2018 United States Senate election in Utah

Last updated

2018 United States Senate election in Utah
Flag of Utah (2011-2024).svg
←  2012 November 6, 2018 2024  →
Turnout74.15% Increase2.svg
  Mitt Romney official US Senate portrait (cropped).jpg No image.svg
Nominee Mitt Romney Jenny Wilson
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote665,215328,541
Percentage62.59%30.91%
2018 United States Senate election in Utah results map by county.svg
UT 2018 SN CD.svg
2018 United States Senate election in Utah results map by precinct.svg
Romney:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Wilson:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
     No data
U.S. senator before election

Orrin Hatch
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Mitt Romney
Republican

The 2018 United States Senate election in Utah took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Utah, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. The primaries took place on June 26. [1]

Contents

Incumbent Republican senator Orrin Hatch announced in January 2018 that he would retire and not seek reelection to an eighth term, making this the first open seat U.S. Senate election in Utah since 1992 and the first in this seat since 1905. The general election was won by Mitt Romney, who had been the Republican nominee for president in 2012 and previously was the 70th governor of Massachusetts from 2003 to 2007. Romney became only the third person in American history to be elected governor and U.S. senator in different states, and the first former major party presidential nominee to run for a new office since Walter Mondale in 2002. [2]

Background

Process

Utah's 2018 U.S. Senate candidates had dual routes toward placement on the primary election ballot: (1) eligibility via win or second-place showings at a convention of delegates selected from party local caucuses; and/or (2) eligibility via obtaining sufficient petition signatures.

Taking the traditional route, the top two candidates for the U.S. Senate at any of the party state conventions (to be held this year the latter part of April) will be placed on the June 26 primary election ballot. Also, any candidate who collects 28,000 ballot-access petition signatures will be placed on the primary ballot.

If no competitor will have achieved the above-mentioned alternate access to the primary ballot through collected signatures and a convention winner had achieved sixty-percent of delegate votes, this candidate straightaway receives his or her party's nomination solely via the older-style caucuses-convention system. Otherwise, a candidate will be nominated through receiving a plurality of votes in the primary election and thereby advance to the November general election.

Incumbent Orrin Hatch did not seek reelection. [3]

Hatch to retire

Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Orrin Hatch was reelected to a seventh term in 2012. During his 2012 reelection campaign, Hatch had pledged that if he were elected that it would be his last term. [4] Hatch won his first election in 1976 in part by criticizing the incumbent's 18-year tenure. Hatch initially announced a re-election campaign on March 9, 2017, [5] [6] [7] [8] though he also said at that time that he might withdraw from the race if Mitt Romney decided to run. [9] An August 19–21, 2016, poll conducted by Public Policy Polling found only 19% of voters wanted Hatch to run in 2018, while 71% wanted him to retire. [10] On October 27, 2017, Hatch reportedly told friends privately that he was going to retire in 2019 [11] and on January 2, 2018, made a public announcement of his plans to retire at the end of his current term in January 2019. [3]

Republican primary

Romney campaigning Mitt Romney in Orem (42284291805) (cropped).jpg
Romney campaigning
Kennedy campaigning Mike Kennedy (42633221981)).jpg
Kennedy campaigning
People voting in the Republican primary Utah Republican primary, 2018 (42284135455).jpg
People voting in the Republican primary

Convention

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in the primary election

Eliminated at Convention

  • Loy Brunson
  • Alicia Colvin [14]
  • Stoney Fonua, tax accountant [14]
  • Chris Forbush, attorney and candidate for the Nevada State Assembly in 2016 [15]
  • Jeremy Friedbaum [14]
  • Timothy Adrian Jimenez, engineer [16]
  • Joshua Lee
  • Larry Michael Meyers, attorney [17]
  • Gayle Painter [14]
  • Samuel Parker [14]

Declined

Endorsements

Larry Meyers (eliminated at convention)

Notable individuals

Results

State Republican Convention results, 2018
CandidateFirst ballotPct.Second ballotPct.
Mike Kennedy 1,35440.69%1,64250.88%
Mitt Romney 1,53946.24%1,58549.12%
Larry Meyers1634.90%Eliminated
Samuel Parker1223.67%Eliminated
Timothy Jiminez1003.01%Eliminated
Alicia Colvin290.87%Eliminated
Stoney Fonua70.21%Eliminated
Loy Brunson40.12%Eliminated
Joshua Lee20.06%Eliminated
Chris Forbush00%Eliminated
Gayle Painter00%Eliminated
Total3,328100.00%3,227100.00%

Primary

Debates

Host
network		DateLink(s)Participants
Mitt
Romney		Mike
Kennedy
KBYU-TV May 29, 2018 [26] InvitedInvited

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Mike
Kennedy		Mitt
Romney		Undecided
Dan Jones & Associates [27] June 11–18, 2018356± 5.2%23%65%12%
Dan Jones & Associates [28] May 15–25, 2018295± 5.7%24%67%9%
Hypothetical polling

with Orrin Hatch

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Orrin
Hatch		Jon
Huntsman Jr.		Undecided
Dan Jones & Associates [29] January 9–16, 2017605± 4.0%21%62%16%

Endorsements

Mitt Romney

U.S. Executive Branch Officials

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

U.S. Governors

Statewide Officeholders

Individuals

Newspapers and Magazines

Mike Kennedy

State Legislators

Individuals

Debates

DateHostModeratorLink(s)Participants
Key:
 P Participant  A Absent  N Non-invitee  I Invitee  W  Withdrawn
Mike Kennedy Mitt Romney
May 29, 2018Utah Debate Commission David Magleby [57] PP

Results

Results by county: Romney 70-80% 60-70% 50-60% Kennedy 50-60% 2018 UT US Senate Republican primary.svg
Results by county:
Romney
  •   70–80%
  •   60–70%
  •   50–60%
Kennedy
  •   50–60%
Republican primary results [58]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Mitt Romney 240,021 71.27%
Republican Mike Kennedy 96,77128.73%
Total votes336,792 100%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Eliminated at Convention

  • Mitchell Kent Vice, businessman [60]

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Jenny Wilson

U.S. Representatives

Statewide & Local Politicians

Individuals

Mitchell Vice

Organizations

Libertarian Party

Candidates

Declared

  • Craig Bowden, veteran and businessman [70]

Constitution Party

Candidates

Declared

Independent American Party

Candidates

Declared

General election

Candidates

Debates

DateHostModeratorLink(s)Participants
Key:
 P Participant  A Absent  N Non-invitee  I Invitee  W  Withdrawn
Mitt
Romney		Jenny
Wilson
October 9, 2018Utah Debate Commission Bruce Lindsay [73] PP

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [74] Safe ROctober 26, 2018
Inside Elections [75] Safe RNovember 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball [76] Safe RNovember 5, 2018
Fox News [77] Likely RJuly 9, 2018
CNN [78] Safe RJuly 12, 2018
RealClearPolitics [79] Safe RNovember 5, 2018

^Highest rating given

Endorsements

Mitt Romney (R)

U.S. Presidents

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

U.S. Governors

Statewide Officeholders

State Legislators

Individuals

Newspapers and Magazines

Jenny Wilson (D)

U.S. Representatives

Statewide & Local Politicians

Individuals

Labor unions

Organizations

Polling

Graphical summary

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Mitt
Romney (R)		Jenny
Wilson (D)		OtherUndecided
University of Utah [84] October 3–9, 2018607± 4.0%59%23%8%10%
Dan Jones & Associates [85] August 22–31, 2018809± 3.4%55%29%8% [86] 7%
Lighthouse Research [87] August 11–27, 20182,400–59%19%9% [88] 14%
University of Utah [89] June 11–18, 2018654± 3.9%58%20%–21%
Dan Jones & Associates [90] January 15–18, 2018803± 3.5%64%19%–12%
Dan Jones & Associates [91] November 16–21, 2017600± 4.0%72%21%–7%
Dan Jones & Associates [92] August 30 – September 5, 2017 [note 1] 608± 4.0%64%26%–10%

Notes

  1. ↑ The party affiliations of candidates were not described in the question wording as a result of an oversight by the pollster.
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Mitt
Romney (R)		Jenny
Wilson (D)		Craig
Bowden (L)		Dan
McCay (R)		Mitchell
Vice (D)		Larry
Meyers (R)		Alicia
Colvin (R)		Jay
Hyatt (R)		L'Capi
Titus (R)		Timothy
Jimenez (R)		OtherUndecided
Dan Jones & Associates [93] February 9–16, 2018609± 4.0%60%14%3%2%1%1%1%1%0%0%2%14%

with Mike Kennedy

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Mike
Kennedy (R)		Jenny
Wilson (D)		Undecided
Dan Jones & Associates [27] June 11–18, 2018654± 3.9%43%28%29%

with Orrin Hatch

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Orrin
Hatch (R)		Jenny
Wilson (D)		Undecided
Dan Jones & Associates [91] November 16–21, 2017600± 4.0%50%35%15%
Dan Jones & Associates [92] August 30 – September 5, 2017608± 4.0%34%45%21%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Orrin
Hatch (R)		Evan
McMullin (I)		Generic
Democrat		OtherUndecided
JMC Analytics [94] March 18–March 20, 2017625± 3.9%29%33%11%10%17%

with Chris Stewart

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Chris
Stewart (R)		Jenny
Wilson (D)		Undecided
Dan Jones & Associates [92] August 30 – September 5, 2017608± 4.0%34%30%36%

with Matt Holland

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Matt
Holland (R)		Jenny
Wilson (D)		Undecided
Dan Jones & Associates [92] August 30 – September 5, 2017608± 4.0%23%30%47%

Results

United States Senate general election in Utah, 2018 [95]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Mitt Romney 665,215 62.59% −2.72%
Democratic Jenny Wilson 328,54130.91%+0.93%
Constitution Tim Aalders28,7742.71%−0.46%
Libertarian Craig Bowden27,6072.60%N/A
Independent American Reed McCandless12,7081.20%N/A
Write-in 52<0.01%N/A
Total votes1,062,897 100% N/A
Republican hold
State Senate Districts Results 2018 UT Senate SS.svg
State Senate Districts Results
State House Districts Results UT 2018 SN SS.svg
State House Districts Results

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Romney won all 4 congressional districts, including one that elected a Democrat. [96]

DistrictRomneyWilsonRepresentative
1st 67%25% Rob Bishop
2nd 57%36% Chris Stewart
3rd 68%26% John Curtis
4th 59%36% Mia Love
Ben McAdams

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References

  1. ↑ Wood, Benjamin (June 26, 2018). "Mitt Romney claims GOP nomination in Utah's U.S. Senate race". The Salt Lake Tribune. Retrieved June 26, 2018.
  2. ↑ "3 decades of presidential losers: Where are they now?". theweek.com. December 26, 2012. Retrieved September 27, 2020.
  3. 1 2 Martin, Jonathan (January 2, 2018). "Orrin Hatch to Retire from Senate, Opening Path for Mitt Romney". The New York Times. Retrieved January 2, 2018.
  4. ↑ Lederman, Josh (March 14, 2012). "Hatch will retire in 2018 if he wins reelection". The Hill . Retrieved October 20, 2016.
  5. ↑ Romboy, Dennis (November 6, 2014). "Sen. Orrin Hatch leaves door ajar for run in 2018". Deseret News . Retrieved October 20, 2016.
  6. ↑ Rolly, Paul (September 23, 2016). "When Hatch said he wouldn't run again, he was just kidding". The Salt Lake Tribune . Retrieved October 20, 2016.
  7. ↑ Everett, Burgess; Palmer, Anna (October 19, 2016). "Hatch may reverse himself and run in 2018". Politico . Retrieved October 20, 2016.
  8. 1 2 Raju, Manu (March 9, 2017). "First on CNN: After lobbying from Trump, Orrin Hatch plans to run again". CNN . Retrieved March 11, 2017.
  9. ↑ Prignano, Christina (March 31, 2017). "Utah Senator says he may forgo '18 run if Mitt Romney runs for his seat". The Boston Globe . Retrieved April 2, 2017.
  10. ↑ Jensen, Tom (August 24, 2016). "Utah Ready for Hatch to Move On; More Progressive Than You Might Think". Public Policy Polling . Retrieved October 20, 2016.
  11. ↑ Linskey, Annie (October 27, 2017). "A Hatch retirement — and a Romney Senate run — could be inching closer to reality". The Boston Globe. Retrieved January 2, 2018.
  12. ↑ "Mitt Romney is officially running for U.S. Senate". USA Today .
  13. ↑ McKenzie Stauffer; Heidi Hatch (June 26, 2018). "Mitt Romney wins against Mike Kennedy, Rep. Curtis defeats Herrod for second time". KUTV.com. Retrieved July 15, 2018.
  14. 1 2 3 4 5 Cathcart, Preston (March 14, 2018). "Candidates file for congressional, Utah legislative races". Deseret News . Retrieved March 15, 2018.
  15. ↑ "Op-ed: It's time to invite Sen. Orrin Hatch to come home". DeseretNews.com. August 7, 2017. Archived from the original on August 9, 2017. Retrieved August 22, 2017.
  16. ↑ "Tooelean wants to capture U.S. Senate seat" . Retrieved February 11, 2018.
  17. ↑ "St. George attorney announces run for GOP US Senate nomination". StGeorgeUtah.com. January 6, 2018. Retrieved January 10, 2018.
  18. ↑ Bowman, Bridget (April 28, 2017). "Rob Bishop Discounts Prospect of Senate Run". Roll Call . Retrieved April 30, 2017.
  19. ↑ Viebeck, Elise (April 19, 2017). "Chaffetz will leave behind Oversight panel he used to investigate Obama White House". Washington Post. Retrieved April 19, 2017.
  20. ↑ Samuels, Brett (November 20, 2017). "Prominent conservative passes on Utah Senate bid". The Hill.
  21. 1 2 Rogin, Josh (November 8, 2016). "What is Evan McMullin's endgame?". The Washington Post . Retrieved November 11, 2016.
  22. 1 2 3 "Mia Love on Twitter".
  23. ↑ Burr, Thomas; Canham, Matt (November 16, 2016). "Sen. Orrin Hatch considers re-election run, Evan McMullin won't rule out his own bid". The Salt Lake Tribune . Retrieved December 4, 2016.
  24. ↑ Weaver, Jennifer (April 16, 2018). "Ammon Bundy endorses Meyers for U.S. Senate citing his support of limited government". KUTV . Retrieved April 16, 2018.
  25. ↑ Romboy, Dennis (April 6, 2018). "Former GOP gubernatorial candidate endorses Larry Myers for U.S. Senate". Deseret News. Retrieved April 7, 2018.
  26. ↑ "- YouTube". YouTube .
  27. 1 2 Dan Jones & Associates
  28. ↑ Dan Jones & Associates
  29. ↑ Dan Jones & Associates
  30. 1 2 "Romney falls short in Utah GOP convention, forced into primary for Senate seat". Politico . April 22, 2018.
  31. 1 2 Donald J. Trump [@realdonaldtrump] (February 19, 2018). ".@MittRomney has announced he is running for the Senate from the wonderful State of Utah. He will make a great Senator and worthy successor to @OrrinHatch, and has my full support and endorsement!" (Tweet). Archived from the original on December 16, 2020. Retrieved May 7, 2021– via Twitter.
  32. 1 2 "Jeff Flake wants Mitt Romney to run for U.S. Senate in Utah". NBC News .
  33. 1 2 "Lindsey Graham on Twitter".
  34. 1 2 "ChuckGrassley on Twitter".
  35. 1 2 Kaczynski, Andrew. "Sen. Orrin Hatch: Romney will 'have my support' if he runs for Senate". CNN.
  36. 1 2 "John McCain on Twitter".
  37. 1 2 "Mitch McConnell: "We're all behind" Mitt Romney". CBS News .
  38. 1 2 "Romney, favored in Senate bid, could take on outsized role". February 18, 2018.
  39. 1 2 "Richard Shelby on Mitt Romney for U.S. Senate: 'I hope he will run - I would encourage him to run' - Yellowhammer News - Yellowhammer News". yellowhammernews.com. January 7, 2018.
  40. 1 2 "Jason Chaffetz Makes Comical Defense of Romney's Utah Senate Run: 'He's Got a Utah Driver's License'". www.mediaite.com.
  41. 1 2 "Paul Ryan on Twitter".
  42. 1 2 Beavers, Olivia (January 15, 2018). "Jeb Bush backs Romney for Utah Senate run".
  43. 1 2 "Luis Fortuño on Twitter".
  44. 1 2 "Utah Gov. Herbert says Romney should run for the Senate".
  45. 1 2 "Spencer Cox on Twitter".
  46. 1 2 "Jon Huntsman Sr. backs Mitt Romney for Senate, says he'd represent Utah 'very, very well'".
  47. 1 2 McMullin, Evan. "Thank you for your service to our state and country, Senator Hatch. In this seat, we must have a leader prepared to meet the challenges of our day and our future. I hope that leader will be @MittRomney".
  48. 1 2 Milbank, Dana (December 29, 2017). "Opinion - Run, Mitt, run" – via www.washingtonpost.com.
  49. 1 2 "Wall Street, big business start backing Mitt Romney's Senate bid as GOP establishment seeks stronger leadership in Congress". CNBC . April 16, 2018.
  50. 1 2 3 4 "Romney for Senate". National Review . January 10, 2018.
  51. 1 2 "Tribune Editorial: Mitt Romney should be a savior for Republicans and run for Senate".
  52. 1 2 "Bay State can only wish Romney luck in a Utah run - Lowell Sun". Archived from the original on February 20, 2018. Retrieved February 19, 2018.
  53. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 "Endorsements | Mike Kennedy for US Senate". www.kennedyforutah.com. Archived from the original on June 18, 2018. Retrieved June 17, 2018.
  54. 1 2 Romboy, Dennis (June 8, 2018). "Not all lawmakers on candidate Mike Kennedy's endorsement list actually back him". DeseretNews.com. Archived from the original on October 5, 2019. Retrieved June 17, 2018.
  55. ↑ Dr. Mike Kennedy. "ENDORSEMENT ALERT🚨Robert C. Oaks (Ret.) 4 Star General, USAF. Honorary Chairman for 2016 @realDonaldTrump campaign in Utah". Twitter.
  56. ↑ "Michael Johns on Twitter". Twitter.
  57. ↑ YouTube
  58. ↑ "United States Senate primary election in Utah, 2018" (PDF). Office of the Utah Lieutenant Governor. Archived from the original (PDF) on February 28, 2019. Retrieved June 6, 2019.
  59. ↑ Burr, Thomas (July 17, 2017). "SL County Councilwoman Wilson launches 2018 Senate bid, hoping to take on Orrin Hatch". The Salt Lake Tribune . Retrieved July 17, 2017.
  60. ↑ Witham, Joseph (May 22, 2017). "Mitchell Vice joins 2 other Democrats vying for Hatch's Senate seat in 2018". St. George News. Retrieved August 18, 2017.
  61. ↑ Tribune, Courtney Tanner The Salt Lake. "Navajo candidate announces bid as Democrat for Hatch's seat". The Salt Lake Tribune. Retrieved May 17, 2017.
  62. ↑ Breiner, Andrew (June 21, 2017). "Navajo Candidate Drops Out of Race Against Hatch". Roll Call. Retrieved June 21, 2017.
  63. ↑ Schott, Bryan (April 12, 2017). "Another Democrat looking to knock off Hatch in 2018". Utah Policy. Retrieved April 12, 2017.
  64. ↑ "Thank You". Danny Drew For U.S. Senate. Archived from the original on October 4, 2017. Retrieved October 2, 2017.
  65. ↑ "Salt Lake County Mayor Ben McAdams running for Congress | KSL.com" . Retrieved October 19, 2017.
  66. 1 2 Meng, Grace. ".@JennyWilsonUT is fighting to bring honest, fair, and results-focused leadership to Utah, and I can't wait to watch her ride the #BlueWave2018 to victory in November!".
  67. 1 2 Escamilla, Luz. "Excited for @UtahDemocrats Caucus at Rose Park Elementary and proud to be a surrogate for our next US Senator @JennyWilsonUT".
  68. ↑ UT, Jenny Wilson for. "Thank you for your support, @IronStache! 2018 is going to be a great year".
  69. ↑ "Mitchell Vice for United States Senate – Every American Thriving by Reinventing Politics". votevice.com.
  70. ↑ Bernick, Bob (August 18, 2016). "Bishop Holds Vast Lead Over Clemens in Utah's 1st Congressional District". Utah Policy.
  71. 1 2 3 4 "2018 Candidate Filings - Lieutenant Governor's Office: Elections". elections.utah.gov.
  72. ↑ "REED C." [ permanent dead link ]
  73. ↑ C-SPAN
  74. ↑ "2018 Senate Race Ratings for October 26, 2018". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 13, 2021.
  75. ↑ "2018 Senate Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved March 13, 2021.
  76. ↑ "2018 Crystal Ball Senate race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved October 11, 2017.
  77. ↑ "2018 Senate Power Rankings". Fox News . Retrieved July 10, 2018.
  78. ↑ "Key Races: Senate" . Retrieved July 15, 2018.
  79. ↑ "Battle for the Senate 2018" . Retrieved July 15, 2018.
  80. ↑ Mike Kennedy [@KennedyForUtah] (June 27, 2018). "As I told him last night, he will have my support and help" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  81. ↑ "Utah – Official UAW Endorsements". uawendorsements.org. United Automobile Workers.
  82. ↑ "Utah AFL-CIO Election Endorsements". utahaflcio.org. August 23, 2016. Archived from the original on July 6, 2018. Retrieved July 6, 2018.
  83. ↑ "Utah Stonewall Democrats - 2018 Primary Election Endorsements". www.utahstonewalldems.org. Archived from the original on July 6, 2018. Retrieved July 6, 2018.
  84. ↑ University of Utah
  85. ↑ Dan Jones & Associates
  86. ↑ Tim Aalders (C) with 4%, Reed McCandless (IA) and Craig Bowden (L) with 2%
  87. ↑ Lighthouse Research
  88. ↑ Craig Bowden (L) and Reed McCandless (IA) with 3%, Tim Aalders (C) with 2%, other with 1%
  89. ↑ University of Utah
  90. ↑ Dan Jones & Associates
  91. 1 2 Dan Jones & Associates
  92. 1 2 3 4 Dan Jones & Associates
  93. ↑ Dan Jones & Associates
  94. ↑ JMC Analytics
  95. ↑ "United States Senate general election in Utah, 2018" (PDF). Office of the Utah Lieutenant Governor. Archived from the original (PDF) on April 16, 2021. Retrieved June 6, 2019.
  96. ↑ "DRA 2020". Daves Redistricting. Retrieved August 19, 2024.

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