2020 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania

Last updated

2020 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania
Flag of Pennsylvania.svg
  2016 November 3, 2020 2024  
Turnout76.5% [1]
  Joe Biden presidential portrait (cropped).jpg Donald Trump official portrait (cropped).jpg
Nominee Joe Biden Donald Trump
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Delaware Florida
Running mate Kamala Harris Mike Pence
Electoral vote200
Popular vote3,458,2293,377,674
Percentage50.01%48.84%

Pennsylvania Presidential Election Results 2020.svg
Pennsylvania Presidential Results 2020 by Municipality.svg

President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

The 2020 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. [2] Pennsylvania voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Pennsylvania has 20 electoral votes in the Electoral College. [3]

Contents

Although Trump had won the state in 2016 by a narrow margin of 0.72%, Biden was able to reclaim the state, winning it by a similarly narrow 1.17% margin. Because of the way the state counted in-person ballots first, Trump started with a wide lead on election night. However, over the next few days, Biden greatly closed the margin due to outstanding votes from Democratic-leaning areas, most notably Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, as well as mail-in ballots from all parts of the state which strongly favored him. On the morning of November 6, election-calling organization Decision Desk HQ forecast that Biden had won Pennsylvania's 20 electoral votes, and with them the election. [4] The following morning, November 7, during a Trump campaign press conference outside a Philadelphia landscaping business, [5] nearly all major news organizations followed suit and called Pennsylvania for Biden, proclaiming him President-elect. [6]

One key to Biden's success in the state was his improvement on Hillary Clinton's margins in the large Philadelphia-area suburban counties: he won Bucks by 3.60% more than Clinton did, Delaware by 4.38% more, Montgomery by 4.80% more, and Chester—which Mitt Romney had narrowly won just eight years prior—by 6.60% more. At the same time, he reclaimed two of the three large industrial counties which had voted Democratic for at least six consecutive elections before Trump flipped them in 2016: Erie and Northampton. While Trump prevailed in the third, Luzerne County, he did so by a reduced margin with respect to 2016; and Biden increased the margin of victory in his birth county, Lackawanna County, which Trump had nearly flipped in 2016. Biden halted the four-election Democratic slide in formerly traditionally Democratic Westmoreland County, where, before 2020, Al Gore had been the last Democrat to improve on the previous nominee's vote share (and which had given Trump his margin in the state in 2016). He also improved on Clinton's margins in Lehigh County by 2.9% and won Allegheny County with the largest percentage of the vote since 1988. However, Biden's vote share in Philadelphia County actually declined slightly compared to Hillary Clinton's, although he still outperformed either Al Gore in 2000 or John Kerry in 2004 in the county. Biden would also become the first Democratic candidate running for president to garner at least 100,000 votes in the Republican stronghold county of Lancaster. [7] [8] He also became the second presidential candidate since 1964, the last time the county voted for a Democrat, to get at least 40% of the vote. [8] This was due to the large number of votes Biden received from the city of Lancaster and a competitive margin in voting precincts in and around Lititz and Columbia. [9]

Despite Biden's victory, Pennsylvania weighed in for this election as 3.28% more Republican than the national average. This is the second consecutive presidential election in which Pennsylvania voted to the right of the nation. Previously, it had not done so since 1948.

With Ohio, Florida, and Iowa backing the losing candidate for the first time since 1960, 1992, and 2000 respectively, this election established Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan as the states with the longest bellwether streak still in effect today. The last time any of them voted against the winning candidate was 2004, when all three voted for the losing Democrat John Kerry.

Biden became the first Democrat to win the White House without carrying Luzerne County since Harry Truman in 1948. This was the first election since 1932 that the county voted for the statewide loser.

Primary elections

The primary elections were originally scheduled for April 28, 2020, also originally joining several northeastern states in holding primaries on the same date, including Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, New York, and Rhode Island. [10] On March 26, Pennsylvania joined several other states in moving its primary to June 2 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. [11]

Republican primary

Even though the Republican National Committee mailed Pennsylvania voters encouraging mail-in voting, describing it as a "convenient and secure” option, most Republicans expressed opposition to the prospect. Earlier, the Republican-controlled House blocked a proposal to mail every Pennsylvanian a mail-in ballot application. This was in response to President Trump's skepticism of the practice, expressing concern mail-in voting may result in voter fraud that would potentially benefit the Democratic Party. [12]

2020 Pennsylvania Republican presidential primary [13]
CandidateVotes %Delegates [14]
Donald Trump 1,053,61692.1%34
Bill Weld 69,4276.1%0
Rocky De La Fuente 20,4561.8%0
Total1,143,499100%34

Trump was declared the winner in the Republican primary, and received all of the state's 34 pledged delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention (the state also has 54 unpledged delegates). [14]

Democratic primary

2020 Pennsylvania Democratic presidential primary [15]
CandidateVotes %Delegates [16]
Joe Biden 1,264,62479.26151
Bernie Sanders (withdrawn)287,83418.0435
Tulsi Gabbard (withdrawn)43,0502.70
Total1,595,508100%186

Green Caucus

The Green Caucus was held during April 2020 and was won by Howie Hawkins. [17]

General election

Final predictions

SourceRanking
The Cook Political Report [18] Lean D (flip)
Inside Elections [19] Lean D (flip)
Sabato's Crystal Ball [20] Lean D (flip)
Politico [21] Lean D (flip)
RCP [22] Tossup
Niskanen [23] Likely D (flip)
CNN [24] Lean D (flip)
The Economist [25] Likely D (flip)
CBS News [26] Lean D (flip)
270towin [27] Lean D (flip)
ABC News [28] Lean D (flip)
NPR [29] Lean D (flip)
NBC News [30] Lean D (flip)
538 [31] Likely D (flip)

Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Donald
Trump

Republican
Other/
Undecided
[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
270 to Win October 22 – November 2, 2020November 3, 202049.4%45.7%4.9%
Real Clear Politics October 29 – November 2, 2020November 3, 202048.7%47.5%3.8%
FiveThirtyEight until November 2, 2020November 3, 202050.2%45.6%4.2%
Average49.4%46.3%4.3%Biden +3.1

2020 polls

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump

Republican
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Jo
Jorgensen

Libertarian
Howie
Hawkins

Green
Other Undecided
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. Nov 1–2499 (LV)± 4.3%49% [lower-alpha 3] 48%1%-0% [lower-alpha 4] 0%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 20 – Nov 26,045 (LV)± 2%47% [lower-alpha 5] 52%--
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports Oct 31 – Nov 1800 (LV)± 3.5%47% [lower-alpha 3] 50%--1% [lower-alpha 6]
Research Co. Oct 31 – Nov 1450 (LV)± 4.6%46%52%--2% [lower-alpha 7] 4%
AYTM/Aspiration Oct 30 – Nov 1340 (LV)49%51%--
Change Research/CNBC Oct 29 – Nov 1699 (LV)± 3.71%46%50%2%-2%
Marist College/NBC Oct 29 – Nov 1772 (LV)± 4.4%46%51%--1%2%
Monmouth University Oct 28 – Nov 1502(RV)± 4.4%45%50%1%-0% [lower-alpha 8] 4%
502 (LV)44% [lower-alpha 9] 51%--
45% [lower-alpha 10] 50%--
Swayable Archived November 13, 2020, at the Wayback Machine Oct 27 – Nov 11,107 (LV)± 3.9%48%50%2%-
Data for Progress Oct 27 – Nov 11,417 (LV)± 2.6%45%52%2%0%0% [lower-alpha 11]
Ipsos/Reuters Oct 27 – Nov 1673 (LV)± 4.3%45% [lower-alpha 12] 51%1%1%2% [lower-alpha 13]
44% [lower-alpha 14] 51%--3% [lower-alpha 15] 2%
46% [lower-alpha 16] 52%--2% [lower-alpha 17]
Trafalgar Oct 30–311,062 (LV)± 2.93%48%46%2%-1% [lower-alpha 18] 4%
Frederick Polls/Compete Everywhere [upper-alpha 1] Oct 30–31879 (LV)± 3%48%52%--
Insider Advantage/Center for American Greatness [upper-alpha 2] Oct 30–31500 (LV)± 4.4%48.7%47.4%1.3%-2.6%
Siena College/NYT Upshot Oct 26–311,862 (LV)± 2.4%43%49%2%-0% [lower-alpha 19] 5% [lower-alpha 20]
Morning Consult Oct 22–312,686 (LV)± 2%43%52%--
Emerson College Oct 29–30823 (LV)± 3.3%47% [lower-alpha 3] 52%--2% [lower-alpha 7]
AtlasIntel Oct 29–30672 (LV)± 4%50%49%--2%
Targoz Market Research/PollSmart Oct 25–30998 (LV)42%56%--2% [lower-alpha 21]
Public Policy Polling/American Bridge PAC [upper-alpha 3] Oct 28–291,012 (V)45%52%--3%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Oct 26–292,125 (LV)45%50%1%-1%3%
Harvard-Harris/The Hill Oct 26–29901 (LV)46%51%--3%
ABC/Washington Post Oct 24–29824 (LV)± 4%44%51%3%-0% [lower-alpha 22] 1%
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Oct 23–28419 (LV)± 5.5%44%49%--4% [lower-alpha 23] 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 1–2810,599 (LV)± 1.5%46%52%---
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ Archived October 29, 2020, at the Wayback Machine Oct 25–27800 (LV)± 3.5%45% [lower-alpha 12] 51%--2%2%
44% [lower-alpha 24] 52%--2%2%
47% [lower-alpha 25] 49%--2%2%
Quinnipiac University Oct 23–271,324 (LV)± 2.7%44%51%--1% [lower-alpha 18] 4%
Swayable Oct 23–26491 (LV)± 6%46%52%2%-
Civiqs/Daily Kos Oct 23–261,145 (LV)± 3%45%52%--2% [lower-alpha 7] 1%
Ipsos/Reuters Oct 20–26655 (LV)± 4.4%44% [lower-alpha 12] 51%3%0%1% [lower-alpha 26]
45% [lower-alpha 14] 50%--3% [lower-alpha 15] 2%
Insider Advantage/Center for American Greatness [upper-alpha 2] Oct 25400 (LV)± 4.9%48.5%45.5%3.3%-2.8%
Trafalgar Group Oct 24–251,076 (LV)± 2.91%48%48%2%-1% [lower-alpha 18] 1%
Wick Surveys Oct 24–251,000 (LV)± 3.1%49%47%--
Franklin & Marshall College Oct 19–25558 (LV)± 5%44%50%2%-1% [lower-alpha 27] 3%
Univision/University of Houston/Latino
Decisions/North Star Opinion Research
Oct 17–25723 (RV)± 3.64%45%50%--3% [lower-alpha 28] 2%
Gravis Marketing Oct 23602 (LV)± 4%44%51%--5%
Public Policy Polling/American Bridge PAC [upper-alpha 4] Oct 21–22980 (V)46%51%--4%
Civiqs/Dan Hopkins Oct 17–211,577 (A)3%46%52%--2%
YouGov/University of Wisconsin-Madison Oct 13–21669 (LV)± 4.45%44%52%--3% [lower-alpha 29]
Citizen Data Oct 17–201,000 (LV)± 3.1%39%44%9%0%1%7%
CNN/SSRS [ permanent dead link ]Oct 15–20843 (LV)± 4%43%53%2%-1% [lower-alpha 30] 1%
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Archived November 3, 2020, at the Wayback Machine Oct 13–20416 (LV)± 5.5%44%51%--2% [lower-alpha 31] 4%
Morning Consult Oct 11–202,563 (LV)± 1.9%43%52%--
Fox News Oct 18–191,045 (LV)± 3%45%50%1%-1% [lower-alpha 32] 2%
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports Oct 18–19800 (LV)± 3.5%47%50%--2% [lower-alpha 17] 3%
Quinnipiac University Oct 16–191,241 (LV)± 2.8%43%51%--1% [lower-alpha 18] 5%
Change Research/CNBC Oct 16–19574 (LV) [lower-alpha 33] 47%49%--
Suffolk University/USA Today Oct 15–19500 (LV)± 4.4%42%49%1%-4% [lower-alpha 34] 4%
Ipsos/Reuters Oct 13–19653 (LV)± 4.4%45% [lower-alpha 12] 49%2%0%3% [lower-alpha 35]
45% [lower-alpha 14] 49%--3% [lower-alpha 15] 4%
Trafalgar Group/Restoration PAC [upper-alpha 5] Oct 13–151,041 (LV)± 2.96%46%48%3%-2% [lower-alpha 7] 2%
HarrisX/The Hill Oct 12–151,289 (LV)46%51%--
Insider Advantage/Center for American Greatness Archived October 17, 2020, at the Wayback Machine [upper-alpha 2] Oct 12–13400 (LV)± 4.9%43%46%2%-9%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Oct 10–131,289 (LV)43% [lower-alpha 33] 51%1%0%
Trafalgar Group Oct 10–121,034 (LV)± 2.97%45%47%3%-3% [lower-alpha 28] 2%
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ Archived October 14, 2020, at the Wayback Machine Oct 7–12800 (LV)43% [lower-alpha 12] 49%1%1%6%
42% [lower-alpha 24] 50%1%1%6%
45% [lower-alpha 25] 47%1%1%6%
Civiqs/Rust Belt Rising [upper-alpha 6] Oct 8–11600 (LV)± 4.2%45%52%--2% [lower-alpha 7] 1%
Ipsos/Reuters Oct 6–11622 (LV)± 4.5%45% [lower-alpha 12] 51%1%0%2% [lower-alpha 36]
44% [lower-alpha 14] 51%--1% [lower-alpha 37] 4%
Morning Consult Oct 2–112,610 (LV)± 1.9%44%52%--
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Oct 9–101,145 (LV)44% [lower-alpha 33] 49%1%-
Whitman Insight Strategies Oct 5–9517 (LV)± 4.3%46%51%--1% [lower-alpha 18] 3%
Baldwin Wallace University Sep 30 – Oct 81,140 (LV)± 3.1%45%50%1%0%0% [lower-alpha 38] 4%
YouGov/CCES Archived November 1, 2020, at the Wayback Machine Sep 29 – Oct 72,703 (LV)44%52%--
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Oct 4–6927 (LV)± 3.22%42%49%1%-1% [lower-alpha 39] 7%
Emerson College Oct 4–5688 (LV)± 3.7%47% [lower-alpha 3] 51%--2% [lower-alpha 7]
Quinnipiac University Oct 1–51,211 (LV)± 2.8%41%54%--1% [lower-alpha 18] 3%
Ipsos/Reuters Sep 29 – Oct 5605 (LV)± 4.5%45%50%--2% [lower-alpha 40] 3%
Change Research/CNBC Oct 2–4468 (LV)46%50%--
Monmouth University Sep 30 – Oct 4500 (RV)± 4.4%42%54%1%-0% [lower-alpha 8] 2%
500 (LV)43% [lower-alpha 9] 54%--
45% [lower-alpha 10] 53%--
YouGov/CBS Sep 30 – Oct 21,287 (LV)± 3.2%44%51%--2% [lower-alpha 41] 5%
Siena College/NYT Upshot Sep 30 – Oct 2706 (LV)± 4.1%42%49%3%-0% [lower-alpha 19] 5% [lower-alpha 20]
SurveyMonkey/Axios Sep 1–304,613 (LV)46%52%--2%
ABC News/Washington Post Sep 21–26567 (LV)± 5.0%45%54%--0% [lower-alpha 42] 1%
Siena College/NYT Upshot Sep 25–27711 (LV)± 4.3%40%49%2%-0% [lower-alpha 19] 8% [lower-alpha 20]
TIPP/The Federalist Sep 24–26774 (LV)± 3.6%45%50%--1% [lower-alpha 43] 4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Sep 23–251,015 (LV)± 3.08%44%50%0%1% [lower-alpha 39] 5%
Fox News Sep 20–23856 (LV)± 3%44%51%2%1% [lower-alpha 32] 2%
910 (RV)± 3%43%51%2%2% [lower-alpha 44] 3%
Baldwin Wallace University Sep 9–221,012 (LV)± 3.6%45%47%2%0%1% [lower-alpha 45] 5%
Trafalgar Group/Restoration PAC [upper-alpha 5] Sep 18–211,006 (LV)± 2.99%46%48%1%1%2% [lower-alpha 7] 2%
YouGov/UW-Madison Elections Research
Center/Wisconsin State Journal
Sep 10–21642 (LV)45%49%--
Change Research/CNBC Sep 18–20579 (LV)45%49%--
Franklin & Marshall College Sep 14–20480 (LV)± 7.8%42%48%--
Hart Research Associates/Human Rights Campaign [ permanent dead link ] [upper-alpha 7] Sep 17–19400 (LV)± 4.9%42%53%--
CPEC [upper-alpha 8] Sep 15–17830 (LV)± 2.3%45%50%--1% [lower-alpha 46] 4%
Trafalgar Group (R) Sep 15–171,006 (LV)± 2.99%45%47%2%1%2% [lower-alpha 7] 2%
Ipsos/Reuters Sep 11–16611 (LV)± 4.5%46%49%--2% [lower-alpha 40] 4%
Civiqs/Rust Belt Rising [upper-alpha 6] Sep 11–15704 (RV)± 4.4%45%52%--1% [lower-alpha 18] 2%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Sep 12–141,036 (LV)± 3.04%44%49%1%1%0% [lower-alpha 47] 5%
Climate Nexus Sep 8–11659 (RV)± 4%43%48%--3% [lower-alpha 48] 6%
Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group/AARP Aug 28 – Sep 81,600 (LV)± 2.5%46%49%--1% [lower-alpha 49] 4%
Marist College/NBC News Aug 31 – Sep 7771 (LV)± 4.4%44%53%--1%2%
Morning Consult Aug 29 – Sep 72,227 (LV)± (2%-4%)45% [lower-alpha 50] 50%--
Change Research/CNBC Sep 4–6829 (LV)46%50%--4% [lower-alpha 51]
TargetSmart Archived October 4, 2020, at the Wayback Machine Sep 3–6835 (LV)± 3.4%44%51%--3%3%
Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. Aug 26 – Sep 4498 (LV)± 4.3%42%44%--6% [lower-alpha 52] 7%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Aug 30 – Sep 31,053 (LV)± 3.02%43%48%1%1%1% [lower-alpha 39] 7%
Quinnipiac Archived September 3, 2020, at the Wayback Machine Aug 28 – Sep 11,235 (LV)± 3%44%52%--1% [lower-alpha 18] 3%
ALG Research/Progressive Policy Institute [upper-alpha 9] Aug 26 – Sep 1500 (LV)44%50%--
Monmouth University Aug 28–31400 (RV)± 4.9%45%49%2%0%1% [lower-alpha 53] 4%
400 (LV)46% [lower-alpha 54] 49%--2%3%
47% [lower-alpha 55] 48%--2%3%
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC [upper-alpha 5] Aug 26–31600 (LV)45%51%--4%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Aug 1–313,531 (LV)45%53%--2%
Morning Consult Aug 21–302,158 (LV)± (2%–4%)45%49%--
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports Aug 25–271,000 (LV)± 3%48% [lower-alpha 56] 48%--4% [lower-alpha 57]
GQR Research/Unite the Country PAC [upper-alpha 10] Aug 20–24971 (LV)± 4.4%43%52%--5%
Franklin & Marshall College Aug 17–24681 (RV)± 5.2%42% [lower-alpha 3] 50%--3% [lower-alpha 58] 7%
Change Research/CNBC Aug 21–23984 (LV)46%49%--
Global Strategy Group/Climate Power 2020
/League of Conservation Voters/Sierra Club
[upper-alpha 11]
Aug 13–19801 (RV)± 3.5%42% [lower-alpha 12] 50%2%1%5%
43% [lower-alpha 59] 53%--4%
Redfield and Wilton Strategies Aug 16–171,006 (LV)± 3.1%41%48%1%1%1% [lower-alpha 39] 8%
Civiqs/Rust Belt Rising [upper-alpha 6] Aug 13–17617 (RV)44%51%--3% [lower-alpha 28] 1%
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Aug 11–17416 (LV)± 5.5%45%49%--3% [lower-alpha 60] 3%
Morning Consult Aug 7–161,777 (LV)± (2%–4%)44%50%--
Emerson College Aug 8–10843 (LV)± 3.8%47% [lower-alpha 61] 53%--
Change Research/CNBC Aug 7–9456 (RV)44%48%--
YouGov/CBS Aug 4–71,211 (LV)± 3.7%43%49%--3% [lower-alpha 62] 5%
OnMessage Inc./Heritage Action [upper-alpha 12] Aug 2–4400 (LV)± 4.7%46%50%--4%
YouGov/University of Wisconsin-Madison Jul 27 – Aug 6742 (RV)± 4.9%41%50%--2% [lower-alpha 63] 5%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jul 1–314,208 (LV)48%50%--2%
Change Research/CNBC Jul 24–26382 (LV)46%48%--
Franklin & Marshall College Jul 20–26667 (RV)± 5.5%41%50%--2% [lower-alpha 17] 6%
Morning Consult Jul 17–262,092 (LV)± 2.1%42%50%--
Gravis Marketing Jul 22–241,006 (RV)± 3.1%45%48%--8%
Zogby Analytics Jul 21–23809 (RV)± 3.4%43%44%4%2%-8%
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC [upper-alpha 5] Jul 17–22600 (LV)45%51%--5%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Jul 19–211,016 (LV)41%48%1%0%2% [lower-alpha 64] 8%
Fox News Jul 18–20793 (RV)± 3.5%39%50%--5% [lower-alpha 65] 6%
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports/American Greatness PAC Archived July 31, 2020, at the Wayback Machine [upper-alpha 2] Jul 15–16750 (LV)± 4%46%51%--2% [lower-alpha 17] 1%
Spry Strategies/American Principles Project [upper-alpha 13] Jul 11–16700 (LV)± 3.7%48%47%--5%
Monmouth University Jul 9–13401 (RV)± 4.9%40%53%--3% [lower-alpha 66] 4%
401 (LV) 42% [lower-alpha 54] 52%--3%3%
44% [lower-alpha 55] 51%--2%3%
Change Research/CNBC Jul 10–12743 (LV)42%50%--
Trafalgar Group Jun 29 – Jul 21,062 (LV)± 2.92%43%48%--6% [lower-alpha 67] 3%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jun 8–302,184 (LV)48%50%--2%
Change Research/CNBC Jun 26–28760 (LV) [lower-alpha 33] 44%50%--
Susquehanna Polling/Fox 43 Jun 15–23715 (LV)41%46%--5%8%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies Jun 14–161,125 (LV)± 2.92%39%49%1%1%1% [lower-alpha 68] 9%
Siena College/NYT Upshot Jun 8–16651 (RV)± 4.2%40%50%--3% [lower-alpha 69] 6%
Change Research/CNBC Jun 12–14491 (LV) [lower-alpha 33] 46%49%--3% [lower-alpha 70]
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC [upper-alpha 5] Jun 8–11600 (LV)± 4.0%42%54%--4%
Civiqs/Dan Hopkins Jun 6–111,221 (A)3.6%46%49%--5%
Civiqs/Dan Hopkins May 30 – Jun 22,045 (A)2.4%46%49%--5%
Change Research/CNBC May 29–31579 (LV) [lower-alpha 33] 50%46%--2%2%
Morning Consult May 17–262,120 (LV)44% [lower-alpha 33] 48%--
Redfield & Wilton Strategies May 10–14963 (LV)± 3.2%39%48%--2% [lower-alpha 71] 11%
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC [upper-alpha 5] May 9–13600 (LV)± 3.0%51%46%--4%
Harper Polling (R) Archived May 1, 2020, at the Wayback Machine Apr 21–26644 (LV)± 3.9%43%49%--8%
Public Policy Polling [upper-alpha 14] Apr 20–211,251 (RV)44%51%--5%
Fox News Apr 18–21803 (RV)± 3.5%42%50%--
Ipsos Apr 15–20578 (RV)± 5.0%40%46%--
Suquehanna Research/Fox 43 Apr 14–20693 (LV)42%48%--
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC [upper-alpha 5] Apr 16–18600 (RV)± 3.0%47%47%--6%
Civiqs/Dan Hopkins Apr 4–81,912 (A)2.5%47%47%--6%
Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakes Mar 17–25973 (RV)± 3.9%47%45%--9%
Change Research Mar 21–23510 (LV)50%47%--4%
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC [upper-alpha 5] Mar 19–21600 (RV)47%45%--
Civiqs/Dan Hopkins Mar 14–181,589 (A)2.7%48%46%--6%
YouGov/Yahoo News Mar 6–8725 (RV)40%46%--5% [lower-alpha 72] 8%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Archived December 9, 2019, at the Wayback Machine Mar 5–7533 (RV)± 5.3%45%44%--
Civiqs/Dan Hopkins Feb 27 – Mar 32,462 (A)2.2%48%46%--7%
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Feb 12–20424 (RV)± 5.5%47%47%--2%4%
YouGov Feb 11–201,171 (RV)± 4.0%45%46%--
Quinnipiac University Archived May 13, 2020, at the Wayback Machine Feb 12–18849 (RV)± 3.4%42%50%--6% [lower-alpha 73] 3%
Expedition Strategies/Progressive Policies Institute Feb 6–18500 (RV)42%47%--11%

2017–2019 polls

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump

Republican
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Other Undecided
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Archived December 9, 2019, at the Wayback Machine Dec 3–5, 2019598 (LV)± 4.3%45%41%8% [lower-alpha 74] 6% [lower-alpha 20]
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Nov 4–9, 2019410 (RV)± 6.0%43%52%4%2%
Siena College/NYT Upshot Oct 13–25, 2019661 (LV)± 4.4%45%46%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Archived September 12, 2019, at the Wayback Machine Sep 7–9, 2019527 (LV)± 4.2%41%45%14%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Jun 11–13, 2019565 (LV)± 4.2%42%43%15%
Quinnipiac University May 9–14, 2019978 (RV)± 4.2%42%53%1%3%
WPA Intelligence Apr 27–30, 2019200 (LV)± 6.9%45%46%8%
Emerson College Mar 26–28, 2019808 (RV)± 3.4%45%55%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Archived April 3, 2019, at the Wayback Machine Mar 19–21, 2019632 (LV)± 4.0%43%50%4%

Former candidates and hypothetical polling

Former candidates

Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Michael
Bloomberg (D)
OtherUndecided
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Feb 12–20, 2020424 (RV)± 5.5 %48%45%2%5%
Quinnipiac University Archived May 13, 2020, at the Wayback Machine Feb 12–18, 2020849 (RV)±3.4%42%48%6% [lower-alpha 75] 3%
Expedition Strategies/Progressive Policies Institute Feb 6–18, 2020500 (RV)39%48%13%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Archived December 9, 2019, at the Wayback Machine Dec 3–5, 2019598 (LV)± 4.3%45%41%9% [lower-alpha 76] 5%

Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Pete
Buttigieg (D)
OtherUndecided
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Feb 12–20, 2020424 (RV)± 5.5 %46%45%3%5%
Expedition Strategies/Progressive Policies Institute Feb 6–18, 2020500 (RV)40%46%14%
YouGov Feb 11–20, 20201,171 (RV)±4.0%44%44%
Quinnipiac University Archived May 13, 2020, at the Wayback Machine Feb 12–18, 2020849 (RV)±3.4%43%47%8% [lower-alpha 77] 2%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Archived December 9, 2019, at the Wayback Machine Dec 3–5, 2019598 (LV)± 4.3%46%40%7% [lower-alpha 78] 7% [lower-alpha 20]
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Jun 11–13, 2019565 (LV)± 4.2%45%32%23%
Quinnipiac University May 9–14, 2019978 (RV)± 4.2%44%45%4%6%

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Kamala
Harris (D)
OtherUndecided
Quinnipiac University May 9–14, 2019978 (RV)± 4.2%45%45%3%5%
Emerson College Mar 26–28, 2019808 (RV)± 3.4%49%51%

Donald Trump vs. Amy Klobuchar

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Amy
Klobuchar (D)
OtherUndecided
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Feb 12–20, 2020424 (RV)± 5.5 %45%44%3%8%
YouGov Feb 11–20, 20201,171 (RV)±4.0%43%43%
Quinnipiac University Archived May 13, 2020, at the Wayback Machine Feb 12–18, 2020849 (RV)±3.4%42%49%6% [lower-alpha 73] 4%

Donald Trump vs. Beto O'Rourke

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Beto
O'Rourke (D)
OtherUndecided
Quinnipiac University May 9–14, 2019978 (RV)± 4.2%46%44%4%5%
Emerson College Mar 26–28, 2019808 (RV)± 3.4%49%51%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Archived April 3, 2019, at the Wayback Machine Mar 19–21, 2019632 (LV)± 4.0%47%40%8%

Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Bernie
Sanders (D)
OtherUndecided
Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakes Mar 17–25, 2020973 (RV)± 3.9%48%42%10%
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC [upper-alpha 5] Mar 19–21, 2020600 (RV)49%43%
YouGov/Yahoo News Mar 6–8, 2020725 (RV)41%43%6% [lower-alpha 79] 10%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Archived December 9, 2019, at the Wayback Machine Mar 5–7, 2020533 (RV)± 5.3 %46%42%
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Feb 12–20, 2020424 (RV)± 5.5 %46%49%3%3%
YouGov Feb 11–20, 20201,171 (RV)±4.0%45%47%
Quinnipiac University Archived May 13, 2020, at the Wayback Machine Feb 12–18, 2020849 (RV)±3.4%44%48%5% [lower-alpha 80] 1%
Expedition Strategies/Progressive Policies Institute Feb 6–18, 2020500 (RV)43%45%12%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Archived December 9, 2019, at the Wayback Machine Dec 3–5, 2019598 (LV)± 4.3%48%37%8% [lower-alpha 81] 6% [lower-alpha 20]
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Nov 4–9, 2019410 (RV)± 6.0%45%50%4%1%
NYT Upshot/Siena College Oct 13–25, 2019661 (LV)± 4.4%45%44%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Archived September 12, 2019, at the Wayback Machine Sep 7–9, 2019527 (LV)± 4.2%42%44%14%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Jun 11–13, 2019565 (LV)± 4.2%44%41%15%
Quinnipiac University May 9–14, 2019978 (RV)± 4.2%43%50%2%3%
Tulchin Research (D) [upper-alpha 15] Apr 14–18, 2019400 (LV)± 4.9%43%51%
Emerson College Mar 26–28, 2019808 (RV)± 3.4%45%55%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Archived April 3, 2019, at the Wayback Machine Mar 19–21, 2019632 (LV)± 4.0%44%44%8%

Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Elizabeth
Warren (D)
OtherUndecided
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Feb 12–20, 2020424 (RV)± 5.5 %47%47%4%3%
YouGov Feb 11–20, 20201,171 (RV)±4.0%45%45%
Quinnipiac University Archived May 13, 2020, at the Wayback Machine Feb 12–18, 2020849 (RV)±3.4%44%47%8% [lower-alpha 77] 2%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Archived December 9, 2019, at the Wayback Machine Dec 3–5, 2019598 (LV)± 4.3%47%40%8% [lower-alpha 81] 5% [lower-alpha 20]
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Nov 4–9, 2019410 (RV)± 6.0%45%50%4%1%
NYT Upshot/Siena College Oct 13–25, 2019661 (LV)± 4.4%46%44%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Archived September 12, 2019, at the Wayback Machine Sep 7–9, 2019527 (LV)± 4.2%41%43%16%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Jun 11–13, 2019565 (LV)± 4.2%45%34%21%
Quinnipiac University May 9–14, 2019978 (RV)± 4.2%44%47%3%4%
Emerson College Mar 26–28, 2019808 (RV)± 3.4%48%52%
Zogby Analytics Aug 17–23, 2017813 (LV)± 3.4%38%46%16%
Hypothetical polling

Donald Trump vs. Generic Democrat

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Generic
Democrat (D)
Undecided
Baldwin Wallace University/Oakland University/Ohio Northern University Mar 17–25, 2020997 (RV)± 3.7%48.6% [lower-alpha 82] 49.2%2.1% [lower-alpha 83]
Expedition Strategies/Progressive Policies Institute Feb 6–18, 2020500 (RV)38%51%11%
Baldwin Wallace University/Oakland University/Ohio Northern University Jan 8–20, 20201,037 (RV)± 3.2%39.7% [lower-alpha 82] 49.5%10.7%
KFF/Cook Political Report Sep 23 – Oct 15, 2019752 (RV)± 4%29%40%22%

Donald Trump vs. Generic Opponent

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 2]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Generic
Opponent
Undecided
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Oct 23–28, 2020419 (LV)± 5.5%42%54%4%
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Archived November 3, 2020, at the Wayback Machine Oct 13–20, 2020416 (LV)± 5.5%44%51%5%
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Aug 11–17, 2020416 (LV)± 5.5%44%53%3%
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Feb 12–20, 2020424 (RV)± 5.5%42%54%4%
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Nov 4–9, 2019410 (RV)± 6.0%42%57%2%
F&M/PoliticsPA Mar 18–24, 2019540 (RV)± 5.5%36%61% [lower-alpha 84] 4%

Electoral slates

These slates of electors were nominated by each party in order to vote in the Electoral College should their candidates win the state: [32]

Donald Trump and Mike Pence
Republican Party
Joe Biden and Kamala Harris
Democratic Party
Jo Jorgensen and Spike Cohen
Libertarian Party
  • Kyle Burton
  • Henry Conoly
  • Daniel Cooper
  • Thomas Eckman
  • Greg Faust
  • Kevin Gaughen
  • Willie Harmon
  • Ken Krawchuk
  • Brandon Magoon
  • Roy Minet
  • Paul Nicotera
  • Paul Rizzo
  • Richard Schwartzman
  • William Sloane
  • Kathleen Smith
  • Jake Towne
  • Glenn Tuttle
  • Stephen Wharhaftig
  • John Waldenberger
  • Daniel Wassmer

Results

Results by metropolitan area The 2020 United States Presidential Election in Pennsylvania by Metropolitan Area.svg
Results by metropolitan area

9,098,998 [33] residents registered to vote by the voter registration deadline on October 15, which had been extended from its original date on October 13 by court order.

2020 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania [34] [35]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic 3,458,229 50.01 +2.55
Republican 3,377,67448.84+0.66
Libertarian 79,3801.15–1.23
Total votes6,915,283 100% +12.16
Democratic win

Results by county

County [36] Joe Biden

Democratic

Donald Trump

Republican

Jo Jorgensen

Libertarian

MarginTotal votes
#%#%#%#%
Adams 18,20732.20%37,52366.37%8101.43%-19,316-34.16%56,540
Allegheny 429,06559.61%282,32439.23%8,3441.16%147,84620.48%719,733
Armstrong 8,45723.25%27,48975.58%4241.17%-19,032-52.33%36,370
Beaver 38,12240.50%54,75958.18%1,2411.32%-16,637-17.68%94,122
Bedford 4,36715.84%23,02583.50%1820.66%-18,658-67.67%27,574
Berks 92,89545.20%109,73653.39%2,9091.42%-16,841-8.19%205,540
Blair 17,63627.73%45,30671.24%6531.03%-27,670-43.51%63,595
Bradford 8,04626.68%21,60071.62%5131.70%-13,554-44.94%30,159
Bucks 204,71251.66%187,36747.29%4,1551.05%17,3454.38%396,234
Butler 37,50833.10%74,35965.63%1,4381.27%-36,851-32.52%113,305
Cambria 21,73030.79%48,08568.13%7591.08%-26,355-37.34%70,574
Cameron 63426.05%1,77172.76%291.19%-1,137-46.71%2,434
Carbon 11,21233.34%21,98465.37%4331.29%-10,772-32.03%33,629
Centre 40,05551.69%36,37246.94%1,0661.38%3,6834.75%77,493
Chester 182,37257.99%128,56540.88%3,5651.13%53,80717.11%314,502
Clarion 4,67824.00%14,57874.79%2371.22%-9,900-50.79%19,493
Clearfield 9,67324.54%29,20374.08%5461.39%-19,530-49.54%39,422
Clinton 5,50231.22%11,90267.53%2211.25%-6,400-36.31%17,625
Columbia 10,53233.79%20,09864.48%5411.74%-9,566-30.69%31,171
Crawford 12,92430.77%28,55967.99%5211.24%-15,635-37.22%42,004
Cumberland 62,24543.96%77,21254.53%2,1381.51%-14,967-10.57%141,595
Dauphin 78,98353.60%66,40845.06%1,9771.34%12,5758.53%147,368
Delaware 206,42362.95%118,53236.15%2,9760.91%87,89126.80%327,931
Elk 4,52226.75%12,14071.81%2441.44%-7,618-45.06%16,906
Erie 68,286