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Turnout | 62.26% | ||||||||||||||||
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Rosen: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Heller: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% | |||||||||||||||||
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Elections in Nevada |
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Nevadaportal |
The 2018 United States Senate election in Nevada took place November 6, 2018, to elect one of two U.S. senators from Nevada. Incumbent Republican senator Dean Heller lost re-election to a second full term, being defeated by Democratic nominee Jacky Rosen.
Heller had considered a bid for Nevada governor but instead announced he would run for reelection to a second full term. This was the only Republican-held U.S. Senate seat up for election in 2018 in a state Hillary Clinton won in the 2016 presidential election, and one of two Democratic flips in the 2018 U.S. Senate elections. [1] [2] Rosen's victory marked the first time that Nevada had been represented by two women in the United States Senate, and the first time a Democrat had won the Class 1 Senate seat in Nevada since 1994 (as well as the first time both Senate seats were held by Democrats since 2001). Heller was the only Republican incumbent to lose a Senate seat in 2018; he later unsuccessfully ran in the 2022 Republican primary for Governor of Nevada.
The candidate filing deadline was March 16, 2018, and the primary election was held on June 12. [3]
Nevada is a swing state that once leaned slightly rightward, having voted for George W. Bush twice. But since 2008 it has seen the opposite trend, giving Barack Obama a seven-point victory in 2012 while simultaneously electing Heller to the Senate by one point. Obama also carried Nevada in 2008 by a 12.5% margin. In 2016, the state shifted rightward again, still voting for Hillary Clinton, but only by two points, although Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto managed to win the seat of retiring Democratic Senate leader Harry Reid. Because of the consistent swing nature of the state, many cited Heller as the most vulnerable incumbent Republican in the U.S. Senate up for reelection in 2018, a year with few Republicans in that position; President Donald Trump even warned that if Heller failed to vote to pass the GOP Health care bill to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act, he could well lose his seat in the next election. [4] [5]
At the end of September 2018, the Brett Kavanaugh Supreme Court nomination became a major element of the campaign. Heller made noncommittal remarks [6] and a significant campaign was deployed to criticize his support for Kavanaugh. [7] [8]
Rosen is only the 37th sitting House freshman to win a Senate election, the first female representative to do so, and the first one-term House Democrat to become a senator-elect since James Abourezk in 1972. [9]
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with Danny Tarkanian
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Dean Heller | Danny Tarkanian | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JMC Analytics [33] | October 24–26, 2017 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 38% | 44% | 17% |
JMC Analytics [34] | August 24–25, 2017 | 700 | ± 3.7% | 31% | 39% | 31% |
The Tarrance Group (R-Heller) [35] | August 14–16, 2017 | 300 | ± 5.8% | 55% | 33% | 12% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Dean Heller (incumbent) | 99,509 | 69.97% | |
Republican | Tom Heck | 26,296 | 18.49% | |
Republican | None of These Candidates | 5,978 | 4.20% | |
Republican | Sherry Brooks | 5,145 | 3.62% | |
Republican | Sarah Gazala | 4,011 | 2.82% | |
Republican | Vic Harrell | 1,282 | 0.90% | |
Total votes | 142,221 | 100.00% |
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Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Jacky Rosen | 110,567 | 77.11% | |
Democratic | None of These Candidates | 10,078 | 7.03% | |
Democratic | David Knight | 6,346 | 4.43% | |
Democratic | Allen Rheinhart | 4,782 | 3.33% | |
Democratic | Jesse Sbaih | 4,540 | 3.17% | |
Democratic | Bobby Mahendra | 3,835 | 2.67% | |
Democratic | Danny Burleigh | 3,244 | 2.26% | |
Total votes | 143,392 | 100.00% |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report [81] | Tossup | October 26, 2018 |
Inside Elections [82] | Tilt D (flip) | November 1, 2018 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [83] | Lean D (flip) | November 5, 2018 |
CNN [84] | Tossup | October 30, 2018 |
RealClearPolitics [85] | Tossup | November 5, 2018 |
Daily Kos [86] | Tossup | October 26, 2018 |
Fox News [87] | Tossup | October 30, 2018 |
FiveThirtyEight [88] | Tossup | November 6, 2018 |
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Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate (party) | Total receipts | Total disbursements | Cash on hand |
Dean Heller (R) Incumbent | $14,525,094 | $12,538,859 | $2,211,457 |
Jacky Rosen (D) | $21,571,221 | $20,817,629 | $768,851 |
Source: Federal Election Commission [112] |
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Dean Heller (R) | Jacky Rosen (D) | Tim Hagan (L) | None of these | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HarrisX [113] | November 3–5, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 45% | 47% | – | – | – | – |
HarrisX [114] | November 2–4, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 46% | 46% | – | – | – | – |
Emerson College [115] | November 1–4, 2018 | 1,197 | ± 3.0% | 45% | 49% | – | – | 3% | 4% |
HarrisX [116] | November 1–3, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 46% | 45% | – | – | – | – |
HarrisX [117] | October 31 – November 2, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 45% | 44% | – | – | – | – |
HarrisX [118] | October 30 – November 1, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 46% | 43% | – | – | – | – |
Trafalgar Group (R) [119] | October 29 – November 1, 2018 | 2,587 | ± 1.9% | 49% | 46% | – | – | 2% | 3% |
HarrisX [120] | October 29–31, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 45% | 45% | – | – | – | – |
HarrisX [121] | October 24–30, 2018 | 1,400 | ± 2.6% | 43% | 46% | – | – | – | – |
CNN/SSRS [122] | October 24–29, 2018 | 622 LV | ± 4.8% | 45% | 48% | 2% | 4% | 0% | 1% |
807 RV | ± 4.2% | 41% | 44% | 4% | 8% | 0% | 3% | ||
Gravis Marketing [123] | October 24–26, 2018 | 773 | ± 3.5% | 45% | 47% | – | – | – | 7% |
Ipsos [124] | October 12–19, 2018 | 1,137 | ± 3.0% | 47% | 41% | – | – | 8% | 4% |
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care) [125] | October 15–16, 2018 | 648 | ± 3.9% | 46% | 48% | – | – | – | 7% |
Vox Populi Polling [126] | October 13–15, 2018 | 614 | ± 3.7% | 49% | 51% | – | – | – | – |
Emerson College [127] | October 10–12, 2018 | 625 | ± 4.2% | 48% | 41% | – | – | 3% | 8% |
NYT Upshot/Siena College [128] | October 8–10, 2018 | 642 | ± 4.0% | 47% | 45% | – | – | 1% | 7% |
NBC News/Marist [129] | September 30 – October 3, 2018 | 574 LV | ± 5.5% | 44% | 42% | 8% | 2% | <1% | 4% |
46% | 44% | – | 5% | 1% | 4% | ||||
780 RV | ± 4.5% | 42% | 41% | 8% | 3% | <1% | 6% | ||
45% | 43% | – | 6% | 1% | 6% | ||||
Kaiser Family Foundation/SSRS [130] | September 19 – October 2, 2018 | 513 | ± 5.0% | 45% | 44% | – | – | 4% | 7% |
CNN/SSRS [131] | September 25–29, 2018 | 693 LV | ± 4.6% | 43% | 47% | 4% | 5% | 0% | 1% |
851 RV | ± 4.1% | 40% | 43% | 5% | 10% | 0% | 2% | ||
Ipsos [132] | September 7–17, 2018 | 1,039 | ± 4.0% | 46% | 43% | – | – | 4% | 8% |
Gravis Marketing [133] | September 11–12, 2018 | 700 | ± 3.7% | 45% | 47% | – | – | – | 8% |
Suffolk University [134] [a] | September 5–10, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 41% | 42% | 2% | 2% | 4% [135] | 9% |
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care) [136] | August 20–21, 2018 | 528 | ± 4.3% | 43% | 48% | – | – | – | – |
Suffolk University [137] | July 24–29, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 41% | 40% | 2% | 5% | 3% [138] | 9% |
SurveyMonkey/Axios [139] | June 11 – July 2, 2018 | 1,097 | ± 5.5% | 45% | 48% | – | – | – | 7% |
Gravis Marketing [140] | June 23–26, 2018 | 630 | ± 3.9% | 41% | 45% | – | – | – | 14% |
Public Policy Polling (D-Health Care Voter) [141] | April 30 – May 1, 2018 | 637 | ± 3.9% | 42% | 44% | – | – | – | 14% |
SurveyMonkey/Axios [142] | April 2–23, 2018 | 1,332 | ± 5.0% | 44% | 50% | – | – | – | 6% |
The Mellman Group [143] | April 12–19, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 40% | 39% | – | – | – | 21% |
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care) [144] | March 15–17, 2018 | 720 | ± 3.7% | 39% | 44% | – | – | – | 17% |
Public Policy Polling [145] | June 23–25, 2017 | 648 | ± 3.9% | 41% | 42% | – | – | – | 17% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Dean Heller (R) | Generic Democrat | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling (D-Our Lives on the Line) [146] | July 26–27, 2017 | 847 | ± 3.6% | 31% | 50% | 18% |
Public Policy Polling (D-Save My Care) [147] | June 13–14, 2017 | 706 | ± 3.4% | 39% | 46% | 14% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Generic Republican | Generic Democrat | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care) [144] | March 15–17, 2018 | 720 | ± 3.7% | 41% | 47% | 12% |
with Dina Titus
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Dean Heller (R) | Dina Titus (D) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Anzalone Liszt Grove Research [148] | June 23–29, 2017 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 47% | 45% | 8% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Jacky Rosen | 490,071 | 50.41% | +5.70% | |
Republican | Dean Heller (incumbent) | 441,202 | 45.38% | −0.49% | |
None of These Candidates | 15,303 | 1.57% | -2.97% | ||
Independent | Barry Michaels | 9,269 | 0.95% | N/A | |
Libertarian | Tim Hagan | 9,196 | 0.95% | N/A | |
Independent American | Kamau Bakari | 7,091 | 0.73% | −4.16% | |
Total votes | 972,132 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
Democratic gain from Republican |
Heller carried 15 of Nevada's 17 county-level jurisdictions, but Rosen carried the two largest, Clark (home to Las Vegas) and Washoe (home to Reno). She won Clark County by over 92,000 votes, almost double her statewide margin of over 48,900 votes. [150]
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Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic |
Rosen won 3 of 4 congressional districts. [151]
District | Rosen | Heller | Representative |
---|---|---|---|
1st | 63.77% | 31.62% | Dina Titus |
2nd | 42.53% | 53.19% | Mark Amodei |
3rd | 50.39% | 45.95% | Susie Lee |
4th | 51.44% | 44.06% | Steven Horsford |
Dean Arthur Heller is an American businessman and politician who served as a United States senator representing Nevada from 2011 to 2019. A member of the Republican Party, he served as the 15th secretary of state of Nevada from 1995 to 2007 and U.S. representative for Nevada's 2nd congressional district from 2007 to 2011. He was appointed to the U.S. Senate by Governor Brian Sandoval and elected to a full term in the 2012 election. Heller unsuccessfully ran for a second term in 2018, losing to Democrat Jacky Rosen. He was an unsuccessful candidate for governor of Nevada in 2022, and is currently the last Republican to win a Nevada U.S. Senate seat.
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The 2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Nevada were held on November 6, 2018, to elect the four U.S. representatives from the State of Nevada, one from each of the state's four congressional districts. The elections coincided with the Nevada gubernatorial election, as well as other elections to the United States House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate and various state and local elections. Primary elections were held on June 12, 2018.
The Nevada general election, 2018 was held on Tuesday, November 6, 2018, throughout Nevada.
The 2020 United States House of Representatives elections in Nevada was held on November 3, 2020, to elect the four U.S. representatives from the state of Nevada, one from each of the state's four congressional districts. The elections coincided with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the Nevada Senate and various state and local elections.
The 2018 United States Senate special election in Minnesota took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a United States senator from Minnesota to replace incumbent Democratic senator Al Franken until the regular expiration of the term on January 3, 2021. Facing multiple accusations of sexual misconduct, Franken announced on December 7, 2017, that he would resign effective January 2, 2018. Governor Mark Dayton appointed Franken's successor, Tina Smith, on December 13, 2017, and she ran in the special election. This election coincided with a regularly scheduled U.S. Senate election for the Class 1 Senate seat, U.S. House elections, a gubernatorial election, State House elections, and other elections.
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The NRA Political Victory Fund (NRA-PVF) has endorsed Dean Heller for U.S. Senate.
Official campaign websites