2024 United States presidential election in Tennessee

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2024 United States presidential election in Tennessee
Flag of Tennessee.svg
  2020 November 5, 20242028 
  Donald Trump official portrait (3x4a).jpg Kamala Harris Vice Presidential Portrait (cropped).jpg
Nominee Donald Trump Kamala Harris
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida California
Running mate JD Vance Tim Walz
Electoral vote110
Popular vote1,964,4991,055,039
Percentage64.09%34.42%

Tennessee Presidential Election Results 2024.svg
TN-24-pres-districts.svg

President before election

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

The 2024 United States presidential election in Tennessee took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Tennessee voters have chosen electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Tennessee has 11 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat. [1]

Contents

A Southern state in the heart of the Bible Belt, no Democrat has won Tennessee's electoral votes since Bill Clinton of neighboring Arkansas, who shared the ticket with favorite son Al Gore, in 1996, nor has it been contested at the presidential level since 2000, when Gore narrowly lost his home state by less than 4 points.

Incumbent Democratic President Joe Biden initially ran for re-election and became the party's presumptive nominee. [2] However, following what was widely viewed as a poor performance in the June 2024 presidential debate and amid increasing age and health concerns from within his party, he withdrew from the race on July 21 and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, who launched her presidential campaign the same day. [3] Biden's withdrawal from the race makes him the first eligible president not to stand for re-election since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1968.

Former President and Republican nominee Donald Trump ran for re-election to a second non-consecutive term after losing in 2020. [4] Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. gathered the required signatures to be on the ballot. [5] Despite that, he dropped out of the race and endorsed Trump.

Tennessee voted for Trump by a wide margin in the election, with him winning the state by 29.7%. [6] Trump received more than 1.96 million votes which was a record for votes cast for any candidate in the history of Tennessee. This is the best performance from a Republican candidate in the state since 1972.

Trump was able to increase his support in the Nashville metropolitan area, particularly in the suburban counties of Williamson, Rutherford, Wilson, Sumner, and Cheatham, performing similarly to his 2016 results. He gained ground in every county and even recaptured some support in Shelby and Davidson counties, home to Memphis and Nashville, as well as in Hamilton County (Chattanooga) and Knox County (Knoxville). Trump came close to flipping majority-Black Haywood County, losing it by just 25 votes. Notably, Haywood County voted Republican in the Senate congressional race on the same ballot. This was the closest the county has come to voting Republican in a presidential race since 1988.

Primary elections

Democratic primary

The Tennessee Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. President Biden won the state in a landslide, earning all 63 pledged delegates

Popular vote share by county
Biden
80-90%
>90% 2024 Tennessee Democratic Presidential Primary.svg
Popular vote share by county
  Biden
  •   80–90%
      >90%
Tennessee Democratic primary, March 5, 2024 [7] [8]
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
PledgedUnpledgedTotal
Joe Biden (incumbent)122,80392.14%6363
Uncommitted 10,4757.86%00
Total:133,278100.00%63770

Republican primary

The Tennessee Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Former president Donald J. Trump was challenged by Nikki Haley, the only other major candidate remaining in the Republican primaries. Trump won the state in a landslide, defeating Haley by 57.8 points and earning all 58 delegates.

Popular vote share by county
Trump
60-70%
70-80%
80-90%
>90% 2024 Tennessee Republican Presidential Primary election by county.svg
Popular vote share by county
  Trump
  •   60–70%
      70–80%
      80–90%
      >90%
Tennessee Republican primary, March 5, 2024 [9] [10]
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
BoundUnboundTotal
Donald Trump 446,85077.33%58058
Nikki Haley 112,95819.55%000
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)7,9471.38%000
Uncommitted 4,8840.85%000
Chris Christie (withdrawn)1,8740.32%000
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)1,7140.30%000
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn)7220.13%000
Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn)5330.09%000
David Stuckenberg3520.06%000
Total:577,834100.00%58058

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Cook Political Report [11] Solid RDecember 19, 2023
Inside Elections [12] Solid RApril 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball [13] Safe RJune 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill [14] Safe RDecember 14, 2023
CNalysis [15] Solid RDecember 30, 2023
CNN [16] Solid RJanuary 14, 2024
The Economist [17] Safe RJune 12, 2024
538 [6] Solid RJune 11, 2024
RCP [18] Solid RJune 26, 2024
NBC News [19] Safe ROctober 6, 2024

Polling

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Kamala
Harris
Democratic
Other /
Undecided
ActiVote [20] October 5−28, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%62%38%
ActiVote [21] September 24 – October 16, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%62%38%
ActiVote [22] July 26 – August 29, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%63%37%

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Kamala
Harris
Democratic
Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Cornel
West
Independent
Jill
Stein
Green
Chase
Oliver
Libertarian
Other /
Undecided
Targoz Market Research [23] [A] September 27 – October 8, 20241,200 (RV)± 2.8%54%35%5%1%1%4%
971 (LV)56%35%5%0%1%3%
Hypothetical polling with Donald Trump and Joe Biden

Donald J. Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies [24] [B] April 13–21, 2024510 (LV)59%35%6%
Targoz Market Research [25] [A] March 15 – April 2, 20241,139 (RV)± 2.8%60%31%9%
974 (LV)55%31%14%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University [26] February 29 – March 3, 2024216 (RV)58%34%8% [b]
201 (LV)59%34%7% [b]
Targoz Market Research [27] [A] December 14–28, 20231,139 (RV)± 2.7%61%30%9%
929 (LV)63%31%5%
Siena College [28] [C] November 5–10, 2023805 (A)± 3.8%49%20%31%
Targoz Market Research [29] [A] October 5–16, 20231,075 (RV)± 2.8%59%29%12%
835 (LV)61%30%9%
Emerson College [30] October 1–4, 2023410 (RV)± 4.8%55%22%23%
Targoz Market Research [31] [A] June 14–22, 20231,120 (RV)± 2.9%51%32%17%
1,046 (LV)54%34%11%
SSRS/Vanderbilt University [32] April 19–23, 2023502 (RV)42%26%31%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Other /
Undecided
Targoz Market Research [33] [A] June 20 – July 1, 20241,152 (RV)± 2.8%55%28%7%10%
962 (LV)58%28%5%9%
SSRS/Vanderbilt University [34] April 26 – May 9, 20241,003 (RV)± 3.4%47%29%8%16% [c]
Targoz Market Research [25] [A] March 15 – April 2, 20241,139 (RV)± 2.8%48%25%16%11%
974 (LV)47%28%15%10%
Targoz Market Research [27] [A] December 14–28, 20231,187 (RV)± 2.7%48%23%17%12%
929 (LV)51%25%16%8%
SSRS/Vanderbilt University [35] November 14 – December 2, 20231,005 (RV)± 3.4%45%26%12%17%
Targoz Market Research [29] [A] October 5–16, 20231,164 (RV)± 2.8%46%18%22%14%
872 (LV)48%23%19%10%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Joe Manchin as an Independent

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Joe
Manchin
Independent
Other /
Undecided
Targoz Market Research [29] [A] October 5–16, 20231,118 (RV)± 2.8%52%21%5%22%
844 (LV)53%23%6%18%
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies [24] [B] April 13–21, 2024510 (LV)52%35%13%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies [24] [B] April 13–21, 2024510 (LV)55%31%14%

Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Ron
DeSantis
Republican
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Other /
Undecided
Targoz Market Research [31] [A] June 14–22, 20231,120 (RV)± 2.9%46%32%22%
977 (LV)52%36%11%
SSRS/Vanderbilt University [32] April 19–23, 2023502 (RV)33%24%40%

Results

2024 United States presidential election in Tennessee [36]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican 1,964,499 64.09% +3.43%
Democratic 1,055,03934.42%−3.03%
Independent
21,5110.70%N/A
Green 8,9530.29%+0.14%
Independent
  • Jay Bowman
  • De Bowman
5,8550.19%N/A
Socialism and Liberation 3,4510.11%+0.03%
Socialist Workers
9850.03%−0.05%
Write-in 4,6920.15%
Total votes3,064,985 100.00%
2024 Knoxville Ballot Knoxville Tennessee 2024 Presidential Ballot.jpg
2024 Knoxville Ballot

Analysis

In Tennessee, Donald Trump achieved a decisive victory, winning by a margin of 909,460 votes, making it his third-largest state win in terms of vote count, following Texas and Florida. This election marks the third consecutive cycle in which a presidential candidate secured over 60% of the Tennessee votes. Notably, Trump improved his margins in every county and gained significant support across all demographics, performing better in suburban, rural, and urban areas. [37]

County shift map from 2020 2024 Tennessee election shift map.jpg
County shift map from 2020

See also

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. 1 2 "Another candidate" with 4%
  3. "Some other candidate" with 8%
  4. 1 2 3 Listed on the ballot without party affiliation.
  5. Replacement for Butch Ware, Stein's vice presidential nominee.

Partisan clients

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Poll sponsored by the Beacon Center of Tennessee
  2. 1 2 3 Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
  3. Poll sponsored by The Tennessean

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