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County results Graham: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% Contents
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Elections in South Carolina |
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The 2014 United States Senate election in South Carolina took place on November 4, 2014, concurrently with a special election for South Carolina's other Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
Incumbent Republican Lindsey Graham won reelection to a third term. He faced Democratic state senator Brad Hutto and Independent Thomas Ravenel in the general election. He defeated both of them by a 15-point margin.
As of 2022, this is the last time that Barnwell County, Darlington County, and Calhoun County voted Democratic in a Senate election.
Of all the Republican senators up for re-election in the 2014 cycle, Graham was considered one of the most vulnerable to a primary challenge, largely due to his low approval ratings and reputation for working with and compromising with Democrats. [1] [2] He expected a primary challenge from conservative activists, including the Tea Party movement, [3] and Chris Chocola, president of the Club for Growth, indicated that his organization would support a primary challenge if an acceptable standard-bearer emerged. [4]
However, a serious challenger to Graham failed to emerge and he was widely viewed as likely to win, [1] which has been ascribed to his "deft maneuvering" and "aggressive" response to the challenge. He befriended potential opponents from the state's congressional delegation and helped them with fundraising and securing their preferred committee assignments; he assembled a "daunting multimillion-dollar political operation" dubbed the "Graham machine" that built six regional offices across the state and enlisted the support of thousands of paid staffers and volunteers, including over 5,000 precinct captains; he assembled a "staggering" campaign warchest and "blanketed" the state with positive ads; he focused on constituent services and local issues; and he refused to "pander" to the Tea Party supporters, instead confronting them head-on, arguing that the Republican party needs to be more inclusive. [5] [6] [7]
Individuals
Individuals
Organizations
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Lindsey Graham | Det Bowers | Lee Bright | Richard Cash | Bill Connor | Benjamin Dunn | Nancy Mace | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Landmark/Rosetta Stone | August 25, 2013 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 42.4% | — | 12.6% | 6.7% | — | — | 10% | 28.3% |
Harper Polling | October 27–28, 2013 | 379 | ± 5.03% | 51% | — | 15% | 4% | 4% | — | 4% | 22% |
Gravis Marketing | November 30 – December 2, 2013 | 601 | ± 4% | 54% | — | 10% | 5% | 2% | — | 6% | 23% |
North Star^ | January 20–26, 2014 | 600 | ± 4% | 53% | — | 11% | 3% | 3% | — | 8% | 23% |
Wenzel Strategies* | February 3–4, 2014 | 623 | ± 3.9% | 45.9% | — | 17.4% | 4.9% | 4.2% | — | 5.1% | 22.5% |
Winthrop University | February 16–23, 2014 | 901 | ± 3.2% | 45% | — | 8.5% | 2.9% | 3.5% | — | 3.7% | 36.5% |
Gravis Marketing | March 6–7, 2014 | 735 | ± 4% | 60% | — | 10% | 4% | 2% | — | 7% | 17% |
TargetPoint | March 16–22, 2014 | 600 | ± 2.8% | 56% | 4% | 6% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 5% | 20% |
Clemson University Archived June 6, 2014, at the Wayback Machine | May 22–29, 2014 | 400 | ± 6% | 49% | 1% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 2% | 35% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Lindsey Graham | Tom Davis | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | December 7–9, 2012 | 506 | ± 4.4% | 67% | 17% | 16% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Lindsey Graham | Jim DeMint | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Gravis Marketing | November 30 – December 2, 2013 | 601 | ± 4% | 36% | 47% | 17% |
Gravis Marketing | March 6–7, 2014 | 735 | ± 4% | 44% | 42% | 14% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Lindsey Graham | Trey Gowdy | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | December 7–9, 2012 | 506 | ± 4.4% | 57% | 29% | 14% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Lindsey Graham | Mick Mulvaney | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | December 7–9, 2012 | 506 | ± 4.4% | 64% | 20% | 17% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Lindsey Graham | Mark Sanford | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | January 28–30, 2011 | 559 | ± 4.1% | 52% | 34% | 14% |
Public Policy Polling | December 7–9, 2012 | 506 | ± 4.4% | 64% | 26% | 10% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Lindsey Graham | Tim Scott | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | December 7–9, 2012 | 506 | ± 4.4% | 54% | 32% | 14% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Lindsey Graham | Joe Wilson | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | January 28–30, 2011 | 559 | ± 4.1% | 41% | 43% | 16% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Lindsey Graham | Someone more conservative | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | January 28–30, 2011 | 559 | ± 4.1% | 37% | 52% | 11% |
Public Policy Polling | May 22–23, 2011 | 638 | ± 3.9% | 32% | 57% | 11% |
Public Policy Polling | December 7–9, 2012 | 506 | ± 4.4% | 51% | 40% | 9% |
Gravis Marketing | November 30 – December 2, 2013 | 601 | ± 4% | 37% | 39% | 24% |
Gravis Marketing | March 6–7, 2014 | 735 | ± 4% | 43% | 32% | 25% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Lindsey Graham | Lee Bright | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Landmark/Rosetta Stone | August 25, 2013 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 49.4% | 23.7% | 26.9% |
North Star^ | January 20–26, 2014 | 600 | ± 4% | 57% | 27% | 16% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Lindsey Graham | Richard Cash | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Landmark/Rosetta Stone | August 25, 2013 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 49.3% | 20.5% | 30.2% |
North Star^ | January 20–26, 2014 | 600 | ± 4% | 58% | 26% | 16% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Lindsey Graham | Bill Connor | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
North Star^ | January 20–26, 2014 | 600 | ± 4% | 59% | 25% | 16% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Lindsey Graham | Nancy Mace | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Landmark/Rosetta Stone | August 25, 2013 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 48.2% | 23.2% | 28.6% |
North Star^ | January 20–26, 2014 | 600 | ± 4% | 59% | 26% | 15% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Lindsey Graham (incumbent) | 178,833 | 56.42% | |
Republican | Lee Bright | 48,904 | 15.53% | |
Republican | Richard Cash | 26,325 | 8.30% | |
Republican | Det Bowers | 23,172 | 7.31% | |
Republican | Nancy Mace | 19,634 | 6.19% | |
Republican | Bill Connor | 16,912 | 5.34% | |
Republican | Benjamin Dunn | 3,209 | 1.01% | |
Total votes | 316,989 | 100.00% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Brad Hutto | Jay Stamper | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Clemson University | May 26 – June 2, 2014 | 400 | ± 6% | 8% | 3% | 89% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Brad Hutto | 87,552 | 76.65% | |
Democratic | Jay Stamper | 26,678 | 23.35% | |
Total votes | 114,230 | 100.00% |
In March 2014, with only controversial businessman and prankster Jay Stamper running for the Democrats, Dick Harpootlian, former chairman of the South Carolina Democratic Party, had stated that business leaders were working on an effort to recruit a potential independent candidate to run in case Graham was defeated in the primary. [48] Such a "contingency" plan was rendered moot by the entry of Democratic state senator Brad Hutto into the race. [48]
Former Republican state treasurer Thomas Ravenel had confirmed that was considering running for the Senate as an independent and was likely to do so if Lindsey Graham won the Republican primary. [56] In April 2014, with Graham polling strongly in the primary, Ravenel announced he would run. [57] He officially announced his candidacy on July 4. [58]
Graham initially declined to debate his opponents. A spokesman said that his campaign was "in discussions with other groups, as well as looking at the schedule." Hutto said that Graham is "terrified at the thought of defending his own record in a public debate" and Ravenel said Graham's decision was "highly arrogant and disrespectful." [59] Graham claimed he refused to debate because of the presence of independent candidate Thomas Ravenel, a convicted felon. He ultimately agreed to debate Hutto alone on October 27. [60]
The following are Federal Election Commission disclosures for the pre-primary reporting period.
Candidate (party) | Receipts | Disbursements .... | Cash on hand | Debt |
---|---|---|---|---|
Lindsey Graham (R) | $7,014,854 | $9,063,768 | $0 | $276,312 |
Brad Hutto (D) | $399,770 | $342,366 | $132,401 | $75,000 |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report [61] | Solid R | November 3, 2014 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [62] | Safe R | November 3, 2014 |
Rothenberg Political Report [63] | Safe R | November 3, 2014 |
Real Clear Politics [64] | Safe R | November 3, 2014 |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Lindsey Graham (R) | Brad Hutto (D) | Thomas Ravenel (I) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rasmussen Reports | July 9–10, 2014 | 750 | ± 4% | 49% | 30% | — | 10% | 11% |
Voter Survey Service | July 7–13, 2014 | 1,000 | ± 4% | 46% | 33% | — | 9% | 12% |
Voter Survey Service | July 16–20, 2014 | 650 | ± 4% | 45% | 33% | 10% | 4% [65] | 8% |
46% | 33% | — | 9% [65] | 12% | ||||
CBS News/NYT/YouGov | July 5–24, 2014 | 1,183 | ± 5.4% | 48% | 36% | — | 7% | 10% |
CBS News/NYT/YouGov | August 18 – September 2, 2014 | 833 | ± 5% | 42% | 29% | 8% | 2% | 19% |
Winthrop University | September 21–28, 2014 | 1,082 | ± 3% | 46.3% | 28% | 8% | 3.5% [66] | 14.3% |
CBS News/NYT/YouGov | September 20 – October 1, 2014 | 2,663 | ± 2% | 44% | 27% | 8% | 1% | 20% |
CBS News/NYT/YouGov | October 16–23, 2014 | 1,566 | ± 4% | 43% | 28% | 8% | 2% | 19% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Lindsey Graham (R) | Jay Stamper (D) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Harper Polling | October 27–28, 2013 | 676 | ± 3.77% | 47% | 30% | 23% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Nancy Mace (R) | Jay Stamper (D) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Harper Polling | October 27–28, 2013 | 676 | ± 3.77% | 40% | 33% | 27% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Lindsey Graham (incumbent) | 672,941 | 54.27% | -3.25% | |
Democratic | Brad Hutto [68] | 480,933 | 38.78% | -3.47% | |
Independent | Thomas Ravenel | 47,588 | 3.84% | N/A | |
Libertarian | Victor Kocher | 33,839 | 2.73% | N/A | |
Write-in | 4,774 | 0.38% | +0.15% | ||
Total votes | 1,240,075 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
Republican hold | |||||
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