2014 United States Senate election in Kansas

Last updated

2014 United States Senate election in Kansas
Flag of Kansas.svg
  2008 November 4, 2014 2020  
  Pat Roberts official Senate photo (cropped).jpg Orman52414D4-536 (1).jpg
Nominee Pat Roberts Greg Orman
Party Republican Independent
Popular vote460,350368,372
Percentage53.15%42.53%

2014 KS US Senate.svg
County results
Roberts:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
Orman:     50–60%     60–70%

U.S. senator before election

Pat Roberts
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Pat Roberts
Republican

The 2014 United States Senate election in Kansas was held on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Kansas, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Contents

Incumbent Republican Senator Pat Roberts was re-elected to a fourth term against Independent Greg Orman and Libertarian nominee Randall Batson. The Democratic nominee, Chad Taylor, withdrew from the race.

Republican primary

Roberts gained negative press attention after criticism that he did not own a home in Kansas, with some comparing the situation to that of former Indiana Senator Richard Lugar, who lost a 2012 Senate primary after a similar residency controversy. [1] Roberts owns a home in Alexandria, Virginia. [2] The primary was held August 5, 2014. [3]

Primary opponent Milton R. Wolf, a radiologist, was under investigation by a state medical ethics board for posting X-ray images of dead patients with macabre commentary to Facebook. [4]

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Endorsements

Milton Wolf

Individuals

Organizations

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Pat
Roberts
D.J.
Smith
Milton
Wolf
Alvin
Zahnter
OtherUndecided
The Tarrance Group^ January 13–15, 2014501± 4.5%69%15%16%
Public Policy Polling February 18–20, 2014375± 5.1%49%23%28%
SurveyUSA June 19–23, 2014508± 4.4%56%23%8%12%
GEB International July 9, 2014500± 4.28%42%30%28%
SurveyUSA July 17–22, 2014691± 3.8%50%6%30%3%12%
Daily Kos/Google Consumer Surveys August 4, 20141,002± 3.1%53.4%39.1%7.5%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Pat
Roberts
Someone more
conservative
Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 18–20, 2014375± 5.1%43%39%18%
Public Policy Polling February 21–24, 2013760± 3.6%42%34%24%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Pat
Roberts
Tim
Huelskamp
Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 21–24, 2013760± 3.6%53%22%26%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Pat
Roberts
Kris
Kobach
Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 21–24, 2013760± 3.6%55%19%26%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Pat
Roberts
Todd
Tiahrt
Undecided
Public Policy Polling February 21–24, 2013760± 3.6%47%26%27%

Results

Results by county:
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Roberts
40-50%
50-60%
60-70%
70-80%
Wolf
40-50%
50-60% Kansas U.S. Senate Republican primary, 2014.svg
Results by county:
  Roberts
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Wolf
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
Republican primary results [33]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Pat Roberts (incumbent) 127,089 48.08%
Republican Milton Wolf107,79940.78%
Republican D.J. Smith15,2885.78%
Republican Alvin E. Zahnter13,9355.26%
Total votes264,340 100.00%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Chad
Taylor
Patrick
Wiesner
Undecided
KSN News/SurveyUSA July 17–22, 2014322± 5.6%48%17%35%
KSN News/SurveyUSA June 19–23, 2014252± 6.3%41%16%43%

Results

Results by county:
Taylor
50-60%
60-70%
70-80%
80-90%
Wiesner
50-60%
60-70%
Tie
50-60% Kansas U.S. Senate Democratic primary, 2014.svg
Results by county:
  Taylor
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  Wiesner
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
Tie
  •   50–60%
Democratic primary results [33]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Chad Taylor 35,067 53.3%
Democratic Patrick Wiesner30,75246.7%
Total votes65,819 100.0%

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Declared

  • Randall Batson, nominee for the State House in 2012 [38]

Independents

Candidates

Declared

  • Greg Orman, businessman, who briefly ran in the Democratic primary in 2008 before dropping out. [39] [40]

General election

Campaign

On September 3, Democratic nominee Chad Taylor withdrew from the race. [41] On September 4, Kris Kobach, the Republican Kansas Secretary of State, announced that Taylor would remain on the ballot because state law demands he declare himself "incapable of fulfilling the duties of office if elected" in order to be removed, which he did not do. [42] Taylor challenged the decision, and on September 18 the Kansas Supreme Court decided that his name would be taken off the ballot. [43]

On the same day, Kobach demanded the chairman of the Democratic Party name a replacement in eight days, saying he will consider litigation to force the party if they refuse. [44]

A registered Democrat with family ties to Republican Governor Sam Brownback's campaign also filed a petition with the Kansas Supreme Court on September 18 to force the Democratic Party to name a new candidate. [45] Kobach ordered ballots to be mailed to overseas voters on September 20 without a Democratic candidate, but included a disclaimer that another ballot will be sent if the Democratic Party names a replacement candidate. [46]

The state district court in Shawnee County threw out the petition, meaning no replacement for Taylor needed to be named. [47]

In the 2002 Senate election, Roberts also had no Democratic opponent.

Roberts defeated Orman in the general election, winning reelection to a fourth term in office.

If Orman had been elected, the U.S. Senate would have had three independent Senators for the first time in the chamber's history. This—and the question of whom Orman would choose to caucus with if elected—were very large questions in the electoral contest, and because the Kansas race was showing tight in the polls, a subject of considerable national political discourse as well. [48]

Fundraising

CandidateRaisedSpentCash on HandDebt
Greg Orman (I)$2,461,766$3,298,186$183,599$1,124,982
Pat Roberts (R)$5,383,491$5,534,415$927,4490

Debates

Endorsements

Greg Orman (I)
Individuals
Organizations
Pat Roberts (R)
National politicians
Kansas statewide politicians
State Senators
State representatives
Organizations

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [62] TossupNovember 3, 2014
Sabato's Crystal Ball [63] Lean RNovember 3, 2014
Rothenberg Political Report [64] TossupNovember 3, 2014
Real Clear Politics [65] TossupNovember 3, 2014

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Pat
Roberts (R)
Chad
Taylor (D)
Greg
Orman (I)
Randall
Batson (L)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling February 18–20, 2014693± 3.7%48%32%20%
Rasmussen Reports April 16–17, 2014750± 4%50%32%5%13%
SurveyUSA June 19–23, 20141068± 3.1%43%33%7%5%12%
SurveyUSA July 17–22, 20141,208± 2.9%38%33%14%4%10%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov July 5–24, 20141,281± 6.1%53%37%7%4%
Rasmussen Reports August 6–7, 2014750± 4%44%40%7%8%
Public Policy Polling August 14–17, 2014903± 3.3%32%25%23%3%17%
43%39%17%
33%43%24%
KSN News/SurveyUSA August 20–23, 2014560± 4.2%37%32%20%4%6%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov August 18 – September 2, 2014839± 5%47%35%2%15%
KSN News/SurveyUSA September 4–7, 2014555± 4.2%36%10%37%6%11%
Public Policy Polling September 11–14, 20141,328± 2.7%34%6% [lower-alpha 1] 41%4%15%
36%46%17%
Fox News September 14–16, 2014604± 4%40%11% [lower-alpha 2] 38%4%8%
42%48%8%
Rasmussen Reports September 16–17, 2014750± 4%40%3% [lower-alpha 3] 45%2%10%
39%9% [lower-alpha 4] 38%2%12%
Remington Research September 23, 2014625± 3.91%42%50%3%5%
Suffolk University September 27–30, 2014500± 4.4%41.2%46.4%0.8%11.6%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov September 20 – October 1, 20142,013± 3%40%40%2%0%17%
NBC News/Marist September 27 – October 1, 2014511 LV± 4.3%38%48%5%1%9%
848 RV± 3.4%36%46%5%1%12%
Gravis Marketing September 30 – October 1, 2014850± 3%40%47%13%
SurveyUSA October 2–5, 2014549± 4.3%42%47%4%7%
CNN/ORC October 2–6, 2014687± 3.5%49%48%3%
Fox News October 4–7, 2014702± 3.5%44%39%3%4%12%
Rasmussen Reports October 7–8, 2014750± 4%40%52%4%4%
Public Policy Polling October 9–12, 20141,081± 3%41%44%5%10%
43%46%11%
Remington Research October 9–12, 20141,091± 2.97%48%46%2%4%
Monmouth University October 16–19, 2014429± 4.7%46%46%3%5%
Rasmussen Reports October 20–21, 2014960± 3%44%49%3%5%
Gravis Marketing October 20–21, 20141,124± 3%45%47%8%
NBC News/Marist October 18–22, 2014757 LV± 3.6%44%45%4%<1%7%
1,055 RV± 3%42%45%4%1%9%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov October 16–23, 20141,973± 4%42%38%1%0%18%
Survey USA October 22–26, 2014623± 4%42%44%4%10%
Fox News October 28–30, 2014907± 3%43%44%3%1%8%
YouGov October 25–31, 20141,137± 4.8%38%37%2%2%22%
Public Policy Polling October 30–31, 2014752± ?47%46%3%4%
Public Policy Polling November 1–3, 2014963± 3.2%46%47%3%4%
47%49%3%
Hypothetical polling
With Huelskamp
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Tim
Huelskamp (R)
Carl
Brewer (D)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling February 21–24, 20131,229± 2.8%40%36%24%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Tim
Huelskamp (R)
Mark
Parkinson (D)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling February 21–24, 20131,229± 2.8%41%35%24%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Tim
Huelskamp (R)
Kathleen
Sebelius (D)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling February 21–24, 20131,229± 2.8%46%41%13%
With Roberts
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Pat
Roberts (R)
Carl
Brewer (D)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling February 21–24, 20131,229± 2.8%50%34%16%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Pat
Roberts (R)
Mark
Parkinson (D)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling February 21–24, 20131,229± 2.8%49%34%17%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Pat
Roberts (R)
Kathleen
Sebelius (D)
OtherUndecided
Rasmussen Reports April 16–17, 2014750± 4%54%37%5%4%
Public Policy Polling February 18–20, 2014693± 3.7%52%38%10%
Public Policy Polling February 21–24, 20131,229± 2.8%51%40%9%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Pat
Roberts (R)
Patrick
Wiesner (D)
Randall
Batson (L)
Greg
Orman (I)
OtherUndecided
SurveyUSA June 19–23, 20141068± 3.1%45%29%6%8%12%
SurveyUSA July 17–22, 20141,208± 2.9%40%27%5%17%11%
With Wolf
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Milton
Wolf (R)
Kathleen
Sebelius (D)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling February 18–20, 2014693± 3.7%46%39%15%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Milton
Wolf (R)
Chad
Taylor (D)
Randall
Batson (L)
Greg
Orman (I)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling February 18–20, 2014693± 3.7%33%32%35%
SurveyUSA June 19–23, 20141068± 3.1%33%36%6%7%18%
SurveyUSA July 17–22, 20141,208± 2.9%33%34%5%14%14%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Milton
Wolf (R)
Patrick
Wiesner (D)
Randall
Batson (L)
Greg
Orman (I)
OtherUndecided
SurveyUSA June 19–23, 20141068± 3.1%36%30%6%8%20%
SurveyUSA July 17–22, 20141,208± 2.9%35%28%5%16%16%

Results

United States Senate election in Kansas, 2014 [67]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Pat Roberts (incumbent) 460,350 53.15% -6.91%
Independent Greg Orman 368,37242.53%N/A
Libertarian Randall Batson37,4694.32%+2.20%
Total votes866,191 100.00% N/A
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Independent

Counties that flipped from Republican to Independent

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

See also

Notes

  1. Poll did not tell respondents that Taylor has withdrawn until after they answered [66]
  2. Poll did not tell respondents that Taylor has withdrawn
  3. Rasmussen does not specify whether respondents were given the option of voting for a withdrawn Taylor, or they specifically named him
  4. With Taylor still listed on the ballot

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References

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