2024 United States presidential election in Nevada

Main article: 2024 United States presidential election

2024 United States presidential election in Nevada

←  2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →

Nominee Kamala Harris Donald Trump Party Democratic Republican Home state California Florida Running mate Tim Walz JD Vance

Incumbent President Joe Biden Democratic

The 2024 United States presidential election in Nevada is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Nevada voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Nevada has six electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat. ^[1]

A Mountain West state with a distinct libertarian streak, Nevada is considered to be a crucial swing state in 2024, although no Republican presidential nominee has won Nevada since George W. Bush's narrow victory in 2004. Except in 2008, the wins were always in single digits for Democrats; Obama won by less than 7% in 2012 and Trump lost by less than 2.5% in both 2016 and 2020.

Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden initially ran for reelection to a second term, ^[2] but withdrew from the election on July 21, 2024. ^[3] He then endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, who launched her presidential campaign the same day. ^[4] Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has gathered enough signatures to appear on the ballot, as he announced in March. ^[5]

Despite Donald Trump—the Republican nominee—not carrying Nevada in either of his two presidential campaigns, polling in the state showed Trump in a strong position to win the state against Biden, with Trump leading Biden in all major poll on Nevada's voting intention from October 2023 until Biden's withdrawal in July 2024. However, Kamala Harris, from neighboring California, has polled somewhat better since becoming the Democrats' presumptive nominee. ^[6]

Primary elections

Democratic primary

Main article: 2024 Nevada Democratic presidential primary

The Nevada Democratic primary was held on February 6, 2024.

Nevada Democratic primary, February 6, 2024 ^[7]

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Pledged	Unpledged	Total
Joe Biden (incumbent)	119,758	89.3%	36		36
None of These Candidates	7,448	5.6%
Marianne Williamson	4,101	3.1%
Gabriel Cornejo	811	0.6%
Jason Palmer	530	0.4%
Frankie Lozada	315	0.2%
Armando Perez-Serrato	264	0.2%
John Haywood	241	0.2%
Stephen Lyons	147	0.1%
Superpayaseria Crystalroc	133	0.1%
Donald Picard	124	0.1%
Brent Foutz	93	0.1%
Stephen Alan Leon	89	0.1%
Mark R. Prascak	33	<0.1%
Total:	134,087	100%	36	13	49

Republican nominating contests

Main article: 2024 Nevada Republican presidential nominating contests

Although the Nevada state government established a primary system in 2021, the state Republican Party chose to boycott the primary, scheduled for February 6, in favor of a party-organized caucus, scheduled for February 8. Votes from the primary will not be included in determining delegate allocation.

Nevada Republican primary, February 6, 2024 ^[8]

Candidate	Votes	Percentage
			None of These Candidates [9]	50,763	63.26%
Nikki Haley	24,583	30.63%
Mike Pence (withdrawn)	3,091	3.85%
Tim Scott (withdrawn)	1,081	1.35%
John Anthony Castro	270	0.34%
Hirsh V. Singh (withdrawn)	200	0.25%
Donald Kjornes	166	0.21%
Heath V. Fulkerson	95	0.12%
Total:	80,249	100.00%

Nevada Republican caucus, February 8, 2024 ^[10]

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Bound	Unbound	Total
Donald Trump	59,982	99.11%	25	1 [lower-alpha 1]	26
Ryan Binkley	540	0.89%	0	0	0
Total	60,522	100.00%	25	1	26

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Cook Political Report [11]	Tossup	August 8, 2024
Inside Elections [12]	Tossup	May 9, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball [13]	Tossup	June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill [14]	Tossup	December 14, 2023
CNalysis [15]	Tossup	August 15, 2024
CNN [16]	Tossup	August 15, 2024
The Economist [17]	Tossup	August 14, 2024
538 [18]	Tossup	June 11, 2024
RCP [19]	Tossup	August 15, 2024

Polling

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

As of August 15, the RealClearPolitics polling average shows Trump leading in Nevada with a spread of +1.3. The average shows Trump with 47.3%, compared with Harris at 46.0%, in the state. ^{[lower-alpha 2] [20]}

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 3]	Margin of error	Kamala Harris Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
Focaldata [21]	August 6–16, 2024	678 (LV)	± 3.8%	54%	46%	–
New York Times/Siena College [22]	August 12–15, 2024	677 (RV)	± 4.4%	46%	48%	6%
		677 (LV)	± 4.4%	47%	48%	5%
Trafalgar Group (R) [23]	August 6–8, 2024	1,087 (LV)	± 2.9%	45%	48%	7%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D) [24]	July 26 – August 8, 2024	403 (LV)	–	45%	48%	7%
Public Opinion Strategies (R) [25] [upper-alpha 1]	July 23–29, 2024	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	45%	46%	9%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [26]	July 24–28, 2024	454 (RV)	± 5.0%	47%	45%	7%
	July 21, 2024	Biden announces his withdrawal; Harris declares her candidacy for president.
InsiderAdvantage (R) [27]	July 15–16, 2024	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	40%	50%	10%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [28]	May 7–13, 2024	459 (RV)	± 5.0%	44%	47%	9%
Emerson College [29]	February 16–19, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	39%	48%	13%
New York Times/Siena College [30]	October 22–November 3, 2023	611 (RV)	± 4.4%	42%	48%	10%
		611 (LV)	± 4.4%	42%	50%	8%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 3]	Margin of error	Kamala Harris Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Cornel West Independent	Jill Stein Green	Chase Oliver Libertarian	Other / Undecided
Focaldata [31]	August 6–16, 2024	678 (LV)	± 3.8%	48%	42%	7%	–	0%	1%	2%
		678 (RV)	± 3.8%	49%	39%	9%	–	0%	1%	2%
		678 (A)	± 3.8%	49%	39%	9%	–	0%	1%	2%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [32]	August 12–15, 2024	536 (LV)	–	42%	43%	6%	–	1%	1%	7%
New York Times/Siena College [33]	August 12–15, 2024	677 (RV)	± 4.4%	42%	45%	6%	0%	1%	1%	6%
		677 (LV)	± 4.4%	44%	46%	4%	0%	1%	1%	4%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D) [34]	July 26–August 8, 2024	403 (LV)	–	42%	47%	5%	0%	1%	–	5%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [35]	July 31–August 3, 2024	470 (LV)	–	40%	40%	5%	–	1%	0%	14%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [26]	July 24–28, 2024	454 (RV)	± 5.0%	43%	43%	7%	–	1%	3%	3%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [36]	July 22–24, 2024	435 (LV)	–	43%	45%	5%	–	1%	0%	6%

Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 3]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
InsiderAdvantage (R) [27]	July 15–16, 2024	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	42%	49%	9%
Emerson College [37] [upper-alpha 2]	July 15–16, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	41%	46%	13%
Rasmussen Reports (R) [38] [upper-alpha 3]	July 5–12, 2024	761 (LV)	± 3.0%	45%	50%	5%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [39]	July 1–5, 2024	452 (RV)	± 5.0%	43%	48%	9%
Emerson College [40] [upper-alpha 2]	June 30 – July 2, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	41%	47%	12%
Remington Research Group (R) [41]	June 29 – July 1, 2024	601 (LV)	± 4.0%	40%	47%	13%
National Public Affairs [42]	June 28 – July 1, 2024	817 (LV)	± 3.4%	39%	49%	12% [lower-alpha 4]
Emerson College [43]	June 13–18, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	43%	46%	11%
		1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	50% [lower-alpha 5]	50%	–
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) [44] [upper-alpha 4]	June 12–18, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	45%	48%	7%
Fox News [45]	June 1–4, 2024	1,069 (RV)	± 3.0%	45%	50%	5%
The Tyson Group [46] [upper-alpha 5]	May 22–25, 2024	601 (LV)	± 4.0%	44%	47%	9%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University [47]	May 19–21, 2024	522 (RV)	± 4.3%	42%	50%	8%
		494 (LV)	± 4.3%	43%	51%	6%
Prime Group [48] [upper-alpha 6]	May 9–16, 2024	468 (RV)	–	50%	50%	–
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [28]	May 7–13, 2024	459 (RV)	± 5.0%	47%	47%	6%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D) [49]	May 6–13, 2024	402 (LV)	± 4.9%	40%	49%	11%
New York Times/Siena College [50]	April 28 – May 9, 2024	614 (RV)	± 4.0%	38%	50%	12%
		614 (LV)	± 4.0%	38%	51%	11%
Emerson College [51]	April 25–29, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	44%	45%	11%
		1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	49% [lower-alpha 5]	51%	–
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [52]	April 8–15, 2024	450 (RV)	± 5.0%	43%	51%	6%
Wall Street Journal [53]	March 17–24, 2024	600 (RV)	± 4.0%	44%	48%	8%
Echelon Insights [54] [upper-alpha 7]	March 12–19, 2024	400 (LV)	± 5.8%	44%	51%	5%
Emerson College [55]	March 12–15, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	41%	44%	15%
		1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	49% [lower-alpha 5]	51%	–
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [56]	March 8–15, 2024	447 (RV)	± 5.0%	44%	46%	10%
Noble Predictive Insights [57]	February 27 – March 5, 2024	829 (RV)	± 3.4%	40%	45%	15%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [58]	February 12–20, 2024	445 (RV)	± 5.0%	42%	48%	10%
Emerson College [29]	February 16–19, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	40%	46%	14%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [59]	January 16–21, 2024	457 (RV)	± 5.0%	40%	48%	12%
Emerson College [60]	January 5–8, 2024	1,294 (RV)	± 2.6%	45%	47%	8%
Change Research/Change Research/Future Majority (D) [61]	December 3–7, 2023	(RVs)	–	40%	44%	14%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [62]	November 27 – December 6, 2023	451 (RV)	± 5.0%	44%	47%	9%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [63]	October 30 – November 7, 2023	437 (RV)	± 5.0%	43%	46%	11%
Emerson College [64]	October 30 – November 4, 2023	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	39%	46%	14%
New York Times/Siena College [30]	October 22 – November 3, 2023	611 (RV)	± 4.4%	41%	52%	7%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [65]	October 5–10, 2023	503 (RV)	± 4.0%	46%	43%	11%
CNN [66]	September 29 – October 3, 2023	1,251 (RV)	± 4.6%	46%	45%	9%
Vote TXT [67]	May 15–19, 2023	412 (RV)	–	41%	48%	11%
Prime Group [68] [upper-alpha 8]	June 14–28, 2023	500 (RV)	–	51%	49%	–
		500 (RV)	–	39%	39%	22% [lower-alpha 6]
Noble Predictive Insights [69]	April 18–26, 2023	613 (RV)	± 4.0%	48%	40%	12%
Public Opinion Strategies (R) [70]	April 17–20, 2023	500 (RV)	± 4.4%	46%	45%	9%
OH Predictive Insights [71]	January 30 – February 6, 2023	800 (RV)	± 3.5%	40%	42%	18%
Rasmussen Reports (R) [72]	November 8–9, 2022	679 (LV)	± 4.0%	41%	45%	14%
Susquehanna Polling & Research [73]	October 24–27, 2022	500 (LV)	± 4.3%	47%	48%	5%
Rasmussen Reports (R) [74] [upper-alpha 9]	October 13–17, 2022	707 (LV)	± 4.0%	37%	49%	14%
Emerson College [75]	September 8–10, 2022	1,000 (LV)	± 3.0%	40%	43%	17%
Emerson College [76]	July 7–10, 2022	2,000 (RV)	± 2.1%	40%	43%	17%
Blueprint Polling (D) [77]	March 21–24, 2022	671 (LV)	± 3.8%	34%	44%	22%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 3]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Cornel West Independent	Jill Stein Green	Other / Undecided
Emerson College [37] [upper-alpha 2]	July 15–16, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	40%	43%	7%	1%	1%	8% [lower-alpha 7]
Rasmussen Reports (R) [38] [upper-alpha 3]	July 5–12, 2024	761 (LV)	± 3.0%	39%	47%	8%	2%	1%	3%
YouGov [78] [upper-alpha 10]	July 4–12, 2024	800 (RV)	± 4.7%	42%	46%	3%	0%	1%	8%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [39]	July 1–5, 2024	452 (RV)	± 5.0%	39%	45%	6%	2%	0%	8% [lower-alpha 8]
National Public Affairs [42]	June 28 – July 1, 2024	817 (LV)	± 3.4%	33%	42%	12%	3%	2%	8%
Emerson College [43]	June 13–18, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	39%	42%	7%	2%	2%	8%
Fox News [45]	June 1–4, 2024	1,069 (RV)	± 3.0%	40%	45%	7%	2%	2%	4%
The Tyson Group [46] [upper-alpha 11]	May 22–25, 2024	601 (LV)	± 4.0%	37%	40%	9%	1%	2%	11%
Prime Group [48] [upper-alpha 6]	May 9–16, 2024	468 (RV)	–	43%	44%	10%	3%	0%	–
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [28]	May 7–13, 2024	459 (RV)	± 5.0%	39%	44%	7%	2%	1%	7%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D) [49]	May 6–13, 2024	402 (LV)	± 4.9%	35%	43%	10%	2%	3%	7%
New York Times/Siena College [50]	April 28 – May 9, 2024	614 (RV)	± 4.0%	27%	41%	12%	0%	2%	18% [lower-alpha 9]
		614 (LV)	± 4.0%	30%	44%	11%	0%	1%	14% [lower-alpha 9]
Emerson College [51]	April 25–29, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	37%	42%	8%	2%	1%	11%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [52]	April 8–15, 2024	450 (RV)	± 5.0%	34%	48%	7%	2%	3%	6%
Wall Street Journal [53]	March 17–24, 2024	600 (RV)	± 4.0%	33%	37%	15%	2%	2%	11% [lower-alpha 9]
Emerson College [55]	March 12–15, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	36%	41%	9%	1%	2%	11%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [56]	March 8–15, 2024	447 (RV)	± 5.0%	36%	42%	11%	1%	1%	11%
Noble Predictive Insights [57]	February 27 – March 5, 2024	829 (RV)	± 3.4%	33%	40%	11%	4%	2%	10%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [58]	February 12–20, 2024	445 (RV)	± 5.0%	37%	44%	9%	1%	0%	9%
Emerson College [29]	February 16–19, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	34%	44%	6%	1%	1%	14%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [59]	January 16–21, 2024	457 (RV)	± 5.0%	31%	43%	12%	1%	2%	11%
Emerson College [60]	January 5–8, 2024	1,294 (RV)	± 2.6%	39%	42%	5%	1%	1%	12%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [79]	November 27 – December 6, 2023	451 (RV)	± 5.0%	37%	42%	11%	2%	1%	7%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 3]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Other / Undecided
P2 Insights [80] [upper-alpha 12]	June 11–20, 2024	650 (LV)	± 3.8%	37%	40%	8%	15%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) [44] [upper-alpha 4]	June 12–18, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	37%	44%	10%	9%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University [47]	May 19–21, 2024	522 (RV)	± 4.3%	40%	44%	9%	7%
		494 (LV)	± 4.3%	40%	46%	8%	6%
Iron Light Intelligence [81] [upper-alpha 13]	May 17–21, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	34%	37%	15%	14%
New York Times/Siena College [82]	October 22 – November 3, 2023	611 (LV)	± 4.4%	31%	38%	23%	8%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 3]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Cornel West Independent	Other / Undecided
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [83]	October 30 – November 7, 2023	437 (RV)	± 5.0%	35%	39%	11%	1%	14%

Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 3]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Nikki Haley Republican	Other / Undecided
New York Times/Siena College [84]	October 22 – November 3, 2023	611 (RV)	± 4.4%	37%	46%	17%

Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 3]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Ron DeSantis Republican	Other / Undecided
New York Times/Siena College [84]	October 22 – November 3, 2023	611 (RV)	± 4.4%	41%	45%	14%
Vote TXT [67]	May 15–19, 2023	412 (RV)	–	36%	46%	17%
Noble Predictive Insights [69]	April 18–26, 2023	613 (RV)	± 4.0%	43%	42%	15%
Public Opinion Strategies (R) [70]	April 17–20, 2023	500 (RV)	± 4.4%	41%	44%	10%
OH Predictive Insights [71]	January 30 – February 6, 2023	800 (RV)	± 3.5%	36%	42%	22%
Emerson College [76]	July 7–10, 2022	2,000 (RV)	± 2.1%	38%	43%	19%

Gavin Newsom vs. Ron DeSantis

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 3]	Margin of error	Gavin Newsom Democratic	Ron DeSantis Republican	Other / Undecided
Susquehanna Polling & Research [73]	October 24–27, 2022	500 (LV)	± 4.3%	42%	46%	12%

Gavin Newsom vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 3]	Margin of error	Gavin Newsom Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
Emerson College [29]	February 16–19, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	32%	49%	19%

See also

• United States presidential elections in Nevada
• 2024 United States presidential election
• 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
• 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
• 2024 United States elections

Notes

1. If a candidate wins all of Nevada's delegates, the NRP chair is automatically unbound. He has pledged his support to Trump.
2. As of 8/17/24, the RCP polling average for the race in Nevada was calculated from polls taken between July 15 - August 8 from pollsters Trafalgar Group, Cook Political Report, Bloomberg/MrnConsult, and NY Times/Siena.
3. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
4. Chase Oliver (L) with 0%
5. With voters who lean towards a given candidate
6. No Labels candidate
7. Chase Oliver (L) with 1%
8. Chase Oliver (L) with 1%
9. Lars Mapstead (L) with 2%

Partisan clients

1. Poll conducted for Competitiveness Coalition
2. Poll sponsored by Democrats for the Next Generation PAC
3. Poll sponsored by The Heartland Institute
4. Poll commissioned by AARP
5. Poll sponsored by Breaking Battlegrounds
6. Poll sponsored by Citizens to Save Our Republic PAC, which opposes Trump
7. Poll sponsored by The Heritage Foundation
8. Poll sponsored by Citizens to Save Our Republic PAC
9. Poll sponsored by Capitol Resource Institute
10. Poll conducted for The Times , Stanford University, Arizona State University, and Yale University
11. Poll sponsored by Breaking Battlegrounds
12. Poll sponsored by Building America's Future, which supports Republican candidates
13. Poll commissioned by League of American Workers

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