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Van Hollen: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Szeliga: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% 50% No votes | |||||||||||||||||
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Elections in Maryland |
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Government |
The 2016 United States Senate election in Maryland took place on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Maryland, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
Incumbent Democratic Senator Barbara Mikulski decided to retire after five terms in the Senate. [1] Primary elections were held April 26, 2016, in which Chris Van Hollen and Kathy Szeliga were chosen as the Democratic and Republican party nominees, respectively. In addition, the Green Party chose Margaret Flowers and the Libertarian Party chose Arvin Vohra as their respective nominees.
Van Hollen was heavily favored to win the election. He ultimately won with over 60% of the vote. As typically occurs with the state's elections, most support for the Democratic nominee, Van Hollen, came from the densely populated Baltimore–Washington metropolitan area in central Maryland, while the Republican nominee, Szeliga, did well in the more sparsely populated areas on the Eastern Shore and in Western Maryland, and narrowly won Anne Arundel County, home to the state capital Annapolis, as well as exurban Frederick County.
This election was the first time since 1980 that a man won the Class 3 Senate seat in Maryland.
Mikulski first ran for the U.S. Senate in 1974, losing to Republican incumbent Charles Mathias. Mikulski then served in the U.S. House of Representatives from 1977 to 1987 and was elected to the U.S. Senate in 1986, succeeding the retiring Mathias. She was re-elected by large margins in 1992, 1998, 2004 and 2010. Shortly after being sworn in for her fifth term in 2011, she succeeded Margaret Chase Smith as the longest-serving female senator in U.S. history, [2] and on March 17, 2012, she became the longest-serving female member of Congress in U.S. history, surpassing Congresswoman Edith Nourse Rogers of Massachusetts, who served from 1925 to 1960. [3] On March 2, 2015, Mikulski announced that she would not run for re-election to a sixth term in office. [1]
In August 2013, Abby Livingston of Roll Call had predicted that a potential retirement by Mikulski would create "chaos" and "blow open Maryland's political bottleneck" because "the state's teeming political Democratic Party talent is backed up in lower offices." [4] Among the ten Democrats who ran in the primary, only two had previously been elected to an office.
Dates | Location | Van Hollen | Edwards | Link |
---|---|---|---|---|
March 25, 2016 | Baltimore, Maryland | Participant | Participant | [39] |
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Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Donna Edwards | Chris Van Hollen | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Monmouth University [78] | April 18–20, 2016 | 300 | ± 5.7% | 36% | 52% | 1% | 11% |
Public Policy Polling [79] | April 15–17, 2016 | 492 | ± 4.4% | 33% | 42% | — | 25% |
Marist College [80] | April 5–9, 2016 | 775 | ± 3.5% | 38% | 44% | — | 18% |
Washington Post/University of Maryland [81] | March 30 – April 3, 2016 | 539 | ± 4.5% | 44% | 40% | — | 16% |
Garin-Hart-Yang Research [82] | March 28–30, 2016 | 604 | ± 4.9% | 40% | 45% | — | 15% |
University of Baltimore [83] | March 4–9, 2016 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 34% | 28% | — | 31% |
Gonzales Research [84] | February 29 – March 4, 2016 | 411 | ± 5.0% | 41% | 42% | — | 17% |
Goucher College [85] | February 13–18, 2016 | 307 | ± 5.6% | 39% | 37% | — | 24% |
Gonzales Research [86] | January 11–16, 2016 | 402 | ± 5% | 36% | 38% | — | 24% |
University of Baltimore [87] | November 13–17, 2015 | 419 | ± 4.8% | 19% | 28% | 40% [13] | 13% |
31% | 45% | — | 24% | ||||
Washington Post/University of Maryland [88] | October 8–11, 2015 | 1,006 | ± 3.5% | 20% | 20% | 33% [13] | 27% |
Global Strategy Group (D-Edwards) [89] | August 3–9, 2015 | 600 | ± 4% | 42% | 37% | — | 21% |
Mellman Group (D-Cummings) [90] | March 19–22, 2015 | 700 | ± 3.7% | 23% | 22% | 29% [13] | 27% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Chris Van Hollen | 470,320 | 53.2% | |
Democratic | Donna Edwards | 343,620 | 38.9% | |
Democratic | Freddie Dickson | 14,856 | 1.7% | |
Democratic | Theresa Scaldaferri | 13,178 | 1.5% | |
Democratic | Violet Staley | 10,244 | 1.2% | |
Democratic | Lih Young | 8,561 | 1.0% | |
Democratic | Charles Smith | 7,912 | 0.9% | |
Democratic | Ralph Jaffe | 7,161 | 0.8% | |
Democratic | Blaine Taylor | 5,932 | 0.7% | |
Democratic | Ed Tinus | 2,560 | 0.3% | |
Total votes | 884,344 | 100.0% |
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Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Kathy Szeliga | Richard Douglas | Barry Glassman | Chrys Kefalas | Anthony Seda | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Marist College [127] | April 5–9, 2016 | 368 | ± 5.1% | 20% | 13% | – | 9% | – | 57% |
Washington Post/University of Maryland [81] | March 30 – April 3, 2016 | 283 | ± 7.5% | 15% | 9% | – | 11% | – | 46% |
University of Baltimore [128] | March 4–8, 2016 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 6% | 1% | – | 2% | <1% | 79% |
University of Baltimore [129] | November 13–17, 2015 | 307 | ± 5.6% | 15% | 9% | 8% | 5% | 4% | 59% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Kathy Szeliga | 135,337 | 35.6% | |
Republican | Chris Chaffee | 52,066 | 13.7% | |
Republican | Chrys Kefalas | 36,340 | 9.6% | |
Republican | Richard Douglas | 29,007 | 7.6% | |
Republican | Dave Wallace | 23,226 | 6.1% | |
Republican | Sean Connor | 21,727 | 5.7% | |
Republican | Lynn Richardson | 20,792 | 5.5% | |
Republican | John Graziani | 16,722 | 4.4% | |
Republican | Greg Holmes | 16,148 | 4.3% | |
Republican | Mark McNicholas | 9,988 | 2.6% | |
Republican | Joe Hooe | 8,282 | 2.2% | |
Republican | Anthony Seda | 3,873 | 1.0% | |
Republican | Richard Shawver | 3,155 | 0.8% | |
Republican | Garry Yarrington | 2,988 | 0.8% | |
Total votes | 379,651 | 100.0% |
Szeliga won the April 26, 2016, primary in Baltimore City and each of Maryland's counties except Calvert, St. Mary's, Charles, and Prince George's, in which Chris Chaffee received more votes. [130]
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Green | Margaret Flowers | 125 | 98.0% | |
Green | None of the above | 3 | 2.0% | |
Total votes | 128 | 100.0% |
Dates | Location | Van Hollen | Szeliga | Link |
---|---|---|---|---|
October 26, 2016 | Baltimore, Maryland | Participant | Participant | [137] |
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Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report [152] | Safe D | November 2, 2016 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [153] | Safe D | November 7, 2016 |
Rothenberg Political Report [154] | Safe D | November 3, 2016 |
Daily Kos [155] | Safe D | November 8, 2016 |
Real Clear Politics [156] | Safe D | November 7, 2016 |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Chris Van Hollen (D) | Kathy Szeliga (R) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SurveyMonkey [157] | November 1–7, 2016 | 1,216 | ± 4.6% | 64% | 33% | — | 3% |
SurveyMonkey [158] | October 31 – November 6, 2016 | 1,056 | ± 4.6% | 64% | 33% | — | 3% |
SurveyMonkey [159] | October 28 – November 3, 2016 | 851 | ± 4.6% | 66% | 32% | — | 2% |
SurveyMonkey [160] | October 27 – November 2, 2016 | 772 | ± 4.6% | 67% | 31% | — | 2% |
SurveyMonkey [161] | October 26 – November 1, 2016 | 695 | ± 4.6% | 66% | 31% | — | 3% |
SurveyMonkey [162] | October 25–31, 2016 | 740 | ± 4.6% | 66% | 31% | — | 3% |
University of Maryland/Washington Post [163] | September 27–30, 2016 | 706 | ± 4.0% | 58% | 29% | 5% | 6% |
Goucher College [164] | September 17–20, 2016 | 514 | ± 4.3% | 54% | 24% | 2% | 19% |
OpinionWorks [165] | August 18–30, 2016 | 754 | ± 3.6% | 55% | 26% | 1% | 19% |
Public Policy Polling [79] | April 15–17, 2016 | 879 | ± 3.3% | 53% | 25% | — | 22% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Chris Van Hollen | 1,659,907 | 60.89% | −1.30% | |
Republican | Kathy Szeliga | 972,557 | 35.67% | −0.08% | |
Green | Margaret Flowers | 89,970 | 3.30% | +2.17% | |
Write-in | 3,736 | 0.14% | +0.03% | ||
Total votes | 2,726,170 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
Democratic hold |
County | Chris Van Hollen Democratic | Kathy Szeliga Republican | Margaret Flowers Green | Write-in Write-in | Margin | Total votes cast | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
# | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
Allegany | 8,549 | 32.1% | 16,993 | 63.8% | 1,113 | 4.2% | 32 | 0.1% | -8444 | -31.7% | 26687 |
Anne Arundel | 116,422 | 47.8% | 119,760 | 49.2% | 7,374 | 3.0% | 305 | 0.1% | -3338 | -1.4% | 243556 |
Baltimore (County) | 189,041 | 56.4% | 135,846 | 40.5% | 10,212 | 3.0% | 511 | 0.2% | 53195 | 15.9% | 335099 |
Baltimore (City) | 171,318 | 82.7% | 26,353 | 12.7% | 9,550 | 4.6% | 463 | 0.2% | 144965 | 70.0% | 207684 |
Calvert | 17,094 | 40.1% | 23,867 | 56.0% | 1,691 | 4.0% | 76 | 0.2% | -6773 | -15.9% | 42654 |
Caroline | 4,306 | 32.6% | 8,560 | 64.9% | 327 | 2.5% | 11 | 0.1% | -4254 | -32.3% | 13193 |
Carroll | 25,415 | 29.9% | 57,540 | 67.6% | 2,149 | 2.5% | 80 | 0.1% | -32125 | -37.7% | 85184 |
Cecil | 13,864 | 33.4% | 26,143 | 63.0% | 1,517 | 3.7% | 58 | 0.1% | -12279 | -29.6% | 41478 |
Charles | 45,834 | 63.6% | 24,038 | 33.4% | 2,159 | 3.0% | 105 | 0.1% | 21796 | 30.2% | 72041 |
Dorchester | 6,127 | 44.4% | 7,351 | 53.3% | 321 | 2.3% | 15 | 0.1% | -1224 | -8.9% | 13814 |
Frederick | 52,651 | 46.0% | 57,432 | 50.2% | 4,382 | 3.8% | 163 | 0.1% | -4781 | -4.2% | 114628 |
Garrett | 2,402 | 19.3% | 9,655 | 77.7% | 371 | 3.0% | 18 | 0.1% | -7253 | -58.4% | 12446 |
Harford | 44,758 | 35.9% | 76,563 | 61.4% | 3,431 | 2.8% | 148 | 0.1% | -31805 | -25.5% | 124900 |
Howard | 89,622 | 60.9% | 52,577 | 35.8% | 4,854 | 3.3% | 224 | 0.2% | 37045 | 25.1% | 147277 |
Kent | 4,320 | 47.1% | 4,641 | 50.6% | 205 | 2.2% | 4 | 0.04% | -321 | -3.5% | 9170 |
Montgomery | 307,892 | 74.9% | 91,966 | 22.4% | 11,121 | 2.7% | 570 | 0.1% | 215926 | 52.5% | 410979 |
Prince George's | 305,992 | 88.1% | 30,451 | 8.8% | 10,961 | 3.2% | 652 | 0.2% | 275541 | 79.3% | 347056 |
Queen Anne's | 7,834 | 31.9% | 16,178 | 65.8% | 576 | 2.3% | 19 | 0.1% | -8344 | -33.9% | 24607 |
Somerset | 3,610 | 41.6% | 4,894 | 56.4% | 166 | 1.9% | 10 | 0.1% | -1284 | -14.8% | 8670 |
St. Mary's | 16,338 | 36.7% | 26,395 | 59.4% | 1,730 | 3.9% | 65 | 0.1% | -10057 | -22.7% | 44428 |
Talbot | 8,208 | 43.6% | 10,212 | 54.3% | 391 | 2.1% | 18 | 0.1% | -2004 | -10.7% | 18829 |
Washington | 21,422 | 36.3% | 35,312 | 59.8% | 2,298 | 3.9% | 89 | 0.2% | -13890 | -23.5% | 59121 |
Wicomico | 16,692 | 43.3% | 20,713 | 53.7% | 1,163 | 3.0% | 56 | 0.1% | -4021 | -10.4% | 38568 |
Worcester | 9,134 | 36.1% | 15,462 | 61.1% | 690 | 2.7% | 26 | 0.1% | -6328 | -25.0% | 25312 |
Van Hollen 7 of 8 congressional districts. [168]
District | Van Hollen | Szeliga | Representative |
---|---|---|---|
1st | 35% | 62% | Andy Harris |
2nd | 61% | 36% | Dutch Ruppersberger |
3rd | 62% | 35% | John Sarbanes |
4th | 76% | 21% | Donna Edwards |
Anthony Brown | |||
5th | 64% | 33% | Steny Hoyer |
6th | 57% | 39% | John Delaney |
7th | 72% | 24% | Elijah Cummings |
8th | 64% | 33% | Chris Van Hollen |
Jamie Raskin |
Vote for Donna Edwards for senator in Maryland
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