2024 United States presidential election in Minnesota

Main article: 2024 United States presidential election

2024 United States presidential election in Minnesota

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Nominee Joe Biden (presumptive) Donald Trump (presumptive) Party Democratic (DFL) Republican Home state Delaware Florida Running mate Kamala Harris (presumptive) TBA

Incumbent President Joe Biden Democratic

The 2024 United States presidential election in Minnesota is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Minnesota voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Minnesota has 10 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat. ^[1]

Minnesota is a slightly blue state and has the longest active streak of voting for Democratic presidential nominees of any U.S. state, as it has not voted for a Republican for president since Richard Nixon won the state in his 1972 49-state landslide. Despite this, Minnesota is not usually seen as safely blue and could be targeted by both parties in 2024: no presidential Democrat since landslide winner Lyndon B. Johnson (who ran with favorite son Hubert Humphrey) in 1964 has hit 55% of the vote in the state, with the only ones even carrying the state by double digits since then being Humphrey in 1968, Jimmy Carter (who shared the ticket with favorite son Walter Mondale) in 1976, Bill Clinton in both of his 1990s nationwide victories, and fellow Midwesterner Barack Obama in 2008; in addition, the state was particularly close in 1984 (in which the state narrowly handed Mondale his only state victory), 2000, 2004 and 2016. Nonetheless, Minnesota is generally expected to lean towards the Democratic presidential nominee in 2024, ^[2] and if this holds true in November, it will be the thirteenth consecutive Democratic win.

Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden is running for reelection to a second term. ^[3]

Primary elections

Republican primary

Main article: 2024 Minnesota Republican presidential primary

The Minnesota Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

Minnesota Republican primary, March 5, 2024

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Bound	Unbound	Total
Donald Trump	232,846	69.1%	27		27
Nikki Haley	97,182	28.8%	12		12
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)	4,085	1.2%
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)	1,470	0.4%
Chris Christie (withdrawn)	1,431	0.4%
Total:	337,734	100.0%	39		39
Source: [4]

Democratic primary

Main article: 2024 Minnesota Democratic presidential primary

The Minnesota Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

Minnesota Democratic primary, March 5, 2024

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Pledged	Unpledged	Total
Joe Biden (incumbent)	171,278	70.1%	64
Uncommitted	45,914	18.8%	11
Dean Phillips	18,960	7.8%
Marianne Williamson	3,459	1.4%
Write-in votes	2,000	0.8%
Jason Palmer	758	0.3%
Cenk Uygur	692	0.3%
Armando Perez-Serrato	372	0.2%
Gabriel Cornejo	323	0.1%
Frankie Lozada	290	0.1%
Eban Cambridge	235	0.1%
Total:	242,594	100%	75	17	92
Source: [5]

Legal Marijuana Now primary

Main article: 2024 Minnesota Legal Marijuana Now presidential primary

The Minnesota Legal Marijuana Now primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

2024 Minnesota Legal Marijuana Now primary

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Delegates
Krystal Gabel (withdrew)	759	28.84%	-
Dennis Schuller	459	17.44%	7
Vermin Supreme	397	15.08%	6
Rudy Reyes	365	13.87%	5
Edward Forchion	168	6.38%	2
Willie Nelson (write-in)	19	0.72%	0
Other write-ins	465	17.67%	-
Total:	2,632	100.00%	20
Source: [6]

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Cook Political Report [7]	Likely D	December 19, 2023
Inside Elections [8]	Lean D	April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball [9]	Likely D	June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill [10]	Lean D	December 14, 2023
CNalysis [11]	Likely D	December 30, 2023
CNN [12]	Lean D	January 14, 2024

Polling

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
SurveyUSA [upper-alpha 1]	April 3–7, 2024	608 (LV)	± 4.9%	44%	42%	14% [lower-alpha 2]
SurveyUSA [upper-alpha 1]	February 23–28, 2024	1,603 (LV)	± 2.8%	42%	38%	20%
SurveyUSA [upper-alpha 1]	January 24–29, 2024	1,594 (LV)	± 2.8%	42%	39%	19%
Embold Research/MinnPost	November 14–17, 2023	1,519 (LV)	± 2.6%	45%	42%	13%
Emerson College	October 1–4, 2023	477 (LV)	± 4.4%	40%	38%	22%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)	May 6–8, 2023	500 (LV)	–	48%	40%	12%

Hypothetical polling

Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Ron DeSantis Republican	Other / Undecided
Public Opinion Strategies (R)	May 6–8, 2023	500 (LV)	–	45%	43%	12%

See also

• United States presidential elections in Minnesota
• 2024 United States presidential election
• 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
• 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
• 2024 United States elections

Notes

1. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
2. "Other" with 11%

Partisan clients

1. Poll sponsored by KSTP-TV, WDIO-TV, & KAAL-TV

References

1. Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved February 7, 2023.
2. "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved March 4, 2024.
3. Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
4. "Minnesota Republican Primary Election Results". The New York Times . Retrieved April 5, 2024.
5. "2024 PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY RESULTS". OFFICE OF THE MINNESOTA SECRETARY OF STATE STEVE SIMON. Retrieved March 28, 2024.
6. "Certification of Results of 2024 Presidential Nomination Primary". Minnesota Secretary of State . March 12, 2024.
7. "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
8. "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
9. "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
10. "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
11. "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
12. "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN . Retrieved January 14, 2024.