2024 United States presidential election in Missouri

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2024 United States presidential election in Missouri
Flag of Missouri.svg
←  2020 November 5, 20242028 →
  TrumpPortrait (cropped).jpg Kamala Harris Vice Presidential Portrait (cropped).jpg
Nominee Donald Trump Kamala Harris
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida California
Running mate JD Vance Tim Walz
Electoral vote100
Popular vote1,751,9861,200,599
Percentage58.49%40.08%
Missouri Presidential Election Results 2024.svg
2024 Missouri Presidential Election by Congressional District.svg
President before election

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

The 2024 United States presidential election in Missouri took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Missouri voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Missouri has 10 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat. [1]

Contents

Prior to the election, all major news organizations considered Missouri a state Trump would win, or a red state. [2] Formerly a bellwether state, Missouri has trended towards the Republican Party in recent years and since the late 2010s has been considered a GOP stronghold at both the federal and state levels.

As he did in the previous two presidential elections, Republican Donald Trump easily won Missouri in 2024, this time by an 18.4% margin.

Primary elections

Republican caucuses

The Missouri Republican caucuses was held on March 2, 2024, alongside the Republican caucuses in Idaho and Michigan.

Missouri Republican caucus, March 2, 2024 [3] [4]
CandidateState delegatesPercentageActual delegate count
BoundUnboundTotal
Donald Trump 924100.0054054
Nikki Haley 00.00000
David Stuckenberg00.00000
Total:92410054054

Democratic primary

The Missouri Democratic primary was held on March 23, 2024, alongside the Democratic primary in Louisiana.

Missouri Democratic primary, March 22, 2024 [5]
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
PledgedUnpledgedTotal
Joe Biden (incumbent)16,29585.3%61
Uncommitted 2,22911.7%3
Marianne Williamson 2981.6%
Dean Phillips (withdrawn)1780.9%
Stephen Lyons (withdrawn)400.2%
Jason Palmer 360.2%
Armando Perez-Serrato240.1%
Total:19,100100.0%64670

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Cook Political Report [6] Solid RDecember 19, 2023
Inside Elections [7] Solid RApril 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball [8] Safe RJune 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill [9] Safe RDecember 14, 2023
CNalysis [10] Solid RDecember 30, 2023
CNN [11] Solid RJanuary 14, 2024
The Economist [12] Safe RJune 12, 2024
538 [13] Solid ROctober 18, 2024
RCP [14] Likely RJune 26, 2024
NBC News [15] Safe ROctober 6, 2024

Polling

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump
Republican		Kamala
Harris
Democratic		Other /
Undecided
Research Co. [16] November 2–3, 2024450 (LV)± 4.6%54%39%7%
ActiVote [17] October 6–27, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%58%42%–
ActiVote [18] September 8 – October 10, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%57%43%–
Emerson College [19] September 12–13, 2024850 (LV)± 3.3%53%43%4% [b]
55% [c] 43%2% [b]
Change Research (D) [20] September 11–13, 20241,237 (RV)± 3.1%50%41%9%
GQR (D) [21] September 6–12, 2024645 (LV)± 3.9%55%44%1%
August 23, 2024 Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump.
August 19–22, 2024 Democratic National Convention
ActiVote [22] July 25 – August 22, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%59%41%–
YouGov/Saint Louis University [23] August 8–16, 2024900 (LV)± 3.8%54%41%5% [d]

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump
Republican		Kamala
Harris
Democratic		Cornel
West
Independent		Jill
Stein
Green		Chase
Oliver
Libertarian		Other /
Undecided
Remington Research Group (R)/Missouri Scout [24] October 28–29, 2024721 (LV)± 3.6%54%40%–1%1%4%
Hypothetical polling with Donald Trump and Joe Biden

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump
Republican		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Other /
Undecided
Emerson College [25] June 17–19, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%53%40%7%
John Zogby Strategies [26] [A] April 13–21, 2024509 (LV)–49%43%8%
Emerson College [27] January 23–28, 20241,830 (RV)± 2.2%49%32%19%
Remington Research Group (R)/Missouri Scout [28] October 10–11, 2023806 (RV)± 3.6%52%39%9%
SurveyUSA [29] October 27 – November 1, 2022991 (RV)± 3.7%52%34%14%
Emerson College [30] October 26–28, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%53%37%9%
Emerson College [31] September 23–27, 20221,160 (LV)± 2.8%51%37%12%
SurveyUSA [32] September 14–18, 2022830 (RV)± 3.9%52%35%13%
SurveyUSA [33] July 24–27, 20221,981 (RV)± 2.7%51%35%14%
SurveyUSA [34] May 11–15, 20221,412 (LV)± 3.2%50%35%15%
Remington Research Group (R)/Missouri Scout [35] September 18–20, 20211,014 (LV)± 2.9%55%36%9%
Remington Research Group (R)/Missouri Scout [36] April 21–22, 2021933 (LV)± 3.0%53%38%9%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump
Republican		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent		Cornel
West
Independent		Jill
Stein
Green		Other /
Undecided
Emerson College [25] June 17–19, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%50%35%7%1%1%6%
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump
Republican		Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Independent		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies [26] [A] April 13–21, 2024509 (LV)–45%42%13%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Independent		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies [26] [A] April 13–21, 2024509 (LV)–51%36%13%

Results

2024 United States presidential election in Missouri [37]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican
1,751,986 58.49 +1.69
Democratic
1,200,59940.08−1.33
Libertarian
23,8760.80−0.56
Green
17,1350.57+0.44
Write-in 1,7310.06-0.23
Total votes2,995,327 100.00 N/A

By county

CountyDonald Trump
Republican		Kamala Harris
Democratic		Various candidates
Other parties		MarginTotal
#%#%#%#%
Adair 6,77165.80%3,33432.40%1861.80%3,43733.40%10,291
Andrew 7,40775.22%2,31223.48%1281.30%5,09551.74%9,847
Atchison 2,15279.32%52919.50%321.18%1,62359.82%2,713
Audrain 7,69973.16%2,68825.54%1361.30%5,01147.62%10,523
Barry 13,13881.27%2,87317.77%1540.96%10,26563.50%16,165
Barton 5,15985.77%82013.63%360.60%4,33972.14%6,015
Bates 6,70280.17%1,56318.70%951.13%5,13961.47%8,360
Benton 8,52679.17%2,16620.11%770.72%6,36059.06%10,769
Bollinger 5,36587.08%75612.27%400.65%4,60974.81%6,161
Boone 39,67343.90%48,45253.61%2,2502.49%-8,779-9.71%90,375
Buchanan 22,60662.96%12,59835.09%7011.95%10,00827.87%35,905
Butler 14,54981.16%3,16017.63%2171.21%11,38963.53%17,926
Caldwell 3,77180.18%88818.88%440.94%2,88361.30%4,703
Callaway 15,20670.87%5,92627.62%3231.51%9,28043.25%21,455
Camden 19,59776.49%5,72422.34%3011.17%13,87354.15%25,622
Cape Girardeau 29,31572.32%10,56126.05%6611.63%18,75446.27%40,537
Carroll 3,70881.76%78917.40%380.84%2,91964.36%4,535
Carter 2,48886.93%36412.72%100.35%2,12474.21%2,862
Cass 38,79265.36%19,75333.28%8041.36%19,03932.08%59,349
Cedar 6,06484.36%1,06014.75%640.89%5,00469.61%7,188
Chariton 3,17977.75%87521.40%350.85%2,30456.35%4,089
Christian 38,37975.57%11,85023.33%5601.10%26,52952.24%50,789
Clark 2,67980.38%62818.84%260.78%2,05161.54%3,333
Clay 67,68851.75%60,34546.14%2,7562.11%7,3435.61%130,789
Clinton 8,23573.09%2,85525.34%1771.57%5,38047.75%11,267
Cole 26,68666.46%12,87432.06%5921.48%13,81234.40%40,152
Cooper 6,39372.10%2,34726.47%1271.43%4,04645.63%8,867
Crawford 8,74280.56%2,00718.49%1030.95%6,73562.07%10,852
Dade 3,48083.13%67116.03%350.84%2,80967.10%4,186
Dallas 6,90781.83%1,45817.27%760.90%5,44964.56%8,441
Daviess 3,18581.15%70117.86%390.99%2,48463.29%3,925
DeKalb 3,88580.70%87018.07%591.23%3,01562.63%4,814
Dent 6,01384.65%1,02514.43%650.92%4,98870.22%7,103
Douglas 6,24285.64%99613.66%510.70%5,24671.98%7,289
Dunklin 8,09680.55%1,88518.75%700.70%6,21161.80%10,051
Franklin 40,12672.04%14,69426.38%8791.58%25,43245.66%55,699
Gasconade 6,37079.65%1,55519.44%720.91%4,81560.21%7,997
Gentry 2,65180.53%61618.71%250.76%2,03561.82%3,292
Greene 85,95659.33%55,97138.63%2,9492.04%29,98520.70%144,876
Grundy 3,58281.34%78417.80%380.86%2,79863.54%4,404
Harrison 3,29385.64%53413.89%180.47%2,75971.75%3,845
Henry 8,28675.80%2,53523.19%1111.01%5,75152.61%10,932
Hickory 4,10880.23%97819.10%340.67%3,13061.13%5,120
Holt 1,98284.13%35715.15%170.72%1,62568.98%2,356
Howard 3,53471.18%1,34127.01%901.81%2,19344.17%4,965
Howell 15,73382.71%3,07316.16%2151.13%12,66066.55%19,021
Iron 3,64480.66%82418.24%501.10%2,82062.42%4,518
Jackson 125,61039.29%187,02658.50%7,0922.21%-61,416-19.21%319,728
Jasper 39,08472.32%13,94325.80%1,0141.88%25,14146.52%54,041
Jefferson 80,79667.42%36,96530.85%2,0721.73%43,83136.57%119,833
Johnson 16,29868.80%6,96029.38%4301.82%9,33839.42%23,688
Knox 1,47981.71%31117.18%201.11%1,16864.53%1,810
Laclede 14,15582.59%2,75616.08%2281.33%11,39966.51%17,139
Lafayette 12,72073.75%4,29424.90%2341.35%8,42648.85%17,248
Lawrence 15,00181.12%3,24817.56%2431.32%11,75363.56%18,492
Lewis 3,56579.47%87219.44%491.09%2,69360.03%4,486
Lincoln 24,86677.38%6,90821.50%3591.12%17,95855.88%32,133
Linn 4,43778.02%1,18320.80%671.18%3,25457.22%5,687
Livingston 5,39578.50%1,42220.69%560.81%3,97357.81%6,873
Macon 6,30080.37%1,48118.89%580.74%4,81961.48%7,839
Madison 4,72182.06%98617.14%460.80%3,73564.92%5,753
Maries 3,98783.31%75515.78%440.91%3,23267.53%4,786
Marion 9,99175.96%3,03223.05%1300.99%6,95952.91%13,153
McDonald 7,84383.76%1,42315.20%981.04%6,42068.56%9,364
Mercer 1,54586.22%23513.11%120.67%1,31073.11%1,792
Miller 10,82683.21%2,06715.89%1180.90%8,75967.32%13,011
Mississippi 3,40476.51%1,01522.81%300.68%2,38953.70%4,449
Moniteau 5,87780.78%1,31318.05%851.17%4,56462.73%7,275
Monroe 3,47679.40%85719.58%451.02%2,61959.82%4,378
Montgomery 4,77679.63%1,17019.51%520.86%3,60660.12%5,998
Morgan 7,72579.35%1,91419.66%960.99%5,81159.69%9,735
New Madrid 5,20376.39%1,56122.92%470.69%3,64253.47%6,811
Newton 22,92378.50%5,86720.09%4101.41%17,05658.41%29,200
Nodaway 6,90971.08%2,67427.51%1371.41%4,23543.57%9,720
Oregon 3,88484.20%69615.09%330.71%3,18869.11%4,613
Osage 6,65785.95%1,00913.03%791.02%5,64872.92%7,745
Ozark 4,04484.60%69814.60%380.80%3,34670.00%4,780
Pemiscot 3,91774.21%1,33125.22%300.57%2,58648.99%5,278
Perry 7,98681.13%1,75717.85%1011.02%6,22963.28%9,844
Pettis 13,90773.45%4,70324.84%3251.71%9,20448.61%18,935
Phelps 13,65870.46%5,37927.75%3481.79%8,27942.71%19,385
Pike 6,15178.33%1,61820.60%841.07%4,53357.73%7,853
Platte 29,38150.49%27,56647.37%1,2422.14%1,8153.12%58,189
Polk 12,69179.78%2,94818.53%2691.69%9,74361.25%15,908
Pulaski 11,57974.21%3,76524.13%2601.66%7,81450.08%15,604
Putnam 2,02184.92%34714.58%120.50%1,67470.34%2,380
Ralls 4,57579.19%1,15419.98%480.83%3,42159.21%5,777
Randolph 8,32275.46%2,57123.31%1351.23%5,75152.15%11,028
Ray 8,60273.53%2,92725.02%1701.45%5,67548.51%11,699
Reynolds 2,56083.69%47215.43%270.88%2,08868.26%3,059
Ripley 5,00286.18%76313.15%390.67%4,23973.03%5,804
Saline 6,49869.65%2,72629.22%1061.13%3,77240.43%9,330
Schuyler 1,58881.65%33417.17%231.18%1,25464.48%1,945
Scotland 1,53780.05%35818.65%251.30%1,17961.40%1,920
Scott 13,78678.87%3,52520.17%1690.96%10,26158.70%17,480
Shannon 3,36483.72%62515.56%290.72%2,73968.16%4,018
Shelby 2,69182.50%55016.86%210.64%2,14165.64%3,262
St. Charles 130,58857.42%92,22640.56%4,5942.02%38,36216.86%227,408
St. Clair 3,98279.61%95919.17%611.22%3,02360.44%5,002
St. Francois 21,52174.99%6,81123.73%3661.28%14,71051.26%28,698
St. Louis 187,98237.39%305,63560.79%9,1211.82%-117,653-23.40%502,738
St. Louis City 19,34216.53%94,45880.75%3,1792.72%-75,116-64.22%116,979
Ste. Genevieve 7,03171.72%2,62926.82%1431.46%4,40244.90%9,803
Stoddard 11,78386.42%1,73612.73%1150.85%10,04773.69%13,634
Stone 15,35780.07%3,62018.87%2021.06%11,73761.20%19,179
Sullivan 2,03582.62%40816.57%200.81%1,62766.05%2,463
Taney 21,23679.17%5,32919.87%2590.96%15,90759.30%26,824
Texas 9,85585.51%1,58913.79%810.70%8,26671.72%11,525
Vernon 7,11279.01%1,77419.71%1151.28%5,33859.30%9,001
Warren 14,91573.96%4,97024.65%2811.39%9,94549.31%20,166
Washington 8,42482.03%1,74717.01%990.96%6,67765.02%10,270
Wayne 5,03086.03%78313.39%340.58%4,24772.64%5,847
Webster 15,98480.67%3,65318.44%1770.89%12,33162.23%19,814
Worth 90481.81%19017.19%111.00%71464.62%1,105
Wright 7,85087.42%1,05711.77%730.81%6,79375.65%8,980
Totals1,751,98658.32%1,200,59939.97%51,3821.71%551,38718.35%3,003,967
2024 Presidential Missouri County Swings.svg

By congressional district

Trump won six of eight congressional districts. [38] [ user-generated source ]

DistrictTrumpHarrisRepresentative
1st 20.53%77.65% Cori Bush (118th Congress)
Wesley Bell (119th Congress)
2nd 53.10%45.19% Ann Wagner
3rd 62.66%35.88% Blaine Luetkemeyer (118th Congress)
Bob Onder (119th Congress)
4th 70.51%28.21% Mark Alford
5th 37.53%60.69% Emanuel Cleaver
6th 68.83%29.97% Sam Graves
7th 70.68%28.09% Eric Burlison
8th 76.50%22.52% Jason Smith

Analysis

Missouri is a Midwestern state with heavy Southern cultural influence, having been a Southern border state and contested between the Union and Confederacy during the Civil War. A nigh-infallible bellwether state for the bulk of the 20th century well into the 2000s (backing the winner of all but one presidential election for a century, from 1904 to 2004, the exception being 1956 by just 0.22% and less than 4,000 votes), Missouri has voted Republican in every presidential election since 2000. It is widely understood to have lost its bellwether status when Democrat Barack Obama of neighboring Illinois failed to carry the state in either of his presidential victories, followed by Republican Donald Trump carrying it by more than 15% in all three of his election bids.

As half the state is located in the conservative Bible Belt, with the southern portion of the state being part of the Upland South, Missouri has drifted away from being a political bellwether towards the Republican Party in the 21st century and is now a strongly red state, with Republicans occupying every statewide office since 2023. Democratic strength in Missouri is nowadays largely limited to the Kansas City and St. Louis areas, as well as the college town of Columbia.

Democrat Kamala Harris won the same jurisdictions that Joe Biden did in 2020, as did Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Obama in 2012: Jackson County, home to Kansas City; Boone County, home to Columbia; the independent city of St. Louis; and St. Louis County, which contains many of St. Louis's closest suburbs.

See also

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. 1 2 "Someone else" with 1%
  3. ↑ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  4. ↑ "Other" with 3%

Partisan clients

  1. 1 2 3 Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">2024 United States presidential election in New Mexico</span>

The 2024 United States presidential election in New Mexico took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. New Mexico voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of New Mexico has five electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2024 United States presidential election in New York</span>

The 2024 United States presidential election in New York was held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. New York voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of New York had 28 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state lost a seat.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2024 United States presidential election in Ohio</span>

The 2024 United States presidential election in Ohio was held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Ohio voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. Ohio had 17 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state lost a seat.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2024 United States presidential election in Oklahoma</span>

The 2024 United States presidential election in Oklahoma took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Oklahoma voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Oklahoma has seven electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2024 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania</span>

The 2024 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Pennsylvania voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Pennsylvania has 19 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state lost a seat.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2024 United States presidential election in South Carolina</span>

The 2024 United States presidential election in South Carolina took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. South Carolina voters choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of South Carolina has nine electoral votes in the Electoral College.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2024 United States presidential election in South Dakota</span>

The 2024 United States presidential election in South Dakota took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. South Dakota voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of South Dakota has three electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2024 United States presidential election in Texas</span>

The 2024 United States presidential election in Texas was held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Texas voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Texas had 40 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state gained two seats.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2024 United States presidential election in Wisconsin</span>

The 2024 United States presidential election in Wisconsin took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Wisconsin voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Wisconsin awarded ten electoral votes in the Electoral College.

References

  1. ↑ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
  2. ↑ "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved December 18, 2023.
  3. ↑ "AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Missouri's GOP caucuses". ABC News. Retrieved March 2, 2024.[ failed verification ]
  4. ↑ "Missouri primary results". Associated Press . Retrieved March 2, 2024.
  5. ↑ "Missouri Presidential Primary". The AP. Retrieved March 22, 2024.
  6. ↑ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  7. ↑ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  8. ↑ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  9. ↑ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  10. ↑ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  11. ↑ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN . Retrieved January 14, 2024.
  12. ↑ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist . Retrieved June 12, 2024.
  13. ↑ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved October 19, 2024.
  14. ↑ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
  15. ↑ "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.
  16. ↑ Canseco, Mario (November 4, 2024). "Battleground States Remain Closely Contested in U.S. Race". Research Co.
  17. ↑ Allis, Victor (October 28, 2024). "Trump Leads in Missouri". ActiVote. Retrieved October 28, 2024.
  18. ↑ Allis, Victor (October 11, 2024). "Trump Leads in Missouri". ActiVote.
  19. ↑ "Missouri September 2024 Poll: Republican Candidates Lead in President, Governor, Senate Races". Emerson College Polling. September 17, 2024.
  20. ↑ Clermont, Stephen (September 17, 2024). "Missouri Memo - September 17, 2024" (PDF). Change Research.
  21. ↑ Lemon, Jason (September 13, 2024). "Lucas Kunce Within Striking Distance of Josh Hawley—Internal Poll". Newsweek .
  22. ↑ Allis, Victor (August 22, 2024). "Trump Leads with Expected Margin in Missouri". ActiVote. Retrieved August 23, 2024.
  23. ↑ Rogers, Steven; Burle, Ashley; Ritter, Gary; Warren, Kenneth (August 29, 2024). "Top Line Results for August 2024 SLU/YouGov Poll" (PDF). Saint Louis University.
  24. ↑ "MOScout Weekender: Trump up 14 in MO - Hallway Picks Their Upset Guesses - Who Won the Week and more..." Missouri Scout. November 2, 2024.
  25. 1 2 Mumford, Camille (June 21, 2024). "Missouri 2024 Poll: Ashcroft 23%, Kehoe 20% Lead Republican Primary for Governor; 46% undecided". Emerson Polling.
  26. 1 2 3 "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
  27. ↑ Mumford, Camille (February 2, 2024). "Colorado, Missouri, Ohio, and South Dakota 2024 Polls: Biden Underperforming Among Women and Young Voters". Emerson Polling.
  28. ↑ "October 2023 - Missouri Statewide" (PDF). Missouri Scout. October 12, 2023.
  29. ↑ "Results of SurveyUSA News Poll #26640". SurveyUSA. November 2, 2022.
  30. ↑ Mumford, Camille (November 1, 2022). "Missouri 2022: Republican Eric Schmitt Maintains Double Digit Lead Over Democrat Trudy Busch Valentine". Emerson Polling.
  31. ↑ Mumford, Camille (September 29, 2022). "Missouri 2022: Republican Eric Schmitt With Double Digit Lead Over Democrat Trudy Busch Valentine". Emerson Polling.
  32. ↑ "Show Me Deja Vu All Over Again (Again) As Trump/Biden Do-Over Sees Same Result In Missouri – Largely Unchanged Since May". SurveyUSA. September 19, 2022.
  33. ↑ "Show Me Deja Vu All Over Again As Trump/Biden Do-Over Sees Same Result In Missouri – Unchanged, as are Approval Ratings, Since May". SurveyUSA. July 28, 2022.
  34. ↑ Usery, Stephanie; Ruch, Amber (May 20, 2022). "Exclusive poll shows who Missourians would vote for in 2024 Trump vs. Biden rematch". First Alert 4 .
  35. ↑ "MISSOURI 2022 General Election - September 2021" (PDF). Missouri Scout. September 20, 2021.
  36. ↑ "April 2021 - Missouri 2022 General Election Survey" (PDF). Missouri Scout. April 22, 2021.
  37. ↑ General Election, November 05, 2024, Official Results, Missouri Secretary of State, December 5, 2024.
  38. ↑ "2024 Pres by CD".
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