2014 United States Senate election in Minnesota

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2014 United States Senate election in Minnesota
Flag of Minnesota.svg
  2008 November 4, 2014 (2014-11-04) 2018
(special)
 
  Al Franken, official portrait, 114th Congress (cropped).jpg Mike McFadden, CD4 Convention, April 2014.png
Nominee Al Franken Mike McFadden
Party Democratic (DFL) Republican
Popular vote1,053,205850,227
Percentage53.15%42.91%

2014 United States Senate election in Minnesota results map by county.svg
2014 United States Senate election in Minnesota results map by congressional district.svg
MinnesotaSenate2014Township.svg
MN Senate 2014.svg
Franken:     40-50%     50-60%     60-70%     70-80%     80-90%     >90%
McFadden:     30–40%     40-50%     50-60%     60-70%     70-80%     80-90%     >90%
Tie:     40-50%     50%
     No votes

U.S. senator before election

Al Franken
Democratic (DFL)

Elected U.S. Senator

Al Franken
Democratic (DFL)

The 2014 United States Senate election in Minnesota was held on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Minnesota, concurrently with the election of the Governor of Minnesota, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Contents

Incumbent Democratic–Farmer–Labor Senator Al Franken ran for re-election to a second term. Primary elections were held on August 12, 2014, in which Franken was renominated and the Republicans picked financial executive Mike McFadden. In the general election, Franken defeated him and Independence Party nominee Steve Carlson and Heather Johnson of the Libertarian Party with 53% of the vote. As of 2023, this is the last time that a man won a United States Senate election in Minnesota. This is also the last time that the winner of Minnesota's Class 2 Senate seat won a majority of Minnesota's counties.

Background

Franken challenged incumbent Republican Senator Norm Coleman in 2008. When the initial count was completed on November 18, Franken was trailing Coleman by 215 votes. [1] [2] This close margin triggered a mandatory recount. [3] [4] After reviewing ballots that had been challenged during the recount and counting 953 wrongly rejected absentee ballots, the State Canvassing Board officially certified the recount results with Franken holding a 225-vote lead. [5] [6]

On January 6, 2009, Coleman's campaign filed an election contest and on April 13, a three-judge panel dismissed Coleman's Notice of Contest and ruled that Franken had won the election by 312 votes. [7] Coleman's appeal of the panel's decision to the Minnesota Supreme Court was unanimously rejected on June 30, [8] and he conceded the election. [9] Franken was sworn in as Minnesota's junior senator on July 7, 2009. [10]

Because Franken's margin of victory was so slim, the seat was initially thought to be a top target for Republicans, but Politico reported in a May 2013 article that Franken's high approval rating, his large war chest, and the Republicans' struggle to find a top-tier candidate meant that Franken was the "heavy favorite" in the 2014 election. [11]

Democratic–Farmer–Labor primary

Candidates

Declared

Results

Democratic primary election results [14]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic (DFL) Al Franken (incumbent) 182,720 94.5%
Democratic (DFL) Sandra Henningsgard10,6275.5%
Total votes193,347 100.0%

Republican primary

At the Republican State Convention on May 30–31, 2014, after ten ballots, Mike McFadden received the party's endorsement. Chris Dahlberg, Monti Moreno, Julianne Ortman and Phillip Parrish had all sought the endorsement but withdrew in favor of McFadden. Only Jim Abeler continued in the race and contested the August primary against McFadden. [15] [16] David Carlson did not participate in the convention after a dispute with party leadership over nominating petitions. [17] He, Patrick D. Munro and Ole Savior also appeared on the ballot.

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Mike McFadden
Julianne Ortman

Polling

Poll
source
Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jim
Abeler
David
Carlson
Chris
Dahlberg
David
Latvaaho
Mike
McFadden
Monti
Moreno
Julianne
Ortman
Phillip
Parrish
Harold
Shudlick
OtherUndecided
PPP October 27–29, 2013305±5.7%12%10%11%2%12%53%
TPC February 28–March 1, 2014400±4.9%8%4%8%1%16%0%1%52%
Suffolk April 24–28, 2014800± ?8%1%2%1%12%0%14%1%63%
SurveyUSA June 5–9, 2014404± 5%16%44%19%21%
Hypothetical polling
Republican primary
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Michele
Bachmann
Laura
Brod
Chip
Cravaack
John
Kline
Erik
Paulsen
Rich
Stanek
Other/
Undecided
Public Policy Polling January 18–20, 2013275± 5.9%45%4%13%19%11%2%6%

Results

Republican primary election results [14]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Mike McFadden (endorsed) 129,601 71.74%
Republican Jim Abeler 26,71414.79%
Republican David Carlson16,4499.10%
Republican Patrick Munro5,0582.80%
Republican Ole Savior2,8401.57%
Total votes180,662 100.00%

Independence primary

The Independence Party of Minnesota state convention was held on May 17, 2014, at Minnesota State University, Mankato. [43] Businessman Kevin Terrell won the party's endorsement, but lost the primary to Steve Carlson. Carlson did not ask for an endorsement from the Independence Party and self-identifies with the Tea party. [44] For their part, the Independence Party has disowned Carlson, who has defended Todd Akin's controversial "legitimate rape" comments and said that George Zimmerman "provided a valuable service" by killing Trayvon Martin. [45]

Candidates

Declared

  • Jack Shepard, dentist, convicted felon, fugitive and perennial candidate [46]
  • Kevin Terrell, business consultant [47]

Withdrew

Results

Independence primary election results [14]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Independence Steve Carlson 2,148 33.91%
Independence Kevin Terrell (endorsed)1,37621.72%
Independence Jack Shepard1,13017.83%
Independence Stephen Williams86213.60%
Independence Tom Books82012.94%
Total votes6,336 100.00%

Libertarian convention

The Libertarian Party of Minnesota state convention was held on April 26, 2014, in Maple Grove. [50]

Candidates

Nominee

  • Heather Johnson [51]

General election

Debates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [52] Likely DNovember 3, 2014
Sabato's Crystal Ball [53] Likely DNovember 3, 2014
Rothenberg Political Report [54] Likely DNovember 3, 2014
Real Clear Politics [55] Likely DNovember 3, 2014

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Al
Franken (DFL)
Mike
McFadden (R)
Steve
Carlson (IP)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling May 17–19, 2013712± 3.7%51%36%13%
Public Policy Polling October 27–29, 2013895± 3.3%49%38%13%
SurveyUSA/KSTP-TV February 25–27, 2014545± 4.3%50%40%11%
Suffolk University April 24–28, 2014800± ?44%29%7%20%
SurveyUSA/KSTP-TV June 5–9, 20141,017± 3.1%48%42%5% [56] 5%
Public Policy Polling June 12–15, 2014633± 3.9%49%38%13%
Gravis Marketing July 2–3, 2014879± 3%51%35%13%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov July 5–24, 20143,185± 2%53%40%2%4%
Rasmussen Reports August 13–14, 2014750± 4%50%42%2%6%
SurveyUSA/KSTP-TV August 19–21, 2014600± 4.1%51%42%2%2%3%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov August 18 – September 2, 20143,607± 2%49%41%1%9%
Mason-Dixon/Star Tribune September 8–10, 2014800± 3.5%49%36%3%1%11%
Rasmussen Reports September 29–30, 2014750± 4%49%41%3%6%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov September 20 – October 1, 20142,562± 2%49%42%0%8%
SurveyUSA/KSTP-TV September 30 – October 2, 2014577± 4.2%55%37%3%2% [57] 3%
Public Opinion Strategies Archived October 10, 2014, at the Wayback Machine October 5–7, 2014500± 4.4%46%39%15%
SurveyUSA/KSTP-TV October 14–16, 2014597± 4.1%53%38%3%3% [58] 3%
Mason-Dixon/Star Tribune October 20–22, 2014800± 3.5%48%39%3%1%9%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov October 16–23, 20142,430± 3%51%41%1%7%
SurveyUSA/KSTP-TV October 27–30, 2014596± 4.1%51%40%4%3% [58] 3%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Al
Franken (DFL)
Jim
Abeler (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling October 27–29, 2013895± 3.3%50%39%11%
SurveyUSA February 25–27, 2014545± 4.3%49%37%14%
Suffolk April 24–28, 2014800± ?45%29%8%19%
SurveyUSA June 5–9, 20141,017± 3.1%48%39%8% [59] 5%
Public Policy Polling June 12–15, 2014633± 3.9%50%39%11%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Al
Franken (DFL)
Michele
Bachmann (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling January 21–22, 20121,236± 2.8%54%39%7%
Public Policy Polling May 31 – June 3, 2012973± 3.1%57%35%8%
Public Policy Polling September 10–11, 2012824± 3.4%52%40%7%
Public Policy Polling October 5–8, 2012937± 3.2%55%37%8%
Public Policy Polling January 18–20, 20131,065± 3%54%40%7%
Public Policy Polling May 17–19, 2013712± 3.7%55%38%7%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Al
Franken (DFL)
David
Carlson (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling June 12–15, 2014633± 3.9%49%38%13%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Al
Franken (DFL)
Norm
Coleman (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling May 31 – June 3, 2012973± 3.1%51%41%8%
Public Policy Polling September 10–11, 2012824± 3.4%50%43%6%
Public Policy Polling October 5–8, 2012937± 3.2%51%41%8%
Public Policy Polling January 18–20, 20131,065± 3%50%44%7%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Al
Franken (DFL)
Chris
Dahlberg (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling October 27–29, 2013895± 3.3%49%39%12%
SurveyUSA February 25–27, 2014545± 4.3%49%41%10%
Suffolk April 24–28, 2014800± ?45%28%8%20%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Al
Franken (DFL)
John
Kline (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling January 18–20, 20131,065± 3%49%41%11%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Al
Franken (DFL)
Jason
Lewis (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling May 17–19, 2013712± 3.7%54%37%9%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Al
Franken (DFL)
Monti
Moreno (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling October 27–29, 2013895± 3.3%49%36%15%
SurveyUSA February 25–27, 2014545± 4.3%50%36%15%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Al
Franken (DFL)
Patrick
Munro (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling June 12–15, 2014633± 3.9%50%35%15%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Al
Franken (DFL)
Julianne
Ortman (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling May 17–19, 2013712± 3.7%52%35%14%
Public Policy Polling October 27–29, 2013895± 3.3%49%37%14%
SurveyUSA February 25–27, 2014545± 4.3%49%41%10%
Suffolk April 24–28, 2014800± ?44%29%7%20%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Al
Franken (DFL)
Erik
Paulsen (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling January 18–20, 20131,065± 3%50%39%11%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Al
Franken (DFL)
Tim
Pawlenty (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling January 21–22, 20121,236± 2.8%49%43%8%
Public Policy Polling May 31 – June 3, 2012973± 3.1%52%41%7%
Public Policy Polling September 10–11, 2012824± 3.4%50%43%7%
Public Policy Polling October 5–8, 2012937± 3.2%51%42%7%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Al
Franken (DFL)
Julie
Rosen (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling May 17–19, 2013712± 3.7%52%36%12%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Al
Franken (DFL)
Ole
Savior (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling June 12–15, 2014633± 3.9%50%33%17%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Al
Franken (DFL)
Harold
Shudlick (R)
OtherUndecided
SurveyUSA February 25–27, 2014545± 4.3%50%36%14%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Al
Franken (DFL)
Rich
Stanek (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling May 17–19, 2013712± 3.7%51%36%13%

Results

United States Senate election in Minnesota, 2014 [60]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic (DFL) Al Franken (incumbent) 1,053,205 53.15% +11.16%
Republican Mike McFadden 850,22742.91%+0.93%
Independence Steve Carlson47,5302.40%-12.75%
Libertarian Heather Johnson29,6851.50%+1.02%
Write-in 8810.04%-0.04%
Total votes1,981,528 100.00% N/A
Democratic (DFL) hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

See also

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References

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  39. "Julianne Ortman Endorsed By Citizens United Political Victory Fund In Minnesota's U.S. Senate Republican Primary". www.cupvf.org. Retrieved April 9, 2018.
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  56. Kevin Terrell (IP) 4%, Other 1%
  57. Heather Johnson (L) 1%, Other 1%
  58. 1 2 Heather Johnson (L) 2%, Other 1%
  59. Kevin Terrell (IP) 6%, Other 2%
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