2010 Maine gubernatorial election

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2010 Maine gubernatorial election
Flag of Maine.svg
  2006 November 2, 2010 2014  
  PaulLePage (cropped).jpg Eliot Cutler (cropped) (1).jpg
Nominee Paul LePage Eliot Cutler
Party Republican Independent
Popular vote218,065208,270
Percentage37.6%35.9%

  No image.svg
Nominee Libby Mitchell Shawn Moody
Party Democratic Independent
Popular vote109,38728,756
Percentage18.8%5.0%

2010 Maine gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
2010 Maine gubernatorial election results map by municipality.svg
LePage:     20–30%     30–40%     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Cutler:     30–40%     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     >90%
Mitchell:     30–40%     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%
Tie:     

Governor before election

John Baldacci
Democratic

Elected Governor

Paul LePage
Republican

The 2010 Maine gubernatorial election took place on November 2, 2010 to elect the governor of Maine. Incumbent Democratic governor John Baldacci was term-limited and could not seek re-election to a third consecutive term. Primary elections took place on June 8, 2010. The candidates who appeared on the November ballot were (in alphabetical order by last name): Eliot Cutler (Independent), Paul LePage (Republican), Libby Mitchell (Democratic), Shawn Moody (Independent), and Kevin Scott (Independent). [1]

Contents

With 94% of precincts reporting on the day after the election, the Bangor Daily News declared LePage the winner, carrying 38.1% of the votes. [2] Cutler was in second place with 36.7% of the votes (less than 7,500 votes behind LePage), while Mitchell was a distant third with 19%. [2] Moody and Scott had 5% and 1%, respectively. [2] Two days after the election, with 99% of precincts reporting, LePage's lead over Cutler had widened to more than 10,000 votes. [3] This election was the first since 1990 that Maine elected a Republican governor.

Democratic primary

Candidates

On ballot

Write-in

Withdrawn

  • Dawn Hill, State Representative. [14] [15] Hill withdrew from the race on January 1, 2010, citing the crowded field of candidates. [16]
  • John G. Richardson, former Commissioner of Economic and Community Development and former Speaker of the House. [4] [17] Richardson withdrew from the race on April 26 amid allegations that some of his campaign workers had not followed proper procedures for collecting donations to qualify him for Maine Clean Election funding. [18] The primary ballots had already been printed before Richardson withdrew from the race, so Richardson's name appeared on the ballot even though he was no longer a candidate. [19]
  • Peter Truman (also known as Peter Throumoulos), former state representative and convicted forger. [20] Did not appear on the ballot due to lack of petition signatures.

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDates administered Mitchell Rowe Scarcelli McGowan Undecided
Pan Atlantic SMS Group May 21–29, 201013.3%11.7%7.0%6.3%61.7%

Results

Results by county
.mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{}
Mitchell
30-40%
40-50%
Rowe
40-50%
McGowan
30-40% Maine Governor Democratic Primary Election Results by County, 2010.svg
Results by county
  Mitchell
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  Rowe
  •   40–50%
  McGowan
  •   30–40%
Democratic primary results [23]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Elizabeth "Libby" Mitchell 42,32834.4
Democratic G. Steven Rowe27,92322.7
Democratic Rosa Scarcelli26,44421.5
Democratic Patrick K. McGowan24,39219.8
Democratic John Richardson1,6041.3
Democratic Write-in2360.3
Total votes122,927 100

At 11:32 p.m. EDT, WCSH declared Libby Mitchell the winner of the Democratic primary. [24]

Republican primary

Candidates

On ballot

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDates administered Otten LePage Mills Abbott BeardsleyPoliquin Jacobson Undecided
MECPO [45] May 22-June 2, 201017.0%10.7%22.1%13.9%5.9%4.9%1.4%24.0%
Pan Atlantic SMS Group May 21–29, 201017.0%10.3%8.4%8.3%3.6%3.3%2.0%47.0%

Results

Results by county
LePage
20-30%
30-40%
40-50%
50-60%
Otten
30-40%
Beardsley
30-40% 2010MEgovGOP.svg
Results by county
  LePage
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  Otten
  •   30–40%
  Beardsley
  •   30–40%
Republican primary results [23]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Paul LePage49,12637.4
Republican Les Otten22,94517.4
Republican Peter Mills19,27114.7
Republican Steve Abbott17,20913.1
Republican William "Bill" Beardsley12,0619.2
Republican Bruce Poliquin6,4714.9
Republican Matt Jacobson4,3243.3
Total votes131,407 100

At 11:19 p.m. EDT, WCSH declared Paul LePage the winner of the GOP primary. [46]

Independents

Candidates on the ballot

Write-in candidates

Disqualified candidates

Withdrawn

Maine Green Independent Party

The Maine Green Independent Party did not have a gubernatorial candidate on the ballot, as no candidate collected required number of signatures. [65]

Withdrawn

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Cook Political Report [69] TossupOctober 14, 2010
Rothenberg [70] Tilt R (flip)October 28, 2010
RealClearPolitics [71] Likely R (flip)November 1, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball [72] Lean R (flip)October 28, 2010
CQ Politics [73] Lean DOctober 28, 2010

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Paul LePage (R)Libby Mitchell (D)Eliot Cutler (I)Shawn Moody (I)Kevin Scott (I)Undecided
MPRC / Down East Magazine October 28–30, 2010546± 4.19%39%24%29%4%1%2%
Critical Insights / MaineToday Media October 27–28, 2010621± 4%40%21%21%4%1%11%
Pan Atlantic SMS October 25–28, 2010400± 4.9%38.6%21.8%30.6%2.8%1.1%7.3%
Public Policy Polling October 26–28, 20101,812± 2.3%40%24%28%4%1%2%
Rasmussen Reports October 26, 2010500± 4.5%40%26%26%--5%
Critical Insights October 13–17, 2010600± 4%32%20%19%5%1%21%
Pan Atlantic SMS October 11–15, 2010501± 4.4%32.9%28.0%14.0%4.6%0.4%20.2%
Rasmussen Reports October 12, 2010500± 4.5%35%32%21%**6%
Critical Insights / MaineToday Media October 10–11, 2010605± 4%32%26%11%5126%
Pine Tree Politics / Maine Center for Public Opinion October 4–7, 2010679± 3.76%29.6%28.7%11.1%4.9%1.6%24.1%
Critical Insights / MaineToday Media September 27, 2010405± 4.9%29%30%9%5%0%26%
Rasmussen Reports September 20, 2010500± 4.5%45%27%14%**10%
Critical Insights / MaineToday Media September 13, 2010603± 4%38%25%11%4%1%21%
Public Policy Polling September 2–6, 20101,468± 2.6%43%29%11%5%1%12%
Rasmussen Reports August 12, 2010500± 4.5%38%30%16%**11%
Rasmussen Reports July 14, 2010500± 4.5%39%31%15%**12%
Rasmussen Reports June 10, 2010500± 4.5%43%36%7%**14%

* Shawn Moody and Kevin Scott, two Independent candidates who appeared on the ballot, were not offered as choices in the Rasmussen polls. [74]

Results

2010 Gubernatorial Election, Maine [75]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Paul LePage 218,065 37.6% +7.39%
Independent Eliot Cutler 208,27035.9%
Democratic Libby Mitchell 109,38718.8%−19.31%
Independent Shawn Moody28,7565.0%
Independent Kevin Scott5,6641.0%
Majority9,7951.7%−6.2
Turnout 580,538+29,673
Republican gain from Democratic Swing

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Independent

See also

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