2014 Rhode Island gubernatorial election

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2014 Rhode Island gubernatorial election
Flag of Rhode Island.svg
  2010 November 4, 2014 2018  
  Rhode island governor visits NAVSTA Newport (cropped).jpg Cranston mayor Allan Fung.jpg Robert J. Healey.jpg
Nominee Gina Raimondo Allan Fung Robert J. Healey
Party Democratic Republican Moderate
Popular vote131,899117,42869,278
Percentage40.70%36.24%21.38%

2014 Rhode Island gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
2014 Rhode Island gubernatorial election results map by municipality.svg
RIGov2014.svg
Raimondo:     30–40%     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
Fung:     30–40%     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%
Healey:     30–40%     40–50%
Tie:     No Votes:     

Governor before election

Lincoln Chafee
Democratic

Elected Governor

Gina Raimondo
Democratic

The 2014 Rhode Island gubernatorial election took place on November 4, 2014, to elect the governor of Rhode Island, concurrently with the election of Rhode Island's Class II U.S. Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Contents

Incumbent Democratic governor Lincoln Chafee was eligible to run for re-election to a second term but decided to retire. In primary elections held on September 9, 2014, the Democrats nominated Rhode Island Treasurer Gina Raimondo and the Republicans nominated Cranston Mayor Allan Fung. Also on the ballot were Robert J. Healey of the Moderate Party and two Independent candidates.

Raimondo won the election, becoming the first Democrat to be elected governor since Bruce Sundlun in 1992 (Chafee had been elected as an Independent in 2010, switching to the Democratic Party during his term). Raimondo became the first female governor in Rhode Island history. Democrats won Newport County for the first time in a gubernatorial election since 1998, and Bristol and Washington counties since 1992.

Background

In the 2010 gubernatorial election, Republican incumbent Donald Carcieri was term-limited and unable to seek a third term in office. The Republicans nominated businessman John Robitaille and the Democrats nominated State Treasurer Frank T. Caprio. Also contesting the election were Moderate Party nominee Ken Block and Lincoln Chafee, who served as a Republican U.S. senator from 1999 to 2007. After losing a bid for re-election in 2006, Chafee left the Republican Party and became an Independent, running for governor as such. After a close three-way race between Chafee, Robitaille and Caprio, Chafee won the election with a plurality, taking 36% to Robitaille's 34%, Caprio's 23% and Block's 6%.

After constant speculation during his term, Chafee officially joined the Democratic Party on May 30, 2013. He had previously indicated that he might run for re-election as an Independent or a Democrat. [1] In the face of low approval ratings, polling showing him trailing in both the Democratic primary and the general election, and with weak fundraising, Chafee announced on September 4, 2013, that he would not run for re-election. [2] [3] Chafee thus became just the fourth governor in the history of Rhode Island to decline to seek a second term, after Byron Diman in 1847, Royal C. Taft in 1889 and William S. Flynn in 1924. [4]

Democratic primary

Gina Raimondo and Angel Taveras announced their campaigns in late 2013 and the race initially seemed to be between the more fiscally moderate Raimondo and the more progressive Taveras. However, the entry of Clay Pell into the race complicated things. Unions who had criticised Raimondo for cutting pension benefits and investing in hedge funds during her tenure as Treasurer and for fundraising from Wall Street and national lobbyists were split between whether to back Taveras or Pell. A coalition of unions including firefighters, police, supermarket clerks and city employees backed Taveras, whereas the powerful teachers' unions backed Pell, unimpressed with Taveras' support for charter schools. Raimondo drew support from non-union and private sector workers and some private sector unions including iron workers. Pell spent over $3.4 million of his own money and ran a positive campaign, but he was much criticised for his inexperience and lack of ties to Rhode Island. Taveras emphasised his background as the son of poor Dominican immigrants to appeal to Latino and working-class voters. All three candidates agreed not to seek the endorsement of the state Democratic Party. Ultimately, Taveras and Pell took an almost equal share of the vote as progressive Democrats split their vote between the two, allowing Raimondo to win with a plurality. Raimondo won 36 of the state's 39 municipalities. Taveras won Central Falls and Pell won Burrillville and Foster. [5]

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Todd
Giroux
Clay
Pell
Gina
Raimondo
Angel
Taveras
Other/
Undecided
Fleming & Associates [14] August 11–14, 2014503± 4.38%1.4%25.6%32.2%26.8%12.9%
Fleming & Associates [15] May 27–30, 2014506± 4.38%1.6%11.5%29.2%33.4%24.3%
Brown University [16] April 3–5, 2014395± 4.9%9.6%29.4%25.8%35.2%
Fleming & Associates [17] February 3–6, 2014503± 4.38%1.2%14.7%27%31.2%25.9%
Brown University [18] October 2–5, 2013433± 4.5%42%33.6%24.4%
Garin-Hart-Yang^ [19] September 10–12, 2013400± 5%30%49%21%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Lincoln
Chafee
Ernie
Almonte
Gina
Raimondo
Angel
Taveras
Other/
Undecided
Public Policy Polling [20] January 28–30, 2013320± 5.5%22%11%35%19%12%
9%44%35%13%

Results

Results by municipality:
Raimondo
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Raimondo--30-40%
Raimondo--40-50%
Raimondo--50-60%
Raimondo--60-70%
Pell
Pell--30-40%
Pell--40-50%
Taveras
Taveras--50-60% Rhode Island Democratic gubernatorial primary results by municipality, 2014.svg
Results by municipality:
Raimondo
  •   Raimondo—30–40%
  •   Raimondo—40–50%
  •   Raimondo—50–60%
  •   Raimondo—60–70%
Pell
  •   Pell—30–40%
  •   Pell—40–50%
Taveras
  •   Taveras—50–60%
Democratic primary results [21]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Gina Raimondo 53,990 42.15
Democratic Angel Taveras37,32629.14
Democratic Clay Pell34,51526.94
Democratic Todd Giroux2,2641.77
Total votes128,095 100.00

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Ken
Block
Allan
Fung
Other/
Undecided
Fabrizio, Lee & Ass.* [28] April 2014300± ?46%37%17%
Brown University [16] April 3–5, 201486± 10.6%36%31.4%38.5%
Fabrizio, Lee & Ass.* [28] October 2013 ?± ?25%53%22%

Results

Results by county:
Fung--50-60%
Block--50-60% 2014RIGOVGOP.svg
Results by county:
  Fung—50–60%
  Block—50–60%
Results by municipality:
Fung
Fung--50-60%
Fung--60-70%
Fung--70-80%
Block
Block--50-60%
Block--60-70% Rhode Island Republican gubernatorial primary results by municipality, 2014.svg
Results by municipality:
Fung
  •   Fung—50–60%
  •   Fung—60–70%
  •   Fung—70–80%
Block
  •   Block—50–60%
  •   Block—60–70%
Republican primary results [21]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Allan Fung 17,530 54.9
Republican Ken Block14,39945.1
Total votes31,929 100.0

Other parties

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

  • Ken Block (Moderate), nominee for governor in 2010 (switched to Republican primary) [22]
  • James Spooner (Moderate) [31]

Removed from ballot

  • Thomas Davis (Independent)
  • Christopher Reynolds (Independent)
  • Anna Winograd Vrankar (Compassion)

Declined

  • Gina Raimondo (Independent), Democratic Treasurer of Rhode Island (won the Democratic primary) [32]

General election

Campaign

Union voter dissatisfaction with Raimondo carried over into the general election, with one poll finding they backed Republican Allan Fung over her, 42% to 30%. [33] Moderate Party nominee Robert J. Healey won 22% of the vote, having spent $35.31 to receive 67,707 votes, or $0.0005 (five ten-thousandths of a dollar) for each vote he received. [34] He later joked, "It's amazing what $35 can do. As I've been saying, if we only spent $75, $80, we might've won the race." [35]

Debates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [36] TossupNovember 3, 2014
Sabato's Crystal Ball [37] Lean DNovember 3, 2014
Rothenberg Political Report [38] Tilt DNovember 3, 2014
Real Clear Politics [39] TossupNovember 3, 2014

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Gina
Raimondo (D)
Allan
Fung (R)
Robert J.
Healey (M)
OtherUndecided
Brown University [40] October 25–26, 2014500± 4.4%40%39%13%1% [41] 11%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov [42] October 16–23, 2014866± 6%40%35%4%21%
Brown University [43] October 14–17, 20141,129± 2.9%42%31%9%1% [44] 18%
Fleming & Associates [45] October 6–9, 2014505± 4%42%36%8%1% [46] 14%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov [47] September 20–October 1, 2014724± 4%41%38%2%19%
Rasmussen Reports [48] September 23–25, 2014750± 4%42%37%11%11%
Public Opinion Strategies* [49] September 10–11, 2014500± 4.38%42%42%16%
Brown University [18] October 2–5, 2013638± 3.9%38%36%27%
Public Policy Polling [20] January 28–30, 2013614± 4%46%27%12% [50] 14%
Hypothetical polling

With Raimondo

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Gina
Raimondo (D)
Brendan
Doherty (R)
Ken
Block (I)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling [20] January 28–30, 2013614± 4%44%32%10%14%

With Taveras

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Angel
Taveras (D)
Ken
Block (R)
OtherUndecided
CBS News/NYT/YouGov [51] July 5–24, 2014919± 3.4%49%24%15%13%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Angel
Taveras (D)
Brendan
Doherty (R)
Ken
Block (I)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling [20] January 28–30, 2013614± 4%39%35%13%13%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Angel
Taveras (D)
Allan
Fung (R)
Ken
Block (I)
OtherUndecided
CBS News/NYT/YouGov [52] August 18–September 2, 2014764± 4%33%33%20%14%
Brown University [18] October 2–5, 2013638± 3.9%42%33%26%
Public Policy Polling [20] January 28–30, 2013614± 4%37%31%15%17%

With Chafee

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Lincoln
Chafee (D)
Brendan
Doherty (R)
Ken
Block (I)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling [20] January 28–30, 2013614± 4%35%39%13%9%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Lincoln
Chafee (D)
Allan
Fung (R)
Ken
Block (I)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling [20] January 28–30, 2013614± 4%32%36%16%15%

Four-way race

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Lincoln
Chafee (I)
Gina
Raimondo (D)
Brendan
Doherty (R)
Ken
Block (I)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling [20] January 28–30, 2013614± 4%22%32%28%8%9%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Lincoln
Chafee (I)
Gina
Raimondo (D)
Allan
Fung (R)
Ken
Block (I)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling [20] January 28–30, 2013614± 4%21%35%23%10%12%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Lincoln
Chafee (I)
Angel
Taveras (D)
Brendan
Doherty (R)
Ken
Block (I)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling [20] January 28–30, 2013614± 4%23%26%31%10%10%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Lincoln
Chafee (I)
Angel
Taveras (D)
Allan
Fung (R)
Ken
Block (I)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling [20] January 28–30, 2013614± 4%20%26%26%13%14%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Gina
Raimondo (D)
Angel
Taveras (D)
Allan
Fung (R)
Ken
Block (I)
Undecided
Brown University [18] October 2–5, 2013638± 4.5%27%21%19%9%24%

Results

Rhode Island gubernatorial election, 2014 [53]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Gina Raimondo 131,899 40.70% +17.65%
Republican Allan Fung 117,42836.24%+2.67%
Moderate Robert J. Healey 69,27821.38%+14.91%
Independent Kate Fletcher3,4831.07%N/A
Independent Leon Kayarian1,2280.38%N/A
Write-in 7390.23%N/A
Turnout 324,055100%N/A
Democratic hold

By county

Gina Raimondo
Democratic
Allan Fung
Republican
Robert J. Healey
Moderate
OthersTotal
CountyVotes %Votes %Votes %Votes %
Bristol 7,31239.88%4,80626.21%6,06033.05%1580.86%18,336
Kent 20,17634.19%23,00938.99%14,93725.31%8931.51%59,015
Newport 12,88843.74%10,12234.35%5,89820.01%5601.90%29,468
Providence 73,26243.16%61,51936.24%32,08618.90%2,8831.70%169,750
Washington 18,26138.46%17,97237.85%10,29721.68%9562.01%47,486

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Counties that flipped from Independent to Democratic

By municipality

Gina Raimondo
Democratic
Allan Fung
Republican
Robert J. Healey
Moderate
OthersTotal
MunicipalityVotes %Votes %Votes %Votes %
Barrington 3,56649.6%2,02228.1%1,55421.6%500.7%7,192
Bristol 2,62835.7%1,95926.6%2,70936.8%751.0%7,368
Burrillville 1,33428.6%1,86139.9%1,37129.4%1042.2%4,670
Central Falls 1,35966.4%35817.5%28013.7%502.4%2,047
Charlestown 1,17738.0%1,13736.7%72823.5%591.9%3,101
Coventry 3,81230.2%4,97939.4%3,61028.6%2331.8%12,634
Cranston 8,15930.2%14,85355.0%3,71613.8%2781.0%27,006
Cumberland 4,66139.9%4,32537.0%2,47821.2%2201.9%11,684
East Greenwich 2,36442.3%2,31541.4%84815.2%651.2%5,592
East Providence 5,95843.5%3,71827.1%3,80427.8%2251.6%13,705
Exeter 77128.4%1,14742.3%74227.3%532.0%2,713
Foster 53428.0%73238.3%60431.6%402.1%1,910
Glocester 96327.2%1,50342.5%1,01928.8%551.5%3,540
Hopkinton 83630.9%1,08039.9%72326.7%682.3%2,707
Jamestown 1,32546.2%90131.4%59020.6%631.9%2,879
Johnston 3,27032.6%4,50244.9%2,12621.2%1341.5%10,032
Lincoln 2,97436.2%3,24939.6%1,87022.8%1191.4%8,212
Little Compton 67441.2%64839.7%28817.6%221.4%1,632
Middletown 2,24141.9%1,90235.5%1,09020.4%1192.3%5,352
Narragansett 2,39539.3%2,41039.6%1,19819.7%841.4%6,087
New Shoreham 36550.3%17424.0%17323.8%141.9%726
Newport 3,73449.4%2,31230.6%1,33117.6%1772.3%7,554
North Kingstown 4,16637.6%4,30538.8%2,42221.8%1951.7%11,088
North Providence 4,01336.1%4,50540.6%2,41421.7%1701.6%11,102
North Smithfield 1,45633.2%1,87042.7%98622.5%681.6%4,380
Pawtucket 7,14451.8%3,39124.6%2,96021.5%2842.1%13,779
Portsmouth 2,82441.1%2,47736.1%1,42620.8%1362.0%6,863
Providence 24,66265.0%8,44522.3%4,11610.8%7201.9%37,943
Richmond 85129.5%1,15340.0%82528.6%531.8%2,882
Scituate 1,17025.5%2,20348.1%1,14625.0%631.3%4,582
Smithfield 2,58733.7%3,24142.2%1,72522.5%1191.6%7,672
South Kingstown 4,60643.1%3,56233.3%2,29121.4%2332.2%10,692
Tiverton 2,09039.8%1,88235.9%1,17322.4%1032.0%5,248
Warren 1,11829.6%82521.9%1,79747.6%330.9%3,773
Warwick 10,55935.0%11,38337.7%7,79525.8%4281.4%30,165
West Greenwich 60525.0%1,09745.3%68428.3%331.3%2,419
West Warwick 2,83634.6%3,23539.4%2,00024.4%1341.6%8,205
Westerly 3,09441.3%3,00440.1%1,19516.0%1972.6%7,490
Woonsocket 3,01840.6%2,76337.2%1,47119.8%1822.4%7,434

References

  1. Klepper, David (December 14, 2012). "RI Gov. Chafee open to running for 2nd term as Dem". Boston.com. Associated Press . Retrieved December 18, 2012.
  2. Sullivan, Sean (September 4, 2013). "Why Lincoln Chafee's decision not to run for reelection is more good news for Democrats". The Washington Post. Retrieved September 6, 2013.
  3. 1 2 Taylor, Jessica (September 4, 2013). "Gov. Chafee won't run for a second term". NBC News. Retrieved September 6, 2013.
  4. Ostermeier, Eric (September 6, 2013). "Chafee Just 4th Rhode Island Governor Since 1790 to Pass On 2nd Term". Smart Politics. Archived from the original on October 4, 2013. Retrieved September 6, 2013.
  5. Stephanie Simon (September 8, 2014). "Dem divisions on display in Rhode Island race". Politico. Retrieved September 25, 2015.
  6. Faccenda, Anthony (October 4, 2013). "The Scoop: Giroux to Run for Gov, RI Tea Party Talks Obamacare". GoLocalProv. Retrieved October 20, 2013.
  7. The Associated Press (January 27, 2014). "Clay Pell, husband of Michelle Kwan, to run for Rhode Island gov". POLITICO . Retrieved January 27, 2014.
  8. Nesi, Ted (December 18, 2013). "Gina Raimondo announces she'll run for governor". WPRI-TV . Archived from the original on December 22, 2013. Retrieved December 18, 2013.
  9. Gregg, Katherine (October 26, 2013). "Providence Mayor Taveras confirms run for R.I. governor". The Providence Journal . Retrieved October 28, 2013.
  10. 1 2 DeQuattro, Dee (April 30, 2013). "Almonte to run for General Treasurer, not Governor". ABC 6. Archived from the original on May 7, 2013. Retrieved May 1, 2013.
  11. Nesi, Ted (May 16, 2013). "Ernie Almonte abandons campaign for governor to run for RI treasurer". WPRI. Archived from the original on June 13, 2013. Retrieved May 17, 2013.
  12. Lt. Gov. Roberts won't challenge Chafee Archived May 15, 2013, at the Wayback Machine
  13. "Former Congressman Bob Weygand mulling run for governor - WPRI.com Blogs". Archived from the original on September 12, 2014. Retrieved September 12, 2014.
  14. Fleming & Associates
  15. Fleming & Associates
  16. 1 2 Brown University
  17. Fleming & Associates
  18. 1 2 3 4 Brown University
  19. Garin-Hart-Yang^
  20. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Public Policy Polling
  21. 1 2 "2014 Statewide Primary". State of Rhode Island Board of Elections. Retrieved September 10, 2014.
  22. 1 2 Gregg, Katherine (October 28, 2013). "Ken Block, Moderate Party's 2010 candidate for governor, seeking GOP nomination in 2014". The Providence Journal . Retrieved October 28, 2013.
  23. Rob Borkowski (November 4, 2013). "Mayor Fung Announces Bid For Governor". Woonsocket Patch. Archived from the original on November 5, 2013. Retrieved November 4, 2013.
  24. Nesi, Ted (July 12, 2013). "Warwick's Avedisian may run for lieutenant governor in '14". WPRI-TV . Archived from the original on July 15, 2013. Retrieved August 10, 2013.
  25. Kalunian, Kim (May 17, 2013). "NEWS: Brendan Doherty will not seek office in 2014". Archived from the original on October 29, 2013. Retrieved May 20, 2013.
  26. "Dan McGowan on Twitter: "Barry Hinckley tells me he has no interest in running for Governor. Clears field for @peterbaptista"" . Retrieved September 12, 2014.
  27. "Robitaille says no plans to run for RI governor". NBC 10. Associated Press. October 18, 2013. Archived from the original on October 26, 2013. Retrieved October 20, 2013.
  28. 1 2 Fabrizio, Lee & Ass. *
  29. Towne, Shaun (September 12, 2014). "Moderate candidate Healey could impact governor's race". WPRI. Archived from the original on September 14, 2014. Retrieved September 14, 2014.
  30. 1 2 "12 candidates file papers in RI governor's race". NBC 10 News . June 25, 2014. Retrieved June 26, 2014.
  31. Katherine Gregg (September 15, 2014). "R.I. GOP challenges Healey as Moderate Party's 11th-hour candidate for governor". Providence Journal. Retrieved September 24, 2014.
  32. Nesi, Ted (October 26, 2013). "The Saturday Morning Post: Quick hits on politics & more in RI". WPRI. Archived from the original on October 28, 2013. Retrieved October 29, 2013.
  33. "Pension Cuts Cost Democrat Union Support in Rhode Island". Wall Street Journal. October 28, 2014. Retrieved November 7, 2014.
  34. "Bob Healey spent $0.0005 for every vote he got". WPRI-12. November 5, 2014. Archived from the original on November 7, 2014. Retrieved November 7, 2014.
  35. "Healey: It's amazing what $35 can do". WPRI-12. November 5, 2014. Retrieved November 7, 2014.
  36. "2014 Governor Race Ratings for November 3, 2014". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 3, 2018.
  37. "The Crystal Ball's Final 2014 Picks". Sabato's Crystal Ball. November 3, 2014. Retrieved September 3, 2018.
  38. "2014 Gubernatorial Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 3, 2018.
  39. "2014 Elections Map - 2014 Governors Races". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 3, 2018.
  40. Brown University
  41. Kate Fletcher (I) 1%, Leon Kayarian (I) 0%
  42. CBS News/NYT/YouGov
  43. Brown University
  44. Kate Fletcher (I) 0%, Leon Kayarian (I) 1%
  45. Fleming & Associates
  46. Kate Fletcher (I) 0%, Leon Kayarian (I) 0%
  47. CBS News/NYT/YouGov
  48. Rasmussen Reports
  49. Public Opinion Strategies*
  50. Ken Block (I)
  51. CBS News/NYT/YouGov
  52. CBS News/NYT/YouGov
  53. RI.gov: Election Results

Official campaign websites (Archived)