2005 Virginia gubernatorial election

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2005 Virginia gubernatorial election
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←  2001 November 8, 2005 2009  →
Turnout45.0% Decrease2.svg 1.4 [1]
  Gov. Tim Kaine (cropped).jpg Jerry Kilgore (2004) (1).jpg
Nominee Tim Kaine Jerry Kilgore
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote1,025,942 912,327
Percentage51.7%46.0%
2005 Virginia gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
VA CD GOV 2005.svg
Kaine:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
Kilgore:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
Governor before election

Mark Warner
Democratic

Elected Governor

Tim Kaine
Democratic

The 2005 Virginia gubernatorial election was held on November 8, 2005, to elect the Governor of Virginia. The Democratic nominee, Lieutenant Governor Tim Kaine, the son-in-law to Linwood Holton, won the election. Virginia is the only state in the United States to prohibit governors from serving successive terms, meaning that the popular incumbent, Mark Warner, could not run for reelection.

Contents

While the previous Democratic Governor, Mark Warner, was credited with doing especially well for a Democrat in rural areas of the commonwealth, Kaine's win featured surprising triumphs in traditionally Republican areas such as Virginia Beach, Chesapeake, and the Northern Virginia suburbs of Prince William County and Loudoun County, as well as impressive showings in Democratic strongholds such as Richmond and Norfolk. [2] This is the most recent election in which a Virginia Governor and Lieutenant Governor of opposite parties were elected.

Democratic primary

Republican primary

Candidates

Results

Republican primary results [3]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Jerry Kilgore 145,002 82.78
Republican George Fitch30,16817.22
Total votes175,170 100.00

General election

Candidates

The general election was expected to be close, with Independent candidate Russ Potts as a possible spoiler candidate. Kaine remained behind in polls throughout most of the campaign, at one point 10 points behind Kilgore, but captured a slight lead in the final weeks of the campaign. Kaine led in some polls for the first time in October 2005, and held his lead into the final week before the election. [4]

Kaine closely associated himself with popular outgoing Democratic Governor Mark Warner during his campaign; he won his race by a slightly larger margin than Warner. He promised homeowner tax relief, centrist fiscal leadership, and strong support for education. [5] A number of factors, from the sagging poll numbers of President George W. Bush to a public disgust over the death penalty ads run by Kilgore, have also been cited as key to his decisive win. [6] [7]

The election was the most expensive in Virginia history, with the candidates combined raising over $42 million [8]

Campaign

Kilgore resigned as attorney general in February 2005 to run for governor (as is the convention in Virginia) and easily won the primary election against Warrenton Mayor George B. Fitch to become the Republican nominee. In the general election, he ran against Democratic nominee Tim Kaine, the Lieutenant Governor of Virginia, and State Senator Russ Potts, a pro-choice Republican who ran as an independent candidate. Early in the race, Kilgore showed solid leads of ten points or more in the polls, but Kaine steadily closed the gap and ultimately defeated Kilgore by a margin of 52% to 46%.

Kilgore's campaign was at times criticized for taking steps to avoid debates; Kilgore refused to debate Potts for the majority of the campaign, at times leaving Kaine and Potts to debate each other in his absence. He agreed to debate only with Kaine, and only if the footage could not be aired in campaign commercials. During this debate, he refused to answer whether or not he would make abortion a crime. This apparent public moderation of his previously open and hard-line stance on abortion troubled some of his conservative supporters.

He was further criticized for failing to limit his negative advertisements to 50% of his campaign's total publicity as Kaine proposed. One such advertisement featured a father whose son had been murdered by a man who was on Virginia's death row; the father expressed doubt that the sentence would be carried out if Kaine were elected and alleged that Kaine would not even have authorized the execution of Adolf Hitler, based on an interview with the Richmond Times-Dispatch . [9] The negative reaction to the mention of Hitler combined with Kaine's pledge to carry out the death penalty and explanation of his personal opposition as arising from his Catholic faith helped to neutralize what many observers thought would've been a potent issue for Kilgore. Kaine's campaign also ran an ad entitled "Wrong" quoting many Virginia newspapers in their condemnation of Kilgore and his campaign ads which stated (all caps emphasis) "All these newspapers can't be WRONG: 'Jerry Kilgore's ads are a VILE attempt to manipulate for political gain. . . they TWIST the truth. . . and SMEAR Tim Kaine. . . Kilgore's attacks are DISHONEST. . . FALSELY accuse Kaine. . . and TAR a decent man. . . Kilgore CROSSED the line. . . DRAGGING Kaine's beliefs through the mud. . . Jerry Kilgore should APOLOGIZE to Tim Kaine.'" [10]

In trying to explain how a solid Republican could lose a traditionally Republican state by such a large margin, political commentators cited numerous key factors. Kaine's campaign had many political advantages, including his association with the state's popular Democratic Governor Mark Warner and defense of Warner's 2004 budget priorities, his "response ads" to Kilgore's death penalty advertisements where he spoke to voters about his religious convictions and as mentioned above, reminded them about how a large cross-section of Virginia media strongly condemned Kilgore for his negative death penalty ads, his relentless in-person campaigning across the state, and his opposition to tax increases. Experienced attorney Lawrence Roberts served as Kaine's campaign chairman. [11] In contrast, Kilgore's campaign had many political disadvantages, including a backlash over the death penalty ads that Kilgore's campaign ran in the fall, the relatively low poll numbers of then-President George W. Bush at the time of the election, and a bitter division between the moderate and conservative wings of the Republican Party over tax and spending priorities.

Debates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Sabato's Crystal Ball [12] TossupOctober 25, 2005

Polling

SourceDateKaine (D)Kilgore (R)Potts (I)
Survey USA [13] November 7, 200550%45%4%
Mason-Dixon [14] November 4, 200545%44%4%
Rasmussen [15] November 4, 200549%46%2%
Roanoke College [16] November 2, 200544%36%5%
Washington Post [17] October 30, 200547%44%4%
Rasmussen [18] October 28, 200546%44%4%
Mason-Dixon [19] October 25, 200542%44%5%
Rasmussen [20] October 24, 200546%48%2%
Hotline [21] October 18, 200540%38%5%
Survey USA [22] October 17, 200547%45%4%
Rasmussen [23] October 12, 200544%46%1%
Rasmussen [24] September 28, 200545%45%5%
Survey USA [25] September 19, 200543%46%4%
Mason-Dixon [26] September 18, 200540%41%6%
Rasmussen [27] September 16, 200540%43%5%
Survey USA [28] August 9, 200543%48%3%
Rasmussen [29] August 4, 200539%45%5%
Mason-Dixon [30] July 24, 200538%37%9%
Rasmussen [31] July 14, 200541%47%4%
Survey USA [32] June 30, 200539%49%5%
Rasmussen [33] June 16, 200540%46%2%
Survey USA [34] May 17, 200540%44%5%

Results

Majority results by county, with Kaine (Dem.) in blue and Kilgore (Rep.) in red. Virginia.Gov.2005.png
Majority results by county, with Kaine (Dem.) in blue and Kilgore (Rep.) in red.
Virginia gubernatorial election, 2005 [35]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Tim Kaine 1,025,942 51.72% −0.44%
Republican Jerry Kilgore 912,32745.99%−1.04%
Independent Russ Potts 43,9532.22%
Write-in 1,5560.08%+0.04%
Majority113,6155.73%+0.60%
Turnout 1,983,77844.96%−1.4%
Democratic hold Swing

Results by county and Independent city

County [36] KaineVotesKilgoreVotesPottsVotesOthersVotes
Accomack 49.8%3,86048.5%3,7541.6%1260.1%5
Albemarle 61.2%18,45536.4%10,9942.4%7110.0%14
Alexandria 71.9%25,06126.3%9,1731.7%6050.1%25
Alleghany 53.9%2,90744.0%2,3732.1%1150.0%2
Amelia 37.0%1,36860.9%2,2512.0%740.1%3
Amherst 43.6%3,57654.2%4,4502.1%1750.0%4
Appomattox 39.5%1,80458.3%2,6632.2%990.1%4
Arlington 74.3%42,31923.9%13,6311.7%9900.1%49
Augusta 33.1%6,39563.1%12,1973.7%7210.1%12
Bath 45.1%72953.2%8601.6%260.1%2
Bedford County 37.1%7,52460.8%12,3302.1%4200.1%14
Bedford 49.1%89248.2%8772.6%470.1%2
Bland 36.8%70661.4%1,1761.8%340.0%0
Botetourt 39.4%4,08358.4%6,0532.2%2270.1%10
Bristol 37.8%1,54861.5%2,5150.7%270.0%1
Brunswick 60.3%2,69139.0%1,7420.7%310.0%2
Buchanan 52.2%3,17147.3%2,8750.4%270.1%4
Buckingham 47.9%1,82250.0%1,8992.1%800.0%0
Buena Vista 51.9%79946.3%7131.8%280.0%0
Campbell 36.8%5,31961.3%8,8641.8%2640.1%15
Caroline 53.7%3,39644.0%2,7862.2%1420.0%1
Carroll 38.9%2,94259.2%4,4851.9%1430.0%1
Charles City 69.1%1,56529.6%6711.3%290.0%0
Charlotte 43.2%1,63754.9%2,0781.8%690.1%2
Charlottesville 79.4%8,01818.5%1,8702.0%2050.1%11
Chesapeake 50.3%26,61247.1%24,8852.6%1,3570.1%34
Chesterfield 44.7%40,13453.6%48,1121.7%1,4840.1%81
Clarke 45.0%2,22547.6%2,3507.3%3630.1%4
Colonial Heights 29.4%1,77768.2%4,1162.4%1430.0%2
Covington 61.5%1,02235.3%5873.2%530.0%0
Craig 42.4%75454.8%9752.7%480.2%3
Culpeper 38.0%3,68959.4%5,7622.5%2420.1%5
Cumberland 43.8%1,14454.3%1,4201.9%500.0%0
Danville 53.3%6,05245.6%5,1771.0%1190.0%2
Dickenson 48.0%2,37751.6%2,5590.4%180.1%3
Dinwiddie 46.4%3,16851.6%3,5231.9%1310.1%4
Emporia 48.6%79649.8%8151.6%260.0%0
Essex 48.7%1,50049.8%1,5331.5%450.0%0
Fairfax County 60.1%163,66738.0%103,2851.8%4,9070.1%241
Fairfax 57.2%3,86540.7%2,7502.0%1320.1%9
Falls Church 72.5%3,13825.5%1,1021.8%770.2%10
Fauquier 43.4%7,74653.3%9,5053.2%5760.1%20
Floyd 44.4%1,95952.7%2,3242.9%1290.0%0
Fluvanna 49.7%3,59247.8%3,4562.5%1780.0%1
Franklin County 44.9%7,01752.2%8,1572.8%4410.0%3
Franklin 57.5%1,39440.8%9881.7%410.0%0
Frederick 33.7%6,02759.8%10,6986.3%1,1250.1%26
Fredericksburg 60.8%2,61136.4%1,5612.7%1180.1%4
Galax 50.0%73047.5%6932.5%360.0%0
Giles 49.3%2,57048.1%2,5072.5%1320.1%5
Gloucester 39.6%3,98556.6%5,6883.7%3730.1%12
Goochland 42.4%3,29255.6%4,3131.9%1460.1%5
Grayson 40.3%1,87558.3%2,7101.4%660.0%0
Greene 41.1%1,84656.3%2,5262.6%1150.0%1
Greensville 55.8%1,83343.4%1,4240.8%250.0%1
Halifax 43.8%3,93154.5%4,8871.7%1490.1%5
Hampton 63.8%20,96133.7%11,0782.5%8140.1%25
Hanover 36.3%12,78461.5%21,6372.2%7700.1%19
Harrisonburg 51.0%3,53946.8%3,2512.0%1380.2%12
Henrico 53.2%49,17045.1%41,6191.6%1,4920.1%78
Henry 50.8%7,45447.8%7,0041.4%1980.0%3
Highland 39.5%47857.8%7002.6%320.1%1
Hopewell 45.1%2,30053.0%2,7051.8%900.1%4
Isle of Wight 45.7%4,66451.5%5,2622.8%2850.0%4
James City 48.5%10,20548.0%10,1043.3%7040.1%16
King and Queen 54.3%1,11443.7%8962.0%400.0%1
King George 43.0%2,04254.1%2,5692.8%1330.1%5
King William 42.7%1,95154.9%2,5092.4%1080.0%2
Lancaster 44.2%2,04353.3%2,4632.4%1130.1%6
Lee 34.4%2,45365.0%4,6400.6%420.0%0
Lexington 64.6%1,09733.4%5671.9%330.0%0
Loudoun 51.6%31,07445.8%27,5392.5%1,5010.1%65
Louisa 45.9%3,71651.7%4,1792.4%1930.0%2
Lunenburg 45.3%1,49053.2%1,7491.5%480.1%2
Lynchburg 50.9%8,32947.1%7,7081.9%3080.2%27
Madison 43.2%1,67254.4%2,1052.3%900.1%4
Manassas 46.2%3,16751.6%3,5322.1%1470.1%4
Manassas Park 45.7%65052.8%7511.4%200.1%2
Martinsville 62.4%2,36336.4%1,3801.1%430.1%2
Mathews 40.7%1,45254.5%1,9464.8%1700.0%0
Mecklenburg 42.8%2,98655.4%3,8641.9%1310.0%0
Middlesex 40.2%1,53057.0%2,1672.7%1040.0%1
Montgomery 55.4%11,50941.8%8,6702.7%5600.1%19
Nelson 55.4%2,75542.5%2,1132.1%1020.0%2
New Kent 40.4%2,24157.3%3,1792.3%1270.0%2
Newport News 57.4%21,74339.9%15,0952.6%9920.1%42
Norfolk 66.1%27,79130.7%12,8993.1%1,2900.1%50
Northampton 60.8%2,05837.1%1,2562.2%730.0%0
Northumberland 44.3%2,10453.6%2,5482.0%950.1%6
Norton 44.9%44954.0%5391.1%110.0%0
Nottoway 49.9%1,99348.6%1,9421.5%590.0%0
Orange 45.5%3,88852.4%4,4812.1%1820.0%0
Page 38.7%2,38558.2%3,5913.0%1850.1%4
Patrick 41.7%2,11156.4%2,8531.8%930.1%4
Petersburg 81.8%5,99517.4%1,2740.8%590.0%2
Pittsylvania 37.7%6,36360.8%10,2521.5%2500.0%6
Poquoson 34.2%1,38362.2%2,5153.5%1430.1%3
Portsmouth 65.7%16,31431.9%7,9262.3%5600.1%17
Powhatan 32.3%2,74465.6%5,5802.0%1700.1%6
Prince Edward 52.1%2,54646.2%2,2591.7%850.0%1
Prince George 40.9%3,38257.5%4,7511.6%1300.0%3
Prince William 49.9%33,36448.2%32,1781.8%1,2200.1%35
Pulaski 46.5%4,42751.4%4,9012.1%1990.0%0
Radford 54.2%1,92843.1%1,5342.6%940.1%2
Rappahannock 51.1%1,39747.0%1,2831.8%500.1%2
Richmond County 39.3%86358.8%1,2931.9%420.0%0
Richmond 75.9%38,90022.5%11,5291.5%7690.1%40
Roanoke County 44.7%14,12552.8%16,6862.4%7550.1%29
Roanoke 61.8%14,20735.9%8,2392.2%5050.1%21
Rockbridge 46.1%2,99351.6%3,3542.2%1420.1%5
Rockingham 32.4%6,56065.5%13,2622.0%4040.1%19
Russell 43.9%3,43155.2%4,3140.9%690.0%0
Salem 47.1%3,78849.7%3,9933.0%2420.1%12
Scott 26.2%2,15673.2%6,0160.5%430.0%0
Shenandoah 32.4%3,99663.9%7,8743.6%4380.1%12
Smyth 36.7%2,98962.1%5,0531.1%910.0%2
Southampton 49.8%2,44248.0%2,3542.2%1100.0%1
Spotsylvania 43.8%11,06154.0%13,6352.1%5330.2%38
Stafford 43.6%10,92454.1%13,5592.2%5640.1%28
Staunton 50.0%3,38446.0%3,1124.0%2700.0%3
Suffolk 53.7%10,48043.9%8,5612.3%4560.1%12
Surry 60.7%1,48037.7%9191.5%370.1%3
Sussex 54.5%1,73943.9%1,4011.5%480.0%0
Tazewell 40.8%4,19458.1%5,9701.0%1060.0%4
Virginia Beach 48.6%47,12048.0%46,4713.3%3,1780.1%120
Warren 40.3%3,40855.7%4,7053.9%3290.1%9
Washington 33.9%5,18865.4%10,0090.7%1080.0%5
Waynesboro 44.5%2,22351.9%2,5963.6%1810.0%0
Westmoreland 52.3%2,21945.4%1,9242.2%930.1%3
Williamsburg 60.5%1,78236.7%1,0812.7%800.0%1
Winchester 45.1%2,68342.0%2,49712.8%7630.1%8
Wise 38.2%3,87161.2%6,1900.6%560.0%5
Wythe 37.8%3,12559.9%4,9542.2%1850.1%5
York 44.4%8,14252.1%9,5653.4%6200.1%16

Counties and Independent Cities that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Counties and Independent Cities that flipped from Democratic to Republican

See also

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">2014 United States Senate election in Virginia</span>

The 2014 United States Senate election in Virginia was held on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Virginia, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2018 United States Senate election in Virginia</span>

The 2018 United States Senate election in Virginia took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Virginia, concurrently with other elections to the U.S. Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic Senator Tim Kaine, who had been his party's unsuccessful nominee for vice president two years earlier, was re-elected to a second term in office, winning this seat by the largest margin since 1988. This was the first election since 1994 that anyone had been re-elected to this seat.

References

  1. ↑ Virginia Department of Elections (2016). "Registration/Turnout Statistics". The Commonwealth of Virginia. Archived from the original on August 16, 2016. Retrieved July 25, 2016.
  2. ↑ Shear, Michael D. (October 18, 2005). "Kaine Sounds Slow-Growth Note in Exurbs". Washington Post.
  3. ↑ "Primary Election- June 14, 2005". Archived from the original on August 13, 2013. Retrieved May 30, 2013.
  4. ↑ VA: Kaine 49% Kilgore 46% Archived 2005-11-06 at the Wayback Machine – Rasmussen Reports, November 4, 2005
  5. ↑ Brodnitz, Pete. "Why Tim Kaine Won". www.bsgco.com. Archived from the original on July 1, 2016. Retrieved June 3, 2016.
  6. ↑ "Death penalty demagoguery" Archived 2012-09-17 at archive.today . (October 13, 2005). The Roanoke Times.
  7. ↑ "RealClear Politics – 2005 Virginia Gubernatorial Election". Retrieved November 4, 2005.
  8. ↑ "Virginia governor's race a costly one", (October 31, 2005) USA Today
  9. ↑ "No Death Penalty For Hitler? GOP Ad Goes Too Far - Factcheck.org". Archived from the original on November 29, 2006. Retrieved November 30, 2006.
  10. ↑ Richmond Times-Dispatch, October 26, 2005
  11. ↑ Kaine provides Clinton ticket with more lobbying, fundraising ties – UPI.com
  12. ↑ "The 2005 Off-Off-Year Elections: Hardfast Harbinger or Harmless Happenstance? | Sabato's Crystal Ball".
  13. ↑ Survey USA
  14. ↑ Mason-Dixon [ permanent dead link ]
  15. ↑ Rasmussen Archived 2005-11-06 at the Wayback Machine
  16. ↑ Roanoke College
  17. ↑ Washington Post
  18. ↑ Rasmussen Archived 2005-11-05 at the Wayback Machine
  19. ↑ Mason-Dixon
  20. ↑ Rasmussen Archived 2006-01-01 at the Wayback Machine
  21. ↑ Hotline
  22. ↑ Survey USA
  23. ↑ Rasmussen Archived 2005-10-18 at the Wayback Machine
  24. ↑ Rasmussen Archived 2005-11-23 at the Wayback Machine
  25. ↑ Survey USA
  26. ↑ Mason-Dixon [ permanent dead link ]
  27. ↑ Rasmussen Archived 2005-11-23 at the Wayback Machine
  28. ↑ Survey USA
  29. ↑ Rasmussen Archived 2005-10-25 at the Wayback Machine
  30. ↑ Mason-Dixon
  31. ↑ Rasmussen Archived 2005-12-25 at the Wayback Machine
  32. ↑ Survey USA
  33. ↑ Rasmussen Archived 2005-06-18 at the Wayback Machine
  34. ↑ Survey USA
  35. ↑ General Election- November 8, 2005
  36. ↑ "Virginia Elections Database – 2005 Governor General Election". Virginia Department of Elections. Retrieved October 31, 2019.

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