2025 Virginia gubernatorial election

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2025 Virginia gubernatorial election
Flag of Virginia.svg
  2021 November 4, 20252029 
  Winsome Sears portrait, 2022 (cropped).jpg Rep. Abigail Spanberger - 118th Congress (3x4 cropped).jpg
Nominee Winsome Earle-Sears Abigail Spanberger
Party Republican Democratic

Incumbent Governor

Glenn Youngkin
Republican



The 2025 Virginia gubernatorial election will be held on November 4, 2025, to elect the governor of Virginia. Incumbent Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin is ineligible to run for re-election, as the Constitution of Virginia prohibits the state's governors from serving consecutive terms.

Contents

Former U.S. Representative Abigail Spanberger is the Democratic nominee, [1] and Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears is the Republican nominee. If elected, Earle-Sears would become the first black female governor in U.S. history. [2] [3] Both Spanberger and Earle-Sears won their respective parties' nominations unopposed. Whoever wins the general election will be sworn in as the 75th governor of Virginia on January 17, 2026. This is the first gubernatorial election in Virginia in which both major party nominees are female. Virginia is one of 18 states that has never had a female governor. [3]

This is the only Republican-held governorship up for election in 2025. Democrat Kamala Harris won the state in the 2024 presidential election by 5.8%. [4]

Political analysts consider the election as being a popularity indicator of Donald Trump's second presidency in the state. [5] [6] With the exception of 2013 (which saw a strong performance by a third-party candidate), Virginia has elected a governor of the opposite party of the sitting president of the United States in every election since 1977.

Background

Virginia is considered to be a moderately blue state at the federal level, with Kamala Harris carrying Virginia by about six percentage points in the 2024 presidential election, and the last time a Republican won a federal statewide race was in the 2004 presidential election. Democrats control both U.S. Senate seats and the minimum majority in both houses of the Virginia General Assembly. With the May 2025 death of Democratic Representative Gerry Connolly, Virginia's 11th congressional district seat is currently vacant; neither Democrats nor Republicans hold a majority in Virginia's congressional delegation, which as of May 21, 2025, consists of five Democrats, five Republicans, and the vacant seat, which is considered a reliably blue district. [7] However, statewide offices tend to be more competitive as Republicans flipped all three statewide constitutional offices in the 2021 elections, all of which are up for election in 2025. [8] [9] [10]

Donald Trump's efforts to shrink the federal workforce is considered to be a potential issue in the election, given that many federal workers live in Northern Virginia. [11] A July 2025 Virginia Commonwealth University poll found that the most important issues for voters in the campaign were the cost of living (29%), immigration (14%) and abortion (14%). [12]

Republican primary

Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears was initially viewed as the presumptive Republican nominee for governor. [13] After poor initial polling, and growing dissatisfaction with the lieutenant governor in factions of the party, Earle-Sears drew two challengers: former state senator Amanda Chase, and former state delegate Dave LaRock. Both challengers positioned themselves as more loyal to President Donald Trump. [14] [15] Ultimately, neither of them gathered the required signatures to be on the ballot, and Earle-Sears was nominated unopposed. [16]

Candidates

Nominee

Failed to qualify

Declined

Endorsements

Amanda Chase (disqualified)

State senators

Polling

Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Jason
Miyares
Winsome
Earle-Sears
Undecided
Cygnal (R) [22] October 27–29, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%12%48%40%
Cygnal (R) [23] March 13–14, 2024510 (LV)± 4.3%16%44%41%
Differentiators Data [24] February 21–24, 2023500 (LV)± 4.5%17%48%35%

Fundraising

Primary campaign finance activity through March 31, 2025
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Winsome Earle-Sears$5,677,456$1,630,867$4,046,590
Amanda Chase (failed to qualify)$34,835$51,204$1,538
Dave LaRock (failed to qualify)$26,874$25,813$1,060
Source: Virginia Public Access Project [25]

Results

Republican primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Winsome Earle-Sears Unopposed
Total votes100.0

Democratic primary

Abigail Spanberger at a rally with attorney general nominee Jay Jones (left) and lieutenant governor nominee Ghazala Hashmi in Fairfax Jay Jones, Ghazala Hashmi and Abigail Spanberger at a bus rally in Fairfax City.png
Abigail Spanberger at a rally with attorney general nominee Jay Jones (left) and lieutenant governor nominee Ghazala Hashmi in Fairfax

Former U.S. representative Abigail Spanberger won the nomination unopposed after her only challenger, former Richmond mayor Levar Stoney, withdrew in April 2024. Stoney, seeking to avoid a complicated primary, decided to instead run for lieutenant governor. U.S. representative Bobby Scott also publicly considered a bid, but did not file a candidacy. [26]

Candidates

Nominee

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Bobby Scott (declined)

State legislators

Levar Stoney (withdrawn)

State officials

State legislators

Local officials

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Abigail
Spanberger
Levar
Stoney
Undecided
April 22, 2024Stoney withdraws from the race
Public Policy Polling (D) [34] [A] March 25–26, 2024734 (LV)44%11%45%
Christopher Newport University [35] January 11–16, 20241000 (RV)± 3.7%52%8%40%

Fundraising

Primary campaign finance activity through March 31, 2025
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Abigail Spanberger$16,301,998$5,297,212$11,004,790
Source: Virginia Public Access Project [25]

Results

Democratic primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Abigail Spanberger Unopposed
Total votes100.0

General election

Campaign

In mid-July, Earle-Sears changed campaign managers after trailing Spanberger in fundraising and polling. [36] On August 21, an opponent of Earle-Sears held up a sign outside her speech at an Arlington County School Board meeting stating "Hey Winsome, if trans can't share your bathroom, then Blacks can't share my water fountain", which received widespread attention and was condemned by both Earle-Sears and Spanberger. [37] [38]

Debates

There will be at least one televised debate, on October 9 and hosted by Norfolk State University. [39]

2025 Virginia gubernatorial debates
No.DateHostModeratorLink Republican Democratic
Key:
 P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited  W  Withdrawn
Earle-SearsSpanberger
1October 9, 2025 WAVY-TV
Norfolk State University
TBDII


Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [40] Lean D (flip)May 1, 2025
Inside Elections [41] Lean D (flip)August 28, 2025
Sabato's Crystal Ball [42] Lean D (flip)April 30, 2025
Race to the WH [43] Likely D (flip)June 30, 2025
State Navigate [44] Solid D (flip)August 22, 2025

Endorsements

Winsome Earle-Sears (R)
Executive branch officials
U.S. representatives
Statewide officials
State legislators
Local officials
Organizations
Abigail Spanberger (D)

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Abigail
Spanberger (D)
Winsome
Earle-Sears (R)
Other/Undecided
[b]
Margin
RealClearPolitics [80] February 26 – August 26, 2025August 28, 202548.2%41.4%10.4%Spanberger +6.8%
Decision Desk HQ [81] January 6 – August 26, 2025August 30, 202546.3%38.4%15.3%Spanberger +7.9%
Race to the WH [82] January 6 – August 26, 2025August 28, 202548.8%40.9%10.3%Spanberger +7.9%
Average47.8%40.2%12%Spanberger +7.6%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Winsome
Earle-Sears (R)
Abigail
Spanberger (D)
OtherUndecided
co/efficient (R) [83] August 23–26, 20251,025 (LV)± 3.1%43%48%3% [c] 7%
Roanoke College [84] [85] August 11–15, 2025702 (LV)± 4.3%39%46%1% [d] 14%
Wick Insights [86] July 9–11, 20251,000 (LV)± 3.0%40%50%2% [e] 8%
Virginia Commonwealth University [87] June 19 – July 3, 2025806 (A)± 4.7%37%49%2% [f] 12%
co/efficient (R) [88] [B] June 8–10, 20251,127 (LV)± 3.1%43%46%2% [e] 9%
Roanoke College [89] [90] May 12–19, 2025609 (RV)± 5.3%26%43%3% [g] 28%
Pantheon Insight/HarrisX [91] [C] May 9–13, 20251,000 (LV)± 3.1%48%52%
45%48%7% [h]
Cygnal (R) [92] February 26–28, 2025600 (LV)± 4.0%40%46%14%
Roanoke College [93] February 17–20, 2025690 (RV)± 4.7%24%39%4% [i] 33%
co/efficient (R) [94] [D] January 18–20, 2025867 (LV)± 3.3%40%40%5% [j] 15%
Virginia Commonwealth University [95] December 18, 2024 – January 15, 2025806 (A)± 4.7%34%44%5% [k] 17%
Christopher Newport University [96] January 6–13, 2025806 (RV)± 3.6%39%44%6% [l] 12%
Emerson College [97] [E] January 6–8, 20251,000 (RV)± 3.0%41%42%4% [i] 13%
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy [98] December 15–19, 2024625 (RV)± 4.0%44%47%9%
Research America Inc. [99] [F] September 3–9, 20241,000 (A)± 3.1%39%39%10% [m] 12%
co/efficient (R) [100] [B] September 7–10, 2023834 (LV)± 3.4%26%27%47%
Hypothetical polling

Winsome Earle-Sears vs. Bobby Scott

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Winsome
Earle-Sears (R)
Bobby
Scott (D)
Undecided
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy [98] December 15–19, 2024625 (RV)± 4.0%46%44%10%

Jason Miyares vs. Abigail Spanberger

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Jason
Miyares (R)
Abigail
Spanberger (D)
Undecided
Research America Inc. [99] [F] September 3–9, 20241,000 (A)± 3.1%39%40%12%
co/efficient (R) [100] [B] September 7–10, 2023834 (LV)± 3.4%22%26%52%

Results

2025 Virginia gubernatorial election [101]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Winsome Earle-Sears
Democratic Abigail Spanberger
Write-in
Total votes
Turnout
Registered electors

See also

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  3. Donna Charles with 3%
  4. "Some other candidate" with 1%
  5. 1 2 Donna Charles with 2%
  6. "Wouldn't vote" with 1%; "Someone else" with 1%
  7. "Some other candidate" with 3%
  8. Denver Riggleman with 7%
  9. 1 2 "Someone else" with 4%
  10. "Someone else" with 5%
  11. "Wouldn't vote" with 4%; "Someone else" with 1%
  12. "Someone else" with 2%. "Don't know/Refused" with 4%
  13. "None / Would not vote" with 5%; "Other candidate" with 4%; "Refused" with 1%

Partisan clients

  1. Poll sponsored by Stoney's campaign
  2. 1 2 3 Poll sponsored by Founders Insight
  3. Poll sponsored by Virginia FREE
  4. Poll sponsored by the Northern Virginia Republican Business Forum
  5. Poll sponsored by The Hill
  6. 1 2 Poll sponsored by the University of Mary Washington

References

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Official campaign websites