2018 United States Senate election in Virginia

Last updated

2018 United States Senate election in Virginia
Flag of Virginia.svg
  2012 November 6, 2018 2024  
Turnout59.14% Decrease2.svg
  Tim Kaine 116th official portrait.jpg Corey Stewart 8 by 10 crop.jpg
Nominee Tim Kaine Corey Stewart
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote1,910,3701,374,313
Percentage57.00%41.01%

2018 United States Senate election in Virginia results map by county.svg
2018 US Senate Election in Virginia by Congressional District.svg
VA 2018 US Senate election results by precinct.svg
Kaine:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Stewart:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%

U.S. senator before election

Tim Kaine
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Tim Kaine
Democratic

The 2018 United States Senate election in Virginia took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Virginia, concurrently with other elections to the U.S. Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic Senator Tim Kaine, who had been his party's unsuccessful nominee for vice president two years earlier, was re-elected to a second term in office, winning this seat by the largest margin since 1988. This was the first election since 1994 that anyone had been re-elected to this seat.

Contents

The Republican Party of Virginia central committee voted to select the Republican nominee for Senate by a primary rather than a convention. Corey Stewart, chair of the Prince William Board of County Supervisors, won the Republican nomination on June 12, 2018, after defeating Delegate Nick Freitas and Christian minister E. W. Jackson. [1]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Failed to qualify

Declined

Endorsements

Nick Freitas

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

U.S. Governors

State senators

State delegates

Local Officials

Notable Individuals

Party leadership

Organizations

News Publications

  • Arlington Sun Gazette [57]
  • The Reagan Battalion [58]
  • 71 Republic [59]
E. W. Jackson

Cabinet-level officials

U.S. governors

Statewide office holders

Local officials

  • Suzy Kelly, Chesapeake city councilwoman, chairman of the Virginia Chamber of Commerce, CEO of Jo-Kell

Notable individuals

Organizations

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Nick
Freitas
E. W.
Jackson
Corey
Stewart
OtherUndecided
Atlantic Media & Research (R-Stewart) [64] May 14–18, 2018355± 5.2%9%5%32%
Christopher Newport University [65] February 5–28, 2018422± 2.5%6%7%16%5% [66] 66%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Dave
Brat
Corey
Stewart
Scott
Taylor
OtherUndecided
University of Mary Washington [67] September 5–12, 2017562 LV± 5.2%11%15%20%12%38%
867 RV± 4.1%9%12%20%9%45%

Results

Results by county and independent city:
.mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{}
Stewart--70-80%
Stewart--60-70%
Stewart--50-60%
Stewart--40-50%
Stewart--<40%
Tie
Freitas--<40%
Freitas--40-50%
Freitas--50-60%
Freitas--60-70%
Freitas--70-80% Virginia U.S. Senate Republican primary, 2018.svg
Results by county and independent city:
  Stewart—70–80%
  Stewart—60–70%
  Stewart—50–60%
  Stewart—40–50%
  Stewart—<40%
  Tie
  Freitas—<40%
  Freitas—40–50%
  Freitas—50–60%
  Freitas—60–70%
  Freitas—70–80%
Republican primary results [68]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Corey Stewart 136,610 44.87%
Republican Nick Freitas131,32143.14%
Republican Earl Jackson, Sr.36,50811.99%
Total votes304,439 100.00%

Third party candidates

General election

The election featured a match-up of two Minnesota-born Virginians: Republican Corey Stewart was born in Duluth, Minnesota, and Democrat Tim Kaine was born in Saint Paul, Minnesota. [74] All polls leading up to the election showed Kaine defeating Stewart by a wide margin. When polls closed on Election Day, Tim Kaine was immediately declared the winner before the votes were counted based on exit polling alone.

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [75] Safe DOctober 26, 2018
Inside Elections [76] Safe DNovember 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball [77] Safe DNovember 5, 2018
Fox News [78] Likely DJuly 9, 2018
CNN [79] Safe DJuly 12, 2018
RealClearPolitics [80] Safe DAugust 14, 2018

Debates/Townhalls

Host
network/sponsors
DateLink(s)Participants
Tim
Kaine (D)
Corey
Stewart (R)
Matt
Waters (L)
PBS NewsHour/Virginia Bar Association July 21, 2018 [81] InvitedInvited
Hampton University/Liberty University September 20, 2018 [82] InvitedInvited
WRC-TV September 26, 2018 [83] InvitedInvited
Liberty University October 3, 2018 [84] InvitedInvited

Endorsements

Corey Stewart (R)

U.S. Executive Branch officials

U.S. Representatives

State officials

Notable individuals

Tim Kaine (D)

Former U.S. Executive Branch officials

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

State officials

Labor unions

Organizations

Matt Waters (L)

Local Officials

  • Joe Walton, Libertarian nominee for VA-07 in 2018 and former chairman of the Powhatan County Board of Supervisors [116]

Party Leadership

Notable Individuals

Organizations

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Tim
Kaine (D)
Corey
Stewart (R)
Matt
Waters (L)
OtherUndecided
University of Mary Washington/SSRS [124] September 4–9, 2018512 LV± 5.8%52%36%5%0%4%
704 RV± 5.0%51%33%5%1%7%
801 A± 4.6%49%30%6%1%9%
Cygnal/POOLHOUSE (R) [125] August 22–24, 20181,119± 2.8%50%46%4%
Roanoke College [126] August 12–19, 2018512± 4.3%51%34%4%11%
Virginia Commonwealth University [127] July 10–30, 2018757± 3.6%49%26%5%20%
Quinnipiac University [128] June 21–25, 20181,082± 3.7%54%36%0%9%
Roanoke College [129] May 20–30, 2018555± 4.2%44%33%23%
Christopher Newport University [65] February 5–28, 20181,562± 2.5%56%32%1%11%
University of Mary Washington/PSRAI [130] September 5–12, 2017562 LV± 5.2%53%36%7%
867 RV± 4.1%54%39%1%4%
Hypothetical polling

with Nick Freitas

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Tim
Kaine (D)
Nick
Freitas (R)
OtherUndecided
Roanoke College [129] May 20–30, 2018555± 4.2%45%30%25%
Christopher Newport University [65] February 5–28, 20181,562± 2.5%56%33%1%10%

with E. W. Jackson

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Tim
Kaine (D)
E. W.
Jackson (R)
OtherUndecided
Roanoke College [129] May 20–30, 2018555± 4.2%45%30%25%
Christopher Newport University [65] February 5–28, 20181,562± 2.5%56%32%1%11%

with Dave Brat

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Tim
Kaine (D)
Dave
Brat (R)
Undecided
University of Mary Washington [67] September 5–12, 2017562 LV± 5.2%54%36%7%
867 RV± 4.1%54%41%3%

with Barbara Comstock

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Tim
Kaine (D)
Barbara
Comstock (R)
Undecided
Gravis Marketing [131] March 14–19, 20173,097± 1.6%53%41%6%

with Carly Fiorina

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Tim
Kaine (D)
Carly
Fiorina (R)
OtherUndecided
Quinnipiac University [132] April 6–10, 20171,115± 2.9%57%33%7%
Gravis Marketing [131] March 14–19, 20173,097± 1.6%53%41%7%
Quinnipiac University [133] February 10–15, 2017989± 3.1%57%36%2%5%

with Laura Ingraham

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Tim
Kaine (D)
Laura
Ingraham (R)
OtherUndecided
Quinnipiac University [132] April 6–10, 20171,115± 2.9%56%35%7%
Quinnipiac University [133] February 10–15, 2017989± 3.1%56%36%2%7%

with Scott Taylor

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Tim
Kaine (D)
Scott
Taylor (R)
Undecided
University of Mary Washington [67] September 5–12, 2017562 LV± 5.2%52%37%7%
867 RV± 4.1%53%41%4%

Results

Kaine won the election by a wide margin. [134]

Results by House of Delegates 2018 United States Senate election in Virginia by House of Delegates Districts.svg
Results by House of Delegates
United States Senate election in Virginia, 2018 [135]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Tim Kaine (incumbent) 1,910,370 57.00% +4.17%
Republican Corey Stewart 1,374,31341.01%−5.91%
Libertarian Matt Waters61,5651.84%N/A
Write-in 5,1250.15%-0.10%
Total votes3,351,373 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

Counties and independent cities that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Counties and independent cities that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Kaine won 7 of 11 congressional districts. [136]

DistrictKaineStewartRepresentative
1st 48%50% Rob Wittman
2nd 54%44% Elaine Luria
3rd 70%28% Bobby Scott
4th 64%34% Donald McEachin
5th 48%50% Denver Riggleman
6th 41%56% Ben Cline
7th 52%46% Abigail Spanberger
8th 78%19% Don Beyer
9th 35%64% Morgan Griffith
10th 60%38% Jennifer Wexton
11th 73%25% Gerry Connolly

See also

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References

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  65. 1 2 3 4 Christopher Newport University
  66. Ivan Raiklin* 1%, Other 4%. *Failed to qualify.
  67. 1 2 3 University of Mary Washington
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