2020 United States presidential election in North Dakota

Main article: 2020 United States presidential election

2020 United States presidential election in North Dakota

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Turnout	62.65% [1]
Nominee Donald J. Trump Joe Biden Party Republican Democratic–NPL Home state Florida Delaware Running mate Michael R. Pence Kamala Harris Electoral vote 3 0 Popular vote 235,595 114,902 Percentage 65.11% 31.76%
County results Precinct results Trump   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90%   90–100% Biden   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90%   90–100%
President before election Donald J. Trump Republican Elected President Joe Biden Democratic-NPL

The 2020 United States presidential election in North Dakota was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. ^[2] North Dakota voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican nominee, incumbent President Donald J. Trump from Florida, and running mate Vice President Michael R. Pence from Indiana against Democratic nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden from Delaware, and his running mate Senator Kamala Harris of California. North Dakota has three electoral votes in the Electoral College. ^[3]

Trump easily won North Dakota 65.1% to 31.8%, a margin of 33.35%, about three points down from his 36-point victory in 2016. Joe Biden won the same two counties Walter Mondale, Al Gore and Hillary Clinton won in 1984, 2000 and 2016 respectively: the majority-Native American counties of Rolette and Sioux, both of which have long been Democratic strongholds. However, Biden only came 2.7 points short of winning Cass County, which holds the state's largest city of Fargo, as compared to Clinton's 10.5-point loss in 2016.

Biden became the first Democrat to win the presidency without winning Sargent County since Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1944 and the first without Benson, Ransom, or Steele Counties since John F. Kennedy in 1960. Despite Biden's modest improvement over Hillary Clinton four years earlier, this remains the second-worst Democratic performance in the state since 1980. Trump's vote share was also the largest for any candidate in the state since 1952.

Caucuses

Democratic caucuses

Further information: 2020 North Dakota Democratic presidential caucuses

The North Dakota Democratic–NPL Party held a firehouse caucus on March 10, 2020.

This section is an excerpt from 2020 North Dakota Democratic presidential caucuses § NDresults.[ edit ]

All of the withdrawn candidates had withdrawn from the race while mail-in voting had already begun.

2020 North Dakota Democratic presidential caucuses ^[4]

Candidate	Votes	%	Delegates
Bernie Sanders	7,682	52.81	8
Joe Biden	5,742	39.47	6
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn)	366	2.52
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn)	223	1.53
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn)	164	1.13
Michael Bloomberg (withdrawn)	113	0.78
Tulsi Gabbard	89	0.61
Andrew Yang (withdrawn)	20	0.14
Tom Steyer (withdrawn)	6	0.04
Michael Bennet (withdrawn)	3	0.02
John Delaney (withdrawn)	3	0.02
Deval Patrick (withdrawn)	2	0.01
Unsigned votes / Overvotes / Blank Votes	[a] 133	0.91
Total	14,546	100%	14

Republican caucuses

The North Dakota Republican Party held a non-binding firehouse caucus on March 10, 2020, with incumbent President Donald Trump running unopposed. ^{[5] [6]}

The party then formally selected their 29 Republican National Convention delegates, unpledged to any particular candidate at the state party convention. The state party convention was originally scheduled for March 27–29, but due to concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic it was ultimately cancelled. ^{[7] [8]}

Libertarian nominee

• Jo Jorgensen, Psychology Senior Lecturer at Clemson University

General election

Final predictions

Source	Ranking
The Cook Political Report [9]	Solid R
Inside Elections [10]	Solid R
Sabato's Crystal Ball [11]	Safe R
Politico [12]	Solid R
RCP [13]	Solid R
Niskanen [14]	Safe R
CNN [15]	Solid R
The Economist [16]	Safe R
CBS News [17]	Likely R
270towin [18]	Safe R
ABC News [19]	Solid R
NPR [20]	Likely R
NBC News [21]	Solid R
538 [22]	Solid R

Polling

Graphical summary

Polls with a sample size of <100 have their sample size entries marked in red to indicate a lack of reliability.

Aggregate polls

Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Joe Biden Democratic-NPL	Donald J. Trump Republican	Other/ Undecided [b]	Margin
270 to Win [23]	September 26 – October 17, 2020	October 19, 2020	38.0%	57.5%	4.5%	Trump +19.5
FiveThirtyEight [24]	until November 2, 2020	November 3, 2020	38.7%	56.0%	5.3%	Trump +17.3
Average			38.4%	56.8%	4.8%	Trump +18.4

Polls

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [c]	Margin of error	Donald J. Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic-NPL	Jo Jorgensen Libertarian	Other	Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios [25]	Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020	402 (LV)	± 7%	59% [d]	39%	–	–	–
SurveyMonkey/Axios [25]	Oct 1–28, 2020	700 (LV)	–	57%	42%	–	–	–
SurveyMonkey/Axios [25]	Sep 1–30, 2020	249 (LV)	–	63%	34%	–	–	3%
DFM Research/North Dakota Voters First [26]	Sep 26–29, 2020	460 (A)	± 4.6%	51%	37%	–	4% [e]	7%
DFM Research/North Dakota Voters First [27]	Sep 12–16, 2020	500 (LV)	± 4.5%	56%	37%	–	3% [f]	4%
SurveyMonkey/Axios [25]	Aug 1–31, 2020	269 (LV)	–	66%	32%	–	–	2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios [25]	Jul 1–31, 2020	261 (LV)	–	63%	36%	–	–	1%
SurveyMonkey/Axios [25]	Jun 8–30, 2020	88 (LV)	–	71%	28%	–	–	1%
DFM Research [28]	Mar 3–5, 2020	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	55%	38%	–	2%	5%
DFM Research [29]	Jan 28 – Feb 1, 2020	600 (A)	± 4.0%	59%	34%	–	2%	5%
1892 Polling/Doug Burgum [30] [A]	Jul 15–17, 2019	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	60%	34%	–	–	–
DFM Research [31]	May 14–18, 2019	400 (A)	± 4.9%	54%	39%	–	2%	5%

Former candidates

with Donald J. Trump and Michael Bloomberg Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size [c] Margin of error Donald J. Trump (R) Michael Bloomberg (D-NPL) Other Undecided DFM Research [29] Jan 28 – Feb 1, 2020 600 (A) ± 4.0% 59% 32% 1% 7% with Donald J. Trump and Pete Buttigieg Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size [c] Margin of error Donald J. Trump (R) Pete Buttigieg (D-NPL) Other Undecided DFM Research [29] Jan 28 – Feb 1, 2020 600 (A) ± 4.0% 59% 31% 2% 8% with Donald J. Trump and Amy Klobuchar Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size [c] Margin of error Donald J. Trump (R) Amy Klobuchar (D-NPL) Other Undecided DFM Research [29] Jan 28 – Feb 1, 2020 600 (A) ± 4.0% 59% 33% 1% 7% with Donald J. Trump and Bernie Sanders Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size [c] Margin of error Donald J. Trump (R) Bernie Sanders (D-NPL) Other Undecided DFM Research [28] Mar 3–5, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 58% 33% 4% 4% DFM Research [29] Jan 28 – Feb 1, 2020 600 (A) ± 4.0% 61% 32% 1% 5% with Donald J. Trump and Elizabeth Warren Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size [c] Margin of error Donald J. Trump (R) Elizabeth Warren (D-NPL) Other Undecided DFM Research [29] Jan 28 – Feb 1, 2020 600 (A) ± 4.0% 62% 31% 2% 6% Zogby Analytics [32] Aug 17–23, 2017 403 (LV) ± 4.9% 47% 36% – 17%

Electoral slates

These slates of electors were nominated by each party in order to vote in the Electoral College should their candidate win the state: ^[33]

Donald Trump and Mike Pence Republican Party	Joe Biden and Kamala Harris Democratic-NPL Party	Jo Jorgensen and Spike Cohen Libertarian Party
Sandy J. Boehler Ray Holmberg Robert Wefald	Heidi Heitkamp Bernice Knutson Warren Larson	Dustin Gawrylow Martin J. Riske Dylan Stuckey

Results

2020 United States presidential election in North Dakota ^[1]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Donald J. Trump Michael R. Pence	235,595	65.11%	+2.16%
	Democratic–NPL	Joe Biden Kamala Harris	114,902	31.78%	+4.53%
	Libertarian	Jo Jorgensen Spike Cohen	9,393	2.60%	−3.63%
	Write-in		1,929	0.53%	−1.32%
Total votes			361,819	100.00%
	Republican hold

By county

County	Donald Trump Republican		Joe Biden Democratic-NPL		Various candidates Other parties		Margin		Total
	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%
Adams	981	77.30%	258	20.33%	30	2.37%	723	56.97%	1,269
Barnes	3,568	64.12%	1,820	32.70%	177	3.18%	1,748	31.42%	5,565
Benson	1,094	55.79%	822	41.92%	45	2.29%	272	13.87%	1,961
Billings	541	85.20%	72	11.34%	22	3.46%	469	73.86%	635
Bottineau	2,575	74.19%	821	23.65%	75	2.16%	1,754	50.54%	3,471
Bowman	1,395	84.19%	228	13.76%	34	2.05%	1,167	70.43%	1,657
Burke	994	86.06%	137	11.86%	24	2.08%	857	74.20%	1,155
Burleigh	34,744	68.46%	14,348	28.27%	1,661	3.27%	20,396	40.19%	50,753
Cass	42,619	49.53%	40,311	46.84%	3,123	3.63%	2,308	2.69%	86,053
Cavalier	1,499	74.21%	474	23.47%	47	2.32%	1,025	50.74%	2,020
Dickey	1,742	71.86%	608	25.08%	74	3.06%	1,134	46.78%	2,424
Divide	904	75.21%	265	22.05%	33	2.74%	639	53.16%	1,202
Dunn	1,951	83.45%	342	14.63%	45	1.92%	1,609	68.82%	2,338
Eddy	854	67.72%	383	30.37%	24	1.91%	471	37.35%	1,261
Emmons	1,738	86.51%	237	11.80%	34	1.69%	1,501	74.71%	2,009
Foster	1,362	76.60%	373	20.98%	43	2.42%	989	55.62%	1,778
Golden Valley	871	84.89%	137	13.35%	18	1.76%	634	71.54%	1,026
Grand Forks	16,987	54.85%	12,880	41.59%	1,103	3.56%	4,107	13.26%	30,970
Grant	1,145	82.91%	207	14.99%	29	2.10%	938	67.92%	1,381
Griggs	907	72.56%	308	24.64%	35	2.80%	599	47.92%	1,250
Hettinger	1,091	83.16%	196	14.94%	25	1.90%	895	68.22%	1,312
Kidder	1,215	83.22%	221	15.14%	24	1.64%	994	68.08%	1,460
LaMoure	1,645	74.13%	527	23.75%	47	2.12%	1,118	50.38%	2,219
Logan	930	86.43%	128	11.90%	18	1.67%	802	74.53%	1,076
McHenry	2,364	78.72%	564	18.78%	75	2.50%	1,800	59.94%	3,003
McIntosh	1,153	79.24%	261	17.94%	41	2.82%	892	61.30%	1,455
McKenzie	4,482	82.71%	814	15.02%	123	2.27%	3,668	67.69%	5,419
McLean	4,198	75.83%	1,230	22.22%	108	1.95%	2,968	53.61%	5,536
Mercer	3,856	82.48%	704	15.06%	115	2.46%	3,152	67.42%	4,675
Morton	12,243	73.67%	3,872	23.30%	504	3.03%	8,371	50.37%	16,619
Mountrail	2,824	67.80%	1,256	30.16%	85	2.04%	1,568	37.64%	4,165
Nelson	1,141	64.21%	586	32.98%	50	2.81%	555	31.23%	1,777
Oliver	918	86.12%	129	12.10%	19	1.78%	789	74.02%	1,066
Pembina	2,460	73.85%	786	23.60%	85	2.55%	1,674	50.25%	3,331
Pierce	1,585	74.48%	497	23.36%	46	2.16%	1,088	51.12%	2,128
Ramsey	3,577	66.59%	1,639	30.51%	156	2.90%	1,938	36.08%	5,372
Ransom	1,418	57.78%	945	38.51%	91	3.71%	473	19.27%	2,454
Renville	1,065	80.74%	220	16.68%	34	2.58%	845	64.06%	1,319
Richland	5,072	64.93%	2,510	32.13%	230	2.94%	2,562	32.80%	7,812
Rolette	1,257	33.04%	2,482	65.25%	65	1.71%	-1,225	-32.21%	3,804
Sargent	1,266	61.16%	738	35.65%	66	3.19%	528	25.51%	2,070
Sheridan	688	84.73%	104	12.81%	20	2.46%	584	71.92%	812
Sioux	258	21.75%	804	67.79%	124	10.46%	-546	-46.04%	1,186
Slope	380	88.99%	44	10.30%	3	0.71%	336	78.69%	427
Stark	12,110	80.47%	2,499	16.60%	441	2.93%	9,611	63.87%	15,050
Steele	652	59.93%	392	36.03%	44	4.04%	260	23.90%	1,088
Stutsman	6,994	70.23%	2,676	26.87%	289	2.90%	4,318	43.36%	9,959
Towner	830	70.70%	317	27.00%	27	2.30%	513	43.70%	1,174
Traill	2,522	60.98%	1,493	36.10%	121	2.92%	1,029	24.88%	4,136
Walsh	3,324	69.50%	1,333	27.87%	126	2.63%	1,991	41.63%	4,783
Ward	19,974	70.71%	7,293	25.82%	979	3.47%	12,681	44.89%	28,246
Wells	1,893	79.74%	442	18.62%	39	1.64%	1,451	61.12%	2,374
Williams	11,739	81.90%	2,169	15.13%	426	2.97%	9,570	66.77%	14,334
Totals	235,595	65.11%	114,902	31.76%	11,322	3.13%	120,693	33.35%	361,819

Swing by county

Legend

•   Democratic — +7.5-10%
•   Democratic — +5-7.5%
•   Democratic — +2.5-5%
•   Democratic — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +2.5-5%
•   Republican — +5-7.5%
•   Republican — +7.5-10%
•   Republican — +10-12.5%

Trend relative to the state by county

Legend

•   Democratic — +7.5-10%
•   Democratic — +5-7.5%
•   Democratic — +2.5-5%
•   Democratic — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +2.5-5%
•   Republican — +5-7.5%
•   Republican — +7.5-10%
•   Republican — +10-12.5%

By congressional district

Due to the state's low population, only one congressional district is allocated. This district is an at-large district, because it covers the entire state, and thus is equivalent to the statewide election results.

District	Trump	Biden	Representative
At-large	65.11%	31.76%	Kelly Armstrong

Analysis

North Dakota, a rural state covered in the Midwestern Plains, is one of the most reliably Republican states in the nation. It last voted for a Democrat in 1964, when Lyndon B. Johnson carried it against the backdrop of his nationwide landslide victory. Since 1964, North Dakota has been competitive in only three elections: 1976, 1996, and 2008.

A few prime reasons why this state votes heavily for Republicans include its older, majority-White populace; agribusiness; and the state's recent oil boom. In recent presidential elections, Bakken shale oil has been a major driver of conservative success in the state, as the oil boom increasingly fuels the economy of North Dakota. ^[34] The main oil boom has taken place in the western counties—perhaps Trump's main base. Trump signed executive orders on his first month in office, reviving the Keystone and Dakota Access Pipelines rejected by the Obama administration. ^[35]

See also

• United States presidential elections in North Dakota
• Presidency of Joe Biden
• 2020 United States presidential election
• 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries
• 2020 Libertarian Party presidential primaries
• 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries
• 2020 United States elections

Notes

1. Unsigned 87, over 7, blank 39 votes
2. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
3. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
4. Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
5. "Other candidate" with 4%
6. "Other candidate" with 3%

Partisan clients

1. Poll sponsored by Burgum's campaign

References

1. "Statewide Results". North Dakota Secretary of State. November 12, 2020. Retrieved November 17, 2020.
2. Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?" . The Independent . Archived from the original on August 2, 2018. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
3. "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration . Retrieved January 3, 2019.
4. "2020 Democratic Caucus Results". North Dakota Democratic-NPL Party. Archived from the original on October 30, 2020. Retrieved June 11, 2020.
5. "6 states will vote in Tuesday's GOP presidential primary. Trump will win all 6". Vox. March 10, 2020.
6. "North Dakota Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved April 4, 2020.
7. "North Dakota GOP cancels state convention because of coronavirus threat". KFGO. March 18, 2020.
8. "2020 State Convention – North Dakota Republican Party". Archived from the original on November 3, 2020. Retrieved March 18, 2020.
9. "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
10. "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
11. "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
12. "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
13. "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
14. 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine , Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
15. David Chalian; Terence Burlij (June 11, 2020). "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
16. "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
17. "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
18. "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
19. "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
20. "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
21. "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. August 6, 2020. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
22. "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. August 12, 2020. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
23. 270 to Win
24. FiveThirtyEight
25. SurveyMonkey/Axios
26. "DFM Research/North Dakota Voters First" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on October 6, 2020. Retrieved October 5, 2020.
27. DFM Research/North Dakota Voters First
28. DFM Research
29. DFM Research
30. 1892 Polling/Doug Burgum
31. DFM Research
32. Zogby Analytics
33. "Statewide Results". North Dakota Secretary of State. Retrieved December 6, 2020.
34. Cohen, Micah (October 14, 2012). "An Extra Ingredient in North Dakota Politics: Oil". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved November 13, 2020.
35. Volcovici, Valerie (December 6, 2016). "Trump supports completion of Dakota Access Pipeline". Reuters. Retrieved November 13, 2020.

Further reading

• Summary: State Laws on Presidential Electors (PDF), Washington DC: National Association of Secretaries of State, August 2020, North Dakota

External links

• Government Documents Round Table of the American Library Association, "North Dakota", Voting & Elections Toolkits
• "North Dakota: Election Tools, Deadlines, Dates, Rules, and Links", Vote.org , Oakland, CA
• "League of Women Voters of North Dakota". (state affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
• North Dakota at Ballotpedia