2024 United States presidential election in Tennessee

Last updated April 20, 2024

The 2024 United States presidential election in Tennessee is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Tennessee voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Tennessee has 11 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.^[1]

A Southern state covered entirely in the Bible Belt, no Democrat has won Tennessee's electoral votes since Bill Clinton of neighboring Arkansas, who shared the ticket with favorite son Al Gore, in 1996, nor has it been contested at the presidential level since 2000, when Gore narrowly lost his home state by less than 4 points. Tennessee is expected to go safely for the GOP candidate in 2024.^[2]

Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden is running for reelection to a second term.^[3]

Primary elections

Democratic primary

The Tennessee Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. President Biden won the state in a landslide, earning all 63 pledged delegates

Tennessee Democratic primary, March 5, 2024
Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Pledged	Unpledged	Total
Joe Biden (incumbent)	122,803	92.14%	63		63
Uncommitted	10,475	7.86%
Total:	133,278	100.00%	63	7	70
Source: ^[4]^[5]^[6]

Republican primary

The Tennessee Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Former president Donald Trump was challenged by Nikki Haley, the only other major candidate remaining in the Republican primaries. Trump won the state in a landslide, defeating Haley by 57.8 points and earning all 58 delegates.

Tennessee Republican primary, March 5, 2024
Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Bound	Unbound	Total
Donald Trump	446,850	77.33%	58		58
Nikki Haley	112,958	19.55%
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)	7,947	1.38%
Uncommitted	4,884	0.85%
Chris Christie (withdrawn)	1,874	0.32%
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)	1,714	0.30%
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn)	722	0.13%
Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn)	533	0.09%
David Stuckenberg	352	0.06%
Total:	577,834	100.0%	58		58
Source: ^[7]^[8]^[9]

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Cook Political Report ^[10]	Solid R	December 19, 2023
Inside Elections ^[11]	Solid R	April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball ^[12]	Solid R	June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill ^[13]	Solid R	December 14, 2023
CNalysis ^[14]	Solid R	December 30, 2023
CNN ^[15]	Solid R	January 14, 2024

Polling

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^{[lower-alpha 1]}	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Other / Undecided
Targoz Market Research ^{[upper-alpha 1]}	March 15 – April 2, 2024	974 (LV)	± 2.8%	55%	31%	14%
Targoz Market Research ^{[upper-alpha 1]}	December 14–28, 2023	929 (LV)	± 2.7%	63%	31%	5%
Siena College ^{[lower-alpha 2]}	November 5–10, 2023	805 (A)	–	49%	20%	31%
Targoz Market Research ^{[upper-alpha 1]}	October 5–16, 2023	872 (LV)	± 2.8%	61%	30%	9%
Emerson College	October 1–4, 2023	410 (RV)	± 4.8%	55%	22%	23%
Targoz Market Research ^{[upper-alpha 1]}	June 14–22, 2023	1,046 (V)	± 2.9%	54%	34%	11%
SSRS/Vanderbilt University	April 19–23, 2023	502 (RV)	–	42%	26%	31%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^{[lower-alpha 1]}	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Other / Undecided
Targoz Market Research ^{[upper-alpha 1]}	March 15 – April 2, 2024	974 (LV)	± 2.7%	47%	28%	15%	10%
Targoz Market Research ^{[upper-alpha 1]}	December 14–28, 2023	933 (LV)	± 2.7%	51%	25%	16%	8%
SSRS/Vanderbilt University	November 14 – December 2, 2023	1,005 (RV)	± 3.4%	45%	26%	12%	17%
Targoz Market Research ^{[upper-alpha 1]}	October 5–16, 2023	872 (LV)	± 2.8%	48%	23%	19%	10%

Hypothetical polling

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Joe Manchin as an Independent

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^{[lower-alpha 1]}	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Joe Manchin Independent	Other / Undecided
Targoz Market Research ^{[upper-alpha 1]}	October 5–16, 2023	844 (LV)	± 2.8%	53%	23%	6%	18%

Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size^{[lower-alpha 1]}	Margin of error	Ron DeSantis Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Other / Undecided
Targoz Market Research ^{[upper-alpha 1]}	June 14–22, 2023	977 (V)	± 2.9%	52%	36%	11%
SSRS/Vanderbilt University	April 19–23, 2023	502 (RV)	–	33%	24%	40%

Notes

1 2 3 4 Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear
↑ Poll sponsored by The Tennessean

Partisan clients

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Poll sponsored by the Beacon Center of Tennessee

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References

↑ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved February 7, 2023.
↑ "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved February 8, 2024.
↑ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
↑ "March 5, 2024 Democratic Presidential Preference Primary" (PDF). Tennessee Secretary of State. Retrieved March 28, 2024.
↑ "Tennessee Democratic Primary Election Results". The New York Times . Retrieved March 5, 2024.
↑ "Tennessee Democratic Delegation 2024". www.thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved May 5, 2023.
↑ "March 5, 2024 Republican Presidential Preference Primary" (PDF). Tennessee Secretary of State. Retrieved March 28, 2024.
↑ "Tennessee Republican Primary Election Results". The New York Times . Retrieved March 5, 2024.
↑ "Tennessee Republican Presidential Nominating Process". thegreenpapers.com. March 5, 2023. Retrieved February 9, 2023.
↑ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
↑ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
↑ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
↑ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
↑ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
↑ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN . Retrieved January 14, 2024.

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[key-16] 1 2 3 4 Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear

[18] Poll sponsored by The Tennessean

[BCT-17] 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Poll sponsored by the Beacon Center of Tennessee

[1] Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved February 7, 2023.

[2] "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved February 8, 2024.

[3] Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.

[4] "March 5, 2024 Democratic Presidential Preference Primary" (PDF). Tennessee Secretary of State. Retrieved March 28, 2024.

[5] "Tennessee Democratic Primary Election Results". The New York Times . Retrieved March 5, 2024.

[6] "Tennessee Democratic Delegation 2024". www.thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved May 5, 2023.

[7] "March 5, 2024 Republican Presidential Preference Primary" (PDF). Tennessee Secretary of State. Retrieved March 28, 2024.

[8] "Tennessee Republican Primary Election Results". The New York Times . Retrieved March 5, 2024.

[9] "Tennessee Republican Presidential Nominating Process". thegreenpapers.com. March 5, 2023. Retrieved February 9, 2023.

[10] "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.

[11] "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.

[12] "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.

[13] "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.

[14] "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.

[15] "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN . Retrieved January 14, 2024.

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