2024 United States presidential election in Nevada

Main article: 2024 United States presidential election

2024 United States presidential election in Nevada

←  2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →

Nominee Joe Biden (presumptive) Donald Trump (presumptive) Party Democratic Republican Home state Delaware Florida Running mate Kamala Harris (presumptive) TBA

Incumbent President Joe Biden Democratic

The 2024 United States presidential election in Nevada is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Nevada voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Nevada has six electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat. ^[1] Nevada is considered to be a crucial swing state in 2024, although no Republican presidential nominee has won Nevada since George W. Bush's narrow victory twenty years earlier (although, except in 2008, the wins were always narrow for Democrats).

Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden is running for reelection to a second term. ^[2] Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has gathered enough signatures to appear on the ballot, as he announced in March. ^[3]

Primary elections

Democratic primary

Main article: 2024 Nevada Democratic presidential primary

The Nevada Democratic primary was held on February 6, 2024.

Nevada Democratic primary, February 6, 2024

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Pledged	Unpledged	Total
Joe Biden (incumbent)	119,758	89.3%	36		36
None of These Candidates	7,448	5.6%
Marianne Williamson	4,101	3.1%
Gabriel Cornejo	811	0.6%
Jason Palmer	530	0.4%
Frankie Lozada	315	0.2%
Armando Perez-Serrato	264	0.2%
John Haywood	241	0.2%
Stephen Lyons	147	0.1%
Superpayaseria Crystalroc	133	0.1%
Donald Picard	124	0.1%
Brent Foutz	93	0.1%
Stephen Alan Leon	89	0.1%
Mark R. Prascak	33	<0.1%
Total:	134,087	100%	36	13	49
Source: [4]

Republican nominating contests

Main article: 2024 Nevada Republican presidential nominating contests

Although the Nevada state government established a primary system in 2021, the state Republican Party chose to boycott the primary, scheduled for February 6, in favor of a party-organized caucus, scheduled for February 8. Votes from the primary will not be included in determining delegate allocation.

Nevada Republican primary, February 6, 2024

Candidate	Votes	Percentage
			None of These Candidates [5]	50,763	63.3%
Nikki Haley	24,583	30.6%
Mike Pence (withdrawn)	3,091	3.9%
Tim Scott (withdrawn)	1,081	1.4%
John Anthony Castro	270	0.3%
Hirsh V. Singh (withdrawn)	200	0.3%
Donald Kjornes	166	0.2%
Heath V. Fulkerson	95	0.1%
Total:	80,249	100.00%
Source: [6]

Nevada Republican caucus, February 8, 2024

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Bound	Unbound	Total
Donald Trump	59,982	99.1%	25	1 [lower-alpha 1]	26
Ryan Binkley	540	0.9%	0	0	0
Total	60,522	100.0%	25	1	26
Source: "2024 Presidential Caucus". Nevada Republican Party . Retrieved January 17, 2024.

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Cook Political Report [7]	Tossup	December 19, 2023
Inside Elections [8]	Tilt D	April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball [9]	Tossup	June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill [10]	Tossup	December 14, 2023
CNalysis [11]	Tossup	December 30, 2023
CNN [12]	Lean R (flip)	January 14, 2024

Polling

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
Wall Street Journal	March 17–24, 2024	600 (RV)	± 4.0%	44%	48%	8%
Echelon Insights [upper-alpha 1]	March 12–19, 2024	400 (LV)	± 5.8%	44%	51%	5%
Emerson College	March 12–15, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	49%	51%	–
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	March 8–15, 2024	447 (RV)	± 5.0%	44%	46%	10%
Noble Predictive Insights	February 27 – March 5, 2024	829 (RV)	± 3.4%	40%	45%	15%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	February 12–20, 2024	445 (RV)	± 5.0%	42%	48%	10%
Emerson College	February 16–19, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	40%	46%	14%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	January 16–21, 2024	457 (RV)	± 5.0%	40%	48%	12%
Emerson College	January 5–8, 2024	1,294 (RV)	± 2.6%	45%	47%	8%
Change Research/Future Majority (D)	December 3–7, 2023	(RVs)	–	40%	44%	14%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	November 27 – December 6, 2023	451 (RV)	± 5.0%	44%	47%	9%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	October 30 – November 7, 2023	437 (RV)	± 5.0%	43%	46%	11%
Emerson College	October 30 – November 4, 2023	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	39%	46%	14%
New York Times/Siena College	October 22 – November 3, 2023	611 (RV)	± 4.4%	41%	52%	7%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	October 5–10, 2023	503 (RV)	± 4.0%	46%	43%	11%
CNN	September 29 – October 3, 2023	1,251 (RV)	± 4.6%	46%	45%	9%
Vote TXT	May 15–19, 2023	412 (RV)	–	41%	48%	11%
Noble Predictive Insights	April 18–26, 2023	613 (RV)	± 4.0%	48%	40%	12%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)	April 17–20, 2023	500 (RV)	± 4.4%	46%	45%	9%
OH Predictive Insights	January 30 – February 6, 2023	800 (RV)	± 3.5%	40%	42%	18%
Rasmussen Reports (R)	November 8–9, 2022	679 (LV)	± 4.0%	41%	45%	14%
Susquehanna Polling & Research	October 24–27, 2022	500 (LV)	± 4.3%	47%	48%	5%
Rasmussen Reports (R) [upper-alpha 2]	October 13–17, 2022	707 (LV)	± 4.0%	37%	49%	14%
Emerson College	September 8–10, 2022	1,000 (LV)	± 3.0%	40%	43%	17%
Emerson College	July 7–10, 2022	2,000 (RV)	± 2.1%	40%	43%	17%
Blueprint Polling (D)	March 21–24, 2022	671 (LV)	± 3.8%	34%	44%	22%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Cornel West Independent	Jill Stein Green	Other / Undecided
Wall Street Journal	March 17–24, 2024	600 (RV)	± 4.0%	33%	37%	15%	2%	2%	11% [lower-alpha 3]
Emerson College	March 12–15, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	36%	41%	9%	1%	2%	11%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	March 8–15, 2024	447 (RV)	± 5.0%	36%	42%	11%	1%	1%	11%
Noble Predictive Insights	February 27 – March 5, 2024	829 (RV)	± 3.4%	33%	40%	11%	4%	2%	10%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	February 12–20, 2024	445 (RV)	± 5.0%	37%	44%	9%	1%	0%	9%
Emerson College	February 16–19, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	34%	44%	6%	1%	1%	14%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	January 16–21, 2024	457 (RV)	± 5.0%	31%	43%	12%	1%	2%	11%
Emerson College	January 5–8, 2024	1,294 (RV)	± 2.6%	39%	42%	5%	1%	1%	12%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	November 27 – December 6, 2023	451 (RV)	± 5.0%	37%	42%	11%	2%	1%	7%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Other / Undecided
New York Times/Siena College	October 22 – November 3, 2023	611 (LV)	±4.4	31%	38%	23%	8%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Cornel West Independent	Other / Undecided
Bloomberg/Morning Consult	October 30 – November 7, 2023	437 (RV)	± 5.0%	35%	39%	11%	1%	14%

Hypothetical polling

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Kamala Harris Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
Emerson College	February 16–19, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	39%	48%	13%
New York Times/Siena College	October 22 – November 3, 2023	611 (LV)	± 4.4%	42%	48%	10%

Gavin Newsom vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Gavin Newsom Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
Emerson College	February 16–19, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	32%	49%	19%
New York Times/Siena College	October 22 – November 3, 2023	611 (LV)	± 4.4%	42%	48%	10%

Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Nikki Haley Republican	Other / Undecided
New York Times/Siena College	October 22 – November 3, 2023	611 (RV)	± 4.4%	37%	46%	17%

Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Ron DeSantis Republican	Other / Undecided
New York Times/Siena College	October 22 – November 3, 2023	611 (RV)	± 4.4%	41%	45%	14%
Vote TXT	May 15–19, 2023	412 (RV)	–	36%	46%	17%
Noble Predictive Insights	April 18–26, 2023	613 (RV)	± 4.0%	43%	42%	15%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)	April 17–20, 2023	500 (RV)	± 4.4%	41%	44%	10%
OH Predictive Insights	January 30 – February 6, 2023	800 (RV)	± 3.5%	36%	42%	22%
Emerson College	July 7–10, 2022	2,000 (RV)	± 2.1%	38%	43%	19%

Gavin Newsom vs. Ron DeSantis

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Gavin Newsom Democratic	Ron DeSantis Republican	Other / Undecided
Susquehanna Polling & Research	October 24–27, 2022	500 (LV)	± 4.3%	42%	46%	12%

See also

• United States presidential elections in Nevada
• 2024 United States presidential election
• 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
• 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
• 2024 United States elections

Notes

1. If a candidate wins all of Nevada's delegates, the NRP chair is automatically unbound. He has pledged his support to Trump.
2. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
3. Lars Mapstead (L) with 2%

Partisan clients

1. Poll sponsored by The Heritage Foundation
2. Poll sponsored by Capitol Resource Institute

References

1. Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
2. Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
3. Dorn, Sara. "Why RFK Jr. Could Hurt Biden Against Trump—As He Gains Ballot Access In Key Swing State". Forbes. Retrieved March 7, 2024.
4. "Silver State 2024 Election Results - Presidential Preference Primary". Secretary of State of Nevada . Retrieved February 6, 2024.
5. Jackson, Hugh (January 21, 2024). "Nikki Haley: Second to none?". The Nevada Current . Retrieved January 25, 2024.
6. "Silver State 2024 Presidential Preference Primary Election Results". Secretary of State of Nevada. February 6, 2024. Retrieved March 16, 2024.
7. "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
8. "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
9. "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
10. "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
11. "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
12. "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN . Retrieved January 14, 2024.