2020 United States House of Representatives elections in Kentucky

Not to be confused with 2020 Kentucky House of Representatives election.

For related races, see 2020 United States House of Representatives elections.

2020 United States House of Representatives elections in Kentucky

←  2018 November 3, 2020 2022  →
All 6 Kentucky seats to the United States House of Representatives
Majority party Minority party   Party Republican Democratic Last election 5 1 Seats won 5 1 Seat change Popular vote 1,363,964 735,419 Percentage 64.46% 34.76% Swing 4.87% 4.29%
Election results by district Election results by county Republican   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90%   >90% Democratic   50–60%   60–70%

The 2020 United States House of Representatives elections in Kentucky was held on November 3, 2020, to elect the six U.S. representatives from the state of Kentucky, one from each of the state's six congressional districts. The elections coincided with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate and various state and local elections.

Overview

District	Republican		Democratic		Others		Total		Result
	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%
District 1	246,329	74.99%	82,141	25.01%	0	0.00%	328,470	100.0%	Republican hold
District 2	255,735	70.96%	94,643	26.26%	10,021	2.78%	360,399	100.0%	Republican hold
District 3	136,425	37.16%	230,672	62.84%	0	0.00%	367,097	100.0%	Democratic hold
District 4	256,613	67.09%	125,896	32.91%	0	0.00%	382,509	100.0%	Republican hold
District 5	250,914	84.21%	47,056	15.79%	0	0.00%	297,970	100.0%	Republican hold
District 6	216,948	57.32%	155,011	40.96%	6,491	1.72%	378,450	100.0%	Republican hold
Total	1,363,964	64.46%	735,419	34.76%	16,512	0.78%	2,115,895	100.0%

Popular vote Republican   64.46% Democratic   34.76% Other   0.78%

House seats Republican   83.33% Democratic   16.67%

District 1

2020 Kentucky's 1st congressional district election

←  2018 2022  →

Nominee James Comer James Rhodes Party Republican Democratic Popular vote 246,329 82,141 Percentage 75.0% 25.0%

County results Comer:     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%

U.S. Representative before election James Comer Republican Elected U.S. Representative James Comer Republican

See also: Kentucky's 1st congressional district

The 1st district takes in Western Kentucky, including Paducah, Hopkinsville, Murray, and Henderson. The incumbent is Republican James Comer, who was re-elected with 68.6% of the vote. ^[1]

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

• James Comer, incumbent U.S. representative ^[2]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

• James Rhodes ^[2]

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report [3]	Safe R	July 2, 2020
Inside Elections [4]	Safe R	June 2, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball [5]	Safe R	July 2, 2020
Politico [6]	Safe R	April 19, 2020
Daily Kos [7]	Safe R	June 3, 2020
RCP [8]	Safe R	June 9, 2020
Niskanen [9]	Safe R	June 7, 2020

Results

Kentucky's 1st congressional district, 2020 ^[10]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	James Comer (incumbent)	246,329	75.0
	Democratic	James Rhodes	82,141	25.0
Total votes			328,470	100.0
	Republican hold

District 2

2020 Kentucky's 2nd congressional district election

←  2018 2022  →

Nominee Brett Guthrie Hank Linderman Party Republican Democratic Popular vote 255,735 94,643 Percentage 70.9% 26.3%

County results Guthrie:     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%

U.S. Representative before election Brett Guthrie Republican Elected U.S. Representative Brett Guthrie Republican

See also: Kentucky's 2nd congressional district

The 2nd district encompasses west-central Kentucky, taking in Bowling Green, Owensboro, and Elizabethtown. The incumbent is Republican Brett Guthrie, who was re-elected with 66.7% of the vote in 2018. ^[1]

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

• Kathleen Free ^[11]
• Brett Guthrie, incumbent U.S. representative ^[11]

Primary results

Republican primary results ^[12]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Brett Guthrie (incumbent)	65,313	88.6
	Republican	Kathleen Free	8,380	11.4
Total votes			73,693	100.0

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

• Hank Linderman, nominee for Kentucky's 2nd congressional district in 2018 ^[11]

Third parties

Libertarian Party

• Robert Lee Perry^{[ citation needed ]}

Populist Party

• Lewis Carter^{[ citation needed ]}

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report [3]	Safe R	July 2, 2020
Inside Elections [4]	Safe R	June 2, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball [5]	Safe R	July 2, 2020
Politico [6]	Safe R	April 19, 2020
Daily Kos [7]	Safe R	June 3, 2020
RCP [8]	Safe R	June 9, 2020
Niskanen [9]	Safe R	June 7, 2020

Results

Kentucky's 2nd congressional district, 2020 ^[10]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Brett Guthrie (incumbent)	255,735	70.9
	Democratic	Hank Linderman	94,643	26.3
	Libertarian	Robert Lee Perry	7,588	2.1
	Populist	Lewis Carter	2,431	0.7
	Write-in		2	0.0
Total votes			360,399	100.0
	Republican hold

District 3

2020 Kentucky's 3rd congressional district election

←  2018 2022  →

Nominee John Yarmuth Rhonda Palazzo Party Democratic Republican Popular vote 230,672 137,425 Percentage 62.7% 37.3%

County result Yarmuth:     60–70%

U.S. Representative before election John Yarmuth Democratic Elected U.S. Representative John Yarmuth Democratic

See also: Kentucky's 3rd congressional district

The 3rd district encompasses nearly all of the Louisville metropolitan area. The incumbent is Democrat John Yarmuth, who was re-elected with 62.1% of the vote in 2018. ^[1]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

• John Yarmuth, incumbent U.S. representative ^[13]

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

• Mike Craven, activist and candidate for Kentucky's 3rd congressional district in 2018 ^[14]
• Waymen Eddings, businessman ^[14]
• Rhonda Palazzo, realtor and candidate for Kentucky's 3rd congressional district in 2018 ^[14]

Primary results

Republican primary results ^[12]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Rhonda Palazzo	19,806	42.4
	Republican	Mike Craven	19,676	42.1
	Republican	Waymen Eddings	7,275	15.5
Total votes			46,757	100.0

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report [3]	Safe D	July 2, 2020
Inside Elections [4]	Safe D	June 2, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball [5]	Safe D	July 2, 2020
Politico [6]	Safe D	April 19, 2020
Daily Kos [7]	Safe D	June 3, 2020
RCP [8]	Safe D	June 9, 2020
Niskanen [9]	Safe D	June 7, 2020

Results

Kentucky's 3rd congressional district, 2020 ^[10]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	John Yarmuth (incumbent)	230,672	62.7
	Republican	Rhonda Palazzo	137,425	37.3
Total votes			368,097	100.0
	Democratic hold

District 4

2020 Kentucky's 4th congressional district election

←  2018 2022  →

Nominee Thomas Massie Alexandra Owensby Party Republican Democratic Popular vote 256,613 125,896 Percentage 67.1% 32.9%

County results Massie:     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%

U.S. Representative before election Thomas Massie Republican Elected U.S. Representative Thomas Massie Republican

See also: Kentucky's 4th congressional district

The 4th district is located in the northeastern part of the state along the Ohio River, including the suburbs of Cincinnati and a small part of Louisville. The incumbent is Republican Thomas Massie, who was re-elected with 62.2% of the vote in 2018. ^[1]

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

• Thomas Massie, incumbent U.S. representative ^[15]
• Todd McMurtry, attorney ^[16]

Declined

• Kim Moser, state representative ^[17]

Endorsements

Thomas Massie (R)

US senators

• Rand Paul, U.S. senator from Kentucky ^[18]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Thomas Massie	Todd McMurty	Kim Moser	Undecided
WPA Intelligence [19] [upper-alpha 1]	June 10–11, 2020	411 (LV)	± 4.9%	77%	11%	–	12%
WPA Intelligence [20] [upper-alpha 1]	April 27–28, 2020	407 (LV)	± 4.9%	70%	13%	–	17%
Public Opinion Strategies (R) [21] [upper-alpha 2]	February 4–6, 2020	300 (V)	± 5.66%	71%	3%	–	–
WPA Intelligence [22] [upper-alpha 3]	July 8–9, 2019	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	64%	–	10%	26%

Hypothetical polling

with Generic Republican

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Thomas Massie	Generic Republican	Undecided
WPA Intelligence [22] [upper-alpha 3]	July 8–9, 2019	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	50%	8%	43% [lower-alpha 2]

Primary results

Republican primary results ^[12]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Thomas Massie (incumbent)	68,591	81.0
	Republican	Todd McMurtry	16,092	19.0
Total votes			84,683	100.0

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

• Shannon Fabert, business consultant ^[23]
• Alexandra Owensby, nurse practitioner ^[23]

Primary results

Democratic primary results ^[12]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Alexandra Owensby	41,531	58.4
	Democratic	Shannon Fabert	29,557	41.6
Total votes			71,088	100.0

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report [3]	Safe R	July 2, 2020
Inside Elections [4]	Safe R	June 2, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball [5]	Safe R	July 2, 2020
Politico [6]	Safe R	April 19, 2020
Daily Kos [7]	Safe R	June 3, 2020
RCP [8]	Safe R	June 9, 2020
Niskanen [9]	Safe R	June 7, 2020

Results

Kentucky's 4th congressional district, 2020 ^[10]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Thomas Massie (incumbent)	256,613	67.1
	Democratic	Alexandra Owensby	125,896	32.9
Total votes			382,509	100.0
	Republican hold

District 5

2020 Kentucky's 5th congressional district election

←  2018 2022  →

Nominee Hal Rogers Matthew Best Party Republican Democratic Popular vote 250,914 47,056 Percentage 84.2% 15.8%

County results Rogers:     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%

U.S. Representative before election Hal Rogers Republican Elected U.S. Representative Hal Rogers Republican

See also: Kentucky's 5th congressional district

The 5th district, one of the poorest and most rural in the country, is based in the coalfields of eastern Kentucky. The incumbent is Republican Hal Rogers, who was re-elected with 78.9% of the vote in 2018. ^[1]

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

• Hal Rogers, incumbent U.S. representative ^[24]
• Geraldo Serrano, farmer and candidate for Kentucky's 5th congressional district in 2018 ^[24]

Primary results

Republican primary results ^[12]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Hal Rogers (incumbent)	76,575	91.1
	Republican	Gerardo Serrano	7,436	8.9
Total votes			84,011	100.0

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

• Matthew Best ^[24]

Declined

• Rocky Adkins, minority leader of the Kentucky House of Representatives and candidate for Governor of Kentucky in 2019 ^[25]

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report [3]	Safe R	July 2, 2020
Inside Elections [4]	Safe R	June 2, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball [5]	Safe R	July 2, 2020
Politico [6]	Safe R	April 19, 2020
Daily Kos [7]	Safe R	June 3, 2020
RCP [8]	Safe R	June 9, 2020
Niskanen [9]	Safe R	June 7, 2020

Results

Kentucky's 5th congressional district, 2020 ^[10]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Hal Rogers (incumbent)	250,914	84.2
	Democratic	Matthew Best	47,056	15.8
Total votes			297,970	100.0
	Republican hold

District 6

2020 Kentucky's 6th congressional district election

←  2018 2022  →

Nominee Andy Barr Josh Hicks Party Republican Democratic Popular vote 216,948 155,011 Percentage 57.3% 41.0%

County results Barr:     60–70%     70–80%     80–90% Hicks:     50–60%

U.S. Representative before election Andy Barr Republican Elected U.S. Representative Andy Barr Republican

See also: Kentucky's 6th congressional district

The 6th district is located in central Kentucky, taking in Lexington, Richmond, and Frankfort. The incumbent is Republican Andy Barr, who was re-elected with 51.0% of the vote in 2018. ^[1]

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

• Andy Barr, incumbent U.S. representative ^[26]
• Chuck Eddy, retired salesman ^[27]
• Geoff Young, perennial candidate and assistant director ^[27]

Primary results

Republican primary results ^[12]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Andy Barr (incumbent)	62,706	90.7
	Republican	Chuck Eddy	3,636	5.3
	Republican	Geoff Young	2,765	4.0
Total votes			69,107	100.0

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

• Josh Hicks, attorney and U.S. Marine veteran ^[28]
• Daniel Kemph, business analyst and candidate for Kentucky's 6th congressional district in 2018 ^[27]

Primary results

Democratic primary results ^[12]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Josh Hicks	81,305	72.4
	Democratic	Daniel Kemph	31,064	27.6
Total votes			112,369	100.0

General election

Endorsements

Josh Hicks (D)

• Charles Booker, state representative and former candidate for U.S. Senate in 2020 ^[29]
• VoteVets ^[30]

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report [3]	Likely R	July 2, 2020
Inside Elections [4]	Safe R	June 2, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball [5]	Likely R	July 2, 2020
Politico [6]	Likely R	April 19, 2020
Daily Kos [7]	Likely R	June 3, 2020
RCP [8]	Lean R	October 24, 2020
Niskanen [9]	Lean R	June 7, 2020

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Andy Barr (R)	Josh Hicks (D)	Frank Harris (L)	Undecided
Bluegrass Voters Coalition (D) [31] [upper-alpha 4]	July 13, 2020	700 (LV)	± 5.0%	48%	50%	2%	11%

Results

Kentucky's 6th congressional district, 2020 ^[10]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Andy Barr (incumbent)	216,948	57.3
	Democratic	Josh Hicks	155,011	41.0
	Libertarian	Frank Harris	6,491	1.7
Total votes			378,450	100.0
	Republican hold

See also

• 2020 Kentucky elections

Notes

1. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
2. "Would consider another candidate besides Massie" with 36%; "don't know" with 7%

Partisan clients

1. By the time of this poll's sampling period, the Club for Growth had endorsed Massie's re-election bid
2. Poll sponsored by Massie
3. The Club for Growth is an organization that exclusively endorses Republican candidates
4. This pollster supports candidates it considers politically progressive

References

1. Wasserman, David; Flinn, Ally (November 7, 2018). "2018 House Popular Vote Tracker". Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 8, 2019.
2. Overstreet, Melinda J. (January 10, 2020). "Candidates seek to unseat Riley, Rowland and Givens; 17 file for nine Glasgow council seats". Glasgow Daily Times. Archived from the original on January 27, 2020. Retrieved January 26, 2020.
3. "2020 Senate Race Ratings for April 19, 2019". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2019.
4. "2020 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 3, 2019.
5. "2020 Senate race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Archived from the original on August 22, 2019. Retrieved August 28, 2019.
6. "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
7. "Daily Kos Elections releases initial Senate race ratings for 2020". Daily Kos Elections. Retrieved February 28, 2020.
8. "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
9. "2020 Negative Partisanship and the 2020 Congressional Elections". Niskanen Center. April 28, 2020. Archived from the original on June 21, 2020. Retrieved May 1, 2020.
10. "November 3, 2020 - Official 2020 General Election Results" (PDF). Kentucky Secretary of State . November 20, 2020. pp. 12–19. Retrieved November 21, 2020.
11. Swietek, Wes (January 10, 2020). "Minter, Sheldon unopposed in 2020". Bowling Green Daily News. Retrieved January 26, 2020.
12. "2020 Primary Election - Certified Election Results" (PDF). Commonwealth of Kentucky - State Board of Elections. Retrieved September 5, 2020.
13. Munson, Emilie (January 6, 2020). "Exclusive: Another Republican joins 5th District race" . Retrieved January 9, 2020.
14. "KENTUCKY". Politics 1. Retrieved January 26, 2020.
15. "Thomas Massie". www.facebook.com.
16. Bailey, Phillip M.; Sonka, Joe (January 10, 2020). "Attorney in Covington Catholic case challenges Rep. Thomas Massie in GOP primary". Louisville Courier Journal. Retrieved January 26, 2020.
17. Bailey, Phillip M. (July 3, 2019). "National Republicans may be maneuvering to unseat Kentucky's conservative darling, Massie". The Courier-Journal. Retrieved July 3, 2019.
18. Bailey, Phillip M. (July 4, 2019). "Rand Paul: Thomas Massie has 'my full support' against GOP primary threat". The Courier-Journal. Retrieved August 13, 2019.
19. WPA Intelligence
20. WPA Intelligence
21. Public Opinion Strategies (R)
22. WPA Intelligence
23. Fair, Julia (January 7, 2020). "This is our best shot at changing things.' NKY Democrat nurse practitioner files to run against Republican Rep. Thomas Massie in 2020". Cincinnati Enquirer. Retrieved January 26, 2020.
24. Mills, Jarrod (January 11, 2020). "Several races set as election filing deadline passes". Times-Tribune. Retrieved January 26, 2020.
25. Desrochers, Daniel (December 2, 2019). "Rocky Adkins passes on U.S. Senate bid and takes job in Andy Beshear's administration". Lexington Herald Leader.
26. "Andy Barr". Facebook. December 16, 2019. Retrieved December 25, 2019.
27. Greene, Jonathan (January 14, 2020). "ELECTION 2020: Seven running for city commission". Richmond Register. Retrieved January 26, 2020.
28. Schreiner, Bruce (August 1, 2019). "Marine veteran enters race for 6th District seat in Kentucky". Associated Press News. Retrieved August 1, 2019.
29. Charles Booker [@Booker4KY] (October 21, 2020). "From the hood to the holler, there is a movement growing in KY. Regular folks are rising up to fight back. @joshhicksky is standing for the people of KY's 6th District, and I am proud to stand with him. Let's send a warrior to Washington: https://t.co/Tu53QsIu4N https://t.co/weHGxxkofB" (Tweet). Retrieved January 28, 2021– via Twitter.
30. "VoteVets Endorses Josh Hicks for Congress – Josh Hicks for Congress". Archived from the original on October 26, 2020. Retrieved October 23, 2020.
31. Bluegrass Voters Coalition (D)

External links

• Government Documents Round Table of the American Library Association, "Kentucky", Voting & Elections Toolkits
• "Kentucky: Election Tools, Deadlines, Dates, Rules, and Links", Vote.org , Oakland, CA
• "League of Women Voters of Kentucky". (State affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
• Kentucky at Ballotpedia

Official campaign websites for 1st district candidates

• James Comer (R) for Congress
• James Rhodes (D) for Congress Archived January 27, 2020, at the Wayback Machine

Official campaign websites for 2nd district candidates

• Brett Guthrie (R) for Congress
• Hank Linderman (D) for Congress
• Robert Lee Perry (L) for Congress Archived September 13, 2020, at the Wayback Machine

Official campaign websites for 3rd district candidates

• Rhonda Palazzo (R) for Congress Archived June 12, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
• John Yarmuth (D) for Congress

Official campaign websites for 4th district candidates

• Thomas Massie (R) for Congress
• Alexandra Owensby (D) for Congress Archived November 15, 2019, at the Wayback Machine

Official campaign websites for 5th district candidates

• Hal Rogers (R) for Congress

Official campaign websites for 6th district candidates

• Andy Barr (R) for Congress
• Josh Hicks (D) for Congress Archived June 12, 2020, at the Wayback Machine