2026 United States Senate election in North Carolina

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2026 United States Senate election in North Carolina
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Party Republican Democratic
Incumbent U.S. senator

Thom Tillis
Republican



The 2026 United States Senate election in North Carolina will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of North Carolina. Incumbent two-term Republican Senator Thom Tillis, was re-elected with 48.7% of the vote in 2020. On June 10, 2023, the North Carolina Republican Party censured Tillis over his support of gun control and same-sex marriage. [1]

Contents

Republicans have won every U.S. Senate election in North Carolina since 2010.

Background

A typical swing state, North Carolina is considered to be a purple to slightly red southern state at the federal level. It was also a top battleground state in the 2020 and 2024 presidential elections. The state backed the Republican candidate in both elections by 1.3% and 3.2%, respectively.

Both parties have seen success in the state in recent years. Republicans control both chambers of the North Carolina Legislature and hold a supermajority in North Carolina's U.S. House delegation, as well as both of the state's senate seats. However, Democrats have seen success in statewide races, including in 2024, where they won half of the state's executive offices.

As one of only two seats up held by a Republican in a state that did not vote for Trump by double digits in 2024, North Carolina is considered a key Senate battleground in 2026.

Republican primary

Senator Thom Tillis is considered vulnerable to a primary challenger from his right. On June 10, 2023, the North Carolina Republican Party voted to censure Tillis for his support for the Respect for Marriage Act and immigration reform attempts. [2] [3]

Candidates

Declared

  • Andy Nilsson, teacher's assistant [4]
  • Thom Tillis, incumbent U.S. Senator (2015–present) [5]

Potential

Declined

Endorsements

Thom Tillis

U.S. senators

Polling

Hypothetical polling

Mark Robinson vs. Thom Tillis

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Thom
Tillis		Mark
Robinson		Undecided
Campaign Viability Research [9] November 13–15, 2024800 (LV)N/A42%35%23%

Thom Tillis vs. Generic Republican

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Thom
Tillis		Generic
Republican		Undecided
Campaign Viability Research [9] November 13–15, 2024800 (LV)N/A31%36%33%

Lara Trump vs. Thom Tillis

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Thom
Tillis		Lara
Trump		Undecided
Victory Insights [10] November 26–29, 2024800 (LV)N/A11%65%25%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Publicly expressed interest

Potential

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Inside Elections [12] BattlegroundJanuary 17, 2025
The Cook Political Report [13] Lean RFebruary 11, 2025
Sabato's Crystal Ball [14] TossupFebruary 13, 2025

Polling

Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Thom
Tillis		Roy
Cooper		Undecided
Victory Insights [10] November 26–29, 2024800 (LV)N/A44%45%11%

with Lara Trump and Roy Cooper

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Lara
Trump		Roy
Cooper		Undecided
Victory Insights [10] November 26–29, 2024800 (LV)N/A44%46%10%

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear

References

  1. ↑ Sonasundaram, Praveena (June 12, 2023). "North Carolina Republicans censure Sen. Thom Tillis after stance on LGBTQ issues" . The Washington Post .
  2. ↑ Berryman, Kim; Pellish, Aaron (June 11, 2023). "Republican Sen. Thom Tillis is censured by North Carolina GOP delegates at convention". CNN .
  3. 1 2 3 Specht, Paul; Doran, Will (November 17, 2024). "Trump nominations put NC's Thom Tillis, the nation's 'most vulnerable' Republican senator, in the spotlight". WRAL-TV . Capitol Broadcasting Company . Retrieved November 17, 2024.
  4. ↑ Vespa, Emily; Hui, T. Keung (January 28, 2025). "Under the Dome: Tillis challenger launches 2026 campaign; top academic officer named". The News & Observer . Retrieved January 28, 2025.
  5. 1 2 Cohen, Zach C. (November 13, 2024). "Senate Republicans Face a More Competitive Senate Map in 2026". Bloomberg Government . Retrieved November 13, 2024. Tillis told reporters in September he plans to run for re-election
  6. ↑ Gancarski, A.G. (December 2, 2024). "Lara Trump dominates in Senate poll … but it's not in Florida". Florida Politics . Retrieved December 2, 2024.
  7. ↑ Doran, Will (January 31, 2025). "Mark Robinson drops lawsuit against CNN, says political career may be over". WRAL-TV . Retrieved January 31, 2025. Robinson said Friday he wouldn't run for Senate or any other office in 2026
  8. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Fahlberg, Audrey (December 9, 2024). "Senator Thom Tillis Will Kick Off 2026 Reelection Campaign This Week with Fundraiser". National Review .
  9. 1 2 "Hypothetical Robinson-Tillis 2026 Matchup: A Dogfight Waiting To Happen" (PDF). Campaign Viability Research. Campaign Viability Research.
  10. 1 2 3 "NORTH CAROLINA POLL: LARA TRUMP, THOM TILLIS, OR ROY COOPER FOR US SENATE IN 2026?" (PDF). Victory Insights. December 2, 2024. Retrieved December 2, 2024.
  11. ↑ Daniels, Steve (December 6, 2024). "Gov. Roy Cooper reflects on nearly 40 years in NC politics as term winds down, ponders US Senate run". WTVD . Retrieved December 6, 2024.
  12. ↑ "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved January 14, 2025.
  13. ↑ "2026 CPR Senate Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved February 11, 2025.
  14. ↑ "2026 Senate ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved February 13, 2025.
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