2018 United States Senate election in Montana

Last updated

2018 United States Senate election in Montana
Flag of Montana.svg
  2012 November 6, 2018 2024  
Turnout71.53% (of registered voters) [1] Increase2.svg
  JonTester (cropped 2).jpg Matt Rosendale 117th U.S Congress (cropped).jpg
Nominee Jon Tester Matt Rosendale
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote253,876235,963
Percentage50.33%46.78%

Montana Senate Election Results by County, 2018.svg
2018 Senate Election in Montana by Precinct.svg
Tester:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Rosendale:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%

U.S. senator before election

Jon Tester
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Jon Tester
Democratic

The 2018 United States Senate election in Montana was held on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Montana, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Contents

This was one of ten Democratic-held Senate seats up for election in a state that Donald Trump won in the 2016 presidential election. Incumbent Democratic Senator Jon Tester was reelected to a third term, defeating Republican State Auditor Matt Rosendale. Rosendale conceded on November 7, 2018. [2] This was the first Senate election in which Tester received a majority of votes. As of 2025, this is the last time Democrats won a congressional and/or statewide election in Montana.

Following his loss, Rosendale went on to run for Montana's vacant congressional seat in 2020 and won, taking office in the U.S. House of Representatives in January 2021.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominated

Endorsements

Jon Tester
U.S. executive branch officials
U.S. senators
Local and statewide politicians
Organizations

Results

Democratic primary results [16]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Jon Tester (incumbent) 114,948 100.00%
Total votes114,948 100.00%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

  • Ron Murray, businessman and candidate for the state house in 2010 [21] [22]

Declined

Endorsements

Matt Rosendale
U.S. executive branch officials
U.S. senators
Individuals
Organizations

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Troy
Downing
Russell
Fagg
Al
Olszewski
Matt
Rosendale
OtherUndecided
WPA Intelligence (R-Club for Growth) [41] April 15–16, 2018503± 4.4%12%17%8%40%23%
WPA Intelligence (R-Rosendale) [42] February 5–7, 2018401± 4.4%12%11%5%28%1% [43]

Results

Results by county
Map legend
.mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{}
Rosendale--60-70%
Rosendale--50-60%
Rosendale--40-50%
Rosendale--30-40%
Rosendale--<30%
Rosendale/Fagg tie--30-40%
Fagg--30-40%
Fagg--40-50%
Fagg--50-60%
Olszewski--30-40%
Olszewski--40-50% 2018 MT US Senate Republican primary.svg
Results by county
Map legend
  •   Rosendale—60–70%
  •   Rosendale—50–60%
  •   Rosendale—40–50%
  •   Rosendale—30–40%
  •   Rosendale—<30%
  •   Rosendale/Fagg tie—30–40%
  •   Fagg—30–40%
  •   Fagg—40–50%
  •   Fagg—50–60%
  •   Olszewski—30–40%
  •   Olszewski—40–50%
Republican primary results [16]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Matt Rosendale 51,859 33.82%
Republican Russ Fagg 43,46528.34%
Republican Troy Downing 29,34119.13%
Republican Al Olszewski 28,68118.70%
Total votes153,346 100.00%

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Nominated

In October 2018, Breckenridge told a reporter from the Associated Press that he opposed the use of dark money in politics. Breckenridge said that he realistically anticipated only receiving three or four percent of the vote in the general election, and that he endorsed Rosendale's efforts to stop the use of dark money in politics. [45] The Associated Press interpreted Breckenridge's comments as a statement that Breckenridge was dropping out of the race and endorsing Rosendale. [45] Breckenridge later stated that his use of the word "endorse" referred only to stopping the use of dark money in politics, and said he was still running for the Senate. [46] [47] [48]

Green Party

Kelly won the Green Party nomination, but a Montana district court judge ruled that he had insufficient signatures to get on the ballot. [49]

Candidates

Nominee (removed from ballot)

  • Steve Kelly, artist and environmental activist [50]

Eliminated in primary

  • Timothy Adams

Results

Results by county
Map legend
Kelly--100%
Kelly-->=90%
Kelly--80-90%
Kelly--70-80%
Kelly--60-70%
Kelly--50-60%
Kelly--40-50%
Kelly/Adams tie--30-40%
Kelly/Adams tie--50%
Adams--50-60%
Adams--60-70%
Adams--100%
No votes 2018 MT US Senate Green primary.svg
Results by county
Map legend
  •   Kelly—100%
  •   Kelly—≥90%
  •   Kelly—80–90%
  •   Kelly—70–80%
  •   Kelly—60–70%
  •   Kelly—50–60%
  •   Kelly—40–50%
  •   Kelly/Adams tie—30–40%
  •   Kelly/Adams tie—50%
  •   Adams—50–60%
  •   Adams—60–70%
  •   Adams—100%
  •   No votes
Green primary results [16]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Green Steve Kelly 971 61.22%
Green Timothy Adams61538.78%
Total votes1,586 100%

General election

Debates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [51] TossupOctober 26, 2018
Inside Elections [52] Tilt DNovember 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball [53] Lean DNovember 5, 2018
Daily Kos [54] TossupNovember 1, 2018
Fox News [55] Lean DNovember 1, 2018
CNN [56] Lean DNovember 1, 2018
RealClearPolitics [57] TossupNovember 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight [58] Likely DNovember 6, 2018

Endorsements

Jon Tester (D)
U.S. executive branch officials
U.S. senators
Newspapers
Local and statewide politicians
Organizations
Matt Rosendale (R)
U.S. executive branch officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Individuals
Organizations

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018
Candidate (party)Total receiptsTotal disbursementsCash on hand
Jon Tester (D)$19,499,290$17,946,600$1,612,530
Matt Rosendale (R)$5,034,075$4,515,910$524,379
Rick Breckenridge (L)---
Source: Federal Election Commission [81]

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Jon
Tester (D)
Matt
Rosendale (R)
Rick
Breckenridge (L)
OtherUndecided
The Trafalgar Group (R) [82] November 2–5, 2018953± 3.2%50%49%1%0%
HarrisX [83] November 1–5, 2018500± 4.4%50%42%
Change Research [84] November 2–4, 201887946%49%3%
HarrisX [85] October 31 – November 4, 2018500± 4.4%49%43%
HarrisX [86] October 30 – November 3, 2018500± 4.4%49%43%
HarrisX [87] October 29 – November 2, 2018500± 4.4%50%42%
HarrisX [88] October 28 – November 1, 2018500± 4.4%49%42%
HarrisX [89] October 27–31, 2018500± 4.4%49%42%
HarrisX [90] October 24–30, 2018700± 3.7%48%40%
Gravis Marketing [91] October 24–26, 2018782± 3.5%48%45%7%
University of Montana [92] October 10–18, 2018533± 4.3%49%39%2%10%
Montana State University Billings [93] October 8–13, 2018471± 4.5%47%38%3%12%
Montana State University Bozeman [94] September 15 – October 6, 20182,079± 2.2%46%43%3%2%7%
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care) [95] September 28, 2018594± 4.0%49%45%6%
Gravis Marketing [96] September 19–22, 2018710± 3.7%49%45%6%
Axis Research (R-NRSC) [97] September 17–19, 2018± 4.5%44%44%4%8%
AARP/Benenson Strategy Group (D) [98] September 6–16, 2018950± 3.1%50%43%2%5%
CBS News/YouGov [99] September 10–14, 201845347%45%3%5%
University of Montana [100] August 13–31, 2018466± 4.5%56%32%2%9%
WPA Intelligence (R-NRSC) [101] August 20–22, 2018600± 4.0%45%47%5%
Remington Research (R) [102] July 8–10, 20182,581± 2.0%49%46%5%
SurveyMonkey/Axios [103] June 11 – July 2, 2018974± 5.0%55%43%3%
Gravis Marketing [104] June 11–13, 2018469± 4.5%52%44%4%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Jon
Tester (D)
Generic
Republican
Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios [105] February 12–March 5, 20181,484± 3.4%42%55%3%

Results

Swing by county

Legend
Democratic--+10-15%
Democratic--+5-10%
Democratic--+<5%
Republican--+<5%
Republican--+5-10%
Republican--+10-15%
Republican--+15-20%
Republican--+20-25% 2018 MT Senate swing by county margins.svg
Swing by county
Legend
  •   Democratic—+10-15%
  •   Democratic—+5-10%
  •   Democratic—+<5%
  •   Republican—+<5%
  •   Republican—+5-10%
  •   Republican—+10-15%
  •   Republican—+15-20%
  •   Republican—+20-25%
State House district results 2018 Montana senate election results map by state house district.svg
State House district results
State Senate district results 2018 Montana Senate election results map by state senate district.svg
State Senate district results
United States Senate election in Montana, 2018 [106]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Jon Tester (incumbent) 253,876 50.33% +1.75%
Republican Matt Rosendale 235,96346.78%+1.92%
Libertarian Rick Breckenridge14,5452.88%−3.68%
Total votes504,384 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

By county

From Secretary of State of Montana [107]

CountyJon Tester
Democratic
Matt Rosendale
Republican
Rick Breckenridge
Libertarian
Total

Votes

#%#%#%
Beaverhead 1,87638.31%2,86658.53%1553.17%4,897
Big Horn 3,02764.73%1,55833.32%911.95%4,676
Blaine 1,96164.96%98232.53%762.52%3,019
Broadwater 1,07132.84%2,08663.97%1043.19%3,261
Carbon 2,68044.17%3,20952.89%1782.93%6,067
Carter 12817.02%60280.05%222.93%752
Cascade 17,43551.27%15,56645.77%1,0082.96%34,009
Chouteau 1,27547.99%1,31249.38%702.63%2,657
Custer 1,94239.77%2,76256.56%1793.67%4,883
Daniels 28129.86%63167.06%293.08%941
Dawson 1,23330.27%2,70066.29%1403.44%4,073
Deer Lodge 2,89268.27%1,20828.52%1363.21%4,236
Fallon 28121.80%95173.78%574.42%1,289
Fergus 1,96433.90%3,64062.83%1893.26%5,793
Flathead 19,65241.15%26,75956.03%1,3492.82%47,760
Gallatin 33,25159.45%21,24837.99%1,4342.56%55,933
Garfield 8111.88%57183.72%304.40%682
Glacier 3,75475.14%1,15323.08%891.78%4,996
Golden Valley 13028.63%30366.74%214.63%454
Granite 69538.76%1,04658.34%522.90%1,793
Hill 3,72958.36%2,43438.09%2273.55%6,390
Jefferson 2,95443.23%3,65353.46%2263.31%6,833
Judith Basin 38832.58%75263.14%514.28%1,191
Lake 6,91650.22%6,49147.13%3652.65%13,772
Lewis and Clark 20,50657.70%14,10639.69%9272.61%35,539
Liberty 36537.21%58659.73%303.06%981
Lincoln 2,90231.08%6,13765.73%2983.19%9,337
Madison 1,89038.11%2,89858.44%1713.45%4,959
McCone 22722.06%77375.12%292.82%1,029
Meagher 31932.68%62964.45%282.87%976
Mineral 78538.14%1,18157.39%924.47%2,058
Missoula 41,68867.62%18,63130.22%1,3322.16%61,651
Musselshell 57323.56%1,74371.67%1164.77%2,432
Park 5,11452.59%4,35744.81%2532.60%9,724
Petroleum 5818.59%24879.49%61.92%312
Phillips 57727.71%1,42668.49%793.79%2,082
Pondera 1,17643.80%1,41352.63%963.58%2,685
Powder River 20320.86%74876.88%222.26%973
Powell 1,02637.17%1,64159.46%933.37%2,760
Prairie 17727.11%45068.91%263.98%653
Ravalli 9,15639.13%13,62258.21%6232.66%23,401
Richland 1,13626.22%3,01769.64%1794.13%4,332
Roosevelt 2,01358.40%1,34639.05%882.55%3,447
Rosebud 1,51144.88%1,76552.42%912.70%3,367
Sanders 2,07133.65%3,85662.66%2273.69%6,154
Sheridan 71239.29%1,01756.13%834.58%1,812
Silver Bow 11,67271.55%4,24626.03%3942.42%16,312
Stillwater 1,50130.86%3,20665.91%1573.23%4,864
Sweet Grass 65231.08%1,37265.40%743.53%2,098
Teton 1,29040.86%1,78456.51%832.63%3,157
Toole 62632.90%1,20863.48%693.63%1,903
Treasure 12931.16%27967.39%61.45%414
Valley 1,54539.80%2,13755.05%2005.15%3,882
Wheatland 31533.76%58662.81%323.43%933
Wibaux 14025.83%39071.96%122.21%542
Yellowstone 32,22546.53%34,68250.08%2,3513.39%69,258

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

References

  1. "Montana Voter Turnout - Official Montana Secretary of State Website - Christi Jacobsen". Montana Secretary of State - Christi Jacobsen. February 22, 2018. Retrieved February 7, 2024.
  2. Rosendale congratulates Sen. Tester on his victory, KULR , November 7, 2018. Retrieved November 8, 2018.
  3. "Montana Senator Tester says $1.2M raised in 3rd quarter for re-election". Greatfallstribune.com. October 9, 2017. Retrieved May 2, 2018.
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  8. 1 2 "MT-Sen: Sen. Ed Markey (D. MA) Helps Fellow Net Neutrality Champ Jon Tester (D) Fight Back". Daily Kos. February 27, 2018.
  9. 1 2 "MT-Sen: Sen. Tom Udall (D. NM) Helps Jon Tester (D) Keep Up The Resistance Against Trump". Daily Kos. September 27, 2017.
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  21. Michels, Holly K. (June 23, 2017). "Belgrade Republican announces candidacy for GOP Senate bid". Independent Record . Retrieved July 5, 2017.
  22. "GOP U.S. Senate candidate Murray drops out". KXLH . Archived from the original on August 16, 2018. Retrieved August 16, 2018.
  23. Robillard, Kevin; Schneider, Elena (June 2, 2017). "Montana AG declines Senate run against Tester". Politico . Retrieved June 2, 2017.
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  25. King, Jon (September 2, 2016). "Ryan Zinke Hints That Fellow Navy Seal Rob O'Neill May Run for Senate". KGVO . Retrieved September 19, 2016.
  26. "Endorse Troy Downing for U.S. Senate". Troydowning.com. Archived from the original on June 11, 2018. Retrieved May 2, 2018.
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  41. WPA Intelligence (R-Club for Growth)
  42. WPA Intelligence (R-Rosendale)
  43. Ron Murray 1%
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  67. 1 2 "Rosendale heads to Washington for meetings, fundraiser". AP NEWS. June 12, 2018.
  68. Corin Cates-Carney (October 23, 2018). "National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Stumps For Rosendale In Montana". MTPR. Retrieved October 26, 2018.
  69. Hann, Derek (October 29, 2018). "U.S. Sen. Rand Paul stumps in Havre in support of Rosendale". Havre Daily News . Retrieved October 31, 2018.
  70. Drake, Phil. "Libertarian endorses Rosendale in Senate race". Great Falls Tribune.
  71. Brascia, Dominick (October 25, 2018). "EXCLUSIVE: VETERAN DOWNING SAYS TESTER BAD FOR VETS". kmmsam.com.
  72. Flint, Aaron (October 29, 2018). "BREAKING: CROW TRIBAL CHAIRMAN ENDORSES ROSENDALE FOR SENATE". newstalk955.com. Retrieved October 31, 2018.
  73. "AFP-Montana Launches Six Figure Ad Buy Thanking Matt Rosendale for Expanding Health Care Options". Americans for Prosperity. August 28, 2018. Archived from the original on August 30, 2018.
  74. Christian, Peter (August 30, 2018). "MONTANA GUN GROUP GRADES AND ENDORSES POLITICAL CANDIDATES". NewsTalkKGVO.com. Archived from the original on August 30, 2018.
  75. "NOM Endorses Candidates in Key Senate Midterm Contests". NOM Blog. October 17, 2018. Archived from the original on November 1, 2018. Retrieved October 29, 2018.
  76. "National Right to Life endorses Matt Rosendale against Jon Tester for U.S. Senate in Montana". NRL News Today. June 6, 2018.
  77. "Your Freedom is Under Attack! Vote On or Before November 6th!". nrapvf.org. NRA-PVF. Archived from the original on August 16, 2023. Retrieved August 16, 2023. The NRA Political Victory Fund (NRA-PVF) has endorsed Matt Rosendale for U.S. Senate in Montana.
  78. Drake, Phil (September 12, 2018). "NRA endorses Gianforte and Rosendale, targets Tester". Great Falls Tribune . Archived from the original on September 22, 2018.
  79. "Tea Party Express Endorses Matt Rosendale for U.S. Senate". Tea Party Express. October 23, 2017.
  80. Matt Rosendale. "Honored to be endorsed by the @USChamber in Billings today. The Trump Tax Cuts are working here in Montana- creating more jobs and putting more money back in your pocket!!! #MAGA #MontanaFirst #mtsen #mtpol". Twitter.
  81. "Campaign finance data" . Retrieved October 31, 2018.
  82. The Trafalgar Group (R)
  83. HarrisX
  84. Change Research
  85. HarrisX
  86. HarrisX
  87. HarrisX
  88. HarrisX
  89. HarrisX
  90. HarrisX
  91. Gravis Marketing
  92. University of Montana
  93. Montana State University Billings
  94. Montana State University Bozeman
  95. Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care)
  96. Gravis Marketing
  97. Axis Research (R-NRSC)
  98. "AARP/Benenson Strategy Group (D)" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on September 28, 2018. Retrieved September 28, 2018.
  99. CBS News/YouGov
  100. University of Montana
  101. WPA Intelligence (R-NRSC)
  102. Remington Research (R)
  103. SurveyMonkey/Axios
  104. Gravis Marketing
  105. SurveyMonkey/Axios
  106. "Montana Secretary of State". mtelectionresults.gov.
  107. "Montana Secretary of State". electionresults.mt.gov. Retrieved August 20, 2021.

Official campaign websites