2026 United States Senate election in North Carolina

Last updated

2026 United States Senate election in North Carolina
Flag of North Carolina.svg
  2020 November 3, 20262032 
 
Party Republican Democratic

Incumbent U.S. senator

Thom Tillis
Republican



The 2026 United States Senate election in North Carolina will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of North Carolina. Incumbent two-term Republican Senator Thom Tillis, was re-elected with 48.7% of the vote in 2020. On June 10, 2023, the North Carolina Republican Party had censured Tillis over his bipartisan support on gun control and same-sex marriage. [1]

Contents

Republicans have won every U.S. Senate election in North Carolina since 2010.

Background

A typical swing state, North Carolina is considered to be a purple to slightly red southern state at the federal level. It was also a top battleground state in the 2020 and 2024 presidential elections. The state backed the Republican candidate in both elections by 1.3% and 3.2%, respectively.

Both parties have seen success in the state in recent years. Republicans control both chambers of the North Carolina Legislature and hold a supermajority in North Carolina's U.S. House delegation, as well as both of the state's senate seats. However, Democrats have seen success in statewide races, including in 2024, where they won half of the state's executive offices.

As one of only two seats up held by a Republican in a state that did not vote for Trump by double digits in 2024, North Carolina is considered a key Senate battleground in 2026.

Republican primary

Senator Thom Tillis is considered vulnerable to a primary challenger from his right. On June 10, 2023, the North Carolina Republican Party voted to censure Tillis for his support for the Respect for Marriage Act and immigration reform attempts. [2] [3]

Candidates

Declared

Potential

Declined

Endorsements

Thom Tillis

U.S. senators

Polling

Hypothetical polling

Mark Robinson vs. Thom Tillis

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Mark
Robinson
Thom
Tillis
Undecided
Campaign Viability Research [8] November 13–15, 2024800 (LV)N/A35%42%23%

Thom Tillis vs. Generic Republican

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Thom
Tillis
Generic
Republican
Undecided
Campaign Viability Research [8] November 13–15, 2024800 (LV)N/A31%36%33%

Lara Trump vs. Thom Tillis

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Thom
Tillis
Lara
Trump
Undecided
Victory Insights [9] November 26–29, 2024800 (LV)N/A11%65%25%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Announcement pending

Publicly expressed interest

Potential

General election

Polling

Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Roy
Cooper
Thom
Tillis
Undecided
Victory Insights [9] November 26–29, 2024800 (LV)N/A45%44%11%

with Lara Trump and Roy Cooper

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Roy
Cooper
Lara
Trump
Undecided
Victory Insights [9] November 26–29, 2024800 (LV)N/A46%44%10%

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Roy Cooper</span> Governor of North Carolina since 2017

Roy Asberry Cooper III is an American attorney and politician serving since 2017 as the 75th governor of North Carolina. A member of the Democratic Party, he served as the 50th attorney general of North Carolina from 2001 to 2017, and in the North Carolina General Assembly, in both the House, from 1987 to 1991, and the Senate, from 1991 to 2001.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Robert Brawley</span> American politician from North Carolina

Clyde Robert Brawley is a former American politician who was a Republican member of the North Carolina General Assembly.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">North Carolina Democratic Party</span> Political party in North Carolina

The North Carolina Democratic Party (NCDP) is the North Carolina affiliate of the Democratic Party. It is headquartered in the historic Goodwin House, located in Raleigh.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">North Carolina Republican Party</span> North Carolina affiliate of the Republican Party

The North Carolina Republican Party (NCGOP) is the affiliate of the Republican Party in North Carolina. Michael Whatley was the chair from 2019 until his election as national chair in March 2024. It is currently the state's dominant party, controlling half of North Carolina's U.S. House seats, both U.S. Senate seats, and a 3/5 supermajority control of both chambers of the state legislature, as well as a majority on the state supreme court.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Thom Tillis</span> American politician (born 1960)

Thomas Roland Tillis is an American politician serving as the senior United States senator from North Carolina, a seat he has held since 2015. A member of the Republican Party, Tillis served in the North Carolina House of Representatives from 2007 to 2015, and as its speaker from 2011 to 2015.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2014 United States Senate election in North Carolina</span>

The 2014 United States Senate election in North Carolina took place on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of North Carolina, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The primary took place on May 6, 2014.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2016 North Carolina gubernatorial election</span>

The 2016 North Carolina gubernatorial election was held on November 8, 2016, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the United States Senate and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Democratic state attorney general Roy Cooper won his first term in office, defeating Republican incumbent Pat McCrory.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2020 United States Senate election in North Carolina</span>

The 2020 United States Senate election in North Carolina was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of North Carolina, concurrently with the 2020 United States presidential election as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. North Carolina was one of just five states holding presidential, gubernatorial, and senatorial elections concurrently in 2020. On March 3, 2020, Republican incumbent Thom Tillis and Democratic former state senator Cal Cunningham won their respective primaries.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2020 North Carolina gubernatorial election</span>

The 2020 North Carolina gubernatorial election was held on November 3, 2020, to elect the governor of North Carolina, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to one-third of the United States Senate and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Democratic incumbent Roy Cooper was re-elected to a second term, defeating Republican lieutenant governor Dan Forest. Cooper became the first North Carolina governor to win re-election since Mike Easley in 2004. He also outperformed other Democrats on the ballot and was the only Democrat to win a gubernatorial race in a state carried by Donald Trump in 2020. With a margin of 4.51%, this election was the second closest of the 2020 gubernatorial election cycle after Puerto Rico and the closest in a U.S. state.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2020 North Carolina lieutenant gubernatorial election</span>

The 2020 North Carolina lieutenant gubernatorial election took place on November 3, 2020, to elect the Lieutenant Governor of North Carolina, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the United States Senate and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Primary elections were held on March 3, 2020.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Chuck Edwards</span> American politician (born 1960)

Charles Marion Edwards is an American politician serving as the U.S. representative for North Carolina's 11th congressional district since 2023. A member of the Republican Party, he represented the 48th district in the North Carolina Senate from 2016 to 2023.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2022 United States Senate election in North Carolina</span>

The 2022 United States Senate election in North Carolina was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of North Carolina. Republican congressman Ted Budd won his first term in office, defeating Democratic nominee Cheri Beasley. Primary elections were scheduled for March 8, 2022, but were delayed by the North Carolina Supreme Court and rescheduled for May 17.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2022 United States Senate election in Connecticut</span>

The 2022 United States Senate election in Connecticut was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Connecticut.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Mark Robinson (American politician)</span> American politician (born 1968)

Mark Keith Robinson is an American politician serving as the 35th lieutenant governor of North Carolina since 2021. A member of the Republican Party, he was the party's nominee in the 2024 North Carolina gubernatorial election. He is North Carolina's first Black lieutenant governor and was the first Black major party nominee for governor.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2026 United States Senate elections</span>

The 2026 United States Senate elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with 33 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested in regular elections, the winners of which will serve six-year terms in the United States Congress from January 3, 2027, to January 3, 2033. Senators are divided into three groups, or classes, whose terms are staggered so that a different class is elected every two years. Class 2 senators were last elected in 2020 and will be up for election in this cycle.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2026 United States Senate election in Louisiana</span>

The 2026 United States Senate election in Louisiana will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Louisiana. Incumbent Republican senator Bill Cassidy, who was re-elected in 2020, is running for re-election to a third term. Cassidy's vocal opposition to former president Donald Trump has led to speculation that Republicans will field a primary challenge against him.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2024 United States presidential election in North Carolina</span>

The 2024 United States presidential election in North Carolina took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. North Carolina voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of North Carolina has 16 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state gained a seat.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2024 North Carolina gubernatorial election</span>

The 2024 North Carolina gubernatorial election was held on November 5, 2024, to elect the governor of North Carolina. Democratic state attorney general Josh Stein won his first term in office, defeating Republican lieutenant governor Mark Robinson. He will succeed Democratic incumbent Roy Cooper, who was term-limited.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2024 United States House of Representatives elections in North Carolina</span>

The 2024 United States House of Representatives elections in North Carolina were held on November 5, 2024, to elect the fourteen U.S. representatives from the State of North Carolina, one from all fourteen of the state's congressional districts. The elections coincided with the 2024 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections. The primary elections took place on March 5, 2024.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2024 North Carolina Council of State elections</span>

The North Carolina Council of State elections of 2024 were held on November 5, 2024, to select the ten officers of the North Carolina Council of State. These elections coincided with the presidential election, elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the North Carolina General Assembly and top state courts. Primary elections took place on March 5, 2024, for offices for which more than one candidate filed per party.

References

  1. Sonasundaram, Praveena (June 12, 2023). "North Carolina Republicans censure Sen. Thom Tillis after stance on LGBTQ issues" . The Washington Post .
  2. Berryman, Kim; Pellish, Aaron (June 11, 2023). "Republican Sen. Thom Tillis is censured by North Carolina GOP delegates at convention". CNN .
  3. 1 2 3 Specht, Paul; Doran, Will (November 17, 2024). "Trump nominations put NC's Thom Tillis, the nation's 'most vulnerable' Republican senator, in the spotlight". WRAL-TV . Capitol Broadcasting Company . Retrieved November 17, 2024.
  4. 1 2 Cohen, Zach C. (November 13, 2024). "Senate Republicans Face a More Competitive Senate Map in 2026". Bloomberg Government . Retrieved November 13, 2024. Tillis told reporters in September he plans to run for re-election
  5. Gancarski, A.G. (December 2, 2024). "Lara Trump dominates in Senate poll … but it's not in Florida". Florida Politics . Retrieved December 2, 2024.
  6. Murphy, Brian (November 20, 2024). "Mark Robinson says another run for political office is 'not on my radar at all'". WRAL-TV . Retrieved November 20, 2024.
  7. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Fahlberg, Audrey (December 9, 2024). "Senator Thom Tillis Will Kick Off 2026 Reelection Campaign This Week with Fundraiser". National Review .
  8. 1 2 "Hypothetical Robinson-Tillis 2026 Matchup: A Dogfight Waiting To Happen" (PDF). Campaign Viability Research. Campaign Viability Research.
  9. 1 2 3 "NORTH CAROLINA POLL: LARA TRUMP, THOM TILLIS, OR ROY COOPER FOR US SENATE IN 2026?" (PDF). Victory Insights. December 2, 2024. Retrieved December 2, 2024.
  10. Daniels, Steve (December 6, 2024). "Gov. Roy Cooper reflects on nearly 40 years in NC politics as term winds down, ponders US Senate run". WTVD . Retrieved December 6, 2024.