2025 Virginia gubernatorial election

Last updated

2025 Virginia gubernatorial election
Flag of Virginia.svg
  2021 November 4, 20252029 
  Winsome Sears portrait, 2022 (cropped).jpg Rep. Abigail Spanberger - 118th Congress (3x4 cropped).jpg
Nominee Winsome Earle-Sears Abigail Spanberger
Party Republican Democratic

Incumbent Governor

Glenn Youngkin
Republican



The 2025 Virginia gubernatorial election will be held on November 4, 2025, to elect the governor of Virginia. The incumbent Republican governor, Glenn Youngkin, is ineligible to run for re-election, as the Constitution of Virginia prohibits its governors from serving consecutive terms. The in-person early voting period runs from September 19 to November 1, 2025. [1]

Contents

Former U.S. Representative Abigail Spanberger is the Democratic nominee, [2] and Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears is the Republican nominee. If elected, Earle-Sears would become the first Jamaican-born female governor in U.S. history. [3] [4] Both Spanberger and Earle-Sears won their respective parties' nominations unopposed. Whoever wins the general election will be sworn in as the 75th governor of Virginia on January 17, 2026. This is the first gubernatorial election in Virginia in which both major party nominees are female. Virginia is one of eighteen states that have never had a female governor. [4]

This is the only Republican-held governorship up for election in 2025. Democrat Kamala Harris won the state in the 2024 presidential election by 5.8%. [5] Political analysts have described the election as a popularity indicator of Donald Trump's second presidency in the state. [6] [7] With the exception of 2013, Virginia has elected a governor of the opposite party of the sitting president of the United States in every election since 1977.

Background

Virginia is considered to be a moderately "blue" state at the federal level, which was carried by Kamala Harris by about six percentage points in the 2024 presidential election, and the last time a Republican won a federal statewide race was in the 2004 presidential election. Democrats control both U.S. Senate seats and the minimum majority in both houses of the Virginia General Assembly. With the May 2025 death of Democratic Representative Gerry Connolly, Virginia's 11th congressional district seat was vacant until James Walkinshaw won the September 9th special election, giving Democrats control a majority of Virginia's house of representative seats. [8] However, statewide offices tend to be more competitive as Republicans flipped all three statewide constitutional offices in the 2021 elections, all of which are up for election in 2025. [9] [10] [11]

Donald Trump's efforts to shrink the federal workforce is considered to be a potential issue in the election, given that many federal workers live in Northern Virginia. [12] A July 2025 Virginia Commonwealth University poll found that the most important issues for voters in the campaign were the cost of living (29%), immigration (14%) and abortion (14%). [13] Most polls, analysts and ratings show Spanberger to be the favorite to win.

Republican primary

Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears was initially viewed as the presumptive Republican nominee for governor. [14] After poor initial polling, and growing dissatisfaction with the lieutenant governor in factions of the party, Earle-Sears drew two challengers: former state senator Amanda Chase, and former state delegate Dave LaRock. Both challengers positioned themselves as more loyal to President Donald Trump. [15] [16] Ultimately, neither of them gathered the required signatures to be on the ballot, and Earle-Sears was nominated unopposed. [17]

Candidates

Nominee

Failed to qualify

Declined

Endorsements

Amanda Chase (disqualified)

State senators

Polling

Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Jason
Miyares
Winsome
Earle-Sears
Undecided
Cygnal (R) [23] October 27–29, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%12%48%40%
Cygnal (R) [24] March 13–14, 2024510 (LV)± 4.3%16%44%41%
Differentiators Data [25] February 21–24, 2023500 (LV)± 4.5%17%48%35%

Fundraising

Primary campaign finance activity through March 31, 2025
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Winsome Earle-Sears$5,677,456$1,630,867$4,046,590
Amanda Chase (failed to qualify)$34,835$51,204$1,538
Dave LaRock (failed to qualify)$26,874$25,813$1,060
Source: Virginia Public Access Project [26]

Democratic primary

Former U.S. representative Abigail Spanberger won the nomination unopposed after her only challenger, former Richmond mayor Levar Stoney, withdrew in April 2024. Stoney, seeking to avoid a complicated primary, decided to instead run for lieutenant governor. U.S. representative Bobby Scott also publicly considered a bid, but did not file a candidacy. [27]

Candidates

Nominee

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Bobby Scott (declined)

State legislators

Levar Stoney (withdrawn)

State officials

State legislators

Local officials

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Abigail
Spanberger
Levar
Stoney
Undecided
April 22, 2024Stoney withdraws from the race
Public Policy Polling (D) [35] [A] March 25–26, 2024734 (LV)44%11%45%
Christopher Newport University [36] January 11–16, 20241000 (RV)± 3.7%52%8%40%

Fundraising

Primary campaign finance activity through March 31, 2025
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Abigail Spanberger$16,301,998$5,297,212$11,004,790
Source: Virginia Public Access Project [26]

Third parties and independents

Candidates

Withdrawn

General election

Campaign

In mid-July, Earle-Sears changed campaign managers after trailing Spanberger in fundraising and polling. [38] On August 21, an opponent of Earle-Sears held up a sign outside her speech at an Arlington County School Board meeting stating "Hey Winsome, if trans [ sic ] can't share your bathroom, then Blacks can't share my water fountain", which received widespread attention and was condemned by both Earle-Sears and Spanberger. [39] [40]

Abigail Spanberger at a rally with attorney general nominee Jay Jones (left) and lieutenant governor nominee Ghazala Hashmi in Fairfax Jay Jones, Ghazala Hashmi and Abigail Spanberger at a bus rally in Fairfax City.png
Abigail Spanberger at a rally with attorney general nominee Jay Jones (left) and lieutenant governor nominee Ghazala Hashmi in Fairfax

The impact of Department of Government Efficiency and Trump's 2025 United States federal mass layoffs, reinforced the economy as the top issue for voters, particularly during the October federal government shutdown. [41] [42] During an interview on September 30th with Meet the Press, Earle-Sears did not answer whether she would ask Trump not to fire anymore federal workers. [43]

In October 2025, following messages revealed by the National Review of Jay Jones encouraging of political violence towards Todd Gilbert, Spanberger and Ghazala Hashmi called for Jones to apologize and take full responsibility for his messages. Governor Glenn Youngkin called for both of them to call for Jay Jones to step down as a candidate. Both have, as of October 14, refused to do so. Earle-Sears spent $1 million dollars on ads in the wake of the scandal tying Jones to Spanberger. [44] [45]

Throughout the campaign, Earle-Sears has mostly ran campaign attack ads on Spanberger on transgender issues, replicating the attack ads against Kamala Harris for "being for they/them" in the 2024 United States presidential election, despite top election issues being the economy, affordability, threats against democracy and federal workforce. [46] [47]

Debates

Spanberger and Earle-Sears met on October 9, 2025 at Norfolk State University for a televised debate. [48] Topics discussed during the debate included the Virginia car tax, text messages sent by Jay Jones, the federal government shutdown, affordability, energy and data centers, parents' roles in education, policies relating to transgender students in K-12 schools, reproductive rights, and policies related to marijuana. [49] During the debate, Sears pressed on Spanberger to call for Jones to exit the race and whether she still endorses Jones. [50] When asked on whether she would tell Trump to reopen the government, Sears accused Spanberger of "politicizing" the 2025 federal mass firings by the Trump administration. Spanberger referenced Sears comments on same sex marriage stating she is "morally opposed" to it and that same sex couples should not be allowed to marry, in response Sears stated "that's not discrimination". [50] [51]

2025 Virginia gubernatorial debates
No.DateHostModeratorsLink Republican Democratic
Key:
 P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited  W  Withdrawn
Earle-SearsSpanberger
1October 9, 2025 WAVY-TV
Norfolk State University
Deanna Albrittin
Tom Schaad
[52] PP

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [53] Likely D (flip)September 11, 2025
Inside Elections [54] Lean D (flip)August 28, 2025
Sabato's Crystal Ball [55] Likely D (flip)September 4, 2025
Race to the WH [56] Likely D (flip)September 2, 2025
State Navigate [57] Solid D (flip)August 22, 2025

Endorsements

Winsome Earle-Sears (R)
Executive branch officials
U.S. representatives
Statewide officials
State legislators
Local officials
Individuals
Organizations
Abigail Spanberger (D)
2025 gubernatorial candidates
Executive branch officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Statewide officials
State legislators
Organizations
Declined to endorse
Executive branch officials

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Abigail
Spanberger (D)
Winsome
Earle-Sears (R)
Other/Undecided
[c]
Margin
RealClearPolitics [104] September 29 – October 15, 2025October 16, 202550.3%43.8%5.9%Spanberger +6.5%
Decision Desk HQ [105] through October 15, 2025October 16, 202549.2%44.7%6.1%Spanberger +4.5%
Race to the WH [106] through October 16, 2025October 16, 202551.0%43.0%6.0%Spanberger +8.0%
Average50.2%43.8%6.0%Spanberger +6.4%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Winsome
Earle-Sears (R)
Abigail
Spanberger (D)
OtherUndecided
The Trafalgar Group (R)/InsiderAdvantage (R) [107] October 13–15, 20251,039 (LV)± 2.9%45%47%1% [d] 6%
The Trafalgar Group (R) [108] October 8–10, 20251,034 (LV)± 2.9%45%48%2% [e] 6%
Public Policy Polling (D) [109] [f] October 7–8, 2025558 (RV)43%52%5%
Cygnal (R) [110] October 6–7, 2025600 (LV)± 4.0%45%49%6%
Christopher Newport University [111] September 29 – October 1, 2025805 (RV)± 3.9%42%52%6%
The Trafalgar Group (R) [112] September 29 – October 1, 20251,034 (LV)± 2.9%42%47%2% [e] 9%
Emerson College [113] September 28–29, 2025725 (LV)± 3.6%42%52%5%
The Washington Post/Schar School [114] September 25–29, 20251,002 (LV)± 3.4%43%55%1% [g] 2%
1,002 (RV)40%53%4% [h] 3%
A2 Insights [115] September 16–28, 2025771 (LV)45%48%1% [i] 6%
co/efficient (R) [116] September 22–23, 20251,024 (LV)± 3.1%43%49%1% [d] 7%
OnMessage Inc. (R) [117] September 15–18, 2025800 (V)± 3.5%45%50%5%
Christopher Newport University [118] September 8–14, 2025808 (RV)± 3.9%40%52%8%
Cygnal (R) [110] September 7, 2025– (V)42%50%8%
Pulse Decision Science (R) [119] [B] September 3–5, 2025512 (LV)± 4.4%43%48%1% [d] 8%
SoCal Strategies (R) [120] [C] August 31–September 1, 2025700 (LV)41%53%6%
Virginia Commonwealth University [121] August 18–28, 2025764 (RV)± 4.1%40%49%2% [j] 11%
co/efficient (R) [122] August 23–26, 20251,025 (LV)± 3.1%43%48%3% [k] 7%
Roanoke College [123] [124] August 11–15, 2025702 (LV)± 4.3%39%46%1% [l] 14%
Wick Insights [125] July 9–11, 20251,000 (LV)± 3.0%40%50%2% [e] 8%
American Directions Research Group/AARP [126] June 25 – July 8, 20251,001 (LV)± 3.1%34%49%8% [m] 9%
Virginia Commonwealth University [127] June 19–July 3, 2025806 (A)± 4.7%37%49%2% [j] 12%
co/efficient (R) [128] [D] June 8–10, 20251,127 (LV)± 3.1%43%46%2% [e] 9%
Roanoke College [129] [130] May 12–19, 2025609 (RV)± 5.3%26%43%3% [n] 28%
Pantheon Insight/HarrisX [131] [E] May 9–13, 20251,000 (LV)± 3.1%48%52%
45%48%7% [o]
Cygnal (R) [132] February 26–28, 2025600 (LV)± 4.0%40%46%14%
Roanoke College [133] February 17–20, 2025690 (RV)± 4.7%24%39%4% [p] 33%
co/efficient (R) [134] [F] January 18–20, 2025867 (LV)± 3.3%40%40%5% [q] 15%
Virginia Commonwealth University [135] December 18, 2024 – January 15, 2025806 (A)± 4.7%34%44%5% [r] 17%
Christopher Newport University [136] January 6–13, 2025806 (RV)± 3.6%39%44%6% [s] 12%
Emerson College [137] [G] January 6–8, 20251,000 (RV)± 3.0%41%42%4% [p] 13%
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy [138] December 15–19, 2024625 (RV)± 4.0%44%47%9%
Research America Inc. [139] [H] September 3–9, 20241,000 (A)± 3.1%39%39%10% [t] 12%
co/efficient (R) [140] [D] September 7–10, 2023834 (LV)± 3.4%26%27%47%
Hypothetical polling

Winsome Earle-Sears vs. Bobby Scott

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Winsome
Earle-Sears (R)
Bobby
Scott (D)
Undecided
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy [138] December 15–19, 2024625 (RV)± 4.0%46%44%10%

Jason Miyares vs. Abigail Spanberger

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Jason
Miyares (R)
Abigail
Spanberger (D)
Undecided
Research America Inc. [139] [H] September 3–9, 20241,000 (A)± 3.1%39%40%12%
co/efficient (R) [140] [D] September 7–10, 2023834 (LV)± 3.4%22%26%52%

Results

2025 Virginia gubernatorial election [141]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Winsome Earle-Sears
Democratic Abigail Spanberger
Write-in
Total votes
Registered electors
Turnout

By county and independent city

Locality [142] Winsome Earl-Sears
Republican
Abigail Spanberger
Democratic
Write-in
Various
MarginTotal votes cast
#%#%#%#%
Accomack
Albemarle
Alexandria
Alleghany
Amelia
Amherst
Appomattox
Arlington
Augusta
Bath
Bedford
Bland
Botetourt
Bristol
Brunswick
Buchanan
Buckingham
Buena Vista
Campbell
Caroline
Carroll
Charles City
Charlotte
Charlottesville
Chesapeake
Chesterfield
Clarke
Colonial Heights
Covington
Craig
Culpeper
Cumberland
Danville
Dickenson
Dinwiddie
Emporia
Essex
Fairfax City
Fairfax County
Falls Church
Fauquier
Floyd
Fluvanna
Franklin City
Franklin County
Frederick
Fredericksburg
Galax
Giles
Gloucester
Goochland
Grayson
Greene
Greensville
Halifax
Hampton
Hanover
Harrisonburg
Henrico
Henry
Highland
Hopewell
Isle of Wight
James City
King and Queen
King George
King William
Lancaster
Lee
Lexington
Loudoun
Louisa
Lunenburg
Lynchburg
Madison
Manassas
Manassas Park
Martinsville
Mathews
Mecklenburg
Middlesex
Montgomery
Nelson
New Kent
Newport News
Norfolk
Northampton
Northumberland
Norton
Nottoway
Orange
Page
Patrick
Petersburg
Pittsylvania
Poquoson
Portsmouth
Powhatan
Prince Edward
Prince George
Prince William
Pulaski
Radford
Rappahannock
Richmond City
Richmond County
Roanoke City
Roanoke County
Rockbridge
Rockingham
Russell
Salem
Scott
Shenandoah
Smyth
Southampton
Spotsylvania
Stafford
Staunton
Suffolk
Surry
Sussex
Tazewell
Virginia Beach
Warren
Washington
Waynesboro
Westmoreland
Williamsburg
Winchester
Wise
Wythe
York
Totals

See also

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. Held office as a Republican
  3. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  4. 1 2 3 Donna Charles with 1%
  5. 1 2 3 4 Donna Charles with 2%
  6. Poll commissioned by the Democratic Governors Association, which supports Spanberger
  7. "None of these" with 1%
  8. "Neither" and "Would not vote" with 2%
  9. "Other" with 1%
  10. 1 2 "Wouldn't vote" with 1%; "Someone else" with 1%
  11. Donna Charles with 3%
  12. "Some other candidate" with 1%
  13. Donna Charles with 8%
  14. "Some other candidate" with 3%
  15. Denver Riggleman with 7%
  16. 1 2 "Someone else" with 4%
  17. "Someone else" with 5%
  18. "Wouldn't vote" with 4%; "Someone else" with 1%
  19. "Someone else" with 2%. "Don't know/Refused" with 4%
  20. "None / Would not vote" with 5%; "Other candidate" with 4%; "Refused" with 1%

Partisan clients

  1. Poll sponsored by Stoney's campaign
  2. Poll sponsored by John Reid's campaign for LT Gov
  3. Poll sponsored by the Virginia Project
  4. 1 2 3 Poll sponsored by Founders Insight
  5. Poll sponsored by Virginia FREE
  6. Poll sponsored by the Northern Virginia Republican Business Forum
  7. Poll sponsored by The Hill
  8. 1 2 Poll sponsored by the University of Mary Washington

References

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