2018 United States Senate election in Missouri

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2018 United States Senate election in Missouri
Flag of Missouri.svg
←  2012 November 6, 2018 2024  →
Turnout58.2% Decrease2.svg [1]
  Josh Hawley, official portrait, 116th congress (cropped).jpg Claire McCaskill, 113th official photo (cropped 2).jpg
Nominee Josh Hawley Claire McCaskill
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote1,254,9271,112,935
Percentage51.4%45.6%
2018 United States Senate election in Missouri results map by county.svg
MO SENATE 2018 CD.svg
2018 US Senate election in MO by precinct.svg
Hawley:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
McCaskill:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:     40–50%     50%     No votes
U.S. senator before election

Claire McCaskill
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Josh Hawley
Republican

The 2018 United States Senate election in Missouri took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Missouri, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections, including Missouri's quadrennial State Auditor election.

Contents

This was one of ten Democratic-held Senate seats up for election in a state Donald Trump won in the 2016 presidential election. Incumbent Democratic Senator Claire McCaskill ran for re-election to a third term. McCaskill easily won her party's nomination, defeating several minor candidates in the primary, while Missouri Attorney General Josh Hawley comfortably won the Republican primary. [2]

The candidate filing deadline was March 27, 2018, and the primary election was held on August 7, 2018. [3] Pollsters predicted a tight race, however Hawley defeated McCaskill on election day by 5.8%, taking 51.4% of the vote to McCaskill's 45.6%, a somewhat larger margin than expected. This resulted in Republicans holding both Senate seats in Missouri for the first time since McCaskill took office in 2007. Hawley was also the youngest incumbent senator at that time and continued to be until the inauguration of Jon Ossoff in 2021. [4]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

  • Angelica Earl, former insurance verification specialist [7]
  • David Faust [8]
  • Travis Gonzalez, perennial candidate [8]
  • John Hogan, perennial candidate [8]
  • Leonard Steinman, perennial candidate [8]
  • Carla (Coffee) Wright

Endorsements

Claire McCaskill

U.S. President

U.S. Senators

State officials

Results

Results by county: .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} McCaskill 80-90% 70-80% 60-70% 50-60% 2018 MO US Senate Democratic primary.svg
Results by county:
  McCaskill
  •   80–90%
  •   70–80%
  •   60–70%
  •   50–60%
Democratic primary results [17]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Claire McCaskill (incumbent) 501,872 82.60%
Democratic Carla Wright41,1266.77%
Democratic John Hogan15,9842.63%
Democratic David Faust15,9582.63%
Democratic Angelica Earl15,5002.55%
Democratic Travis Gonzalez9,4801.56%
Democratic Leonard Steinman7,6571.26%
Total votes607,577 100.00%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Josh Hawley

U.S. Presidents

U.S. Vice President

U.S. Executive Branch official

United States Senators

U.S. Representatives

State officials

Cabinet-level officials

Organizations

Austin Petersen

Individuals

Organizations

Courtland Sykes

State judges

  • Roy Moore, former Chief Justice of the Alabama Supreme Court [52]

Debates

Host
network		DateLink(s)Participants
Josh
Hawley		Austin
Petersen		Courtland
Sykes		Tony
Monetti		Peter
Pfeifer		Kirsti
Nichols
America First MissouriMay 11, 2018 [53] AbsentPresentPresentPresentPresentPresent

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Josh
Hawley		Austin
Petersen		Courtland
Sykes		OtherUndecided
Emerson College [54] April 26–29, 2018283± 6.0%37%8%6%5%45%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Josh
Hawley		David
Steelman		Ann
Wagner		David
Wasinger		Undecided
Remington Research Group [55] April 28–29, 2017915± 3.1%30%7%14%2%47%
37%–16%–47%

Results

Results by county: Hawley 60-70% 50-60% 40-50% Monetti 40-50% 2018 MO US Senate Republican primary.svg
Results by county:
  Hawley
  •   60–70%
  •   50–60%
  •   40–50%
  Monetti
  •   40–50%
Republican primary results [17]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Josh Hawley 389,878 58.64%
Republican Tony Monetti64,8349.75%
Republican Austin Petersen 54,9168.26%
Republican Kristi Nichols49,6407.47%
Republican Christina Smith35,0245.27%
Republican Ken Patterson19,5792.95%
Republican Peter Pfeifer16,5942.50%
Republican Courtland Sykes13,8702.09%
Republican Fred Ryman8,7811.32%
Republican Brian Hagg6,8711.03%
Republican Bradley Krembs4,9020.74%
Total votes664,889 100.00%

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Nominated

  • Japheth Campbell, entrepreneur [56]

Withdrew

Declined

Results

Results by county: Campbell 100% No votes No votes 2018 MO US Senate Libertarian primary.svg
Results by county:
Campbell
  •   100%
No votes
  •   No votes
Libertarian primary results [17]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Libertarian Japheth Campbell 5,380 100.00%
Total votes5,380 100.00%

Green primary

Candidates

Nominated

  • Jo Crain

Eliminated in primary

  • Jerome Bauer

Results

Results by county: Crain 100% 80-90% 70-80% 60-70% 50-60% Crain/Bauer tie 50% Bauer 50-60% 60-70% 70-80% 80-90% 100% No votes No votes 2018 MO US Senate Green primary.svg
Results by county:
  Crain
  •   100%
  •   80–90%
  •   70–80%
  •   60–70%
  •   50–60%
  Crain/Bauer tie
  •   50%
  Bauer
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   100%
No votes
  •   No votes
Green primary results [17]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Green Jo Crain 906 57.67%
Green Jerome Bauer66542.33%
Total votes1,571 100.00%

Independents

Candidates

Declared

  • Craig O'Dear, attorney [60]

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [61] TossupOctober 26, 2018
Inside Elections [62] Tilt R (flip)November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball [63] Lean R (flip)November 5, 2018
CNN [64] TossupNovember 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics [65] TossupNovember 5, 2018
Daily Kos [66] TossupNovember 5, 2018
Fox News [67] TossupNovember 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight [68] TossupNovember 5, 2018

Debates

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018
CandidateTotal receiptsTotal disbursementsCash on hand
Claire McCaskill (D)$35,361,401$33,594,412$1,789,381
Josh Hawley (R)$10,221,143$7,376,209$2,844,933
Source: Federal Election Commission [69]

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Claire
McCaskill
(D)		Josh
Hawley
(R)		Japheth
Campbell
(L)		Craig
O'Dear
(I)		Jo
Crain
(G)		OtherUndecided
HarrisX [70] November 3–5, 2018600± 4.0%45%46%–––––
HarrisX [71] November 2–4, 2018600± 4.0%44%47%–––––
Trafalgar Group (R) [72] October 29 – November 4, 20181,791± 2.3%44%48%–––4%3%
Emerson College [73] November 1–3, 2018732± 3.8%46%49%–––3%3%
HarrisX [74] November 1–3, 2018600± 4.0%46%46%–––––
Missouri Scout/Remington (R) [75] November 1–2, 20181,424± 2.6%47%47%1%1%1%–3%
HarrisX [76] October 31 – November 2, 2018600± 4.0%45%46%–––––
NBC News/Marist [77] October 30 – November 1, 2018600 LV± 5.2%47%44%3%–2%<1%4%
50%47%–––<1%3%
920 RV± 4.1%46%43%3%–2%1%6%
50%46%–––1%4%
HarrisX [78] October 30 – November 1, 2018600± 4.0%46%43%–––––
HarrisX [79] October 29–31, 2018600± 4.0%45%43%–––––
HarrisX [80] October 24–30, 20181,400± 2.6%46%44%–––––
Fox News [81] October 27–30, 2018741 LV± 3.5%43%43%0%3%1%0%9%
45%45%–––2%8%
851 RV± 3.0%41%42%1%3%2%1%10%
43%44%–––3%9%
Cygnal (R) [82] October 26–27, 2018501± 4.4%46%49%–––1%3%
Missouri Scout/Remington (R) [83] October 24–25, 20181,376± 2.6%45%49%1%1%1%–3%
Missouri Scout/Remington (R) [84] October 17–18, 20181,215± 2.7%46%47%2%1%1%–2%
OnMessage Inc. (R-Hawley) [85] October 16–18, 2018800± 3.5%42%49%–––4%5%
The Polling Company (R-Citizens United) [86] October 11–13, 2018600± 4.0%47%50%–––0%3%
Ipsos [87] September 27 – October 7, 20181,111± 3.0%44%45%1%2%0%2%6%
1st Tuesday Campaigns [88] October 5–6, 20181,052± 3.0%42%44%1%1%1%–11%
Fox News [89] September 29 – October 2, 2018683 LV± 3.5%43%43%2%4%1%1%6%
46%46%–––3%5%
805 RV± 3.5%41%41%2%4%2%1%9%
44%44%–––3%8%
McLaughlin (R-Missouri Rising Action) [90] September 29 – October 2, 2018600± 4.0%44%52%–––––
Vox Populi Polling [91] September 29 – October 1, 2018869± 3.3%49%51%–––––
CNN/SSRS [92] September 25–29, 2018756 LV± 4.3%47%44%3%–1%0%4%
906 RV± 3.9%43%42%4%–2%0%6%
Missouri Scout/Remington (R) [93] September 26–27, 20181,555± 2.5%46%48%––––6%
YouGov [94] September 10–14, 2018917–45%45%–––4%6%
Trafalgar Group (R) [95] September 11–13, 20181,724± 2.4%44%47%––––8%
Fox News [96] September 8–11, 2018675 LV± 3.5%44%41%1%3%1%1%8%
45%45%–––3%7%
808 RV± 3.5%41%39%1%4%1%1%11%
42%43%–––3%10%
NBC News/Marist [97] August 25–28, 2018568 LV± 4.8%44%40%5%–3%<1%8%
47%47%–––1%5%
774 RV± 4.2%43%39%6%–3%<1%8%
46%47%–––1%5%
WPA Intelligence (R-Club For Growth) [98] August 12–14, 2018501± 4.4%41%48%–––3%8%
Missouri Scout/Remington (R) [99] August 8–9, 20181,785± 2.3%47%47%––––6%
WPA Intelligence (R-Club For Growth) [98] July 10–12, 2018602± 4.0%42%43%–––4%11%
The Missouri Times/Remington (R) [100] July 7–8, 20181,034± 3.2%46%48%––––6%
SurveyMonkey/Axios [101] June 11 – July 2, 20181,038± 5.0%49%47%––––4%
McLaughlin (R-Missouri Rising Action) [90] June 2018––46%42%–––––
Global Strategy Group (D-SMP) [102] June 11–13, 2018804± 3.5%47%41%–––––
Gravis Marketing (R-Petersen) [103] May 16, 2018822± 3.4%43%50%––––7%
Missouri Scout/TJP Strategies (D) [104] May 9–10, 2018898± 3.3%48%44%––––8%
Emerson College [54] April 26–29, 2018600± 4.2%45%45%––––11%
Missouri Scout/TJP Strategies (D) [105] April 19–20, 20181,542± 2.5%48%44%––––8%
OnMessage Inc. (R-Hawley) [106] April 16–18, 2018600± 4.0%46%47%––––7%
Global Strategy Group (D-SMP) [102] April 9–12, 2018––46%44%–––––
Mason-Dixon [107] April 4–6, 2018625± 4.0%45%44%––––11%
Gravis Marketing [108] March 5–7, 2018931± 3.2%42%40%––––18%
SurveyMonkey/Axios [109] February 12 – March 5, 20181,938± 3.6%44%52%––––4%
Public Policy Polling (D-TMI) [110] January 8–9, 2018965± 3.2%45%44%––––11%
Missouri Scout/Remington (R) [111] January 3–4, 20181,122± 2.9%45%49%––––6%
Missouri Scout/Remington (R) [112] October 11–12, 2017965± 3.1%45%48%––––7%
Missouri Scout/Remington (R) [113] August 16–18, 2017922± 3.0%45%50%––––5%
Fabrizio Lee (R) [114] July 10–11, 2017500± 4.4%42%46%––––12%
Missouri Scout/Remington (R) [115] July 7–8, 2017928± 3.2%44%50%––––6%
Hypothetical polling

with Austin Petersen

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Claire
McCaskill (D)		Austin
Petersen (R)		Undecided
Gravis Marketing (R-Petersen) [103] May 16, 2018822± 3.4%40%56%4%

with generic Republican

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Claire
McCaskill (D)		Generic
Republican		Undecided
Fabrizio Lee (R) [114] July 10–11, 2017500± 4.4%38%54%8%

with Vicky Hartzler

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Claire
McCaskill (D)		Vicky
Hartzler (R)		Undecided
Missouri Scout/Remington (R) [115] July 7–8, 2017928± 3.2%44%48%8%

with Blaine Luetkemeyer

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Claire
McCaskill (D)		Blaine
Luetkemeyer (R)		Undecided
Missouri Scout/Remington (R) [115] July 7–8, 2017928± 3.2%43%50%7%

with Todd Richardson

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Claire
McCaskill (D)		Todd
Richardson (R)		Undecided
Missouri Scout/Remington (R) [115] July 7–8, 2017928± 3.2%43%48%9%

with Eric Schmitt

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Claire
McCaskill (D)		Eric
Schmitt (R)		Undecided
Missouri Scout/Remington (R) [115] July 7–8, 2017928± 3.2%45%49%6%

with Jason Smith

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Claire
McCaskill (D)		Jason
Smith (R)		Undecided
Missouri Scout/Remington (R) [115] June 7–8, 2017928± 3.2%45%48%7%

Results

State Senate districts results Mo 2018 state senate.svg
State Senate districts results
State House districts results MO STATE HOUSE SENATE 2018.svg
State House districts results

Sen. McCaskill conceded a few hours after the polls closed on Election Day. Despite performing strongly in the St. Louis suburbs, she ran well behind her 2012 vote in Southeast Missouri, especially in the Lead Belt and the Missouri Bootheel. She also ran poorly in the northern part of the state. [116]

United States Senate election in Missouri, 2018 [117]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Josh Hawley 1,254,927 51.38% +12.27
Democratic Claire McCaskill (incumbent)1,112,93545.57%−9.24
Independent Craig O'Dear34,3981.41%N/A
Libertarian Japheth Campbell27,3161.12%−4.95
Green Jo Crain12,7060.52%N/A
Write-in 7<0.01%N/A
Total votes2,442,289 100.00% N/A
Republican gain from Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Hawley won 5 of 8 congressional districts, with the remaining 3 going to McCaskill, including one that elected a Republican. [118]

DistrictMcCaskillHawleyRepresentative
1st 82%16% Lacy Clay
2nd 50%48% Ann Wagner
3rd 38%59% Blaine Luetkemeyer
4th 36%60% Vicky Hartzler
5th 61%36% Emanuel Cleaver
6th 39%58% Sam Graves
7th 31%65% Billy Long
8th 28%69% Jason Smith

Voter demographics

Edison Research exit poll
Demographic subgroupMcCaskillHawley % of
Voters
Gender
Men425749
Women514751
Age
18–24 years old55426
25–29 years old57427
30–39 years old524515
40–49 years old445416
50–64 years old435631
65 and older455425
Race
White 425784
Black 9188
Latino 53444
Race by gender
White men376241
White women465243
Black men9174
Black women9095
Education
High school or less346422
Some college education485127
Associate degree 465314
Bachelor's degree 514822
Advanced degree584115
Party ID
Democrats 93631
Republicans 79237
Independents 465132
Ideology
Liberals 90923
Moderates 603738
Conservatives 89139
Marital status
Married435563
Unmarried574137
Gender by marital status
Married men396134
Married women494928
Unmarried men475011
Unmarried women643321
First-time midterm election voter
Yes593813
No445687
Most important issue facing the country
Immigration138620
Healthcare 712747
Gun policy 52478
Economy336523
Area type
Urban673235
Suburban425737
Rural277128
Source: CNN [119]

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References

  1. ↑ 2018 Voter Turnout Report (PDF), Missouri Secretary of State, December 7, 2018
  2. ↑ Wise, Lindsay (October 17, 2017). "GOP's top Senate recruit in Missouri won't commit to voting for McConnell as leader". McClatchy. Retrieved July 29, 2018.
  3. ↑ "United States Senate election in Missouri, 2018 - Ballotpedia" . Retrieved March 3, 2017.
  4. ↑ "Missouri Election Results". The New York Times. November 11, 2018. Retrieved November 11, 2018.
  5. ↑ Wise, Lindsay (September 1, 2016). "McCaskill to seek third term in U.S. Senate". McClatchy Washington Bureau . Retrieved November 17, 2016.
  6. ↑ Mannies, Jo (November 18, 2016). "Undaunted by Democratic setbacks, McCaskill running for re-election in 2018". St. Louis Public Radio . Retrieved November 28, 2016.
  7. ↑ McDermott, Kevin (August 9, 2017). "McCaskill faces primary challenge from the left by political novice". St. Louis Post-Dispatch . Retrieved August 12, 2017.
  8. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 "Candidate Filing List, 2018 Primary Election". Missouri Secretary of State. Retrieved June 20, 2018.
  9. ↑ "Obama coming to California to raise money for an endangered Democratic senator". Los Angeles Times . March 30, 2018. Retrieved March 31, 2018.
  10. ↑ "MO & WI-Sen: Sen Catherine Cortez Masto (D. NV) Helps These Dems Keep Up The Resistance". Daily Kos. September 30, 2017.
  11. ↑ "MO-Sen: Dick Durbin (D. IL) Slams Josh Hawley (R) Over Remarks Linking Feminism To Sex Trafficking". Daily Kos. February 6, 2018.
  12. ↑ "MO-Sen: Kamala Harris (D. CA) Helps Claire McCaskill (D) Fight Back To Defeat Trumpcare". Daily Kos. June 13, 2017.
  13. ↑ "MA & MO-Sen: Maggie Hassan (D. NH) Helps Warren (D) & McCaskill (D) Fight Back Against Trump". Daily Kos. May 31, 2017.
  14. ↑ Jones sent out an email to supporters soliciting donations to McCaskill.
  15. ↑ "MA, WI, MO & NV-Sen: Elizabeth Warren (D) Helps These Dems Keep Up The Resistance Against Trump". Daily Kos. September 16, 2017.
  16. ↑ "Trump, in visit to Missouri, endorses Josh Hawley while promoting GOP tax plan". KansasCity.com. Retrieved January 17, 2018.
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  23. ↑ "Trump supporters, protesters turn out for presidential visit in Springfield". The Columbia Missourian. August 30, 2017. Retrieved January 7, 2018.
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  25. ↑ "Jeff Notes: Greitens reschedules tax tour; Mizzou professor not running for Senate". Springfield News-Leader. Retrieved January 16, 2018.
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  27. ↑ "State Rep. Curtman backs off possible U.S. Senate bid". St. Louis Post-Dispatch . October 14, 2017. Retrieved October 14, 2017.
  28. ↑ Faughn, Scott (July 5, 2017). "Wagner's decision remakes Republicans' 2018 plans". The Missouri Times. Retrieved July 17, 2017.
  29. ↑ Yokley, Eli (July 6, 2017). "To Avoid Senate Primary Fight, Missouri Republicans Want Hawley to Decide". Morning Consult . Retrieved July 17, 2017.
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  31. ↑ Shesgreen, Deirdre (July 17, 2017). "Hartzler opts against Senate bid to challenge McCaskill". USAToday . Retrieved July 17, 2017.
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  33. ↑ McDermott, Kevin (August 15, 2017). "Schmitt out of Missouri's U.S. Senate race, backs Hawley for GOP nomination". St. Louis Post-Dispatch . Retrieved August 15, 2017.
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  35. ↑ Robbins, Brian (September 7, 2017). "Wasinger to announce bid for State Auditor". The Missouri Times. Retrieved September 7, 2017.
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  37. ↑ "George W. Bush to fundraise for GOP candidates". Politico . September 11, 2018.
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