2026 United States Senate election in North Carolina

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2026 United States Senate election in North Carolina
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Party Republican Democratic
Incumbent U.S. senator

Thom Tillis
Republican



The 2026 United States Senate election in North Carolina will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of North Carolina. Primary elections will be held on March 3, 2026. The winner will succeed Republican incumbent Thom Tillis, who is not seeking re-election after two terms. [1] Democrats have not won a Senate election in North Carolina since 2008.

Contents

Background

A typical swing state, North Carolina is considered to be a purple to slightly red Southern state at the federal level. It was also a top battleground state in the 2020 and 2024 presidential elections. The state backed Donald Trump in both elections by 1.3% [2] and 3.2%, [3] respectively.

Both parties have seen success in the state in recent years. Republicans control both chambers of the North Carolina Legislature and hold a supermajority in North Carolina's U.S. House delegation, [4] as well as both of the state's senate seats. However, Democrats have seen success in statewide races, including in 2024, where they won half of the state's executive offices. [5]

As an open seat in a marginal state, North Carolina is considered a top battleground in deciding control of the Senate in 2026. [6]

Republican primary

Senator Thom Tillis was considered vulnerable to a primary challenger from his right. On June 10, 2023, the North Carolina Republican Party voted to censure Tillis for his support for the Respect for Marriage Act and immigration reform attempts. [7] [8] On June 28, 2025, President Donald Trump stated he was considering backing a primary challenger after Tillis voted against a motion to consider the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. [9] The following day, Tillis announced that he will not seek reelection. [1]

Candidates

Declared

Filed paperwork

  • Lichia Sibhatu, daycare owner and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022 [12]
  • Elizabeth Temple, teacher [13]

Publicly expressed interest

Potential

Withdrawn

  • Andy Nilsson, retired business owner and high school football coach [19]
  • Thom Tillis, incumbent U.S. senator (2015–present) [1]

Declined

Endorsements

Don Brown
Statewide officials
Michael Whatley

Federal officials

Individuals

  • Lara Trump, former co-chair of the Republican National Committee (2024–2025) and daughter-in-law of president Donald Trump [26]

U.S senators

Thom Tillis (withdrawn)
U.S. senators
Organizations

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2025
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Don Brown (R)$69,514$26,706$43,649
Source: Federal Election Commission [31]

Polling

Hypothetical polling

Thom Tillis vs. Mark Robinson

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Thom
Tillis		Mark
Robinson		Undecided
Campaign Viability Research (R) [32] November 13–15, 2024800 (LV)–42%35%23%

Thom Tillis vs. "Someone Else"

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Thom
Tillis		Someone
Else		Undecided
Campaign Viability Research (R) [32] November 13–15, 2024800 (LV)–31%36%33%

Thom Tillis vs. Lara Trump

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Thom
Tillis		Lara
Trump		Undecided
Victory Insights (R) [33] November 26–29, 2024800 (LV)–11%65%25%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Filed paperwork

  • Orrick Quick, pastor [35]

Publicly expressed interest

Potential

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Roy Cooper
Federal officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Statewide officials
Individuals
Organizations

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Inside Elections [46] TossupAugust 12, 2025
The Cook Political Report [47] TossupAugust 18, 2025
Sabato's Crystal Ball [48] TossupAugust 12, 2025
Race To The WH [49] Tilt D (flip)September 4, 2025

Polling

Michael Whatley vs. Roy Cooper

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Michael
Whatley (R)		Roy
Cooper (D)		OtherUndecided
Harper Polling (R) [50] [A] August 11–12, 2025600 (RV)± 4.0%39%47%4% [b] 10%
Emerson College [51] July 28–30, 20251,000 (RV)± 3.0%41%47%–12%
Victory Insights (R) [52] July 28–30, 2025600 (LV)–40%43%–16%
44% [c] 44%–12%
Hypothetical polling

Thom Tillis vs. Roy Cooper

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Thom
Tillis (R)		Roy
Cooper (D)		OtherUndecided
Change Research (D) [53] [B] March 31 – April 4, 2025867 (LV)± 3.6%44%46%–10%
45% [c] 48%2% [d] 5%
Public Policy Polling (D) [54] March 4–5, 2025662 (V)± 3.8%43%47%–9%
Victory Insights (R) [33] November 26–29, 2024800 (LV)–44%45%–11%

Lara Trump vs. Roy Cooper

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Lara
Trump (R)		Roy
Cooper (D)		OtherUndecided
Victory Insights (R) [33] November 26–29, 2024800 (LV)–44%46%–10%

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ↑ "Someone else" with 4%
  3. 1 2 With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  4. ↑ "Would not vote" with 2%

Partisan clients

  1. ↑ Poll sponsored by The Carolina Journal
  2. ↑ Poll sponsored by Carolina Forward

References

  1. 1 2 3 Carney, Jordain (June 29, 2025). "Thom Tillis says he will retire following Trump attacks". Politico . Retrieved June 29, 2025.
  2. ↑ "November 03, 2020 General Election Results by Contest" (PDF). North Carolina State Board of Elections.
  3. ↑ "NC - State_Composite_Abstract_Report-Contest.pdf". November 26, 2024. Retrieved December 30, 2024.
  4. ↑ State Board of Elections. General election results for Federal offices, 2024 . North Carolina State Board of Elections. Archived at Web Archive.
  5. ↑ "NC SBE Contest Results". er.ncsbe.gov.
  6. ↑ "GOP Sen. Thom Tillis won't seek re-election in North Carolina after drawing Trump's ire". NBC News. June 29, 2025. Retrieved June 29, 2025.
  7. ↑ Berryman, Kim; Pellish, Aaron (June 11, 2023). "Republican Sen. Thom Tillis is censured by North Carolina GOP delegates at convention". CNN.
  8. ↑ Specht, Paul; Doran, Will (November 17, 2024). "Trump nominations put NC's Thom Tillis, the nation's 'most vulnerable' Republican senator, in the spotlight". WRAL-TV . Retrieved November 17, 2024.
  9. ↑ Jacobs, Ben (June 29, 2025). "Trump threatens Tillis with primary challenge". Politico . Retrieved June 29, 2025.
  10. ↑ Kingdollar, Brandon (March 22, 2025). "Angry voters demand an audience in Raleigh as Thom Tillis kicks off Senate reelection bid". NC Newsline . Retrieved March 23, 2025.
  11. ↑ Gans, Jared (July 31, 2025). "Trump-backed RNC Chair Michael Whatley launches North Carolina Senate bid". The Hill . Retrieved July 31, 2025.
  12. ↑ "FEC Form 2 for Report FEC-1598734". docquery.fec.gov.
  13. ↑ "TEMPLE, ELIZABETH ANNE FEC FORM 1 STATEMENT OF ORGANIZATION FILING FEC-1907197".
  14. ↑ Sherman, Lucille (July 8, 2025). "Scoop: Former Carolina Hurricanes president considers a run for U.S. Senate". Axios . Retrieved July 9, 2025.
  15. ↑ Anderson, Byran (March 31, 2025). "Former NC Superintendent candidate Michele Morrow seriously considering primary to Tillis". Anderson Alerts. Retrieved March 31, 2025– via Substack.
  16. ↑ Bacharier, Galen (June 29, 2025). "North Carolina's U.S. Senate race is open. Who's running, who's not and who could jump in". NC Newsline . Retrieved June 29, 2025.
  17. ↑ Sherman, Jake; Desiderio, Andrew; Pedersen, Brendan (June 29, 2025). "Tillis to retire as GOP revs up on reconciliation bill". Punchbowl News . Retrieved June 29, 2025.
  18. ↑ Green, Justin; Sherman, Lucille (June 29, 2025). "Sen. Thom Tillis won't run for reelection in 2026". Axios . Retrieved June 29, 2025.
  19. ↑ Robertson, Gary (August 9, 2025). "Andy Nilsson ends North Carolina Senate bid after Trump backs Michael Whatley". Associated Press . Retrieved August 11, 2025.
  20. ↑ "Pat Harrigan rules out a U.S. Senate run". WSOC . July 26, 2025. Retrieved July 26, 2025.
  21. ↑ Pellish, Aaron (July 1, 2025). "Hudson rules out bid to replace Tillis". Politico . Retrieved July 1, 2025.
  22. ↑ "Murphy won't make Senate run, affirms 2026 reelection bid". The Daily Reflector . July 18, 2025. Retrieved July 18, 2025.
  23. ↑ Doran, Will (January 31, 2025). "Mark Robinson drops lawsuit against CNN, says political career may be over". WRAL-TV . Retrieved January 31, 2025. Robinson said Friday he wouldn't run for Senate or any other office in 2026
  24. 1 2 Grant, Eli (June 30, 2025). "The North Carolina Senate Race: A Political Crossroads for Healthcare, Infrastructure, and Defense Investments". AInvest. Retrieved June 30, 2025.
  25. ↑ Walker, Josephine (July 24, 2025). "Lara Trump won't run for North Carolina senate seat". Axios . Retrieved July 25, 2025.
  26. 1 2 Roarty, Reese Gorman, Ursula Perano, Alex (July 25, 2025). "Trump and GOP Leaders Line Up Behind Michael Whatley for N.C. Senate Seat". The Assembly NC.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
  27. ↑ Bacharier, Galen (June 29, 2025). "North Carolina's U.S. Senate race is open. Who's running, who's not and who could jump in". NC Newsline . Retrieved June 30, 2025. Former U.S. Rep. Mark Walker...took himself out of the running Sunday evening, saying he was 'solely focused' on his nomination process to be ambassador-at-large for international religious freedom
  28. 1 2 3 Gorman, Reese; Perano, Ursula; Roarty, Alex (July 25, 2025). "Trump and GOP Leaders Line Up Behind Michael Whatley for N.C. Senate Seat". The Assembly. Retrieved July 25, 2025.
  29. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Fahlberg, Audrey (December 9, 2024). "Senator Thom Tillis Will Kick Off 2026 Reelection Campaign This Week with Fundraiser". National Review .
  30. ↑ "Featured". AIPAC PAC. Retrieved July 1, 2025.
  31. ↑ "2026 Election United States Senate – North Carolina". Federal Election Commission . Retrieved April 23, 2025.
  32. 1 2 "Hypothetical Robinson-Tillis 2026 Matchup: A Dogfight Waiting To Happen" (PDF). Campaign Viability Research. November 25, 2024. Retrieved April 14, 2025.
  33. 1 2 3 "North Carolina Poll: Lara Trump, Thom Tillis, or Roy Cooper for Us Senate in 2026?" (PDF). Victory Insights. December 2, 2024. Retrieved December 2, 2024.
  34. 1 2 Haggard, DeJuan (July 28, 2025). "Roy Cooper, former NC Governor announces he is running for Senate in 2026". WTVD . Retrieved July 29, 2025.
  35. ↑ "QUICK, ORRICK ROMAINE FEC FORM 2 STATEMENT OF CANDIDACY FILING FEC-1909914".
  36. ↑ Wu, Nicholas; Carney, Jordain (July 7, 2025). "Don Davis eyes open North Carolina Senate seat". Politico . Retrieved July 7, 2025.
  37. ↑ Wu, Nicholas (July 28, 2025). "Davis leans against Senate bid". Politico . Retrieved July 28, 2025.
  38. ↑ Nir, David; Singer, Jeff (May 2, 2025). "Morning Digest: How Senate Republicans are trying to kneecap Ken Paxton". The Downballot. Retrieved May 2, 2025.
  39. ↑ Gonzales, Nathan L. (June 29, 2025). "North Carolina Senate: Tillis Decision Creates Open Seat". Inside Elections. Retrieved June 29, 2025.
  40. ↑ Schneider, Elena (July 1, 2025). "'Unprecedented' national cash: North Carolina Dems have tunnel vision for Roy Cooper". Politico . Retrieved July 1, 2025.
  41. 1 2 Robertson, Gary (July 29, 2025). "Wiley Nickel exits North Carolina Senate race the day after Roy Cooper announces candidacy". Associated Press . Retrieved July 29, 2025.
  42. 1 2 Doran, Will (July 8, 2025). "As Roy Cooper ramps up profile, Jeff Jackson makes US Senate decision". WRAL-TV . Retrieved July 8, 2025.
  43. 1 2 3 4 "Reactions from both sides pour in after Roy Cooper announces he is running for Senate". WTVD . July 28, 2025. Retrieved July 28, 2025.
  44. 1 2 Robertson, Gary (July 28, 2025). "Former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper will run for the US Senate in North Carolina in 2026". Associated Press .
  45. ↑ "🚨Key Endorsements for 2025 & 2026🚨". Jewish Democratic Council of America. Retrieved August 28, 2025.
  46. ↑ "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved January 14, 2025.
  47. ↑ "2026 CPR Senate Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved February 11, 2025.
  48. ↑ "2026 Senate ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved February 13, 2025.
  49. ↑ "2026 Senate Forecast". Race to the WH. Retrieved March 19, 2025.
  50. ↑ "August 2025 – Cooper shows early lead on Whatley in US Senate Race". Carolina Journal. August 14, 2025. Retrieved August 14, 2025.
  51. ↑ "North Carolina 2026 Poll: Cooper Starts US Senate Race with Six-Point Lead and Clear Name Recognition Advantage over Whatley". Emerson College Polling. August 1, 2025. Retrieved August 2, 2025.
  52. ↑ "Roy Cooper holds narrow lead over Michael Whatley in First Poll of 2026 US Senate Race in North Carolina" (PDF). Victory Insights. July 30, 2025. Retrieved July 30, 2025.
  53. ↑ "The Carolina Forward Poll: April 2025". Carolina Forward. April 14, 2025. Retrieved April 14, 2025.
  54. ↑ "North Carolina Survey Results" (PDF). Public Policy Polling. March 6, 2025. Retrieved March 6, 2025.
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