2024 United States presidential election in Tennessee

Main article: 2024 United States presidential election

2024 United States presidential election in Tennessee

←  2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →
Turnout	Unreleased [1]
Nominee Donald Trump Kamala Harris Party Republican Democratic Home state Florida California Running mate JD Vance Tim Walz Electoral vote 11 0 Popular vote 1,966,865 1,056,265 Percentage 64.19% 34.47%
County results Congressional district results State Senate district results State House district results Trump   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90% Harris   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90%
President before election Joe Biden Democratic Elected President Donald Trump Republican

The 2024 United States presidential election in Tennessee took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Tennessee voters have chosen electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Tennessee has 11 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat. ^[2]

For the third time in a row, Tennessee voted for Republican Donald Trump by a wide margin in the election, with him winning the state by 29.7%, a considerable increase from his 23.2% victory in 2020 and to a lesser extent his 26% victory in 2016. ^[3] He received more than 1.96 million Tennessee votes which was a record for votes cast for any candidate in state history. ^[4] This is the best performance from a Republican candidate in Tennessee since Richard Nixon's 37.9% victory 1972.

Prior to the election, all major news organizations once again considered Tennessee a safe red state; the state has voted Republican in every presidential election since 2000, including by double-digit margins since 2004.

Background

Incumbent Democratic President Joe Biden initially ran for re-election and became the party's presumptive nominee. ^[5] However, following what was widely viewed as a poor performance in the June 2024 presidential debate and amid increasing age and health concerns from within his party, he withdrew from the race on July 21 and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, who launched her presidential campaign the same day. ^[6] Biden's withdrawal from the race makes him the first eligible president not to stand for re-election since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1968.

Former President and Republican nominee Donald Trump ran for re-election to a second non-consecutive term after losing in 2020. ^[7] Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. gathered the required signatures to be on the ballot. ^[8] Despite that, he dropped out of the race and endorsed Trump.

Primary elections

Democratic primary

Main article: 2024 Tennessee Democratic presidential primary

The Tennessee Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. President Biden won the state in a landslide, earning all 63 pledged delegates

Popular vote share by county

  Biden

•   80–90%
    >90%

Tennessee Democratic primary, March 5, 2024 ^{[9] [10]}

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Pledged	Unpledged	Total
Joe Biden (incumbent)	122,803	92.14%	63		63
Uncommitted	10,475	7.86%	0		0
Total:	133,278	100.00%	63	7	70

Republican primary

Main article: 2024 Tennessee Republican presidential primary

The Tennessee Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Former president Donald J. Trump was challenged by Nikki Haley, the only other major candidate remaining in the Republican primaries. Trump won the state in a landslide, defeating Haley by 57.8 points and earning all 58 delegates.

Popular vote share by county

  Trump

•   60–70%
    70–80%
    80–90%
    >90%

Tennessee Republican primary, March 5, 2024 ^{[11] [12]}

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Bound	Unbound	Total
Donald Trump	446,850	77.33%	58	0	58
Nikki Haley	112,958	19.55%	0	0	0
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)	7,947	1.38%	0	0	0
Uncommitted	4,884	0.85%	0	0	0
Chris Christie (withdrawn)	1,874	0.32%	0	0	0
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)	1,714	0.30%	0	0	0
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn)	722	0.13%	0	0	0
Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn)	533	0.09%	0	0	0
David Stuckenberg	352	0.06%	0	0	0
Total:	577,834	100.00%	58	0	58

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Cook Political Report [13]	Solid R	December 19, 2023
Inside Elections [14]	Solid R	April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball [15]	Safe R	June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill [16]	Safe R	December 14, 2023
CNalysis [17]	Solid R	December 30, 2023
CNN [18]	Solid R	January 14, 2024
The Economist [19]	Safe R	June 12, 2024
538 [3]	Solid R	June 11, 2024
RCP [20]	Solid R	June 26, 2024
NBC News [21]	Safe R	October 6, 2024

Polling

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [a]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Kamala Harris Democratic	Other / Undecided
ActiVote [22]	October 5−28, 2024	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	62%	38%	–
ActiVote [23]	September 24 – October 16, 2024	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	62%	38%	–
ActiVote [24]	July 26 – August 29, 2024	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	63%	37%	–

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [a]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Kamala Harris Democratic	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Cornel West Independent	Jill Stein Green	Chase Oliver Libertarian	Other / Undecided
Targoz Market Research [25] [A]	September 27 – October 8, 2024	1,200 (RV)	± 2.8%	54%	35%	5%	–	1%	1%	4%
		971 (LV)		56%	35%	5%	–	0%	1%	3%

Hypothetical polling with Donald Trump and Joe Biden

Donald J. Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [a]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Other / Undecided
John Zogby Strategies [26] [B]	April 13–21, 2024	510 (LV)	–	59%	35%	6%
Targoz Market Research [27] [A]	March 15 – April 2, 2024	1,139 (RV)	± 2.8%	60%	31%	9%
		974 (LV)		55%	31%	14%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University [28]	February 29 – March 3, 2024	216 (RV)	–	58%	34%	8% [b]
		201 (LV)		59%	34%	7% [b]
Targoz Market Research [29] [A]	December 14–28, 2023	1,139 (RV)	± 2.7%	61%	30%	9%
		929 (LV)		63%	31%	5%
Siena College [30] [C]	November 5–10, 2023	805 (A)	± 3.8%	49%	20%	31%
Targoz Market Research [31] [A]	October 5–16, 2023	1,075 (RV)	± 2.8%	59%	29%	12%
		835 (LV)		61%	30%	9%
Emerson College [32]	October 1–4, 2023	410 (RV)	± 4.8%	55%	22%	23%
Targoz Market Research [33] [A]	June 14–22, 2023	1,120 (RV)	± 2.9%	51%	32%	17%
		1,046 (LV)		54%	34%	11%
SSRS/Vanderbilt University [34]	April 19–23, 2023	502 (RV)	–	42%	26%	31%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [a]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Other / Undecided
Targoz Market Research [35] [A]	June 20 – July 1, 2024	1,152 (RV)	± 2.8%	55%	28%	7%	10%
		962 (LV)		58%	28%	5%	9%
SSRS/Vanderbilt University [36]	April 26 – May 9, 2024	1,003 (RV)	± 3.4%	47%	29%	8%	16% [c]
Targoz Market Research [27] [A]	March 15 – April 2, 2024	1,139 (RV)	± 2.8%	48%	25%	16%	11%
		974 (LV)		47%	28%	15%	10%
Targoz Market Research [29] [A]	December 14–28, 2023	1,187 (RV)	± 2.7%	48%	23%	17%	12%
		929 (LV)		51%	25%	16%	8%
SSRS/Vanderbilt University [37]	November 14 – December 2, 2023	1,005 (RV)	± 3.4%	45%	26%	12%	17%
Targoz Market Research [31] [A]	October 5–16, 2023	1,164 (RV)	± 2.8%	46%	18%	22%	14%
		872 (LV)		48%	23%	19%	10%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Joe Manchin as an Independent

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [a]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Joe Manchin Independent	Other / Undecided
Targoz Market Research [31] [A]	October 5–16, 2023	1,118 (RV)	± 2.8%	52%	21%	5%	22%
		844 (LV)		53%	23%	6%	18%

Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [a]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent	Other / Undecided
John Zogby Strategies [26] [B]	April 13–21, 2024	510 (LV)	–	52%	35%	13%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [a]	Margin of error	Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent	Joe Biden Democratic	Other / Undecided
John Zogby Strategies [26] [B]	April 13–21, 2024	510 (LV)	–	55%	31%	14%

Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [a]	Margin of error	Ron DeSantis Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Other / Undecided
Targoz Market Research [33] [A]	June 14–22, 2023	1,120 (RV)	± 2.9%	46%	32%	22%
		977 (LV)		52%	36%	11%
SSRS/Vanderbilt University [34]	April 19–23, 2023	502 (RV)	–	33%	24%	40%

Results

2024 United States presidential election in Tennessee ^[38]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Donald Trump JD Vance	1,966,865	64.19%	+3.53%
	Democratic	Kamala Harris Tim Walz	1,056,265	34.47%	−2.98%
	Independent	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (withdrawn) Nicole Shanahan (withdrawn)	21,535	0.70%	N/A
	Green	Jill Stein [d] Samson Kpadenou [e]	8,967	0.29%	+0.14%
	Independent	Jay Bowman De Bowman	5,865	0.19%	N/A
	Socialism and Liberation	Claudia De la Cruz [d] Karina Garcia	3,457	0.11%	+0.03%
	Socialist Workers	Rachele Fruit [d] Dennis Richter	988	0.03%	−0.05%
Total votes			3,063,942	100.00%
	Republican hold

By county

County [39]	Donald Trump Republican		Kamala Harris Democratic		Various candidates Other parties		Margin		Total
	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%
Anderson
Bedford
Benton
Bledsoe
Blount
Bradley
Campbell
Cannon
Carroll
Carter
Cheatham	14,987	72.26%	5,464	26.34%	290	1.40%	9,523	45.92%	20,741
Chester
Claiborne
Clay
Cocke
Coffee
Crockett
Cumberland
Davidson	102,256	35.26%	181,862	62.70%	5,918	2.04%	−79,606	−27.44%	290,036
Decatur
DeKalb
Dickson	19,002	75.39%	5,913	23.46%	289	1.15%	13,089	51.93%	25,204
Dyer
Fayette
Fentress
Franklin
Gibson	16,346	75.51%	5,100	23.56%	202	0.93%	11,246	51.95%	21,648
Giles
Grainger
Greene
Grundy
Hamblen
Hamilton	97,195	55.72%	74,437	42.67%	2,806	1.61%	22,758	13.05%	174,438
Hancock
Hardeman	5,793	61.63%	3,527	37.53%	79	0.84%	2,266	24.10%	9,399
Hardin
Hawkins
Haywood	3,286	49.40%	3,311	49.77%	55	0.83%	−25	−0.37%	6,652
Henderson
Henry	11,269	77.14%	3,286	21.80%	161	1.07%	7,983	55.34%	14,716
Hickman
Houston
Humphreys
Jackson
Jefferson
Johnson
Knox	130,815	58.96%	87,516	39.45%	3,533	1.59%	43,299	19.51%	221,864
Lake
Lauderdale
Lawrence
Lewis
Lincoln
Loudon
Macon
Madison	23,385	58.52%	16,115	40.32%	464	1.16%	7,270	18.20%	39,964
Marion
Marshall
Maury
McMinn
McNairy
Meigs
Monroe
Montgomery	47,795	58.46%	32,736	40.04%	1,224	1.50%	15,059	18.42%	81,755
Moore
Morgan
Obion
Overton
Perry
Pickett
Polk
Putnam
Rhea
Roane
Robertson
Rutherford	88,811	60.15%	56,656	38.37%	2,189	1.48%	32,155	21.78%	147,656
Scott
Sequatchie
Sevier
Shelby	118,917	36.42%	201,759	61.80%	5,821	1.78%	−82,842	−25.38%	326,497
Smith
Stewart
Sullivan
Sumner
Tipton
Trousdale
Unicoi
Union
Van Buren
Warren
Washington
Wayne
Weakley
White
Williamson	94,562	65.36%	47,695	32.97%	2,411	1.67%	46,867	32.39%	144,668
Wilson	56,425	69.44%	23,855	29.36%	974	1.20%	32,570	40.08%	81,254
Totals	1,966,865	64.19%	1,056,265	34.47%	40,812	1.34%	910,600	29.72%	3,063,942

Swing by county

Legend

•   Republican — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +2.5-5%
•   Republican — +5-7.5%
•   Republican — +7.5-10%
•   Republican — +10-12.5%

By congressional district

Trump won 8 of 9 congressional districts. ^{[40] [ user-generated source ]}

District	Trump	Harris	Representative
1st	78.41%	20.57%	Diana Harshbarger
2nd	66.24%	32.38%	Tim Burchett
3rd	67.28%	31.41%	Chuck Fleischmann
4th	71.19%	27.61%	Scott DesJarlais
5th	58.20%	40.21%	Andy Ogles
6th	66.81%	31.94%	John W. Rose
7th	60.41%	38.13%	Mark E. Green
8th	69.99%	28.88%	David Kustoff
9th	27.38%	70.84%	Steve Cohen

By Grand Division

Results by Grand Division
Trump:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%

Trump won all three of Tennessee's Grand Divisions—West, Middle, and East Tennessee. Middle and East Tennessee are solidly Republican, while West Tennessee, owing to its high Black population, was formerly loyal to the Democrats. It has become competitive for Republicans in recent elections. In 2020, Trump had won it with 49.43% to Biden's 49.06%. Democrats had previously won West Tennessee in 2004, 2008, and 2012. ^{[41] [42]}

Grand Division	Trump	Harris
West	52.7%	45.9%
Middle	63.1%	35.5%
East	70.9%	27.8%

Analysis

A fast-growing Southern state in the heart of the Bible Belt, no Democrat has won Tennessee's electoral votes since Bill Clinton of neighboring Arkansas, who shared the ticket with favorite son Al Gore, in 1996, nor has it been contested at the presidential level since 2000, when Gore narrowly lost his home state by less than 4 points. The last Democratic presidential candidate to win at least 40% of the state vote was Barack Obama in 2008, and Republicans have occupied all statewide offices in Tennessee since 2011.

Tennessee handed Republican Donald Trump a decisive victory, doing so by a margin of 910,600 votes, making it his third-largest state win in terms of vote count, following Texas and Florida, which are also in the South. This election marks the third consecutive cycle in which a presidential candidate secured over 60% of the Tennesseean vote. Notably, Trump improved his margins in every county and gained significant support across all demographics, performing better in suburban, rural, and urban areas. ^[43]

Trump was able to increase his support in the Nashville metropolitan area, particularly in the suburban counties of Williamson, Rutherford, Wilson, Sumner, and Cheatham, performing similarly to his 2016 results. He gained ground in every county and even recaptured some support in the Democratic strongholds of Shelby and Davidson Counties, respectively home to Memphis and Nashville, as well as in moderately-red Hamilton County (Chattanooga) and safely-red Knox County (Knoxville).

Trump also came close to flipping majority-Black Haywood County, losing it by just 25 votes. Notably, Haywood County voted Republican in the Senate and congressional race on the same ballot. This was the closest the county has come to voting Republican in a presidential race since 1972.

See also

• United States presidential elections in Tennessee
• 2024 United States presidential election
• 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
• 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
• 2024 United States Senate election in Tennessee
• 2024 Tennessee elections
• 2024 United States elections

Notes

1. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
2. "Another candidate" with 4%
3. "Some other candidate" with 8%
4. Listed on the ballot without party affiliation.
5. Replacement for Butch Ware, Stein's vice presidential nominee.

Partisan clients

1. Poll sponsored by the Beacon Center of Tennessee
2. Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
3. Poll sponsored by The Tennessean

References

1. "Tennessee Voter Turnout in 2024". Tennessee Secretary of State. November 5, 2024. Retrieved December 6, 2024.
2. Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved February 7, 2023.
3. Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
4. "Secretary of State's Division of Elections Announces Record Turnout, Certification of Nov. 5 Results | Tennessee Secretary of State". sos.tn.gov. Retrieved December 13, 2024.
5. Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC. Archived from the original on April 25, 2023. Retrieved April 25, 2023.
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7. Orr, Gabby (November 16, 2022). "Former President Donald Trump announces a White House bid for 2024". CNN.com. Retrieved October 8, 2023.
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26. "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
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29. "Beacon Poll of Tennessee Dec. 14 to 28, 2023" (PDF). Beacon Center of Tennessee. January 3, 2024.
30. Jones, Vivian (December 17, 2023). "Tennesseans back Trump but a nearly third of GOP says party on the wrong track, poll shows". The Tennessean. Archived from the original on September 28, 2024.
31. "Beacon Poll of Tennessee Oct. 5 to 16, 2023" (PDF). Beacon Center of Tennessee. October 22, 2023.
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39. State of Tennessee General Election Results, November 5, 2024, Results By County (PDF) (Report). Secretary of State of Tennessee. December 2, 2024. Retrieved December 2, 2024.
40. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZHx5E0-5vuXxcZShBgsAl_vwAntkkanGqYQp0owNjoQ/edit?gid=0#gid=0
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