2010 United States Senate election in Maryland

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2010 United States Senate election in Maryland
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  Barbara Mikulski official portrait c. 2011.jpg Eric Wargotz.jpg
Nominee Barbara Mikulski Eric Wargotz
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote1,140,531655,666
Percentage62.19%35.75%
2010 United States Senate election in Maryland results map by county.svg
County results
Mikulski:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
Wargotz:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%
U.S. senator before election

Barbara Mikulski
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Barbara Mikulski
Democratic

The 2010 United States Senate election in Maryland was held on November 2, 2010. Primary elections were held on September 14, 2010. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Barbara Mikulski won re-election to a fifth term.

Contents

According to The Baltimore Sun columnist David Nitkin, Mikulski had indicated she planned to seek re-election to a fifth term. If Mikulski were to win re-election and serve the full term, she would tie Paul Sarbanes as the longest-serving senator in state history, and also becoming the longest-serving female senator in history, turning 80 years old in the process. [1] On February 15, 2010, rumors began to circulate that Mikulski would not seek reelection; however, these were denied by Democratic sources soon after. [2] [3]

She previously won senate elections in 1986, 1992, 1998, and 2004 by margins of 21, 42, 41 and 31 percentage points, respectively. Additionally, in the general election, state parties were expected to focus much of their attention on the seats of Governor Martin O'Malley and first-term Congressman Frank Kratovil, the latter of whom won a surprise victory in a conservative district of the state. [1] Nitkin [1] and Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball [4] considered her seat as overwhelmingly "safe."

Democratic primary

Results by county: .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Mikulski--80-90% Mikulski--70-80% Mikulski--60-70% Maryland Senate Democratic primary, 2010.svg
Results by county:
  Mikulski—80–90%
  Mikulski—70–80%
  Mikulski—60–70%
Democratic primary results [5]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Barbara Mikulski (Incumbent) 388,868 82.32%
Democratic Christopher J. Garner35,5797.53%
Democratic A. Billy Bob Jaworski15,1313.20%
Democratic Blaine Taylor10,7872.28%
Democratic Theresa C. Scaldaferri7,9131.68%
Democratic Sanquetta Taylor7,3651.56%
Democratic Lih Young6,7331.43%
Total votes472,376 100.00%

Republican primary

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Results

Results by county: Wargotz--60-70% Wargotz--50-60% Wargotz--40-50% Wargotz--<40% Rutledge--<40% Rutledge--40-50% Maryland Senate Republican primary, 2010.svg
Results by county:
  Wargotz—60–70%
  Wargotz—50–60%
  Wargotz—40–50%
  Wargotz—<40%
  Rutledge—<40%
  Rutledge—40–50%
Republican primary results [5]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Eric Wargotz 92,464 38.57%
Republican Jim Rutledge73,31130.58%
Republican Joseph Alexander14,0265.85%
Republican Neil H. Cohen13,6135.68%
Republican Stephens Dempsey9,3253.89%
Republican Daniel W. McAndrew8,4603.53%
Republican John B. Kimble8,0813.37%
Republican Samuel R. Graham, Sr.6,6002.75%
Republican Barry Steve Asbury5,9002.46%
Republican Eddie Vendetti5,0462.10%
Republican Gregory Kump2,9311.22%
Total votes239,757 100.00%

General election

Candidates

Major

Minor

  • Don Kaplan (Independent)
  • Richard Shawver (Constitution)
  • Kenniss Henry (Green)
  • Natasha Pettigrew (deceased) was the Green Party candidate. On September 19, while cycling, Pettigrew was hit by an SUV driver. Her mother, Kenniss Henry, was chosen by the Green Party to replace Pettigrew on the ballot. [6]

Campaign

Wargotz released two television ads, in the first he created and introduced the term "insidersaurus": comparing Mikulski to a dinosaur by calling her a political "insidersaurus" [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] being in Washington for over thirty years (a long-term political incumbent.) A second ad showed a hammer hitting a brick wall, breaking it down and citing criticisms of Mikulski's record as a U.S. Senator. Mikulski released advertisements emphasizing education and job creation. [12]

Despite Wargotz's limited campaign and resources he received the highest percentage of votes against Mikulski as an incumbent U.S. Senator (over 20 years.)

Debates

Despite repeated requests by the Wargotz Campaign formal debate was declined by the incumbent U.S. Senator Mikulski. The two candidates did appear together on Maryland Public Television (MPT) fielding common questions posed to both by the moderator but no formal debate was held.

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Cook Political Report [13] Solid DOctober 26, 2010
Rothenberg [14] Safe DOctober 22, 2010
RealClearPolitics [15] Safe DOctober 26, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball [16] Safe DOctober 21, 2010
CQ Politics [17] Safe DOctober 26, 2010

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Barbara
Mikulski (D)		Eric
Wargotz (R)		OtherUndecided
Rasmussen Reports (report)July 8, 2010500± 4.5%58%33%2%7%
Public Policy Polling (report)July 10–12, 2010569± 4.1%59%27%––14%
Rasmussen Reports (report)August 20, 2010750± 4.0%55%39%3%3%
Rasmussen Reports (report)September 15, 2010750± 4.0%54%38%4%4%
Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. (report)October 11–16, 2010816± 3.5%55%38%––7%
Baltimore Sun/OpinionWorks (report)October 15–20, 2010798± 3.5%59%32%––8%
Rasmussen Reports (report)October 24, 2010750± 4.0%56%38%2%4%

Fundraising

Candidate (party)ReceiptsDisbursementsCash on handDebtCash minus debt
Barbara Mikulski (D)$3,690,724$2,792,437$1,772,774$0$1,772,774
Eric Wargotz (R)$1,210,327$743,392$466,931$459,600$-7331.
Source: Federal Election Commission [18]

Results

United States Senate election in Maryland, 2010 [19]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Barbara Mikulski (incumbent) 1,140,531 62.19% -2.61%
Republican Eric Wargotz655,66635.75%+2.05%
Green Kenniss Henry20,7171.13%+0.06%
Constitution Richard Shawver14,7460.80%+0.42%
Write-in 2,2130.11%+0.05%
Total votes1,833,873 100.0%
Democratic hold

Results by county

CountyBarbara A. Mikulski

Democratic

Eric Wargotz

Republican

Kennis Henry

Green

Richard Shawver

Constitution

Other

Other

MarginTotal

Votes

Cast

#%#%#%#%#%#%
Allegany 963944.60%1135052.52%2881.33%3191.48%160.07%-1711-7.92%21612
Anne Arundel 10251151.17%9299446.42%27661.38%18680.93%2140.11%95174.75%200353
Baltimore (City) 13831286.59%1833611.48%20941.31%8310.52%1670.10%11997675.11%159740
Baltimore (County) 16567858.27%11267039.62%34261.20%22330.79%3430.12%5300818.64%284350
Calvert 1524748.44%1556949.46%3641.16%2750.87%210.07%-322-1.02%31476
Caroline 450845.46%514251.86%1201.21%1271.28%190.19%-634-6.39%9916
Carroll 2163234.38%3931262.48%8341.33%10401.65%1010.16%-17680-28.10%62919
Cecil 1313244.22%1560052.53%4431.49%4851.63%400.13%-2468-8.31%29700
Charles 3010664.88%1559833.62%3480.75%3210.69%280.06%1450831.27%46401
Dorchester 648155.96%491042.39%990.85%870.75%50.04%157113.56%11582
Frederick 3491346.67%3801350.81%8761.17%9051.21%1070.14%-3100-4.14%74814
Garrett 336135.76%575061.17%1171.24%1641.74%80.09%-2389-25.41%9400
Harford 4071243.50%5051353.98%10821.16%11711.25%1060.11%-9801-10.47%93584
Howard 6373859.71%4085338.27%12391.16%7940.74%1250.12%2288521.44%106749
Kent 454956.04%340541.95%811.00%740.91%80.10%114414.09%8117
Montgomery 20400570.67%7958227.57%33531.16%13930.48%3510.12%12442343.10%288684
Prince George's 20444189.11%226079.85%14720.64%7520.33%1640.07%18183479.25%229436
Queen Anne's 857543.64%1056153.75%1950.99%2841.45%350.18%-1986-10.11%19650
St. Mary's 1466946.86%1591150.83%3201.02%3771.20%260.08%-1242-3.97%31303
Somerset 408253.98%336344.47%480.63%670.89%20.03%7199.51%7562
Talbot 796849.28%794649.15%1470.91%950.59%120.07%220.14%16168
Washington 1735643.71%2087352.57%5791.46%6531.64%2470.62%-3517-8.86%39708
Wicomico 1466849.88%1418948.25%2430.83%2780.95%300.10%4791.63%29408
Worcester 1024848.28%1061950.03%1830.86%1530.72%230.11%-371-1.75%21226
Total114053162.19%65566635.75%207171.13%147460.80%21980.12%48486526.44%1833858

Counties that flipped from Democrat to Republican

See also

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References

  1. 1 2 3 Nitkin, David (November 12, 2008). "Smooth sailing for Mikulski". Maryland Politics Blog. The Baltimore Sun . Retrieved January 9, 2009.
  2. ↑ Geraghty, Jim (February 15, 2010). "Let's Get Real: Barbara Mikulski Does Not Fear a Loss This Year". National Review . Archived from the original on July 7, 2012. Retrieved February 16, 2010.
  3. ↑ Hockstader, Lee (February 16, 2010). "Mikulski another Dem retirement? Not likely". The Washington Post. Retrieved February 16, 2010.
  4. ↑ "Senate 2010: A three-peat for Democrats or Comeback for the GOP?". Crystal Ball. February 19, 2009. Archived from the original on January 7, 2010.
  5. 1 2 "Maryland Senate Primary Results". Maryland State Board of Elections. September 17, 2010. Retrieved September 17, 2010.
  6. ↑ Natasha Pettigrew – Mother to replace Green Party nominee for Senate – Baltimore Sun
  7. ↑ "'Insidersaurus'". Politico . September 2010.
  8. ↑ "Political Insidersaurus:Eric Wargotz on the Hunt". YouTube .
  9. ↑ "Senate Candidate Runs on Dinosaur Metaphor". The Atlantic . September 2, 2010.
  10. ↑ "MD-Sen: Wargotz Hits Mikulski for Being A "Political Insidersaurus" | RealClearPolitics".
  11. ↑ "Eric Wargotz - Political Insidersaurus is FoxNews Ad of the Day". YouTube .
  12. ↑ Pershing, Ben; Dropp, Kyle (October 4, 2010). "Mikulski leads despite drop in popularity". The Washington Post.
  13. ↑ "Senate". Cook Political Report . Retrieved October 26, 2010.
  14. ↑ "Senate Ratings". Rothenberg Political Report . Retrieved October 26, 2010.
  15. ↑ "Battle for the Senate". RealClearPolitics . Retrieved October 26, 2010.
  16. ↑ "2010 Senate Ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball . Retrieved October 26, 2010.
  17. ↑ "Race Ratings Chart: Senate". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 26, 2010.
  18. ↑ "2010 House and Senate Campaign Finance for Maryland". fec.gov. Retrieved May 1, 2010.[ permanent dead link ]
  19. ↑ Maryland State Board of Elections
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