2024 United States presidential election in Nevada

Main article: 2024 United States presidential election

2024 United States presidential election in Nevada

←  2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →
Turnout	72.84% [1] ( 5.38%)
Nominee Donald Trump Kamala Harris Party Republican Democratic Home state Florida California Running mate JD Vance Tim Walz Electoral vote 6 0 Popular vote 751,205 705,197 Percentage 50.59% 47.49%
County results Congressional district results Trump   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90% Harris   40–50%   50–60%
President before election Joe Biden Democratic Elected President Donald Trump Republican

The 2024 United States presidential election in Nevada took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states, plus the District of Columbia, participated. Nevada voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Nevada has six electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census, in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat. ^[2]

Despite Trump, who was running under the Republican banner a third consecutive time, not carrying Nevada in either of his past two presidential campaigns, polling in the state showed Trump in a strong position to win the state against Biden, with Trump leading Biden in all major polls on Nevada's voting intention from October 2023 until Biden's withdrawal in July 2024. The Silver State also elected a Republican governor in 2022. However, Kamala Harris, from neighboring California, had polled somewhat better since becoming the Democratic nominee. The state was rated as a tossup by nearly all major news organizations. ^[3]

Despite more competitive polling after Harris entered the race, Trump won Nevada, defeating Harris by over three percentage points and becoming the first Republican to win the state since George W. Bush in 2004. Trump's gains with Latino and Filipino voters were crucial to him flipping the state ^{[4] [5]} , and his 750,000 votes set a new record for votes cast for any candidate in state history.

Background

Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden initially ran for re-election to a second term, ^[6] but withdrew from the election on July 21, 2024. ^[7] He then endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, who launched her presidential campaign the same day. ^[8] Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. had gathered enough signatures to appear on the ballot, as he announced in March, ^[9] but later announced on August 23, 2024, that he was suspending his campaign in swing states, including Nevada. ^[10]

Primary elections

Democratic primary

Main article: 2024 Nevada Democratic presidential primary

The Nevada Democratic primary was held on February 6, 2024.

Nevada Democratic primary, February 6, 2024 ^[11]

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Pledged	Unpledged	Total
Joe Biden (incumbent)	119,758	89.3%	36		36
None of These Candidates	7,448	5.6%
Marianne Williamson	4,101	3.1%
Gabriel Cornejo	811	0.6%
Jason Palmer	530	0.4%
Frankie Lozada	315	0.2%
Armando Perez-Serrato	264	0.2%
John Haywood	241	0.2%
Stephen Lyons	147	0.1%
Superpayaseria Crystalroc	133	0.1%
Donald Picard	124	0.1%
Brent Foutz	93	0.1%
Stephen Alan Leon	89	0.1%
Mark R. Prascak	33	<0.1%
Total:	134,087	100%	36	13	49

Republican nominating contests

Main article: 2024 Nevada Republican presidential nominating contests

Although the Nevada state government established a primary system in 2021, the state Republican Party chose to boycott the primary, scheduled for February 6, in favor of a party-organized caucus, scheduled for February 8. Votes from the primary were not included in determining delegate allocation.

Nevada Republican primary, February 6, 2024 ^[12]

Candidate	Votes	Percentage
			None of These Candidates [13]	50,763	63.26%
Nikki Haley	24,583	30.63%
Mike Pence (withdrawn)	3,091	3.85%
Tim Scott (withdrawn)	1,081	1.35%
John Anthony Castro	270	0.34%
Hirsh V. Singh (withdrawn)	200	0.25%
Donald Kjornes	166	0.21%
Heath V. Fulkerson	95	0.12%
Total:	80,249	100.00%

Nevada Republican caucus, February 8, 2024 ^[14]

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Bound	Unbound	Total
Donald Trump	59,982	99.11%	25	1 [a]	26
Ryan Binkley	540	0.89%	0	0	0
Total	60,522	100.00%	25	1	26

General election

Voting law changes

By 2022, every voter gets a mail-in ballot unless they opt-out and eligible voters are automatically registered after common transactions at the DMV. ^[15]

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report [16]	Tossup	November 4, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball [17]	Lean D	November 4, 2024
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill [18]	Tossup	November 4, 2024
CNN [19]	Tossup	November 4, 2024
CNalysis [20]	Tilt D	November 4, 2024
The Economist [21]	Tossup	November 4, 2024
538 [22]	Tossup	November 4, 2024
Inside Elections [23]	Tossup	November 3, 2024
NBC News [24]	Tossup	November 4, 2024

Polling

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Aggregate polls

Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Kamala Harris Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided [b]	Margin
270ToWin [25]	October 22 – November 4, 2024	November 4, 2024	47.6%	48.2%	4.2%	Trump +0.6%
538 [26]	through November 4, 2024	November 4, 2024	47.4%	47.7%	4.8%	Trump +0.3%
Silver Bulletin [27]	through November 4, 2024	November 5, 2024	47.9%	48.5%	3.6%	Trump +0.6%
The Hill/DDHQ [28]	through November 4, 2024	November 5, 2024	47.5%	49.2%	3.3%	Trump +1.7%
Average			47.6%	48.3%	4.1%	Trump +0.7%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [c]	Margin of error	Kamala Harris Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
HarrisX [29]	November 3–5, 2024	1,260 (RV)	± 2.8%	47%	46%	7%
				51.6% [d]	48.5%	–
		1,125 (LV)		48%	48%	4%
				50.5% [d]	49.5%	–
AtlasIntel [30]	November 3–4, 2024	707 (LV)	± 4.0%	47%	50%	3%
				47%	50%	3% [e]
Patriot Polling [31]	November 1–3, 2024	792 (RV)	± 3.0%	49%	50%	1%
AtlasIntel [32]	November 1–2, 2024	782 (LV)	± 4.0%	46%	52%	2% [e]
				46%	51%	3%
Emerson College [33]	October 30 – November 2, 2024	840 (LV)	± 3.3%	48%	48%	4% [f]
				49% [d]	49%	1% [f]
New York Times/Siena College [34]	October 24 – November 2, 2024	1,010 (RV)	± 3.5%	48%	46%	6%
		1,010 (LV)		49%	46%	5%
AtlasIntel [35]	October 30–31, 2024	845 (LV)	± 3.0%	47%	51%	2%
				47%	51%	2% [g]
Emerson College [36] [A]	October 29–31, 2024	700 (LV)	± 3.6%	48%	47%	5% [h]
				49% [d]	48%	3% [h]
Noble Predictive Insights [37]	October 28–31, 2024	593 (LV)	± 4.0%	49%	48%	3%
Susquehanna Polling & Research [38]	October 28–31, 2024	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	44%	50%	6%
YouGov [39] [B]	October 25–31, 2024	790 (RV)	± 4.6%	50%	49%	1%
		773 (LV)		50%	49%	1%
Data for Progress (D) [40]	October 25–30, 2024	721 (LV)	± 4.0%	49%	47%	4%
Rasmussen Reports (R) [41] [C]	October 25–30, 2024	767 (LV)	± 3.0%	47%	49%	4% [g]
AtlasIntel [42]	October 25–29, 2024	1,083 (LV)	± 3.0%	48%	49%	3%
				48%	48%	4% [g]
Trafalgar Group (R) [43]	October 25–28, 2024	1,082 (LV)	± 2.9%	48%	48%	4% [i]
CES/YouGov [44]	October 1–25, 2024	940 (A)	–	53%	44%	3%
		933 (LV)		51%	47%	2%
InsiderAdvantage (R) [45]	October 20–21, 2024	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	48%	48%	4% [g]
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [46]	October 16–20, 2024	449 (RV)	± 5.0%	49%	48%	3%
		420 (LV)		49%	48%	3%
AtlasIntel [47]	October 12–17, 2024	1,171 (LV)	± 3.0%	48%	48%	4%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) [48] [D]	October 8−15, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	47%	49%	4% [j]
Morning Consult [49]	October 6−15, 2024	496 (LV)	± 4.0%	49%	45%	6%
Washington Post/Schar School [50]	September 30 – October 15, 2024	652 (RV)	± 4.8%	47%	44%	9%
		652 (LV)		48%	48%	4%
Rasmussen Reports (R) [51] [C]	October 9–14, 2024	748 (LV)	± 3.0%	47%	49%	4% [i]
Trafalgar Group (R) [52]	October 10–13, 2024	1,088 (LV)	± 2.9%	46%	45%	9% [k]
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)/McLaughlin & Associates (R) [53] [E]	October 6–9, 2024	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	47%	50%	3%
Emerson College [54]	October 5–8, 2024	900 (LV)	± 3.2%	48%	47%	5% [l]
				49% [d]	48%	3% [m]
Wall Street Journal [55]	September 28 – October 8, 2024	600 (RV)	± 5.0%	43%	49%	8%
RMG Research [56] [F]	September 30 – October 3, 2024	782 (LV)	± 3.5%	49%	47%	4% [n]
				49% [d]	49%	2% [o]
OnMessage Inc. (R) [57] [G]	September 24 – October 2, 2024	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	45%	47%	8%
InsiderAdvantage (R) [58]	September 29–30, 2024	800 (LV)	± 3.0%	48%	49%	1% [g]
Global Strategy Group (D)/North Star Opinion Research (R) [59] [H]	September 23–29, 2024	407 (LV)	± 4.9%	48%	47%	5%
TIPP Insights [60] [I]	September 23−25, 2024	1,044 (RV)	± 3.7%	48%	44%	8%
		736 (LV)		49%	48%	3%
Quantus Insights (R) [61] [J]	September 23−25, 2024	628 (LV)	± 4.0%	48%	49%	3% [p]
AtlasIntel [62]	September 20–25, 2024	858 (LV)	± 3.0%	51%	48%	1%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D) [63]	September 19–25, 2024	409 (LV)	–	48%	47%	5%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [64]	September 19–25, 2024	574 (RV)	± 4.0%	49%	45%	6%
		516 (LV)		52%	45%	3%
Rasmussen Reports (R) [65] [C]	September 19−22, 2024	738 (LV)	± 3.0%	48%	49%	3%
Remington Research Group (R) [66] [K]	September 16–20, 2024	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	48%	49%	3%
The Tarrance Group (R) [67] [L]	September 16–19, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.1%	47%	44%	9% [q]
Emerson College [68]	September 15–18, 2024	895 (LV)	± 3.2%	48%	48%	4% [r]
				49% [d]	49%	2% [r]
Morning Consult [49]	September 9−18, 2024	474 (LV)	± 5.0%	51%	47%	2%
Noble Predictive Insights [69]	September 9−16, 2024	812 (RV)	± 3.4%	48%	45%	7%
		692 (LV)	± 3.7%	48%	47%	5%
Trafalgar Group (R) [70]	September 11–13, 2024	1,079 (LV)	± 2.9%	45%	44%	11% [s]
Morning Consult [49]	August 30 – September 8, 2024	516 (LV)	± 4.0%	48%	48%	4%
Patriot Polling [71]	September 1–3, 2024	788 (RV)	–	47%	47%	6%
InsiderAdvantage (R) [72]	August 29–31, 2024	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	47%	48%	5% [t]
Emerson College [73]	August 25–28, 2024	1,168 (LV)	± 2.8%	49%	48%	3% [u]
				49% [d]	49%	1% [v]
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [74]	August 23–26, 2024	416 (LV)	± 5.0%	50%	46%	4%
		450 (RV)		49%	45%	6%
Fox News [75]	August 23–26, 2024	1,026 (RV)	± 3.0%	50%	48%	2% [g]
	August 23, 2024	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump.
	August 19–22, 2024	Democratic National Convention
Rasmussen Reports (R) [76] [M]	August 13–18, 2024	980 (LV)	± 3.0%	46%	48%	6%
Focaldata [77]	August 6–16, 2024	678 (LV)	± 3.8%	54%	46%	–
New York Times/Siena College [78]	August 12–15, 2024	677 (RV)	± 4.4%	46%	48%	6%
		677 (LV)		47%	48%	5%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D) [79]	July 26 – August 8, 2024	403 (LV)	–	45%	48%	7%
	August 6, 2024	Kamala Harris selects Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate.
Public Opinion Strategies (R) [80] [N]	July 23–29, 2024	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	45%	46%	9%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [81]	July 24–28, 2024	454 (RV)	± 5.0%	47%	45%	7%
	July 21, 2024	Joe Biden announces his withdrawal; Kamala Harris declares her candidacy for president.
	July 18, 2024	Republican National Convention concludes
InsiderAdvantage (R) [82]	July 15–16, 2024	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	40%	50%	10%
	July 15, 2024	Republican National Convention begins
	July 13, 2024	attempted assassination of Donald Trump
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [83]	May 7–13, 2024	459 (RV)	± 5.0%	44%	47%	9%
Emerson College [84]	February 16–19, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	39%	48%	13%
New York Times/Siena College [85]	October 22 – November 3, 2023	611 (RV)	± 4.4%	42%	48%	10%
		611 (LV)		42%	50%	8%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Aggregate polls

Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Kamala Harris Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Jill Stein [w] Green	Cornel West [w] Independent	Chase Oliver Libertarian	Other/ Undecided [b]	Margin
Race to the WH [86]	through November 2, 2024	November 3, 2024	47.9%	47.3%	—	—	1.2%	3.6%	Harris +0.6%
270toWin [87]	October 22 – November 3, 2024	November 3, 2024	47.8%	47.4%	0.0%	0.0%	1.0%	3.8%	Harris +0.4%
Average			47.9%	47.4%	0.0%	0.0%	1.1%	3.7%	Harris +0.5%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [c]	Margin of error	Kamala Harris Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Cornel West [w] Independent	Jill Stein [w] Green	Chase Oliver Libertarian	Other / Undecided
HarrisX [29]	November 3–5, 2024	1,260 (RV)	± 2.8%	46%	45%	2%	1%	–	6%
				50% [d]	46%	3%	1%	–	–
		1,125 (LV)		48%	47%	2%	1%	–	2%
				49% [d]	48%	2%	1%	–	–
New York Times/Siena College [34]	October 24 – November 2, 2024	1,010 (RV)	± 3.5%	47%	44%	–	–	3%	6%
		1,010 (LV)		48%	46%	–	–	2%	4%
Focaldata [88]	October 3 – November 1, 2024	1,324 (LV)	–	48%	47%	–	0%	1%	4%
		1,197 (RV)	± 2.7%	49%	45%	–	0%	2%	4%
		1,324 (A)	–	48%	44%	–	0%	2%	1%
Noble Predictive Insights [37]	October 28–31, 2024	593 (LV)	± 4.0%	49%	48%	–	–	0%	3% [x]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [89]	October 28–31, 2024	690 (LV)	–	47%	48%	–	0%	1%	4%
YouGov [39] [B]	October 25–31, 2024	790 (RV)	± 4.6%	48%	47%	0%	0%	–	5%
		773 (LV)		48%	47%	0%	0%	–	5%
Data for Progress (D) [40]	October 25–30, 2024	721 (LV)	± 4.0%	49%	47%	–	–	1%	3% [x]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [90]	October 25–27, 2024	531 (LV)	–	47%	47%	–	–	1%	6%
CNN/SSRS [91]	October 21–26, 2024	683 (LV)	± 4.6%	47%	48%	–	–	1%	4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [92]	October 20–22, 2024	540 (LV)	–	46%	47%	–	0%	0%	7%
OnMessage Inc. (R) [93] [O]	October 19–22, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	47%	50%	–	–	0%	3%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [46]	October 16–20, 2024	449 (RV)	± 5.0%	48%	47%	–	0%	2%	3%
		420 (LV)		48%	48%	–	0%	1%	3%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [94]	October 16–18, 2024	529 (LV)	–	46%	47%	–	1%	1%	5%
AtlasIntel [47]	October 12–17, 2024	1,171 (LV)	± 3.0%	48%	48%	–	2%	0%	2%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) [48] [D]	October 8−15, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	46%	47%	–	–	1%	6% [j]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [95]	October 12–14, 2024	838 (LV)	–	47%	47%	–	0%	1%	5%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [96]	September 27 – October 2, 2024	514 (LV)	–	48%	47%	–	1%	1%	3%
TIPP Insights [60] [I]	September 23−25, 2024	1,044 (RV)	± 3.7%	48%	43%	1%	0%	−	9%
		736 (LV)		50%	49%	0%	0%	−	1%
AtlasIntel [62]	September 20–25, 2024	858 (LV)	± 3.0%	51%	48%	–	1%	–	–
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [64]	September 19–25, 2024	574 (RV)	± 4.0%	46%	44%	–	3%	4%	3%
		516 (LV)		50%	44%	–	2%	2%	2%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [97]	September 16–19, 2024	652 (LV)	–	45%	45%	–	0%	1%	9%
Noble Predictive Insights [69]	September 9−16, 2024	812 (RV)	± 3.4%	46%	43%	–	0%	1%	10% [y]
		692 (LV)	± 3.7%	47%	47%	–	0%	1%	5% [z]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [98]	September 6–9, 2024	698 (LV)	–	45%	46%	–	1%	1%	7%
YouGov [99] [B]	August 23 – September 3, 2024	800 (RV)	± 4.7%	49%	46%	0%	1%	–	4% [g]
CNN/SSRS [100]	August 23–29, 2024	976 (LV)	± 4.4%	48%	47%	–	1%	1%	3%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [101]	August 25–28, 2024	490 (LV)	–	47%	47%	–	1%	0%	5%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [74]	August 23–26, 2024	416 (LV)	± 5.0%	48%	46%	–	2%	3%	1%
		450 (RV)		48%	45%	–	2%	4%	1%
Fox News [75]	August 23–26, 2024	1,026 (RV)	± 3.0%	48%	46%	2%	1%	1%	2% [g]

Hypothetical polling with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [c]	Margin of error	Kamala Harris Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Cornel West Independent	Jill Stein Green	Chase Oliver Libertarian	Other / Undecided
Wall Street Journal [55]	September 28 – October 8, 2024	600 (RV)	± 5.0%	42%	47%	0%	0%	0%	3%	8%
Global Strategy Group (D)/North Star Opinion Research (R) [59] [H]	September 23–29, 2024	407 (LV)	± 4.9%	47%	47%	0%	0%	0%	2%	4%
Rasmussen Reports (R) [76] [M]	August 13–18, 2024	980 (LV)	± 3.0%	44%	46%	5%	0%	0%	1%	4%
Focaldata [77]	August 6–16, 2024	678 (LV)	± 3.8%	48%	42%	7%	–	0%	1%	2%
		678 (RV)		49%	39%	9%	–	0%	1%	2%
		678 (A)		49%	39%	9%	–	0%	1%	2%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [102]	August 12–15, 2024	536 (LV)	–	42%	43%	6%	–	1%	1%	7%
New York Times/Siena College [78]	August 12–15, 2024	677 (RV)	± 4.4%	42%	45%	6%	0%	1%	1%	6%
		677 (LV)		44%	46%	4%	0%	1%	1%	4%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D) [79]	July 26 – August 8, 2024	403 (LV)	–	42%	47%	5%	0%	1%	–	5%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [103]	July 31 – August 3, 2024	470 (LV)	–	40%	40%	5%	–	1%	0%	14%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [81]	July 24–28, 2024	454 (RV)	± 5.0%	43%	43%	7%	–	1%	3%	3%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [104]	July 22–24, 2024	435 (LV)	–	43%	45%	5%	–	1%	0%	6%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [c]	Margin of error	Kamala Harris Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Other / Undecided
Strategies 360 [105]	August 7–14, 2024	350 (RV)	± 5.2%	48%	42%	5%	5%
Trafalgar Group (R) [106]	August 6–8, 2024	1,087 (LV)	± 2.9%	45%	48%	3%	4% [aa]

Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [c]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
	July 21, 2024	Joe Biden announces his withdrawal; Kamala Harris declares her candidacy for president.
InsiderAdvantage (R) [82]	July 15–16, 2024	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	42%	49%	9%
Emerson College [107] [P]	July 15–16, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	41%	46%	13%
Rasmussen Reports (R) [108] [Q]	July 5–12, 2024	761 (LV)	± 3.0%	45%	50%	5%
Echelon Insights [109] [R]	July 1–8, 2024	402 (LV)	± 6.6%	41%	50%	9%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [110]	July 1–5, 2024	452 (RV)	± 5.0%	43%	48%	9%
Emerson College [111] [P]	June 30 – July 2, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	41%	47%	12%
Remington Research Group (R) [112]	June 29 – July 1, 2024	601 (LV)	± 4.0%	40%	47%	13%
National Public Affairs [113]	June 28 – July 1, 2024	817 (LV)	± 3.4%	39%	49%	12% [ab]
Emerson College [114]	June 13–18, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	43%	46%	11%
				50% [d]	50%	–
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) [115] [D]	June 12–18, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	45%	48%	7%
Fox News [116]	June 1–4, 2024	1,069 (RV)	± 3.0%	45%	50%	5%
The Tyson Group [117] [S]	May 22–25, 2024	601 (LV)	± 4.0%	44%	47%	9%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University [118]	May 19–21, 2024	522 (RV)	± 4.3%	42%	50%	8%
		494 (LV)		43%	51%	6%
Prime Group [119] [T]	May 9–16, 2024	468 (RV)	–	50%	50%	–
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [83]	May 7–13, 2024	459 (RV)	± 5.0%	47%	47%	6%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D) [120]	May 6–13, 2024	402 (LV)	± 4.9%	40%	49%	11%
New York Times/Siena College [121]	April 28 – May 9, 2024	614 (RV)	± 4.0%	38%	50%	12%
		614 (LV)		38%	51%	11%
Emerson College [122]	April 25–29, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	44%	45%	11%
				49% [d]	51%	–
John Zogby Strategies [123] [U]	April 13–21, 2024	517 (LV)	–	44%	50%	6%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [124]	April 8–15, 2024	450 (RV)	± 5.0%	43%	51%	6%
Wall Street Journal [125]	March 17–24, 2024	600 (RV)	± 4.0%	44%	48%	8%
Echelon Insights [126] [V]	March 12–19, 2024	400 (LV)	± 5.8%	44%	51%	5%
Emerson College [127]	March 12–15, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	41%	44%	15%
				49% [d]	51%	–
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [128]	March 8–15, 2024	447 (RV)	± 5.0%	44%	46%	10%
Noble Predictive Insights [129]	February 27 – March 5, 2024	829 (RV)	± 3.4%	40%	45%	15%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [130]	February 12–20, 2024	445 (RV)	± 5.0%	42%	48%	10%
Emerson College [84]	February 16–19, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	40%	46%	14%
Focaldata [131]	January 17–23, 2024	704 (A)	–	40%	43%	17% [ac]
		– (LV)		42%	44%	14% [ad]
		– (LV)		49% [d]	51%	–
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [132]	January 16–21, 2024	457 (RV)	± 5.0%	40%	48%	12%
Emerson College [133]	January 5–8, 2024	1,294 (RV)	± 2.6%	45%	47%	8%
Change Research (D)/Future Majority (D) [134]	December 3–7, 2023	(RVs)	–	40%	44%	14%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [135]	November 27 – December 6, 2023	451 (RV)	± 5.0%	44%	47%	9%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [136]	October 30 – November 7, 2023	437 (RV)	± 5.0%	43%	46%	11%
Emerson College [137]	October 30 – November 4, 2023	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	39%	46%	14%
New York Times/Siena College [85]	October 22 – November 3, 2023	611 (RV)	± 4.4%	41%	52%	7%
		611 (LV)		41%	52%	7%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [138]	October 5–10, 2023	503 (RV)	± 4.0%	46%	43%	11%
CNN [139]	September 29 – October 3, 2023	1,251 (RV)	± 4.6%	46%	45%	9%
Vote TXT [140]	May 15–19, 2023	412 (RV)	–	41%	48%	11%
Prime Group [141] [T]	June 14–28, 2023	500 (RV)	–	51%	49%	–
				39%	39%	22% [ae]
Noble Predictive Insights [142]	April 18–26, 2023	613 (RV)	± 4.0%	48%	40%	12%
Public Opinion Strategies (R) [143]	April 17–20, 2023	500 (RV)	± 4.4%	46%	45%	9%
OH Predictive Insights [144]	January 30 – February 6, 2023	800 (RV)	± 3.5%	40%	42%	18%
Rasmussen Reports (R) [145] [M]	November 8–9, 2022	679 (LV)	± 4.0%	41%	45%	14%
Susquehanna Polling & Research [146] [W]	October 24–27, 2022	500 (LV)	± 4.3%	47%	48%	5%
Rasmussen Reports (R) [147] [X]	October 13–17, 2022	707 (LV)	± 4.0%	37%	49%	14%
Emerson College [148]	September 8–10, 2022	1,000 (LV)	± 3.0%	40%	43%	17%
Emerson College [149]	July 7–10, 2022	2,000 (RV)	± 2.1%	40%	43%	17%
Blueprint Polling (D) [150]	March 21–24, 2022	671 (LV)	± 3.8%	34%	44%	22%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [c]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Cornel West Independent	Jill Stein Green	Other / Undecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [151]	July 16–18, 2024	412 (LV)	–	41%	44%	7%	–	1%	7% [ab]
Emerson College [107] [P]	July 15–16, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	40%	43%	7%	1%	1%	8% [af]
Rasmussen Reports (R) [108] [Q]	July 5–12, 2024	761 (LV)	± 3.0%	39%	47%	8%	2%	1%	3%
YouGov [152] [B]	July 4–12, 2024	800 (RV)	± 4.7%	42%	46%	3%	0%	1%	8%
Echelon Insights [109] [R]	July 1–8, 2024	402 (LV)	± 6.6%	35%	45%	9%	2%	2%	7% [af]
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [110]	July 1–5, 2024	452 (RV)	± 5.0%	39%	45%	6%	2%	0%	8% [af]
National Public Affairs [113]	June 28 – July 1, 2024	817 (LV)	± 3.4%	33%	42%	12%	3%	2%	8%
Emerson College [114]	June 13–18, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	39%	42%	7%	2%	2%	8%
Fox News [116]	June 1–4, 2024	1,069 (RV)	± 3.0%	40%	45%	7%	2%	2%	4%
The Tyson Group [117] [Y]	May 22–25, 2024	601 (LV)	± 4.0%	37%	40%	9%	1%	2%	11%
Prime Group [119] [T]	May 9–16, 2024	468 (RV)	–	43%	44%	10%	3%	0%	–
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [83]	May 7–13, 2024	459 (RV)	± 5.0%	39%	44%	7%	2%	1%	7%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D) [120]	May 6–13, 2024	402 (LV)	± 4.9%	35%	43%	10%	2%	3%	7%
New York Times/Siena College [121]	April 28 – May 9, 2024	614 (RV)	± 4.0%	27%	41%	12%	0%	2%	18% [ag]
		614 (LV)		30%	44%	11%	0%	1%	14% [ag]
Emerson College [122]	April 25–29, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	37%	42%	8%	2%	1%	11%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [124]	April 8–15, 2024	450 (RV)	± 5.0%	34%	48%	7%	2%	3%	6%
Wall Street Journal [125]	March 17–24, 2024	600 (RV)	± 4.0%	33%	37%	15%	2%	2%	11% [ag]
Emerson College [127]	March 12–15, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	36%	41%	9%	1%	2%	11%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [128]	March 8–15, 2024	447 (RV)	± 5.0%	36%	42%	11%	1%	1%	11%
Noble Predictive Insights [129]	February 27 – March 5, 2024	829 (RV)	± 3.4%	33%	40%	11%	4%	2%	10%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [130]	February 12–20, 2024	445 (RV)	± 5.0%	37%	44%	9%	1%	0%	9%
Emerson College [84]	February 16–19, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	34%	44%	6%	1%	1%	14%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [132]	January 16–21, 2024	457 (RV)	± 5.0%	31%	43%	12%	1%	2%	11%
Emerson College [133]	January 5–8, 2024	1,294 (RV)	± 2.6%	39%	42%	5%	1%	1%	12%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [153]	November 27 – December 6, 2023	451 (RV)	± 5.0%	37%	42%	11%	2%	1%	7%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [c]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Other / Undecided
P2 Insights [154] [Z]	June 11–20, 2024	650 (LV)	± 3.8%	37%	40%	8%	15%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) [115] [D]	June 12–18, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	37%	44%	10%	9%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University [118]	May 19–21, 2024	522 (RV)	± 4.3%	40%	44%	9%	7%
		494 (LV)		40%	46%	8%	6%
Iron Light Intelligence [155] [AA]	May 17–21, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	34%	37%	15%	14%
P2 Insights [156] [Z]	May 13−21, 2024	650 (LV)	± 3.8%	40%	41%	9%	10%
New York Times/Siena College [157]	October 22 – November 3, 2023	611 (RV)	± 4.4%	31%	38%	23%	8%
		611 (LV)		34%	40%	19%	7%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [c]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Cornel West Independent	Other / Undecided
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [158]	October 30 – November 7, 2023	437 (RV)	± 5.0%	35%	39%	11%	1%	14%

Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [c]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Other / Undecided
John Zogby Strategies [123] [U]	April 13–21, 2024	517 (LV)	–	39%	51%	10%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [c]	Margin of error	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
John Zogby Strategies [123] [U]	April 13–21, 2024	517 (LV)	–	40%	46%	14%

Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [c]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Nikki Haley Republican	Other / Undecided
New York Times/Siena College [159]	October 22 – November 3, 2023	611 (RV)	± 4.4%	38%	44%	18%
		611 (LV)		37%	46%	17%

Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [c]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Ron DeSantis Republican	Other / Undecided
New York Times/Siena College [159]	October 22 – November 3, 2023	611 (RV)	± 4.4%	42%	43%	15%
		611 (LV)		41%	45%	14%
Vote TXT [140]	May 15–19, 2023	412 (RV)	–	36%	46%	17%
Noble Predictive Insights [142]	April 18–26, 2023	613 (RV)	± 4.0%	43%	42%	15%
Public Opinion Strategies (R) [143]	April 17–20, 2023	500 (RV)	± 4.4%	41%	44%	10%
OH Predictive Insights [144]	January 30 – February 6, 2023	800 (RV)	± 3.5%	36%	42%	22%
Emerson College [149]	July 7–10, 2022	2,000 (RV)	± 2.1%	38%	43%	19%

Gavin Newsom vs. Ron DeSantis

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [c]	Margin of error	Gavin Newsom Democratic	Ron DeSantis Republican	Other / Undecided
Susquehanna Polling & Research [146] [W]	October 24–27, 2022	500 (LV)	± 4.3%	42%	46%	12%

Gavin Newsom vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [c]	Margin of error	Gavin Newsom Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
Emerson College [84]	February 16–19, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	32%	49%	19%

Results

2024 United States presidential election in Nevada ^[160]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Donald Trump JD Vance	751,205	50.59%	2.92%
	Democratic	Kamala Harris Tim Walz	705,197	47.49%	2.57%
	None of These Candidates		19,625	1.32%	0.32%
	Libertarian	Chase Oliver Mike ter Maat	6,059	0.41%	0.64%
	Independent American	Joel Skousen [ah] Rik Combs	2,754	0.19%
Total votes			1,484,840	100.00%

By county

Swing by county:

  Democratic — +0-2.5%

  Republican — +0-2.5%

  Republican — +2.5-5%

  Republican — +5-7.5%

  Republican — +7.5-10%

  Republican — +10-12.5%

County [161]	Donald Trump Republican		Kamala Harris Democratic		Various candidates Other parties		Margin		Total votes cast
	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%
Carson City	16,873	54.31%	13,375	43.05%	820	2.64%	3,498	11.26%	31,068
Churchill	9,962	73.78%	3,179	23.54%	362	2.68%	6,783	50.24%	13,503
Clark	493,052	47.81%	520,187	50.44%	17,984	2.03%	-27,135	-2.63%	1,031,223
Douglas	23,237	65.35%	11,553	32.49%	766	2.16%	11,684	32.86%	35,556
Elko	17,352	77.24%	4,632	20.62%	481	2.14%	12,720	56.62%	22,465
Esmeralda	376	81.56%	73	15.84%	12	2.60%	303	65.72%	461
Eureka	910	87.84%	104	10.04%	22	2.12%	806	77.80%	1,036
Humboldt	6,141	76.48%	1,711	21.31%	178	2.21%	4,430	55.17%	8,030
Lander	2,180	80.00%	482	17.69%	63	2.31%	1,698	62.31%	2,725
Lincoln	2,108	85.28%	314	12.70%	50	2.02%	1,794	72.58%	2,472
Lyon	23,861	71.14%	8,954	26.70%	726	2.16%	14,907	44.44%	33,541
Mineral	1,528	66.58%	711	30.98%	56	2.44%	817	35.60%	2,295
Nye	18,946	70.18%	7,559	28.00%	492	1.82%	11,387	42.18%	26,997
Pershing	1,764	76.43%	496	21.49%	48	2.08%	1,268	54.94%	2,308
Storey	2,108	68.55%	913	29.69%	54	1.76%	1,195	38.86%	3,075
Washoe	127,443	48.32%	130,071	49.32%	6,220	2.36%	-2,628	-1.00%	263,734
White Pine	3,364	77.32%	883	20.29%	104	2.39%	2,481	57.03%	4,351
Totals	751,205	50.59%	705,197	47.49%	28,438	1.92%	46,008	3.10%	1,484,840

By congressional district

Trump won 2 of 4 congressional districts, including one that elected a Democrat. ^{[162] [ user-generated source ]}

District	Harris	Trump	Representative
1st	50.24%	47.98%	Dina Titus
2nd	41.84%	55.82%	Mark Amodei
3rd	48.80%	49.54%	Susie Lee
4th	50.47%	47.65%	Steven Horsford

Analysis

A Mountain West state, as well as a crucial swing state for the election, Trump became the first Republican presidential candidate to win the state since George W. Bush's narrow victory in 2004. It has not been won by double digits since Obama in 2008 against John McCain. Nevada has voted for the winner of every presidential election since 1980 with the exception of 2016, when it backed Hillary Clinton; and has been decided by single digits in every presidential election since 1992 with the exception of Barack Obama's 12.5% win in 2008. Obama won by less than 7% in 2012, and Trump lost by less than 2.5% in both 2016 and 2020. Today a purple state, Democratic strength in Nevada is almost entirely focused on Las Vegas and Reno, along with many of their suburbs.

Trump's win is the first time since statehood that Nevada voted for a Republican and Colorado voted for a Democrat, as well as the first time since 2000 that New Mexico and Nevada have voted for different candidates in a presidential election.

Nevada was the only state that did not vote for Trump in either of his 2016 or 2020 campaigns that voted for him in 2024. This marked the sixth election in a row Nevada voted for the winner of the national popular vote, the longest active streak among any bellwether state. Nevada was one of four states that shifted to the right during all three times that Trump ran, the other three being Arkansas, Florida, and Hawaii.

See also

• United States presidential elections in Nevada
• 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
• 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
• 2024 United States elections

Notes

1. If a candidate wins all of Nevada's delegates, the NRP chair is automatically unbound. He has pledged his support to Trump.
2. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
3. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
4. With voters who lean towards a given candidate
5. "Blank / null / won't vote" with 1%
6. "Someone else" & None of these candidates with 1% each
7. "Other" with 1%
8. "Someone else" with 2%; None of these candidates with 1%
9. "Other" with 2%
10. None of these candidates with 2%
11. "Other" with 4%
12. None of these candidates & "Someone else" with 1% each
13. None of these candidates with 2%; "Someone else" with 1%
14. "Some other candidate" with 1%
15. "Would not vote" with 2%
16. "Some other candidate" with 4%
17. "None of the above" with 4%; "Others" with 1%
18. "Someone else" with 2%
19. "Other" with 8%
20. "Another candidate" with 2%
21. "Someone else" with 1%
22. "Someone else" with 1%; None of these candidates with 1%
23. Not on the ballot.
24. Joel Skousen (C) with 0%
25. None of these candidates with 3%
26. None of these candidates with 1%
27. "Others" with 2%
28. Chase Oliver (L) with 0%
29. "Another candidate" with 10%
30. "Another candidate" with 7%
31. No Labels candidate
32. Chase Oliver (L) with 1%
33. Lars Mapstead (L) with 2%
34. Randall Terry was nominated by the national Constitution Party, though the state party nominated Joel Skousen.

Partisan clients

1. Poll sponsored by RealClearWorld
2. Poll conducted for The Times , Stanford University, Arizona State University, and Yale University
3. Poll sponsored by American Thinker
4. Poll commissioned by AARP
5. Poll sponsored by Trump's campaign
6. Poll sponsored by the Napolitan Institute
7. Poll conducted for the Article III Project
8. Poll sponsored by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation
9. Poll sponsored by American Greatness
10. Poll sponsored by TrendingPolitics
11. Poll sponsored by American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, a group that supports Republican candidates
12. Poll conducted for the Democracy Defense Project
13. Poll sponsored by NumbersUSA
14. Poll conducted for Competitiveness Coalition
15. Poll sponsored by the Senate Opportunity Fund
16. Poll sponsored by Democrats for the Next Generation PAC
17. Poll sponsored by The Heartland Institute
18. Poll sponsored by NetChoice
19. Poll sponsored by Breaking Battlegrounds
20. Poll sponsored by Citizens to Save Our Republic PAC, which opposes Trump and third party candidates
21. Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
22. Poll sponsored by The Heritage Foundation
23. Poll sponsored by BUSR
24. Poll sponsored by Capitol Resource Institute
25. Poll sponsored by Breaking Battlegrounds
26. Poll sponsored by Building America's Future, which supports Republican candidates
27. Poll commissioned by League of American Workers

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