2014 United States Senate election in South Carolina

Last updated

2014 United States Senate election in South Carolina
Flag of South Carolina.svg
  2008 November 4, 2014 2020  
  Lindsey Graham, official photo, 113th Congress.jpg
Nominee Lindsey Graham Brad Hutto
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote672,942480,933
Percentage54.27%38.78%

2014 United States Senate election in South Carolina results map by county.svg
County results

Graham:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%

Contents

Hutto:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%

U.S. senator before election

Lindsey Graham
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Lindsey Graham
Republican

The 2014 United States Senate election in South Carolina took place on November 4, 2014, concurrently with a special election for South Carolina's other Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Republican Lindsey Graham won reelection to a third term. He faced Democratic state senator Brad Hutto and Independent Thomas Ravenel in the general election. He defeated both of them by a 15-point margin.

As of 2022, this is the last time that Barnwell County, Darlington County, and Calhoun County voted Democratic in a Senate election.

Republican primary

Of all the Republican senators up for re-election in the 2014 cycle, Graham was considered one of the most vulnerable to a primary challenge, largely due to his low approval ratings and reputation for working with and compromising with Democrats. [1] [2] He expected a primary challenge from conservative activists, including the Tea Party movement, [3] and Chris Chocola, president of the Club for Growth, indicated that his organization would support a primary challenge if an acceptable standard-bearer emerged. [4]

However, a serious challenger to Graham failed to emerge and he was widely viewed as likely to win, [1] which has been ascribed to his "deft maneuvering" and "aggressive" response to the challenge. He befriended potential opponents from the state's congressional delegation and helped them with fundraising and securing their preferred committee assignments; he assembled a "daunting multimillion-dollar political operation" dubbed the "Graham machine" that built six regional offices across the state and enlisted the support of thousands of paid staffers and volunteers, including over 5,000 precinct captains; he assembled a "staggering" campaign warchest and "blanketed" the state with positive ads; he focused on constituent services and local issues; and he refused to "pander" to the Tea Party supporters, instead confronting them head-on, arguing that the Republican party needs to be more inclusive. [5] [6] [7]

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

  • Dave Feliciano, police officer [13]

Declined

Endorsements

Lindsey Graham
Newspapers
Det Bowers

Individuals

Organizations
  • Sumter TEAvangical Patriots [28]
Lee Bright

Individuals

  • Greg Brannon, physician and 2014 North Carolina U.S Senate candidate [29]
  • Bill Chumley, state representative [30]
  • Thomas Massie, U.S Representative from Kentucky [31]
  • William Rentiers, Chairman of the Lexington County Republican Party [32]
  • Steve Stockman, U.S Representative from Texas [33]
  • Kevin Thomas, Chairman of the Fairfield County Republican Party [34]
  • Lewis Vaughn, former state senator [35]

Organizations

Bill Connor
Nancy Mace
Declined to endorse

Debates

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Lindsey
Graham
Det
Bowers
Lee
Bright
Richard
Cash
Bill
Connor
Benjamin
Dunn
Nancy
Mace
Undecided
Landmark/Rosetta Stone August 25, 2013500± 4.5%42.4%12.6%6.7%10%28.3%
Harper Polling October 27–28, 2013379± 5.03%51%15%4%4%4%22%
Gravis Marketing November 30 – December 2, 2013601± 4%54%10%5%2%6%23%
North Star^ January 20–26, 2014600± 4%53%11%3%3%8%23%
Wenzel Strategies* February 3–4, 2014623± 3.9%45.9%17.4%4.9%4.2%5.1%22.5%
Winthrop University February 16–23, 2014901± 3.2%45%8.5%2.9%3.5%3.7%36.5%
Gravis Marketing March 6–7, 2014735± 4%60%10%4%2%7%17%
TargetPoint March 16–22, 2014600± 2.8%56%4%6%7%1%1%5%20%
Clemson University Archived June 6, 2014, at the Wayback Machine May 22–29, 2014400± 6%49%1%9%3%1%0%2%35%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Lindsey
Graham
Tom
Davis
Undecided
Public Policy Polling December 7–9, 2012506± 4.4%67%17%16%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Lindsey
Graham
Jim
DeMint
Undecided
Gravis Marketing November 30 – December 2, 2013601± 4%36%47%17%
Gravis Marketing March 6–7, 2014735± 4%44%42%14%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Lindsey
Graham
Trey
Gowdy
Undecided
Public Policy Polling December 7–9, 2012506± 4.4%57%29%14%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Lindsey
Graham
Mick
Mulvaney
Undecided
Public Policy Polling December 7–9, 2012506± 4.4%64%20%17%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Lindsey
Graham
Mark
Sanford
Undecided
Public Policy Polling January 28–30, 2011559± 4.1%52%34%14%
Public Policy Polling December 7–9, 2012506± 4.4%64%26%10%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Lindsey
Graham
Tim
Scott
Undecided
Public Policy Polling December 7–9, 2012506± 4.4%54%32%14%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Lindsey
Graham
Joe
Wilson
Undecided
Public Policy Polling January 28–30, 2011559± 4.1%41%43%16%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Lindsey
Graham
Someone more
conservative
Undecided
Public Policy Polling January 28–30, 2011559± 4.1%37%52%11%
Public Policy Polling May 22–23, 2011638± 3.9%32%57%11%
Public Policy Polling December 7–9, 2012506± 4.4%51%40%9%
Gravis Marketing November 30 – December 2, 2013601± 4%37%39%24%
Gravis Marketing March 6–7, 2014735± 4%43%32%25%
Hypothetical runoff polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Lindsey
Graham
Lee
Bright
Undecided
Landmark/Rosetta Stone August 25, 2013500± 4.5%49.4%23.7%26.9%
North Star^ January 20–26, 2014600± 4%57%27%16%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Lindsey
Graham
Richard
Cash
Undecided
Landmark/Rosetta Stone August 25, 2013500± 4.5%49.3%20.5%30.2%
North Star^ January 20–26, 2014600± 4%58%26%16%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Lindsey
Graham
Bill
Connor
Undecided
North Star^ January 20–26, 2014600± 4%59%25%16%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Lindsey
Graham
Nancy
Mace
Undecided
Landmark/Rosetta Stone August 25, 2013500± 4.5%48.2%23.2%28.6%
North Star^ January 20–26, 2014600± 4%59%26%15%
  • ^ Internal poll for Lindsey Graham campaign

Results

Republican primary results [46]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Lindsey Graham (incumbent) 178,833 56.42%
Republican Lee Bright 48,90415.53%
Republican Richard Cash 26,3258.30%
Republican Det Bowers23,1727.31%
Republican Nancy Mace 19,6346.19%
Republican Bill Connor16,9125.34%
Republican Benjamin Dunn3,2091.01%
Total votes316,989 100.00%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Endorsements

Brad Hutto
Individuals
Organizations
Newspapers

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Brad
Hutto
Jay
Stamper
Undecided
Clemson University May 26 – June 2, 2014400± 6%8%3%89%

Results

Democratic primary results [46]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Brad Hutto 87,552 76.65%
Democratic Jay Stamper26,67823.35%
Total votes114,230 100.00%

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Declared

Independent

In March 2014, with only controversial businessman and prankster Jay Stamper running for the Democrats, Dick Harpootlian, former chairman of the South Carolina Democratic Party, had stated that business leaders were working on an effort to recruit a potential independent candidate to run in case Graham was defeated in the primary. [48] Such a "contingency" plan was rendered moot by the entry of Democratic state senator Brad Hutto into the race. [48]

Former Republican state treasurer Thomas Ravenel had confirmed that was considering running for the Senate as an independent and was likely to do so if Lindsey Graham won the Republican primary. [56] In April 2014, with Graham polling strongly in the primary, Ravenel announced he would run. [57] He officially announced his candidacy on July 4. [58]

Candidates

Declared

General election

Debates

Graham initially declined to debate his opponents. A spokesman said that his campaign was "in discussions with other groups, as well as looking at the schedule." Hutto said that Graham is "terrified at the thought of defending his own record in a public debate" and Ravenel said Graham's decision was "highly arrogant and disrespectful." [59] Graham claimed he refused to debate because of the presence of independent candidate Thomas Ravenel, a convicted felon. He ultimately agreed to debate Hutto alone on October 27. [60]

Fundraising

The following are Federal Election Commission disclosures for the pre-primary reporting period.

Candidate (party)ReceiptsDisbursements ....Cash on handDebt
Lindsey Graham (R)$7,014,854$9,063,768$0$276,312
Brad Hutto (D)$399,770$342,366$132,401$75,000

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [61] Solid RNovember 3, 2014
Sabato's Crystal Ball [62] Safe RNovember 3, 2014
Rothenberg Political Report [63] Safe RNovember 3, 2014
Real Clear Politics [64] Safe RNovember 3, 2014

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Lindsey
Graham (R)
Brad
Hutto (D)
Thomas
Ravenel (I)
OtherUndecided
Rasmussen Reports July 9–10, 2014750± 4%49%30%10%11%
Voter Survey Service July 7–13, 20141,000± 4%46%33%9%12%
Voter Survey Service July 16–20, 2014650± 4%45%33%10%4% [65] 8%
46%33%9% [65] 12%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov July 5–24, 20141,183± 5.4%48%36%7%10%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov August 18 – September 2, 2014833± 5%42%29%8%2%19%
Winthrop University September 21–28, 20141,082± 3%46.3%28%8%3.5% [66] 14.3%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov September 20 – October 1, 20142,663± 2%44%27%8%1%20%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov October 16–23, 20141,566± 4%43%28%8%2%19%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Lindsey
Graham (R)
Jay
Stamper (D)
Undecided
Harper Polling October 27–28, 2013676± 3.77%47%30%23%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Nancy
Mace (R)
Jay
Stamper (D)
Undecided
Harper Polling October 27–28, 2013676± 3.77%40%33%27%

Results

United States Senate election in South Carolina, 2014 [67]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Lindsey Graham (incumbent) 672,941 54.27% -3.25%
Democratic Brad Hutto [68] 480,93338.78%-3.47%
Independent Thomas Ravenel 47,5883.84%N/A
Libertarian Victor Kocher33,8392.73%N/A
Write-in 4,7740.38%+0.15%
Total votes1,240,075 100.00% N/A
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

See also

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  63. "2014 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  64. "2014 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2014". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  65. 1 2 Victor Kocher (L)
  66. Victor Kocher (L) 2.6%, Other 0.9%
  67. "SC - Election Results". www.enr-scvotes.org.
  68. Aggregated total includes 24,207 votes Hutto received under the Working Families Party.
Official campaign websites