, 2025)" (PDF). Nanos Research. May 13, 2025. Retrieved May 22, 2025.
  37. 1 2 "Nanos Weekly Tracking, ending May 2, 2025 (released May 8, 2025)" (PDF). Nanos Research. May 8, 2025. Retrieved May 22, 2025.
  38. ↑ "Election Night Results – National". Elections Canada. Archived from the original on May 1, 2025. Retrieved June 10, 2025.
  39. ↑ "Politique au Québec" (PDF). Leger. August 19, 2025. Retrieved August 21, 2025.
  40. ↑ "Baromètre des personnalités politiques 2025 : ce que pensent les Québécois" (PDF). Leger. June 28, 2025. Retrieved June 28, 2025.
  41. 1 2 3 "Election Night Results – Provinces & Territories". Elections Canada. Retrieved June 15, 2025.
  42. ↑ "Ontario Report Card" (PDF). Leger. May 29, 2025. Retrieved June 12, 2025.
  43. ↑ "Government of Alberta Report Card: June 2025" (PDF). Leger. June 12, 2025. Retrieved June 12, 2025.
  44. ↑ Anderson, Bruce. "Carney approval level hits 67%". spark*advocacy. Retrieved June 18, 2025.
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