2014 Rhode Island gubernatorial election

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2014 Rhode Island gubernatorial election
Flag of Rhode Island.svg
  2010 November 4, 2014 2018  
  Rhode island governor visits NAVSTA Newport (cropped).jpg Cranston mayor Allan Fung.jpg Robert J. Healey.jpg
Nominee Gina Raimondo Allan Fung Robert J. Healey
Party Democratic Republican Moderate
Popular vote131,899117,42869,278
Percentage40.70%36.24%21.38%

2014 Rhode Island gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
2014 Rhode Island gubernatorial election results map by municipality.svg
RIGov2014.svg
Raimondo:     30–40%     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
Fung:     30–40%     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%
Healey:     30–40%     40–50%
Tie:     No Votes:     

Governor before election

Lincoln Chafee
Democratic

Elected Governor

Gina Raimondo
Democratic

The 2014 Rhode Island gubernatorial election took place on November 4, 2014, to elect the governor of Rhode Island, concurrently with the election of Rhode Island's Class II U.S. Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Contents

Incumbent Democratic governor Lincoln Chafee was eligible to run for re-election to a second term but decided to retire. In primary elections held on September 9, 2014, the Democrats nominated Rhode Island Treasurer Gina Raimondo and the Republicans nominated Cranston Mayor Allan Fung. Also on the ballot were Robert J. Healey of the Moderate Party and two Independent candidates. Raimondo won the election, becoming the first Democrat to be elected governor since Bruce Sundlun in 1992 (Chafee had been elected as an Independent in 2010, switching to the Democratic Party during his term). Raimondo became the first female governor in Rhode Island history.

Background

In the 2010 gubernatorial election, Republican incumbent Donald Carcieri was term-limited and unable to seek a third term in office. The Republicans nominated businessman John Robitaille and the Democrats nominated State Treasurer Frank T. Caprio. Also contesting the election were Moderate Party nominee Ken Block and Lincoln Chafee, who served as a Republican U.S. senator from 1999 to 2007. After losing a bid for re-election in 2006, Chafee left the Republican Party and became an Independent, running for governor as such. After a close three-way race between Chafee, Robitaille and Caprio, Chafee won the election with a plurality, taking 36% to Robitaille's 34%, Caprio's 23% and Block's 6%.

After constant speculation during his term, Chafee officially joined the Democratic Party on May 30, 2013. He had previously indicated that he might run for re-election as an Independent or a Democrat. [1] In the face of low approval ratings, polling showing him trailing in both the Democratic primary and the general election, and with weak fundraising, Chafee announced on September 4, 2013 that he would not run for re-election. [2] [3] Chafee thus became just the fourth governor in the history of Rhode Island to decline to seek a second term, after Byron Diman in 1847, Royal C. Taft in 1889 and William S. Flynn in 1924. [4]

Democratic primary

Gina Raimondo and Angel Taveras announced their campaigns in late 2013 and the race initially seemed to be between the more fiscally moderate Raimondo and the more progressive Taveras. However, the entry of Clay Pell into the race complicated things. Unions who had criticised Raimondo for cutting pension benefits and investing in hedge funds during her tenure as Treasurer and for fundraising from Wall Street and national lobbyists were split between whether to back Taveras or Pell. A coalition of unions including firefighters, police, supermarket clerks and city employees backed Taveras, whereas the powerful teachers' unions backed Pell, unimpressed with Taveras' support for charter schools. Raimondo drew support from non-union and private sector workers and some private sector unions including iron workers. Pell spent over $3.4 million of his own money and ran a positive campaign, but he was much criticised for his inexperience and lack of ties to Rhode Island. Taveras emphasised his background as the son of poor Dominican immigrants to appeal to Latino and working-class voters. All three candidates agreed not to seek the endorsement of the state Democratic Party. Ultimately, Taveras and Pell took an almost equal share of the vote as progressive Democrats split their vote between the two, allowing Raimondo to win with a plurality. Raimondo won 36 of the state's 39 municipalities. Taveras won Central Falls and Pell won Burrillville and Foster. [5]

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Todd
Giroux
Clay
Pell
Gina
Raimondo
Angel
Taveras
Other/
Undecided
Fleming & Associates August 11–14, 2014503± 4.38%1.4%25.6%32.2%26.8%12.9%
Fleming & Associates May 27–30, 2014506± 4.38%1.6%11.5%29.2%33.4%24.3%
Brown University April 3–5, 2014395± 4.9%9.6%29.4%25.8%35.2%
Fleming & Associates February 3–6, 2014503± 4.38%1.2%14.7%27%31.2%25.9%
Brown University October 2–5, 2013433± 4.5%42%33.6%24.4%
Garin-Hart-Yang^ September 10–12, 2013400± 5%30%49%21%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Lincoln
Chafee
Ernie
Almonte
Gina
Raimondo
Angel
Taveras
Other/
Undecided
Public Policy Polling January 28–30, 2013320± 5.5%22%11%35%19%12%
9%44%35%13%

Results

Results by municipality:
Raimondo
.mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{}
Raimondo--30-40%
Raimondo--40-50%
Raimondo--50-60%
Raimondo--60-70%
Pell
Pell--30-40%
Pell--40-50%
Taveras
Taveras--50-60% Rhode Island Democratic gubernatorial primary results by municipality, 2014.svg
Results by municipality:
Raimondo
  •   Raimondo—30–40%
  •   Raimondo—40–50%
  •   Raimondo—50–60%
  •   Raimondo—60–70%
Pell
  •   Pell—30–40%
  •   Pell—40–50%
Taveras
  •   Taveras—50–60%
Democratic primary results [14]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Gina Raimondo 53,990 42.15
Democratic Angel Taveras37,32629.14
Democratic Clay Pell34,51526.94
Democratic Todd Giroux2,2641.77
Total votes128,095 100.00

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Ken
Block
Allan
Fung
Other/
Undecided
Fabrizio, Lee & Ass. * April 2014300± ?46%37%17%
Brown University April 3–5, 201486± 10.6%36%31.4%38.5%
Fabrizio, Lee & Ass. * October 2013 ?± ?25%53%22%

Results

Results by county:
Fung--50-60%
Block--50-60% 2014RIGOVGOP.svg
Results by county:
  Fung—50–60%
  Block—50–60%
Results by municipality:
Fung
Fung--50-60%
Fung--60-70%
Fung--70-80%
Block
Block--50-60%
Block--60-70% Rhode Island Republican gubernatorial primary results by municipality, 2014.svg
Results by municipality:
Fung
  •   Fung—50–60%
  •   Fung—60–70%
  •   Fung—70–80%
Block
  •   Block—50–60%
  •   Block—60–70%
Republican primary results [14]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Allan Fung 17,530 54.9
Republican Ken Block14,39945.1
Total votes31,929 100.0

Other parties

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

  • Ken Block (Moderate), nominee for governor in 2010 (switched to Republican primary) [15]
  • James Spooner (Moderate) [23]

Removed from ballot

  • Thomas Davis (Independent)
  • Christopher Reynolds (Independent)
  • Anna Winograd Vrankar (Compassion)

Declined

  • Gina Raimondo (Independent), Democratic Treasurer of Rhode Island (won the Democratic primary) [24]

General election

Campaign

Union voter dissatisfaction with Raimondo carried over into the general election, with one poll finding they backed Republican Allan Fung over her, 42% to 30%. [25] Moderate Party nominee Robert J. Healey won 22% of the vote, having spent $35.31 to receive 67,707 votes, or $0.0005 (five ten-thousandths of a dollar) for each vote he received. [26] He later joked, "It's amazing what $35 can do. As I've been saying, if we only spent $75, $80, we might've won the race." [27]

Debates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [28] TossupNovember 3, 2014
Sabato's Crystal Ball [29] Lean DNovember 3, 2014
Rothenberg Political Report [30] Tilt DNovember 3, 2014
Real Clear Politics [31] TossupNovember 3, 2014

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Gina
Raimondo (D)
Allan
Fung (R)
Robert J.
Healey (M)
OtherUndecided
Brown University October 25–26, 2014500± 4.4%40%39%13%1% [32] 11%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov October 16–23, 2014866± 6%40%35%4%21%
Brown University October 14–17, 20141,129± 2.9%42%31%9%1% [33] 18%
Fleming & Associates October 6–9, 2014505± 4%42%36%8%1% [34] 14%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov September 20–October 1, 2014724± 4%41%38%2%19%
Rasmussen Reports September 23–25, 2014750± 4%42%37%11%11%
Public Opinion Strategies* September 10–11, 2014500± 4.38%42%42%16%
Brown University October 2–5, 2013638± 3.9%38%36%27%
Public Policy Polling January 28–30, 2013614± 4%46%27%12% [35] 14%
Hypothetical polling
With Raimondo
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Gina
Raimondo (D)
Brendan
Doherty (R)
Ken
Block (I)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling January 28–30, 2013614± 4%44%32%10%14%
With Taveras
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Angel
Taveras (D)
Ken
Block (R)
OtherUndecided
CBS News/NYT/YouGov July 5–24, 2014919± 3.4%49%24%15%13%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Angel
Taveras (D)
Brendan
Doherty (R)
Ken
Block (I)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling January 28–30, 2013614± 4%39%35%13%13%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Angel
Taveras (D)
Allan
Fung (R)
Ken
Block (I)
OtherUndecided
CBS News/NYT/YouGov August 18–September 2, 2014764± 4%33%33%20%14%
Brown University October 2–5, 2013638± 3.9%42%33%26%
Public Policy Polling January 28–30, 2013614± 4%37%31%15%17%
With Chafee
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Lincoln
Chafee (D)
Brendan
Doherty (R)
Ken
Block (I)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling January 28–30, 2013614± 4%35%39%13%9%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Lincoln
Chafee (D)
Allan
Fung (R)
Ken
Block (I)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling January 28–30, 2013614± 4%32%36%16%15%
Four-way race
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Lincoln
Chafee (I)
Gina
Raimondo (D)
Brendan
Doherty (R)
Ken
Block (I)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling January 28–30, 2013614± 4%22%32%28%8%9%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Lincoln
Chafee (I)
Gina
Raimondo (D)
Allan
Fung (R)
Ken
Block (I)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling January 28–30, 2013614± 4%21%35%23%10%12%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Lincoln
Chafee (I)
Angel
Taveras (D)
Brendan
Doherty (R)
Ken
Block (I)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling January 28–30, 2013614± 4%23%26%31%10%10%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Lincoln
Chafee (I)
Angel
Taveras (D)
Allan
Fung (R)
Ken
Block (I)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling January 28–30, 2013614± 4%20%26%26%13%14%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Gina
Raimondo (D)
Angel
Taveras (D)
Allan
Fung (R)
Ken
Block (I)
Undecided
Brown University October 2–5, 2013638± 4.5%27%21%19%9%24%

Results

Rhode Island gubernatorial election, 2014 [36]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Gina Raimondo 131,899 40.70% +17.65%
Republican Allan Fung 117,42836.24%+2.67%
Moderate Robert J. Healey 69,27821.38%+14.91%
Independent Kate Fletcher3,4831.07%N/A
Independent Leon Kayarian1,2280.38%N/A
Write-in 7390.23%N/A
Turnout 324,055100%N/A
Democratic hold

By county

Gina Raimondo
Democratic
Allan Fung
Republican
Robert J. Healey
Moderate
OthersTotal
CountyVotes %Votes %Votes %Votes %
Bristol 7,31239.88%4,80626.21%6,06033.05%1580.86%18,336
Kent 20,17634.19%23,00938.99%14,93725.31%8931.51%59,015
Newport 12,88843.74%10,12234.35%5,89820.01%5601.90%29,468
Providence 73,26243.16%61,51936.24%32,08618.90%2,8831.70%169,750
Washington 18,26138.46%17,97237.85%10,29721.68%9562.01%47,486

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Counties that flipped from Independent to Democratic

By municipality

Gina Raimondo
Democratic
Allan Fung
Republican
Robert J. Healey
Moderate
OthersTotal
MunicipalityVotes %Votes %Votes %Votes %
Barrington 3,56649.6%2,02228.1%1,55421.6%500.7%7,192
Bristol 2,62835.7%1,95926.6%2,70936.8%751.0%7,368
Burrillville 1,33428.6%1,86139.9%1,37129.4%1042.2%4,670
Central Falls 1,35966.4%35817.5%28013.7%502.4%2,047
Charlestown 1,17738.0%1,13736.7%72823.5%591.9%3,101
Coventry 3,81230.2%4,97939.4%3,61028.6%2331.8%12,634
Cranston 8,15930.2%14,85355.0%3,71613.8%2781.0%27,006
Cumberland 4,66139.9%4,32537.0%2,47821.2%2201.9%11,684
East Greenwich 2,36442.3%2,31541.4%84815.2%651.2%5,592
East Providence 5,95843.5%3,71827.1%3,80427.8%2251.6%13,705
Exeter 77128.4%1,14742.3%74227.3%532.0%2,713
Foster 53428.0%73238.3%60431.6%402.1%1,910
Glocester 96327.2%1,50342.5%1,01928.8%551.5%3,540
Hopkinton 83630.9%1,08039.9%72326.7%682.3%2,707
Jamestown 1,32546.2%90131.4%59020.6%631.9%2,879
Johnston 3,27032.6%4,50244.9%2,12621.2%1341.5%10,032
Lincoln 2,97436.2%3,24939.6%1,87022.8%1191.4%8,212
Little Compton 67441.2%64839.7%28817.6%221.4%1,632
Middletown 2,24141.9%1,90235.5%1,09020.4%1192.3%5,352
Narragansett 2,39539.3%2,41039.6%1,19819.7%841.4%6,087
New Shoreham 36550.3%17424.0%17323.8%141.9%726
Newport 3,73449.4%2,31230.6%1,33117.6%1772.3%7,554
North Kingstown 4,16637.6%4,30538.8%2,42221.8%1951.7%11,088
North Providence 4,01336.1%4,50540.6%2,41421.7%1701.6%11,102
North Smithfield 1,45633.2%1,87042.7%98622.5%681.6%4,380
Pawtucket 7,14451.8%3,39124.6%2,96021.5%2842.1%13,779
Portsmouth 2,82441.1%2,47736.1%1,42620.8%1362.0%6,863
Providence 24,66265.0%8,44522.3%4,11610.8%7201.9%37,943
Richmond 85129.5%1,15340.0%82528.6%531.8%2,882
Scituate 1,17025.5%2,20348.1%1,14625.0%631.3%4,582
Smithfield 2,58733.7%3,24142.2%1,72522.5%1191.6%7,672
South Kingstown 4,60643.1%3,56233.3%2,29121.4%2332.2%10,692
Tiverton 2,09039.8%1,88235.9%1,17322.4%1032.0%5,248
Warren 1,11829.6%82521.9%1,79747.6%330.9%3,773
Warwick 10,55935.0%11,38337.7%7,79525.8%4281.4%30,165
West Greenwich 60525.0%1,09745.3%68428.3%331.3%2,419
West Warwick 2,83634.6%3,23539.4%2,00024.4%1341.6%8,205
Westerly 3,09441.3%3,00440.1%1,19516.0%1972.6%7,490
Woonsocket 3,01840.6%2,76337.2%1,47119.8%1822.4%7,434

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  12. Lt. Gov. Roberts won't challenge Chafee Archived May 15, 2013, at the Wayback Machine
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  16. Rob Borkowski (November 4, 2013). "Mayor Fung Announces Bid For Governor". Woonsocket Patch. Archived from the original on November 5, 2013. Retrieved November 4, 2013.
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  32. Kate Fletcher (I) 1%, Leon Kayarian (I) 0%
  33. Kate Fletcher (I) 0%, Leon Kayarian (I) 1%
  34. Kate Fletcher (I) 0%, Leon Kayarian (I) 0%
  35. Ken Block (I)
  36. RI.gov: Election Results
Official campaign websites (Archived)