2020 United States Senate election in Oregon

2020 United States Senate election in Oregon

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Nominee Jeff Merkley Jo Rae Perkins Party Democratic Republican Popular vote 1,321,047 912,814 Percentage 56.91% 39.32%

County results Congressional district results Precinct results Merkley:     40-50%     50-60%     60-70%     70-80%     80–90%     >90% Perkins:     40-50%     50-60%     60-70%     70-80%     80–90%     >90% Tie:     40–50%     50%     No data

U.S. senator before election Jeff Merkley Democratic Elected U.S. Senator Jeff Merkley Democratic

The 2020 United States Senate election in Oregon was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Oregon, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic senator Jeff Merkley won reelection to a third term in office. Although this Senate seat was largely expected to be one of the safest for the Democrats, the race received national attention due to the Republican nominee Jo Rae Perkins's promotion of the unfounded QAnon conspiracy theory. Furthermore, Perkins had flipped five counties that Merkley had won in 2014 (though only by pluralities in the cases of Jackson, Polk and Yamhill). ^[1]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Jeff Merkley, incumbent U.S. senator ^[2] (also nominated by the Oregon Independent Party and the Working Families Party) ^[3]

Withdrawn

• Michael David, activist and ethnographer ^[4]

Endorsements

Jeff Merkley

Organizations

• American Federation of Teachers - Oregon ^[5]
• Council for a Livable World ^[6]
• Democracy for America ^[7]
• Human Rights Campaign ^[8]
• Humane Society of the United States Legislative Fund ^[9]
• League of Conservation Voters ^[10]
• NARAL Pro-Choice America ^[11]
• Oregon Education Association ^[12]
• Oregon League of Conservation Voters ^[13]
• SEIU Oregon State Council ^[14]
• Sierra Club ^[15]

Results

Democratic primary results ^[16]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Jeff Merkley (incumbent)	564,878	98.71%
	Democratic	Write-in	7,386	1.29%
Total votes			572,264	100.0%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Jo Rae Perkins, former chairwoman of the Linn County Republican Party ^{[17] [18]}

Eliminated in primary

• Paul Romero, refrigeration repair technician and candidate for Oregon's 2nd congressional district in 2016 and 2018 ^[19]
• Robert Schwartz, dance teacher ^[20]
• John Verbeek, financial executive and nominee for Oregon's 1st congressional district in 2018 ^[21]

Withdrawn

• Matthew Kulow ^{[22] [23]}

Declined

• Knute Buehler, former state representative for District 54, nominee for Oregon secretary of state in 2012 and Governor of Oregon in 2018 (running for Oregon's 2nd congressional district) ^[24]

Endorsements

Jo Rae Perkins

State representatives

• Mike Nearman, District 23 ^[25]

Individuals

• Jack Esp, 2020 candidate for Oregon's 21st House district ^[25]
• Alek Skarlatos, Oregon Army National Guard veteran and 2020 candidate for Oregon's 4th congressional district ^[25]

Organizations

• Oregon Right to Life PAC ^[25]

Results

Results by county:

  Rae Perkins—50–60%

  Rae Perkins—40–50%

Republican primary results ^[16]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Jo Rae Perkins	178,004	49.23%
	Republican	Paul J. Romero, Jr.	109,783	30.36%
	Republican	Robert Schwartz	40,196	11.12%
	Republican	John Verbeek	29,382	8.13%
	Republican	Write-in	4,250	1.17%
Total votes			361,615	100.0%

Other candidates

Pacific Green Party

Nominee

• Ibrahim Taher, philosopher, anti-war activist, current member state coordinating committee in the Pacific Green Party ^[26] (also nominated by the Oregon Progressive Party) ^[3]

Endorsements

Ibra Taher

Individuals

• Dario Hunter, lawyer and 2020 candidate for president of the United States ^[27]
• Cynthia McKinney, former United States Congress member and 2008 Green candidate for president of the United States ^[27]
• David Rolde, 2020 Green candidate for president of the United States ^[27]
• Cindy Sheehan, prominent anti-war activist ^[27]

Organizations

• Oregon Progressive Party ^[27]

Libertarian Party

Nominee

• Gary Dye, former refinery operator and engineer ^{[28] [29] [3]}

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report [30]	Solid D	October 29, 2020
Inside Elections [31]	Safe D	October 28, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball [32]	Safe D	November 2, 2020
Daily Kos [33]	Safe D	October 30, 2020
Politico [34]	Safe D	November 2, 2020
RCP [35]	Safe D	October 23, 2020
DDHQ [36]	Safe D	November 3, 2020
538 [37]	Safe D	November 2, 2020
Economist [38]	Safe D	November 2, 2020

Additional general election endorsements

Jeff Merkley (D)

Organizations

• 350.org ^[39]
• Blue America ^[40]
• Center for Biological Diversity ^[41]
• Demand Universal Healthcare ^[42]
• End Citizens United ^[43]
• Everytown for Gun Safety ^[44]
• J Street PAC ^[45]
• Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs ^[46]
• MoveOn ^[47]
• National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare ^[48]
• National Organization for Women ^[49]
• Natural Resources Defense Council Action Fund ^[50]
• Peace Action ^[51]
• Planned Parenthood ^[52]
• Planned Parenthood Advocates of Oregon ^[53]
• Population Connection ^[54]

Unions

• National Education Association ^[55]
• Oregon AFL-CIO ^[56]
• United Auto Workers ^[57]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [a]	Margin of error	Jeff Merkley (D)	Jo Rae Perkins (R)	Other	Undecided
Civiqs/Daily Kos [58]	September 26–29, 2020	944 (LV)	± 3.5%	55%	35%	5% [b]	5%

Results

2020 United States Senate election in Oregon ^[59]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Jeff Merkley (incumbent)	1,321,047	56.91%	+1.18%
	Republican	Jo Rae Perkins	912,814	39.32%	+2.45%
	Libertarian	Gary Dye	42,747	1.84%	−1.23%
	Pacific Green	Ibrahim Taher	42,239	1.82%	−0.40%
	Write-in		2,402	0.11%	-0.34%
Total votes			2,321,249	100.0%
	Democratic hold

By county

By county

County Jeff Merkley Democratic Jo Rae Perkins Republican Gary Dye Libertarian Ibrahim Taher Pacific Green Write-in Margin Total votes # % # % # % # % # % # % Baker 2,633 27.01 6,863 70.39 176 1.81 71 0.73 7 0.07 -4,230 -43.38 9,750 Benton 35,021 67.29 14,811 28.46 1,041 2.00 1,118 2.15 52 0.10 20,210 38.83 52,043 Clackamas 134,813 53.79 106,838 42.63 4,767 1.90 3,995 1.59 227 0.09 27,975 11.16 250,640 Clatsop 13,052 55.48 9,623 40.91 438 1.86 391 1.66 20 0.09 3,429 14.58 23,524 Columbia 14,375 45.44 15,948 50.41 767 2.42 507 1.60 40 0.13 -1,573 -4.97 31,637 Coos 14,885 41.23 20,051 55.53 676 1.87 470 1.30 24 0.07 -5,166 -14.31 36,106 Crook 4,133 27.29 10,628 70.17 250 1.65 118 0.78 17 0.11 -6,495 -42.88 15,146 Curry 6,170 42.24 7,993 54.72 268 1.83 170 1.16 7 0.05 -1,823 -12.48 14,608 Deschutes 65,264 53.19 53,285 43.43 2,244 1.83 1,769 1.44 128 0.10 11,979 9.76 122,690 Douglas 20,707 33.03 40,036 63.87 1,217 1.94 660 1.05 65 0.10 -19,329 -30.84 62,685 Gilliam 373 31.96 765 65.55 18 1.54 8 0.69 3 0.26 -392 -33.59 1,167 Grant 1,119 24.80 3,273 72.52 89 1.97 27 0.60 5 0.11 -2,154 -47.73 4,513 Harney 1,055 24.10 3,213 73.41 65 1.49 38 0.87 6 0.14 -2,158 -49.30 4,377 Hood River 8,619 66.89 3,821 29.65 229 1.78 209 1.62 7 0.05 4,798 37.24 12,885 Jackson 59,093 47.54 61,010 49.08 2,217 1.78 1,901 1.53 82 0.07 -1,917 -1.54 124,303 Jefferson 4,591 39.07 6,810 57.95 206 1.75 130 1.11 15 0.13 -2,219 -18.88 11,752 Josephine 18,697 37.23 29,685 59.10 986 1.96 789 1.57 68 0.14 -10,988 -21.88 50,225 Klamath 11,237 31.23 23,579 65.53 702 1.95 435 1.21 29 0.08 -12,342 -34.30 35,982 Lake 908 21.29 3,261 76.46 63 1.48 29 0.68 4 0.09 -2,353 -55.17 4,265 Lane 133,033 61.26 75,550 34.79 3,842 1.77 4,497 2.07 236 0.11 57,483 26.47 217,158 Lincoln 17,485 57.88 11,628 38.49 546 1.81 524 1.73 25 0.08 5,857 19.39 30,208 Linn 27,048 38.29 40,801 57.76 1,618 2.29 1,079 1.53 98 0.14 -13,753 -19.47 70,644 Malheur 3,353 28.92 7,882 67.97 230 1.98 124 1.07 7 0.06 -4,529 -39.06 11,596 Marion 79,990 49.37 75,908 46.85 3,221 1.99 2,683 1.66 212 0.13 4,082 2.52 162,014 Morrow 1,558 30.94 3,324 66.02 109 2.16 41 0.81 3 0.06 -1,766 -35.07 5,035 Multnomah 356,870 78.53 78,673 17.31 6,775 1.49 11,669 2.57 431 0.09 278,197 61.22 454,418 Polk 22,893 48.16 22,931 48.24 928 1.95 725 1.53 54 0.11 -38 -0.08 47,531 Sherman 302 25.61 845 71.67 26 2.21 6 0.51 0 0.00 -543 -46.06 1,179 Tillamook 8,326 50.19 7,768 46.83 270 1.63 213 1.28 12 0.07 558 3.36 16,589 Umatilla 11,253 34.95 19,876 61.74 696 2.16 339 1.05 30 0.09 -8,623 -26.78 32,194 Union 4,545 31.12 9,674 66.24 230 1.57 145 0.99 11 0.08 -5,129 -35.12 14,605 Wallowa 1,702 33.56 3,267 64.43 65 1.28 37 0.73 0 0.00 -1,565 -30.86 5,071 Wasco 6,716 48.67 6,572 47.63 290 2.10 208 1.51 13 0.09 144 1.04 13,799 Washington 202,073 64.64 97,799 31.28 6,131 1.96 6,206 1.99 409 0.13 104,274 33.36 312,618 Wheeler 262 28.11 646 69.31 16 1.72 8 0.86 0 0.00 -384 -41.20 932 Yamhill 26,893 46.88 28,177 49.12 1,335 2.33 900 1.57 55 0.10 -1,284 -2.24 57,360 Totals 1,321,047 56.91 912,814 39.32 42,747 1.84 42,239 1.82 2,402 0.10 408,233 17.59 2,321,249 Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican Columbia (largest municipality: St. Helens) Coos (largest municipality: Coos Bay) Jackson (largest municipality: Medford) Polk (largest municipality: West Salem) Yamhill (largest municipality: McMinnville)

By congressional district

Merkley won four of five congressional districts. ^[60]

District	Merkley	Perkins	Representative
1st	62%	34%	Suzanne Bonamici
2nd	43%	53%	Cliff Bentz
3rd	73%	22%	Earl Blumenauer
4th	52%	44%	Peter DeFazio
5th	53%	43%	Kurt Schrader

Notes

General

1. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
2. Dye (L) and Taher (G) with 2%; "Someone else" with 1%

References

1. Baker, Mike (May 20, 2020). "G.O.P. Voters Back QAnon Conspiracy Promoter for U.S. Senate". The New York Times. Retrieved June 14, 2020.
2. Sullivan, Sean (March 5, 2019). "Sen. Jeff Merkley opts out of Democratic presidential contest and will run for reelection to Oregon seat". The Washington Post. Retrieved March 5, 2019.
3. "Oregon 2020 Senate Candidate List". secure.sos.state.or.us. Oregon Secretary of State. July 17, 2020. Retrieved August 26, 2020.
4. "Candidate Information: Michael David". Oregon Secretary of State: Elections Division. February 28, 2020. Retrieved March 10, 2020.
5. "2020 State of Oregon Primary Candidate Recommendations". Stateweb. February 28, 2020.
6. "Senate Candidates - Council for a Livable World". Council for a Livable World.
7. "Our Candidates". Democracy for America. Retrieved May 1, 2020.
8. Acosta, Lucas (March 2, 2020). "HRC Endorses Sen. Jeff Merkley for Reelection". Human Rights Campaign. Archived from the original on August 3, 2020. Retrieved May 4, 2020.
9. Society, Humane. "2020 Endorsements". Humane Society Legislative Fund.
10. Burke, Holly (June 27, 2019). "LCV Action Fund Endorses Senator Jeff Merkley for Re-Election". League of Conservation Voters .
11. "NARAL Pro-Choice America Endorses Senator Jeff Merkley (D-OR) for Re-election". NARAL Pro-Choice America. April 24, 2019.
12. "OEA-PAC | Oregon Education Association". oregoned.org. Retrieved August 18, 2024.
13. "2020 Primary Endorsements". OLCV.
14. "2020 Election – SEIU Oregon State Council". Archived from the original on November 1, 2020. Retrieved May 9, 2020.
15. "Sierra Club #ClimateVoter Guide: Endorsements". Sierra Club.
16. "May 19, 2020, Primary Election Abstract of Votes" (PDF). Oregon Secretary of State. May 19, 2020. Retrieved August 26, 2020.
17. "Candidate Information: Jo Rae Perkins". Oregon Secretary of State: Elections Division. January 17, 2020. Retrieved January 20, 2020.
18. "Believer in QAnon conspiracy theory wins Republican Senate nomination in Oregon". The Washington Post. May 20, 2020. Retrieved May 20, 2020. "Where we go one, we go all," Perkins said in the video, reciting a QAnon slogan. "I stand with President Trump. I stand with Q and the team. Thank you Anons, and thank you patriots. And together, we can save our republic."
19. Cegavske, Carisa (September 20, 2019). "Roseburg Republican seeks senate seat held by Democrat Jeff Merkley". The News-Review. Retrieved January 5, 2020.
20. "Oregon Secretary Of State". secure.sos.state.or.us. Retrieved October 29, 2019.
21. "Candidate Information: John Verbeek". Oregon Secretary of State: Elections Division. March 6, 2020. Retrieved March 9, 2020.
22. "FILING FEC-1380922". FEC. February 7, 2020. Retrieved May 15, 2020.
23. "44 changes to the candidate list". The Green Papers. March 12, 2020. Archived from the original on June 4, 2020. Retrieved May 15, 2020.
24. Warner, Gary (December 29, 2018). "After losing race for governor, Buehler plans his future". The Bulletin. Retrieved August 15, 2019.
25. "Endorsements". Perkins for Senate. Archived from the original on June 25, 2020. Retrieved April 14, 2020.
26. "Our Coordinating Committee". Pacific Green Party Standard. Retrieved June 28, 2020.
27. "Endorsements". Ibrahim Taher. June 24, 2020.
28. "Gary Dye". Ballotpedia. Retrieved August 25, 2020.
29. "Official website of the Libertarian Party of Oregon". Libertarian Party of Oregon. August 14, 2020. Archived from the original on August 17, 2020. Retrieved August 25, 2020.
30. "2020 Senate Race Ratings for October 29, 2020". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 11, 2021.
31. "2020 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved March 11, 2021.
32. "2020 Senate race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved March 12, 2021.
33. "2020 Senate Race Ratings". Daily Kos Elections. Retrieved March 13, 2021.
34. "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
35. "Battle for the Senate 2020". RCP. October 23, 2020.
36. "2020 Senate Elections Model". Decision Desk HQ. September 2, 2020. Retrieved September 2, 2020.
37. Silver, Nate (September 18, 2020). "Forecasting the race for the Senate". FiveThirtyEight . Retrieved September 18, 2020.
38. "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. November 2, 2020. Retrieved March 13, 2021.
39. "350 Action Endorses Kara Eastman (NE-02) and Jeff Merkley for Congress in 2020". 350action.org. December 17, 2019.
40. Klein, Howie (May 12, 2019). "Blue America's Mothers' Day Senate Endorsement: Jeff Merkley". Blue America.
41. "2020 Endorsements" . Retrieved August 18, 2024.
42. "DUH/PEP website". duh4all.org. Archived from the original on August 9, 2020. Retrieved May 9, 2020.
43. Muller, Tiffany (April 25, 2019). "End Citizens United Endorses Senator Jeff Merkley for Re-election". End Citizens United.
44. "Everytown for Gun Safety Action Fund Endorses Senator Jeff Merkley For U.S. Senate". Everytown. June 30, 2020.
45. "JStreetPAC Candidates". JStreetPAC. Archived from the original on May 2, 2018. Retrieved September 23, 2020.
46. "Meet the 2020 Candidates". Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs.^{[ permanent dead link ‍]}
47. "Our Candidates". MoveOn.org.
48. "Candidates We Endorse and Support". NCPSSM.
49. "2020 Federal Endorsements - NOW PAC". nowpac.org.
50. "Six Environmental Champions Win NRDC Action Fund Endorsements". www.nrdcactionfund.org. May 18, 2020.
51. "PeaceVoter 2020 Endorsements". Peace Action. Archived from the original on March 20, 2020. Retrieved May 9, 2020.
52. "2020 Endorsements". plannedparenthoodaction.org. Archived from the original on April 12, 2020. Retrieved May 8, 2020.
53. "Endorsements". ppaoregon.org.
54. "2020 Endorsements". Population Connection. Archived from the original on September 18, 2020. Retrieved May 9, 2020.
55. "U.S. Senate - Education Votes". educationvotes.nea.org.
56. "2020 OREGON AFL-CIO ENDORSEMENTS". Oregon AFL-CIO. March 6, 2020.
57. "Oregon – Official UAW Endorsements". uawendorsements.org. United Automobile Workers.
58. Civiqs/Daily Kos
59. "November 3, 2020, General Election Abstract of Votes" (PDF). Oregon Secretary of State. Retrieved December 3, 2020.
60. "DRA 2020". Daves Redistricting. Retrieved August 18, 2024.

External links

• Government Documents Round Table of the American Library Association, "Oregon", Voting & Elections Toolkits
• "Oregon: Election Tools, Deadlines, Dates, Rules, and Links", Vote.org , Oakland, CA
• "League of Women Voters of Oregon". (state affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
• Oregon at Ballotpedia

Official campaign websites

• Jeff Merkley (D) for Senate
• Jo Rae Perkins (R) for Senate
• Ibrahim Taher (G) for Senate