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Turnout | 77.4% | ||||||||||||||||
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Tillis: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Cunningham: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% | |||||||||||||||||
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Elections in North Carolina |
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The 2020 United States Senate election in North Carolina was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of North Carolina, concurrently with the 2020 United States presidential election as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. North Carolina was one of just five states holding presidential, gubernatorial, and senatorial elections concurrently in 2020. On March 3, 2020, Republican incumbent Thom Tillis and Democratic former state senator Cal Cunningham won their respective primaries. [1]
Cunningham led Tillis in the polls throughout much of the campaign. [2]
In early October 2020, it was reported that Cunningham had exchanged sexually suggestive messages with a married woman who was not his wife. Cunningham confirmed the texts were authentic and apologized for his behavior. [3] [4] The woman stated that she had a consensual physical relationship with Cunningham in 2020. [5] [6]
Incumbent Republican Senator Thom Tillis was re-elected to a second term. Tillis outperformed pre-election polling to win a narrow victory, successfully breaking the "one-term curse" that existed with this particular Senate seat for over thirty years; as no incumbent had been re-elected to this seat since 1996. [7] [8] [9] On November 10, 2020, a week after Election Day, Cunningham called Tillis to concede the race. [10] Tillis won by a margin of 1.8% over Cunningham, slightly larger than his 1.5% victory in 2014. [11] [12]
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Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Sandy Smith | Thom Tillis | Garland Tucker | Mark Walker | Paul Wright | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
High Point University [23] | February 21–28, 2020 | 247 (LV) | – | – | 69% | – | – | 8% | 8% [lower-alpha 2] | 16% |
444 (RV) | – | – | 58% | – | – | 7% | 10% [lower-alpha 3] | 26% | ||
Meredith College [24] | February 16–24, 2020 | 353 (LV) | ± 3.0% | – | 53% | – | – | 5% | 6% [lower-alpha 4] | 36% |
SurveyUSA [25] | February 13–16, 2020 | 501 (LV) | ± 5.0% | – | 59% | – | – | 3% | 8% [lower-alpha 5] | 29% |
High Point University [26] | January 31 – February 6, 2020 | 198 (LV) | – | – | 62% | – | – | 7% | 5% [lower-alpha 6] | 27% |
400 (RV) | – | – | 52% | – | – | 6% | 5% [lower-alpha 7] | 38% | ||
Smith withdraws from the race; Wright announces his candidacy | ||||||||||
Walker announces he will not run [27] | ||||||||||
Harper Polling/Civitas (R) [28] | December 2–4, 2019 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.38% | 11% [lower-alpha 8] | 63% | – | – | – | – | 25% |
Tucker withdraws from the race | ||||||||||
FOX News [29] | November 10–13, 2019 | 574 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 4% | 54% | 11% | – | – | 5% [lower-alpha 9] | 26% |
Public Policy Polling [30] | August 19–20, 2019 | 564 (V) | – | – [lower-alpha 10] | 38% | 31% | – | – | – | 31% |
Diversified Research (R) [31] [32] [upper-alpha 1] | July 8–9, 2019 | 500 (V) | – | – | 40% | 30% | – | – | – | 30% |
WPA Intelligence (R) [33] [upper-alpha 2] | May 19–21, 2019 | 502 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 2% [lower-alpha 11] | 40% | 11% | 17% | – | – | 30% |
2% [lower-alpha 12] | 18% | 8% | 56% | – | – | 16% | ||||
Tucker announces his candidacy [34] | ||||||||||
Diversified Research (R) [31] [32] [upper-alpha 1] | Months before May, 2019 | – [lower-alpha 13] | – | – | 63% | 7% | – | – | – | 30% |
with only Thom Tillis and Mark Walker
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Thom Tillis | Mark Walker | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WPA Intelligence (R) [33] [upper-alpha 2] | May 19–21, 2019 | 502 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 43% [lower-alpha 11] | 34% | 23% |
28% [lower-alpha 14] | 64% | 8% | ||||
21% [lower-alpha 15] | 69% | 10% |
with Thom Tillis and Generic Republican
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Thom Tillis | Generic Republican | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WPA Intelligence (R) [33] [upper-alpha 2] | May 19–21, 2019 | 502 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 17% [lower-alpha 11] | 18% | 52% [lower-alpha 16] |
7% [lower-alpha 12] | 32% | 57% [lower-alpha 16] |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Thom Tillis (incumbent) | 608,943 | 78.08% | |
Republican | Paul Wright | 58,908 | 7.55% | |
Republican | Larry Holmquist | 57,356 | 7.35% | |
Republican | Sharon Y. Hudson | 54,651 | 7.01% | |
Total votes | 779,858 | 100.00% |
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Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Cal Cunningham | Trevor Fuller | Atul Goel | Erica Smith | Steve Swenson | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
High Point University [66] | February 21–28, 2020 | 274 (LV) | – | 50% | 4% | 1% | 24% | 3% | 18% |
474 (RV) | – | 42% | 5% | 1% | 24% | 4% | 4% | ||
Civitas Institute/Spry Strategies [67] | February 26–27, 2020 | 587 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 45% | 2% | 1% | 23% | 1% | 28% |
NBC News/Marist [68] | February 23–27, 2020 | 568 (LV) | ± 5.1% | 51% | 3% | 1% | 18% | 2% | 25% |
Public Policy Polling [69] | February 23–24, 2020 | 852 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 45% | 4% | 1% | 18% | 2% | 30% |
Meredith College [24] | February 16–24, 2020 | 429 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 2% | 1% | 14% | 2% | 36% |
Civitas Institute/Spry Strategies [70] | February 21–23, 2020 | 553 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 48% | 1% | 0% | 21% | 1% | 29% |
SurveyUSA [25] | February 13–16, 2020 | 698 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 42% | 3% | 1% | 17% | 3% | 34% |
High Point University [71] | January 31 – February 6, 2020 | 224 (LV) | – | 37% | 4% | 0% | 11% | 4% | 44% |
397 (RV) | – | 29% | 5% | 1% | 10% | 5% | 50% | ||
Public Policy Polling [72] | February 4–5, 2020 | 604 (LV) | – | 29% | 3% | 2% | 10% | 4% | 52% |
Public Policy Polling [73] | January 10–12, 2020 | 509 (LV) | – | 22% | 2% | 3% | 12% | 1% | 60% |
FOX News [29] | November 10–13, 2019 | 669 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 13% | 10% | – | 18% | – | 49% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Cal Cunningham | 717,941 | 56.93% | |
Democratic | Erica D. Smith | 438,969 | 34.81% | |
Democratic | Trevor M. Fuller | 48,168 | 3.82% | |
Democratic | Steve Swenson | 33,741 | 2.68% | |
Democratic | Atul Goel | 22,226 | 1.76% | |
Total votes | 1,261,045 | 100.00% |
During the Democratic primary, a Republican-funded Super PAC spent $3 million on ads attacking Cunningham and promoting left-wing rival Erica D. Smith. [79] [80]
Cunningham and Tillis participated in debates on September 13, [81] September 22, [82] and October 1. [83]
In July, Tillis claimed Cunningham had been "silent" on the issue of defunding the police, saying,—"I assume [his] silence is ...consent". In reality, Cunningham had spoken publicly about the issue and written an op-ed a month earlier stating his opposition to defunding the police, advocating police reform instead. [84]
On October 3, the New York Times wrote that the race had fallen into "utter mayhem" within a period of a few hours after Tillis tested positive for COVID-19 and Cunningham admitted to exchanging sexual text messages with a woman who was not his wife, damaging an image that leaned heavily on his character and military service. Days later, the woman stated that she had a consensual physical relationship with Cunningham in 2020. [5] The Army Reserve started an investigation into Cunningham. [85] The husband of the woman who stated that she had had an affair with Cunningham, himself an Army veteran, called on Cunningham to drop out of the Senate race. [6] Asked repeatedly whether he had had other extramarital affairs, Cunningham declined to answer. [86] [87] [88] [89]
Tillis's diagnosis, which came after an outbreak at a White House ceremony for Supreme Court nominee Amy Coney Barrett, temporarily threw Barrett's confirmation into jeopardy, as two Republican senators had already stated their intention to vote against (though one of them would eventually vote in favor of her confirmation). [90] [91]
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
538 [92] | Lean D (flip) | November 2, 2020 |
Economist [93] | Lean D (flip) | November 2, 2020 |
Daily Kos [94] | Tossup | October 30, 2020 |
DDHQ [95] | Lean D (flip) | November 3, 2020 |
Inside Elections [96] | Tilt D (flip) | October 28, 2020 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [97] | Lean D (flip) | November 2, 2020 |
RCP [98] | Tossup | October 23, 2020 |
The Cook Political Report [99] | Tossup | October 29, 2020 |
Politico [100] | Tossup | November 2, 2020 |
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In the first quarter of 2020, Cunningham outraised Tillis for the first time, receiving $4.4 million compared to the $2.1 million Tillis raised. Tillis's prior fundraising, however, left him with the advantage in cash on hand, with $6.5 million in the bank, compared to Cunningham's $3 million. [138]
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Cal Cunningham vs. Thom Tillis | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Cal Cunningham | Thom Tillis | Other/Undecided [lower-alpha 17] | Margin |
270 to Win [139] | November 2, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 47.0% | 44.2% | 8.8% | Cunningham +2.8% |
Real Clear Politics [140] | November 1, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 47.6% | 45.0% | 7.4% | Cunningham +2.6% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Thom Tillis (R) | Cal Cunningham (D) | Shannon Bray (L) | Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Change Research/CNBC [141] | October 29 – November 1, 2020 | 473 (LV) | ± 4.51% | 46% | 50% | – | 5% [lower-alpha 18] |
Swayable [142] | October 27 – November 1, 2020 | 619 (LV) | ± 5.6% | 47% | 53% | – | – |
Ipsos/Reuters [143] | October 27 – November 1, 2020 | 707 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 46% | 48% | – | 6% [lower-alpha 19] |
Data for Progress [144] | October 27 – November 1, 2020 | 908 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 46% | 51% | 1% | 1% [lower-alpha 20] |
Frederick Polls [145] [upper-alpha 3] | October 30–31, 2020 | 676 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 46% | 50% | 3% | 2% [lower-alpha 21] |
Emerson College [146] | October 29–31, 2020 | 855 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 47% [lower-alpha 22] | 50% | – | 2% [lower-alpha 23] |
Morning Consult [147] | October 22–31, 2020 | 1,982 (LV) | ± 2% | 43% | 47% | – | – |
CNN/SSRS [148] | October 23–30, 2020 | 901 (LV) | ± 4% | 44% | 47% | 2% | 5% [lower-alpha 24] |
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports [149] | October 28–29, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 44% | 47% | – | 9% [lower-alpha 25] |
East Carolina University [150] | October 27–28, 2020 | 1,103 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 46% [lower-alpha 22] | 48% | – | 5% [lower-alpha 26] |
Cardinal Point Analytics (R) [151] | October 27–28, 2020 | 750 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 46% | 41% | 6% | 7% [lower-alpha 27] |
Marist College/NBC [152] | October 25–28, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 43% | 53% | – | 4% [lower-alpha 28] |
Gravis Marketing [153] | October 26–27, 2020 | 614 (LV) | ± 4% | 44% | 46% | – | 9% [lower-alpha 29] |
Public Policy Polling (D) [154] [upper-alpha 4] | October 26–27, 2020 | 937 (V) | ± 3.2% | 44% | 47% | – | 9% [lower-alpha 29] |
Meeting Street Insights/Carolina Partnership for Reform (R) [155] | October 24–27, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 43% | 47% | – | – |
Siena College/NYT Upshot [156] | October 23–27, 2020 | 1,034 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 43% | 46% | 2% | 9% [lower-alpha 30] |
Ipsos/Reuters [157] | October 21–27, 2020 | 647 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 47% | 48% | – | 4% [lower-alpha 31] |
RMG Research [158] [lower-alpha 32] | October 24–26, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 42% [lower-alpha 11] | 49% | – | 9% [lower-alpha 33] |
40% [lower-alpha 34] | 51% | – | 9% [lower-alpha 33] | ||||
43% [lower-alpha 35] | 48% | – | 9% [lower-alpha 33] | ||||
Swayable [159] | October 23–26, 2020 | 363 (LV) | ± 7.1% | 50% | 50% | – | – |
SurveyUSA [160] | October 23–26, 2020 | 627 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 45% | 48% | – | 7% [lower-alpha 36] |
YouGov/UMass Lowell [161] | October 20–26, 2020 | 911 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 45% | 49% | – | 7% [lower-alpha 37] |
Harper Polling/Civitas (R) [162] | October 22–25, 2020 | 504 (LV) | ± 4.37% | 43% | 46% | 2% | 8% [lower-alpha 38] |
YouGov/CBS [163] | October 20–23, 2020 | 1,022 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 43% | 49% | – | 8% [lower-alpha 39] |
Trafalgar Group [164] | October 20–22, 2020 | 1,098 (LV) | ± 2.89% | 49% | 47% | 2% | 2% [lower-alpha 40] |
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports [165] | October 20–21, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 45% | 45% | – | 10% [lower-alpha 41] |
Citizen Data [166] | October 17–20, 2020 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 42% | 48% | – | 9% [lower-alpha 42] |
Ipsos/Reuters [167] | October 14–20, 2020 | 660 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 47% | 47% | – | 6% [lower-alpha 43] |
Morning Consult [147] | October 11–20, 2020 | 1,904 (LV) | ± 2.2% | 42% | 48% | – | – |
Meredith College [168] | October 16–19, 2020 | 732 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 38% | 43% | 4% | 15% [lower-alpha 44] |
Change Research/CNBC [169] | October 16–19, 2020 | 521 (LV) [lower-alpha 45] | – | 45% | 51% | – | – |
Data for Progress (D) [170] | October 15–18, 2020 | 929 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 42% | 46% | 1% | 11% [lower-alpha 46] |
East Carolina University [171] | October 15–18, 2020 | 1,155 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 47% | 48% | – | 5% [lower-alpha 47] |
ABC/Washington Post [172] | October 12–17, 2020 | 646 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 47% | 49% | – | 4% [lower-alpha 48] |
Emerson College [173] | October 13–14, 2020 | 721 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 44% | 45% | – | 12% [lower-alpha 49] |
Civiqs/Daily Kos [174] | October 11–14, 2020 | 1,211 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 45% | 51% | 2% | 3% [lower-alpha 50] |
Siena College/NYT Upshot [175] | October 9–13, 2020 | 627 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 37% | 41% | 4% | 19% [lower-alpha 51] |
Ipsos/Reuters [176] | October 7–13, 2020 | 660 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 42% | 46% | – | 12% [lower-alpha 52] |
Monmouth University [177] | October 8–11, 2020 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 44% | 48% | 3% | 4% [lower-alpha 53] |
500 (LV) [lower-alpha 54] | 44% | 49% | – | 6% [lower-alpha 55] | |||
500 (LV) [lower-alpha 56] | 47% | 48% | – | 4% [lower-alpha 28] | |||
SurveyUSA [178] | October 8–11, 2020 | 669 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 39% | 49% | – | 11% [lower-alpha 57] |
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. (R) [179] [upper-alpha 5] | October 7–11, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 44% | 46% | – | 9% [lower-alpha 58] |
RMG Research [180] [lower-alpha 59] | October 7–11, 2020 | 800 (LV) | – | 36% | 46% | 4% | 15% [lower-alpha 60] |
Morning Consult [181] | October 2–11, 2020 | 1,993 (LV) | ± 2.2% | 41% | 47% | – | – |
Ipsos/Reuters [182] | September 29 – October 6, 2020 | 693 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 42% | 47% | – | 11% [lower-alpha 61] |
Public Policy Polling [183] | October 4–5, 2020 | 911 (V) | ± 3.3% | 42% | 48% | – | 11% [lower-alpha 62] |
Data For Progress (D) [184] | September 30 – October 5, 2020 | 1,285 (LV) | ± 2.7% | 39% | 50% | 2% | 9% [lower-alpha 63] |
Change Research/CNBC [185] | October 2–4, 2020 | 396 (LV) | – | 46% | 50% | – | 4% [lower-alpha 64] |
East Carolina University [186] | October 2–4, 2020 | 1,232 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 47% | 46% | – | 7% [lower-alpha 65] |
ALG Research (D) [187] [upper-alpha 6] | September 22–28, 2020 | 822 (V) | – | 41% | 53% | – | – |
Hart Research Associates (D) [188] [upper-alpha 7] | September 24–27, 2020 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 41% | 54% | – | – |
YouGov/CBS [189] | September 22–25, 2020 | 1,213 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 38% | 48% | – | 14% [lower-alpha 66] |
YouGov/UMass Lowell [190] | September 18–25, 2020 | 921 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 43% | 49% | – | 8% [lower-alpha 67] |
Meredith College [191] | September 18–22, 2020 | 705 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 42% | 43% | 4% | 13% [lower-alpha 68] |
Change Research/CNBC [192] | September 18–20, 2020 | 579 (LV) | – | 43% | 48% | – | 9% [lower-alpha 69] |
Harper Polling/Civitas (R) [193] | September 17–20, 2020 | 612 (LV) | ± 3.96% | 38% | 44% | 3% | 15% [lower-alpha 70] |
Morning Consult [194] | September 11–20, 2020 | 1,604 (LV) | ± (2% – 7%) | 38% [lower-alpha 71] | 47% | – | – |
Emerson College [195] | September 16–18, 2020 | 717 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 43% | 49% | – | 8% [lower-alpha 72] |
Morning Consult [196] | September 8–17, 2020 | 1,664 (LV) [lower-alpha 45] | ± (2% – 4%) | 39% | 46% | – | – |
Ipsos/Reuters [197] | September 11–16, 2020 | 586 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 44% | 48% | – | 9% [lower-alpha 73] |
Siena College/NYT Upshot [198] | September 11–16, 2020 | 653 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 37% | 42% | 2% | 19% [lower-alpha 74] |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [199] | September 12–15, 2020 | 1,092 (LV) | ± 2.97% | 38% | 49% | – | 13% [lower-alpha 75] |
Suffolk University [200] | September 10–14, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 38% | 42% | 6% | 15% [lower-alpha 76] |
SurveyUSA [201] | September 10–13, 2020 | 596 (LV) | ± 5.6% | 40% | 47% | – | 13% [lower-alpha 77] |
CNN/SSRS [202] | September 9–13, 2020 | 787 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 47% | 3% | 4% [lower-alpha 78] |
893 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 44% | 46% | 4% | 6% [lower-alpha 79] | ||
Kaiser Family Foundation/Cook Political Report [203] | August 29 – September 13, 2020 | 1,116 (RV) | – | 37% | 41% | – | 22% [lower-alpha 80] |
The Trafalgar Group (R) [204] | September 9–11, 2020 | 1,046 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 46% | 3% | 6% [lower-alpha 81] |
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [205] | September 7–8, 2020 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 47% | – | 10% [lower-alpha 82] |
Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group [206] [upper-alpha 8] | August 8 – September 8, 2020 | 1,600 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 39% | 42% | 5% | 13% [lower-alpha 83] |
Change Research/CNBC [207] | September 4–6, 2020 | 442 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 44% | 51% | – | 5% [lower-alpha 84] |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [208] | August 30 – September 3, 2020 | 951 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 37% | 47% | – | 16% [lower-alpha 85] |
Monmouth University [209] | August 29 – September 1, 2020 | 401 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 45% | 46% | 2% | 7% [lower-alpha 86] |
401 (LV) [lower-alpha 87] | 45% | 47% | – | 8% [lower-alpha 88] | |||
401 (LV) [lower-alpha 89] | 46% | 46% | – | 8% [lower-alpha 88] | |||
FOX News [210] | August 29 – September 1, 2020 | 722 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 42% | 48% | 3% | 8% [lower-alpha 90] |
804 (RV) | 40% | 47% | 3% | 10% [lower-alpha 91] | |||
East Carolina University [211] | August 29–30, 2020 | 1,101 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 44% | 44% | – | 12% [lower-alpha 92] |
Change Research/CNBC [212] | August 21–23, 2020 | 560 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 42% | 52% | – | 6% [lower-alpha 93] |
Morning Consult [213] | August 14–23, 2020 | 1,541 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 39% | 47% | – | 14% |
Redfield and Wilton Strategies [214] | August 16–18, 2020 | 856 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 38% | 47% | – | 16% [lower-alpha 94] |
East Carolina University [215] | August 12–13, 2020 | 1,255 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 40% | 44% | – | 16% [lower-alpha 95] |
Emerson College [216] | August 8–10, 2020 | 673 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 42% | 44% | – | 14% [lower-alpha 96] |
Harper Polling/Civitas (R) [217] | August 6–10, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 38% | 41% | 2% | 18% [lower-alpha 97] |
Change Research/CNBC [218] | August 7–9, 2020 | 491 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 43% | 48% | – | 10% [lower-alpha 98] |
Public Policy Polling (D) [219] [upper-alpha 9] | July 30–31, 2020 | 934 (V) | ± 3.2% | 44% | 48% | – | 8% [lower-alpha 72] |
Data for Progress [220] | July 24 – August 2, 2020 | 1,170 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 41% | 49% | – | 10% [lower-alpha 99] |
YouGov/CBS [221] | July 28–31, 2020 | 1,121 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 39% | 48% | – | 12% [lower-alpha 100] |
HIT Strategies (D) [222] [upper-alpha 10] | July 23–31, 2020 | 400 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 32% | 48% | – | 21% [lower-alpha 101] |
Change Research/CNBC [223] | July 24–26, 2020 | 284 (LV) | ± 5.6% | 40% | 52% | – | 8% |
Morning Consult [224] | July 17–26, 2020 | 1,504 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 37% | 46% | – | 17% |
Cardinal Point Analytics (R) [225] [lower-alpha 102] | July 22–24, 2020 | 735 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 43% | 43% | 1% | 13% [lower-alpha 103] |
Public Policy Polling [226] | July 22–23, 2020 | 939 (V) | ± 3.2% | 40% | 48% | – | 13% [lower-alpha 104] |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [227] | July 19–23, 2020 | 919 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 36% | 47% | – | 16% [lower-alpha 105] |
Marist College/NBC News [228] | July 14–22, 2020 | 882 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 50% | – | 10% [lower-alpha 106] |
Spry Strategies (R) [229] [upper-alpha 11] | July 11–16, 2020 | 750 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 40% | 40% | – | 20% [lower-alpha 107] |
Cardinal Point Analytics (R) [230] | July 13–15, 2020 | 547 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 44% | 47% | 1% | 7% [lower-alpha 108] |
Change Research/CNBC [231] | July 10–12, 2020 | 655 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 42% | 49% | – | 9% [lower-alpha 109] |
Public Policy Polling [232] | July 7–8, 2020 | 818 (V) | ± 3.4% | 39% | 47% | – | 15% [lower-alpha 110] |
Change Research/CNBC [233] | June 26–28, 2020 | 468 (LV) [lower-alpha 45] | ± 3.9% | 41% | 51% | – | 8% [lower-alpha 111] |
East Carolina University [234] | June 22–25, 2020 | 1,149 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 41% | 41% | – | 18% [lower-alpha 112] |
Public Policy Polling [235] | June 22–23, 2020 | 1,157 (V) | ± 2.9% | 40% | 44% | – | 16% [lower-alpha 113] |
FOX News [236] | June 20–23, 2020 | 1,012 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 37% | 39% | 3% | 20% [lower-alpha 114] |
NYT Upshot/Siena College [237] | June 8–18, 2020 | 653 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 39% | 42% | – | 19% [lower-alpha 115] |
Gravis Marketing (R) [238] [upper-alpha 12] | June 17, 2020 | 631 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 46% | 45% | – | 9% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [239] | June 14–17, 2020 | 902 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 36% | 45% | – | 19% [lower-alpha 116] |
Public Policy Polling [240] | June 2–3, 2020 | 913 (V) | ± 3.2% | 41% | 43% | – | 16% [lower-alpha 113] |
Harper Polling/Civitas (R) [241] | May 26–28, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 38% | 36% | 3% | 24% [lower-alpha 117] |
Meeting Street Insights (R) [242] [lower-alpha 118] | May 9–13, 2020 | 500 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 44% | 46% | – | 8% [lower-alpha 72] |
East Carolina University [243] | May 7–9, 2020 | 1,111 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 40% | 41% | – | 19% [lower-alpha 119] |
Civiqs/Daily Kos (D) [244] | May 2–4, 2020 | 1,362 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 50% | – | 9% [lower-alpha 120] |
Meredith College [245] | April 27–28, 2020 | 604 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 34% | 44% | – | 22% |
SurveyUSA [246] | April 23–26, 2020 | 580 (LV) | ± 5.5% | 39% | 41% | – | 20% [lower-alpha 121] |
Public Policy Polling [247] | April 14–15, 2020 | 1,318 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 40% | 47% | – | 13% |
Harper Polling/Civitas (R) [248] | April 5–7, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 38% | 34% | – | 28% |
East Carolina University [249] | February 27–28, 2020 | 1,288 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 44% | 42% | – | 14% |
NBC News/Marist [68] | February 23–27, 2020 | 2,120 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 43% | 48% | – | 9% |
Public Policy Polling [250] [upper-alpha 13] | February 25–26, 2020 [lower-alpha 45] | 911 (RV) | – | 41% | 46% | – | 13% |
Public Opinion Strategies (R) [251] [upper-alpha 14] | January 11–15, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 44% | – | 8% |
ALG Research (D) [252] [upper-alpha 15] | January 8–13, 2020 | 700 (LV) | – | 42% | 44% | – | 13% |
Meredith College [253] | September 29 – October 7, 2019 | 996 (RV) | ± 3% | 33% | 33% | – | 32% |
Public Policy Polling (D) [254] [upper-alpha 15] | September 16–17, 2019 | 628 (V) | ± 3.9% | 43% | 45% | – | 12% |
Fabrizio Ward [255] [upper-alpha 8] | July 29–31, 2019 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 42% | – | 17% |
Public Policy Polling [256] [upper-alpha 16] | June 17–18, 2019 | 610 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 40% | 41% | – | 19% |
with Erica D. Smith
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Thom Tillis (R) | Erica D. Smith (D) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Meredith College [253] | September 29 – October 7, 2019 | 996 (RV) | ± 3% | 33% | 34% | 17% |
Emerson College [257] | May 31 – June 3, 2019 | 932 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 39% | 46% | 15% |
with Generic Democrat
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Thom Tillis (R) | Generic Democrat | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling (D) [258] [upper-alpha 17] | June 30 – July 1, 2017 | 1,102 (V) | ± 3.6% | 44% | 48% | 8% |
with Thom Tillis and Generic Opponent
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Thom Tillis (R) | Generic Opponent | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fabrizio Ward [255] [upper-alpha 8] | July 29–31, 2019 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 26% | 52% [lower-alpha 122] | 3% [lower-alpha 123] | 19% |
with Generic Republican and Generic Democrat
Like many Republican Senate candidates in 2020, Tillis did much better on Election Day than pre-election prediction polling indicated. The senator narrowly defeated Cunningham 48.7 to 46.9 and slightly outperformed President Trump in terms of margin of victory. Tillis's upset victory has been largely attributed to Cunningham's response to his alleged affair as well as Tillis's fierce campaigning during the last few weeks of the campaign. [261]
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Thom Tillis (incumbent) | 2,665,598 | 48.69% | −0.13% | |
Democratic | Cal Cunningham | 2,569,965 | 46.94% | −0.32% | |
Libertarian | Shannon Bray | 171,571 | 3.13% | −0.61% | |
Constitution | Kevin E. Hayes | 67,818 | 1.24% | N/A | |
Total votes | 5,474,952 | 100.00% | |||
Republican hold |
By county | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
|
Tillis won 8 of 13 congressional districts. [264]
District | Tillis | Cunningham | Representative |
---|---|---|---|
1st | 43% | 53% | G. K. Butterfield |
2nd | 35% | 60% | George Holding |
Deborah K. Ross | |||
3rd | 59% | 37% | Greg Murphy |
4th | 32% | 64% | David Price |
5th | 64% | 31% | Virginia Foxx |
6th | 37% | 59% | Mark Walker |
Kathy Manning | |||
7th | 56% | 39% | David Rouzer |
8th | 50% | 44% | Richard Hudson |
9th | 53% | 43% | Dan Bishop |
10th | 64% | 31% | Patrick McHenry |
11th | 53% | 42% | Madison Cawthorn |
12th | 29% | 66% | Alma Adams |
13th | 64% | 32% | Ted Budd |
Partisan clients
Voter samples and additional candidates
James Calvin "Cal" Cunningham III is an American lawyer, politician, and retired military officer. A member of the Democratic Party and a lieutenant colonel in the United States Army Reserve, he served one term as a North Carolina state senator from 2001 to 2003. Having previously run for United States Senate in a 2010 primary, Cunningham was the Democratic nominee for the 2020 U.S. Senate election in North Carolina, narrowly losing to incumbent Republican Thom Tillis.
Thomas Roland Tillis is an American politician serving as the senior United States senator from North Carolina, a seat he has held since 2015. A member of the Republican Party, Tillis served in the North Carolina House of Representatives from 2007 to 2015, and as its speaker from 2011 to 2015.
The 2014 United States Senate election in North Carolina took place on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of North Carolina, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The primary took place on May 6, 2014.
The 2020 United States Senate election in Michigan was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent Michigan. It was held concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
The 2020 United States Senate election in Colorado was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Colorado, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
The 2020 United States Senate election in Virginia was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Virginia, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic senator Mark Warner won reelection to a third term against Republican nominee Daniel Gade.
The 2020 United States Senate election in Iowa was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Iowa, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Primaries were held on June 2.
The 2020 United States Senate election in Montana was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Montana. It was held concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. The primaries for both the Democratic and Republican nominations took place on June 2, 2020. Incumbent senator Steve Daines won the Republican primary, while Montana Gov. Steve Bullock won the Democratic primary.
The 2020 United States Senate election in Maine was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Maine, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. This was Maine's first election for its Class 2 seat to use its ranked choice voting system. Because the first round of the general election saw a majority (51%), the instant runoff tabulation of more than 800,000 ballots was not carried out.
The 2020 United States Senate election in Kentucky was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Kentucky, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican Senator Mitch McConnell, who had been Senate Majority Leader since 2015 and senator from Kentucky since 1985, won reelection to a seventh term in office. He faced off against former U.S. Marine fighter pilot Amy McGrath and Libertarian Brad Barron.
The 2020 United States Senate election in South Carolina was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of South Carolina, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
The 2020 North Carolina gubernatorial election was held on November 3, 2020, to elect the Governor of North Carolina, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to one-third of the United States Senate and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic Governor Roy Cooper was eligible to run for re-election to a second term in office, and announced his intention to do so on December 5, 2019.
Erica Danette Smith is an American engineer and politician who represented District 3 in the North Carolina Senate from 2015 to 2021. She was a candidate for the Democratic nomination for the U.S. Senate in 2020. She finished second in the Democratic primaries on March 3, 2020. She was a candidate for the Democratic nomination for the U.S. Senate in 2022, but she switched to the race for North Carolina's 1st congressional district after Rep. G. K. Butterfield announced that he would not run for another term.
The 2020 United States Senate special election in Arizona was held on November 3, 2020, following the death in office of incumbent Republican U.S. Senator John McCain on August 25, 2018. Governor Doug Ducey was required by Arizona law to appoint a Republican to fill the vacant seat until a special election winner could be sworn in. On September 5, 2018, Ducey appointed former U.S. Senator Jon Kyl to fill McCain's seat. However, Kyl announced he would resign on December 31, 2018.
The 2022 United States Senate election in North Carolina was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of North Carolina. Primary elections were scheduled for March 8, 2022, but were delayed by the North Carolina Supreme Court and rescheduled for May 17.
The 2020 United States House of Representatives elections in Iowa was held on November 3, 2020, to elect the four U.S. representatives from the state of Iowa, one from each of the state's four congressional districts. The elections coincided with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate and various state and local elections.
The 2022 United States Senate election in Connecticut was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Connecticut.
A special election was held on September 10, 2019, to fill the vacancy in North Carolina's 3rd congressional district in the United States House of Representatives for the remainder of the 116th United States Congress. Walter B. Jones Jr., the incumbent representative, died on February 10, 2019.
The 2022 United States House of Representatives elections in North Carolina were held on November 8, 2022, to elect U.S. representatives from the state of North Carolina, concurrent with nationwide elections to the House of Representatives and U.S. Senate, alongside legislative elections to the state house and senate. Primaries were held on May 17, 2022.
The 2024 North Carolina gubernatorial election will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect the governor of North Carolina, concurrently with the 2024 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various other state and local elections. Democratic state attorney general Josh Stein and Republican lieutenant governor Mark Robinson are seeking their first term in office. The winner will succeed incumbent Democratic governor Roy Cooper, who is term limited. This is the only Democratic-held governorship up for election in 2024 in a state Donald Trump won in 2020. Primary elections took place on March 5, 2024.
Tom Ross, the president of the Volcker Alliance and former president of the University of North Carolina system, is a potential candidate, according to North Carolina Democrats. Ross, who was mentioned as a possible Senate candidate in 2016 but declined to run, confirmed to POLITICO that people have talked to him about the race and he's "considering what they have to say."
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: CS1 maint: unfit URL (link)Official campaign websites