2020 United States presidential election in Maryland

Main article: 2020 United States presidential election

2020 United States presidential election in Maryland

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Turnout	74.63% 2.65 pp [1]
Nominee Joe Biden Donald Trump Party Democratic Republican Home state Delaware Florida Running mate Kamala Harris Mike Pence Electoral vote 10 0 Popular vote 1,985,023 976,414 Percentage 65.36% 32.15%
County results Congressional district results Precinct results Biden   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90%   90-100% Trump   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90%   90-100%
President before election Donald Trump Republican Elected President Joe Biden Democratic

The 2020 United States presidential election in Maryland was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. ^[2] Maryland voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Maryland has 10 electoral votes in the Electoral College. ^[3]

Biden easily carried Maryland with 65.4% of the vote to Trump's 32.2% (a margin of 33.2%, much improved from Hillary Clinton's 26.4% in 2016). Prior to the election, all news organizations handicapping the election considered Maryland a state that Biden would carry comfortably. Maryland has long been a Democratic-leaning state, and no Republican presidential candidate has won it since George H. W. Bush in 1988. Biden carried Black-majority Prince George's County and Baltimore City with almost 90% of the vote, and the suburban counties of Montgomery, Howard, and Baltimore with over 60% each. While Republicans typically win more counties by running up margins in more rural western Maryland and the Eastern Shore, the Baltimore-Washington area casts over three-fourths of the state's vote, making it difficult for a Republican to carry Maryland. While Trump won 14 of Maryland's 24 county-level jurisdictions, Biden won the six largest, all of which are part of the Baltimore-Washington area–Montgomery, Prince George's, Anne Arundel, Howard and Baltimore counties and Baltimore City–by over a million votes collectively, more than enough to carry the state.

Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Biden's principal strength in Maryland came from winning 94% of African-Americans, who represented 28% of the electorate. 74% of voters believed the criminal justice system needed a complete overhaul or major changes, and they opted for Biden by 73%. Biden won all other major demographic groups, including 52% of Whites (the first time since 1964 that a Democratic candidate won the white vote in Maryland), 69% of Latinos, 79% of Jews, 54% of Protestants, and 51% of Catholics. ^[4]

Biden flipped Frederick County in the Washington, D.C., exurbs and Talbot County on the Eastern Shore Democratic for the first time since 1964. ^[5] He also flipped Kent County on the Eastern Shore, home of Washington College, Democratic for the first time since 2008. In another college county on the Eastern Shore, Wicomico (home of Salisbury University), Trump won but was held below 50% of the vote for the first time for a Republican nominee since 1996.

Primary elections

The primary elections were originally scheduled for April 28, 2020. On March 17, they were moved to June 2 due to concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic. ^[6]

Republican primary

Donald Trump won the Republican primary, and thus received all of the state's 38 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention. ^[7]

Democratic primary

This section is an excerpt from 2020 Maryland Democratic presidential primary § MDresults.[ edit ]

2020 Maryland Democratic presidential primary ^[8]

Candidate	Votes	%	Delegates [9]
Joe Biden	879,753	83.72	96
Bernie Sanders (withdrawn)	81,939	7.80
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn)	27,134	2.58
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn)	7,180	0.68
Michael Bloomberg (withdrawn)	6,773	0.64
Andrew Yang (withdrawn)	6,670	0.63
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn)	5,685	0.54
Tulsi Gabbard (withdrawn)	4,226	0.40
Cory Booker (withdrawn)	2,662	0.25
Michael Bennet (withdrawn)	2,291	0.22
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn)	897	0.09
Julian Castro (withdrawn)	760	0.07
Tom Steyer (withdrawn)	671	0.06
Deval Patrick (withdrawn)	406	0.04
Uncommitted	23,726	2.26
Total	1,050,773	100%	96

Green primary

2020 Maryland Green Party primary [10] [11]
Candidate	Round 1		Round 2		Round 3		Round 4
	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%	Votes	%
Howie Hawkins	34	53.1%	34	61.8%	34	64.15%	34	68%
Dario Hunter	16	25%	16	29.1%	16	30.18%	16	32%
Kent Mesplay	2	3.1%	3	5.5%	3	5.66%	Eliminated
Write-ins	2	3.1%	2	3.6%	Eliminated
Sedinam Moyowasiza-Curry	1	1.6%	Eliminated
Empty ballot	9	14.1%	Eliminated
Total votes							64	100.0%

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report [12]	Safe D	September 10, 2020
Inside Elections [13]	Safe D	September 4, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball [14]	Safe D	July 14, 2020
Politico [15]	Safe D	September 8, 2020
RCP [16]	Safe D	August 3, 2020
Niskanen [17]	Safe D	July 26, 2020
CNN [18]	Safe D	August 3, 2020
The Economist [19]	Safe D	September 2, 2020
CBS News [20]	Likely D	August 16, 2020
270towin [21]	Safe D	August 2, 2020
ABC News [22]	Safe D	July 31, 2020
NPR [23]	Likely D	August 3, 2020
NBC News [24]	Safe D	August 6, 2020
538 [25]	Safe D	September 9, 2020

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other/ Undecided [lower-alpha 1]	Margin
270 to Win	October 7–26 2020	November 3, 2020	60.0%	31.7%	8.3%	Biden +28.3
Real Clear Politics	September 4 – October 24, 2020	November 3, 2020	60.3%	31.0%	8.7%	Biden +29.3
FiveThirtyEight	until November 2, 2020	November 3, 2020	63.1%	31.6%	5.3%	Biden +31.4
Average			61.1%	31.4%	7.4%	Biden +29.7

Polls

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Jo Jorgensen Libertarian	Howie Hawkins Green	Other	Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020	3,216 (LV)	± 2.5%	31% [lower-alpha 3]	66%	–	–	–	–
Swayable Archived November 27, 2020, at the Wayback Machine	Oct 23 – Nov 1, 2020	503 (LV)	± 5.7%	31%	67%	2%	0%	–	–
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Oct 1–28, 2020	5,820 (LV)	–	32%	66%	–	–	–	–
Gonzalez Maryland Poll	Oct 19–24, 2020	820 (RV)	± 3.5%	33%	58%	–	–	3% [lower-alpha 4]	6%
Goucher College	Sep 30 – Oct 4, 2020	776 (LV)	± 3.5%	30%	61%	2%	2%	3% [lower-alpha 5]	2%
Change Research/Our Voice Maryland	Sep 29 – Oct 1, 2020	650 (V)	± 4.55%	32%	61%	–	–	–	–
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Sep 1–30, 2020	2,364 (LV)	–	31%	67%	–	–	–	2%
OpinionWorks	Sep 4–11, 2020	753 (LV)	–	30%	62%	–	–	3% [lower-alpha 4]	5%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Aug 1–31, 2020	1,813 (LV)	–	31%	66%	–	–	–	3%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Jul 1–31, 2020	1,911 (LV)	–	32%	66%	–	–	–	2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Jun 8–30, 2020	1,175 (LV)	–	34%	64%	–	–	–	2%
Gonzalez Maryland Poll	May 19–23, 2020	810 (LV)	± 3.5%	31%	59%	–	–	–	6%
Goucher College	Feb 13–19, 2020	718 (LV)	± 3.6%	35%	60%	–	–	1% [lower-alpha 6]	4% [lower-alpha 7]

Former candidates

with Donald Trump and Michael Bloomberg Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size [lower-alpha 2] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Michael Bloomberg (D) Undecided Goucher College Feb 13–19, 2020 718 (LV) ± 3.6% 32% 59% – with Donald Trump and Pete Buttigieg Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size [lower-alpha 2] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Pete Buttigieg (D) Undecided Goucher College Feb 13–19, 2020 718 (LV) ± 3.6% 33% 58% – with Donald Trump and Tulsi Gabbard Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size [lower-alpha 2] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Tulsi Gabbard (D) Undecided Goucher College Feb 13–19, 2020 718 (LV) ± 3.6% 35% 52% – with Donald Trump and Amy Klobuchar Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size [lower-alpha 2] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Amy Klobuchar (D) Undecided Goucher College Feb 13–19, 2020 718 (LV) ± 3.6% 32% 59% – with Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size [lower-alpha 2] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Bernie Sanders (D) Undecided Goucher College Feb 13–19, 2020 718 (LV) ± 3.6% 34% 61% – with Donald Trump and Tom Steyer Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size [lower-alpha 2] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Tom Steyer (D) Undecided Goucher College Feb 13–19, 2020 718 (LV) ± 3.6% 36% 54% – with Donald Trump and Elizabeth Warren Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size [lower-alpha 2] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Elizabeth Warren (D) Undecided Goucher College Feb 13–19, 2020 718 (LV) ± 3.6% 35% 59% –

Hypothetical polling
with Donald Trump and Generic Democrat Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size [lower-alpha 2] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Generic Democrat Other Undecided Goucher College Sep 13–18, 2019 548 (RV) ± 4.2% 28% 65% 3% [lower-alpha 8] 4% DFM Research Jan 19–22, 2019 500 (A) ± 4.4% 31% 53% – 16%

Results

2020 United States presidential election in Maryland ^[26]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Joe Biden Kamala Harris	1,985,023	65.36%	+5.03%
	Republican	Donald Trump Mike Pence	976,414	32.15%	-1.76%
	Libertarian	Jo Jorgensen Spike Cohen	33,488	1.10%	-1.76%
	Green	Howie Hawkins Angela Walker	15,799	0.52%	-0.77%
	Bread and Roses	Jerome Segal John de Graaf	5,884	0.19%	N/A
	Write-in		20,422	0.67%	-0.94%
Total votes			3,037,030	100%

Results by county

County	Joe Biden Democratic		Donald Trump Republican		Various candidates Other parties		Margin		Total votes cast
	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%
Allegany	9,158	29.89%	20,886	68.16%	597	1.95%	-11,728	-38.27%	30,641
Anne Arundel	172,823	55.82%	127,821	41.28%	8,973	2.90%	45,002	14.54%	309,617
Baltimore County	258,409	62.28%	146,202	35.24%	10,321	2.49%	112,207	27.04%	414,932
Baltimore City	207,260	87.28%	25,374	10.69%	4,827	2.03%	181,886	76.59%	237,461
Calvert	22,587	45.99%	25,346	51.61%	1,179	2.40%	-2,759	-5.62%	49,112
Caroline	5,095	32.26%	10,283	65.11%	416	2.63%	-5,188	-32.85%	15,794
Carroll	36,456	36.34%	60,218	60.02%	3,635	3.64%	-23,762	-23.68%	100,327
Cecil	16,809	35.42%	29,439	62.03%	1,214	2.56%	-12,630	-26.61%	47,462
Charles	62,171	69.47%	25,579	28.58%	1,748	1.95%	36,592	40.89%	89,498
Dorchester	6,857	42.92%	8,764	54.85%	356	2.23%	-1,907	-11.93%	15,977
Frederick	77,675	53.34%	63,682	43.73%	4,258	2.92%	13,993	9.61%	145,615
Garrett	3,281	21.02%	12,002	76.88%	328	2.10%	-8,721	-55.86%	15,611
Harford	63,095	42.58%	80,930	54.61%	4,161	2.81%	-17,835	-12.03%	148,186
Howard	129,433	70.70%	48,390	26.43%	5,239	2.86%	81,043	44.27%	183,062
Kent	5,329	49.37%	5,195	48.13%	270	2.50%	134	1.24%	10,794
Montgomery	419,569	78.61%	101,222	18.96%	12,952	2.43%	318,347	59.65%	533,743
Prince George's	379,208	89.26%	37,090	8.73%	8,557	2.01%	342,118	80.53%	424,855
Queen Anne's	10,709	35.35%	18,741	61.87%	840	2.77%	-8,032	-26.52%	30,290
St. Mary's	23,138	41.57%	30,826	55.38%	1,701	3.06%	-7,688	-13.81%	55,665
Somerset	4,241	41.80%	5,739	56.56%	167	1.65%	-1,498	-14.76%	10,147
Talbot	11,062	49.04%	10,946	48.53%	547	2.43%	116	0.51%	22,555
Washington	26,044	38.42%	40,224	59.35%	1,511	2.23%	-14,180	-20.93%	67,779
Wicomico	22,054	47.72%	22,944	49.65%	1,218	2.64%	-890	-1.93%	46,216
Worcester	12,560	39.63%	18,571	58.60%	560	1.77%	-6,011	-18.97%	31,691
Totals	1,985,023	65.36%	976,414	32.15%	75,593	2.49%	1,008,609	33.21%	3,037,030

Swing by county

Legend

•   Democratic — +10-12.5%
•   Democratic — +7.5-10%
•   Democratic — +5-7.5%
•   Democratic — +2.5-5%
•   Democratic — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +2.5-5%
•   Republican — +5-7.5%
•   Republican — +7.5-10%

Trend relative to the state by county

Legend

•   Democratic — +10-12.5%
•   Democratic — +7.5-10%
•   Democratic — +5-7.5%
•   Democratic — +2.5-5%
•   Democratic — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +2.5-5%
•   Republican — +5-7.5%
•   Republican — +7.5-10%

County flips

Legend

• Democratic   Hold   Gain from Republican

  Republican   Hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

• Frederick (largest municipality: Frederick)
• Kent (largest municipality: Chestertown)
• Talbot (largest municipality: Easton)

Results by congressional district

Biden won 7 of the state's 8 congressional districts. ^[27]

District	Biden	Trump	Representative
1st	39.1%	58.8%	Andy Harris
2nd	65.8%	32.4%	Dutch Ruppersberger
3rd	68.7%	29.4%	John Sarbanes
4th	79.1%	19.2%	Anthony Brown
5th	68.6%	29.7%	Steny Hoyer
6th	60.6%	37.5%	David Trone
7th	78.4%	20%	Kweisi Mfume
8th	69%	28.9%	Jamie Raskin

Analysis

Biden's performance was the strongest in Maryland for any candidate since Horatio Seymour's 67.2% in 1868. In terms of statewide vote share, Trump performed worse than any Republican since 1912, when the national Republican vote was split by former President Theodore Roosevelt's third-party run; even landslide losers Herbert Hoover in 1932, Alf Landon in 1936, and Barry Goldwater in 1964 managed higher vote shares than Trump's 32.15%. Apart from 1912, only in the antebellum elections of 1856 and 1860–when the Republican Party was not yet established in the slaveholding Old Line State–did the Republican nominee perform worse than Trump did in 2020. In this election, Maryland voted 28.75% to the left of the nation at-large. ^[28]

With the exception of racially polarized Somerset County, every county in the state swung to Biden from Hillary Clinton's performance in 2016; many swung Democratic by double digits. ^[29] The Republican presidential vote share has now declined for four elections in a row in the Old Line State, the longest such current run for the party in any state. It was also one of five states in the nation in which Biden's victory margin was larger than one million raw votes: the others being California, New York, Massachusetts and Illinois.

See also

• United States presidential elections in Maryland
• 2020 United States presidential election
• 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries
• 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries
• 2020 United States elections

Notes

1. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
2. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
3. Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
4. "Someone else" with 3%
5. "Refused" with 3%
6. "Other" with 1%; would not vote with 0%
7. Includes "Refused"
8. "Neither Democratic nor Republican; will vote third party" with 2%; "refused" with 1%

References

1. "Official Turnout (By Party and County)" (PDF).
2. Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?" . The Independent . Archived from the original on August 2, 2018. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
3. "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration . Retrieved January 3, 2019.
4. "Maryland Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN   0362-4331 . Retrieved November 9, 2020.
5. "County winners, 1836-2016". Google Docs. Retrieved November 15, 2020.
6. "Maryland postpones April 28 primary election over coronavirus". Politico. March 17, 2020.
7. "Maryland Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved June 3, 2020.
8. "2020 Presidential Primary Election Results". Maryland State Board of Elections. Retrieved October 14, 2020.
9. "Delegate Tracker". interactives.ap.org. Associated Press. Retrieved June 3, 2020.
10. "HOWIE HAWKINS WINS MARYLAND GREEN PARTY PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY". Maryland Green Party. May 31, 2020. Retrieved June 3, 2020.
11. "2020 MGP Presidential Data" (PDF). May 31, 2020. Retrieved June 3, 2020.
12. "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
13. "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
14. "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
15. "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
16. "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
17. 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine , Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
18. David Chalian; Terence Burlij (June 11, 2020). "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
19. "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
20. "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
21. "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
22. "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
23. Montanaro, Domenico (August 3, 2020). "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
24. "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. August 6, 2020. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
25. "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. August 12, 2020. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
26. "2020 Election Results". Maryland State Board of Elections. Retrieved December 10, 2020.
27. "Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for 2020, 2016, and 2012".
28. "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections". uselectionatlas.org. Retrieved March 31, 2023.
29. "Presidential Election Results: Biden Wins". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN   0362-4331 . Retrieved August 30, 2022.

Further reading

• Summary: State Laws on Presidential Electors (PDF), Washington DC: National Association of Secretaries of State, August 2020, Maryland

External links

• Government Documents Round Table of the American Library Association, "Maryland", Voting & Elections Toolkits
• "Maryland: Election Tools, Deadlines, Dates, Rules, and Links", Vote.org , Oakland, CA
• "League of Women Voters of Maryland". (state affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
• Maryland at Ballotpedia