2014 Alaska gubernatorial election

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2014 Alaska gubernatorial election
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  Bill Walker.jpg Former Governor of Alaska Sean Parnell.jpg
Nominee Bill Walker Sean Parnell
Party Independent Republican
Alliance Democratic
Running mate Byron Mallott Dan Sullivan
Popular vote134,658128,435
Percentage48.10%45.88%
2014 Alaska gubernatorial election results by State House district.svg
Alaska Governor 2014.svg
Walker:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
Parnell:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%
Governor before election

Sean Parnell
Republican

Elected Governor

Bill Walker
Independent

The 2014 Alaska gubernatorial election took place on November 4, 2014, to elect the governor and lieutenant governor of Alaska, concurrently with the election of Alaska's Class II U.S. Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Contents

Incumbent Republican Governor Sean Parnell ran for re-election to a second full term in office, but incumbent lieutenant governor Mead Treadwell instead chose to run for the U.S. Senate. Primary elections were held on August 19, 2014, to determine party nominees for the office, with separate primaries held for governor and lieutenant governor and the winners running together on the same ticket.

Parnell was renominated; his running mate was Anchorage Mayor Dan Sullivan. [1] The Democrats nominated businessman and former executive director of the Alaska Permanent Fund Byron Mallott, whose running mate was State Senator Hollis French. Also running as an independent was former Republican mayor of Valdez Bill Walker, whose running mate was Craig Fleener, the former deputy commissioner of the Alaska Department of Fish and Game.

On September 2, 2014, Walker and Mallott merged their campaigns to appear on the November ballot as a single independent ticket, which the Alaska Democratic Party endorsed. On this ticket, Walker ran for governor with Mallott as his running mate. Both candidates' former running mates withdrew. [2] Parnell was considered vulnerable, as reflected in his low approval ratings. The consensus among The Cook Political Report , Governing , The Rothenberg Political Report , Sabato's Crystal Ball , Daily Kos Elections, and others was that the contest was a tossup. Former Republican governor Sarah Palin, who had praised Parnell as her successor when she resigned in 2009, endorsed Walker and Mallott, taking issue with Parnell's tax cuts for the oil and gas industry.

On November 7, Walker and Mallott held a 3,165-vote lead, [3] which on November 11 had grown to 4,004 out of some 244,000 votes cast, or 1.6%. [4] Walker began preparing for a transition but the race remained officially uncalled and Parnell refused to concede. [5] [6] [7] [8] [9] On November 14, after Walker and Mallott extended their lead to 4,634 votes, [10] multiple media outlets called the race. [11] [12] Parnell conceded the following day. [13] His loss – coupled with Democrat Mark Begich's defeat in the U.S. Senate election – marked just the fifth time in the last 50 years in which an incumbent governor and senator from different political parties were defeated in the same state in the same election cycle. [14]

Republican primary

Governor

Candidates

Declared
Withdrew

Polling

Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Sean
Parnell		Bill
Walker		Undecided
Public Policy Polling July 25–28, 2013507± 4.4%60%22%18%

Results

Republican primary results [20]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Sean Parnell (incumbent) 80,903 75.86
Republican Russ Millette11,29610.59
Republican Brad Snowden10,5949.93
Republican Gerald L. "Tap" Heikes3,8553.61
Total votes106,648 100

Lieutenant governor

Candidates

Declared
Withdrew

Results

Republican primary results [20]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Dan Sullivan 74,758 70.70
Republican Kelly Wolf30,98529.30
Total votes105,743 100

Democratic–Libertarian–Independence primary

Candidates from the Alaska Democratic Party, Alaska Libertarian Party and Alaskan Independence Party appear on the same ballot, with the highest-placed candidate from each party receiving that party's nomination.

Governor

Democratic candidates

Declared
Withdrew
Declined

Libertarian candidates

Declared
  • Carolyn Clift, treasurer of the Alaska Libertarian Party [15]

Results

Democratic–Libertarian–Independence primary results [20]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Byron Mallott 42,327 66.89
Democratic Phil Stoddard10,51416.62
Libertarian Carolyn Clift 10,436 16.49
Total votes63,277 100

Lieutenant governor

Democratic candidates

Declared

Libertarian candidates

Declared
  • Andrew C. Lee, gold miner [33]

Results

Democratic–Libertarian–Independence primary results [20]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Hollis French 40,271 62.08
Democratic Bob Williams16,35825.22
Libertarian Andrew C. Lee 8,238 12.70
Total votes64,867 100

Others

Constitution Party

  • Running mate: Maria Rensel [35]

Independent

General election

Campaign

Parnell drew criticism during his re-election campaign over his support of billions in tax reductions for the petrochemical industry as well an exploding scandal featuring five years of alleged cover ups with regard to rampant sexual abuse, cronyism, corruption and whistleblower suppression, in the Alaska National Guard. [37] [38] [39]

In October 2014, former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin endorsed Walker and Mallott. The endorsement was prompted by Parnell's oil and gas industry tax cuts, which dismantled her administration's "Alaska's Clear and Equitable Share" (ACES) plan. She had previously supported a referendum to repeal the tax cuts, which was narrowly defeated [40] in August 2014. Walker and Mallott made the repeal of the tax cuts a centerpiece of their campaign. [41]

Debates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [42] TossupNovember 3, 2014
Sabato's Crystal Ball [43] Lean I (flip)November 3, 2014
Rothenberg Political Report [44] TossupNovember 3, 2014
Real Clear Politics [45] TossupNovember 3, 2014

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Sean
Parnell (R)		Byron
Mallott (D)		Bill
Walker (I)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling November 1–2, 20141,052± 3%45%—46%4% [46] 5%
47%—48%—6%
Rasmussen Reports October 27–30, 2014887± 4%43%—50%—7%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov October 16–23, 2014561± 9%42%—39%0%20%
Hellenthal & Associates October 15–21, 2014403± 4.88%44%—43%5% [47] 9%
Rasmussen Reports October 8–12, 2014700± 4%41%—50%2%7%
Fox News October 4–7, 2014706± 3.5%42%—37%8% [48] 13%
CNN/ORC October 1–6, 2014704 LV± 3.5%45%—51%—3%
875 RV± 3.4%46%—49%1%5%
Hickman Analytics September 26 – October 2, 2014400± 4.9%46%—38%7% [49] 10%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov September 20 – October 1, 2014593± 5%40%—45%1%14%
Rasmussen Reports September 23–24, 2014713± 4%42%—47%5%6%
Public Policy Polling September 18–21, 2014880± 3.3%41%—42%5% [50] 13%
41%—45%—14%
Hays Research/AFL-CIO September 13–14, 2014500± 4.38%30%—37%33%
Hays Research* August 20–22, 2014474± 4.5%40%—43%—15%
Rasmussen Reports August 20–21, 2014750± 4%47%36%—11%6%
Public Policy Polling July 31 – August 1, 2014673± 3.8%37%22%20%5% [51] 16%
48%37%——14%
41%—40%—19%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov July 5–24, 2014450± 5.2%55%29%—6%8%
Public Policy Polling May 8–11, 2014582± 4.1%37%27%17%4% [52] 15%
Public Policy Polling January 30 – February 1, 2014850± 3.4%41%25%16%3% [52] 15%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Sean
Parnell (R)		Ethan
Berkowitz (D)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling July 25–28, 2013890± 3.3%51%38%12%
Public Policy Polling February 4–5, 20131,129± 2.9%50%41%9%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Sean
Parnell (R)		Hollis
French (D)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling July 25–28, 2013890± 3.3%54%33%13%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Sean
Parnell (R)		Les
Gara (D)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling July 25–28, 2013890± 3.3%53%33%14%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Sean
Parnell (R)		Scott
McAdams (D)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 4–5, 20131,129± 2.9%52%34%15%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Sean
Parnell (R)		Mike
Navarre (D)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 4–5, 20131,129± 2.9%51%29%20%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Sean
Parnell (R)		Joe
Paskvan (D)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 4–5, 20131,129± 2.9%51%25%24%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Sean
Parnell (R)		Bill
Wielechowski (D)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling July 25–28, 2013890± 3.3%52%33%15%

Results

2014 Alaska gubernatorial election [53]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Independent Bill Walker 134,658 48.10% N/A
Republican Sean Parnell (incumbent)128,43545.88%-13.18%
Libertarian Carolyn Clift8,9853.21%+2.16%
Constitution J. R. Myers6,9872.50%N/A
Write-in 8930.32%-0.04%
Total votes279,958 100.00% N/A
Independent gain from Republican

Boroughs and census areas that flipped from Republican to Independent

Boroughs and census areas that flipped from Democratic to Independent

See also

Elections in Alaska

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References

  1. ↑ Not to be confused with former Commissioner of the Alaska Department of Natural Resources Dan Sullivan who ran as the Republican nominee in the U.S. Senate election which was held at the same time.
  2. ↑ "Walker, Mallott to join forces in governor's race". Alaska Dispatch News. September 1, 2014. Retrieved September 2, 2014.
  3. ↑ "In governor's race, Walker has edge -- or maybe not". Alaska Dispatch News. November 6, 2014. Retrieved November 7, 2014.
  4. ↑ "Highs, lows for campaigns as votes are tallied in Alaska election". Alaska Dispatch News. November 11, 2014. Retrieved November 12, 2014.
  5. ↑ "Parnell says race isn't over as Walker moves ahead with transition planning". Alaska Dispatch News. November 12, 2014. Retrieved November 14, 2014.
  6. ↑ "Governor's race uncalled; Walker plans transition". Alaska Journal. November 13, 2014. Retrieved November 14, 2014.
  7. ↑ "Walker introduces co-chairs of transition team". Houston Chronicle. November 12, 2014. Retrieved November 14, 2014.
  8. ↑ "Number of uncounted votes grows in Alaska U.S. Senate race". Alaska Dispatch News. November 7, 2014. Retrieved November 7, 2014.
  9. ↑ "More than 50,000 votes remain to be counted in heated Alaska races". Alaska Dispatch News. November 10, 2014. Retrieved November 12, 2014.
  10. ↑ "Friday vote count makes Walker victory in race for governor look certain". Alaska Dispatch News. November 15, 2014. Retrieved November 14, 2014.
  11. ↑ "Alaska Governor Race: Incumbent Republican Sean Parnell Loses To Independent Bill Walker". The Huffington Post. November 15, 2014. Retrieved November 14, 2014.
  12. ↑ "Unity ticket defeats Alaska GOP Gov. Sean Parnell in drawn-out race". Los Angeles Times. November 15, 2014. Retrieved November 14, 2014.
  13. ↑ "Parnell concedes governor's race". Alaska Dispatch News. November 15, 2014. Retrieved November 27, 2014.
  14. ↑ Ostermeier, Eric (November 19, 2014). "Mark Begich and Sean Parnell Join Small Group in Defeat". Smart Politics.
  15. 1 2 3 4 "2014 Primary Official Candidate List". Alaska Secretary of State. Archived from the original on June 30, 2014. Retrieved June 4, 2014.
  16. ↑ "Ousted GOP leader plans run for governor". Anchorage Daily News . Associated Press. May 23, 2014. Archived from the original on May 26, 2014. Retrieved May 25, 2014.
  17. ↑ Forgey, Pat (May 4, 2013). "Alaska Gov. Sean Parnell to seek re-election in 2014". Alaska Dispatch. Retrieved October 16, 2013.
  18. 1 2 Thiessen, Mark (April 25, 2013). "Walker announces 2014 run for Alaska governor". Anchorage Daily News. Archived from the original on April 29, 2013. Retrieved April 26, 2013.
  19. 1 2 "Walker planning to run as independent for Alaska governor". Newsminer. August 1, 2013. Retrieved August 5, 2013.
  20. 1 2 3 4 "2014 Primary Elections August 19, 2014 Official Results". State of Alaska Division of Elections. Retrieved September 8, 2014.
  21. ↑ Gonzales, Nathan L. (May 23, 2013). "Anchorage Mayor Not Running in Alaska Senate Race". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved May 25, 2013.
  22. ↑ "Assembly Member Running for Lieutenant Governor". Anchorage Daily News . June 2, 2014. Retrieved May 16, 2014.
  23. ↑ Hopkins, Kyle (June 5, 2013). "McGuire files to run for lieutenant governor". Anchorage Daily News . Archived from the original on June 9, 2013. Retrieved June 10, 2013.
  24. ↑ "McGuire withdraws from lieutenant governor race just before filing deadline". Anchorage Daily News . June 2, 2014. Archived from the original on June 6, 2014. Retrieved June 4, 2014.
  25. ↑ DeMarban, Alex (September 3, 2013). "Byron Mallot announces decision to run for Alaska governor". Alaska Dispatch . Archived from the original on December 14, 2013. Retrieved September 3, 2013.
  26. 1 2 John Aronno (October 16, 2013). "Hollis French Swaps Roles, 2014 Gubernatorial Field Likely Set". Alaska Commons. Retrieved November 5, 2013.
  27. ↑ Miller, Mark D. (May 6, 2013). "Treadwell ramps up for Senate after Parnell announcement". Juneau Empire. Archived from the original on June 7, 2013. Retrieved May 8, 2013.
  28. ↑ "Gara decides to seek re-election to Alaska House". Anchorage Daily News . Associated Press. August 22, 2013. Archived from the original on August 31, 2013. Retrieved August 23, 2013.
  29. ↑ Caldwell, Suzanna (April 3, 2013). "Less is more as former Senate candidate Scott McAdams sheds 100 pounds". Alaska Dispatch. Retrieved October 16, 2013.
  30. ↑ "Wielechowski taking look at governor's race". News Miner. Associated Press. May 29, 2013. Retrieved May 30, 2013.
  31. ↑ Scott Rhode (June 3, 2014). "Ten Observations About 2014 Candidates". KENI . Retrieved June 4, 2014.
  32. ↑ "Sen. Lesil McGuire withdrawing from lieutenant gov's race". KTOO. June 3, 2014. Archived from the original on June 7, 2014. Retrieved June 4, 2014.
  33. ↑ "Loose Lips: Establishment finds its West Anchorage candidate, drafting Palin, Gattis nabs Bickford". Amanda Coyne. May 20, 2014. Retrieved June 4, 2014.
  34. ↑ Redlich, Warren (October 1, 2013). "Constitution Party Candidate for Alaska". Independent Political Report. Retrieved October 16, 2013.
  35. ↑ "November 4, 2014 General Election Candidate List". Alaska Secretary of State. Archived from the original on August 20, 2014. Retrieved August 22, 2014.
  36. ↑ Demer, Lisa (October 14, 2013). "Walker chooses Fleener as running mate in independent bid for governor". Alaska Dispatch News. Retrieved July 24, 2014.
  37. ↑ Parnell defends handling alaska national guard dysfunction, plans more firings, Alaska Dispatch News, Jill Burke and Richard Mauer, October 2, 2014. Retrieved October 3, 2014.
  38. ↑ Parnell waited years to take direct action on National Guard misconduct, Alaska Dispatch News, Jill Burke and Richard Mauer, October 1, 2014. Retrieved October 3, 2014.
  39. ↑ Debate draws standing-room-only crowd Archived June 2, 2015, at the Wayback Machine , KTUU, Caslon Hatch. July 23, 2014. Retrieved October 3, 2014.
  40. ↑ narrowly defeated
  41. ↑ "Palin Endorses Independent-Democratic Ticket for Alaska Governor Against GOP Successor". National Journal. October 23, 2014. Archived from the original on October 24, 2014. Retrieved October 24, 2014.
  42. ↑ "2014 Governor Race Ratings for November 3, 2014". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 4, 2018.
  43. ↑ "The Crystal Ball's Final 2014 Picks". Sabato's Crystal Ball. November 3, 2014. Retrieved September 4, 2018.
  44. ↑ "2014 Gubernatorial Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 4, 2018.
  45. ↑ "2014 Elections Map - 2014 Governors Races". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 4, 2018.
  46. ↑ Carolyn Clift (L) 2%, J.R. Myers (I) 2%
  47. ↑ Carolyn Clift (L) 4%, J.R. Myers (I) 1%
  48. ↑ Carolyn Clift (L) 4%, J.R. Myers (I) 1%, Other 3%
  49. ↑ Carolyn Clift (L) 5%, J.R. Myers (I) 2%
  50. ↑ Carolyn Clift (L) 3%, J.R. Myers (I) 2%
  51. ↑ Carolyn Clift (L) 3%, J.R. Myers (C) 2%
  52. 1 2 J.R. Myers (C)
  53. ↑ "2014 General Election November 4, 2014 Official Results". elections.alaska.gov. November 11, 2014. Retrieved November 27, 2014.
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