2025 Virginia gubernatorial election

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2025 Virginia gubernatorial election
Flag of Virginia.svg
←  2021 November 4, 20252029 →
Turnout54.04% Decrease2.svg 0.86 [1]
  Rep. Abigail Spanberger - 118th Congress (3x4 cropped).jpg Winsome Sears portrait, 2022 (cropped).jpg
Nominee Abigail Spanberger Winsome Earle-Sears
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote1,976,8561,449,586
Percentage57.58%42.22%
2025 Virginia gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
2025 Virginia gubernatorial election results map by congressional district.svg
Spanberger:      50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
Earle-Sears:      40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
Governor before election

Glenn Youngkin
Republican

Elected Governor

Abigail Spanberger
Democratic

The 2025 Virginia gubernatorial election was held on November 4, 2025. Incumbent Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin was ineligible to run for re-election, as the Constitution of Virginia prohibits its governors from serving consecutive terms. The Democratic Party held its primary election on April 5, which former U.S. representative Abigail Spanberger won uncontested. Republican Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears won the Republican nomination uncontested.

Contents

Spanberger defeated Earle-Sears in a landslide, the largest since the 2009 Virginia gubernatorial election. As of November 2025, Virginia is one of eighteen states that has never had a female governor. Spanberger's victory was attributed to voter discontentment with the economy and with Republican president Donald Trump's 2025 layoffs of federal workers. According to a CNN exit poll, Trump had a 39% job approval rating among Virginia voters on election day. Spanberger is scheduled to be sworn in as the 75th governor of Virginia on January 17, 2026.

Although most polls, analysts, and ratings considered Spanberger to be the favorite to win, she won by a greater-than-expected margin of approximately 15%, significantly greater than Kamala Harris's margin of victory of 6% in 2024. Spanberger flipped many counties and independent cities that had not voted Democratic in decades.

Background

Virginia is considered to be a moderately blue state at the federal level, which was carried by Kamala Harris by about six percentage points in the 2024 presidential election, and the last time a Republican won a federal statewide race was in the 2004 presidential election. Democrats control both U.S. Senate seats and the minimum majority in the U.S. House of Representatives and both houses of the Virginia General Assembly. From May 21 until September 10, 2025, Virginia's 11th congressional district was vacant following the death of Democratic representative Gerry Connolly. This temporarily gave Virginia a split House delegation between Democrats and Republicans until Democrat James Walkinshaw won the special election on September 9. [2] However, statewide offices tend to be more competitive as Republicans won all three statewide constitutional offices in the 2021 elections, all of which were up for election in 2025. [3] [4] [5]

President Trump's efforts to shrink the federal workforce were considered to be a potential issue in the election, given that many federal workers reside in Northern Virginia. [6] A July 2025 Virginia Commonwealth University poll found that the most important issues for voters in the campaign were the economy (29%), immigration (14%) and abortion (14%). [7]

Republican primary

Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears was initially viewed as the presumptive Republican nominee for governor. [8] After poor initial polling, and growing dissatisfaction with the lieutenant governor in factions of the party, Earle-Sears drew two challengers: former state senator Amanda Chase and former state delegate Dave LaRock. Both challengers positioned themselves as more loyal to President Donald Trump. [9] [10] Ultimately, neither of them gathered the required signatures to be on the ballot, and Earle-Sears was nominated unopposed. [11]

Candidates

Nominee

Failed to qualify

Declined

Endorsements

Amanda Chase (disqualified)

State senators

Polling

Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Jason
Miyares		Winsome
Earle-Sears		Undecided
Cygnal (R) [17] October 27–29, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%12%48%40%
Cygnal (R) [18] March 13–14, 2024510 (LV)± 4.3%16%44%41%
Differentiators Data [19] February 21–24, 2023500 (LV)± 4.5%17%48%35%

Fundraising

Primary campaign finance activity through March 31, 2025
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Winsome Earle-Sears$5,677,456$1,630,867$4,046,590
Amanda Chase (failed to qualify)$34,835$51,204$1,538
Dave LaRock (failed to qualify)$26,874$25,813$1,060
Source: Virginia Public Access Project [20]

Democratic primary

Former U.S. representative Abigail Spanberger won the nomination unopposed after her only challenger, former Richmond mayor Levar Stoney, withdrew in April 2024. Stoney, seeking to avoid a complicated primary, decided to instead run for lieutenant governor. U.S. representative Bobby Scott also publicly considered a bid, but did not file a candidacy. [21]

Candidates

Nominee

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Bobby Scott (declined)

State legislators

Levar Stoney (withdrawn)

State officials

State legislators

Local officials

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Abigail
Spanberger		Levar
Stoney		Undecided
April 22, 2024Stoney withdraws from the race
Public Policy Polling (D) [30] [A] March 25–26, 2024734 (LV)—44%11%45%
Christopher Newport University [31] January 11–16, 20241000 (RV)± 3.7%52%8%40%

Fundraising

Primary campaign finance activity through March 31, 2025
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Abigail Spanberger$16,301,998$5,297,212$11,004,790
Source: Virginia Public Access Project [20]

Third parties and independents

Candidates

Withdrawn

General election

Campaign

Hashmi speaking at a bus rally in Fairfax, Virginia with Jay Jones and Abigail Spanberger Jay Jones, Ghazala Hashmi and Abigail Spanberger at a bus rally in Fairfax City.jpg
Hashmi speaking at a bus rally in Fairfax, Virginia with Jay Jones and Abigail Spanberger
Incumbent Lieutenant-Governor Winsome Earle-Sears campaigning. Lt Gov Winsome Earle-Sears (92ce22f0-6052-4c8b-a303-201e80a2c2ca).JPG
Incumbent Lieutenant-Governor Winsome Earle-Sears campaigning.

This election was the first gubernatorial election in Virginia history in which both major party nominees were female. [33]

In mid-July, Earle-Sears changed campaign managers after trailing Spanberger in fundraising and polling. [34] On August 21, an opponent of Earle-Sears held up a sign outside her speech at an Arlington County School Board meeting stating "Hey Winsome, if trans [ sic ] can't share your bathroom, then Blacks can't share my water fountain", which received widespread attention and was condemned by both Earle-Sears and Spanberger. [35] [36]

The impact of the Department of Government Efficiency and Trump's federal mass layoffs reinforced the economy as the top issue for voters, particularly during the October federal government shutdown. [37] [38] During an interview on September 30 with Meet the Press , Earle-Sears did not answer whether she would ask Trump not to fire any more federal workers. [39]

In October 2025, following messages revealed by the National Review of Jay Jones encouraging political violence towards former Virginia Speaker of the House Todd Gilbert, Spanberger and Ghazala Hashmi called for Jones to apologize and take full responsibility for his messages. Governor Glenn Youngkin called for both of them to call for Jay Jones to step down as a candidate, though neither did. Earle-Sears spent $1 million dollars on ads in the wake of the scandal tying Jones to Spanberger. [40] [41]

Throughout the campaign, Earle-Sears mostly ran campaign attack ads on Spanberger on transgender issues, replicating the attack ads against Kamala Harris for being "for they/them" in the 2024 United States presidential election, despite top election issues being the economy, affordability, threats against democracy and the federal workforce. [42] [43] By contrast, the Spanberger campaign attacked Earle-Sears' stance on abortion and attempted to tie her closely to President Trump.[ citation needed ]

In October 2025, during a football game at James Madison University, a fan hurled a racist remark at Earle-Sears, telling her to "go back to Haiti." The incident was quickly condemned and the fan was suspended from attending all future sporting events. [44]

The in-person early voting period ran from September 19 to November 1, 2025. [45]

Debates

Spanberger and Earle-Sears met on October 9, 2025 at Norfolk State University for their one televised debate. [46] Topics discussed during the debate included the Virginia car tax, text messages sent by Jay Jones, the federal government shutdown, affordability, energy and data centers, parents' roles in education, policies relating to transgender students in K-12 schools, reproductive rights, and policies related to marijuana. [47] During the debate, Sears pressed on Spanberger to call for Jones to exit the race and whether she still endorses Jones. [48] When asked on whether she would tell Trump to reopen the government, Sears accused Spanberger of "politicizing" the 2025 federal mass firings by the Trump administration. Spanberger claimed that Sears had previously stated that same-sex couples should not be allowed to marry and that firing employees for being gay was acceptable. After both claims, Sears interrupted Spanberger by adding "that's not discrimination". [48] [49] When asked about these comments in an interview on October 28, she claimed that she had misspoken and that she meant to say that she had not personally discriminated against gay people in that manner. [50]

2025 Virginia gubernatorial debates
No.DateHostModeratorsLink Republican Democratic
Key:
 P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited  W  Withdrawn
Earle-SearsSpanberger
1October 9, 2025 WAVY-TV
Norfolk State University 		Deanna Albrittin
Tom Schaad		 [51] PP

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [52] Likely D (flip)September 11, 2025
Inside Elections [53] Lean D (flip)August 28, 2025
Sabato's Crystal Ball [54] Likely D (flip)September 4, 2025
Race to the WH [55] Safe D (flip)October 26, 2025
State Navigate [56] Solid D (flip)August 22, 2025

Endorsements

Winsome Earle-Sears (R)
Executive branch officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Statewide officials
State legislators
Local officials
Individuals
Organizations
Abigail Spanberger (D)
Executive branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. representatives
Statewide officials
State legislators
Individuals
Organizations

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Abigail
Spanberger (D)		Winsome
Earle-Sears (R)		Other/Undecided
[c] 		Margin
Decision Desk HQ [109] through November 3, 2025November 3, 202552.3%43.1%4.6%Spanberger +9.2%
FiftyPlusOne [110] through November 3, 2025November 3, 202553.1%42.4%4.5%Spanberger +10.7%
Race to the WH [111] through November 3, 2025November 4, 202552.3%42.8%4.9%Spanberger +9.5%
RealClearPolitics [112] October 16 – November 3, 2025November 3, 202552.9%42.7%4.4%Spanberger +10.2%
VoteHub [113] through November 3, 2025November 3, 202552.1%42.9%5.0%Spanberger +9.2%
Average52.5%42.8%4.7%Spanberger +9.7%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Winsome
Earle-Sears (R)		Abigail
Spanberger (D)		OtherUndecided
Quantus Insights (R) [114] November 3, 20251,201 (LV)± 2.7%44%53%1%2%
InsiderAdvantage (R) [115] November 2–3, 2025800 (LV)± 3.5%40%50%5% [d] 5%
Research Co. [116] November 2–3, 2025423 (LV)± 4.6%46%54%––
450 (LV)43%51%–6%
The Trafalgar Group (R) [117] November 1–2, 20251,057 (LV)± 2.9%43%50%1% [e] 6%
Emerson College [118] [B] October 30–31, 2025880 (LV)± 3.2%44%55%0%1%
Echelon Insights [119] October 28–31, 2025606 (LV)± 4.7%43%55%–2%
AtlasIntel [120] October 25–30, 20251,325 (LV)± 3.0%45%54%0% [f] 1%
SoCal Strategies (R) [121] [C] October 28–29, 2025800 (LV)–43%53%–4%
State Navigate [122] October 26–28, 2025614 (LV)± 4.0%41%54%–5%
InsiderAdvantage (R)/
The Trafalgar Group (R) [123] 		October 27–28, 2025800 (LV)± 3.5%42%46%4% [g] 8%
Roanoke College [124] October 22–27, 20251,041 (LV)± 4.1%41%51%3% [h] 5%
YouGov [125] October 17–28, 20251,179 (LV)± 4.0%42%57%2%–
41%55%0%4%
A2 Insights [126] October 24–26, 2025776 (LV)–46%54%–1%
Christopher Newport University [127] October 21–23, 2025803 (LV)± 4.1%43%50%–6%
Suffolk University [128] October 19–21, 2025500 (LV)± 4.4%43%52%1% [i] 4%
Quantus Insights (R) [129] October 19–20, 20251,302 (RV)± 2.8%46%51%1%2%
State Navigate [130] October 17–20, 2025694 (LV)± 4.0%42%55%–3%
The Washington Post/Schar School [131] October 16–20, 2025927 (LV)± 3.5%42%54%2% [j] 2%
927 (RV)40%53%5% [k] 2%
Kaplan Strategies (R) [132] October 16–18, 2025556 (LV)± 4.2%41%51%–7%
co/efficient (R) [133] October 15–17, 2025937 (LV)± 3.2%44%49%1% [e] 6%
Clarity Campaign Labs (D) [134] [D] October 14–17, 2025958 (RV)± 3.2%43%53%–4%
The Trafalgar Group (R)/
InsiderAdvantage (R) [135] 		October 13–15, 20251,039 (LV)± 2.9%45%47%1% [e] 6%
Virginia Commonwealth University [136] October 6–14, 2025842 (A)± 4.0%42%49%–9%
The Trafalgar Group (R) [137] October 8–10, 20251,034 (LV)± 2.9%45%48%2% [l] 6%
Public Policy Polling (D) [138] [E] October 7–8, 2025558 (RV)–43%52%–5%
Cygnal (R) [139] October 6–7, 2025600 (LV)± 4.0%45%49%–6%
Christopher Newport University [140] September 29 – October 1, 2025805 (RV)± 3.9%42%52%–6%
The Trafalgar Group (R) [141] September 29 – October 1, 20251,034 (LV)± 2.9%42%47%2% [l] 9%
Emerson College [142] [B] September 28–29, 2025725 (LV)± 3.6%42%52%–5%
The Washington Post/Schar School [143] September 25–29, 20251,002 (LV)± 3.4%43%55%1% [m] 2%
1,002 (RV)40%53%4% [n] 3%
A2 Insights [144] September 16–28, 2025771 (LV)–45%48%1% [o] 6%
co/efficient (R) [145] September 22–23, 20251,024 (LV)± 3.1%43%49%1% [e] 7%
OnMessage Inc. (R) [146] September 15–18, 2025800 (V)± 3.5%45%50%–5%
Christopher Newport University [147] September 8–14, 2025808 (RV)± 3.9%40%52%–8%
Cygnal (R) [139] September 7, 2025– (V)–43%50%–7%
Pulse Decision Science (R) [148] [F] September 3–5, 2025512 (LV)± 4.4%43%48%1% [e] 8%
SoCal Strategies (R) [149] [G] August 31 – September 1, 2025700 (LV)–41%53%–6%
Virginia Commonwealth University [150] August 18–28, 2025764 (RV)± 4.1%40%49%2% [p] 11%
co/efficient (R) [151] August 23–26, 20251,025 (LV)± 3.1%43%48%3% [q] 7%
Roanoke College [152] [153] August 11–15, 2025702 (LV)± 4.3%39%46%1% [r] 14%
Wick Insights [154] July 9–11, 20251,000 (LV)± 3.0%40%50%2% [l] 8%
American Directions Research Group/AARP [155] June 25 – July 8, 20251,001 (LV)± 3.1%34%49%8% [s] 9%
Virginia Commonwealth University [156] June 19–July 3, 2025806 (A)± 4.7%37%49%2% [p] 12%
co/efficient (R) [157] [H] June 8–10, 20251,127 (LV)± 3.1%43%46%2% [l] 9%
Roanoke College [158] [159] May 12–19, 2025609 (RV)± 5.3%26%43%3% [t] 28%
Pantheon Insight/HarrisX [160] [I] May 9–13, 20251,000 (LV)± 3.1%48%52%––
45%48%7% [u] –
Cygnal (R) [161] February 26–28, 2025600 (LV)± 4.0%40%46%–14%
Roanoke College [162] February 17–20, 2025690 (RV)± 4.7%24%39%4% [v] 33%
co/efficient (R) [163] [J] January 18–20, 2025867 (LV)± 3.3%40%40%5% [w] 15%
Virginia Commonwealth University [164] December 18, 2024 – January 15, 2025806 (A)± 4.7%34%44%5% [x] 17%
Christopher Newport University [165] January 6–13, 2025806 (RV)± 3.6%39%44%6% [y] 12%
Emerson College [166] [B] January 6–8, 20251,000 (RV)± 3.0%41%42%4% [v] 13%
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy [167] December 15–19, 2024625 (RV)± 4.0%44%47%–9%
Research America Inc. [168] [K] September 3–9, 20241,000 (A)± 3.1%39%39%10% [z] 12%
co/efficient (R) [169] [H] September 7–10, 2023834 (LV)± 3.4%26%27%–47%
Hypothetical polling

Winsome Earle-Sears vs. Bobby Scott

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Winsome
Earle-Sears (R)		Bobby
Scott (D)		Undecided
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy [167] December 15–19, 2024625 (RV)± 4.0%46%44%10%

Jason Miyares vs. Abigail Spanberger

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Jason
Miyares (R)		Abigail
Spanberger (D)		Undecided
Research America Inc. [168] [K] September 3–9, 20241,000 (A)± 3.1%39%40%12%
co/efficient (R) [169] [H] September 7–10, 2023834 (LV)± 3.4%22%26%52%

Results

On November 4, 2025, Spanberger defeated Earle-Sears [170] in a landslide, winning by the widest margin for a Democrat since 1961. [171] Spanberger is scheduled to be sworn in as the 75th governor of Virginia and the state's first female governor on January 17, 2026. [172]

2025 Virginia gubernatorial election [173]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Abigail Spanberger 1,976,856 57.58% +8.94%
Republican Winsome Earle-Sears 1,449,58642.22%−8.36%
Write-in 6,8970.20%+0.12%
Total votes3,433,339 100.00%
Registered electors
Turnout
Democratic gain from Republican

By county and independent city

Locality [174] Winsome Earle-Sears
Republican		Abigail Spanberger
Democratic		Write-in
Various		MarginTotal
#%#%#%#%
Accomack 7,12954.57%5,92545.35%100.08%−1,204−9.22%13,064
Albemarle 16,48029.48%39,32270.35%930.17%22,84240.87%55,895
Alexandria 10,42416.59%52,23083.11%1900.30%41,80666.52%62,844
Alleghany 4,01169.14%1,77930.67%110.19%−2,232−38.48%5,801
Amelia 4,52171.08%1,83128.79%80.13%−2,690−42.30%6,360
Amherst 8,81167.13%4,29432.72%200.15%−4,517−34.42%13,125
Appomattox 5,60975.94%1,76523.90%120.16%−3,844−52.04%7,386
Arlington 15,92915.96%83,65783.81%2350.24%67,72867.85%99,821
Augusta 24,61271.98%9,52227.85%600.18%−15,090−44.13%34,194
Bath 1,42174.05%49325.69%50.26%−928−48.36%1,919
Bedford 29,16674.27%10,04825.59%570.15%−19,118−48.68%39,271
Bland 1,97481.64%44118.24%30.12%−1,533−63.40%2,418
Botetourt 11,82070.27%4,96929.54%320.19%−6,851−40.73%16,821
Bristol 3,09064.96%1,66034.90%70.15%−1,430−30.06%4,757
Brunswick 2,59143.66%3,33856.25%50.08%74712.59%5,934
Buchanan 4,43481.91%97117.94%80.15%−3,463−63.98%5,413
Buckingham 3,58659.22%2,45640.56%130.21%−1,130−18.66%6,055
Buena Vista 1,39266.38%69633.19%90.43%−696−33.19%2,097
Campbell 16,87873.25%6,13026.60%340.15%−10,748−46.65%23,042
Caroline 6,68049.72%6,73350.11%230.17%530.39%13,436
Carroll 8,88978.33%2,43321.44%260.23%−6,456−56.89%11,348
Charles City 1,48542.53%2,00257.33%50.14%51714.81%3,492
Charlotte 3,15967.07%1,54532.80%60.13%−1,614−34.27%4,710
Charlottesville 2,05610.88%16,79988.93%350.19%14,74378.05%18,890
Chesapeake 42,14743.77%53,97156.06%1640.17%11,82412.28%96,282
Chesterfield 70,02140.97%100,59558.86%2940.17%30,57417.89%170,910
Clarke 4,22255.34%3,38944.42%180.24%−833−10.92%7,629
Colonial Heights 4,09262.12%2,47437.56%210.32%−1,618−24.56%6,587
Covington 99959.57%67840.43%00.00%−321−19.14%1,677
Craig 1,80679.25%46720.49%60.26%−1,339−58.75%2,279
Culpeper 12,59257.66%9,21442.19%330.15%−3,378−15.47%21,839
Cumberland 2,60859.03%1,80240.79%80.18%−806−18.24%4,418
Danville 4,59237.34%7,67862.43%290.24%3,08625.09%12,299
Dickenson 3,42776.80%1,02823.04%70.16%−2,399−53.77%4,462
Dinwiddie 7,02858.19%5,03141.65%190.16%−1,997−16.53%12,078
Emporia 54432.65%1,11967.17%30.18%57534.51%1,666
Essex 2,57252.82%2,28947.01%80.16%−283−5.81%4,869
Fairfax City 2,84727.28%7,55272.37%360.34%4,70545.09%10,435
Fairfax County 116,05325.95%329,97773.78%1,2220.27%213,92447.83%447,252
Falls Church 1,18115.54%6,40784.30%120.16%5,22668.76%7,600
Fauquier 19,89457.55%14,61042.27%620.18%−5,284−15.29%34,566
Floyd 4,80664.73%2,60335.06%160.22%−2,203−29.67%7,425
Fluvanna 6,71849.95%6,71249.91%190.14%−6−0.04%13,449
Franklin City 1,08436.93%1,84963.00%20.07%76526.06%2,935
Franklin County 16,31770.37%6,83629.48%360.16%−9,481−40.89%23,189
Frederick 23,13059.32%15,80940.55%510.13%−7,321−18.78%38,990
Fredericksburg 2,94327.93%7,56171.76%330.31%4,61843.83%10,537
Galax 1,28468.23%59731.72%10.05%−687−36.50%1,882
Giles 4,98373.48%1,78226.28%160.24%−3,201−47.21%6,781
Gloucester 11,39965.73%5,91234.09%300.17%−5,487−31.64%17,341
Goochland 9,72656.91%7,33942.95%240.14%−2,387−13.97%17,089
Grayson 4,61478.35%1,26421.46%110.19%−3,350−56.89%5,889
Greene 5,45857.39%4,03642.44%160.17%−1,422−14.95%9,510
Greensville 1,42742.76%1,90257.00%80.24%47514.23%3,337
Halifax 8,02760.26%5,27239.58%220.17%−2,755−20.68%13,321
Hampton 12,10325.58%35,12974.23%910.19%23,02648.66%47,323
Hanover 36,27860.10%23,99439.75%950.16%−12,284−20.35%60,367
Harrisonburg 3,65427.70%9,51272.12%230.17%5,85844.42%13,189
Henrico 45,62730.53%103,55969.30%2600.17%57,93238.76%149,446
Henry 11,15063.71%6,32036.11%300.17%−4,830−27.60%17,500
Highland 83169.60%36230.32%10.08%−469−39.28%1,194
Hopewell 2,61039.10%4,05260.70%130.19%1,44221.60%6,675
Isle of Wight 10,93156.95%8,22742.86%370.19%−2,704−14.09%19,195
James City 19,02944.57%23,60355.28%630.15%4,57410.71%42,695
King and Queen 1,98560.50%1,29239.38%40.12%−693−21.12%3,281
King George 6,90959.33%4,71640.50%200.17%−2,193−18.83%11,645
King William 6,03366.56%3,02033.32%110.12%−3,013−33.24%9,064
Lancaster 3,28354.44%2,73445.34%130.22%−549−9.10%6,030
Lee 5,43984.13%1,01915.76%70.11%−4,420−68.37%6,465
Lexington 68631.66%1,47568.07%60.28%78936.41%2,167
Loudoun 59,27835.22%108,59464.52%4440.26%49,31629.30%168,316
Louisa 11,27959.52%7,62840.25%440.23%−3,651−19.27%18,951
Lunenburg 2,68259.61%1,80640.14%110.24%−876−19.47%4,499
Lynchburg 13,50850.41%13,23149.38%560.21%−277−1.03%26,795
Madison 4,25964.01%2,38635.86%90.14%−1,873−28.15%6,654
Manassas 4,03634.42%7,67165.42%180.15%3,63531.00%11,725
Manassas Park 1,15128.72%2,85271.16%50.12%1,70142.44%4,008
Martinsville 1,45136.35%2,53463.48%70.18%1,08327.13%3,992
Mathews 3,24267.51%1,55532.38%50.10%−1,687−35.13%4,802
Mecklenburg 7,15160.50%4,65739.40%110.09%−2,494−21.10%11,819
Middlesex 3,47361.44%2,17438.46%60.11%−1,299−22.98%5,653
Montgomery 15,22841.46%21,42858.34%760.21%6,20016.88%36,732
Nelson 3,82849.55%3,88050.23%170.22%520.67%7,725
New Kent 8,80463.28%5,08736.56%220.16%−3,717−26.72%13,913
Newport News 17,46130.91%38,93668.93%920.16%21,47538.02%56,489
Norfolk 15,50924.15%48,59975.68%1110.17%33,09051.53%64,219
Northampton 2,46944.59%3,06055.26%80.14%59110.67%5,537
Northumberland 4,13260.47%2,68539.29%160.23%−1,447−21.18%6,833
Norton 72168.34%33231.47%20.19%−389−36.87%1,055
Nottoway 3,12257.91%2,25841.88%110.20%−864−16.03%5,391
Orange 9,93857.34%7,36142.47%330.19%−2,577−14.87%17,332
Page 6,94074.39%2,36525.35%240.26%−4,575−49.04%9,329
Patrick 5,11977.42%1,48822.50%50.08%−3,631−54.92%6,612
Petersburg 1,12411.29%8,81188.46%250.25%7,68777.18%9,960
Pittsylvania 17,43970.46%7,27229.38%380.15%−10,167−41.08%24,749
Poquoson 4,38470.01%1,86229.73%160.26%−2,522−40.27%6,262
Portsmouth 8,35126.55%23,04073.25%620.20%14,68946.70%31,453
Powhatan 11,86269.57%5,16830.31%210.12%−6,694−39.26%17,051
Prince Edward 3,66849.20%3,76750.53%200.27%991.33%7,455
Prince George 7,98658.27%5,70741.64%130.09%−2,279−16.63%13,706
Prince William 54,30932.74%111,19867.03%3810.23%56,88934.29%165,888
Pulaski 8,60768.55%3,92731.28%220.18%−4,680−37.27%12,556
Radford 2,05043.68%2,63256.08%110.23%58212.40%4,693
Rappahannock 2,23155.10%1,81244.75%60.15%−419−10.35%4,049
Richmond City 11,70713.09%77,51786.68%2100.23%65,81073.58%89,434
Richmond County 1,99763.88%1,12435.96%50.16%−873−27.93%3,126
Roanoke City 10,15332.82%20,70066.91%830.27%10,54734.09%30,936
Roanoke County 24,72857.66%18,06242.12%970.23%−6,666−15.54%42,887
Rockbridge 6,59964.93%3,55735.00%70.07%−3,042−29.93%10,163
Rockingham 24,49867.68%11,62232.11%760.21%−12,876−35.57%36,196
Russell 7,26881.13%1,67318.68%170.19%−5,595−62.46%8,958
Salem 5,28255.81%4,15043.85%320.34%−1,132−11.96%9,464
Scott 6,10383.00%1,23516.80%150.20%−4,868−66.20%7,353
Shenandoah 12,48868.53%5,69831.27%370.20%−6,790−37.26%18,223
Smyth 7,71276.90%2,29822.92%180.18%−5,414−53.99%10,028
Southampton 4,49260.34%2,94539.56%80.11%−1,547−20.78%7,445
Spotsylvania 29,01548.47%30,74851.36%1040.17%1,7332.89%59,867
Stafford 27,77443.94%35,32755.88%1150.18%7,55311.95%63,216
Staunton 4,23639.10%6,58060.73%180.17%2,34421.64%10,834
Suffolk 15,93538.20%25,69661.60%800.19%9,76123.40%41,711
Surry 1,70747.63%1,87352.26%40.11%1664.63%3,584
Sussex 1,80246.91%2,03552.98%40.10%2336.07%3,841
Tazewell 10,40782.10%2,24817.73%210.17%−8,159−64.37%12,676
Virginia Beach 75,01344.22%94,33955.62%2690.16%19,32611.39%169,621
Warren 10,43364.29%5,75735.47%390.24%−4,676−28.81%16,229
Washington 15,61474.21%5,38225.58%430.20%−10,232−48.63%21,039
Waynesboro 4,03747.46%4,45952.42%110.13%4224.96%8,507
Westmoreland 4,39654.02%3,73345.88%80.10%−663−8.15%8,137
Williamsburg 1,64724.51%5,06375.35%90.13%3,41650.84%6,719
Winchester 3,48539.52%5,31860.30%160.18%1,83320.78%8,819
Wise 8,74479.15%2,28120.65%220.20%−6,463−58.50%11,047
Wythe 8,42676.29%2,59423.49%240.22%−5,832−52.81%11,044
York 15,68449.79%15,76950.06%470.15%850.27%31,500
Totals1,449,41042.24%1,975,35457.56%6,8950.20%525,94415.33%3,431,659

Counties and independent cities that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Spanberger won eight of 11 congressional districts, including two held by Republicans. [175]

The 1st district, represented by Republican Rob Wittman since 2007, is generally not competitive. Spanberger became the first Democratic statewide candidate to win the district since 2008.

DistrictEarle-SearsSpanbergerRepresentative
1st 49%51% Rob Wittman
2nd 46%54% Jen Kiggans
3rd 28%72% Bobby Scott
4th 30%70% Jennifer McClellan
5th 54%46% John McGuire
6th 59%41% Ben Cline
7th 42%57% Eugene Vindman
8th 20%80% Don Beyer
9th 69%31% Morgan Griffith
10th 40%60% Suhas Subramanyam
11th 26%73% James Walkinshaw

Analysis

Political analysts have described the election as a popularity indicator of the second presidency of Donald Trump in the state. [176] [177]

Spanberger's victory was attributed to anger in Northern Virginia over the mass layoffs of federal workers ordered by the Department of Government Efficiency led by Elon Musk as part of President Donald Trump's efforts to downsize the federal government. Additionally, many furloughed federal workers were energized by the ongoing federal government shutdown. Discontentment with the U.S. economy under Trump, which many Virginians blamed on his tariff policies, also played a factor in motivating Spanberger voters. [178]

Spanberger set a record for most votes received by a gubernatorial candidate in Virginia.

This is the first time since 1985 that a Democrat carried Spotsylvania County, a notable Republican stronghold, as well as Waynesboro City. Stafford County also flipped for the first time since 1985, though Harris won Stafford in 2024. Nelson County and Caroline County also voted Democratic for the first time since 2013. Earle-Sears narrowly retained Lynchburg, home to the evangelical Christian Liberty University, supported by a strong backing from white evangelical Christians, 80% of whom voted for her according to a CNN exit poll. [179] The city had narrowly flipped to Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election before returning to a more comfortable margin for Donald Trump in 2024.

Spanberger’s closest victory was in York County (home to Yorktown, Virginia), which voted Democratic for the first time since 1965. York has not voted Democratic for president since 1964. Kamala Harris did win 46% in York in 2024, losing the county by 6%, the best performance in the county since 1964. [180]

With the exception of the 2013 election, Virginia has elected a governor of the opposite party of the sitting president of the United States in every election since 1977. [181] According to a CNN exit poll, Trump had just a 39% job approval rating among the general electorate in Virginia. Spanberger won 99% of Kamala Harris's voters and 7% of Trump's 2024 voters. [182]

CNN exit poll

2025 Virginia gubernatorial election voter demographics (CNN) [182]
Demographic subgroupSpanbergerEarle-Sears% of
total vote
Ideology
Liberals 96433
Moderates 693133
Conservatives 109035
Party
Democrats 99136
Republicans 79331
Independents 594033
Donald Trump job approval
Approve69439
Disapprove92759
Most important issue facing Virginia
Economy633648
Health care811821
Education554511
Immigration118911
2024 presidential vote
Kamala Harris 99151
Donald Trump 79342
Another candidate61362
Did not vote61393
Gender
Men485147
Women653553
Income
$200,000 or more643614
$100,000-$199,999514828
$50,000-$99,999584231
Less than $50,000633726
Race/ethnicity
White 475371
Asian 80204
Latino 67335
Black 93716
White born-again or evangelical Christian?
Yes208028
No712972
Race by gender
White men386134
White women544636
Black men89117
Black women9639
Latino men53472
Latina women78222
All other voters73279
Age
18–29 years old702913
30–44 years old623820
45-64 years old554535
65 and older514932
Area type
Urban663419
Suburban594157
Rural465424
Education
College graduate633652
No college degree504948
Education by race
White college graduates574338
Non-white college graduates801914
Whites without college346633
Non-whites without college851515
Education by gender and race
White women with college degrees653520
White women without college degrees396016
White men with college degrees485218
White men without college degrees297117
Voters of color831730
Educational attainment
Advanced degree 683223
Bachelor's degree604029
Associate's degree534710
Some college554517
Never attended college465421

See also

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ↑ Held office as a Republican
  3. ↑ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  4. ↑ Donna Charles with 5%
  5. 1 2 3 4 5 Donna Charles with 1%
  6. ↑ "Would not vote" with 0%
  7. ↑ Donna Charles with 4%
  8. ↑ "Refused" with 2%; "Some other candidate" with 1%
  9. ↑ "Refused" with 1%; Donna Charles with 0%
  10. ↑ "Neither" and "Would not vote" with 1%
  11. ↑ "Neither" with 3%; "Would not vote" with 2%
  12. 1 2 3 4 Donna Charles with 2%
  13. ↑ "None of these" with 1%
  14. ↑ "Neither" and "Would not vote" with 2%
  15. ↑ "Other" with 1%
  16. 1 2 "Wouldn't vote" with 1%; "Someone else" with 1%
  17. ↑ Donna Charles with 3%
  18. ↑ "Some other candidate" with 1%
  19. ↑ Donna Charles with 8%
  20. ↑ "Some other candidate" with 3%
  21. ↑ Denver Riggleman with 7%
  22. 1 2 "Someone else" with 4%
  23. ↑ "Someone else" with 5%
  24. ↑ "Wouldn't vote" with 4%; "Someone else" with 1%
  25. ↑ "Someone else" with 2%. "Don't know/Refused" with 4%
  26. ↑ "None / Would not vote" with 5%; "Other candidate" with 4%; "Refused" with 1%

Partisan clients

  1. ↑ Poll sponsored by Stoney's campaign
  2. 1 2 3 Poll sponsored by The Hill
  3. ↑ Poll sponsored by Red Eagle Politics, a conservative content creator
  4. ↑ Poll commissioned by the Democratic Attorneys General Association
  5. ↑ Poll commissioned by the Democratic Governors Association, which supports Spanberger
  6. ↑ Poll sponsored by John Reid's campaign for LT Gov
  7. ↑ Poll sponsored by the Virginia Project
  8. 1 2 3 Poll sponsored by Founders Insight
  9. ↑ Poll sponsored by Virginia FREE
  10. ↑ Poll sponsored by the Northern Virginia Republican Business Forum
  11. 1 2 Poll sponsored by the University of Mary Washington

References

  1. ↑ "Election Results". enr.elections.virginia.gov.
  2. ↑ Serre, Jared (May 7, 2025). "SCOOP: State Sen. Stella Pekarsky joins race to replace Rep. Gerry Connolly". FFX Now. Local News Now LLC. Retrieved May 25, 2025.
  3. ↑ "Live election results: 2020 Virginia results". www.politico.com. Retrieved April 20, 2023.
  4. ↑ Oliver, Ned (March 3, 2021). "Democrats have controlled Virginia government for two years. Here's what they've done". Virginia Mercury. Retrieved April 20, 2023.
  5. ↑ "GOP sweeps statewide races with 2 down-ballot wins". AP News. November 2, 2021. Retrieved April 20, 2023.
  6. ↑ Mutnick, Ally (February 12, 2025). "How Trump's assault on bureaucracy could rock Virginia elections". Politico . Retrieved February 12, 2025. The off-year races are often a bellwether for the national mood a year before the midterms.
  7. ↑ Moreno, Sabrina (August 14, 2025). "The 3 issues deciding Virginia's governor's race". Axios. Retrieved August 27, 2025.
  8. ↑ Yancey, Dwayne (November 18, 2024). "Miyares to seek re-election; 2025 governor's race now appears set". CardinalNews.com. Retrieved February 28, 2025.
  9. ↑ Schmidt, Markus (February 27, 2025). "Earle-Sears' uncontested run ends as rivals enter Virginia GOP primary for governor". CBS19News.com. Retrieved February 28, 2025.
  10. ↑ Englander, Tyler (February 27, 2025). "Is Lieutenant Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears still the GOP favorite after governor's race shakeup?". WAVY.com. Retrieved February 28, 2025.
  11. ↑ Jarvis, Brandon (April 5, 2025). "Sears is the Republican nominee for governor". Virginia Scope. Retrieved April 5, 2025.
  12. ↑ Bianco, Ali (April 5, 2025). "Virginia's bellwether governor race is set". Politico . Retrieved April 5, 2025.
  13. 1 2 Carey, Julie (April 7, 2025). "Earle-Sears vs. Spanberger: Virginia governor's race set without "Trump in heels", ex-delegate". NBC Washington. Retrieved May 23, 2025.
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  15. ↑ Andrew Solender [@andrewsolender] (December 4, 2024). "Virginia Rep. Rob Wittman is "not considering a run for Governor in 2025", his campaign tells me. "Congressman Wittman is looking forward to serving his constituents in the 119th Congress and running for re-election to Congress in 2026."" (Tweet). Retrieved December 4, 2024– via Twitter.
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  23. ↑ Collette, Christopher (April 3, 2025). "Spanberger confirmed to be Democratic nominee for Virginia governor". WVEC . Retrieved April 3, 2025.
  24. ↑ Vozzella, Laura (April 22, 2024). "Richmond Mayor Stoney drops Va. governor bid, seeks lt. governor post". The Washington Post . Retrieved April 23, 2024.
  25. ↑ Martz, Michael (March 1, 2025). "Bobby Scott hints he's not running for Virginia governor". Richmond Times-Dispatch . Retrieved March 28, 2025.
  26. ↑ Vozzella, Laura (December 13, 2024). "Rep. Bobby Scott considers challenging Spanberger in Va. governor primary". The Washington Post . Retrieved December 14, 2024.
  27. ↑ Montellaro, Zach (December 5, 2023). "McAuliffe backs Richmond Mayor Stoney in 2025 Virginia governor race". Politico . Retrieved December 5, 2023.
  28. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Feld, Lowell (December 4, 2023). "Video: Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney Launches Campaign for Virginia Governor". Blue Virginia. Retrieved December 6, 2023.
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  30. ↑ "Levar Stoney for Governor Campaign "Internal" Poll Finds Initial 44%–11% Lead for Abigail Spanberger Shrinks to 34%–30% ("a near dead heat") After Positive Info Provided About Both Candidates". Blue Virginia. April 9, 2024. Retrieved March 20, 2025.
  31. ↑ "State of the Commonwealth 2024". Christopher Newport University. January 24, 2024.
  32. ↑ Rudisill, Michael (October 12, 2025). "Donna Charles ends her campaign for Governor of Virginia, endorses Abigail Spanberger". WAVY. Retrieved October 13, 2025.
  33. ↑ "Virginia election winners break race and gender barriers amid national scrutiny on diversity". WTOP News. November 5, 2025.
  34. ↑ "Republican Winsome Earle-Sears shakes up campaign staff in Virginia governor's race". NBC News. July 17, 2025. Retrieved August 27, 2025.
  35. ↑ Jallad, Mariah; Nadeau, Ryan; Mariah Jallad, Ryan Nadeau (August 24, 2025). "Virginia leaders condemn racist sign targeting Winsome Earle-Sears". WAVY.com. Retrieved August 27, 2025.
  36. ↑ Cain, Andrew (August 24, 2025). "Both parties criticize a sign targeting Winsome Earle-Sears as racist". The Virginian-Pilot. Retrieved August 27, 2025.
  37. ↑ OLIVIA DIAZ; MIKE CATALINI (October 7, 2025). "Democrats in governors races see political opportunity amid government shutdown". Times Union. Retrieved October 8, 2025.
  38. ↑ Phillip M. Bailey; Karissa Waddick. "Could the federal shutdown and DOGE cuts tip Virginia's governor's race?". USA TODAY. Retrieved October 8, 2025.
  39. ↑ "Earle-Sears dodges questions about Trump administration layoffs of federal workers". The Virginia Independent. October 3, 2025. Retrieved October 8, 2025.
  40. ↑ Manchester, Julia (October 8, 2025). "Earle-Sears places $1M ad buy in wake of Jones scandal". The Hill . Retrieved October 13, 2025.
  41. ↑ Bailey, Phillip M. "'Sick' texts from Democratic AG candidate could threaten Spanberger chances in Virginia". USA TODAY. Retrieved October 8, 2025.
  42. ↑ David Wright; Eva McKend (October 3, 2025). "Republicans double down on trans issues as a wedge with Virginia voters". CNN. Retrieved October 11, 2025.
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  45. ↑ "Upcoming Elections". Virginia Department of Elections. Retrieved September 10, 2025.
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  47. ↑ "Virginia governor nominees face-off in only debate before election day". WJLA.com. October 9, 2025. Archived from the original on October 10, 2025. Retrieved October 9, 2025.
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  59. 1 2 Edelman, Adam (October 26, 2025). "Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro hits the trail for Abigail Spanberger in the closing stretch of the Virginia governor's race". NBC News . Retrieved November 3, 2025.
  60. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 "Lt. Governor Sears Announces Run for Governor in Virginia Beach… and Mentions Trump Twice". Black Virginia News. September 6, 2024. Retrieved August 20, 2025.
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  63. ↑ Woods, Charlotte (August 15, 2025). "In Chesterfield, Earle-Sears slams Spanberger, revives Youngkin's winning campaign slogans". Virginia Mercury. Retrieved August 19, 2025.
  64. ↑ @sarahhuckabee (November 4, 2025). "Over the last 4 years, Virginia has grown stronger under Gov. @GlennYoungkin. Vote for @winwithwinsome to build on that momentum and create a Commonwealth Virginians deserve" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  65. ↑ Diaz, Olivia (November 18, 2024). "Virginia Attorney General Jason Miyares will seek re-election, quelling talk of a gubernatorial bid". The Associated Press . Retrieved November 18, 2024.
  66. ↑ "Candidates for Virginia governor want to make history, but voters are fatigued". VPM. January 28, 2025. Retrieved August 19, 2025.
  67. ↑ LaRoue, Jimmy (September 18, 2025). "Earle-Sears wins endorsements of 81 Virginia sheriffs". WAVY 10. Retrieved October 1, 2025.
  68. ↑ @ingrahamangle (November 4, 2025). "The choice in Virginia should be obvious to anyone who doesn't believe a transgender biological man should be in girls' or women's spaces. Vote TODAY for Winsome Sears for Governor and Jason Miyares for Attorney General. @winwithwinsome @JasonMiyaresVA" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  69. ↑ @meghanmccain (October 30, 2025). "Had so much fun campaigning with Attorney General @JasonMiyaresVA, @JohnReid4VA, & Terry Sears for @winwithwinsome in Fredericksburg, Virginia this morning! Join us next Tuesday at the polls and vote for the incredible patriot Winsome Sears for Governor!" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
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  73. ↑ "The National Right to Life Committee endorses the following candidates in vitally important races in Virginia!" (PDF). National Right to Life Committee. Retrieved October 1, 2025.
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  82. 1 2 Woodall, Hunter (September 17, 2025). "Abigail Spanberger gets show of support from 2 former GOP lawmakers in bid to be Virginia governor". CBS News . Retrieved September 17, 2025.
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