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Turnout | 47.52% ![]() | ||||||||||||||||
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Ducey: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% DuVal: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% | |||||||||||||||||
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Elections in Arizona |
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The 2014 Arizona gubernatorial election was held on November 4, 2014, to elect the Governor of Arizona, concurrently with elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
Incumbent Republican Governor Jan Brewer was term-limited and could not run for re-election to a second consecutive full term in office. After a bitter six-candidate primary, Republicans nominated Arizona State Treasurer Doug Ducey; Democrat Fred DuVal, the former chairman of the Arizona Board of Regents, won his party's nomination unopposed. Ducey won the election with 53% of the vote. This election marked the first time since 1994 that no female gubernatorial candidate was on the ballot and that a man was elected governor of Arizona. This was the first open seat gubernatorial election in the state since 2002.
Democratic Governor Janet Napolitano resigned on January 21, 2009, to be sworn in as Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security. Since Arizona does not have a lieutenant governor, Secretary of State Jan Brewer was first in the state's gubernatorial line of succession and was sworn in as governor on the same day. She was elected to a full term in 2010, defeating Democrat Terry Goddard, the Arizona Attorney General, by 54% to 42%.
Brewer was term-limited in 2014, despite only serving one full term. This is because Arizona state law limits office holders to two consecutive terms regardless of whether they serve full or partial terms. In November 2012, Brewer declared she was looking into what she called "ambiguity" in Arizona's term-limit law to seek a third term. [2] In February 2014, Brewer reiterated that she was considering running for re-election, [3] but on March 12, 2014, she announced that she would not attempt to seek another term in office, which would have required what The Arizona Republic called a "long-shot court challenge". [4]
The Republican primary campaign was widely characterised as being "bitter" and "nasty" [5] [6] [7] [8] and the $16.2 million spent by the six Republican candidates means that the 2014 election has already broken the record for most expensive gubernatorial race in state history, exceeding the 2002 election in which $9.2 million was spent during the primary and general election campaigns combined. [9]
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Ken Bennett | Doug Ducey | Christine Jones | Al Melvin | John Molina | Frank Riggs | Scott Smith | Andrew Thomas | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Magellan Strategies | August 17–21, 2014 | 1,281 | ± 2.74% | 12% | 32% | 18% | — | — | 2% | 21% | 8% | 7% |
Harper Polling | August 19–20, 2014 | 812 | ± 3.44% | 14% | 32% | 16% | — | — | 2% | 19% | 7% | 10% |
Remington | August 17–19, 2014 | 502 | ± 4.37% | 10% | 33% | 18% | — | — | 1% | 22% | 11% | 5% |
Magellan Strategies | August 15–18, 2014 | 1,322 | ± ? | 12% | 31% | 17% | — | — | 3% | 22% | 8% | 7% |
Magellan Strategies | August 12–15, 2014 | 1,300 | ± ? | 10% | 31% | 16% | — | — | 3% | 23% | 7% | 10% |
Magellan Strategies | August 5–7, 2014 | 1,289 | ± 2.73% | 11% | 29% | 13% | — | — | 4% | 22% | 9% | 12% |
Magellan Strategies | July 28–31, 2014 | 1,644 | ± ? | 12% | 23% | 13% | — | — | 5% | 21% | 10% | 16% |
Undisclosed | Late July 2014 | ? | ± ? | 10% | 23% | 20% | — | — | 2% | 15% | 9% | 21% |
Harper Polling | July 16–17, 2014 | 885 | ± 3.29% | 12% | 23% | 21% | — | — | 1% | 13% | 7% | 22% |
Behavior Research Center | July 10–17, 2014 | 459 | ± 4.7% | 10% | 13% | 17% | — | — | 2% | 8% | 0% | 50% |
Gravis Marketing | July 14, 2014 | 691 | ± 4% | 7% | 28% | 19% | — | — | 1% | 14% | 8% | 24% |
Highground | July 10–12, 2014 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 3.5% | 17.3% | 15.3% | — | — | 1.5% | 9.8% | 3% | 49.8% |
Magellan Strategies | July 9–10, 2014 | 593 | ± 4.02% | 11% | 26% | 22% | — | — | 2% | 14% | 6% | 19% |
Harper Polling | June 25–26, 2014 | 791 | ± 3.48% | 12% | 33% | 15% | — | — | 2% | 14% | 3% | 22% |
McLaughlin & Associates | June 10, 2014 | 400 | ± 3.48% | 8% | 22.8% | 6.2% | — | — | — | 6.5% | — | 56.5% |
Magellan Strategies | June 3–4, 2014 | 630 | ± 3.9% | 12% | 28% | 12% | 2% | — | 2% | 16% | 5% | 23% |
Magellan Strategies | May 13–14, 2014 | 760 | ± 3.6% | 12.7% | 27.3% | 11.9% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 11.5% | 5.6% | 28.8% |
Undisclosed | April 29, 2014 | 1,367 | ± 3.5% | 7% | 4% | 10% | — | — | — | 9% | 5% | 65% |
Magellan Strategies | April 8–9, 2014 | ? | ± ? | 15% | 9% | 14% | — | — | 1% | 6% | 6% | 45% |
Public Policy Polling | Feb. 28–Mar. 2, 2014 | 403 | ± 4.9% | 20% | 6% | 16% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 12% | 9% | 34% |
Behavior Research Center | January 16–26, 2014 | 701 | ± 3.8% | 6% | 2% | 8% | 1% | — | — | 7% | 7% | 69% |
Susquehanna | Nov. 27–Dec. 4 2013 | 245 | ± ? | 20% | 8% | 4% | 2% | — | — | 6% | 4% | 56% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Doug Ducey | 200,607 | 37 | |
Republican | Scott Smith | 119,107 | 22 | |
Republican | Christine Jones | 89,922 | 17 | |
Republican | Ken Bennett | 62,010 | 11 | |
Republican | Andrew Thomas | 43,822 | 8 | |
Republican | Frank Riggs | 24,168 | 5 | |
Republican | Write-in | 1,804 | nil | |
Total votes | 541,440 | 100 |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Ron Cavanaugh | Fred DuVal | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Behavior Research Center | January 16–26, 2014 | ? | ± ? | 12% | 18% | 72% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Chad Campbell | Fred DuVal | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Myers Research | May 22–June 13, 2012 | ? | ± ? | 31% | 18% | 51% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Fred DuVal | 271,276 | 97 | |
Democratic | Write-in | 8,578 | 3 | |
Total votes | 279,854 | 100 |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Libertarian | Barry Hess | 3,979 | 75 | |
Libertarian | Write-in | 1,345 | 25 | |
Total votes | 5,324 | 100 |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Americans Elect | John Lewis Mealer | 722 | 95 | |
Americans Elect | Write-in | 38 | 5 | |
Total votes | 760 | 100 |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report [69] | Lean R | November 3, 2014 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [70] | Likely R | November 3, 2014 |
Rothenberg Political Report [71] | Lean R | November 3, 2014 |
Real Clear Politics [72] | Lean R | November 3, 2014 |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Doug Ducey (R) | Fred DuVal (D) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CBS News/NYT/YouGov | October 16–23, 2014 | 2,621 | ± 4% | 50% | 40% | 1% | 9% |
The Polling Company | October 20–22, 2014 | 601 | ± 4% | 42% | 35% | 7% [other 1] | 15% |
Rasmussen Reports | October 14–16, 2014 | 1,056 | ± 3% | 47% | 42% | 3% | 7% |
Tarrance Group | October 13–16, 2014 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 43% | 36% | 5% [other 1] | 16% |
McLaughlin & Associates | October 12–14, 2014 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 37% | 36% | 5% [other 2] | 22% |
Adrian Gray Consulting | October 8–9, 2014 | 600 | ± 4% | 43% | 35% | 8% [other 3] | 14% |
Moore Information | October 7–8, 2014 | 400 | ± ~4.9% | 36% | 39% | 4% [other 4] | 21% |
The Polling Company | October 6–8, 2014 | 600 | ± 4% | 46% | 37% | 5% [other 1] | 11% |
CBS News/NYT/YouGov | September 20–October 1, 2014 | 2,808 | ± 3% | 50% | 39% | 2% | 9% |
Keating Research | September 17–19, 2014 | 600 | ± 4% | 41% | 39% | 7% [other 1] | 13% |
Tarrance Group | September 15–17, 2014 | 505 | ± 4.5% | 44% | 38% | 7% [other 5] | 11% |
CBS News/NYT/YouGov | August 18–September 2, 2014 | 3,289 | ± 3% | 39% | 38% | 15% | 9% |
Rasmussen Reports | August 27–28, 2014 | 850 | ± 3% | 40% | 40% | — | 20% |
Public Policy Polling | August 24–25, 2014 | 588 | ± 4% | 35% | 35% | 12% [other 1] | 18% |
Public Policy Polling | February 28–March 2, 2014 | 870 | ± 3.3% | 35% | 36% | — | 29% |
Undisclosed | February 2014 | 500 | ± ? | 32% | 32% | 6% [other 1] | 30% |
Behavior Research Center | January 16–26, 2014 | 701 | ± 3.8% | 21% | 23% | — | 56% |
Susquehanna | November 27–December 4, 2013 | 600 | ± 4% | 36% | 33% | — | 31% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Ken Bennett (R) | Fred DuVal (D) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | February 28–March 2, 2014 | 870 | ± 3.3% | 37% | 33% | — | 30% |
Behavior Research Center | January 16–26, 2014 | 701 | ± 3.8% | 26% | 22% | — | 52% |
Susquehanna | November 27–December 4, 2013 | 600 | ± 4% | 38% | 33% | — | 28% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Christine Jones (R) | Fred DuVal (D) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CBS News/NYT/YouGov | July 5–24, 2014 | 3,778 | ± ? | 45% | 34% | 13% | 7% |
Public Policy Polling | February 28–March 2, 2014 | 870 | ± 3.3% | 33% | 37% | — | 30% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Al Melvin (R) | Fred DuVal (D) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | February 28–March 2, 2014 | 870 | ± 3.3% | 32% | 37% | — | 31% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | John Molina (R) | Fred DuVal (D) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | February 28–March 2, 2014 | 870 | ± 3.3% | 32% | 35% | — | 33% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Frank Riggs (R) | Fred DuVal (D) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | February 28–March 2, 2014 | 870 | ± 3.3% | 32% | 36% | — | 31% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Scott Smith (R) | Fred DuVal (D) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | February 28–March 2, 2014 | 870 | ± 3.3% | 39% | 33% | — | 28% |
Behavior Research Center | January 16–26, 2014 | 701 | ± 3.8% | 20% | 23% | — | 57% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Andrew Thomas (R) | Fred DuVal (D) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | February 28–March 2, 2014 | 870 | ± 3.3% | 35% | 40% | — | 25% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Doug Ducey | 805,062 | 53.4 | -0.9 | |
Democratic | Fred DuVal | 626,921 | 41.6 | -0.8 | |
Libertarian | Barry Hess | 57,337 | 3.8 | +1.6 | |
Americans Elect | John Lewis Mealer | 15,432 | 1.0 | N/A | |
None | J. Johnson (write-in) | 1,520 | 0.1 | N/A | |
Independent | Brian Bailey (write-in) | 50 | nil | N/A | |
Republican | Alice Novoa (write-in) | 43 | nil | N/A | |
Independent | Cary Dolego (write-in) | 29 | nil | N/A | |
None | Curtis Woolsey (write-in) | 15 | nil | N/A | |
Independent | Diane-Elizabeth R.R. Kennedy (write-in) | 7 | nil | N/A | |
Total votes | 1,506,416 | 100 | N/A | ||
Republican hold | |||||
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Ducey won 6 of the 9 congressional districts, including one that elected a Democrat. [75]
District | DuVal | Ducey | Representative |
---|---|---|---|
1st | 46.0% | 48.87% | Ann Kirkpatrick |
2nd | 46.95% | 48.73% | Martha McSally |
3rd | 56.31% | 38.77% | Raúl Grijalva |
4th | 27.43% | 66.84% | Paul Gosar |
5th | 32.64% | 62.83% | Matt Salmon |
6th | 37.56% | 58.27% | David Schweikert |
7th | 65.18% | 29.29% | Ruben Gallego |
8th | 33.64% | 61.2% | Trent Franks |
9th | 49.06% | 46.3% | Kyrsten Sinema |
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