![]() | |||||||||||
| |||||||||||
| |||||||||||
|
Elections in Virginia |
---|
![]() |
The 2025 Virginia gubernatorial election will be held on November 4, 2025, to elect the governor of Virginia. The incumbent Republican governor, Glenn Youngkin, is ineligible to run for re-election, as the Constitution of Virginia prohibits its governors from serving consecutive terms. The in-person early voting period runs from September 19 to November 1, 2025. [1]
Former U.S. Representative Abigail Spanberger is the Democratic nominee, [2] and Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears is the Republican nominee. If elected, Earle-Sears would become the first Jamaican-born female governor in U.S. history. [3] [4] Both Spanberger and Earle-Sears won their respective parties' nominations unopposed. Whoever wins the general election will be sworn in as the 75th governor of Virginia on January 17, 2026. This is the first gubernatorial election in Virginia in which both major party nominees are female. Virginia is one of eighteen states that have never had a female governor. [4]
This is the only Republican-held governorship up for election in 2025. Democrat Kamala Harris won the state in the 2024 presidential election by 5.8%. [5] Political analysts have described the election as a popularity indicator of Donald Trump's second presidency in the state. [6] [7] With the exception of 2013, Virginia has elected a governor of the opposite party of the sitting president of the United States in every election since 1977.
Virginia is considered to be a moderately "blue" state at the federal level, which was carried by Kamala Harris by about six percentage points in the 2024 presidential election, and the last time a Republican won a federal statewide race was in the 2004 presidential election. Democrats control both U.S. Senate seats and the minimum majority in both houses of the Virginia General Assembly. With the May 2025 death of Democratic Representative Gerry Connolly, Virginia's 11th congressional district seat was vacant until James Walkinshaw won the September 9th special election, giving Democrats control a majority of Virginia's house of representative seats. [8] However, statewide offices tend to be more competitive as Republicans flipped all three statewide constitutional offices in the 2021 elections, all of which are up for election in 2025. [9] [10] [11]
Donald Trump's efforts to shrink the federal workforce is considered to be a potential issue in the election, given that many federal workers live in Northern Virginia. [12] A July 2025 Virginia Commonwealth University poll found that the most important issues for voters in the campaign were the cost of living (29%), immigration (14%) and abortion (14%). [13] Most polls, analysts and ratings show Spanberger to be the favorite to win.
Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears was initially viewed as the presumptive Republican nominee for governor. [14] After poor initial polling, and growing dissatisfaction with the lieutenant governor in factions of the party, Earle-Sears drew two challengers: former state senator Amanda Chase, and former state delegate Dave LaRock. Both challengers positioned themselves as more loyal to President Donald Trump. [15] [16] Ultimately, neither of them gathered the required signatures to be on the ballot, and Earle-Sears was nominated unopposed. [17]
State senators
Primary campaign finance activity through March 31, 2025 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Winsome Earle-Sears | $5,677,456 | $1,630,867 | $4,046,590 |
Amanda Chase (failed to qualify) | $34,835 | $51,204 | $1,538 |
Dave LaRock (failed to qualify) | $26,874 | $25,813 | $1,060 |
Source: Virginia Public Access Project [26] |
Former U.S. representative Abigail Spanberger won the nomination unopposed after her only challenger, former Richmond mayor Levar Stoney, withdrew in April 2024. Stoney, seeking to avoid a complicated primary, decided to instead run for lieutenant governor. U.S. representative Bobby Scott also publicly considered a bid, but did not file a candidacy. [27]
State legislators
State officials
State legislators
Local officials
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [a] | Margin of error | Abigail Spanberger | Levar Stoney | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Stoney withdraws from the race | ||||||
Public Policy Polling (D) [35] [A] | March 25–26, 2024 | 734 (LV) | — | 44% | 11% | 45% |
Christopher Newport University [36] | January 11–16, 2024 | 1000 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 52% | 8% | 40% |
Primary campaign finance activity through March 31, 2025 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Abigail Spanberger | $16,301,998 | $5,297,212 | $11,004,790 |
Source: Virginia Public Access Project [26] |
![]() |
In mid-July, Earle-Sears changed campaign managers after trailing Spanberger in fundraising and polling. [38] On August 21, an opponent of Earle-Sears held up a sign outside her speech at an Arlington County School Board meeting stating "Hey Winsome, if trans [ sic ] can't share your bathroom, then Blacks can't share my water fountain", which received widespread attention and was condemned by both Earle-Sears and Spanberger. [39] [40]
The impact of Department of Government Efficiency and Trump's 2025 United States federal mass layoffs, reinforced the economy as the top issue for voters, particularly during the October federal government shutdown. [41] [42] During an interview on September 30th with Meet the Press, Earle-Sears did not answer whether she would ask Trump not to fire anymore federal workers. [43]
In October 2025, following messages revealed by the National Review of Jay Jones encouraging of political violence towards Todd Gilbert, Spanberger and Ghazala Hashmi called for Jones to apologize and take full responsibility for his messages. Governor Glenn Youngkin called for both of them to call for Jay Jones to step down as a candidate. Both have, as of October 14, refused to do so. Earle-Sears spent $1 million dollars on ads in the wake of the scandal tying Jones to Spanberger. [44] [45]
Throughout the campaign, Earle-Sears has mostly ran campaign attack ads on Spanberger on transgender issues, replicating the attack ads against Kamala Harris for "being for they/them" in the 2024 United States presidential election, despite top election issues being the economy, affordability, threats against democracy and federal workforce. [46] [47]
Spanberger and Earle-Sears met on October 9, 2025 at Norfolk State University for a televised debate. [48] Topics discussed during the debate included the Virginia car tax, text messages sent by Jay Jones, the federal government shutdown, affordability, energy and data centers, parents' roles in education, policies relating to transgender students in K-12 schools, reproductive rights, and policies related to marijuana. [49] During the debate, Sears pressed on Spanberger to call for Jones to exit the race and whether she still endorses Jones. [50] When asked on whether she would tell Trump to reopen the government, Sears accused Spanberger of "politicizing" the 2025 federal mass firings by the Trump administration. Spanberger referenced Sears comments on same sex marriage stating she is "morally opposed" to it and that same sex couples should not be allowed to marry, in response Sears stated "that's not discrimination". [50] [51]
No. | Date | Host | Moderators | Link | Republican | Democratic |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn | ||||||
Earle-Sears | Spanberger | |||||
1 | October 9, 2025 | WAVY-TV Norfolk State University | Deanna Albrittin Tom Schaad | [52] | P | P |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report [53] | Likely D (flip) | September 11, 2025 |
Inside Elections [54] | Lean D (flip) | August 28, 2025 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [55] | Likely D (flip) | September 4, 2025 |
Race to the WH [56] | Likely D (flip) | September 2, 2025 |
State Navigate [57] | Solid D (flip) | August 22, 2025 |
Aggregate polls
Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Abigail Spanberger (D) | Winsome Earle-Sears (R) | Other/Undecided [c] | Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RealClearPolitics [104] | September 29 – October 15, 2025 | October 16, 2025 | 50.3% | 43.8% | 5.9% | Spanberger +6.5% |
Decision Desk HQ [105] | through October 15, 2025 | October 16, 2025 | 49.2% | 44.7% | 6.1% | Spanberger +4.5% |
Race to the WH [106] | through October 16, 2025 | October 16, 2025 | 51.0% | 43.0% | 6.0% | Spanberger +8.0% |
Average | 50.2% | 43.8% | 6.0% | Spanberger +6.4% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [a] | Margin of error | Winsome Earle-Sears (R) | Abigail Spanberger (D) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Trafalgar Group (R)/InsiderAdvantage (R) [107] | October 13–15, 2025 | 1,039 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 45% | 47% | 1% [d] | 6% |
The Trafalgar Group (R) [108] | October 8–10, 2025 | 1,034 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 45% | 48% | 2% [e] | 6% |
Public Policy Polling (D) [109] [f] | October 7–8, 2025 | 558 (RV) | – | 43% | 52% | – | 5% |
Cygnal (R) [110] | October 6–7, 2025 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 49% | – | 6% |
Christopher Newport University [111] | September 29 – October 1, 2025 | 805 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 42% | 52% | – | 6% |
The Trafalgar Group (R) [112] | September 29 – October 1, 2025 | 1,034 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 42% | 47% | 2% [e] | 9% |
Emerson College [113] | September 28–29, 2025 | 725 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 42% | 52% | – | 5% |
The Washington Post/Schar School [114] | September 25–29, 2025 | 1,002 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 43% | 55% | 1% [g] | 2% |
1,002 (RV) | 40% | 53% | 4% [h] | 3% | |||
A2 Insights [115] | September 16–28, 2025 | 771 (LV) | – | 45% | 48% | 1% [i] | 6% |
co/efficient (R) [116] | September 22–23, 2025 | 1,024 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 43% | 49% | 1% [d] | 7% |
OnMessage Inc. (R) [117] | September 15–18, 2025 | 800 (V) | ± 3.5% | 45% | 50% | – | 5% |
Christopher Newport University [118] | September 8–14, 2025 | 808 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 40% | 52% | – | 8% |
Cygnal (R) [110] | September 7, 2025 | – (V) | – | 42% | 50% | – | 8% |
Pulse Decision Science (R) [119] [B] | September 3–5, 2025 | 512 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 43% | 48% | 1% [d] | 8% |
SoCal Strategies (R) [120] [C] | August 31–September 1, 2025 | 700 (LV) | – | 41% | 53% | – | 6% |
Virginia Commonwealth University [121] | August 18–28, 2025 | 764 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 40% | 49% | 2% [j] | 11% |
co/efficient (R) [122] | August 23–26, 2025 | 1,025 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 43% | 48% | 3% [k] | 7% |
Roanoke College [123] [124] | August 11–15, 2025 | 702 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 39% | 46% | 1% [l] | 14% |
Wick Insights [125] | July 9–11, 2025 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 50% | 2% [e] | 8% |
American Directions Research Group/AARP [126] | June 25 – July 8, 2025 | 1,001 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 34% | 49% | 8% [m] | 9% |
Virginia Commonwealth University [127] | June 19–July 3, 2025 | 806 (A) | ± 4.7% | 37% | 49% | 2% [j] | 12% |
co/efficient (R) [128] [D] | June 8–10, 2025 | 1,127 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 43% | 46% | 2% [e] | 9% |
Roanoke College [129] [130] | May 12–19, 2025 | 609 (RV) | ± 5.3% | 26% | 43% | 3% [n] | 28% |
Pantheon Insight/HarrisX [131] [E] | May 9–13, 2025 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 48% | 52% | – | – |
45% | 48% | 7% [o] | – | ||||
Cygnal (R) [132] | February 26–28, 2025 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 40% | 46% | – | 14% |
Roanoke College [133] | February 17–20, 2025 | 690 (RV) | ± 4.7% | 24% | 39% | 4% [p] | 33% |
co/efficient (R) [134] [F] | January 18–20, 2025 | 867 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 40% | 40% | 5% [q] | 15% |
Virginia Commonwealth University [135] | December 18, 2024 – January 15, 2025 | 806 (A) | ± 4.7% | 34% | 44% | 5% [r] | 17% |
Christopher Newport University [136] | January 6–13, 2025 | 806 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 39% | 44% | 6% [s] | 12% |
Emerson College [137] [G] | January 6–8, 2025 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 42% | 4% [p] | 13% |
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy [138] | December 15–19, 2024 | 625 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 47% | – | 9% |
Research America Inc. [139] [H] | September 3–9, 2024 | 1,000 (A) | ± 3.1% | 39% | 39% | 10% [t] | 12% |
co/efficient (R) [140] [D] | September 7–10, 2023 | 834 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 26% | 27% | – | 47% |
Winsome Earle-Sears vs. Bobby Scott
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Winsome Earle-Sears (R) | Bobby Scott (D) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy [138] | December 15–19, 2024 | 625 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 44% | 10% |
Jason Miyares vs. Abigail Spanberger
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [a] | Margin of error | Jason Miyares (R) | Abigail Spanberger (D) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Research America Inc. [139] [H] | September 3–9, 2024 | 1,000 (A) | ± 3.1% | 39% | 40% | 12% |
co/efficient (R) [140] [D] | September 7–10, 2023 | 834 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 22% | 26% | 52% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Winsome Earle-Sears | ||||
Democratic | Abigail Spanberger | ||||
Write-in | |||||
Total votes | |||||
Registered electors | |||||
Turnout |
Partisan clients
The off-year races are often a bellwether for the national mood a year before the midterms.
{{cite web}}
: CS1 maint: url-status (link){{cite web}}
: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)"I've supported Abigail since the day she [announced] and she's the candidate out there right now and we're gonna make sure we win this seat", Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) said.
Official campaign websites