2020 United States House of Representatives election ratings

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2020 United States House of Representatives election ratings
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The 2020 United States House of Representatives elections were held November 3, 2020, to elect representatives from all 435 congressional districts across each of the 50 U.S. states. The six non-voting delegates from the District of Columbia and the inhabited U.S. territories were also elected. Numerous federal, state, and local elections, including the 2020 presidential election and the 2020 Senate elections, were also held on this date.

Contents

Election ratings

Latest published ratings for competitive seats

Several sites and individuals publish ratings of competitive seats. The seats listed below were considered competitive (not "safe" or "solid") by at least one of the rating groups. These ratings are based upon factors such as the strength of the incumbent (if the incumbent is running for re-election), the strength of the candidates, and the partisan history of the district (the Cook Partisan Voting Index is one example of this metric). Each rating describes the likelihood of a given outcome in the election.

Most election ratings use:

District CPVI [1] IncumbentLast result [2] Cook
Nov 2,
2020
[3]
IE
Oct 28,
2020
[4]
Sabato
Nov 2,
2020
[5]
Daily Kos
Nov 2,
2020
[6]
RCP
Nov 2,
2020
[7]
DDHQ
Nov 3,
2020
[8]
538 [lower-alpha 1]
Nov 3,
2020
[9]
ED
Nov 1,
2020
[10]
Winner [11]
Alaska at-large R+9 Don Young (R)53.1% RLean RLikely RLean RLean RLikely RLean RLikely RLean R Don Young (R)
Arizona 1 R+2 Tom O'Halleran (D)53.8% DLean DLikely DLikely DLean DLean DLikely DLikely DLikely D Tom O'Halleran (D)
Arizona 2 R+1 Ann Kirkpatrick (D)54.7% DSafe DSafe DSafe DSafe DLikely DSafe DSolid DSafe D Ann Kirkpatrick (D)
Arizona 6 R+9 David Schweikert (R)55.2% RTossupTossupLean D (flip)TossupLean RTossupTossupLean R David Schweikert (R)
Arkansas 2 R+7 French Hill (R)52.1% RTossupTossupLean RTossupLean RTossupLean RLean R French Hill (R)
California 1 R+11 Doug LaMalfa (R)54.9% RSafe RSafe RLikely RSafe RLikely RLikely RSolid RLikely R Doug LaMalfa (R)
California 4 R+10 Tom McClintock (R)54.1% RLikely RSafe RLikely RLikely RLikely RLikely RSolid RLikely R Tom McClintock (R)
California 7 D+3 Ami Bera (D)55.1% DSafe DSafe DSafe DSafe DLikely DSafe DSolid DSafe D Ami Bera (D)
California 8 R+9 Paul Cook (R)
(retiring)
60.0% R [lower-alpha 2] Safe RSafe RSafe RSafe RLikely RLikely RSolid RSafe R Jay Obernolte (R)
California 10 EVEN Josh Harder (D)52.3% DLikely DSafe DSafe DSafe DLean DLikely DLikely DSafe D Josh Harder (D)
California 21 D+5 TJ Cox (D)50.4% DTossupTossupLean DTossupTossupLean DTossupLean D David Valadao (R)
California 22 R+8 Devin Nunes (R)52.7% RLikely RSafe RSafe RSafe RLikely RLikely RSolid RSafe R Devin Nunes (R)
California 25 EVEN Mike Garcia (R)54.9% RTossupTossupLean RTossupTossupLean D (flip)TossupLean R Mike Garcia (R)
California 39 EVEN Gil Cisneros (D)51.6% DLikely DLikely DLean DLean DTossupTossupLean DLean D Young Kim (R)
California 42 R+9 Ken Calvert (R)56.5% RSafe RSafe RSafe RSafe RSafe RSafe RLikely RSafe R Ken Calvert (R)
California 45 R+3 Katie Porter (D)52.1% DSafe DSafe DSafe DSafe DLikely DSafe DLikely DSafe D Katie Porter (D)
California 48 R+4 Harley Rouda (D)53.6% DLean DLean DLean DLean DLean DLean DLean DLean D Michelle Steel (R)
California 50 R+11Vacant51.7% RLean RLikely RLikely RLikely RLikely RLikely RLikely RLean R Darrell Issa (R)
Colorado 3 R+6 Scott Tipton (R)
(lost renomination)
51.5% RLean RTilt RLean RLean RTossupTossupLean RLean R Lauren Boebert (R)
Colorado 6 D+2 Jason Crow (D)54.1% DSafe DSafe DSafe DSafe DSafe DLikely DSolid DSafe D Jason Crow (D)
Florida 7 EVEN Stephanie Murphy (D)57.7% DSafe DSafe DSafe DSafe DLikely DLikely DSolid DSafe D Stephanie Murphy (D)
Florida 13 D+2 Charlie Crist (D)57.6% DSafe DSafe DSafe DSafe DLikely DLikely DSolid DSafe D Charlie Crist (D)
Florida 15 R+6 Ross Spano (R)
(lost renomination)
53.0% RLean RLean RLean RLikely RTossupLean RLikely RLean R Scott Franklin (R)
Florida 16 R+7 Vern Buchanan (R)54.6% RLikely RLikely RLikely RLikely RLean RLikely RLikely RLikely R Vern Buchanan (R)
Florida 18 R+5 Brian Mast (R)54.3% RLikely RLikely RLikely RLikely RSafe RLikely RLikely RSafe R Brian Mast (R)
Florida 26 D+6 Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D)50.9% DLean DTilt DLean DTossupTossupLikely DLikely DLean D Carlos Giménez (R)
Florida 27 D+5 Donna Shalala (D)51.8% DLikely DSafe DLikely DLean DLikely DLikely DLikely DSafe D Maria Elvira Salazar (R)
Georgia 6 R+8 Lucy McBath (D)50.5% DLikely DLikely DLikely DLean DTossupLean DLean DLean D Lucy McBath (D)
Georgia 7 R+9 Rob Woodall (R)
(retiring)
50.1% RLean D (flip)Tilt D (flip)Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)TossupTossupTossupLean D (flip) Carolyn Bourdeaux (D)
Illinois 6 R+2 Sean Casten (D)53.6% DSafe DSafe DSafe DSafe DLikely DLean DLikely DSafe D Sean Casten (D)
Illinois 13 R+3 Rodney Davis (R)50.4% RTossupTossupLean RTossupTossupTossupLean RLean R Rodney Davis (R)
Illinois 14 R+5 Lauren Underwood (D)52.5% DLikely DSafe DLikely DLikely DLean DLikely DLikely DLikely D Lauren Underwood (D)
Illinois 17 D+3 Cheri Bustos (D)62.1% DLean DSafe DLikely DLikely DLikely DLikely DSolid DLikely D Cheri Bustos (D)
Indiana 5 R+9 Susan Brooks (R)
(retiring)
56.8% RTossupTilt D (flip)Lean D (flip)TossupTossupTossupTossupLean D (flip) Victoria Spartz (R)
Iowa 1 D+1 Abby Finkenauer (D)51.0% DTossupLean DLean DLean DTossupLean DLikely DLean D Ashley Hinson (R)
Iowa 2 D+1 Dave Loebsack (D)
(retiring)
54.8% DTossupLean DLean DLean DTossupLikely DLikely DLean D Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R)
Iowa 3 R+1 Cindy Axne (D)49.3% DLean DLean DLean DLean DTossupLikely DLikely DLean D Cindy Axne (D)
Iowa 4 R+11 Steve King (R)
(lost primary)
50.3% RSafe RSafe RSafe RSafe RLean RLikely RSolid RSafe R Randy Feenstra (R)
Kansas 2 R+10 Steve Watkins (R)
(lost primary)
47.6% RLikely RSafe RLikely RLikely RLean RLikely RLikely RLikely R Jake LaTurner (R)
Kansas 3 R+4 Sharice Davids (D)53.6% DSafe DSafe DSafe DSafe DLikely DLikely DSolid DSafe D Sharice Davids (D)
Kentucky 6 R+9 Andy Barr (R)51.0% RLikely RSafe RLikely RLikely RLean RLikely RLikely RLikely R Andy Barr (R)
Maine 2 R+2 Jared Golden (D)50.5% DLikely DSafe DLikely DLikely DLean DLikely DSolid DLikely D Jared Golden (D)
Michigan 3 R+6 Justin Amash (L)
(retiring)
54.4% RTossupTossupLean R (flip)TossupTossupTossupTossupLean R (flip) Peter Meijer (R)
Michigan 6 R+4 Fred Upton (R)50.2% RLean RLikely RLean RLikely RLean RLean RLean RLean R Fred Upton (R)
Michigan 7 R+7 Tim Walberg (R)53.8% RSafe RSafe RSafe RSafe RSafe RSafe RLikely RSafe R Tim Walberg (R)
Michigan 8 R+4 Elissa Slotkin (D)50.6% DLean DSafe DLikely DLikely DTossupLikely DLikely DLikely D Elissa Slotkin (D)
Michigan 11 R+4 Haley Stevens (D)51.8% DLean DSafe DLikely DLikely DTossupLikely DLikely DLikely D Haley Stevens (D)
Minnesota 1 R+5 Jim Hagedorn (R)50.1% RTossupTilt D (flip)Lean D (flip)TossupLean RTossupLean RLean R Jim Hagedorn (R)
Minnesota 2 R+2 Angie Craig (D)52.7% DLikely DSafe DLikely DLikely DLean DLikely DLikely DLikely D Angie Craig (D)
Minnesota 3 D+1 Dean Phillips (D)55.7% DSafe DSafe DSafe DSafe DSafe DLean DSolid DSafe D Dean Phillips (D)
Minnesota 5 D+26 Ilhan Omar (D)78.2% DSafe DSafe DSafe DSafe DSafe DLikely DSolid DSafe D Ilhan Omar (D)
Minnesota 7 R+12 Collin Peterson (D)52.1% DTossupTossupLean R (flip)Lean R (flip)TossupLean R (flip)Likely R (flip)Lean R (flip) Michelle Fischbach (R)
Minnesota 8 R+4 Pete Stauber (R)50.7% RSafe RSafe RSafe RSafe RLikely RSafe RSolid RSafe R Pete Stauber (R)
Missouri 2 R+8 Ann Wagner (R)51.2% RTossupTilt D (flip)Lean RTossupTossupLean RLean RLean D (flip) Ann Wagner (R)
Montana at-large R+11 Greg Gianforte (R)
(retiring)
50.9% RLean RLean RLean RLean RTossupLean RLikely RLean R Matt Rosendale (R)
Nebraska 2 R+4 Don Bacon (R)51.0% RTossupTilt D (flip)Lean RTossupTossupTossupLean RLean R Don Bacon (R)
Nevada 3 R+2 Susie Lee (D)51.9% DLean DLikely DLean DLean DTossupLean DLikely DLikely D Susie Lee (D)
Nevada 4 D+3 Steven Horsford (D)51.9% DLikely DSafe DLikely DLikely DLikely DLikely DLean DLikely D Steven Horsford (D)
New Hampshire 1 R+2 Chris Pappas (D)53.6% DLikely DLikely DLikely DLikely DTossupLean DLikely DLikely D Chris Pappas (D)
New Hampshire 2 D+2 Annie Kuster (D)55.5% DSafe DSafe DLikely DSafe DLean DLikely DSolid DLikely D Annie Kuster (D)
New Jersey 2 R+1 Jeff Van Drew (R)52.9% DTossupTilt D (flip)Lean D (flip)TossupTossupTossupTossupLean D (flip) Jeff Van Drew (R)
New Jersey 3 R+2 Andy Kim (D)50.0% DLikely DSafe DLikely DLean DTossupLikely DLikely DLikely D Andy Kim (D)
New Jersey 5 R+3 Josh Gottheimer (D)56.2% DSafe DSafe DSafe DSafe DLikely DSafe DSolid DSafe D Josh Gottheimer (D)
New Jersey 7 R+3 Tom Malinowski (D)51.7% DLean DLikely DLean DLean DLean DLean DLikely DLean D Tom Malinowski (D)
New Jersey 11 R+3 Mikie Sherrill (D)56.8% DSafe DSafe DSafe DSafe DLikely DLikely DSolid DSafe D Mikie Sherrill (D)
New Mexico 2 R+6 Xochitl Torres Small (D)50.9% DTossupTossupLean DTossupTossupTossupTossupLean D Yvette Herrell (R)
New York 1 R+5 Lee Zeldin (R)51.5% RLean RLean RLean RLean RLean RLean RLikely RLean R Lee Zeldin (R)
New York 2 R+3 Peter T. King (R)
(retiring)
53.1% RTossupTossupLean RTossupTossupLikely D (flip)TossupLean D (flip) Andrew Garbarino (R)
New York 11 R+3 Max Rose (D)53.0% DTossupTossupLean DTossupTossupLean DTossupLean R (flip) Nicole Malliotakis (R)
New York 18 R+1 Sean Patrick Maloney (D)55.5% DSafe DSafe DLikely DSafe DLikely DLikely DSolid DSafe D Sean Patrick Maloney (D)
New York 19 R+2 Antonio Delgado (D)51.4% DLikely DSafe DLikely DSafe DLikely DSafe DLikely DSafe D Antonio Delgado (D)
New York 21 R+4 Elise Stefanik (R)56.1% RSafe RSafe RSafe RSafe RSafe RLikely RSolid RSafe R Elise Stefanik (R)
New York 22 R+6 Anthony Brindisi (D)50.8% DTossupTilt DLean DTossupTossupLean DLean DLean D Claudia Tenney (R)
New York 24 D+3 John Katko (R)52.6% RTossupTilt RLean RTossupTossupTossupLean RLean D (flip) John Katko (R)
New York 27 R+11 Chris Jacobs (R)51.8% RSafe RSafe RLikely RSafe RLikely RSafe RSolid RSafe R Chris Jacobs (R)
North Carolina 1 D+17 G. K. Butterfield (D)69.8% DSafe DSafe DSafe DSafe DSafe DLean DLikely DSafe D G. K. Butterfield (D)
North Carolina 2 D+9 George Holding (R)
(retiring)
51.3% RLikely D (flip)Likely D (flip)Safe D (flip)Safe D (flip)Safe D (flip)Safe D (flip)Solid D (flip)Safe D (flip) Deborah Ross (D)
North Carolina 6 D+8 Mark Walker (R)
(retiring)
56.5% RLikely D (flip)Likely D (flip)Safe D (flip)Safe D (flip)Safe D (flip)Safe D (flip)Solid D (flip)Safe D (flip) Kathy Manning (D)
North Carolina 8 R+5 Richard Hudson (R)55.3% RLean RTilt RLean RLean RLikely RLean RLean RLean R Richard Hudson (R)
North Carolina 9 R+7 Dan Bishop (R)50.7% RLean RSafe RLikely RLikely RLikely RLikely RLikely RLikely R Dan Bishop (R)
North Carolina 11 R+14Vacant59.2% RLean RLean RLean RLikely RLikely RTossupLean RLikely R Madison Cawthorn (R)
Ohio 1 R+5 Steve Chabot (R)51.3% RTossupTilt D (flip)Lean D (flip)TossupLikely RLean RTossupLean R Steve Chabot (R)
Ohio 10 R+4 Mike Turner (R)55.9% RLikely RLikely RLikely RLikely RLikely RLean RLikely RSafe R Mike Turner (R)
Ohio 12 R+7 Troy Balderson (R)51.4% RLikely RSafe RLikely RLikely RLean RSafe RLikely RLikely R Troy Balderson (R)
Ohio 13 D+7 Tim Ryan (D)61.0% DSafe DSafe DSafe DSafe DSafe DLikely DSolid DSafe D Tim Ryan (D)
Oklahoma 5 R+10 Kendra Horn (D)50.7% DTossupTossupLean DTossupTossupTossupTossupLean R (flip) Stephanie Bice (R)
Oregon 4 EVEN Peter DeFazio (D)56.0% DLean DLikely DLean DLikely DTossupTossupLikely DLean D Peter DeFazio (D)
Pennsylvania 1 R+1 Brian Fitzpatrick (R)51.3% RLean RLean RLean RTossupTossupLean RLikely RLean R Brian Fitzpatrick (R)
Pennsylvania 7 D+1 Susan Wild (D)53.5% DLikely DSafe DLikely DSafe DLikely DLikely DSolid DLikely D Susan Wild (D)
Pennsylvania 8 R+1 Matt Cartwright (D)54.6% DLean DSafe DLikely DLikely DTossupLikely DLikely DLikely D Matt Cartwright (D)
Pennsylvania 10 R+6 Scott Perry (R)51.3% RTossupTossupLean D (flip)TossupTossupTossupTossupLean D (flip) Scott Perry (R)
Pennsylvania 16 R+8 Mike Kelly (R)51.6% RLikely RSafe RSafe RSafe RSafe RSafe RSolid RLikely R Mike Kelly (R)
Pennsylvania 17 R+3 Conor Lamb (D)56.3% DLikely DSafe DLikely DLikely DTossupTossupLikely DLean D Conor Lamb (D)
South Carolina 1 R+10 Joe Cunningham (D)50.6% DLean DLean DLean DLean DTossupTossupLean DLean D Nancy Mace (R)
South Carolina 2 R+12 Joe Wilson (R)56.3% RSafe RSafe RLikely RLikely RSafe RLikely RSolid RLean R Joe Wilson (R)
Texas 1 R+25 Louie Gohmert (R)72.3% RSafe RSafe RSafe RSafe RSafe RLikely RSolid RSafe R Louie Gohmert (R)
Texas 2 R+11 Dan Crenshaw (R)52.8% RLikely RSafe RLikely RLikely RSafe RSafe RSolid RLikely R Dan Crenshaw (R)
Texas 3 R+13 Van Taylor (R)54.3% RLean RLean RLikely RLikely RSafe RLean RLikely RLikely R Van Taylor (R)
Texas 6 R+9 Ron Wright (R)53.1% RLikely RLikely RLikely RLikely RSafe RLikely RLikely RLikely R Ron Wright (R)
Texas 7 R+7 Lizzie Fletcher (D)52.5% DLikely DLikely DLikely DLikely DLean DTossupLikely DLikely D Lizzie Fletcher (D)
Texas 10 R+9 Michael McCaul (R)51.1% RTossupLean RLean RLean RTossupLean RLikely RLean R Michael McCaul (R)
Texas 21 R+10 Chip Roy (R)50.2% RTossupTossupLean RTossupTossupLean RLean RLean R Chip Roy (R)
Texas 22 R+10 Pete Olson (R)
(retiring)
51.4% RTossupTossupLean RTossupTossupLean D (flip)Lean RLean R Troy Nehls (R)
Texas 23 R+1 Will Hurd (R)
(retiring)
49.2% RLean D (flip)Tilt D (flip)Lean D (flip)Lean D (flip)TossupLean D (flip)Lean D (flip)Likely D (flip) Tony Gonzales (R)
Texas 24 R+9 Kenny Marchant (R)
(retiring)
50.6% RLean D (flip)Tilt D (flip)Lean D (flip)TossupTossupTossupTossupLean D (flip) Beth Van Duyne (R)
Texas 25 R+11 Roger Williams (R)53.5% RLikely RLikely RLikely RLikely RLikely RLikely RLikely RLikely R Roger Williams (R)
Texas 27 R+13 Michael Cloud (R)60.3% RSafe RSafe RSafe RSafe RSafe RLikely RSolid RSafe R Michael Cloud (R)
Texas 31 R+10 John Carter (R)50.6% RLean RSafe RLikely RLikely RLikely RSafe RLikely RLikely R John Carter (R)
Texas 32 R+5 Colin Allred (D)52.3% DLikely DSafe DLikely DLikely DLean DLean DLikely DLikely D Colin Allred (D)
Utah 4 R+13 Ben McAdams (D)50.1% DTossupTilt DLean DTossupTossupTossupTossupLean D Burgess Owens (R)
Virginia 1 R+8 Rob Wittman (R)55.2% RSafe RSafe RSafe RSafe RSafe RSafe RLikely RSafe R Rob Wittman (R)
Virginia 2 R+3 Elaine Luria (D)51.1% DLean DLikely DLean DLean DTossupLikely DLikely DLean D Elaine Luria (D)
Virginia 5 R+6 Denver Riggleman (R)
(lost renomination)
53.2% RTossupTossupLean RLean RLean RLean D (flip)TossupLean D (flip) Bob Good (R)
Virginia 7 R+6 Abigail Spanberger (D)50.3% DLean DTilt DLean DTossupTossupTossupLikely DLean D Abigail Spanberger (D)
Virginia 10 D+1 Jennifer Wexton (D)56.2% DSafe DSafe DSafe DSafe DSafe DLikely DSolid DSafe D Jennifer Wexton (D)
Washington 3 R+4 Jaime Herrera Beutler (R)52.7% RLean RLean RLean RLean RLean RLean RLikely RLikely R Jaime Herrera Beutler (R)
Washington 8 EVEN Kim Schrier (D)52.4% DLikely DSafe DLean DSafe DLean DLikely DSolid DLikely D Kim Schrier (D)
Wisconsin 3 EVEN Ron Kind (D)59.7% DLean DSafe DLikely DLikely DLean DLikely DLikely DLikely D Ron Kind (D)
Overall D - 229
R - 179
27 tossups
D - 239
R - 181
15 tossups
D - 243
R - 192
D - 228
R - 181
26 tossups
D - 209
R - 182
44 tossups
D - 230
R - 182
23 tossups
D - 230
R - 189
16 tossups
D - 242
R - 193
D - 222 Decrease2.svg 13
R - 213 Increase2.svg 14
L - 0 Decrease2.svg 1
District 2017 CPVI IncumbentPrevious result Cook IE Sabato Daily Kos RCP DDHQ 538 ED Winner

Generic ballot polls

The following is a list of generic party ballot polls conducted in advance of the 2020 House of Representatives elections.

Polling aggregates
Source of poll aggregationDate updatedDates polledDemocraticRepublicanLead
FiveThirtyEight Nov 3, 2020Until Nov 2, 202049.9%42.6%+7.3%
RealClearPolitics Nov 3, 2020Oct 25, 2020 - Nov 2, 202049.3%42.5%+6.8%
Average49.6%42.6%+7.1%

Party listings

The campaign committees for the two parties -- the DCCC and NRCC -- publish their own lists of targeted seats.

Democratic

These races were added to the DCCC's "battlefield" list in January 2020. [12]

These races were added to the DCCC's "battlefield" list in August 2019. [13]

These races were added to the DCCC's "battlefield" list in January 2019. [14]

These races were added to the DCCC's "frontline" list of defensive targets in February 2019. [15]

Republican

These races were announced as the NRCC's offensive targets in February 2019. [16]

Notes

  1. Represents the Deluxe model
  2. The 2018 race was between two Republicans, due to the top-two system in California

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References

  1. Wasserman, David; Flinn, Ally (April 7, 2017). "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index". Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on December 23, 2017.
  2. "House election results 2018". Cnn.com. Retrieved January 9, 2019.
  3. "2020 House Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved November 2, 2020.
  4. "House Ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved October 30, 2020.
  5. "2020 House race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Archived from the original on September 21, 2020. Retrieved November 2, 2020.
  6. "2020 House Race Ratings". Daily Kos . Retrieved November 3, 2020.
  7. "Battle for the House 2020". RealClearPolitics. June 9, 2020. Retrieved October 28, 2020.
  8. "2020 House Election Model". Øptimus Consulting. Decision Desk HQ. November 3, 2020. Retrieved July 31, 2022.
  9. "2020 House Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. November 3, 2020. Retrieved November 3, 2020.
  10. "2020 House Race Ratings". Elections Daily. Retrieved November 1, 2021.
  11. "House Election Results". The New York Times. November 20, 2020. Retrieved November 20, 2020.
  12. "MEMO: Democrats Set to Protect & Expand House Majority, as 2020 Kicks off" (PDF). January 16, 2020. Archived from the original on June 29, 2020. Retrieved January 21, 2020.
  13. "MEMO: DCCC Expands Offensive Battlefield to 39 Districts". August 15, 2019. Retrieved January 21, 2020.
  14. "Democrats Go on Offense – DCCC Chairwoman Cheri Bustos Announces Initial 2020 Offensive Battlefield". January 28, 2019. Retrieved January 21, 2020.
  15. "2019-2020 DCCC Frontline Members". February 7, 2019. Retrieved January 21, 2020.
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