| |||||||||||||||||
| Turnout | 54.04% | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| |||||||||||||||||
Spanberger: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Earle-Sears: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 50% No votes | |||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||
| Elections in Virginia |
|---|
| |
The 2025 Virginia gubernatorial election was held on November 4, 2025, to elect the next governor of Virginia. The election was concurrent with other elections for Virginia's statewide offices, the House of Delegates, and other local elections. Incumbent Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin was ineligible to run for re-election, as the Constitution of Virginia prohibits its governors from serving consecutive terms.
Neither former Democratic U.S. Representative Abigail Spanberger nor Republican Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears received opposition in their primaries, which led to an earlier campaign. In early April 2025, Spanberger and Earle-Sears were confirmed as the major party nominees. [2] [3] [4] Spanberger defeated Earle-Sears by 527,271 votes — the largest gubernatorial margin for either party since the 2009 Virginia gubernatorial election. She won by approximately fifteen points, which was considered a landslide. [5] [6]
In the aftermath of the 2024 Presidential Election, President Trump and Elon Musk enacted the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which laid off many federal workers. The 2025 October federal government shutdown further affected federal workers, while backlash was directed toward the Republican Party and Donald Trump during the shutdown. [7] [8] The issues surrounding federal workers helped boost Spanberger in Northern Virginia which contributed to her large victory margin due to President Trump's and Republican unpopularity on the issue. [9]
Most electoral pundits saw the election as a referendum on President Trump ahead of the 2026 midterms. [2] Spanberger's campaign ran strongly on affordability and the economy which was considered the top issue for voters. In contrast, Earle-Sears focused heavily on transgender issues. [10] Earle-Sears' campaign was unable to turn out low-propensity voters and retain Trump 2024 voters, while Spanberger retained most Harris 2024 voters and did well with the college-educated demographic. [11] [12] According to the CNN exit poll, President Trump held a -20 net approval rating in the state with 39% job approval: Spanberger won 92% of voters who disapproved of Trump, while she won first-time and third-party voters comfortably. In addition, Spanberger won Latino voters by 34 points and did well with Black and Asian American voters when Trump made significant improvements with minorities in the 2024 Presidential Election and in the state itself. [13] [14] Trump's unpopularity on the economy, immigration, and other issues hurt his standing with voters in Virginia. [15] [16]
On Election Day, Spanberger won by 15.36% points which was an improvement from Harris' 5.78% win in the 2024 Presidential Election in Virginia. Her victory margin outperformed expectations from polls who expected Spanberger to win more modestly. [17] Spanberger was elected the first female governor in the state's history, winning the largest gubernatorial margin for Democrats since the 1961 Virginia gubernatorial election. Her final vote margin is about 2 million votes, which is the largest gubernatorial vote total in Virginia's history. She is scheduled to be sworn in the 75th governor of Virginia on January 17, 2026. [18] [19]
Virginia is considered to be a moderately blue state at the federal level, which was carried by Kamala Harris by about six percentage points in the 2024 presidential election, and the last time a Republican won a federal statewide race was in the 2004 presidential election. Joe Biden won Virginia by ten percentage points in the 2020. Democrats control both U.S. Senate seats and the minimum majority in the U.S. House of Representatives and both houses of the Virginia General Assembly. [20]
From May 21 until September 10, 2025, Virginia's 11th congressional district was vacant following the death of Democratic representative Gerry Connolly. This temporarily gave Virginia a split House delegation between Democrats and Republicans until Democrat James Walkinshaw won the special election on September 9. [21] However, statewide offices tend to be more competitive as Republicans won all three statewide constitutional offices in the 2021 elections, all of which were up for election in 2025. [22] [23] [24]
President Trump's efforts to shrink the federal workforce were considered to be a potential issue in the election, given that many federal workers reside in Northern Virginia. [7] A July 2025 Virginia Commonwealth University poll found that the most important issues for voters in the campaign were the economy (29%), immigration (14%) and abortion (14%). [25]
Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears was initially viewed as the presumptive Republican nominee for governor. [26] After poor initial polling, and growing dissatisfaction with the lieutenant governor in factions of the party, Earle-Sears drew two challengers: former state senator Amanda Chase and former state delegate Dave LaRock. Both challengers positioned themselves as more loyal to President Donald Trump. [27] [28] Ultimately, neither of them gathered the required signatures to be on the ballot, and Earle-Sears was nominated unopposed. [29]
State senators
| Primary campaign finance activity through March 31, 2025 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Winsome Earle-Sears | $5,677,456 | $1,630,867 | $4,046,590 |
| Amanda Chase (failed to qualify) | $34,835 | $51,204 | $1,538 |
| Dave LaRock (failed to qualify) | $26,874 | $25,813 | $1,060 |
| Source: Virginia Public Access Project [37] | |||
On November 13, 2023, U.S. representative Abigail Spanberger declared her candidacy for governor – she decided not to run for reelection to the House of Representatives in 2024. [38] In 2020, she received advice from then-governor Ralph Northam to someday run for governor. [39]
On December 4, 2023, former mayor of Richmond, Levar Stoney declared his candidacy for governor one month after Spanberger announced her bid. He was considered the underdog in primary polls because of low statewide name recognition. [40] [41] On April 22, 2024 – before the filing deadline in April 2025 – Stoney withdrew from the race to avoid the potentially complicated primary. He instead, unsuccessfully, sought to be the Democratic nominee for Lieutenant Governor in the June Democratic primary. [42] [43]
In December 2023, U.S. Representative Bobby Scott, explored the possibility to run for governor despite doubt from "top Democratic sources" for his announcement to do so. There was concern from senior Virginia Democrats over Spanberger's ability to win over black voters after Republican Donald Trump made inroads with minorities in the 2024 Election – especially with Earle-Sears expected to be the Republican nominee. [44] In late February, Scott hinted he would not run for governor. [45] Ultimately, he did not file an official candidacy before the deadline.
On April 3, 2025, Spanberger became the official Democratic nominee for governor after no other candidate filed their candidacy before the deadline on April 4, 2025. This effectively canceled the primary election originally scheduled for June 17, 2025. [3]
State legislators
State officials
State legislators
Local officials
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [a] | Margin of error | Abigail Spanberger | Levar Stoney | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stoney withdraws from the race | ||||||
| Public Policy Polling (D) [50] [A] | March 25–26, 2024 | 734 (LV) | — | 44% | 11% | 45% |
| Christopher Newport University [41] | January 11–16, 2024 | 1000 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 52% | 8% | 40% |
| Primary campaign finance activity through March 31, 2025 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Abigail Spanberger | $16,301,998 | $5,297,212 | $11,004,790 |
| Source: Virginia Public Access Project [37] | |||
This election was the first gubernatorial election in Virginia history in which both major party nominees were female. [52]
In mid-July, Earle-Sears changed campaign managers after trailing Spanberger in fundraising and polling. [53] On August 21, an opponent of Earle-Sears held up a sign outside her speech at an Arlington County School Board meeting stating "Hey Winsome, if trans [ sic ] can't share your bathroom, then Blacks can't share my water fountain", which received widespread attention and was condemned by both Earle-Sears and Spanberger. [54] [55]
The impact of the Department of Government Efficiency and Trump's federal mass layoffs reinforced the economy as the top issue for voters, particularly during the October federal government shutdown. [56] [8] During an interview on September 30 with Meet the Press , Earle-Sears did not answer whether she would ask Trump not to fire any more federal workers. [57]
In October 2025, following messages revealed by the National Review of Jay Jones encouraging political violence towards former Virginia Speaker of the House Todd Gilbert, Spanberger and Ghazala Hashmi called for Jones to apologize and take full responsibility for his messages. Governor Glenn Youngkin called for both of them to call for Jay Jones to step down as a candidate, though neither did. Earle-Sears spent $1 million on ads in the wake of the scandal tying Jones to Spanberger. [58] [59]
Throughout the campaign, Earle-Sears mostly ran campaign attack ads on Spanberger on transgender issues, replicating the attack ads against Kamala Harris for being "for they/them" in the 2024 United States presidential election, despite top election issues being the economy, affordability, threats against democracy and the federal workforce. [60] [61] By contrast, the Spanberger campaign attacked Earle-Sears' stance on abortion and attempted to tie her closely to President Trump.[ citation needed ]
In October 2025, during a football game at James Madison University, a fan hurled a racist remark at Earle-Sears, telling her to "go back to Haiti." The incident was quickly condemned and the fan was suspended from attending all future sporting events. [62]
The in-person early voting period ran from September 19 to November 1, 2025. [63]
Spanberger and Earle-Sears met on October 9, 2025 at Norfolk State University for their one televised debate. [64] Topics discussed during the debate included the Virginia car tax, text messages sent by Jay Jones, the federal government shutdown, affordability, energy and data centers, parents' roles in education, policies relating to transgender students in K-12 schools, reproductive rights, and policies related to marijuana. [65] During the debate, Sears pressed on Spanberger to call for Jones to exit the race and whether she still endorses Jones. [66] When asked on whether she would tell Trump to reopen the government, Sears accused Spanberger of "politicizing" the 2025 federal mass firings by the Trump administration. Spanberger claimed that Sears had previously stated that same-sex couples should not be allowed to marry and that firing employees for being gay was acceptable. After both claims, Sears interrupted Spanberger by adding "that's not discrimination". [66] [67] When asked about these comments in an interview on October 28, she claimed that she had misspoken and that she meant to say that she had not personally discriminated against gay people in that manner. [68]
| No. | Date | Host | Moderators | Link | Republican | Democratic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn | ||||||
| Earle-Sears | Spanberger | |||||
| 1 | October 9, 2025 | WAVY-TV Norfolk State University | Deanna Albrittin Tom Schaad | [69] | P | P |
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report [70] | Likely D (flip) | September 11, 2025 |
| Inside Elections [71] | Lean D (flip) | August 28, 2025 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball [72] | Likely D (flip) | September 4, 2025 |
| Race to the WH [73] | Safe D (flip) | October 26, 2025 |
| State Navigate [74] | Solid D (flip) | August 22, 2025 |
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Abigail Spanberger (D) | Winsome Earle-Sears (R) | Other/Undecided [c] | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Decision Desk HQ [124] | through November 3, 2025 | November 3, 2025 | 52.3% | 43.1% | 4.6% | Spanberger +9.2% |
| FiftyPlusOne [125] | through November 3, 2025 | November 3, 2025 | 53.1% | 42.4% | 4.5% | Spanberger +10.7% |
| Race to the WH [126] | through November 3, 2025 | November 4, 2025 | 52.3% | 42.8% | 4.9% | Spanberger +9.5% |
| RealClearPolitics [127] | October 16 – November 3, 2025 | November 3, 2025 | 52.9% | 42.7% | 4.4% | Spanberger +10.2% |
| VoteHub [128] | through November 3, 2025 | November 3, 2025 | 52.1% | 42.9% | 5.0% | Spanberger +9.2% |
| Average | 52.5% | 42.8% | 4.7% | Spanberger +9.7% | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [a] | Margin of error | Winsome Earle-Sears (R) | Abigail Spanberger (D) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quantus Insights (R) [129] | November 3, 2025 | 1,201 (LV) | ± 2.7% | 44% | 53% | 1% | 2% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R) [130] | November 2–3, 2025 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 40% | 50% | 5% [d] | 5% |
| Research Co. [131] | November 2–3, 2025 | 423 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 46% | 54% | – | – |
| 450 (LV) | 43% | 51% | – | 6% | |||
| The Trafalgar Group (R) [132] | November 1–2, 2025 | 1,057 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 43% | 50% | 1% [e] | 6% |
| Emerson College [133] [B] | October 30–31, 2025 | 880 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 44% | 55% | 0% | 1% |
| Echelon Insights [134] | October 28–31, 2025 | 606 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 43% | 55% | – | 2% |
| AtlasIntel [135] | October 25–30, 2025 | 1,325 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 54% | 0% [f] | 1% |
| SoCal Strategies (R) [136] [C] | October 28–29, 2025 | 800 (LV) | – | 43% | 53% | – | 4% |
| State Navigate [137] | October 26–28, 2025 | 614 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 54% | – | 5% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R)/ The Trafalgar Group (R) [138] | October 27–28, 2025 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 42% | 46% | 4% [g] | 8% |
| Roanoke College [139] | October 22–27, 2025 | 1,041 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 41% | 51% | 3% [h] | 5% |
| YouGov [140] | October 17–28, 2025 | 1,179 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 57% | 2% | – |
| 41% | 55% | 0% | 4% | ||||
| A2 Insights [141] | October 24–26, 2025 | 776 (LV) | – | 46% | 54% | – | 1% |
| Christopher Newport University [142] | October 21–23, 2025 | 803 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 43% | 50% | – | 6% |
| Suffolk University [143] | October 19–21, 2025 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 43% | 52% | 1% [i] | 4% |
| Quantus Insights (R) [144] | October 19–20, 2025 | 1,302 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 46% | 51% | 1% | 2% |
| State Navigate [145] | October 17–20, 2025 | 694 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 55% | – | 3% |
| The Washington Post/Schar School [146] | October 16–20, 2025 | 927 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 42% | 54% | 2% [j] | 2% |
| 927 (RV) | 40% | 53% | 5% [k] | 2% | |||
| Kaplan Strategies (R) [147] | October 16–18, 2025 | 556 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 41% | 51% | – | 7% |
| co/efficient (R) [148] | October 15–17, 2025 | 937 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 44% | 49% | 1% [e] | 6% |
| Clarity Campaign Labs (D) [149] [D] | October 14–17, 2025 | 958 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 43% | 53% | – | 4% |
| The Trafalgar Group (R)/ InsiderAdvantage (R) [150] | October 13–15, 2025 | 1,039 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 45% | 47% | 1% [e] | 6% |
| Virginia Commonwealth University [151] | October 6–14, 2025 | 842 (A) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 49% | – | 9% |
| The Trafalgar Group (R) [152] | October 8–10, 2025 | 1,034 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 45% | 48% | 2% [l] | 6% |
| Public Policy Polling (D) [153] [E] | October 7–8, 2025 | 558 (RV) | – | 43% | 52% | – | 5% |
| Cygnal (R) [154] | October 6–7, 2025 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 49% | – | 6% |
| Christopher Newport University [155] | September 29 – October 1, 2025 | 805 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 42% | 52% | – | 6% |
| The Trafalgar Group (R) [156] | September 29 – October 1, 2025 | 1,034 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 42% | 47% | 2% [l] | 9% |
| Emerson College [157] [B] | September 28–29, 2025 | 725 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 42% | 52% | – | 5% |
| The Washington Post/Schar School [158] | September 25–29, 2025 | 1,002 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 43% | 55% | 1% [m] | 2% |
| 1,002 (RV) | 40% | 53% | 4% [n] | 3% | |||
| A2 Insights [159] | September 16–28, 2025 | 771 (LV) | – | 45% | 48% | 1% [o] | 6% |
| co/efficient (R) [160] | September 22–23, 2025 | 1,024 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 43% | 49% | 1% [e] | 7% |
| OnMessage Inc. (R) [161] | September 15–18, 2025 | 800 (V) | ± 3.5% | 45% | 50% | – | 5% |
| Christopher Newport University [162] | September 8–14, 2025 | 808 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 40% | 52% | – | 8% |
| Cygnal (R) [154] | September 7, 2025 | – (V) | – | 43% | 50% | – | 7% |
| Pulse Decision Science (R) [163] [F] | September 3–5, 2025 | 512 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 43% | 48% | 1% [e] | 8% |
| SoCal Strategies (R) [164] [G] | August 31 – September 1, 2025 | 700 (LV) | – | 41% | 53% | – | 6% |
| Virginia Commonwealth University [165] | August 18–28, 2025 | 764 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 40% | 49% | 2% [p] | 11% |
| co/efficient (R) [166] | August 23–26, 2025 | 1,025 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 43% | 48% | 3% [q] | 7% |
| Roanoke College [167] [168] | August 11–15, 2025 | 702 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 39% | 46% | 1% [r] | 14% |
| Wick Insights [169] | July 9–11, 2025 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 50% | 2% [l] | 8% |
| American Directions Research Group/AARP [170] | June 25 – July 8, 2025 | 1,001 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 34% | 49% | 8% [s] | 9% |
| Virginia Commonwealth University [171] | June 19–July 3, 2025 | 806 (A) | ± 4.7% | 37% | 49% | 2% [p] | 12% |
| co/efficient (R) [172] [H] | June 8–10, 2025 | 1,127 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 43% | 46% | 2% [l] | 9% |
| Roanoke College [173] [174] | May 12–19, 2025 | 609 (RV) | ± 5.3% | 26% | 43% | 3% [t] | 28% |
| Pantheon Insight/HarrisX [175] [I] | May 9–13, 2025 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 48% | 52% | – | – |
| 45% | 48% | 7% [u] | – | ||||
| Cygnal (R) [176] | February 26–28, 2025 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 40% | 46% | – | 14% |
| Roanoke College [177] | February 17–20, 2025 | 690 (RV) | ± 4.7% | 24% | 39% | 4% [v] | 33% |
| co/efficient (R) [178] [J] | January 18–20, 2025 | 867 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 40% | 40% | 5% [w] | 15% |
| Virginia Commonwealth University [179] | December 18, 2024 – January 15, 2025 | 806 (A) | ± 4.7% | 34% | 44% | 5% [x] | 17% |
| Christopher Newport University [180] | January 6–13, 2025 | 806 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 39% | 44% | 6% [y] | 12% |
| Emerson College [181] [B] | January 6–8, 2025 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 42% | 4% [v] | 13% |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy [182] | December 15–19, 2024 | 625 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 47% | – | 9% |
| Research America Inc. [183] [K] | September 3–9, 2024 | 1,000 (A) | ± 3.1% | 39% | 39% | 10% [z] | 12% |
| co/efficient (R) [184] [H] | September 7–10, 2023 | 834 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 26% | 27% | – | 47% |
Winsome Earle-Sears vs. Bobby Scott
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Winsome Earle-Sears (R) | Bobby Scott (D) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy [182] | December 15–19, 2024 | 625 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 44% | 10% |
Jason Miyares vs. Abigail Spanberger
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [a] | Margin of error | Jason Miyares (R) | Abigail Spanberger (D) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research America Inc. [183] [K] | September 3–9, 2024 | 1,000 (A) | ± 3.1% | 39% | 40% | 12% |
| co/efficient (R) [184] [H] | September 7–10, 2023 | 834 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 22% | 26% | 52% |
On November 4, 2025, Spanberger defeated Earle-Sears [185] in a landslide, winning by the widest margin for a Democrat since 1961. [6] Spanberger is scheduled to be sworn in as the 75th governor of Virginia and the state's first female governor on January 17, 2026. [186]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Abigail Spanberger | 1,976,857 | 57.58% | +8.94% | |
| Republican | Winsome Earle-Sears | 1,449,586 | 42.22% | −8.36% | |
| Write-in | 6,897 | 0.20% | +0.12% | ||
| Total votes | 3,433,340 | 100.00% | |||
| Registered electors | |||||
| Turnout | |||||
| Democratic gain from Republican | |||||
| Locality [188] | Winsome Earle-Sears Republican | Abigail Spanberger Democratic | Write-in Various | Margin | Total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Accomack | 7,129 | 54.57% | 5,925 | 45.35% | 10 | 0.08% | −1,204 | −9.22% | 13,064 |
| Albemarle | 16,480 | 29.48% | 39,322 | 70.35% | 93 | 0.17% | 22,842 | 40.87% | 55,895 |
| Alexandria | 10,424 | 16.59% | 52,230 | 83.11% | 190 | 0.30% | 41,806 | 66.52% | 62,844 |
| Alleghany | 4,011 | 69.14% | 1,779 | 30.67% | 11 | 0.19% | −2,232 | −38.48% | 5,801 |
| Amelia | 4,521 | 71.08% | 1,831 | 28.79% | 8 | 0.13% | −2,690 | −42.30% | 6,360 |
| Amherst | 8,811 | 67.13% | 4,294 | 32.72% | 20 | 0.15% | −4,517 | −34.42% | 13,125 |
| Appomattox | 5,609 | 75.94% | 1,765 | 23.90% | 12 | 0.16% | −3,844 | −52.04% | 7,386 |
| Arlington | 15,929 | 15.96% | 83,657 | 83.81% | 235 | 0.24% | 67,728 | 67.85% | 99,821 |
| Augusta | 24,612 | 71.98% | 9,522 | 27.85% | 60 | 0.18% | −15,090 | −44.13% | 34,194 |
| Bath | 1,421 | 74.05% | 493 | 25.69% | 5 | 0.26% | −928 | −48.36% | 1,919 |
| Bedford | 29,166 | 74.27% | 10,048 | 25.59% | 57 | 0.15% | −19,118 | −48.68% | 39,271 |
| Bland | 1,974 | 81.64% | 441 | 18.24% | 3 | 0.12% | −1,533 | −63.40% | 2,418 |
| Botetourt | 11,820 | 70.27% | 4,969 | 29.54% | 32 | 0.19% | −6,851 | −40.73% | 16,821 |
| Bristol | 3,090 | 64.96% | 1,660 | 34.90% | 7 | 0.15% | −1,430 | −30.06% | 4,757 |
| Brunswick | 2,591 | 43.66% | 3,338 | 56.25% | 5 | 0.08% | 747 | 12.59% | 5,934 |
| Buchanan | 4,434 | 81.91% | 971 | 17.94% | 8 | 0.15% | −3,463 | −63.98% | 5,413 |
| Buckingham | 3,586 | 59.22% | 2,456 | 40.56% | 13 | 0.21% | −1,130 | −18.66% | 6,055 |
| Buena Vista | 1,392 | 66.38% | 696 | 33.19% | 9 | 0.43% | −696 | −33.19% | 2,097 |
| Campbell | 16,878 | 73.25% | 6,130 | 26.60% | 34 | 0.15% | −10,748 | −46.65% | 23,042 |
| Caroline | 6,680 | 49.72% | 6,733 | 50.11% | 23 | 0.17% | 53 | 0.39% | 13,436 |
| Carroll | 8,889 | 78.33% | 2,433 | 21.44% | 26 | 0.23% | −6,456 | −56.89% | 11,348 |
| Charles City | 1,485 | 42.53% | 2,002 | 57.33% | 5 | 0.14% | 517 | 14.81% | 3,492 |
| Charlotte | 3,159 | 67.07% | 1,545 | 32.80% | 6 | 0.13% | −1,614 | −34.27% | 4,710 |
| Charlottesville | 2,056 | 10.88% | 16,799 | 88.93% | 35 | 0.19% | 14,743 | 78.05% | 18,890 |
| Chesapeake | 42,147 | 43.77% | 53,971 | 56.06% | 164 | 0.17% | 11,824 | 12.28% | 96,282 |
| Chesterfield | 70,021 | 40.97% | 100,595 | 58.86% | 294 | 0.17% | 30,574 | 17.89% | 170,910 |
| Clarke | 4,222 | 55.34% | 3,389 | 44.42% | 18 | 0.24% | −833 | −10.92% | 7,629 |
| Colonial Heights | 4,092 | 62.12% | 2,474 | 37.56% | 21 | 0.32% | −1,618 | −24.56% | 6,587 |
| Covington | 999 | 59.57% | 678 | 40.43% | 0 | 0.00% | −321 | −19.14% | 1,677 |
| Craig | 1,806 | 79.25% | 467 | 20.49% | 6 | 0.26% | −1,339 | −58.75% | 2,279 |
| Culpeper | 12,592 | 57.66% | 9,214 | 42.19% | 33 | 0.15% | −3,378 | −15.47% | 21,839 |
| Cumberland | 2,609 | 59.03% | 1,803 | 40.79% | 8 | 0.18% | −806 | −18.24% | 4,420 |
| Danville | 4,592 | 37.34% | 7,678 | 62.43% | 29 | 0.24% | 3,086 | 25.09% | 12,299 |
| Dickenson | 3,427 | 76.80% | 1,028 | 23.04% | 7 | 0.16% | −2,399 | −53.77% | 4,462 |
| Dinwiddie | 7,028 | 58.19% | 5,031 | 41.65% | 19 | 0.16% | −1,997 | −16.53% | 12,078 |
| Emporia | 544 | 32.65% | 1,119 | 67.17% | 3 | 0.18% | 575 | 34.51% | 1,666 |
| Essex | 2,572 | 52.82% | 2,289 | 47.01% | 8 | 0.16% | −283 | −5.81% | 4,869 |
| Fairfax City | 2,847 | 27.28% | 7,552 | 72.37% | 36 | 0.34% | 4,705 | 45.09% | 10,435 |
| Fairfax County | 116,053 | 25.95% | 329,977 | 73.78% | 1,222 | 0.27% | 213,924 | 47.83% | 447,252 |
| Falls Church | 1,181 | 15.54% | 6,407 | 84.30% | 12 | 0.16% | 5,226 | 68.76% | 7,600 |
| Fauquier | 19,894 | 57.55% | 14,610 | 42.27% | 62 | 0.18% | −5,284 | −15.29% | 34,566 |
| Floyd | 4,806 | 64.73% | 2,603 | 35.06% | 16 | 0.22% | −2,203 | −29.67% | 7,425 |
| Fluvanna | 6,718 | 49.95% | 6,712 | 49.91% | 19 | 0.14% | −6 | −0.04% | 13,449 |
| Franklin City | 1,084 | 36.93% | 1,849 | 63.00% | 2 | 0.07% | 765 | 26.06% | 2,935 |
| Franklin County | 16,317 | 70.37% | 6,836 | 29.48% | 36 | 0.16% | −9,481 | −40.89% | 23,189 |
| Frederick | 23,130 | 59.32% | 15,809 | 40.55% | 51 | 0.13% | −7,321 | −18.78% | 38,990 |
| Fredericksburg | 2,943 | 27.93% | 7,561 | 71.76% | 33 | 0.31% | 4,618 | 43.83% | 10,537 |
| Galax | 1,284 | 68.23% | 597 | 31.72% | 1 | 0.05% | −687 | −36.50% | 1,882 |
| Giles | 4,983 | 73.48% | 1,782 | 26.28% | 16 | 0.24% | −3,201 | −47.21% | 6,781 |
| Gloucester | 11,399 | 65.73% | 5,912 | 34.09% | 30 | 0.17% | −5,487 | −31.64% | 17,341 |
| Goochland | 9,726 | 56.91% | 7,339 | 42.95% | 24 | 0.14% | −2,387 | −13.97% | 17,089 |
| Grayson | 4,614 | 78.35% | 1,264 | 21.46% | 11 | 0.19% | −3,350 | −56.89% | 5,889 |
| Greene | 5,458 | 57.39% | 4,036 | 42.44% | 16 | 0.17% | −1,422 | −14.95% | 9,510 |
| Greensville | 1,427 | 42.76% | 1,902 | 57.00% | 8 | 0.24% | 475 | 14.23% | 3,337 |
| Halifax | 8,027 | 60.26% | 5,272 | 39.58% | 22 | 0.17% | −2,755 | −20.68% | 13,321 |
| Hampton | 12,103 | 25.58% | 35,129 | 74.23% | 91 | 0.19% | 23,026 | 48.66% | 47,323 |
| Hanover | 36,278 | 60.10% | 23,994 | 39.75% | 95 | 0.16% | −12,284 | −20.35% | 60,367 |
| Harrisonburg | 3,654 | 27.70% | 9,512 | 72.12% | 23 | 0.17% | 5,858 | 44.42% | 13,189 |
| Henrico | 45,627 | 30.53% | 103,559 | 69.30% | 260 | 0.17% | 57,932 | 38.76% | 149,446 |
| Henry | 11,150 | 63.71% | 6,320 | 36.11% | 30 | 0.17% | −4,830 | −27.60% | 17,500 |
| Highland | 831 | 69.60% | 362 | 30.32% | 1 | 0.08% | −469 | −39.28% | 1,194 |
| Hopewell | 2,610 | 39.10% | 4,052 | 60.70% | 13 | 0.19% | 1,442 | 21.60% | 6,675 |
| Isle of Wight | 10,931 | 56.95% | 8,227 | 42.86% | 37 | 0.19% | −2,704 | −14.09% | 19,195 |
| James City | 19,029 | 44.57% | 23,603 | 55.28% | 63 | 0.15% | 4,574 | 10.71% | 42,695 |
| King and Queen | 1,985 | 60.50% | 1,292 | 39.38% | 4 | 0.12% | −693 | −21.12% | 3,281 |
| King George | 6,909 | 59.33% | 4,716 | 40.50% | 20 | 0.17% | −2,193 | −18.83% | 11,645 |
| King William | 6,033 | 66.56% | 3,020 | 33.32% | 11 | 0.12% | −3,013 | −33.24% | 9,064 |
| Lancaster | 3,283 | 54.44% | 2,734 | 45.34% | 13 | 0.22% | −549 | −9.10% | 6,030 |
| Lee | 5,439 | 84.13% | 1,019 | 15.76% | 7 | 0.11% | −4,420 | −68.37% | 6,465 |
| Lexington | 686 | 31.66% | 1,475 | 68.07% | 6 | 0.28% | 789 | 36.41% | 2,167 |
| Loudoun | 59,278 | 35.22% | 108,594 | 64.52% | 444 | 0.26% | 49,316 | 29.30% | 168,316 |
| Louisa | 11,279 | 59.52% | 7,628 | 40.25% | 44 | 0.23% | −3,651 | −19.27% | 18,951 |
| Lunenburg | 2,682 | 59.61% | 1,806 | 40.14% | 11 | 0.24% | −876 | −19.47% | 4,499 |
| Lynchburg | 13,508 | 50.41% | 13,231 | 49.38% | 56 | 0.21% | −277 | −1.03% | 26,795 |
| Madison | 4,259 | 64.01% | 2,386 | 35.86% | 9 | 0.14% | −1,873 | −28.15% | 6,654 |
| Manassas | 4,036 | 34.42% | 7,671 | 65.42% | 18 | 0.15% | 3,635 | 31.00% | 11,725 |
| Manassas Park | 1,151 | 28.72% | 2,852 | 71.16% | 5 | 0.12% | 1,701 | 42.44% | 4,008 |
| Martinsville | 1,451 | 36.35% | 2,534 | 63.48% | 7 | 0.18% | 1,083 | 27.13% | 3,992 |
| Mathews | 3,242 | 67.51% | 1,555 | 32.38% | 5 | 0.10% | −1,687 | −35.13% | 4,802 |
| Mecklenburg | 7,151 | 60.50% | 4,657 | 39.40% | 11 | 0.09% | −2,494 | −21.10% | 11,819 |
| Middlesex | 3,473 | 61.44% | 2,174 | 38.46% | 6 | 0.11% | −1,299 | −22.98% | 5,653 |
| Montgomery | 15,228 | 41.46% | 21,428 | 58.34% | 76 | 0.21% | 6,200 | 16.88% | 36,732 |
| Nelson | 3,828 | 49.55% | 3,880 | 50.23% | 17 | 0.22% | 52 | 0.67% | 7,725 |
| New Kent | 8,804 | 63.28% | 5,087 | 36.56% | 22 | 0.16% | −3,717 | −26.72% | 13,913 |
| Newport News | 17,461 | 30.91% | 38,936 | 68.93% | 92 | 0.16% | 21,475 | 38.02% | 56,489 |
| Norfolk | 15,509 | 24.15% | 48,599 | 75.68% | 111 | 0.17% | 33,090 | 51.53% | 64,219 |
| Northampton | 2,469 | 44.59% | 3,060 | 55.26% | 8 | 0.14% | 591 | 10.67% | 5,537 |
| Northumberland | 4,132 | 60.47% | 2,685 | 39.29% | 16 | 0.23% | −1,447 | −21.18% | 6,833 |
| Norton | 721 | 68.34% | 332 | 31.47% | 2 | 0.19% | −389 | −36.87% | 1,055 |
| Nottoway | 3,122 | 57.91% | 2,258 | 41.88% | 11 | 0.20% | −864 | −16.03% | 5,391 |
| Orange | 9,938 | 57.34% | 7,361 | 42.47% | 33 | 0.19% | −2,577 | −14.87% | 17,332 |
| Page | 6,940 | 74.39% | 2,365 | 25.35% | 24 | 0.26% | −4,575 | −49.04% | 9,329 |
| Patrick | 5,119 | 77.42% | 1,488 | 22.50% | 5 | 0.08% | −3,631 | −54.92% | 6,612 |
| Petersburg | 1,124 | 11.29% | 8,811 | 88.46% | 25 | 0.25% | 7,687 | 77.18% | 9,960 |
| Pittsylvania | 17,439 | 70.46% | 7,272 | 29.38% | 38 | 0.15% | −10,167 | −41.08% | 24,749 |
| Poquoson | 4,384 | 70.01% | 1,862 | 29.73% | 16 | 0.26% | −2,522 | −40.27% | 6,262 |
| Portsmouth | 8,351 | 26.55% | 23,040 | 73.25% | 62 | 0.20% | 14,689 | 46.70% | 31,453 |
| Powhatan | 11,862 | 69.57% | 5,168 | 30.31% | 21 | 0.12% | −6,694 | −39.26% | 17,051 |
| Prince Edward | 3,668 | 49.20% | 3,767 | 50.53% | 20 | 0.27% | 99 | 1.33% | 7,455 |
| Prince George | 7,986 | 58.27% | 5,707 | 41.64% | 13 | 0.09% | −2,279 | −16.63% | 13,706 |
| Prince William | 54,309 | 32.74% | 111,198 | 67.03% | 381 | 0.23% | 56,889 | 34.29% | 165,888 |
| Pulaski | 8,607 | 68.55% | 3,927 | 31.28% | 22 | 0.18% | −4,680 | −37.27% | 12,556 |
| Radford | 2,050 | 43.68% | 2,632 | 56.08% | 11 | 0.23% | 582 | 12.40% | 4,693 |
| Rappahannock | 2,231 | 55.10% | 1,812 | 44.75% | 6 | 0.15% | −419 | −10.35% | 4,049 |
| Richmond City | 11,883 | 13.04% | 79,019 | 86.73% | 212 | 0.23% | 67,136 | 73.68% | 91,114 |
| Richmond County | 1,997 | 63.88% | 1,124 | 35.96% | 5 | 0.16% | −873 | −27.93% | 3,126 |
| Roanoke City | 10,153 | 32.82% | 20,700 | 66.91% | 83 | 0.27% | 10,547 | 34.09% | 30,936 |
| Roanoke County | 24,728 | 57.66% | 18,062 | 42.12% | 97 | 0.23% | −6,666 | −15.54% | 42,887 |
| Rockbridge | 6,599 | 64.93% | 3,557 | 35.00% | 7 | 0.07% | −3,042 | −29.93% | 10,163 |
| Rockingham | 24,498 | 67.68% | 11,622 | 32.11% | 76 | 0.21% | −12,876 | −35.57% | 36,196 |
| Russell | 7,268 | 81.13% | 1,673 | 18.68% | 17 | 0.19% | −5,595 | −62.46% | 8,958 |
| Salem | 5,282 | 55.81% | 4,150 | 43.85% | 32 | 0.34% | −1,132 | −11.96% | 9,464 |
| Scott | 6,103 | 83.00% | 1,235 | 16.80% | 15 | 0.20% | −4,868 | −66.20% | 7,353 |
| Shenandoah | 12,488 | 68.53% | 5,698 | 31.27% | 37 | 0.20% | −6,790 | −37.26% | 18,223 |
| Smyth | 7,712 | 76.90% | 2,298 | 22.92% | 18 | 0.18% | −5,414 | −53.99% | 10,028 |
| Southampton | 4,492 | 60.34% | 2,945 | 39.56% | 8 | 0.11% | −1,547 | −20.78% | 7,445 |
| Spotsylvania | 29,015 | 48.47% | 30,748 | 51.36% | 104 | 0.17% | 1,733 | 2.89% | 59,867 |
| Stafford | 27,774 | 43.94% | 35,327 | 55.88% | 115 | 0.18% | 7,553 | 11.95% | 63,216 |
| Staunton | 4,236 | 39.10% | 6,580 | 60.73% | 18 | 0.17% | 2,344 | 21.64% | 10,834 |
| Suffolk | 15,935 | 38.20% | 25,696 | 61.60% | 80 | 0.19% | 9,761 | 23.40% | 41,711 |
| Surry | 1,707 | 47.63% | 1,873 | 52.26% | 4 | 0.11% | 166 | 4.63% | 3,584 |
| Sussex | 1,802 | 46.91% | 2,035 | 52.98% | 4 | 0.10% | 233 | 6.07% | 3,841 |
| Tazewell | 10,407 | 82.10% | 2,248 | 17.73% | 21 | 0.17% | −8,159 | −64.37% | 12,676 |
| Virginia Beach | 75,013 | 44.22% | 94,339 | 55.62% | 269 | 0.16% | 19,326 | 11.39% | 169,621 |
| Warren | 10,433 | 64.29% | 5,757 | 35.47% | 39 | 0.24% | −4,676 | −28.81% | 16,229 |
| Washington | 15,614 | 74.21% | 5,382 | 25.58% | 43 | 0.20% | −10,232 | −48.63% | 21,039 |
| Waynesboro | 4,037 | 47.46% | 4,459 | 52.42% | 11 | 0.13% | 422 | 4.96% | 8,507 |
| Westmoreland | 4,396 | 54.02% | 3,733 | 45.88% | 8 | 0.10% | −663 | −8.15% | 8,137 |
| Williamsburg | 1,647 | 24.51% | 5,063 | 75.35% | 9 | 0.13% | 3,416 | 50.84% | 6,719 |
| Winchester | 3,485 | 39.52% | 5,318 | 60.30% | 16 | 0.18% | 1,833 | 20.78% | 8,819 |
| Wise | 8,744 | 79.15% | 2,281 | 20.65% | 22 | 0.20% | −6,463 | −58.50% | 11,047 |
| Wythe | 8,426 | 76.29% | 2,594 | 23.49% | 24 | 0.22% | −5,832 | −52.81% | 11,044 |
| York | 15,684 | 49.79% | 15,769 | 50.06% | 47 | 0.15% | 85 | 0.27% | 31,500 |
| Totals | 1,449,586 | 42.22% | 1,976,857 | 57.58% | 6,897 | 0.20% | 527,271 | 15.36% | 3,433,340 |
Spanberger won eight of 11 congressional districts, including two held by Republicans. [189]
| District | Earle-Sears | Spanberger | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 48.6% | 51.2% | Rob Wittman |
| 2nd | 46.1% | 53.7% | Jen Kiggans |
| 3rd | 27.9% | 71.9% | Bobby Scott |
| 4th | 29.2% | 70.6% | Jennifer McClellan |
| 5th | 53.5% | 46.3% | John McGuire |
| 6th | 58.2% | 41.6% | Ben Cline |
| 7th | 42.2% | 57.6% | Eugene Vindman |
| 8th | 19.6% | 80.1% | Don Beyer |
| 9th | 68.1% | 31.7% | Morgan Griffith |
| 10th | 39.6% | 60.1% | Suhas Subramanyam |
| 11th | 26.2% | 73.5% | James Walkinshaw |
Political analysts have described the election as a popularity indicator of the second presidency of Donald Trump in the state. [190] [191]
Spanberger's victory was attributed to anger in Northern Virginia over the mass layoffs of federal workers ordered by the Department of Government Efficiency led by Elon Musk as part of President Donald Trump's efforts to downsize the federal government. Additionally, many furloughed federal workers were energized by the ongoing federal government shutdown. Discontentment with the U.S. economy under Trump, which many Virginians blamed on his tariff policies, also played a factor in motivating Spanberger voters. [192]
Spanberger set a record for most votes received by a gubernatorial candidate in Virginia. She won the 1st congressional district, represented by Republican Rob Wittman since 2007, making her the first Democratic statewide candidate to win the district since 2008. Spanberger won every congressional district in the Tidewater Region (eastern Virginia), while Earle-Sears won every congressional district in the Upland South (western Virginia). Spanberger did best in Northern Virginia near the District of Columbia, while Earle-Sears did best in Appalachia near West Virginia. [193]
This is the first time since 1985 that a Democrat carried Spotsylvania County, a notable Republican stronghold, as well as Waynesboro City. Stafford County also flipped for the first time since 1985, though Harris won Stafford in 2024. Nelson County and Caroline County also voted Democratic for the first time since 2013. Earle-Sears narrowly retained Lynchburg, home to the evangelical Christian Liberty University, supported by a strong backing from white evangelical Christians, 80% of whom voted for her according to a CNN exit poll. [194] The city had narrowly flipped to Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election before returning to a more comfortable margin for Donald Trump in 2024. James City County voted Democratic for the first time since 2005, although it voted Democratic in 2020 and 2024.
Spanberger's closest victory was in York County (home to Yorktown, Virginia), which voted Democratic for the first time since 1965. York has not voted Democratic for president since 1964. Kamala Harris did win 46% in York in 2024, losing the county by 6%, the best performance in the county since 1964. [195]
With the exception of the 2013 election, Virginia has elected a governor of the opposite party of the sitting president of the United States in every election since 1977. [196] According to a CNN exit poll, Trump had just a 39% job approval rating among the general electorate in Virginia. Spanberger won 99% of Kamala Harris's voters and 7% of Trump's 2024 voters. [13]
| Demographic subgroup | Spanberger | Earle-Sears | % of total vote |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ideology | |||
| Liberals | 96 | 4 | 33 |
| Moderates | 69 | 31 | 33 |
| Conservatives | 10 | 90 | 35 |
| Party | |||
| Democrats | 99 | 1 | 36 |
| Republicans | 7 | 93 | 31 |
| Independents | 59 | 40 | 33 |
| Donald Trump job approval | |||
| Approve | 6 | 94 | 39 |
| Disapprove | 92 | 7 | 59 |
| Most important issue facing Virginia | |||
| Economy | 63 | 36 | 48 |
| Health care | 81 | 18 | 21 |
| Education | 55 | 45 | 11 |
| Immigration | 11 | 89 | 11 |
| 2024 presidential vote | |||
| Kamala Harris | 99 | 1 | 51 |
| Donald Trump | 7 | 93 | 42 |
| Another candidate | 61 | 36 | 2 |
| Did not vote | 61 | 39 | 3 |
| Gender | |||
| Men | 48 | 51 | 47 |
| Women | 65 | 35 | 53 |
| Income | |||
| $200,000 or more | 64 | 36 | 14 |
| $100,000-$199,999 | 51 | 48 | 28 |
| $50,000-$99,999 | 58 | 42 | 31 |
| Less than $50,000 | 63 | 37 | 26 |
| Race/ethnicity | |||
| White | 47 | 53 | 71 |
| Asian | 80 | 20 | 4 |
| Latino | 67 | 33 | 5 |
| Black | 93 | 7 | 16 |
| White born-again or evangelical Christian? | |||
| Yes | 20 | 80 | 28 |
| No | 71 | 29 | 72 |
| Race by gender | |||
| White men | 38 | 61 | 34 |
| White women | 54 | 46 | 36 |
| Black men | 89 | 11 | 7 |
| Black women | 96 | 3 | 9 |
| Latino men | 53 | 47 | 2 |
| Latina women | 78 | 22 | 2 |
| All other voters | 73 | 27 | 9 |
| Age | |||
| 18–29 years old | 70 | 29 | 13 |
| 30–44 years old | 62 | 38 | 20 |
| 45-64 years old | 55 | 45 | 35 |
| 65 and older | 51 | 49 | 32 |
| Area type | |||
| Urban | 66 | 34 | 19 |
| Suburban | 59 | 41 | 57 |
| Rural | 46 | 54 | 24 |
| Education | |||
| College graduate | 63 | 36 | 52 |
| No college degree | 50 | 49 | 48 |
| Education by race | |||
| White college graduates | 57 | 43 | 38 |
| Non-white college graduates | 80 | 19 | 14 |
| Whites without college | 34 | 66 | 33 |
| Non-whites without college | 85 | 15 | 15 |
| Education by gender and race | |||
| White women with college degrees | 65 | 35 | 20 |
| White women without college degrees | 39 | 60 | 16 |
| White men with college degrees | 48 | 52 | 18 |
| White men without college degrees | 29 | 71 | 17 |
| Voters of color | 83 | 17 | 30 |
| Educational attainment | |||
| Advanced degree | 68 | 32 | 23 |
| Bachelor's degree | 60 | 40 | 29 |
| Associate's degree | 53 | 47 | 10 |
| Some college | 55 | 45 | 17 |
| Never attended college | 46 | 54 | 21 |
Partisan clients
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link){{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)The off-year races are often a bellwether for the national mood a year before the midterms.
{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link){{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)Spanberger consistently retained Kamala Harris voters across the state. Earle-Sears' vote was inconsistent; she did well at retaining more affluent Donald Trump voters but saw many working-class Republican voters stay home.
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link){{cite news}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link){{cite news}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link){{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link){{cite news}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link){{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link){{cite news}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link){{cite news}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link){{cite news}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link){{cite news}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)Congresswoman Jennifer McClellan and Michigan Senator Elissa Slotkin joined her.
Official campaign websites