2020 United States presidential election in West Virginia

Main article: 2020 United States presidential election

2020 United States presidential election in West Virginia

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Turnout	63.25%
Nominee Donald Trump Joe Biden Party Republican Democratic Home state Florida Delaware Running mate Mike Pence Kamala Harris Electoral vote 5 0 Popular vote 545,382 235,984 Percentage 68.62% 29.69%
County Results Congressional District Results State Senate districts results Precinct Results Trump   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90%   90–100% Biden   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90%   90–100%
President before election Donald Trump Republican Elected President Joe Biden Democratic

The 2020 United States presidential election in West Virginia was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. ^[1] West Virginia voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. West Virginia had five electoral votes in the Electoral College. ^[2]

Trump easily carried West Virginia on Election Day by 38.9 points, down from 42.1 points in 2016. Prior to the election, all 16 news organizations declared West Virginia a safe, or likely, red state. This was the first time ever that an incumbent Republican carried the state while losing re–election.

With 68.62% of its vote, this would prove to be Trump's second strongest state in 2020, only behind Wyoming, and overall would be the largest share of the vote won by any presidential candidate in West Virginia.

Since West Virginia has only become a very safe Republican stronghold in recent elections, Biden is only the third Democrat ever to win the presidency without carrying the state, after Barack Obama and Woodrow Wilson.

Primary elections

The primary elections were originally scheduled for May 12, 2020. In April, they were moved to June 9 due to concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic. ^[3]

Democratic primary

Vice President Joe Biden won the Democratic primary and received all of West Virginia's 28 pledged delegates, as well as all six unpledged PLEO (party leaders and elected officials) delegates, to the 2020 Democratic National Convention. ^[4]

This section is an excerpt from 2020 West Virginia Democratic presidential primary § WVresults.[ edit ]

2020 West Virginia Democratic presidential primary ^[5]

Candidate	Votes	%	Delegates
Joe Biden	122,518	65.35	28
Bernie Sanders (withdrawn)	22,793	12.16
David Lee Rice	15,470	8.25
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn)	5,741	3.06
Tulsi Gabbard (withdrawn)	4,163	2.22
Michael Bloomberg (withdrawn)	3,759	2.01
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn)	3,455	1.84
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn)	3,011	1.61
Andrew Yang (withdrawn)	2,590	1.38
Michael Bennet (withdrawn)	1,865	0.99
Tom Steyer (withdrawn)	1,235	0.66
Deval Patrick (withdrawn)	882	0.47
Total	187,482	100%	28

Republican primary

Incumbent President Donald Trump won the Republican primary and received all of West Virginia's 35 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention. ^[6]

This section is an excerpt from 2020 West Virginia Republican presidential primary § Results.[ edit ]

2020 West Virginia Republican presidential primary

Candidate	Popular vote [7]		Pledged delegates [8]
	#	%
Donald Trump (incumbent)	198,691	94.39	35
Joe Walsh (withdrawn)	3,806	1.81	0
Bill Weld (withdrawn)	3,721	1.77	0
Rocky De La Fuente	1,537	0.73	0
Bob Ely	1,436	0.68	0
Matthew Mattern	1,315	0.62	0
Total	210,506	100%	35

Mountain (Green) primary

West Virginia's Green Party affiliate conducted an online party-run primary, utilizing the state's original primary date of May 12, 2020, as its deadline.

West Virginia Mountain (Green) Party presidential primary ^[9]

Candidate	Percentage	National delegates
Howie Hawkins	78.3%	5
David Rolde	8.7%	0
Jesse Ventura (write-in)	8.7%	0
Dario Hunter	4.3%	0
Total	100.00%	5

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report [10]	Safe R	September 10, 2020
Inside Elections [11]	Safe R	September 4, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball [12]	Safe R	July 14, 2020
Politico [13]	Safe R	September 8, 2020
RCP [14]	Safe R	August 3, 2020
Niskanen [15]	Safe R	July 26, 2020
CNN [16]	Safe R	August 3, 2020
The Economist [17]	Safe R	September 2, 2020
CBS News [18]	Likely R	August 16, 2020
270towin [19]	Safe R	August 2, 2020
ABC News [20]	Safe R	July 31, 2020
NPR [21]	Likely R	August 3, 2020
NBC News [22]	Safe R	August 6, 2020
538 [23]	Safe R	September 9, 2020

Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other/ undecided [a]	Margin
270 to Win [24]	October 13–23, 2020	November 3, 2020	38.5%	55.5%	6.0%	Trump +17.0
FiveThirtyEight [25]	until November 2, 2020	November 3, 2020	33.5%	62.1%	4.4%	Trump +28.6
Average			36.0%	58.8%	5.2%	Trump +22.8

Polls

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [b]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Jo Jorgensen Libertarian	Howie Hawkins Mountain	Other	Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios [26]	Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020	816 (LV)	± 5%	67% [c]	32%	–	–	–	–
SurveyMonkey/Axios [26]	Oct 1–28, 2020	1,359 (LV)	–	66%	32%	–	–	–	–
Triton Polling and Research/WMOV [27]	Oct 19–21, 2020	544 (LV)	± 4.2%	58%	38%	–	–	–	4%
Research America Inc./West Virginia Metro News [28]	Oct 6–9, 2020	450 (LV)	± 4.6%	53%	39%	4%	1%	–	3%
Triton Polling & Research/WMOV [29]	Sep 29–30, 2020 [d]	525 (RV)	± 4.3%	56%	38%	–	–	–	5%
SurveyMonkey/Axios [26]	Sep 1–30, 2020	516 (LV)	–	62%	36%	–	–	–	2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios [26]	Aug 1–31, 2020	496 (LV)	–	65%	32%	–	–	–	2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios [26]	Jul 1–31, 2020	494 (LV)	–	67%	32%	–	–	–	1%
SurveyMonkey/Axios [26]	Jun 8–30, 2020	264 (LV)	–	72%	27%	–	–	–	1%
WPA Intelligence/Club for Growth [30] [A]	Jan 7–9, 2020	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	66%	31%	–	–	–	3%

Former candidates

Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size [b] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Bernie Sanders (D) Undecided WPA Intelligence/Club for Growth [30] [A] Jan 7–9, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4 % 66% 29% 5% Tulchin Research [31] Oct 6–13, 2017 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 46% 48% 6% Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size [b] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Elizabeth Warren (D) Undecided Zogby Analytics [32] Aug 17–23, 2017 401 (LV) ± 4.9% 43% 40% 17%

Results

Trump won West Virginia, carrying the popular vote in each of the state's 55 counties. ^[33]

2020 United States presidential election in West Virginia ^{[34] [35]}

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Donald Trump Mike Pence	545,382	68.62	+0.10%
	Democratic	Joe Biden Kamala Harris	235,984	29.69	+3.27%
	Libertarian	Jo Jorgensen Spike Cohen	10,687	1.34	−1.88%
	Mountain	Howie Hawkins Angela Walker	2,599	0.33	−0.80%
	Socialism and Liberation	Gloria La Riva Sunil Freeman (write-in)	9	<0.01	N/A
	Write-in		70	<0.01	+
Total votes			794,731	100.0	+

By congressional district

Trump won all three congressional districts. ^[36]

District	Trump	Biden	Representative
1st	68%	30.3%	David McKinley
2nd	65.4%	32.8%	Alex Mooney
3rd	73.1%	25.5%	Carol Miller

By county

County	Donald Trump Republican		Joe Biden Democratic		Various candidates Other parties		Margin		Total
	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%
Barbour	5,116	76.62%	1,457	21.82%	104	1.56%	3,659	54.80%	6,677
Berkeley	33,279	64.57%	17,186	33.35%	1,074	2.08%	16,093	31.22%	51,539
Boone	6,816	75.62%	2,041	22.65%	156	1.73%	4,775	52.97%	9,013
Braxton	4,120	72.74%	1,457	25.72%	87	1.54%	2,663	47.02%	5,664
Brooke	7,545	70.81%	2,947	27.66%	164	1.53%	4,598	43.15%	10,656
Cabell	21,721	58.14%	14,994	40.13%	645	1.73%	6,727	18.01%	37,360
Calhoun	2,364	79.57%	568	19.12%	39	1.31%	1,796	60.45%	2,971
Clay	2,679	79.61%	641	19.05%	45	1.34%	2,038	60.56%	3,365
Doddridge	2,619	84.46%	435	14.03%	47	1.51%	2,184	70.43%	3,101
Fayette	11,580	68.64%	5,063	30.01%	227	1.35%	6,517	38.63%	16,870
Gilmer	2,012	75.58%	599	22.50%	51	1.92%	1,413	53.08%	2,662
Grant	4,871	88.40%	607	11.02%	32	0.58%	4,264	77.38%	5,510
Greenbrier	10,925	68.93%	4,655	29.37%	270	1.70%	6,270	39.56%	15,850
Hampshire	8,033	79.65%	1,939	19.22%	114	1.13%	6,094	60.43%	10,086
Hancock	9,806	71.05%	3,790	27.46%	206	1.49%	6,016	43.59%	13,802
Hardy	4,859	76.73%	1,381	21.81%	93	1.46%	3,478	54.92%	6,333
Harrison	20,683	67.89%	9,215	30.25%	567	1.86%	11,468	37.64%	30,465
Jackson	10,093	74.71%	3,207	23.74%	209	1.55%	6,886	50.97%	13,509
Jefferson	15,033	54.26%	12,127	43.77%	545	1.97%	2,906	10.49%	27,705
Kanawha	46,398	56.41%	34,344	41.76%	1,508	1.83%	12,054	14.65%	82,250
Lewis	5,782	77.52%	1,538	20.62%	139	1.86%	4,244	56.90%	7,459
Lincoln	6,012	76.77%	1,711	21.85%	108	1.38%	4,301	54.92%	7,831
Logan	10,534	80.87%	2,333	17.91%	159	1.22%	8,201	62.96%	13,026
Marion	16,300	63.18%	8,901	34.50%	598	2.32%	7,399	28.68%	25,799
Marshall	10,435	74.11%	3,455	24.54%	190	1.35%	6,980	49.57%	14,080
Mason	8,491	75.77%	2,526	22.54%	189	1.69%	5,965	53.23%	11,206
McDowell	5,148	78.87%	1,333	20.42%	46	0.71%	3,815	58.45%	6,527
Mercer	19,237	76.53%	5,556	22.10%	342	1.37%	13,681	54.43%	25,135
Mineral	10,040	77.97%	2,660	20.66%	176	1.37%	7,380	57.31%	12,876
Mingo	8,544	85.22%	1,397	13.93%	85	0.85%	7,147	71.29%	10,026
Monongalia	20,803	49.44%	20,282	48.20%	994	2.36%	521	1.24%	42,079
Monroe	5,068	78.09%	1,345	20.72%	77	1.19%	3,723	57.37%	6,490
Morgan	6,537	75.17%	1,998	22.98%	161	1.85%	4,539	52.19%	8,696
Nicholas	8,279	77.86%	2,226	20.93%	128	1.21%	6,053	56.93%	10,633
Ohio	12,354	62.08%	7,223	36.30%	323	1.62%	5,131	25.78%	19,900
Pendleton	2,782	76.03%	820	22.41%	57	1.56%	1,962	53.62%	3,659
Pleasants	2,742	78.54%	699	20.02%	50	1.44%	2,043	58.52%	3,491
Pocahontas	2,895	72.21%	1,047	26.12%	67	1.57%	1,848	46.09%	4,009
Preston	11,190	76.79%	3,163	21.70%	220	1.51%	8,027	55.09%	14,573
Putnam	20,034	70.29%	7,878	27.64%	589	2.07%	12,156	42.65%	28,501
Raleigh	24,673	74.51%	7,982	24.10%	459	1.39%	16,691	50.41%	33,114
Randolph	8,673	71.09%	3,362	27.56%	165	1.35%	5,311	43.53%	12,200
Ritchie	3,649	85.20%	586	13.68%	48	1.12%	3,063	71.52%	4,283
Roane	4,213	73.10%	1,455	25.25%	95	1.65%	2,758	47.85%	5,763
Summers	4,074	72.95%	1,448	25.93%	63	1.12%	2,626	47.02%	5,585
Taylor	5,477	74.18%	1,796	24.33%	110	1.49%	3,681	49.85%	7,383
Tucker	2,841	73.89%	938	24.40%	66	1.71%	1,903	49.49%	3,845
Tyler	3,226	82.23%	631	16.08%	66	1.69%	2,595	66.15%	3,923
Upshur	7,771	76.01%	2,256	22.07%	196	1.92%	5,515	53.94%	10,223
Wayne	12,585	74.26%	4,088	24.12%	274	1.62%	8,497	50.14%	16,947
Webster	2,759	81.10%	610	17.93%	33	0.97%	2,149	63.17%	3,402
Wetzel	4,993	74.87%	1,539	23.08%	137	2.05%	3,454	51.79%	6,669
Wirt	2,134	80.44%	466	17.57%	53	1.99%	1,668	62.87%	2,653
Wood	27,202	70.17%	10,926	28.19%	637	1.64%	16,276	41.98%	38,765
Wyoming	7,353	85.58%	1,157	13.47%	82	0.95%	6,196	72.11%	8,592
Totals	545,382	68.62%	235,984	29.69%	13,365	1.69%	309,398	38.93%	794,731

Swing by county

Legend

•   Democratic — +7.5-10%
•   Democratic — +5-7.5%
•   Democratic — +2.5-5%
•   Democratic — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +2.5-5%
•   Republican — +5-7.5%
•   Republican — +7.5-10%
•   Republican — +10-12.5%

Trend relative to the state by county

Legend

•   Democratic — +7.5-10%
•   Democratic — +5-7.5%
•   Democratic — +2.5-5%
•   Democratic — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +2.5-5%
•   Republican — +5-7.5%
•   Republican — +7.5-10%
•   Republican — +10-12.5%

Analysis

West Virginia, which was solidly Democratic territory for much of the 20th century, has consistently voted Republican in presidential elections since 2000. Republicans started making gains in the state in the 21st century due to championing of environmentalism by Democrats such as 2000 Democratic nominee Al Gore, which challenged entrenched coal-mining interests. ^{[37] [38]}

West Virginia gave Trump his second-highest vote share in 2020, swapping places with Wyoming, after having been Trump's strongest state by vote share in 2016. ^[39] This is the best Republican performance in state history, surpassing the record set in the previous election. West Virginia was one of two states where Trump won every county, the other being Oklahoma. ^[40] The closest county in the state, and the only one Trump won without a majority of the vote, was Monongalia County, home to Morgantown and the main campus of West Virginia University. Biden's losing margin of 1.24% in Monongalia marked the closest a Democrat has come to winning any county in West Virginia since 2008. This was the third consecutive presidential election where every county within the state voted Republican, but the first since 1996 in which the Democratic vote share increased relative to the preceding election. Biden received over 40% of the vote in only 4 counties - Monongalia; Kanawha County, home to the state capital and largest city Charleston; Cabell County, home to Marshall University and to the state's second largest city Huntington; and Jefferson County, home to Washington, D.C., exurbs. ^[33]

Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Trump's strength in West Virginia came from voters who prioritized protecting and expanding production of fossil fuels, such as coal, who comprised 58% of voters and broke for Trump by 90%. ^[41] Trump's strongest region was southern West Virginia. This coal-mining, union-heavy region was once among the most heavily Democratic places in the nation; Logan County, for example, broke 72% of its ballots for Bill Clinton in 1996, 61% for Al Gore in 2000, 52% for John Kerry in 2004, and even 51% for George McGovern in his only statewide county win in 1972; but by 2008, John McCain flipped it to the Republican column with 54% of the vote, which increased to 68% for Mitt Romney in 2012 and by 2016 and 2020, it had voted 79.6% and 80.9% for Trump, respectively. ^[36]

During the same election cycle, incumbent Republican Senator Shelley Moore Capito was re-elected by a margin slightly larger than Trump's, beating out Democrat Paula Jean Swearengin by 43.3 points. ^[42]

Notes

1. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
2. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
3. Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
4. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight

Partisan clients

1. The Club for Growth is a PAC supporting the Donald Trump 2020 presidential campaign.

See also

• United States presidential elections in West Virginia
• 2020 United States presidential election
• 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries
• 2020 Green Party presidential primaries
• 2020 Libertarian Party presidential primaries
• 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries
• 2020 United States elections
• 2020 United States Senate election in West Virginia
• 2020 United States House of Representatives elections in West Virginia

References

1. Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?" . The Independent . Archived from the original on August 2, 2018. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
2. "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration . Retrieved January 3, 2019.
3. "Gov. Jim Justice announces WV Primary Election will move to June 9, schools will remain closed through April 30". WBOY-TV. April 1, 2020.
4. "West Virginia Democratic Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved November 3, 2020.
5. "Results – Democratic Contests". results.enr.clarityelections.com/. West Virginia Secretary of State. Retrieved June 10, 2020.
6. "West Virginia Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved June 10, 2020.
7. "Election Night Reporting". results.enr.clarityelections.com. Retrieved July 1, 2020.
8. "West Virginia Republican Delegation 2020". www.thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved July 1, 2020.
9. "Results - 2020 Presidential Primary". Mountain Party. May 12, 2020. Retrieved May 12, 2020.
10. "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
11. "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
12. "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
13. "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
14. "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
15. 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine , Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
16. David Chalian; Terence Burlij (June 11, 2020). "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
17. "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
18. "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
19. "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
20. "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
21. Montanaro, Domenico (August 3, 2020). "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
22. "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. August 6, 2020. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
23. "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. August 12, 2020. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
24. "West Virginia 2020 Presidential Election Polls: Biden vs. Trump - 270toWin". 270toWin.com.
25. Best, Ryan; Bycoffe, Aaron; King, Ritchie; Mehta, Dhrumil; Wiederkehr, Anna (June 28, 2018). "West Virginia : President: general election Polls". FiveThirtyEight.
26. "Candidate preference". www.tableau.com.
27. "Triton Polling and Research/WMOV" (PDF).
28. McElhinny, Brad (October 13, 2020). "West Virginians favor Trump over Biden for president, latest poll shows".
29. "Poll shows incumbents leading races for surveyed WV voters". October 6, 2020.
30. "WPA Intelligence/Club for Growth" (PDF).
31. "Tulchin Research" (PDF).
32. "Zogby Analytics - The Zogby Poll: Trump approval/Trump Vs. Warren in 11 states". zogbyanalytics.com.
33. "West Virginia Election Results 2020". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. Retrieved November 10, 2020.
34. "West Virginia 2020 General Election". Green Papers. Retrieved September 17, 2020.
35. Certificate of Ascertainment, West Virginia Secretary of State, December 9, 2020.
36. "2020 Presidential General Election Results - West Virginia".
37. "Deep in Virginia's craggy coal country, they saw Trump as their only hope". Washington Post. Retrieved November 12, 2016.
38. Thomas, Zoe (November 2, 2016). "Coal country West Virginia feels forgotten by politics". BBC News. Retrieved November 12, 2016.
39. "West Virginia Election Results 2016". The New York Times . Retrieved November 12, 2016.
40. "Oklahoma election results" . Retrieved November 27, 2020.
41. "West Virginia Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN   0362-4331 . Retrieved November 13, 2020.
42. "November 3, 2020 General Election - Official Results". West Virginia State - Clarity Elections. Retrieved November 30, 2020.

External links

• Government Documents Round Table of the American Library Association, "West Virginia", Voting & Elections Toolkits
• "West Virginia: Election Tools, Deadlines, Dates, Rules, and Links", Vote.org , Oakland, CA
• "League of Women Voters of West Virginia". (state affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
• West Virginia at Ballotpedia