2025 Virginia gubernatorial election

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2025 Virginia gubernatorial election
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Party Republican Democratic
Incumbent Governor

Glenn Youngkin
Republican



The 2025 Virginia gubernatorial election will be held on November 4, 2025. Incumbent Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin will be ineligible to run for re-election, as the Constitution of Virginia prohibits the state's governors from serving consecutive terms. Primary elections will take place on June 17, 2025.

Contents

Former U.S. Representative Abigail Spanberger, a Democrat, and Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears, a Republican, are considered the front-runners for their respective party nominations. Either of them would be Virginia's first female governor, [1] while Earle-Sears would also be the first black female governor in U.S. history. [2]

This is the only Republican-held governorship up for election in 2025. Democrat Kamala Harris won the state in the 2024 presidential election. [3]

Background

Virginia is considered to be a moderately blue state at the federal level, with Kamala Harris carrying Virginia by about six percentage points in the 2024 presidential election, and the last time a Republican won a federal statewide race was in the 2004 presidential election. Democrats control both U.S. Senate seats, a majority in its U.S. representative congressional delegation, and the minimum majority in both houses of the Virginia General Assembly. However, state races have seen more varied results as Republicans flipped all three statewide constitutional offices in the 2021 elections, all of which are up for election in 2025. [4] [5] [6]

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Publicly expressed interest

Declined

Endorsements

Winsome Earle-Sears

Statewide officials

Polling

Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Jason
Miyares		Winsome
Earle-Sears		Undecided
Cygnal (R) [12] October 27–29, 2024?± 4.0%12%48%40%
Cygnal (R) [13] March 13–14, 2024510 (LV)± 4.3%16%44%41%
Differentiators Data [14] February 21–24, 2023500 (LV)± 4.5%17%48%35%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Publicly expressed interest

Withdrawn

Endorsements

Abigail Spanberger

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

Statewide officials

State legislators

Local officials

Organizations

Bobby Scott (not declared)

State legislators

Levar Stoney (withdrawn)

State officials

State legislators

Local officials

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Abigail
Spanberger		Levar
Stoney		Undecided
April 22, 2024Stoney withdraws from the race
Public Policy Polling (D) [35] [A] March 25–26, 2024734 (LV)—44%11%45%
Christopher Newport University [36] January 11–16, 20241000 (RV)± 3.7%52%8%40%

Independents

Formed exploratory committee

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [38] TossupDecember 6, 2024
270toWin [39] TossupJanuary 5, 2025

Polling

Winsome Earle-Sears vs. Abigail Spanberger

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Winsome
Earle-Sears (R)		Abigail
Spanberger (D)		Undecided
co/efficient (R) [40] [B] January 18–20, 2025867 (LV)± 3.3%40%40%20% [b]
Virginia Commonwealth University [41] December 18, 2024 – January 15, 2025806 (A)± 4.7%34%44%22% [c]
Christopher Newport University [42] January 6–13, 2025806 (RV)± 3.6%39%44%18% [d]
Emerson College [43] [C] January 6–8, 20251,000 (RV)± 3.0%41%42%17% [e]
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy [44] December 15–19, 2024625 (RV)± 4.0%44%47%9%
Research America Inc. [45] [D] September 3–9, 20241,000 (A)± 3.1%39%39%22% [f]
co/efficient (R) [46] [E] September 7–10, 2023834 (LV)± 3.4%26%27%47%
Hypothetical polling

Winsome Earle-Sears vs. Bobby Scott

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Winsome
Earle-Sears (R)		Bobby
Scott (D)		Undecided
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy [44] December 15–19, 2024625 (RV)± 4.0%46%44%10%

Jason Miyares vs. Abigail Spanberger

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Jason
Miyares (R)		Abigail
Spanberger (D)		Undecided
Research America Inc. [45] [D] September 3–9, 20241,000 (A)± 3.1%39%40%12%
co/efficient (R) [46] [E] September 7–10, 2023834 (LV)± 3.4%22%26%52%

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ↑ "Someone else" with 5%
  3. ↑ "Wouldn't vote" with 4%; "Someone else" with 1%
  4. ↑ "Someone else" with 2%. "Don't know/Refused" with 4%
  5. ↑ "Someone else" with 4%
  6. ↑ "None / Would not vote" with 5%; "Other candidate" with 4%; "Refused" with 1%

Partisan clients

  1. ↑ Poll sponsored by Stoney's campaign
  2. ↑ Poll sponsored by the Northern Virginia Republican Business Forum
  3. ↑ Poll sponsored by The Hill
  4. 1 2 Poll sponsored by the University of Mary Washington
  5. 1 2 Poll sponsored by Founders Insight

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References

  1. ↑ Vozzella, Laura (December 1, 2024). "Four Centuries In, Virginia Could Be On Track For Its First Female Governor". The Washington Post .
  2. 1 2 Vozzella, Laura; Schneider, Gregory S. (September 5, 2024). "Virginia Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears announces her candidacy for governor". The Washington Post . Retrieved September 5, 2024.
  3. ↑ Manchester, Julia (November 6, 2024). "Harris defeats Trump in Virginia". The Hill. Retrieved November 16, 2024.
  4. ↑ "Live election results: 2020 Virginia results". www.politico.com. Retrieved April 20, 2023.
  5. ↑ Oliver, Ned (March 3, 2021). "Democrats have controlled Virginia government for two years. Here's what they've done". Virginia Mercury. Retrieved April 20, 2023.
  6. ↑ "GOP sweeps statewide races with 2 down-ballot wins". AP NEWS. November 2, 2021. Retrieved April 20, 2023.
  7. ↑ Lippman, David (March 27, 2024). "No, Virginia did not consider bill to allow new migrants to become police officers". VERIFYThis. Retrieved November 22, 2024.
  8. ↑ Kutner, Brad (November 22, 2024). "Ousted Virginia legislators run for new seats". WVTF . Retrieved November 22, 2024.
  9. ↑ Vozzella, Laura (November 17, 2024). "Virginia AG Jason Miyares says he will run for reelection, not governor". The Washington Post .
  10. ↑ Andrew Solender [@andrewsolender] (December 4, 2024). "Virginia Rep. Rob Wittman is "not considering a run for Governor in 2025," his campaign tells me. "Congressman Wittman is looking forward to serving his constituents in the 119th Congress and running for re-election to Congress in 2026."" (Tweet). Retrieved December 4, 2024– via Twitter.
  11. ↑ Diaz, Olivia (November 18, 2024). "Virginia Attorney General Jason Miyares will seek reelection, quelling talk of a gubernatorial bid". The Associated Press . Retrieved November 18, 2024.
  12. ↑ Cygnal (R)
  13. ↑ Cygnal (R)
  14. ↑ Differentiators Data
  15. ↑ Rankin, Sarah (November 13, 2023). "Virginia Rep. Abigail Spanberger is running for governor instead of seeking reelection to the House". The Associated Press . Retrieved November 13, 2023.
  16. 1 2 Bresnahan, John; Soellner, Mica; Zanona, Melanie (December 13, 2024). "Bobby Scott explores Virginia gubernatorial run". Punchbowl News . Retrieved December 13, 2024.
  17. ↑ Vozzella, Laura (April 22, 2024). "Richmond Mayor Stoney drops Va. governor bid, seeks lt. governor post". The Washington Post . Retrieved April 23, 2024.
  18. 1 2 Graham, Chris (November 15, 2023). "Beyer, Connolly endorse Abigail Spanberger in 2025 Virginia governor race". Augusta Free Press. Retrieved November 15, 2023.
  19. ↑ "Elect Democratic Women Endorses Rep. Abigail Spanberger for Governor of Virginia". Elect Democratic Women. December 14, 2023. Retrieved December 14, 2023.
  20. ↑ Martz, Michael (November 23, 2023). "Spanberger broadens support with Perriello endorsement". The Daily Progress . Retrieved November 27, 2023.
  21. ↑ Nir, David (December 17, 2024). "Morning Digest: Kathy Hochul could face a challenge from her own lieutenant governor". The Downballot. Retrieved December 17, 2024.
  22. ↑ "Vindman endorses Spanberger for governor". Culpeper Star-Exponent . December 14, 2024. Retrieved December 20, 2024.
  23. 1 2 Martz, Michael (November 15, 2023). "Northam endorses Spanberger in run for governor". Richmond Times-Dispatch . Retrieved November 15, 2023.
  24. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Feld, Lowell (April 8, 2024). "Monday News: "Mike Johnson faces revolt by hard-right Republicans over Ukraine aid package"; "Why is the Press Making Trump Seem More Normal?"; "The Attraction of Fascism" for Trump Supporters; Solar Eclipse and Glenn Youngkin's Budget Amendments". Blue Virginia. Retrieved May 9, 2024.
  25. ↑ "Brady PAC Endorses Abigail Spanberger for Governor of Virginia". Brady PAC. November 30, 2023. Retrieved November 30, 2023.
  26. ↑ "End Citizens United // Let America Vote Endorses Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger for Virginia Governor". End Citizens United. April 17, 2024. Retrieved May 6, 2024.
  27. ↑ "EMILYs List Endorses Abigail Spanberger for Governor of Virginia". EMILY's List . December 20, 2023. Retrieved December 20, 2023.
  28. ↑ "GIFFORDS PAC Endorses Abigail Spanberger for Virginia Governor". Giffords. May 22, 2024. Retrieved June 3, 2024.
  29. ↑ "Vote Mama PAC | Candidates". Vote Mama PAC. Retrieved December 11, 2023.
  30. ↑ "VoteVets PAC Endorses Spanberger for Governor of Virginia". VoteVets. November 29, 2023. Retrieved November 29, 2023.
  31. ↑ Vozzella, Laura (December 13, 2024). "Rep. Bobby Scott considers challenging Spanberger in Va. governor primary". The Washington Post . Retrieved December 14, 2024.
  32. ↑ Montellaro, Zach (December 5, 2023). "McAuliffe backs Richmond Mayor Stoney in 2025 Virginia governor race". Politico . Retrieved December 5, 2023.
  33. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Feld, Lowell (December 4, 2023). "Video: Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney Launches Campaign for Virginia Governor". Blue Virginia. Retrieved December 6, 2023.
  34. ↑ Steger, Preston (December 1, 2023). "Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney files paperwork to run for Virginia governor in 2025". WVEC .
  35. ↑ Public Policy Polling (D)
  36. ↑ Christopher Newport University
  37. ↑ "Fmr. Rep. Riggleman's Outlook For Trump's Next Term". Bloomberg News . December 30, 2024. Retrieved December 31, 2024.
  38. ↑ "2025 Governor Race Ratings for December 6, 2024". The Cook Political Report . Archived from the original on December 8, 2024. Retrieved December 19, 2024.
  39. ↑ "2025-26 Gubernatorial Elections Map". 270toWin . Retrieved December 19, 2024.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  40. ↑ "Virginia Car Tax Statewide Study" (PDF). co/efficient. January 20, 2025. Retrieved January 27, 2025.
  41. ↑ "Commonwealth Poll: Virginians overwhelmingly concerned about cost of living". Virginia Commonwealth University. January 24, 2025. Retrieved January 24, 2025.
  42. ↑ "Spanberger holds a 5-point lead over Winsome Earle-Sears in Virginia Governor's Race with 16% undecided". Christopher Newport University. January 16, 2025. Retrieved January 16, 2025.
  43. ↑ "Virginia 2025 Poll: Spanberger (D) 42%, Earle-Sears (R) 41%". Emerson College. January 9, 2025. Retrieved January 9, 2025.
  44. 1 2 Schmidt, Markus (January 10, 2025). "Another poll confirms tight Virginia Governor's race between Spanberger and Earle-Sears". Virginia Mercury . Retrieved January 10, 2025.
  45. 1 2 "2024 ANNUAL FALL STATEWIDE VA QUESTIONNAIRE" (PDF). Univsersity of Mary Washington. September 20, 2024. Retrieved January 27, 2025.
  46. 1 2 "VA Absentee and Early Voting Opinion Poll" (PDF). Founders Insight. September 11, 2023. Retrieved January 27, 2025.

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