2011 Kentucky gubernatorial election

Last updated

2011 Kentucky gubernatorial election
Flag of Kentucky.svg
←  2007 November 8, 2011 2015  →
Turnout28.3% Decrease2.svg 8.9 pp
  Steve Beshear by Gage Skidmore (1).jpg David L. Williams (1).jpg Gatewood Gailbraith 2011 (1).jpg
Nominee Steve Beshear David L. Williams Gatewood Galbraith
Party Democratic Republican Independent
Running mate Jerry Abramson Richie Farmer Dea Riley
Popular vote464,245294,03474,860
Percentage55.72%35.29%8.99%
2011 Kentucky gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
2011 Kentucky gubernatorial election results map by congressional district.svg
Beshear:      40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
Williams:      40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
Governor before election

Steve Beshear
Democratic

Elected Governor

Steve Beshear
Democratic

The 2011 Kentucky gubernatorial election was held on November 8, 2011, to elect the governor of Kentucky and the lieutenant governor of Kentucky. Incumbent Democrat Steve Beshear won re-election, defeating Republican challenger David L. Williams, then the president of the state senate, and Gatewood Galbraith, an independent candidate. Statewide turnout in this election was 28%. [1]

Contents

Background

On July 19, 2009, Beshear announced his intention to run for re-election. However, in that announcement, he stated that then-Louisville mayor Jerry Abramson would be his running mate in 2011 [2] instead of current Lt. Governor Daniel Mongiardo, who chose to run for the U.S. Senate in 2010. [3] Kentucky state law requires that gubernatorial candidates file to run with running mates, otherwise they cannot legally raise money. Beshear wanted to fundraise and this would have required Mongiardo also saying that he was running in 2011, which he couldn't do. [4] Beshear and Abramson did not face any opposition for the Democratic nomination.

Among Republicans, Kentucky State Senate President David Williams from Burkesville announced his official candidacy along with running mate Richie Farmer, the term-limited State Agriculture Commissioner and former Kentucky Wildcats basketball player. [5] Louisville businessman Phil Moffett also announced his ticket with State Representative Mike Harmon from Danville as his running mate. [6] Moffett was seen as the Tea Party favorite. [7] However, Williams also advocated for similar positions as Moffett, such as the repeal of the Seventeenth Amendment to the United States Constitution [8] and promoting tax reforms similar to what Moffett proposed.

Attorney Gatewood Galbraith of Lexington filed to run his fourth gubernatorial campaign as an independent on July 4, 2009, choosing marketing consultant Dea Riley as his running mate.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Results

Democratic primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Steve Beshear (incumbent) 446,048 100.00%
Total votes446,048 100.00%

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

  • Bobbie Holsclaw, Jefferson County Clerk, 1998–2010, 2014–present [9]
    • Running mate: Bill Vermillion, retired U.S. Navy master chief
  • Phil Moffett, Louisville businessman [10] [11] and Tea Party activist [7]
    • Running mate: Mike Harmon, state representative, 2003–2016
  • David L. Williams, state senate president, 2000–2012; state senator 1987–2012; and nominee for U.S. Senate in 1992 [12]
    • Running mate: Richie Farmer, Kentucky Agriculture Commissioner, 2004–2012

Polling

Poll SourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Bobbie
Holsclaw		Phil
Moffett		David
Williams		Undecided
Survey USA [13] May 4–10, 2011500± 4.5%12%21%47%21%
Survey USA [14] April 8–13, 2011507± 4.4%12%14%49%25%

Results

Results by county: .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Williams 40-50% 50-60% 60-70% 70-80% 80-90% Moffett 40-50% 50-60% 60-70% 70-80% Holsclaw 30-40% Tie 40-50% 2011 Kentucky gubernatorial election Republican primary results map by county.svg
Results by county:
  Williams
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  Moffett
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Holsclaw
  •   30–40%
  Tie
  •   40–50%
Republican primary results [15]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican David Williams 68,528 48.0%
Republican Phil Moffett53,96638.0%
Republican Bobbie Holsclaw19,61414.0%
Total votes142,108 100.0%

Independents

Declared

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Rothenberg Political Report [17] Lean DNovember 4, 2011
Governing [18] Lean DNovember 4, 2011
Cook [19] Lean DNovember 4, 2011
Sabato [20] Likely DNovember 4, 2011

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Steve
Beshear (D)		David
Williams (R)		Gatewood
Galbraith (I)		Undecided
Survey USA [21] October 28 – November 1, 2011576± 4.2%54%29%9%8%
Braun Research [22] October 17–19, 2011802± 3.5%54%26%8%12%
Survey USA [23] September 22–27, 2011569± 4.2%57%26%8%9%
Braun Research [24] August 29–31, 2011803± 3.5%54%25%7%14%
Public Policy Polling [25] August 25–28, 2011600± 4.0%55%28%10%8%
Survey USA [26] July 22–27, 2011512± 4.4%52%28%9%11%
Braun Research [27] June 6–8, 2011802± 3.5%51%30%6%14%
Survey USA [14] April 8–13, 20111,589± 2.5%51%39%—10%
Braun Research [28] February 28 – March 1, 2011804± 3.5%48%38%—14%
Public Policy Polling [29] October 28–30, 20101,021± 3.1%44%35%—21%
Mason-Dixon [30] October 18–19, 2010625± 4.0%45%30%5%20%
Public Policy Polling [31] September 11–12, 2010959± 3.2%44%39%—17%
Braun Research [32] August 30 – September 1, 2010802± 3.5%44%38%—18%
Braun Research [33] July 19–21, 2010803± 3.4%48%30%—20%
Hypothetical polling

With Moffett

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Steve
Beshear (D)		Phil
Moffett (R)		Gatewood
Galbraith (I)		Other/
Undecided
Survey USA [14] April 8–13, 20111,589± 2.5%54%34%—13%
Braun Research [28] February 28-March 1, 2011804± 3.5%53%28%—19%
Public Policy Polling [29] October 28–30, 20101,021± 3.1%45%26%—29%
Mason-Dixon [34] October 18–19, 2010625± 4.0%43%24%6%26%
Public Policy Polling [31] September 11–12, 2010959± 3.2%46%28%—26%
Braun Research [32] September 1, 2010——49%29%—22%

With Holsclaw

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Steve
Beshear (D)		Bobbie
Holsclaw (R)		Gatewood
Galbraith (I)		Other/
Undecided
Survey USA [14] April 8–13, 20111,589± 2.5%53%34%—13%
Braun Research [28] February 28 – March 1, 2011804± 3.5%53%27%—21%

Results

[35]

Kentucky gubernatorial election, 2011
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Steve Beshear (incumbent) 464,245 55.72% −2.99%
Republican David L. Williams 294,03435.29%−6.00%
Independent Gatewood Galbraith 74,8608.99%+8.99%
Total votes833,139 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Beshear won all 6 congressional districts, including four represented by Republicans. [36]

DistrictBeshearWilliamsGalbraithRepresentative
1st 54%41%5% Ed Whitfield
2nd 57%38%6% Brett Guthrie
3rd 67%27%6% John Yarmuth
4th 53%40%6% Geoff Davis
5th 47%44%8% Hal Rogers
6th 56%23%21% Ben Chandler

See also

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References

  1. ↑ "Election summary". Archived from the original on February 11, 2021. Retrieved May 1, 2021.
  2. ↑ Gerth, Joseph (July 19, 2009). "Abramson to be Beshear's running mate in 2011". The Courier-Journal. Archived from the original on January 2, 2013. Retrieved July 20, 2009.
  3. ↑ Ronnie Ellis (March 27, 2009). "Beshear endorses Mongiardo for Senate". News-tribune.net. Archived from the original on February 22, 2013. Retrieved August 18, 2012.
  4. ↑ "Mongiardo considers running for Senate".
  5. ↑ Alford, Roger (October 28, 2009). "Farmer mulls run for governor". Lexington Herald-Leader. Retrieved October 28, 2009.
  6. ↑ Arnold, Joe (July 29, 2010). "Phil Moffett announces candidacy for governor | WHAS11.com Louisville". Whas11.com. Archived from the original on March 5, 2012. Retrieved August 18, 2012.
  7. 1 2 Brammer, Jack (November 15, 2010). "David Williams and Phil Moffett in a battle for the Republican Party's soul". Lexington Herald Leader. Retrieved February 5, 2020.
  8. ↑ Jack Brammer, Lexington Herald Leader, November 19, 2010 "Williams pushes repeal of 17th amendment"
  9. ↑ Newton, Dave (January 25, 2011). "Stage Set For the Primary Election". Kentuckians For The Commonwealth. Retrieved February 2, 2020.
  10. ↑ "Louisville businessman Phil Moffett running for governor : Bluegrass Politics". Bluegrasspolitics.bloginky.com. July 29, 2010. Retrieved August 18, 2012.
  11. ↑ "Republican Phil Moffett announces gubernatorial campaign, hopes for Tea Party support". Apex MediaWire. July 29, 2009. Archived from the original on March 26, 2012. Retrieved July 29, 2009.
  12. ↑ Brammer, Jack (September 2, 2010). "David Williams and Richie Farmer form slate to seek state's top offices". Lexington Herald-Leader. Archived from the original on September 3, 2010. Retrieved September 2, 2010.
  13. ↑ Survey USA
  14. 1 2 3 4 Survey USA
  15. ↑ "KY – Election Results" . Retrieved August 18, 2012.
  16. ↑ Blackford, Linda B. (October 13, 2011). "Dea Riley brings energy, and baggage, to Gatewood Galbraith's campaign". Lexington Herald Leader. Retrieved February 2, 2020.
  17. ↑ "Gubernatorial Ratings | Inside Elections". www.insideelections.com.
  18. ↑ "An Update on the 2011-2012 Gubernatorial Contests". Governing. July 25, 2011. Archived from the original on August 1, 2011.
  19. ↑ "2011/2012 GOVERNORS RACE RATINGS". The Cook Political Report. September 15, 2011. Archived from the original on October 7, 2011.
  20. ↑ "2012 Governor". Sabato's Crystal Ball.
  21. ↑ Survey USA
  22. ↑ Braun Research
  23. ↑ Survey USA
  24. ↑ Braun Research
  25. ↑ Public Policy Polling [ dead link ]
  26. ↑ Survey USA
  27. ↑ Braun Research
  28. 1 2 3 Braun Research
  29. 1 2 Public Policy Polling
  30. ↑ Mason-Dixon Archived May 18, 2011, at the Wayback Machine
  31. 1 2 Public Policy Polling
  32. 1 2 Braun Research [ permanent dead link ]
  33. ↑ Braun Research
  34. ↑ Mason-Dixon Archived May 18, 2011, at the Wayback Machine
  35. ↑ "KY – Election Results" . Retrieved August 18, 2012.
  36. ↑ https://x.com/kentucky_kiwi/status/1690856927197024258

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