2014 California gubernatorial election

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2014 California gubernatorial election
Flag of California.svg
  2010 November 4, 2014 2018  
Turnout30.94% (Decrease2.svg28.65 pp)
  Edmund G Brown Jr (3x4a).jpg Neel-kashkari (3x4a).jpg
Nominee Jerry Brown Neel Kashkari
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote4,388,3682,929,213
Percentage59.97%40.03%

2014 California gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
2014 California gubernatorial election results map by Congressional District.svg
Brown:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Kashkari:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%

Governor before election

Jerry Brown
Democratic

Elected Governor

Jerry Brown
Democratic

The 2014 California gubernatorial election was held on November 4, 2014, to elect the governor of California, concurrently with elections for the rest of California's executive branch, as well as elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Contents

Incumbent Democratic governor Jerry Brown ran for re-election to a second consecutive and fourth overall term in office. Although governors are limited to lifetime service of two terms in office, Brown previously served as governor from specifically 1975 to 1983, and the law only affects terms served after November 6, 1990. [1] [2] [3]

A primary election was held on June 3, 2014. Under California's nonpartisan blanket primary law, all candidates appear on the same ballot, regardless of party. In the primary, voters may vote for any candidate, regardless of their party affiliation. The top two finishers — regardless of party — advance to the general election in November, even if a candidate manages to receive a majority of the votes cast in the primary election. Washington is the only other state with this system, a so-called "top two primary" (Louisiana has a similar "jungle primary"). Brown and Republican Neel Kashkari finished first and second, respectively, and contested in the general election, [4] which Brown won. He won the largest gubernatorial victory since 1986, "despite running a virtually nonexistent campaign." [5] This was the first time since 1978 that a Democrat carried Nevada County.

Primary election

Republican candidate Kashkari campaigns at the San Diego LGBT Pride Parade. Neel Kashkari marching in the 2014 San Diego LGBT Pride Parade (1).jpg
Republican candidate Kashkari campaigns at the San Diego LGBT Pride Parade.

A certified list of candidates was released by the secretary of state on March 27, 2014. The primary election took place on Tuesday, June 3, 2014, from 7am to 8pm. [6]

Party candidacies

Democratic Party

Declared
Withdrew
  • Geby Espinosa, gym owner
  • Hanala Sagal, author and fitness personality
  • Michael Strimling, attorney
Declined

Republican Party

Declared
Withdrew
Declined

Libertarian Party

Declined

Green Party

Declared

American Independent Party

Endorsed Tim Donnelly [28]

Withdrew

Peace and Freedom Party

Declared

Independent

Declared
  • Bogdan Ambrozewicz, small business owner, Independent candidate for the State Senate in 2012 and Republican candidate for the State Assembly in 2011 [30]
  • Janel Buycks, minister/business owner [14] [31]
  • Rakesh Kumar Christian, small business owner, independent candidate for governor in 2010 [7]
  • Joe Leicht, golf course operator [14]
  • Robert Newman, psychologist, farmer and Republican candidate for governor in 2003, 2006, and 2010 [14]

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jerry
Brown (D)
Andrew
Blount (R)
Tim
Donnelly (R)
Neel
Kashkari (R)
Abel
Maldonado (R)
OtherUndecided
GQR [32] May 21–28, 2014626± 4.4%50%13%18%5%14%
SurveyUSA [33] May 16–19, 2014610± 4%57%18%11%4%10%
PPIC [34] May 8–15, 2014901± 4.9%48%15%10%1%27%
PPIC [35] April 8–15, 2014944± 5.1%46%3%9%2%2%38%
Field Poll [36] March 18–April 5, 2014504± 4.5%57%3%17%2%1%20%
PPIC [37] March 11–18, 2014936± 4.7%47%2%10%2%3%36%
Field Poll [38] November 15–December 3, 2013836± 3.5%52%9%3%11%25%
PPIC [39] November 12–19, 20131,081± 4.5%46%16%7%1%29%
Polling with all candidates listed
Clear Path Strategies poll of 1,000 likely voters, April 2–6, 2014. MoE: ±?
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Jerry Brown (incumbent) 45.6
Republican Tim Donnelly 18.3
Republican Glenn Champ7.3
Republican Andrew Blount5.4
Republican Alma Marie Winston4.1
Republican Neel Kashkari3.8
No party preference Robert Newman3.1
Democratic Akinyemi Agbede2.8
Green Luis J. Rodriguez 2.6
Peace and Freedom Cindy Sheehan 2.3
Republican Richard William Aguirre1.7
No party preference "Bo" Bogdan Ambrozewicz0.9
No party preference Janel Hyeshia Buycks0.8
No party preference Rakesh Kumar Christian0.7
No party preference Joe Leicht0.6
Total votes100

Results

Results by county:
.mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{}
Donnelly >= 30%
Brown >= 30%
Brown >= 40%
Brown >= 50%
Brown >= 60%
Brown >= 70%
Brown >= 80% 2014 California gubernatorial primary election results map by county.svg
Results by county:
  Donnelly ≥ 30%
  Brown ≥ 30%
  Brown ≥ 40%
  Brown ≥ 50%
  Brown ≥ 60%
  Brown ≥ 70%
  Brown ≥ 80%
California gubernatorial primary election, 2014 [40]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Jerry Brown (incumbent) 2,354,769 54.34%
Republican Neel Kashkari 839,767 19.38%
Republican Tim Donnelly 643,23614.85%
Republican Andrew Blount89,7492.07%
Republican Glenn Champ76,0661.76%
Green Luis J. Rodriguez 66,8721.54%
Peace and Freedom Cindy Sheehan 52,7071.22%
Republican Alma Marie Winston46,0421.06%
No party preference Robert Newman44,1201.02%
Democratic Akinyemi Agbede37,0240.85%
Republican Richard William Aguirre35,1250.81%
No party preference "Bo" Bogdan Ambrozewicz14,9290.35%
No party preference Janel Hyeshia Buycks12,1360.28%
No party preference Rakesh Kumar Christian11,1420.26%
No party preference Joe Leicht9,3070.22%
Write-In Karen Jill Bernal17<0.01%
Write-In Nickolas Wildstar17<0.01%
Write-In Jimelle L. Walls3<0.01%
Total votes4,333,028 100.00%
Turnout  14.67%

General election

Debates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [41] Solid DNovember 3, 2014
Sabato's Crystal Ball [42] Safe DNovember 3, 2014
Rothenberg Political Report [43] Safe DNovember 3, 2014
Real Clear Politics [44] Safe DNovember 3, 2014

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jerry
Brown (D)
Neel
Kashkari (R)
OtherUndecided
Zogby Analytics [45] October 28–31, 2014705± 3.8%51%33%16%
GQR/American Viewpoint [46] October 22–29, 20141,162± 3.3%56%37%7%
Field Poll [47] October 15–28, 2014941± 3.4%54%33%13%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov [48] October 16–23, 20147,463± 2%55%37%1%8%
PPIC [49] October 12–19, 20141,704± 3.5%52%36%12%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov [48] September 20 – October 1, 20147,943± 2%56%36%1%7%
PPIC [50] September 8–15, 2014916± 4.9%54%33%2%11%
LA Times/USC [51] September 2–9, 20141,089± 3.3%57%36%7%
GQR/AV [52] September 2–8, 20148,941± 2%57%32%11%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov [53] August 18 – September 2, 20148,941± 2%53%35%2%10%
Field Poll [54] August 14–28, 2014467± 4.8%50%34%16%
Gravis Marketing [55] July 22–24, 2014580± 4%52%35%13%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov [56] July 5–24, 20149,393± ?57%33%3%7%
PPIC [57] July 8–15, 2014984± 4.7%52%33%4%11%
Field Poll [58] June 5–22, 20142,013± 3.2%52%32%0%16%
Rasmussen Reports [59] June 4–5, 2014823± 4%52%33%5%10%
GQR [32] May 21–28, 2014626± 4.4%53%35%2%9%
MFour/Tulchin Research [60] August 27–30, 20131,001± 3.5%44%15%8%33%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jerry
Brown (D)
Tim
Donnelly (R)
OtherUndecided
GQR [32] May 21–28, 2014626± 4.4%54%32%3%11%
PPIC [61] January 14–21, 20141,706± 3.8%53%17%30%
MFour/Tulchin Research [62] August 27–30, 20131,001± 3.5%43%21%7%30%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jerry
Brown (D)
Abel
Maldonado (R)
OtherUndecided
MFour/Tulchin Research [62] August 27–30, 20131,001± 3.5%42%21%9%29%

Results

Brown won easily, by nearly twenty points. He outperformed his majority margin from 2010. As expected, Brown did very well in Los Angeles and in the San Francisco Bay Area. Kashkari conceded defeat right after the polls closed in California.

California gubernatorial election, 2014 [63]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Jerry Brown (incumbent) 4,388,368 59.97% +6.20%
Republican Neel Kashkari 2,929,21340.03%−0.86%
Turnout 7,317,58130.94−28.65
Total votes7,317,581 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

By county

County [64] Jerry Brown
Democratic
Neel Kashkari
Republican
MarginTotal votes cast
# %# %# %
Alameda 293,08182.17%63,59317.83%229,48864.34%356,674
Alpine 28461.87%17538.13%10923.75%459
Amador 5,68244.55%7,07155.45%-1,389-10.89%12,753
Butte 29,52047.79%32,24952.21%-2,729-4.42%61,769
Calaveras 6,87043.73%8,84156.27%1,97112.55%15,711
Colusa 1,78942.73%2,39857.27%-609-14.55%4,187
Contra Costa 174,40368.65%79,66031.35%94,74337.29%254,063
Del Norte 3,48849.64%3,53950.36%-51-0.73%7,027
El Dorado 27,91645.50%33,44354.50%-5,527-9.01%61,359
Fresno 76,14347.62%83,74452.38%-7,601-4.75%159,887
Glenn 2,04934.40%3,90865.60%-1,859-31.21%5,957
Humboldt 24,00364.61%13,14635.39%10,85729.23%37,149
Imperial 13,45764.26%7,48435.74%5,97328.52%20,941
Inyo 2,31742.68%3,11257.32%-795-14.64%5,429
Kern 54,26940.90%78,41759.10%-24,148-18.20%132,686
Kings 8,75239.20%13,57560.80%-4,823-21.60%22,327
Lake 10,72261.28%6,77538.72%3,94722.56%17,497
Lassen 2,21332.44%4,60967.56%-2,396-35.12%6,822
Los Angeles 978,14266.84%485,18633.16%492,95633.69%1,463,328
Madera 9,97437.22%16,82562.78%-6,851-25.36%26,799
Marin 69,75179.35%18,14720.65%51,60458.71%87,898
Mariposa 2,49938.23%4,03861.77%-1,539-23.54%6,537
Mendocino 17,34071.76%6,82528.24%10,51543.51%24,165
Merced 18,94550.13%18,84849.87%970.26%37,793
Modoc 77027.20%2,06172.80%-1,291-45.60%2,831
Mono 1,63253.09%1,44246.91%1906.18%3,074
Monterey 51,31569.43%22,59130.57%28,72438.87%73,906
Napa 25,84668.19%12,05931.81%13,78736.37%37,905
Nevada 20,97654.63%17,41945.37%3,5579.26%38,395
Orange 275,70744.43%344,81755.57%-69,110-11.14%620,524
Placer 51,24145.41%61,60454.59%-10,363-9.18%112,845
Plumas 2,96641.75%4,13958.25%-1,173-16.51%7,105
Riverside 165,34047.09%185,80552.91%-20,465-5.83%351,145
Sacramento 202,41662.33%122,34237.67%80,07424.66%324,758
San Benito 8,65463.52%4,96936.48%3,68527.05%13,623
San Bernardino 134,41746.86%152,45853.14%-18,041-6.29%286,875
San Diego 346,41951.07%331,94248.93%14,4772.13%678,361
San Francisco 196,74588.15%26,44211.85%170,30376.31%223,187
San Joaquin 62,61453.54%54,33146.46%8,2837.08%116,945
San Luis Obispo 46,60654.32%39,18645.68%7,4208.65%85,792
San Mateo 120,28075.22%39,61524.78%80,66550.45%159,895
Santa Barbara 64,91258.26%46,50341.74%18,40916.52%111,415
Santa Clara 288,73272.94%107,11327.06%181,61945.88%395,845
Santa Cruz 56,97778.61%15,49921.39%41,47857.23%72,476
Shasta 21,50938.06%35,00761.94%-13,498-23.88%56,516
Sierra 67944.21%85755.79%-178-11.59%1,536
Siskiyou 6,10344.16%7,71755.84%-1,614-11.68%13,820
Solano 57,87464.57%31,75435.43%26,12029.14%89,628
Sonoma 107,32874.75%36,24925.25%71,07949.51%143,577
Stanislaus 46,56651.54%43,78648.46%2,7803.08%90,352
Sutter 8,68842.73%11,64457.27%-2,956-14.54%20,332
Tehama 5,40835.21%9,95264.79%-4,544-29.58%15,360
Trinity 1,71144.17%2,16355.83%-452-11.67%3,874
Tulare 23,70838.42%37,99661.58%-14,288-23.16%61,704
Tuolumne 7,958146.75%9,05853.25%-1,107-6.51%17,009
Ventura 106,07253.07%93,79746.93%12,2756.14%199,869
Yolo 31,43169.12%14,04330.88%17,38838.24%45,474
Yuba 5,16641.62%7,24558.38%-2,079-16.75%12,411
Total4,388,36859.97%2,929,21340.03%1,459,15519.94%7,317,581

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Brown won 41 of the 53 congressional districts, including two held by Republicans. [65]

DistrictKashkariBrownRepresentative
1st 56.5%43.5% Doug LaMalfa
2nd 26.5%73.5% Jared Huffman
3rd 44.0%56.0% John Garamendi
4th 55.1%44.9% Tom McClintock
5th 27.3%72.6% Mike Thompson
6th 27.3%72.7% Doris Matsui
7th 43.8%56.2% Ami Bera
8th 62.3%37.7% Paul Cook
9th 44.9%55.1% Jerry McNerney
10th 48.3%51.7% Jeff Denham
11th 29.6%70.4% Mark DeSaulnier
12th 11.4%88.6% Nancy Pelosi
13th 8.8%91.2% Barbara Lee
14th 22.5%77.5% Jackie Speier
15th 30.3%69.7% Eric Swalwell
16th 45.6%54.4% Jim Costa
17th 25.4%74.6% Mike Honda
18th 28.4%71.6% Anna Eshoo
19th 26.6%73.4% Zoe Lofgren
20th 27.0%73.0% Sam Farr
21st 47.6%52.4% David Valadao
22nd 60.3%39.7% Devin Nunes
23rd 64.5%35.5% Kevin McCarthy
24th 43.4%56.6% Lois Capps
25th 57.2%42.8% Steve Knight
26th 44.9%55.1% Julia Brownley
27th 37.7%62.3% Judy Chu
28th 28.8%71.2% Adam Schiff
29th 26.2%73.8% Tony Cárdenas
30th 35.7%64.3% Brad Sherman
31st 47.9%52.1% Pete Aguilar
32nd 40.2%59.8% Grace Napolitano
33rd 38.4%61.6% Ted Lieu
34th 16.3%83.7% Xavier Becerra
35th 39.4%60.6% Norma Torres
36th 47.4%52.6% Raul Ruiz
37th 16.2%83.8% Karen Bass
38th 42.7%57.3% Linda Sánchez
39th 55.5%45.5% Ed Royce
40th 23.8%76.2% Lucille Roybal-Allard
41st 45.5%54.5% Mark Takano
42nd 63.2%36.8% Ken Calvert
43rd 27.4%72.6% Maxine Waters
44th 20.1%79.9% Janice Hahn
45th 58.5%41.5% Mimi Walters
46th 40.5%59.5% Loretta Sánchez
47th 43.5%56.5% Alan Lowenthal
48th 57.6%42.4% Dana Rohrabacher
49th 55.0%45.0% Darrell Issa
50th 64.0%36.0% Duncan Hunter
51st 33.8%66.2% Juan Vargas
52nd 47.7%52.3% Scott Peters
53rd 40.0%60.0% Susan Davis

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References

  1. "Summary of Qualifications and Requirements for the Offices of Governor and Lieutenant Governor". California Secretary of State Department. Archived from the original on July 6, 2014. Retrieved May 24, 2014.
  2. "Campaign Finance: Brown For Governor 2014". California Secretary of State. Retrieved August 6, 2013.
  3. "Brown Shows Early Lead for 2014 California Gubernatorial Race". IVN. Archived from the original on August 8, 2013. Retrieved August 6, 2013.
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